trican ir presentation - october 2018 final · 2018-10-01 · canadian industry dynamics –...
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INVESTOR PRESENTATIONOctober 2018
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS
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This document contains statements that constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. These forward-looking statements include, among others, the Company’s prospects, expected revenues, expenses, profits, expected developments and strategies for its operations, and other expectations, beliefs, plans, goals, objectives, assumptions, information and statements about possible future events, conditions, results of operations or performance. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as “anticipate,” “achieve”, “achievable,” “believe,” “estimate,” “expect,” “intend”, “plan”, “planned”, and other similar terms and phrases. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions that involve a number of risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. These risks and uncertainties include: fluctuating prices for crude oil and natural gas; changes in drilling activity; general global economic, political and business conditions; weather conditions; regulatory changes; and availability of products, qualified personnel, manufacturing capacity and raw materials. If any of these uncertainties materialize, or if assumptions are incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those expected.
TRICAN & INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT SUMMARY
Largest Canadian pressure pumping company• Industry-leading fracturing and cementing service lines
Included in S&P TSX Index
Shareholder returns through NCIB • Repurchased 10% of the Company’s shares from October 2017
through October 2018
Renewed the NCIB program effective October 3, 2018 to purchase 10% of the Company’s shares
Existing equipment activations provide opportunity for incremental ROIC (minimal investment required for reactivations – just staffing)
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INVESTMENT SUMMARY
Substantial leverage on infrastructure and fixed cost structure
Capital structure provides low cost of funding for incremental investment
Experienced and motivated work force supported by an executive leadership team with over 175 years of combined oilfield services experience
Upside on US growth through investment in Keane (valued at $86 million at end of Q2)
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CANADIAN NCIB ACTIVTY
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Completed NCIBs between January and June 2018 for TSX-listed companies(1)
(100%)
(50%)
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Average: 11.2%
Average: 0.6%
Companies 10 13 26 11 30 21 111
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 YTD
60
2115 15
0% - 25% 25% - 50% 50% - 75% 75% - 100%
NCIB UTILIZATION BY MONTH OF EXPIRATION (2018 YTD)
ONE-YEAR SHARE PERFORMANCE FROM ANN. OF NCIB DISTRIBUTION OF NCIB UTILIZATION
NCIB Utilization
One
-Yea
r Sha
re P
rice
Cha
nge
> 50% Utilization
<= 50% Utilization
> 50% Utilization Average
<= 50% Utilization Average
Only 15 out of the 111 companies who completed a 12-month NCIB between January 2018 and June 2018 had over 75% utilization
Median Range (1st – 3rd Quartile)
Trican(2)(3)
3rd Quartile
1st Quartile
Median
94% as of August 30, 2018
Provided by BMO Capital MarketsSource: TSX eReviewNote: Analysis includes data for NICIBs completed between January 2018 and June 2018 (all industries).1. Excludes preferred shares, convertible securities, and companies which were acquired during the 12-month NCIB period.2. NCIB utilization through August 30, 2018.3. Price return from announcement date on September 28, 2017 to August 30, 2018.
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Trican is a Canadian-focused, energy services company, which provides an array of specialized products, equipment and services for the drilling and completions cycle of oil and gas exploration and development
Customer
Full Cycle Technical Expertise
Engineering SupportReservoir ExpertiseLaboratory Services
Drilling Cycle
Cementing Services
Completion Cycle
FracturingCoil Tubing
NitrogenFluid Management
Acidizing
Production Cycle
Coil Tubing Acidizing
Pipeline ServicesIndustrial ServicesChemical Services
Remedial Cementing
WHAT WE DO
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Market Leading Positions Canadian market leader in fracturing services (based on
adjusted EBITDA margin and market share) Canadian market leader in cementing services (based
on market share – no competitor margin data available) Supporting service lines: coil tubing, nitrogen, acid, water
management services, pipeline and industrial services
Strong Financial Position Trailing 12 month revenues of $1.1 billion Market capitalization $728 million (September 27, 2018) Total debt of $59 million (June 30, 2018) Financial investment in Keane valued at CDN$86 million
June 30, 2018 (underlying investment is NYSE listed company Keane Group Inc. ticker symbol: FRAC)
Fracturing, 72%
Cementing, 15%
Acid, Coil, Nitrogen, 8%
Fluid Management,
4%
Industrial, 2%
OUR CANADIAN MARKET AND FINANCIAL POSITION
Trailing 12 Month Revenues: Service Line Breakdown
OUR FOCUS
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To achieve top quartile ROIC in our sector
- Maintain market leading position in Fracturing and Cementing service lines- Strengthen auxiliary service lines (Coiled Tubing, Nitrogen, Water Management)
- Growth in existing or complimentary, less capital intensive, less cyclical services lines (i.e. Production & Pipeline Services)
- Leverage strong technical expertise into additional markets or services
- Disciplined investment into future growth – ensure ROIC hurdle rates are met- Return value to shareholders through Normal Course Issuer Bid (share
buyback program)
- Reduce costs for ourselves and our clients through efficiency improvements and scale
Strengthen Existing
Business
Growth
Share-holder Return
Cost Control & Efficiency
Gains
FOCUSED GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE
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Horn River Shale
Montney Shale
Bakken Shale
Cardium Tight Oil
Viking Tight Oil
Lower Shaunavon Tight Oil
GRANDE PRAIRIE
WHITECOURTHINTON
FORT ST. JOHN
NISKU LLOYDMINSTER
RED DEER
BROOKS ESTEVAN
British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan
Deep Basin
Duvernay Shale
DRAYTON VALLEY
CALGARY
Manitoba
Spearfish
MEDICINE HAT
CANADIAN INDUSTRY DYNAMICS – INCREASING WELL INTENSITY
2017 well count 36% below 2014 levels
7,000 – 8,000 wells today equates to 2014 well count levels in terms of fracturing equipment demand
We expect intensity to increase 10% to 15% per year• The available 2018 data as included above is weighted to higher intensity customers at this time
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Source: Canadian Discovery Source: CAODC
10,853 10,924
5,376
3,963
6,959 6,503
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E
WCSB - Wells Drilled
647 813
1,329 1,384
1,849
3,119
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
WCSB - Tonnes / Well
CANADIAN INDUSTRY DYNAMICS – FRACTURING COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
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Source: Competitor company reports, internal company data, and internal estimates
Hydraulic Horsepower (HHP) Capacity Idled Available Active Crewed
Trican 671,850 13,050 658,800 455,000
Competitor A 355,000 33,000 322,000 322,000
Competitor B 297,500 72,500 225,000 225,000
Competitor C 270,000 - 270,000 135,000
Competitor D 250,000 - 250,000 145,000
Competitor E 240,000 - 240,000 175,000
Competitor F 80,000 - 80,000 50,000
Competitor G 50,000 - 50,000 50,000
2,232,350 192,450 2,039,900 1,557,000
Estimated current demand: 1,400,000 HP
We estimate 20% - 25% of equipment in Canada is not suited for high-intensity plays (Montney, Duvernay and Deep Basin)
CANADIAN INDUSTRY DYNAMICS – TRICAN’S COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
More than 50% of Trican’s fleet is continuous duty pumps, most efficient style of fracturing pump, designed for high-intensity plays:
• Positions Trican to service growing, high-intensity plays
• Supports Trican’s continued leading Canadian fracturing market position as measured by both market share and margin- Fracturing margins in Q1 of 21% (25% with fluid ends expense
adjusted to match Canadian peer accounting treatment)
• Will allow Trican to continue to efficiently service the highest intensity resource plays: Montney, Duvernay and Deep Basin (estimated to account for ~ 80% of the required HHP demand in Canada)
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OPERATING ENVIRONMENT – PRICING, LABOUR & REPAIRS EXPENSE
Pricing: YTD 2018 pricing consistent with 2017
exit pricing levels
Q4 2018 pricing dropping as activity dropping in the quarter
Focus on holding 2019 pricing flat to 2018 YTD
Further demand improvements will be required for pricing to improve beyond inflationary increases:• Increased customer budgets• West Coast LNG• Commodity prices sustained at today’s
levels
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Indexed to 2014 pricing levels. Based on equipment revenue per tonne of proppant pumped.
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 2018
Pricing Index
Slight decline reflects the change in job mix
OPERATING ENVIRONMENT – PRICING, LABOUR & REPAIRS EXPENSE
Labour: Remains tight
Guaranteed Q2 and Q3 2018 day rates to match industry practice
Labour wage rates in-line with industry
Not anticipating additional labour cost increases in 2018 (wage inflation from 2017 due to industry compensation alignment as disclosed in Q2 2017 MD&A)
Well size and operating efficiencies allow more efficient labour rates
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Indexed to 2014. Based on personnel expenses per tonne of proppant pumped (component of ‘cost of sales – other’ within the statement of income).
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 2018
Labour Index
OPERATING ENVIRONMENT – PRICING, LABOUR & REPAIRS EXPENSE
Repairs and Maintenance Expense: Increased intensity = increased expense,
built into our pricing models
Stainless steel fluid ends are expensed, not depreciated• Reduced 2018 annual capital expenditures
by $25 to $30 million and expected to increase cash operating expense by the same amount
• Decreases fracturing gross margins by 4%
• Only Canadian company expensing fluid ends (estimate that > 80% of US listed public pressure pumping companies expense fluid ends)
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Indexed to 2014. Based on repairs and maintenance expense per tonne of proppant pumped, a component of ‘cost of sales – other’ within the statement of income.
-100
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 2018
R&M Index
Changed to cash expense of fluid ends, previously depreciation
PERFORMANCE – ROIC and ADJUSTED EBITDA %
Adjusted EBITDA margin of 18% or greater supports project level ROIC hurdles EBITDA can be increased without pricing improvements:
• Activate additional fracturing crews: activating one 24 hour crew; further activations customer dependent
• Maintain high utilization on existing fracturing fleet: adjusted EBITDA margin improvement when utilization at >80%
• Improve coil profitability: investing $9 million to improve deep coil competitiveness, activate 2 units
• Leverage existing IP and technology into new opportunities: sell chemicals and technology in US and internationally
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-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18
Adjusted EBITDA Margin - Trailing 4 Quarters
-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%
Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18
Return on Invested Capital - Trailing 4 Quarters
OUTLOOK & TRICAN ADVANTAGE
OUTLOOK – 2H 2018
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Customer economics in Canadian liquids plays are competitive with all North American shale plays• Driven largely by liquids pricing• CDN / US dollar exchange rate substantially helps customer economics
Anticipate customer capital spending to be down in 2018 relative to 2017; Canadian well count down 7% year-over-year• Gas spending down• Liquids spending up
Continued growth in service intensity• Proppant per well estimated to increase 15% in 2018
OUTLOOK – 2H 2018
Customers shifting spending to oil and liquids plays• Liquids and Oil – H1 2018: 89%• Dry Gas – H1 2018: 11%
Pricing stable through Q3 and dropping in Q4 as competitors dropping pricing
Q3 activity strong from mid-July to end of August• September weakness due to weather and customer pullback in activity• Still have approximately 4 unmanned fleets
Q3 2018 utilization lower than Q3 2017 due to more single well oil/liquids pads and weather issues in September• More move and rig-up days
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OUTLOOK – 4Q 2018
Hard committed on half of active equipment in Q4 2018 and soft committed on the remainder• Industry over-supplied in Q4 as customers finish 2018 budgets
and slow work programs
Currently filling schedule with some price decreases anticipated
Looking at activating two additional coil crews in 2H 2018
Additional equipment additions on hold pending Q1 2019 visibility
Hiring and training staff limiting speed of equipment activations
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OUTLOOK – 2019
Oil and liquids prices remain strong which will drive increased cash flows for our clients
Customer sentiment positive but nothing firm for Q1 yet
Waiting to see how much of increased cash flow gets spent drilling new wells
Visibility poor as customers have not finalized 2019 budgets
Equipment bookings for 2019 will firm up in Q4
Weak pricing entering 2019• Working to hold 2019 pricing to Q3 2018 levels
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COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE – CAREER OPPORTUNITY
One third of employees with more than 5 years of experience Career progression is an attraction to field employees Employee experience key to training and customer service Hiring junior people to staff future fracturing crews
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Technical, Support or Administrative Position
Manager Level Position
Field Supervisor
Field Technical
Field Entry Level
0 to 1 Years31%
1 to 3 Years25%
3 to 5 Years12%
5+ Years32%
Employee Headcounts by Years of Service
COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE - PEOPLE AND CUSTOMER SERVICE
Leveraging more than 20 years of Canadian expertise: Safety: LTI rate of 0.16
Efficiency: Working to increase fracturing pumping hours per day to 16-20 from 10-12 hours per day
Development: Industry-leading training programs• 2017 Total Training Hours: 75,837• H1 2018 Total Training Hours: 35,320
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Canadian geographic focus: Canadian focus allows potential for expansion of existing service lines or adding services lines within our current infrastructure
Improving our operating leverage: Building on our existing infrastructure and adding operationally focused personnel while maintaining G&A support levels
Dec-155.5
Dec-164.4
Dec-176.5
Aug-188.4
0123456789
Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18
Field and Shared Service / SG&A Employee
Field & Shared Service / G&A Year Avg Field & Shared Service / G&A Linear (Field & Shared Service / G&A)
COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE – INNOVATION
Leveraging innovation for new opportunities: Scale allows targeted investment into internally developed
IP and new technologies
Patented MVPTM fracturing fluids; case studies indicate: • 30% increased production in the Montney• 20% increased production in the Cardium
Global technology reputation allows new markets for IP and technology • Initial licensing agreement signed in the US for MVP FracTM
• First application of CleanTRACKTM patented dust control product that is being used to control dust on lease roads, lease sites and all dirt roads
• 3rd party interest in customer facing applications platform
• International technical service agreements
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CAPITALIZATION – POSITIONED FOR OPPORTUNITIES
Operating cash-flow, investments in Keane and strong balance sheet allows for low cost of funding for various opportunities:
• Continued return to shareholders, active NCIB: repurchased approximately 10% of the outstanding Trican shares at a weighted average price of $3.46 per share (at September 27, 2018)
• Prudent leverage: low leverage levels allow investment in excess operating cash flow levels into our NCIB program; expect to invest ~$50MM between August 1 and November 7, 2018
• Fleet upgrades: can further strengthen our market leading fracturing fleet through selective upgrades
• Invest in supporting service lines: target increased market share in coil and other supporting service lines
• M&A Opportunities: low leverage levels allow cost effective funding options for acquisition opportunities
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-
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
Q1/
15
Q2/
15
Q3/
15
Q4/
15
Q1/
16
Q2/
16
Q3/
16
Q4/
16
Q1/
17
Q2/
17
Q3/
17
Q4/
17
Q1/
18
Q2/
18
Debt / Tangible Capital
APPENDICES
APPENDIX 1: EQUIPMENT AS OF AUGUST 8, 2018
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Service Line Total Equipment
Active,Manned
Active, Maintenance,
Unmanned
Idled ~ Market Share
Fracturing (HHP) 671,850 455,000 203,800 13,050 30%
Cementing (trucks) 67 30 13 24 40%
Coil Tubing (units) 28 6 9 13 n/a
Nitrogen (units) 80 26 16 38 n/a
Ability to reactivate idle equipment would increment both free cash flow and ROIC:• Our $70 million 2018 capital budget includes our estimated reactivation costs
APPENDIX 2: INVESTMENTS IN KEANE
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Year Ending March 2017
Keane Holding Company Proceeds
Trican Pro Rata Proceeds
Trican Pro Rata Proceeds (1.25 CAD/USD
Exchange Rate)FRAC USD $14.00 share price:
2018 (March 16, 2018 – March 15, 2019) USD$797 million USD$123 million CAD$153 million 2019 (March 16, 2019 – March 15, 2020) USD$797 million USD$76 million CAD$95 million 2020 (March 16, 2020 – March 15, 2021) USD$797 million USD$74 million CAD$92 million 2021 (March 16, 2021 – March 15, 2022) USD$797 million USD$74 million CAD$92 million
FRAC USD $18.00 share price:2018 (March 16, 2018 – March 15, 2019) USD$1.02 billion USD$185 million CAD$241 million 2019 (March 16, 2019 – March 15, 2020) USD$1.02 billion USD$121 million CAD$175 million 2020 (March 16, 2020 – March 15, 2021) USD$1.02 billion USD$95 million CAD$126 million 2021 (March 16, 2021 – March 15, 2022) USD$1.02 billion USD$95 million CAD$126 million
FRAC USD $20.00 share price:2018 (March 16, 2018 – March 15, 2019) USD$1.14 billion USD$216 million CAD$270 million 2019 (March 16, 2019 – March 15, 2020) USD$1.14 billion USD$152 million CAD$190 million 2020 (March 16, 2020 – March 15, 2021) USD$1.14 billion USD$105 million CAD$131 million 2021 (March 16, 2021 – March 15, 2022) USD$1.14 billion USD$105 million CAD$131 million
The above table valuations includes the two secondary offerings:• Liquidation event #1: Jan 20, 2017 Secondary offering w/ IPO = USD$28 million payable to Trican out of USD$284 million in proceeds to InvestorCo
• Liquidation event #2: Jan 17, 2018 Secondary offering = USD$27 million payable to Trican out of USD$280 million in proceeds to InvestorCo
Notes:1. Assumption for table = 100% of remaining FRAC shares liquidated in year shown and at price shown (could be single or multiple events).2. Remaining FRAC shares held by Keane Investor Holdings LLC ("InvestorCo”) = 56,919,000 FRAC shares.
INVESTOR PRESENTATIONOctober 2018