JOINT UN-ECE/EUROSTAT MEETING ON POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUSES

GENEVA, 7-9 JULY 2010

BEYOND 2011: BUILDING A UK POPULATION SYSTEM FOR THE FUTURE

IAN WHITE, Office for National Statistics,

UNITED KINGDOM

UK STATISTICAL OFFICES

GROS, Edinburgh

England and WalesOffice for National Statistics (ONS)

ScotlandGeneral Register Office forScotland (GROS)

Northern IrelandNorthern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)

Population statistics since 1801

John Rickman, first census taker in 1801

Population statistics since 1801

John Rickman, first census taker in 1801

Current data on the population

• Counts sex, age, marital status, etc

• Flows births, deaths, gross migration

• Structures households, families

• Characteristics ethnicity, economic activity, health, etc

• Geography NUTS 0, NUTS 1 ……… LAU 2 plus Output Areas

Components of population change, UKmid-1998 to mid-2008

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Natural change Net migration & other changes

Alternative approachesTraditional field enumerationSelf-completion questionnaire - UK, Ireland

Internet completion - Slovakia, Canada, UK

Interviewer questionnaire - Albania, Greece, Romania

Fully register-based Census - Austria, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden

Combined (any mix of field enumeration, surveys,

registers) – Italy, Estonia, Germany, Spain, Switzerland

Rolling Census - France

Long-form/short form - USA

Beyond 2011 Project

High level aims

• Feasibility of using integrated data sources

• Alternative data sources

Beyond 2011 Work programme

Workstream 1User Requirements and

User Engagement

Workstream 2Administrative Data

Sources

Workstream 3Household Survey

Strategy and Alternative Census Designs

Workstream 4Enablers and Barriers

(IM Capacity; Data Security; Legal Aspects; Public Acceptability; Harmonisation of Definitions

Workstream 5Integration

Workstream 6Project Management

(including cost/benefit models for options; Business case iterations)

Risks and issues

• Undermine response to the 2011 Census• No population register• Data quality• Maintenance• Public attitudes• Cross-government support• Funding

Advantages and disadvantages of alternative data sources

Census • Well established • Rich data• Flexible• Small populations• Accurate• Checkable• A known quantity

But• Snapshot in time• Infrequent• Expensive• Burdensome• Dependent on public response

Advantages and disadvantages of alternative data sources

Surveys

• Rich data• Reactive• Low cost• Frequent

But• Sample only• Estimates• Still some burden• Declining response rates

Advantages and disadvantages of alternative data sources

Administrative registers

• Minimal cost• Less burdensome• Continuous• High granularity

But• Non statistical• Variable coverage • Variable quality• Not all census topics covered • Inflexible• Non-comparable• No control• Legal issues

Data models and potential options

1 The Census provides a population spine

Data models and potential options

1 The Census provides a population spine

2 Administrative data is used for population estimates

Data models and potential options

1 The Census provides a population spine

2 Administrative data is used for population estimates

3 A survey or rolling census is used

Conclusions

• Early days

• Options to be reviewed and assessed

• No decision on traditional 2021 Census yet

• Strong requirement for a culture change

Culture change

Nous ne fournissons pas l'information, nous la rassemblons seulement !

Culture change

Nous ne fournissons pas l'information, nous la rassemblons seulement !

Thank you