trends in campaigning, and how ncvo foresight can help
TRANSCRIPT
Foresight can help you to…
understand how the world is changing
around you
and therefore make more strategic
campaign decisions
It’s a different way of thinking…
What might the campaigning headlines be in:
2015 ?
2020 ?
2025 ?
Identify your key ‘drivers’…
trends or forces outside your campaign
which could have a positive or negativeimpact on it’s future
It’s a three part process…
• What key drivers may affect your organisation and its beneficiaries in future ?
• So what are the implications ?
• Now what should you do about it ?
Drivers can be political, social, economic, technological…
All have
campaign
implications
You already
know a lot
Political Economic
Social Technical/ Technological
“The future is already here -
- it's just unevenly distributed."
William Gibson - inventor of cyberspace
Our free website has 100+ drivers
So, what do we think is coming in campaigning?
Growth of consumer activismConsumer actions to get change or express values.
Blurring lifestyle choices with campaigning.
‘Me’ actions versus ‘we’ actions?
Fits into hectic lives.
Less sustained affiliation?
Raises awareness, which aids the next stage.
Policies & campaigns about individual responsibility.
Empowering? Disempowering?
Informed public, but limited power versus government,
corporations and global institutions.
Recession and ethical consumerism.
More collective action? Demands for a government lead?
More fluid activism
Political parties decline, but people aren’t apathetic
Rise of single issues.
Individualism & more complex identities.
Engaging with many issues, moving regularly.
Time-poor consumer action & e-campaigning.
Emphasises individual choice, not ideology.
De-politicised campaigning?
The young have ‘portfolios’ of political engagement
- without paying membership fees.
Growth of new technologiesInteractive, social networking, personalised.
More ways to reach, connect, organise & act.
Technology can build off-line movements.
Un-personal or invasive is a turnoff.
Length of engagement may decrease.
It’s raised the bar: Eg massive e-petitions
Risky loss of control.
Needs sustained engagement & investment.
The digital divide & other new divides.
‘Professional’ campaigningNational Occupational Standards/courses.
Who drives it: trustees, funders, public?
Showing impact & value for money.
Labour capacity building £ has gone.
Insider campaigns under Labour.
Tories now support ‘professionalisation’.
But do we want ‘transferable skills?’
Professional does not equal paid
Eg The Occupy movement
Increase in competition & coalitionsNew technology. ‘Mayfly’ single-issues.
More players and coalitions.
Who stole our clothes? Eg Dove Real Beauty.
Blurs public understanding.
Encourages short term engagement.
Awareness & consumer action, not direct action.
Marketing products & raising awareness eg. ‘Green
My Apple’. Corporate responsibility.
Celebrities / tabloids: small & edgy causes won’t benefit.
Global movements v superpowers & corporates.
How big can a platform be? Eg Make Poverty History
Marginalisation of dissentTerrorism legitimising security,
surveillance, invasive technology,
Serious Organised Crimes & Police Act.
Protest from new quarters (eg tabloids).
Mobile technology can expose
& challenge suppression.
NVDA & media (eg Plane Stupid).
Recession? Strikes? The end of ‘insider’ campaigns?
More independence and legitimacy?
