transportation revenue forecast council - washington · 2019-12-11 · overall transportation...

Adopted 9-20-17 1

Transportation Revenue Forecast Council

September 2017 Transportation Economic

and Revenue Forecasts

Volume I: Summary

Adopted 9-20-17 2

Washington Transportation Economic and Revenue Forecast September 2017 Forecast

Summary Report (Volume I) Forecast Overview 3 Economic Variables Forecast 7 Motor Fuel Price Forecast 8 Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax Forecast 13 Motor Vehicle Revenue (Licenses, Permits and Fees) 13 Driver Related Revenues Forecasts 14 Other Transportation Related Revenue Forecasts 15 Ferry Ridership and Revenue 16 Toll Revenue 17 Highway Federal Funds Revenue 26 Public Transportation Federal Funds Revenue 27 Washington State Ferries Federal Funds Revenue 28 Vehicle Miles Traveled Forecast 29 Forecast Contacts 31 Appendix 2015 Transportation Revenue Package Current Forecast

32 33

Forecast Tables (Volume II) Motor Vehicle Fuel 3 Motor Vehicle Related Revenue Forecast (Licenses, Permits and Fees) 24 Driver Related Revenue Forecasts 46 Other Transportation Related Revenue Forecasts 56 Vehicle Sales and Use Tax 56 Rental Car Tax 56 Business and Other Revenue 56 Aeronautics Taxes and Fees 56 Washington State Ferries Ridership and Revenue Forecast 65 Toll Operations and Revenue Forecasts 71 Federal Funds Forecast 83

Alternate Forecast Scenarios (Volume III) Vehicle Miles Traveled Forecast Alternate Ferry Forecast

3 8

Adopted 9-20-17 3

Preface Washington law mandates the preparation, adoption of economic, and revenue forecasts. The organizations primarily responsible for revenue forecasts are the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council and the Office of Financial Management. The Office of Financial Management has the statutory responsibility to prepare and adopt those forecasts not made by the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (RCW 43.88.020). The Office of Financial Management carries out its forecast responsibilities for transportation revenues through the Transportation Revenue Forecast Council. Each quarter, technical staff of the Department of Licensing, Department of Transportation, Washington State Patrol and the Office of Forecast Council produce forecasts. The revenue forecasts agreed upon by the Transportation Revenue Forecast Council members become the official estimated revenues under RCW 43.88.020 21.

Forecast Overview

Here are key conclusions from the September 2017 transportation revenue forecast.

September 2017 transportation forecast of revenues: $6.349 billion for the current biennium, which represents an increase of 9.5% over the prior 2015-17 biennium of $5.796 billion.

Overall transportation revenue is down forecast to forecast in the 2015-17 biennium, by $2.25 million or 0.04% and up $16.3 million or 0.26% in the current biennium. The largest share of the increase in the current biennium is due to higher ferry revenue forecasts and a little higher fuel tax revenue. Other revenue sources like vehicle sales tax and licenses, permits and fee revenue are up about a $1 million each biennium. There are a few revenue sources which are down in the current biennium like driver related fees, business related revenue and rental car taxes.

For the 10-year forecast horizon, total revenues are projected to be $33.45 billion, which is up by $177.8 million (0.5%) from June due primarily to ferry revenue, licenses permits and fee revenue and motor vehicle fuel tax collection projections in the current and future biennium.

New projections of real personal income are upward revisions from the last forecast in terms of growth rates throughout the forecast horizon. Employment projections are up also throughout the forecast horizon from the last forecast. Retail gas and diesel prices are down slightly in the near-term from the June forecast. The current B5 biodiesel price forecast for ferries is higher in the near-term than the last forecast throughout the forecast horizon.

The change in fuel tax revenue is up by $4.8 million in the 2015-17 biennium and up $2 million from the last forecast in the current biennium. This is due to our collections coming in slightly higher for motor fuel taxes and a little higher for diesel tax projection in June. Over the next 10 years, fuel tax collections are anticipated to be higher by $27 million.

The licenses, permits and fee revenue is a minor change from the June forecast for the 2015-17

biennium. For the current biennium, licenses permits and fee revenue also are up $1 million or 0.08%. Over the next 10 years, the forecast for license, permits and fee revenue is higher by $49.4 million due to the higher economic variables in September than the June forecast projections.

The ferry forecast is up by $1.3 million in the 2015-17 biennium due to higher actuals in FY 2017. In the current biennium, the ferry revenue forecast is higher by $14.2 million or 3.6% due to the higher economic variables forecasts than the last projections and a ferry fare rate increase incorporated into the current forecast. Over the next 10 years, ferry revenue is anticipated to be higher than the last forecast by 79.35 million or 3.9%.

September 2017 Transportation Forecast Overview

Adopted 9-20-17 4

In the current fiscal year, total transportation revenues are anticipated to be $3.153 billion, which is a 1.8% increase annually. This increase is due minimal growth in revenue sources like fuel tax, toll, ferry and LPF fee increases. Overall, during the next 10-year horizon, transportation revenues are projected to be $33.45 billion and $177.9 million or 0.53% higher than the projections in June with an average annual growth rate of 1.3% beginning in the current fiscal year.

Figure 1: Total Transportation Revenues Comparison September vs. June vs. March 2017 forecasts millions of dollars

Figure 2: Revenue by Source 2017-19 biennium ($6.35 billion)

Adopted 9-20-17 5

Washington’s transportation revenues come from numerous taxes, fees, permits, tolls, and other revenues. Revenues forecasted each quarter include the sources contained in Figure 2. This pie graph reveals the anticipated share of each state revenue source to the total transportation revenues for the 2017-19 biennium, ($6.35 billion). Gasoline fuel taxes comprise the largest share at 45.9%. With the addition of diesel fuel taxes, all motor vehicle fuel taxes comprise 56.4% of all revenues. Licenses, permits, and fee revenues comprise the second largest share at 22.9%. The three largest revenue sources are projected to consist of 79.3% of revenues in the 2017-19 biennium. The remaining 20.7% consists of ferry fares, toll revenue, driver related revenue and other transportation related revenue.

Figure 3: Forecast to Forecast Biennium Comparison of All Transportation Revenues September 2017 forecast - 10-year period

† Ferry Fares plus non-farebox revenue ‡ Business/Other Revenues net of amounts transferred to General Fund in the forecast. § 167 HOT lanes is a pilot program that is currently scheduled to sunset June 30, 2019

As Figure 3 indicates, in the current biennium, June’s transportation revenues are projected at $5.795 billion for the 2015-17 biennium which is down a little $2.25 million from June. In the current biennium, transportation revenues are anticipated to be $6.35 billion which is up $16.3 million or 0.26% from the last projections. Ferry fare revenue is up the most by $14.17 million or 3.6% from the last forecast in the current biennium. In addition to ferry revenue, vehicle sales tax, licenses, permits and fees and fuel tax collections are also anticipated to be higher. Over the 10-year forecast horizon (2017-2027), the revenue forecast for September is $33.45 billion which is higher than $177.8 million or 0.5% from the last forecast.

Forecast Chg from Percent ForecastForecastChg from Percent Forecast Chg from Percent

Sep-17 Jun-17 Change Sep-17 Jun-17 Change Sep-17 Jun-17 Change

Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax Collections 3,276.98 4.79 0.15% 3,584.90 2.14 0.06% 18,390.08 26.90 0.15%

Licenses, Permits and Fees 1,277.48 (7.44) -0.58% 1,451.01 1.14 0.08% 8,023.89 49.44 0.62%

Ferry Revenue† 377.23 1.30 0.34% 404.53 14.17 3.63% 2,119.06 79.35 3.89%

Toll Revenue § 365.97 0.00 0.00% 408.97 0.00 0.00% 2,281.93 0.00 0.00%

Aviation Revenues 5.35 0.04 0.73% 7.12 0.05 0.73% 37.20 0.25 0.67%

Rental Car Tax 64.38 (0.08) -0.12% 67.58 (0.43) -0.64% 367.22 (2.58) -0.70%

Vehicle Sales Tax 93.87 0.20 0.21% 102.47 1.05 1.03% 554.73 4.78 0.87%

Driver-Related Fees 305.09 (1.53) -0.50% 289.68 (1.43) -0.49% 1,512.67 10.28 0.68%

Business/Other Revenues ‡ 29.07 (0.09) -0.31% 32.20 (0.38) -1.17% 163.36 9.43 6.13%

5,795.42 (2.82) -0.05% 6,348.46 16.30 0.26% 33,450.14 177.84 0.53%

Motor Fuel Tax Refunds and Transfers 186.48 0.00 0.00% 208.61 (5.65) -2.64% 1,029.69 (27.96) -2.64%

Motor Vehicle Account (108) 1,242.73 (5.26) -0.42% 1,221.32 (4.48) -0.37% 6,394.32 24.57 0.39%

Transportation 2003 (Nickel) Account (550) 416.15 (0.19) -0.05% 428.80 1.11 0.26% 2,203.19 7.05 0.32%

Transportation 2005 Partnership Account (09H) 614.53 (0.63) -0.10% 635.27 0.91 0.14% 3,273.50 7.66 0.23%

Connecting Washington Account (20H) 539.14 0.00 0.00% 809.02 2.61 0.32% 4,156.26 14.22 0.34%

Multimodal Account (218) 402.48 3.08 0.77% 512.02 3.56 0.70% 3,044.93 23.76 0.79%

Special Category C Account (215) 49.72 (0.00) 0.00% 50.99 0.16 0.32% 261.95 0.90 0.34%

Puget Sound Capital Construction Account (099) 36.17 (0.00) 0.00% 37.10 0.12 0.32% 190.59 0.65 0.34%

Puget Sound Ferry Operations Account (109) 438.15 1.20 0.27% 469.57 13.20 2.89% 2,455.92 75.00 3.15%

Capital Vessel Replacement Account (18J) 42.60 0.63 1.50% 40.13 3.37 9.17% 203.57 16.72 8.95%

Tacoma Narrows Bridge Account (511) 163.57 0.00 0.00% 168.85 0.00 0.00% 886.55 0.00 0.00%

High Occupancy Toll Lanes Account (09F)^ 4.21 0.00 0.00% 6.34 0.00 0.00% 6.34 0.00 0.00%

SR 520 Corridor Account (16J) 151.99 0.00 0.00% 169.49 0.00 0.00% 972.54 0.00 0.00%

SR 520 Corridor Civil Penalties Account (17P) 7.27 0.00 0.00% 7.68 0.00 0.00% 43.84 0.00 0.00%

Interstate 405 Express Toll Lanes Operations (595) 38.93 0.00 0.00% 56.61 0.00 0.00% 372.66 0.00 0.00%

Aeronautics Account (039) 5.35 0.04 0.73% 7.12 0.05 0.73% 37.20 0.25 0.67%

Washington State Aviation Account (21G) 0.00 0.00 0.00% 0.00 0.00 0.00% 0.00 0.00 0.00%

State Patrol Highway Account (081) 387.73 (0.29) -0.08% 446.77 (1.37) -0.31% 2,369.38 0.29 0.01%

Highway/Motorcycle Safety Accts. (106 & 082) 271.85 (1.31) -0.48% 257.80 (1.87) -0.72% 1,348.69 8.30 0.62%

School Zone Safety Account (780) 0.88 0.00 0.00% 0.83 0.00 0.00% 4.13 0.00 0.00%

Other accounts (201, 06T, 097, 09E, 216, 07C) 17.21 0.03 0.20% 17.68 0.16 0.91% 91.74 0.83 0.92%

Ignition Interlock Devices Revolving Acct 14V 7.03 (0.06) -0.88% 6.40 0.50 8.39% 31.78 2.24 7.60%

Multiuse Roadway Safety Account Collections-571 0.14 0.01 7.52% 0.18 0.02 12.83% 0.93 0.11 12.80%

4,837.69 (2.77) -0.06% 5,349.79 18.03 0.34% 28,349.07 182.46 0.65%

Cities 190.67 (0.00) 0.00% 195.55 0.63 0.32% 1,004.60 3.44 0.34%

Counties 308.35 0.06 0.02% 314.57 2.11 0.67% 1,617.44 11.11 0.69%

Transportation Improvement Board (112 & 144) 203.73 (0.06) -0.03% 209.31 0.82 0.39% 1,080.91 5.61 0.52%

County Road Administration Board (102 & 186) 68.50 (0.06) -0.09% 70.63 0.37 0.53% 368.42 3.18 0.87%

771.25 (0.06) -0.01% 790.06 3.93 0.50% 4,071.38 23.34 0.58%

5,795.42 (2.82) -0.05% 6,348.46 16.30 0.26% 33,450.14 177.84 0.53%

Total Revenues

Sources of Transportation Revenue

Distribution of Revenue

State Uses

Total for State Use

Local Uses

Total for Local Use

Total Distribution of Revenue

Forecast to Forecast Comparison for Transportation Revenues and Distributions 10-Year Period

(2017-2027)

September 2017• millions of dollars10-Year Period

2015-2017 2017-2019

Current Biennium

Adopted 9-20-17 6

The change in transportation revenue for this 10-year forecast being higher is due partly to higher economic variables projections than the last forecast and certain forecasts having strong actual collections.

The comparison of the September forecast to the baseline forecast (March 2017) is provided in Figure 4 below. Since the March 2017 forecast, in the 2015-17 biennium, transportation revenues have fallen to $5.795 billion or by $25.71 million. The current biennium is anticipated to have $6.35 billion which is down $83.31 million or 1.3% from the March forecast. This is mainly due to motor fuel tax collections coming in lower than anticipated in March by $72.9 million and licenses, permits and fee revenue coming in below the March forecast by $26.91 million. Over the next 10 years, the current forecast for transportation revenue is below the March forecast by $375 million or 1.1%. Figure 4: Forecast to Baseline Biennium Comparison of All Transportation Revenues September 2017 forecast - 10-year period

† Ferry Fares plus non-farebox revenue ‡ Business/Other Revenues net of amounts transferred to General Fund in the forecast. § 167 HOT lanes is a pilot program that is currently scheduled to sunset June 30, 2019 Baseline forecast is March 2017

Forecast Chg from Percent Forecast Chg from Percent Forecast Chg from Percent

Sep-17 Baseline ¥ Change Sep-17 Baseline ¥ Change Sep-17 Baseline ¥ Change

Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax Collections 3,276.98 (12.97) -0.39% 3,584.90 (72.87) -1.99% 18,390.08 (454.36) -2.41%

Licenses, Permits and Fees 1,277.48 (13.87) -1.07% 1,451.01 (26.91) -1.82% 8,023.89 (12.68) -0.16%

Ferry Revenue† 377.23 1.48 0.39% 404.53 14.11 3.61% 2,119.06 76.93 3.77%

Toll Revenue § 365.97 (2.01) -0.55% 408.97 6.34 1.58% 2,281.93 6.34 0.28%

Aviation Revenues ‡ 5.35 0.01 0.15% 7.12 0.26 3.82% 37.20 2.14 6.11%

Rental Car Tax 64.38 (0.32) -0.50% 67.58 (0.87) -1.27% 367.22 (3.80) -1.03%

Vehicle Sales Tax 93.87 0.36 0.38% 102.47 1.18 1.17% 554.73 4.90 0.89%

Driver-Related Fees 305.09 1.09 0.36% 289.68 (4.03) -1.37% 1,512.67 (2.32) -0.15%

Business/Other Revenues ± 29.07 (0.06) -0.22% 32.20 (0.53) -1.61% 163.36 7.82 5.03%

5,795.42 (26.29) -0.45% 6,348.46 (83.31) -1.30% 33,450.14 (375.03) -1.11%

Motor Fuel Tax Refunds and Transfers 186.48 5.77 3.20% 208.61 7.86 3.92% 1,029.69 (8.54) -0.82%

Motor Vehicle Account (108) 1,242.73 (20.51) -1.62% 1,221.32 (51.67) -4.06% 6,394.32 (144.12) -2.20%

Transportation 2003 (Nickel) Account (550) 416.15 (1.53) -0.37% 428.80 (6.47) -1.49% 2,203.19 (37.94) -1.69%

Transportation 2005 Partnership Account (09H) 614.53 (3.48) -0.56% 635.27 (12.81) -1.98% 3,273.50 (73.12) -2.18%

Connecting Washington Account (20H) 539.14 (4.28) -0.79% 809.02 (17.26) -2.09% 4,156.26 (100.58) -2.36%

Multimodal Account (218) 402.48 1.85 0.46% 512.02 0.84 0.17% 3,044.93 9.95 0.33%

Special Category C Account (215) 49.72 (0.27) -0.54% 50.99 (1.09) -2.09% 261.95 (6.34) -2.36%

Puget Sound Capital Construction Account (099) 36.17 (0.20) -0.54% 37.10 (0.79) -2.09% 190.59 (4.61) -2.36%

Puget Sound Ferry Operations Account (109) 438.15 0.87 0.20% 469.57 11.61 2.54% 2,455.92 66.11 2.77%

Capital Vessel Replacement Account (18J) 42.60 1.03 2.49% 40.13 3.46 9.44% 203.57 16.29 8.70%

Tacoma Narrows Bridge Account (511) 163.57 0.00 0.00% 168.85 0.00 0.00% 886.55 0.00 0.00%

High Occupancy Toll Lanes Account (09F) 4.21 0.59 0.00% 6.34 6.34 0.00% 6.34 6.34 100.00%

SR 520 Corridor Account (16J) 151.99 0.00 0.00% 169.49 0.00 0.00% 972.54 0.00 0.00%

SR 520 Corridor Civil Penalties Account (17P) 7.27 0.00 0.00% 7.68 0.00 0.00% 43.84 0.00 0.00%

Interstate 405 Express Toll Lanes Operations (595) 38.93 (2.61) -6.27% 56.61 0.00 0.00% 372.66 0.00 0.00%

Aeronautics Account (039) 5.35 0.01 0.15% 7.12 0.26 3.82% 37.20 2.14 6.11%

Washington State Aviation Account (21G) 0.00 0.00 0.00% 0.00 0.00 0.00% 0.00 0.00 0.00%

State Patrol Highway Account (081) 387.73 (0.55) -0.14% 446.77 (3.99) -0.89% 2,369.38 (6.47) -0.27%

Highway/Motorcycle Safety Accts. (106 & 082) 271.85 0.81 0.30% 257.80 (5.30) -2.01% 1,348.69 (8.52) -0.63%

School Zone Safety Account (780) 0.88 (0.01) -1.55% 0.83 (0.07) -7.85% 4.13 (0.44) -9.56%

Other accounts (201, 06T, 097, 09E, 216, 07C) 17.21 (0.02) -0.14% 17.68 0.11 0.62% 91.74 0.28 0.30%

Ignition Interlock Device Revolving Acct 14V 7.03 0.22 3.20% 6.40 0.87 15.68% 31.78 4.10 14.83%

Multiuse Roadway Safety Account Collections-571 0.04 0.00 0.00% 0.14 0.02 18.78% 0.88 0.24 36.35%

4,837.69 (28.08) -0.58% 5,349.79 (75.95) -1.40% 28,349.07 (276.92) -0.97%

Cities 190.67 (1.03) -0.54% 195.55 (4.17) -2.09% 1,004.60 (24.31) -2.36%

Counties 308.35 (1.40) -0.45% 314.57 (5.42) -1.69% 1,617.44 (34.53) -2.09%

Transportation Improvement Board (112 & 144) 203.73 (1.14) -0.56% 209.31 (4.29) -2.01% 1,080.91 (23.99) -2.17%

County Road Administration Board (102 & 186) 68.50 (0.41) -0.59% 70.63 (1.33) -1.85% 368.42 (6.74) -1.80%

771.25 (3.99) -0.51% 790.06 (15.22) -1.89% 4,071.38 (89.57) -2.15%

5,795.42 (26.29) -0.45% 6,348.46 (83.31) -1.30% 33,450.14 (375.03) -1.11%

Forecast to Baseline Comparison for Transportation Revenues and Distributions 10-Year Period

September 2017• millions of dollars

10-Year PeriodCurrent Biennium

2017-2019 (2017-2027)

Total for Local Use

Total Distribution of Revenue

Sources of Transportation Revenue

Total Revenues

Distribution of Revenue

State Uses

Total for State Use

Local Uses

2015-2017

Adopted 9-20-17 7

Economic Variables Forecast

Several economic variables are used in forecasting Washington’s transportation revenues each quarter. Key economic variables include the following: Washington real personal income, driver age population, driver-in population, inflation, employment, oil price index, fuel efficiency, US sales of new light vehicles and various employment sectors.

Figure 5: Annual Percentage Change (%) in Select Economic Variables September 2017 Forecast

Source: Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, Washington Office of Financial Management 2017 long-range forecast, August 2017 Global Insight forecast adjusted for Blue Chip average GDP growth rates and NYMEX crude oil prices

Fiscal

Year

WA

Personal

Income

Annual

Driver Age

Population

Driver-In

Population

US

General

Prices

(IPDC)

US Oil &

Gas Price

Index

US Fuel

Efficiency

(MPG)

Nominal

Consumer Sales

on New

Vehicles

WA Non-ag.

employment

WA Trade,

Transportation and

Utilities

Employment

WA Retail

Trade

Employment

2010 -3.5% 1.1% -1.0% 1.0% 3.1% -0.9% 9.3% -3.5% -3.3% -4.0%

2011 2.9% 1.0% 19.9% 1.8% 18.2% 1.4% 5.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6%

2012 4.4% 1.0% -9.8% 2.4% 13.9% 1.1% 6.3% 1.4% 1.8% 2.0%

2013 4.0% 1.1% 2.1% 1.5% 0.4% 1.0% -0.9% 2.0% 2.8% 2.4%

2014 2.3% 1.4% 9.7% 1.4% -2.1% 1.3% 2.6% 2.3% 3.7% 3.2%

2015 5.5% 1.5% 10.2% 0.9% -17.5% 1.6% 2.0% 2.8% 3.9% 3.6%

2016 3.4% 1.7% 10.0% 0.7% -20.4% 1.8% 5.5% 2.9% 3.5% 2.9%

2017 3.9% 1.7% -4.2% 1.6% 3.2% 1.9% 3.0% 3.0% 4.8% 3.8%

2018 3.5% 1.6% 1.3% 1.4% -3.7% 1.8% 1.4% 2.7% 3.3% 2.8%

2019 3.6% 1.5% 1.1% 1.5% 0.1% 1.8% -0.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6%

2020 3.7% 1.3% 1.0% 1.8% 13.7% 1.9% 2.8% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0%

2021 3.1% 1.2% 0.9% 1.9% 9.6% 1.9% 4.5% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7%

2022 3.1% 1.1% 0.8% 2.1% 5.5% 1.9% 3.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2%

2023 2.6% 1.1% 0.6% 2.2% 5.3% 1.9% 3.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5%

2024 2.4% 1.1% 0.6% 2.3% 3.8% 2.0% 2.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6%

2025 2.5% 1.1% 0.6% 2.2% 3.2% 2.0% 2.9% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6%

2026 2.5% 1.1% 0.6% 2.2% 2.8% 2.1% 3.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6%

2027 2.5% 1.1% 0.6% 2.1% 2.6% 2.2% 3.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6%

2028 2.6% 1.1% 0.6% 2.0% 2.6% 2.1% 4.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6%

2029 2.6% 1.0% 0.5% 2.0% 2.6% 2.1% 3.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6%

Adopted 9-20-17 8

Figure 6: Difference in Annual Percent Changes in Select Economic Variables from

Last Forecast - September 2017 Forecast

Motor Fuel Price Forecast

Washington’s transportation revenues are affected by fuel prices. In particular, gasoline tax collections are negatively related to the price of gasoline. WSDOT’s budget is heavily impacted by changes in fuel prices. Therefore, projections of fuel prices are made quarterly to assist in the near and long-term budgeting process for WSDOT. The forecast includes the following price projections: U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) and Washington retail prices of gasoline, diesel, and biodiesel (B5 & B99). Source of data for the forecast

For the Washington retail price of gasoline, fuel prices are collected from the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) survey of retail prices for regular gasoline. For the retail price of diesel, the actual prices are collected from AAA’s weekly publication of retail prices for diesel in Washington. The actual ferry B5 biodiesel prices are reported by the Washington State Ferries (WSF). In the short term (thorough calendar year 2018), the retail gas price forecasts are based on the growth in the national gas price forecast by EIA. The diesel and biodiesel fuel prices are projected based on the growth in national diesel prices from the Energy Information Agency (EIA) monthly projections. Beyond calendar year 2018, the fuel price projections are based on August’s Global Insight national gas price forecast for future Washington gas

Fiscal

Year

WA

Personal

Income

Annual Driver

Age

Population

Driver-In

Population

US General

Prices

(IPDC)

US Oil &

Gas Price

Index

US Fuel

Efficiency

(MPG)

Nominal

Consumer Sales

on New Vehicles

WA Non-ag.

employment

WA Trade,

Transportation and

Utilities Employment

WA Retail

Trade

Employment

2018

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

Percentage Change in Levels of Economic Variables (Current FY 2018)

Difference in Annual Percentage Change in Economic Variables

Difference in percentage change is greater than 1%

Difference in percentage change is less than 1% and greater than 0.1%

Difference in percentage change is less than 0.1% and greater than -0.1%

Difference in percentage change is greater than -0.1% and less than -1%

Difference in percentage change is greater than -1%

Adopted 9-20-17 9

prices and the producer price index (PPI) projections for refined petroleum products for the diesel price forecasts.

The forecasts of biodiesel prices include two different biodiesel prices: B5 and B99 without the renewable identification number (RIN). WSF currently purchases biodiesel as B5. WSDOT also purchases B99 biodiesel without RIN for vehicle fleet needs. WSDOT receives OPIS fuel prices with the latest prices for B5 and B99 biodiesel prices without RIN in Tacoma. The B99 prices represent those paid by other state entities’ purchases of biodiesel. The B5 price is based on Washington State ferries’ latest reported purchase price of biodiesel with the markup, delivery, and other tax costs included and the latest B5 OPIS prices for the current forecast month. The base for the price forecast for the B99 price without RIN for non-WSF purchases is the OPIS base price without markup, delivery, and tax costs.

Figure 7: Near-term UNADJUSTED BASELINE Qtrly Fuel Prices: September 2017

Fiscal Year Quarter

Crude Oil Price ($/barrel)

WA Retail Gasoline Price ($/gal)

WA Retail Diesel Price ($/gal)

2016: Q3 44.85 2.61 2.71

2016: Q4 49.14 2.61 2.73

2017: Q1 51.77 2.73 2.85

2017: Q2 48.24 2.86 2.86

FY 2017 48.50 2.70 2.79

2017: Q3 47.71 2.81 2.88

2017: Q4 48.00 2.67 2.98

2018: Q1 48.00 2.62 2.94

2018: Q2 48.00 2.85 2.93

FY 2018 47.93 2.74 2.93

2018: Q3 50.00 2.86 2.95

2018: Q4 52.33 2.73 3.01

2019: Q1 55.26 2.73 3.12

2019: Q2 60.39 3.19 3.32

FY 2019 54.50 2.88 3.10

2019: Q3 65.47 3.35 3.51

2019: Q4 69.64 3.14 3.68

2020: Q1 73.85 3.16 3.85

2020: Q2 77.67 3.65 4.01

FY 2020 71.66 3.32 3.76

2020: Q3 80.56 3.78 4.14

2020: Q4 82.49 3.49 4.24

2021: Q1 83.85 3.45 4.31

2021: Q2 85.01 3.92 4.38

FY 2021 82.98 3.66 4.27

Adopted 9-20-17 10

Figure 8: Forecast of UNADJUSTED Washington Retail Gasoline Prices, Regular March, June and September 2017

Figure 9: Forecast of UNADJUSTED Washington Retail Diesel Prices March, June and September 2017

Adopted 9-20-17 11

Comparison of several current U.S. crude oil price forecasts

The WTI crude oil prices from five surveyed forecasting entities, EIA, NYMEX, Global Insight, Consensus Economics, and Moody’s Economy.com were compared in this forecast. WSDOT’s baseline fuel price forecasts use the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts in the near-term through calendar year 2017 and then use the growth rates from Global Insight forecasts for subsequent years. The forecast for WTI crude oil in FY 2018 ranged from $48.66 per barrel from NYMEX to Moody’s Economy.com price of $53.3 per barrel. The forecast for WTI crude oil in FY 2019 ranged from $47 per barrel by Global Insight to $56.74 per barrel by Moody’s Economy.com with the average being $52.24 per barrel. The baseline crude oil price forecast in FY 2018 and 2019 were 3% below the 5 entity average and -4.13% higher than the average for FY 2019. Figure 10 reveals the WSDOT baseline WTI price forecast compared to the other entity’s crude oil price forecasts.

Figure 10: Near-term Annual WTI Crude Oil Price Forecasts – 5 Different Forecast Comparisons: September 2017 Dollars per barrel

Fiscal Year

WSDOT (EIA/GI) NYMEX

Global Insight

Economy.com

Consensus Economics

5 Entity Avg

% Diff Lowest

% Diff Highest

% Diff Average

2018 $47.89 $48.51 $46.99 $53.27 $49.92 $49.32 -1.87% 11.24% 2.98%

2019 $54.50 $50.00 $47.34 $56.74 $52.64 $52.24 -13.13% 4.12% -4.13%

Figure 11: Near-term Average Adjusted Quarterly Fuel Prices and B5 Biodiesel Prices and Unadjusted B99 Biodiesel Prices Used for Budgeting Purposes: September 2017 Dollars per gallon

Fiscal Year

Quarter

Adjusted WA Retail

Gasoline Price ($/gal)

Adjusted WA Retail Diesel Price ($/gal)

Adjusted B5 Biodiesel Price

($/gal)

Unadjusted B99

Biodiesel price

2016Q3 2.61 2.71 1.61 1.57 2016Q4 2.61 2.73 1.75 1.33 2017Q1 2.73 2.85 1.83 2.25 2017Q2 2.86 2.86 1.79 2.25 FY2017 2.70 2.79 1.74 1.85 2017Q3 2.81 2.88 1.88 2.40 2017Q4 2.74 3.07 2.05 2.49 2018Q1 2.70 3.03 2.01 2.46 2018Q2 2.94 3.01 1.99 2.44 FY2018 2.80 3.00 1.98 2.45 2018Q3 2.74 2.83 1.87 2.46 2018Q4 2.62 2.88 1.90 2.51 2019Q1 2.62 2.99 1.92 2.61 2019Q2 3.07 3.19 1.95 2.75 FY2019 2.76 2.97 1.91 2.58

WSDOT applies the five entity forecast average adjustment to the baseline September 2017 retail

gasoline, diesel, and B5 biodiesel prices. The fuel prices listed in Figure 11 will be used to estimate the future costs to WSDOT agency’s 2017-19 biennium budget for gas, diesel and biodiesel fuel purchases for fiscal years 2018 through 2019. The latest adjusted forecast requires a 3% adjustment upward in the baseline fuel prices for retail gas, diesel and B5 biodiesel prices for FY 2018 and 4% downward adjustment to the baseline fuel prices in FY 2019.

As Figure 12 reveals, the new B5 fuel price forecast is higher in the current fiscal year than in June

or March with a spike up in biodiesel prices in the fourth quarter of 2017. In FY 2019, the new September B5 price forecast is also slightly above the last forecast in all future quarters but in general the September B5 price forecast is above the last two forecasts and is relatively flat.

Adopted 9-20-17 12

Figure 12: Quarterly Ferries Adjusted B5 Biodiesel Prices Used for Budgeting the

2015-17 and 2017-19 Biennia September vs. June vs. March 2017 Forecasts

Adopted 9-20-17 13

Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax Forecast Overview

Tax collections from motor vehicle fuel sales of gasoline and diesel for June through August 2017 came in above the June 2017 forecast by 2.2% or $10 million. Gasoline tax collections for the past three months exceeded June projections by $7.7 million or 2.0%. Diesel collections exceeded expectations by $2.4 million or 2.8%. Gross fuel tax revenue for the 2015-17 biennium were $3.28 billion or $4.79 million above the June forecast. In the 2017-2019 biennium gross fuel tax collections are projected at $3.58 billion, barely 2.1 million or 0.06% higher than forecasted in June 2017. The overall motor vehicle fuel tax revenue for the 10-year period beginning in the current biennium and ending in the 2025-27 biennium increased to $18.39 billion in total, or a net of $26.9 million higher or 0.16% more than the June revenue forecast. Generally, the current forecast is marginally unchanged from June.

Primary reasons for the change in the September 2017 forecast

In the current biennium, gross gas tax collections increased by $5.93 million due to actuals coming in higher than anticipated by the June forecast. Tribal reservation refunds for gasoline are projected lower by $5.9 million due to lower refunds in FY 2017. This lower projection for tribal refunds for gasoline is carried forward throughout the entire forecast horizon.

In the 2019-2021 biennium, gas tax collections rose slightly by $5.5 million from the last forecast and forecast-to-forecast revenues increase over the 10-year forecast horizon, totaling $31.3 million in the ten years from fiscal years 2018-2027. The long-term increase results primarily from higher actuals in FY2018 as discussed above and higher growth rates of non-agricultural employment through FY2021.

Diesel tax revenues are projected down by $3.8 million in the current biennia compared to the June forecast and down by $4.5 million over the next ten years compared to the June forecast. The decrease in revenues is due to projected weaker growth from FY2018-2020 and nearly no change in the remainder of the forecast horizon.

Motor Vehicle Revenue (Licenses, Permits, and Fees) Overview

Vehicle related forecasts fall into two main categories: motor vehicle registrations and license plate-related fees. This forecast has a variety of small fees but the majority of the revenue is from registration-based fees. There are five main economic drivers for the vehicle licenses, permits, and fees (LPF) forecast: Washington population and net migration, Washington real personal income, Washington - U.S. real income share, Washington Retail Employment, and U.S. sales of light vehicles.

Washington State collected $1.28 billion in vehicle licenses, permits, and fees (LPFs) in the 2015-17 biennium, which was down $7.4 million from the June forecast. LPF revenue is anticipated to be $1.45 billion in the 2017-2019 biennium, an increase of $1.1 million or 0.08% compared to the forecast in June. For the next 10-year period, the LPF forecast is anticipated to be $8 billion which is up a combined $49.4 million or 0.62% from the previous forecast over the next 10 years.


In fiscal year 2017, both passenger vehicle and truck registrations came in above the June forecast by a significant amount. In July 2017, passenger car and truck registrations were down compared to the June overall. Overall, for the past three months, the passenger car and truck registrations have exceeded the last forecast by 3.7%.

Forecasted passenger vehicle registrations for FY 2018 are up 30,700 vehicles or 0.60% over the previous forecast. The increased registrations are mainly due to the higher actual registrations in FY 2017 and slightly higher personal income growth rates forecasted by the Economic Revenue

Adopted 9-20-17 14

Forecast Council in the short term. The higher current forecast for passenger vehicles continues throughout the forecast horizon.

In the current fiscal year, truck registrations are forecasted up for 30,000 vehicles, or 1.92% over the previous forecast. The higher registrations forecast is due to a higher actual in FY 2017 than what we anticipated. This truck registration forecast is also impacted by the higher retail employment growth rates than the June projections.

In FY 2017, the $30 basic license fee revenue came in below our June forecast by $1 million. In the 2017-19 biennium, $30 basic license fee revenue is anticipated to be up 0.85% or over $2.9 million over the last forecast due to higher car registrations. In the next biennium, revenue from $30 registrations is about $3.7 million higher than the previous forecast. The forecast runs more than $4 million (1%) higher than the June forecast each biennium from 2021-23 biennium throughout the end of the forecast.

In FY 2017, the truck weight fee revenue came in $2.7 million below the June forecast. In the 2017-19 biennium, truck revenue is anticipated to be lower by $3.7 million in this forecast than the previous one. This is due to the low actual revenue last fiscal year and the application of new 2017 truck weight distribution to this forecast. The revenue starts to pick up in the following biennium, and by the end of the forecast horizon, we are seeing a $1.5 million increased revenue in 2027-29 biennium over the June forecast.

In the June forecast, we increased the Freight Project fees forecast due to a lot more Freight Project revenues showing up in FY 2017, but we raised the June forecast more than we should have for FY 2017 and outer biennia. So in this forecast, the freight project fee forecast has been reduced to reflect the lower actuals seen in FY 2017. In the 2017-19 biennium, the Freight Project fees is about $4.53 million less than the previous forecast. This continues throughout the forecast horizon. By the end of this forecast horizon, we will see a $4.51 million decreased revenue in 2027-29 biennium from the last forecast.

In FY 2017, the passenger weight fee revenue came in below forecast by $2.5 million. The revenue for the Passenger Vehicle Weight fee is impacted by the increased car registration forecast, so we see a corresponding increase in weight fees in this forecast. In the 2017-19 biennium there is an about $2.4 million, or 0.78% increase forecast to forecast, however, the increase in revenue grows to $4.8 million, or 0.99% by the end of the forecast horizon.

Driver Related Revenue Forecasts

Overview

The September 2017 forecast of driver related revenue projected by the Department of Licensing

includes the following revenues: driver license fees (including commercial driver licenses, enhanced driver licenses, and temporary restricted licenses), ID card fees, driver exam application fees, copies of records, motorcycle operator fees, ignition interlock fees, and other miscellaneous fees. The miscellaneous fees include vehicle filing fees, limousine licenses, fines and forfeitures, and driver school instructor license fees. These driver-related fees are deposited into the Highway Safety Fund (HSF), Motorcycle Safety Education Account (MSEA), the State Patrol Highway Account (SPHA), and Ignition Interlock Revolving Account (IIRA).

All driver-related revenue for FY2015-17 biennium is closed at $305.1 million, about $1.5 million (or -0.5%) lower than the prior forecast. Revenue for FY2017-19 biennium is forecasted at $289.7 million, about $1.4 million (or -0.5%) lower than the prior forecast. Over the next ten-year period (FY16-FY25), driver related revenue is anticipated to total $1,506.2 million, about $6.3 million (+0.4%) higher from the prior forecast.

Adopted 9-20-17 15

It is important to note that many of the driver related revenue streams follow a five-year renewal

cycle until FY2015 when DOL started issuing six year licenses. Caution is advised in year over year

comparisons.


ESB 5008 (2017) impact: the large fee reduction from $54 to $24 did not result in higher demand in EDL/EID in the two month observed. Therefore, FY18 demand estimate is lowered by about 25% from prior forecast.

Ignition Interlock Device Revolving Account (14V) is up by about 7% to 8% throughout the forecast horizon primarily due to a large delayed payment from a vendor which made us believe that the prior forecast was too low.

Other Transportation Related Revenue Forecast

Overview

This category of transportation related revenue forecasts consist of four primary components: vehicle sales and use taxes, rental car sales taxes, studded tire fees, business and other revenue and aeronautics revenue. The business and other revenue category includes the following revenue sources:

Sales of property

WSP and DOT services and publications and documents

Filing fees and legal services

Property management

Access Permits (Highways)

Outdoor Advertising

Other revenues

State Patrol Highway Account miscellaneous revenue consists of ACCESS fees (fees charged for usage of our statewide law enforcement telecommunications system), Breathalyzer Test fines, DUI Cost Reimbursement, Commercial Vehicle Penalties and Communication Tower Site Leases and Terminal Safety Inspection fees.

Washington State anticipates collecting over $192.62 million from Other Transportation Related

revenues in the 2015-2017 biennium and $209.4 million in the 2017-19 biennium, an increase of $0.28 million compared to the forecast in June. For the next 10-year period, the transportation related revenue forecast is anticipated to be $1,085 million, which is up $11.9 million from the previous estimate in June mainly due to higher new vehicle car sales tax and business related revenue.

Primary reasons for the change in the June 2017 forecast

Vehicle sales and use tax revenue has come in above forecast. Sales taxes were $5,600 higher, or 0.03%. Use taxes were $234,300 higher, or 7.2%. The forecast was revised up in the near term due to higher collections to date and continued strong growth. A weaker forecast of vehicle sales resulted in the growth of revenue to be revised down slightly. By FY 2027, even with the lower growth, the September forecast is still higher than the June forecast. The forecast is higher in the 2025-27 biennium by 0.6%.

In the three months since the last forecast, rental car tax collections are $234,600 below forecast, or 1.6%. Revenue growth fell to 2.7% in FY 2017 after growing 8.7% in FY 2016. The forecast had expected 2.9% growth. Growth is expected to continue to slow throughout the forecast. New economic variables had a minimal impact on the forecast. The forecast is lower in the 2025-27 biennium by 0.7%.

WSDOT Business and other miscellaneous revenue for September has been revised up by $0.19 million from the June forecast in the 2015-17 biennium to reflect actuals. This September forecast

Adopted 9-20-17 16

has been revised downward in the 2017-19 biennium by $0.2 million or 1.4%. This is primarily due to property management revenues coming in lower than expected for the 2015-17 biennium. In consultation with WSDOT Real Estate Services Department, property sales are projected to be $10 million a biennium, $0.5 million or 5.3% higher than forecasted in June. Other revenues are higher than the June Forecast due to the addition the fines and forfeitures. Overall WSDOT Business related revenues are up $13.0 million or 19.8% from the last forecast in the next ten-year horizon primarily due to property sales.

The school zone fines forecast has not been changed since the June forecast. WSP business related revenue for September has changed due to actuals in FY 2017 coming in

less than anticipated. This was especially true of the commercial vehicle penalties, terminal safety inspection fee, DUI cost reimbursement and breathalyzer test fines. WSP publications and documents came in 8.7% higher in FY 2017 than anticipated in June. Overall, in the 2015-17 biennium, the WSP business related revenue went down by $0.28 million or 2%. In future biennia, WSP business related revenue is down 1% forecast to forecast due to lower FY 2017 actuals and the updated inflation forecast being less than the June forecast.

The aviation fuel tax forecast was revised downward by $0.039 million or 1% in the current biennium due to collections coming in less than projected. In the next biennium, aviation fuel taxes are down as well. Beginning in the 2019-21 biennium, the forecast to forecast comparison of aviation fuel tax revenue is up from the last forecast due to the incorporation of a new FAA forecast.

The aircraft excise tax revenue is down slightly from the last forecast.

The aeronautics fuel tax refund transfer had been revised downward by $2.615 in the current fiscal year due to lower fuel consumption & revenue in this June documents.

The new revenue from the aviation specialty license plates has not changed since the June forecast which reflected the original fiscal note for the 2017 legislation.

Ferry Ridership and Revenue

Overview

For the current forecast, the ferry fare revenue and ridership forecasts for Washington State Ferries are completed in four stages applying to seven fare categories. The seven fare categories are:

Passenger full fares

Passenger frequent user discounted (commuter) fares

Passenger other discounted fares (e.g., senior fare, youth fare)

Auto / driver full fares

Auto / driver frequent user discounted (commuter) fares

Other vehicle / driver discounted (senior/disabled and motorcycle) fares

Oversize vehicle / driver (over 22 feet in length) fares

In August 2017, the Washington State Transportation Commission adopted annual fare increases to take effect on October 1, 2017 (FY 2018) and October 1, 2018 (FY 2019), effectively changing the fare assumptions for the September 2017 Baseline Forecast compared with June 2017 Baseline Forecast. The first increase on October 1, 2017 will raise passenger fares by 2.1% and vehicle/driver fares by 2.9%, except oversize vehicles, which will receive smaller fare increases averaging about 1.6% overall. A second increase will take place on October 1, 2018, raising passenger fares by another 2.1% and non-oversize vehicle/driver fares by 2.5%. Oversize vehicle fares will remain unchanged over their FY 2018 fares. With no further fare increases included in the Baseline Forecast, real fares will slowly decline beyond FY 2019 due to general inflation.

Adopted 9-20-17 17

Overall, the September Baseline Forecast ridership in the current 2017-19 biennium is 0.7% higher than the June forecast. This is the result of positive trends in the various economic and demographic forecast variable inputs, combined with a strong, above forecast finish for FY 2017, that more than offset the downward impacts of the higher fares included in the September Forecast. For the rest of the forecast horizon, projected overall ridership is lower due to the higher fares, with decreases from the June forecast ranging from 0.4% to 0.7%.

For the current biennium, miscellaneous revenues are projected to be 4.4% higher than in June,

driven by a 27.3% increase in terminal non-fare revenue. For subsequent biennia, forecasted miscellaneous revenues have been revised upward by 5.4 % compared to the June forecast.

Total fare and miscellaneous revenues forecasted for the 2017-19 biennium amount to $404.5

million, which is 3.6% higher than the last forecast due to the higher fares. Over the next 12 years (FY 2018-29), ferry fare and miscellaneous revenue will amount to $2.57 billion, which is 3.5% higher than the June Forecast.


Overall, the September forecast is the result of higher fares combined positive trends in the three

employment measures, real personal income, real gas prices, and general inflation.

Ridership and revenue in the current biennium are also influenced by higher than expected

performance in May and June to finish out FY 2017.

WSF’s forecast for miscellaneous revenue is higher across the board than in June 2017. This is

driven by an upward revision in terminal concessions stemming from: 1) the opening of new

services at the Anacortes terminal; and 2) incorporation of complete data from May 2017. This

increase is partially offset by a decline in vessel non fare revenue, driven by several service

disruptions due to various vessels needing to be removed from service.

Toll Revenue Overview

The September 2017 forecast was a no change forecast from the June 2017 forecast for all four toll facilities in Washington State.

For the two toll bridges – Tacoma Narrows Bridge (TNB) and SR 520 Toll Bridge (SR 520), June 2017 forecast was a no change forecast from November 2016. FY 2017 actuals for the two toll bridges came in line with the forecast.

TNB: Both reported toll transactions and reported revenue potential were close to forecast in FY 2017. The toll transactions were slightly below the forecast by 1.4% and the reported toll revenue adjusted were below the forecast by 0.5%.

SR 520: FY 2017 reported toll transactions are slightly below the forecast, with full fiscal year variance of negative 0.8%, primarily due to higher than expected weekend bridge closures partially offset by higher diversion to SR 520 from I-90 closures. Compared to the forecast, toll revenue potential was 0.1% below the forecast and adjusted revenue was 0.6% below the forecast, aligned with the variation in toll traffic.

During June 2017 forecast update, both SR 167 High Occupancy Toll (HOT) Lanes and I-405 Express Toll Lanes (ETLs) updated their FY 2017 forecasts based on observed actuals through May 2017. The actual reported revenues in June 2017 were above June forecast.

SR 167 High Occupancy Toll (HOT) Lanes: We have observed strong growth for the facility in FY 2017 and incorporated this observation in June 2017 forecast. The reported toll

Adopted 9-20-17 18

revenues in summer 2017 continued to outperform June forecast, with June toll revenue over the forecast by 33.5%, July over the forecast by 17.6%, and August over the forecast by 30.8%.

I-405 Express Toll Lanes (ETLs): In June 2017 we reduced I-405 forecast in FY 2017 based on: (1) the observed lower number of toll trips; (2) the lower than expected average toll rates; and (3) the negative revenue impact from the newly completed peak hour shoulder running project (starting in April 2017). June 2017 actual toll revenue was $2,262,296, 9.8% above June forecast.

July 2017 (FY 2018) Performance for TNB, SR 520, and I-405 ETLs:

FY 2018 forecasted toll revenues for the above three facilities haven’t changed since November 2016 forecast.

In July 2017, the three toll facilities with photo toll system (TNB, SR 520, and I-405) show inconsistency between the positive traffic performance and negative revenue performance in a range of +3% to -27%, respectively. A recently identified issue with the customer back office system’s image processing software created a significant backlog in processing toll bills and civil penalties. The issue is now fixed and WSDOT is working closely with the vendor to process the backlog of unbilled toll transactions. The effort of clearing the backlog has been slowed down by the increased number of manual review images caused by the summer/autumn light glare at the new (permanent) SR 520 tolling location. Tolling team has been adding more efforts on image review and looking for permanent fixes of the glare problem. The size of the backlog has been under the control and the revenues from the delayed photo toll transactions are expected to be recaptured in the coming few months (within FY 2018).

TNB: July 2017 reported toll traffic transactions were 1.4 million, 3.3% over the forecast; the reported toll revenues were $6.7 million, 2.9% below the forecast.

SR 520: July 2017 reported toll traffic transactions were 2.1 million, 2.9% over the forecast; the reported toll revenues were $4.9 million, 20% below the forecast.

I-405 Express Toll Lanes (ETLs): July 2017 reported toll traffic transactions were 857,000, 1.8% over the forecast; the reported toll revenues were $1.3 million, 26.6% below the forecast.

Actual vs forecast performance for TNB Toll Bridge

TNB’s September 2017 forecast was a no change forecast from the November 2016 forecast. Its reported toll transactions and reported revenue were close to forecast in FY 2017, with the variance within 1.4%.

For July 2017 (first month in FY 2018), as mentioned earlier, TNB’s actual toll transactions were 3% above the forecast, the reported toll revenue was 3% below the forecast mainly due to the image review backlog issue.

Adopted 9-20-17 19

Figure 13: FY 2017 TNB Reported Toll Transactions Compared to November 2016 Forecast

Figure 14: FY 2017 TNB Reported Toll Revenue Compared to November 2016 Forecast

Adopted 9-20-17 20

Figure 15: FY 2018 TNB Reported Toll Transactions Compared to November 2016 Forecast

Figure 16: FY 2018 TNB Reported Toll Revenue Compared to November 2016 Forecast

Adopted 9-20-17 21

Actual vs forecast performance for SR 520 Toll Bridge

As mentioned in the toll Overview, the SR 520 toll bridge forecasts in September 2017 are the same as in June 2017 and November 2016. The following tables and charts reveal how the SR 520 traffic and revenue have been performing compared to the November 2016 forecast.

For full FY 2017, both toll transactions and revenues were within 1% of the forecast. SR 520 reported toll transactions were 0.8% below forecast, mainly due to the higher than forecasted closure days. The reported toll revenue potential was 0.1% or $76,000 below the forecast and adjusted gross toll revenue was 0.6% or $490,000 below forecast. The lower results for adjusted gross toll revenue is primarily due to higher implied leakage due to delays in some image based transactions that occurred in late FY 2017 but were processed in early FY 2018.

Figure 17: FY 2017 SR 520 Reported Toll Transactions Compared to November 2016 Forecast

TOLL TRANSACTIONS Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17Fiscal Year

To Date

Annual

Total

Forecasted Closure Days 1 - - - 2.00 - - - - - 0.67 0.67 0.67 4.00 4.00

Reported Closure Days - - - 2.00 - 2.00 1.61 - - 2.00 0.11 - 7.72 7.72

Forecasted Transactions 2 2,003,000 2,080,000 2,010,000 1,944,000 1,934,000 1,925,000 1,975,000 1,824,000 2,175,000 1,972,000 2,179,000 2,169,000 24,190,000 24,190,000

Reported Transactions 3 2,062,020 2,133,456 2,019,512 1,925,790 1,937,436 1,766,661 1,860,068 1,780,747 2,172,872 1,941,236 2,216,001 2,185,913 24,001,712 24,001,712

Variance From Forecast 59,020 53,456 9,512 (18,210) 3,436 (158,339) (114,932) (43,253) (2,128) (30,764) 37,001 16,913 (188,288) (188,288)

Variance - % Change 2.9% 2.6% 0.5% (0.9%) 0.2% (8.2%) (5.8%) (2.4%) (0.1%) (1.6%) 1.7% 0.8% (0.8%) (0.8%)

Reported Good To Go! Pass 59.5% 58.6% 62.0% 63.9% 64.5% 65.1% 66.1% 64.0% 63.5% 62.2% - - 62.8%

Reported Good To Go! Plate 23.5% 22.6% 22.2% 20.8% 20.1% 19.5% 19.6% 20.5% 21.5% 22.4% - - 21.3%

Reported Pay By Mail 17.0% 18.8% 15.8% 15.3% 15.4% 15.4% 14.4% 15.4% 15.0% 15.4% - - 15.8%

Reported Good To Go! Pass 1,226,480 1,250,526 1,251,469 1,230,911 1,249,730 1,150,333 1,228,850 1,140,206 1,379,084 1,207,875 - - 12,315,464

Reported Good To Go! Plate 485,123 481,893 449,206 400,669 389,219 344,052 363,719 365,816 468,055 433,907 - - 4,181,660

Reported Pay By Mail Transactions350,416 401,038 318,838 294,210 298,487 272,276 267,499 274,725 325,732 299,455 - - 3,102,675

Reported Transactions - Unclassified for three months- - - - - - - - - - 2,216,001 2,185,913 4,401,914

1 Forecasted weekend construction related closures as provided by the November 2016 Forecast.

2 Values based on the November 2016 Forecast.

3 Reported values for Jul-Dec are based on Customer Service Center resolved transactions data as of April 25, 2016, Jan-Jun are based on total monthly transactions adjusted for non-revenue and

duplicate transactions.

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2,200,000

2,400,000

Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17

Toll

Tra

nsa

ctio

ns

ReportedTransactions -Unclassified forthree months

Reported Pay ByMail Transactions

Reported Good ToGo! Plate

Reported Good ToGo! Pass

ForecastedTransactions

Notes:

Adopted 9-20-17 22

Figure 18: FY 2017 SR 520 Reported Toll Revenue Compared to November 2016 Forecast

For July 2017, SR 520 transactions were 2.9% above forecast and gross toll revenue potential was 4.0% above June 2017 forecast (unchanged from November 2016). The forecast assumes 1.9 weekday night closures, and 0.5 actually occurred.

Adjusted gross toll revenue in July is $1,226,000 lower than forecast (20%). As explained before, the lower value for adjusted gross toll revenue compared to the forecast reflects the image based transaction processing delays. Those delayed revenues are expected to be recaptured in coming months.

GROSS TOLL

REVENUEJul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17

Fiscal Year

To Date

Annual

Total

Forecasted Closure Days1- - - 2.00 - - - - - 0.67 0.67 0.67 4.00 4.00

Reported Closure Days - - - 2.00 - 2.00 1.61 - - 2.00 0.11 - 7.72 7.72

Forecasted Potential2 $6,770,000 $7,157,000 $6,829,000 $6,645,000 $6,573,000 $6,507,000 $6,687,000 $6,228,000 $7,435,000 $6,675,000 $7,436,000 $7,429,000 $82,371,000 $82,371,000

Reported Potential3 $6,986,880 $7,385,673 $6,916,602 $6,633,706 $6,595,547 $6,036,774 $6,371,112 $6,069,433 $7,447,795 $6,645,276 $7,683,306 $7,522,825 $82,294,929 $82,294,929

Variance From Forecast $216,880 $228,673 $87,602 ($11,294) $22,547 ($470,226) ($315,888) ($158,567) $12,795 ($29,724) $247,306 $93,825 ($76,071) ($76,071)

Variance - % Change 3.2% 3.2% 1.3% (0.2%) 0.3% (7.2%) (4.7%) (2.5%) 0.2% (0.4%) 3.3% 1.3% (0.1%) (0.1%)

Forecasted Adjusted4 $6,001,000 $6,557,000 $6,256,000 $6,088,000 $6,023,000 $5,961,000 $6,127,000 $5,706,000 $6,811,000 $6,115,000 $6,812,000 $7,012,000 $75,469,000 $75,469,000

Reported Adjusted5 $5,616,448 $6,716,440 $6,740,937 $6,244,995 $6,151,750 $5,634,812 $5,878,999 $5,425,995 $6,825,223 $5,890,911 $6,561,245 $7,291,291 $74,979,046 $74,979,046

Variance From Forecast ($384,552) $159,440 $484,937 $156,995 $128,750 ($326,188) ($248,001) ($280,005) $14,223 ($224,089) ($250,755) $279,291 ($489,954) ($489,954)

Variance - % Change (6.4%) 2.4% 7.8% 2.6% 2.1% (5.5%) (4.0%) (4.9%) 0.2% (3.7%) (3.7%) 4.0% (0.6%) (0.6%)

1 Forecasted weekend construction related closures as provided by the November 2016 Forecast.


3 Reported values for Jul-Dec are based on Customer Service Center resolved transactions data as of April 25, 2016, Jan-Jun are based on adjusted monthly revenue from the ICRS-VPS and TCS AVI reports.

4 Values based on the November 2016 Forecast. The forecasted adjusted gross toll revenue equals the gross toll revenue potential minus

the adjustments, modified on actual payment splits.

5 Reported adjusted gross toll revenue corresponds to "tolling revenue" values reported in WSDOT annual financial statements. Values may change to align with year-end reports.

$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

$7,000,000

$8,000,000

$9,000,000


Gro

ss T

oll

Re

ven

ue

Reported Gross TollRevenue Potential

Reported AdjustedGross Toll Revenue

Forecasted Gross TollRevenue Potential

Forecasted AdjustedGross Toll Revenue

Notes:

Adopted 9-20-17 23

Figure 19: FY 2018 SR 520 Reported Toll Transactions Compared to November 2016 Forecast

Figure 20: FY 2018 SR 520 Reported Toll Revenue Compared to November 2016 Forecast

TOLL TRANSACTIONS Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18Fiscal Year

To Date

Annual

Total

Forecasted 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 12.00

Reported 1.00 1.00

Forecasted 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 22.80

Reported 0.50 0.50

Forecasted Transactions 3 2,035,000 2,132,000 2,006,000 2,117,000 1,958,000 1,948,000 2,034,000 1,865,000 2,183,000 2,082,000 2,243,000 2,203,000 2,035,000 24,806,000

Reported Transactions 4 2,093,627 2,093,627

Variance From Forecast 58,627 58,627

Variance - % Change 2.9% 2.9%

Reported Good To Go! Pass - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.0%

Reported Good To Go! Plate - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.0%

Reported Pay By Mail - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.0%

Reported Good To Go! Pass - #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A -

Reported Good To Go! Plate - #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A -

Reported Pay By Mail Transactions - #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A -

Reported Transactions - Unclassified for three months2,093,627 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 2,093,627

1 Forecasted weekend construction related closures as provided by the November 2016 Forecast. A value of 1.0 represents a 24 hour (12 AM to 12 AM) two-way weekend closure of SR 520.

2 Forecasted weekday night construction related closures as provided by the November 2016 Forecast. A value of 1.0 represents a 6 hour (11 PM to 5 AM) two-way weekday night closure of SR 520.


4 Reported values are based on total monthly transactions adjusted for non-revenue and duplicate transactions.

Weekend

Closure Days 1

Weeknight

Closures 2

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2,200,000

2,400,000


Toll

Tran

sact

ions

ReportedTransactions -Unclassified forthree months

Reported Pay ByMail Transactions

Reported Good ToGo! Plate

Reported Good ToGo! Pass

ForecastedTransactions

Notes:

GROSS TOLL REVENUE Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18Fiscal Year

To Date

Annual

Total

Forecasted 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 12.00

Reported 1.00 1.00

Forecasted 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 22.80

Reported 0.50 0.50

Forecasted Potential 3 $7,153,000 $7,619,000 $7,037,000 $7,488,000 $6,928,000 $6,779,000 $7,217,000 $6,615,000 $7,704,000 $7,348,000 $7,938,000 $7,763,000 $7,153,000 $87,589,000

Reported Potential 4 $7,437,740 $7,437,740

Variance From Forecast $284,740 $284,740


Forecasted Adjusted 5 $6,129,000 $7,008,000 $6,472,000 $6,887,000 $6,373,000 $6,236,000 $6,639,000 $6,084,000 $7,086,000 $6,760,000 $7,301,000 $7,588,000 $6,129,000 $80,563,000

Reported Adjusted 6 $4,903,365 $4,903,365

Variance From Forecast ($1,225,635) ($1,225,635)

Variance - % Change (20.0%) (20.0%)

1 Forecasted weekend construction related closures as provided by the November 2016 Forecast. A value of 1.0 represents a 24 hour (12 AM to 12 AM) two-way weekend closure of SR 520.

2 Forecasted weekday night construction related closures as provided by the November 2016 Forecast. A value of 1.0 represents a 6 hour (11 PM to 5 AM) two-way weekday night closure of SR 520.


4 Reported values for Jul-Dec are based on Customer Service Center resolved transactions data as of April 25, 2016, Jan-Jun are based on adjusted monthly revenue from the ICRS-VPS and TCS AVI reports.

5 Values based on the November 2016 Forecast. The forecasted adjusted gross toll revenue equals the gross toll revenue potential minus the adjustments, modified on the actual payment splits

6 Reported adjusted gross toll revenue corresponds to "tolling revenue" values reported in WSDOT annual financial statements. Values may change to align with year-end reports.

Weekend

Closure Days 1

Weeknight

Closures 2

$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

$7,000,000

$8,000,000

$9,000,000


Gro

ss To

ll R

even

ue

Reported Gross TollRevenue Potential

Reported AdjustedGross Toll Revenue

Forecasted Gross TollRevenue Potential

Forecasted AdjustedGross Toll Revenue

Notes:

Adopted 9-20-17 24

Actual vs forecast performance for SR 167 High Occupancy Toll (HOT) Lanes

The SR 167 HOT Lanes forecast in September 2017 forecast is a no change forecast from the June 2017 forecast.

SR 167 actual transaction and revenue performance continue to outperform the forecast. Please see the table below for its actual vs forecast comparison in June, July, and August 2017.

Figure 21: SR 167 Reported Toll Transactions and Revenues Compared to June 2017 Forecast

Actual vs forecast performance I-405 Express Toll Lanes (ETLs)

The I-405 ETLs forecasts for FY 2018 and beyond in September 2017 is a no change forecast from the November 2016 forecast.

As mentioned in the toll Overview, in FY 2017 we have observed lower than forecasted actual

performance. The recently observed trend will be reflected in the coming November 201 forecast update.

During June 2017 forecast we reduced I-405 forecast in FY 2017 based on the actuals through May 2017 plus one-month estimate for June 2017. June 2017 actual toll revenue was $2.26 million, 9.8% above our estimated value of $2.06 million in June forecast.

In July 2017 (FY 2018), I-405 ETLs toll trips were 2% above the June 2017 forecast (unchanged from November 2016) while Carpool HOV 2+/3+ exempt trips were 12% above the forecast. All measures of revenue were below the forecast with gross toll revenue potential and adjusted gross toll revenue lower by approximately $105,000 and $486,000 respectively. The large difference between the forecast and reported values is primarily attributed to delays in image based transaction processing outlined in the toll Overview.

Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17

3-month

VarianceJune 2017 Forecast 135,800 133,000 142,000 410,800

Actuals 145,461 132,956 148,792 427,209

Variance 9,661 (44) 6,792 16,409

Variance % 7.1% 0.0% 4.8% 4.0%

June 2017 Forecast 258,900$ 227,000$ 242,000$ 727,900$

Actuals 345,524$ 267,016$ 316,607$ 929,148$

Variance 86,624$ 40,016$ 74,607$ 201,248$

Variance % 33.5% 17.6% 30.8% 27.6%

Toll

Revenues

Toll

Transactions

Table: SR 167 Reported Toll Transactions and Revenues Compared to June 2017 Forecast

Adopted 9-20-17 25

Figure 22: FY 2018 I-405 Reported Toll Trips Compared to June 2017 Forecast

Figure 23: FY 2018 I-405 Reported Toll Revenue Compared to June 2017 Forecast

Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18Fiscal Year

To Date

Annual

Total

Forecasted Toll Trips1 842,000 959,000 801,000 915,000 777,000 757,000 838,000 726,000 911,000 864,000 931,000 916,000 842,000 10,237,000

Reported Toll Trips2 857,318 857,318



Reported Good To Go! Pass3- - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Reported Good To Go! Plate3- - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Reported Pay By Mail3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Forecasted HOV Carpool Exempt Trips1 336,000 382,000 319,000 365,000 310,000 302,000 334,000 289,000 363,000 344,000 371,000 364,000 336,000 4,079,000

Reported HOV Carpool Exempt Trips2 375,840 375,840



Forecasted Toll and HOV Carpool Trips 1,178,000 1,341,000 1,120,000 1,280,000 1,087,000 1,059,000 1,172,000 1,015,000 1,274,000 1,208,000 1,302,000 1,280,000 1,178,000 14,316,000

Reported Toll and HOV Carpool Trips 1,233,158 1,233,158



Reported Toll and HOV Carpool Trips 1,233,158 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 1,233,158

Reported Good To Go! Pass - #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A -

Reported Good To Go! Plate - #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A -

Reported Pay By Mail Trips - #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A -

Reported Trips - Unclassified for three months857,318 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 857,318

Total Forecasted Trips 1,178,000 1,341,000 1,120,000 1,280,000 1,087,000 1,059,000 1,172,000 1,015,000 1,274,000 1,208,000 1,302,000 1,280,000 1,178,000

Axis Labels Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

DO NOT

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forecast Actuals

link to table

Forecasted

Toll Trips1

Forecasted

HOV Carpool

Exempt

Trips1

Reported

HOV Carpool

Exempt

Trips2

Reported

Good To Go!

Pass

Reported

Good To Go!

Plate

Reported Pay

By Mail Trips

Reported

Trips -

Unclassified

for three Jul-15 842,000 336,000

375,840 - - - 857,318

Aug-15 959,000 382,000 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Sep-15 801,000 319,000 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Oct-15 915,000 365,000 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Nov-15 777,000 310,000 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Dec-15 757,000 302,000 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Jan-16 838,000 334,000 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Feb-16 726,000 289,000 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Mar-16 911,000 363,000 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/AApr-16

864,000 344,000 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

May-16 931,000 371,000 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/AJun-16 916,000 364,000 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

1 Values based on the Nov 16 Forecast.

2 Reported values are based on total monthly trips adjusted for non-revenue and duplicate trips. HOV carpool volumes include operations during toll hours only.

3 Trips by payment method are based on values extracted from the monthly Toll Business Report and are subject to change as transactions are resolved.

Notes:


0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

Toll

Trip

s

Reported Good To Go!Pass

Reported Good To Go!Plate

Reported Pay By MailTrips

Reported Trips -Unclassified for threemonths

Reported HOVCarpool Exempt Trips2

Forecasted Toll Trips1

Forecasted HOVCarpool Exempt Trips1

Fore

cast

Repo

rted

Adopted 9-20-17 26

Federal Funds Revenue

Overview

After state funds, the largest source of transportation revenue is federal funds. The Federal Funds forecast contains the formula funds distributed by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to Washington State Department of Transportation for highway purposes. Federal funds reported in this forecast are based on federal fiscal year (FFY) which begins on October 1.

On December 4, 2015, President Obama signed into law a new transportation reauthorization bill, Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act, providing a five-year extension of the federal surface transportation programs. The FAST Act provides over $305 billion of funding for Federal-aid transportation programs for federal fiscal years (FFY) 2016 through 2020. This new multiyear reauthorization bill came after a string of five (5) short-term extensions of the previous transportation reauthorization, Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century (MAP-21). In September 2016 and subsequent federal forecasts are based on the Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act.

FHWA – Highways Forecast

Apportionment Forecast

The September 2017 total apportionment forecast for FFY 2017 is $731.9 million. The FFY 2017 apportionment forecast is based on Notice N4510.812 dated December 30, 2017 and has incorporated the 2017 rescission of unobligated balances as stated in the Omnibus Appropriations package for FFY 2017.

The FFY 2018 anticipated apportionment amount effective on October 1, 2017 is based on FHWA Notice “N 4510.815 Advance Notification of Federal-Aid Highway Funds to be Apportioned on October 1, 2017.” The notice provides the anticipated apportionments of the National Highway Performance Program, Surface Transportation Block Grant Program, Highway Safety Improvement Program, Railway-Highway Crossings Program, Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement Program, Metropolitan Planning Program, and National Highway Freight Program.

The apportionment forecast for FFY 2019 – FFY 2020 will be based on the FAST Act state by state program funds distribution tables produced by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) dated December 1, 2015. These distribution tables represent FHWA’s current interpretation of the FAST Act annual funding levels and program distributions. Future forecasts will be updated as official distribution notices are released by FHWA.

The baseline forecast for FFY 2021 through FFY 2029 will assume an annual growth of federal revenues matching the annual Washington State fuel consumption growth rates.

Obligation Authority (OA) Forecast

Obligation authority (OA) (a.k.a. spending authority or obligation limitation) is the ceiling or total amount of commitments of federal apportionment that can be made within a year. Congress sets this ceiling or limit as part of the federal appropriation bills to control federal expenditures annually.

The total OA for this June 2017 forecast is $729.4 million, which is the same as the March 2017 OA forecast.

The baseline CORE OA for 2018 throughout the forecast horizon will be set at 93.5% of apportionment, which is consistent with the historical Washington State CORE OA distribution.

Adopted 9-20-17 27

TOTAL OA forecast for FFY 2016 and throughout the forecast horizon will be set at 98% of apportionment which is consistent with historical Washington State OA distributions.

Rescission of FAST ACT Funds:

The Omnibus Appropriations package for FFY 2017 includes an $857 million rescission of unobligated contract authority. The rescission, which must be carried out proportionally in affected program categories, will be based on balances as of May 31, 2017, and will take effect on June 30, 2017. Washington’s share of this rescission was $10.5 million.

The FAST Act also includes a $7.6 billion rescission of unobligated Federal-aid Highway contract authority in FFY 2020. An estimate of Washington’s share of the national rescission is $110 million of unobligated apportionment balances and this is included in the September forecast for FFY 2020. This estimate is based on FHWA projections which are updated annually.

Figure 24: FFY 2017 – FFY2020 FHWA Highways Forecast (In millions)

September 2017 Federal Highway Forecast

FFY 2017 FFY 2018 FFY 2019 FFY 2020

Total WA Apportionment $731.9 $734.2 $750.3 $657.9

Total WA Obligation Authority $729.4 $719.4 $735.3 $752.5

FTA - Public Transportation Federal Funds

Overview

The FAST Act authorized $11.8 billion in FY2016 for public transportation programs, an amount rising to $12.6 billion in FY2020 nationwide. Typically, about 80% of federal public transportation program funding comes from the mass transit account of the highway trust fund and 20% comes from the general fund of the U.S. Treasury.

Public Transportation Federal Apportionment Funds Forecast

The September 2017 Public Transportation federal funds forecast is based on the FAST Act signed into law by President Obama on December 4, 2015 and the 2016 Federal Apportionment Notice of Public Transportation federal funds on the federal registry. The September 2017 apportionment forecast for FFY 2017 is based on this notice. The apportionment for FFY 2016 has been updated to reflect actual apportionment distribution.

The forecast for 2018 through 2020 is based on the FAST Act program funds distribution tables produced by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA). A 3-year average of Washington’s proportionate share of the formula program funds is applied to the national totals on the FTA distribution tables for these years. Total federal public transportation formula program funds for FFY 2016 were $18.6 million and growing to $19.7 million by FFY2020.

The public transportation formula federal program forecast for FFY 2021 – 2029 is being grown annually using the Washington State Fuel Consumption forecasted growth rates.

Adopted 9-20-17 28

Figure 25: FFY 2017 – FFY2020 FTA – Public Transportation Forecast (In thousands)

September 2017 FTA – Public Transportation Federal Forecast

FFY 2017 FFY 2018 FFY 2019 FFY 2020

Statewide Planning Program $495.0 $506.3 $516.0 $527.0

Enhanced Mobility for Elderly and Persons with Disabilities

$2,770.0 $2,828.0 $2,888.0 $2,949.0

Nonurbanized Area Formula Program $12,917.0 $13,186.0 $13,465.0 $13,751.0

Rural Transit Assistance Program $204.0 $209.0 $214.0 $219.0

State Safety Oversight Program $521.0 $532.0 $544.0 $555.0

Bus and Bus Facilities Program $1,530.0 $1,562.0 $1,595.0 $1,629.0

FTA – Washington State Ferries (WSF) Federal Funds

Federal assistance to Washington State Ferries (WSF) is provided primarily through the public transportation program administered by the Department of Transportation’s Federal Transit Administration (FTA). The federal public transportation program was authorized from FY2016 through FY2020 as part of the FAST Act.

WSF Federal Apportionment Funds Forecast

The September 2017 WSF federal funds forecast is based on the FTA - FAST Act fact sheets for both the State of Good Repair Grants (5337) and the Urbanized Area Formula Program Grants (5307) programs. These fact sheets show the annual national total apportionment for these programs for FFY 2016 through FFY 2020. Washington State’s level of apportionment of these programs for FFY 2016 is distributed based on the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) split letter dated June 28, 2016. This letter shows the amount of formula funding received by all eligible recipients including WSF. The FFY 2017 – FFY 2020 WSF formula federal funds forecast is based on maintaining the same proportionate share of the federal total received by Washington State in FFY 2016.

Washington State Ferries (WSF) Federal Apportionment Funds Forecast

The June 2017 FTA – WSF forecast for 2017 through 2020 is based on the FAST Act program funds distribution tables produced by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA). A three-year average (1.72%) was applied to the national totals on the FTA distribution tables for those years for Washington’s proportionate share of the formula program funds.

Total federal WSF formula program funds for FFY 2017 are anticipated to be $12.1 million and growing to $12.5 million by FFY2020. In FFY 2017, we also anticipate $10 million in discretionary funds for a total FTA funds for WSF at $22.1 million. Additional discretionary FTA funds for WSF are not anticipated in future years.

The long-term WSF formula federal program forecast for FFY 2021 – 2027 will be grown annually using the Washington State Fuel Consumption forecasted growth rates. Total federal public transportation formula program funds are anticipated to grow to $12.9 million by FFY 2027.

Adopted 9-20-17 29

Figure 26: FFY 2017 – FFY2020 FTA Washington State Ferries Forecast (In millions)

September 2017 FTA – Washington State Ferries

Federal Forecast

FFY 2017 FFY 2018 FFY 2019 FFY 2020

Urbanized Area Formula Program Grants (5307)

$5.2 $5.2 $5.2 $5.2

State of Good Repair Grants (5307)

$6.9 $7.0 $7.1 $7.3

Discretionary and Allocated Programs

$10.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

Vehicles Miles Traveled Annual Forecast

Overview

Each September TRFC forecast, a new statewide vehicle miles traveled (VMT) annual forecast is

completed. WSDOT bases each new forecast on the latest statewide annual VMT actuals from the WSDOT

Statewide Travel & Collision Data Office (STCDO). They provide estimated “actual” Vehicle Miles Travelled

data and the latest year in this forecast is fiscal year 2016.

WSDOT coordinated a work group in 2009 to develop an annual forecast model for statewide

VMT. The statewide VMT forecast model has the following independent economic variables.

Washington employment

Washington motor vehicle registrations Washington gas prices

The forecast model considers three separate types of impacts on vehicle miles traveled: economic activity,

vehicles registered, and gas prices. Since the original model was developed, the VMT forecast model has

been slightly modified in 2014 by changing the functional form of the model to be a first difference log-log

form and the history of VMT has been shortened to begin in fiscal year 1990.

In this September forecast, the statewide VMT forecast model has been updated for the latest

VMT actuals for FY 2016 and also for changes in the key economic variables used in the model. Figure 27

compares the September 2016 and September 2017 VMT projections.

Adopted 9-20-17 30

Figure 27: Comparison of the Vehicle Miles Traveled Forecast: September 2016 vs.

2017

“Actual” Vehicle Miles Travelled for FY 2016 came in at 60.228 billion miles, 2.39% higher than FY 2015 and

1% higher than last year’s forecast for FY 2016.

The current forecast is slightly higher than the previous forecast for 2017 to 2043. This is due primarily to:

Higher employment projections since Sept 2016

Higher projected vehicle registrations since Sept 2016

Lower projected fuel costs

Higher start point, with 2016 actuals coming in above previous forecast

The September 2017 forecast for VMT is about 1% higher in the short-term and the difference

grows over time from the September 2016 forecast. The current forecast calls for low year-over-year VMT

short-term growth for 2017-2022 with an average annual growth rate is 0.73%. The current forecast calls for

year-over-year long-term minimal decline in VMT for 2023-2043 with an average annual growth rate is -

0.15%. The current forecast year over year decline in the long-term is not as pronounced as last year’s

projections and the decline does not start as soon as the last forecast.

Adopted 9-20-17 31

Forecast Contacts Washington State Department of Transportation unless otherwise noted

Economic Variables and Fuel Price Forecast

Brian Calkins, M.S. WSDOT-HQ 360-705-7991 [email protected]

Motor Fuel Tax Revenue Forecast

Brian Calkins, M.S. WSDOT-HQ 360-705-7991 [email protected]

Motor Vehicle Licenses, Permits & Fees Revenue Forecast

David Ding, WSDOT-HQ 360-705-7502, [email protected] 4

Alice Vogel, Washington State Department of Licensing, 360-902-3986 [email protected]

Reinhold Groepler, Ph.D., Washington State Department of Licensing, 360-902-3704, [email protected]

Driver Related Revenue Forecasts


Robert A. Plue, Washington State Department of Licensing, 360-902-3643 [email protected]

Jean Du, Ph.D. Washington State Department of Licensing, 360-902-3641 [email protected]

Reinhold Groepler, Ph.D., Washington State Department of Licensing, 360-902-3704, [email protected]

Other Transportation Related Revenue Forecast

Vehicle Sales & Rental Car Tax

Lance Carey, Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, 360-570-6104 [email protected]

Studded Tire Fee

Kasi Reeves, WSDOT-HQ 360-705-7935 [email protected]

Business and Other Revenue Heather Jones, WSDOT-HQ 360-705-7944 [email protected] Mary Thygesen, WSP (360) 596-4044 [email protected]

Aeronautics Revenue

Brian Calkins, M.S. WSDOT 360-705-7991 [email protected]


Washington State Ferries Ridership and Revenue Forecast

Ray Deardorf, WSDOT – Ferry Division 206-515-3491 [email protected]

Toll Operations Traffic and Revenue Yanming Yao, WSDOT-Toll Division, 206-464-1196, [email protected]

Federal Funds Forecast

Kasi Reeves, WSDOT-HQ 360-705-7935 [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]













Adopted 9-20-17 32

Appendix

Table Related to the September 2017 Forecast

Adopted 9-20-17 33

Impact to Select Transportation Accounts

Figure 28: 2015 Transportation Revenue Package with the September 2017 Forecast Compared to the September 2015 Forecast

* Intermittent-Use trailer fee impact is the gross impact from the new trailer fee not the net impact In 2015 lawmakers passed 2SSB 5987 which was the new 2015 Transportation Revenue package. The

new revenue package has a variety of fee increases with the largest tax increase being from the motor fuel tax increase. The new legislation also authorized various transfers of funds and tax credits.

Transportation Revenue Bill - 2ESSB 5987 &

SHB 1480

Forecast Chg from Forecast Chg from Forecast Chg from

dollars in millions Sep 17 Sep 15 Sep 17 Sep 15 Sep 17 Sep 15

Revenues

Motor Vehicle Fuel Taxes Increase (7 cents 8/1/15 & 4.9 cents

7/1/16); Handling Loss Elimination and Increase in Off-highway

Refunds by 11.9 cents 809.1 15.1 824.3 21.6 4,161.0 135.7

Vehicles paying Weight-based Registration Fee (All Trucks) 81.5 11.0 83.2 12.8 498.6 56.6

Vehicles paying Freight Project Fee (Trucks >10,000 lbs) 32.5 11.4 33.2 12.1 167.1 60.7

Passenger Vehicle Weight Fees 186.5 5.2 194.5 7.8 1,298.0 (9.3)

Intermittent-Use Trailers ($187.50) 0.4 (29.5) 0.9 (6.0) 8.4 (49.6)

Plug-in Vehicle Renewal Fee ($100) 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.3 4.5 2.3

Electric/Plug-in Vehicle Renewal Fee ($50) 2.4 1.0 3.5 1.9 31.6 22.8

Title Service Fee $12 (Vessels) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 1.0

Registration Service Fee $5 (Vessels) 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.9 0.3

Commercial Driver's License (CDL) Fees HIGHWAY SAFETY 3.0 (0.8) 2.9 0.2 14.6 (0.0)

Enhanced Driver's License Fees (EDL/EID) HIGHWAY SAFETY 2.8 (1.0) 3.9 0.2 20.5 1.7

DOL Report of Sale Fees 5.2 (0.0) 4.8 0.0 24.4 0.1

Studded Tire Fee 1.0 0.0 1.0 (0.0) 5.0 (0.2)

Total Revenues 1,125.5 12.6 1,153.5 51.1 6,236.3 222.2

Distributions

Motor Vehicle Fund (108) 71.8 (10.5) 75.1 13.2 443.2 58.5

Transportation 2003 Nickel Account (550) 6.0 1.2 6.1 1.3 34.9 6.1

Transportation Partnership Account (09H) 13.1 2.6 13.4 2.9 76.8 13.5

Connecting Washington Account (NEW) 809.1 15.1 824.3 21.6 4,160.5 135.2

Puget Sound Capital Construction Account (099) - - - - - -

Puget Sound Ferry Operations Account (109) 1.6 (0.0) 1.6 0.3 9.2 1.1

Capital Vessel Replacement Account (18J) 3.6 0.1 3.3 0.2 17.0 1.6

Multimodal Transportation Account (218) 187.9 4.0 195.6 6.2 1,303.8 (17.9)

Special Category C Account (215) - - - - - -

License Plate Technology Account (06T) 0.1 (0.0) 0.1 (0.0) 0.5 (0.0)

DOL Services Account (201) 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.5 0.1

WSP Highway Account (081) 25.5 1.8 26.1 4.9 149.8 20.9

Highway Safety Fund (106) 6.4 (1.8) 7.4 0.5 37.9 2.0

Rural Arterial Trust Account (102) 0.05 0.03 0.08 0.06 0.5 0.4

Transportation Improvement Accounty (144) 0.05 0.03 0.08 0.06 0.5 0.4

Total Distributions 1,125.5 12.6 1,153.6 51.3 6,236.3 222.2

(2017-2027)

10-Year Period

2017-19 2019-21

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