ncvo foresight: taking the fear out of change
TRANSCRIPT
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Foresight is…understanding your changing world
& so making better decisions
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Spotting the storm before it hits (buying you time to plan)
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Foresight helps you reduce risk – by anticipating
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Foresight helps you choose a hill so you can plan the right moves to get there
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it helps avoid surprises
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Foresight helps you: stay innovative
stay relevant
shape your future, not just react
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so it goes before planning…
decide what you’re about
evaluate, learn…
do it !
foresight
spot options, make choices
plan
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...not after planning !
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It pays to make time for foresight[or you’ll always be fire-fighting]
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some healthy scepticism
‘there’s no time for this !’
‘either we know what’s coming, or we can’t !’
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we should have seen it coming
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but so should they
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‘It’s not the strongest or most intelligent that survives,it’s the most adaptable’
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So, how do you do foresight ?
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It’s a three-part process
What trends or forces (drivers)may affect your organisation or its beneficiaries ?(for good or ill)
So what are the implications ?
Now what to do about it ?
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We make it easy: 100 drivers (trends) at 3s4.org.uk
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Spotting drivers (the What)
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eg: multi-crunch of economy, climate, natural resources, ageing
(+ stubborn, rising social need)
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PlanDevelop
scenarios
Develop tactics and
policies Review
HIGH IMPACT
LOWER IMPACT
UN
CER
TA
INC
ER
TA
IN
Ranking drivers
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Working out driver implications (the So What)
External implications Internal implications
Users & theirneeds
Funders & their priorities
Relationships & influence
Workforce (paid, volunteer) & Trustees
The organisation’s work (services & activities)
Governance including accountability &evaluation
Systems, Skills,Technology(communications, administration, management etc)
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How to respond (the Now What)
Improvements
Innovations
Improvisations
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We can coach you, scan for you, bring you & others together to study a shared threat or opportunity, and have lots of downloadable materials to do it yourself
www.3s4.org.uk
twitter: @NCVOForesight
www.ncvo-vol.org.uk/resources