UN-ECE Work Session on Population and Housing Censuses

28-30 October 2009, Geneva

Meeting the needs of Census users in the UK’s private sector

Keith Dugmore

Demographic Decisions

Agenda

• The Census Suppliers

• Users – especially commercial companies

• Dialogue

• Three recommendations

The UK Census Suppliers

• 3 Census Offices• The range of products

• Small area tables (residents & also workers)• Small area boundaries + postcode directory• Commissioned tables• Samples of anonymised records

• Statistics Act 2007, & its Code of Practice• “Statistics that serve the public good”• Principle 1: “Meeting User Needs”

User communities

• Central government

• Local government

• Academic researchers

• Commercial companies

• ……..+ Citizens

1981 1991 2001

Occasional & New

Mainstream Analysts

Census Specialists

Census users – the growing pyramid

Numbers of users, and

their expertise

Why is the Census so important to commercial companies

• Decisions, decisions……• What areas are best for our new outlets?• Which branches should we close? • What should we offer in each outlet? • Where should we advertise?• Who are our best customers, and prospects?• Which areas & people should we survey?

• £00s millions investment to be targeted • Supported by strong analysis teams

1. Analysing local markets

A38

A4

A37

A4174

A4320

A3029

A403

M5

M4

19

M32

M4918

18A

17

341 Bedminster

404 Bristol Cribbs Causeway

509 Bristol Galleries

689 Bristol Imperial Park

577 Emersons Green

2. Profiling households and individuals - geodemographics

Chargecard Chargecard Chargecard FAU Survey FAU Survey FAU Survey GBMOSAIC Group Level Groups Groups Group Groups Group Group Penetration %

% Customers % Spend Index % Customers % Spend IndexL11 Country Dwellers 9.3 10.1 109 5.6 7.4 131 7.0L 1 High Income Families 25.5 30.3 119 19.8 24.3 123 11.0L10 Mortgaged Families 7.9 7.6 96 5.4 5.9 109 6.9L 2 Suburban Semis 15.9 15.7 99 14.4 15.1 104 10.7L12 Institutional Areas 0.2 0.2 93 0.2 0.2 98 0.3L 3 Blue Collar Owners 12.2 10.3 85 11.6 11.3 98 12.8L 7 Town Houses & Flats 9.0 8.1 90 10.1 9.3 92 9.5L 9 Independent Elders 5.3 4.5 84 5.4 4.9 90 7.2L 8 Stylish Singles 3.7 4.2 113 8.9 7.7 87 5.4L 4 Low Rise Council 5.0 3.9 79 7.1 5.6 79 13.5L 6 Victorian Low Status 4.3 3.6 84 7.9 5.8 74 9.3L 5 Council Flats 1.7 1.5 87 3.5 2.6 72 6.6

Value/ Counts 2,088,449 279,070,068£ 476,808 10,587,527£ Av. Spend 3 Month Period 134£ Trip 22£

3. Designing surveys

“The Census Sample of Anonymised Records is vital in helping us understand how many people to screen to find

the target population, and thus estimate the cost of the survey”

“If we didn’t have access to microdata, our surveys would be less efficient and cost more, and be of lower quality”

Corrine Moy, Director of Marketing Sciences, GfK NOP

Expressing users’ needs

• Commercial user groups– Market Research Society: Census & Geodemographics

Group– Resellers: Association of Census Distributors– End user companies: Demographics User Group

(DUG)

Expressing needs - mechanisms

• Census Advisory Groups

• Formal public consultations

• Specialist Working Groups

Plus:

• Web-based initiatives (good & bad)

• Progress for 2011? Summarised in the Table

Three recommendations - to benefit users (& suppliers)

1. Improve understanding of users’ needs– It’s good to have Consultation (rather than “Stakeholder

Management”!) – but aim for Dialogue

2. Seek a better Risk / Utility balance– recognise practical (as well as statistical) utility

3. Don’t give up in the last 100 metres– Only 3% of the 2001 Census budget spent on outputs– Marginal costs of dissemination are very, very small

Finally, O2 (Telefonica) speaking at this year’s DUG Conference

– An absolute focus on customers & customer experience

– A rallying cry: “Turning Customers into

Fans”

Keith DugmoreDemographic Decisions Ltd.

Tel: (0044) 020 7834 0966

Email: dugmore@demographic.co.uk

Web: www.demographic.co.uk