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Page 1: Uncertainty in determining thermal performance of liquid-heating … · 2014. 6. 23. · UncertaintyinDeterminingThermalPerformance ofLiquid-HeatingFlat-PlateSolarCollectors ElmerStreed
Page 2: Uncertainty in determining thermal performance of liquid-heating … · 2014. 6. 23. · UncertaintyinDeterminingThermalPerformance ofLiquid-HeatingFlat-PlateSolarCollectors ElmerStreed
Page 3: Uncertainty in determining thermal performance of liquid-heating … · 2014. 6. 23. · UncertaintyinDeterminingThermalPerformance ofLiquid-HeatingFlat-PlateSolarCollectors ElmerStreed
Page 4: Uncertainty in determining thermal performance of liquid-heating … · 2014. 6. 23. · UncertaintyinDeterminingThermalPerformance ofLiquid-HeatingFlat-PlateSolarCollectors ElmerStreed
Page 5: Uncertainty in determining thermal performance of liquid-heating … · 2014. 6. 23. · UncertaintyinDeterminingThermalPerformance ofLiquid-HeatingFlat-PlateSolarCollectors ElmerStreed
Page 6: Uncertainty in determining thermal performance of liquid-heating … · 2014. 6. 23. · UncertaintyinDeterminingThermalPerformance ofLiquid-HeatingFlat-PlateSolarCollectors ElmerStreed
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National Bureau of Stamiards

Library, E-01 Admin. BJdg.

OCT 6 1981

lOO

NBS TECHNICAL NOTE 1140

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE/ National Bureau of Standards

Uncertainty in Determining Thermal

Performance of Liquid-Heating

Flat-Plate Solar Collectors

ic

.00

15753

10.1140

981

,2

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NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS

/

The National Bureau of Standards' was established by an act of Congress on March 3, 1901.

The Bureau's overall goal is to strengthen and advance the Nation's science and technology

and facilitate their effective application for public benefit. To this end, the Bureau conducts

research and provides: (1) a basis for the Nation's physical measurement system, (2) scientific

and technological services for industry and government, (3) a technical basis for equity in

trade, and (4) technical services to promote public safety. The Bureau's technical work is per-

formed by the National Measurement Laboratory, the National Engineering Laboratory, and

the Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology.

THE NATIONAL MEASUREMENT LABORATORY provides the national system of

physical and chemical and materials measurement; coordinates the system with measurement

systems of other nations and furnishes essential services leading to accurate and uniform

physical and chemical measurement throughout the Nation's scientific community, industry,

and commerce; conducts materials research leading to improved methods of measurement,

standards, and data on the properties of materials needed by industry, commerce, educational

institutions, and Government; provides advisory and research services to other Government

agencies; develops, produces, and distributes Standard Reference Materials; and provides

calibration services. The Laboratory consists of the following centers:

Absolute Physical Quantities' — Radiation Research — Thermodynamics and

Molecular Science — Analytical Chemistry — Materials Science.

THE NATIONAL ENGINEERING LABORATORY provides technology and technical ser-

vices to the public and private sectors to address national needs and to solve national

problems; conducts research in engineering and applied science in support of these efforts;

builds and maintains competence in the necessary disciplines required to carry out this

research and technical service; develops engineering data and measurement capabilities;

provides engineering measurement traceability services; develops test methods and proposes

engineering standards and code changes; develops and proposes new engineering practices;

and develops and improves mechanisms to transfer results of its research to the ultimate user.

The Laboratory consists of the following centers:

Applied Mathematics — Electronics and Electrical Engineering^ — Mechanical

Engineering and Process Technology^ — Building Technology — Fire Research —Consumer Product Technology — Field Methods.

THE INSTITUTE FOR COMPUTER SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY conducts

research and provides scientific and technical services toaid Federal agencies in the selection,

acquisition, application, and use of computer technology to improve effectiveness and

economy in Government operations in accordance with Public Law 89-306 (40 U.S.C. 759),

relevant Executive Orders, and other directives; carries out this mission by managing the

Federal Information Processing Standards Program, developing Federal ADP standards

guidelines, and managing Federal participation in ADP voluntary standardization activities;

provides scientific and technological advisory services and assistance to Federal agencies; and

provides the technical foundation for computer-related policies of the Federal Government.

The Institute consists of the following centers:

Programming Science and Technology — Computer Systems Engineering.

'Headquarters and Laboratories at Gaithersburg, MD, unless otherwise noted;

mailing address Washington, DC 20234.

•Some divisions within the center are located at Boulder, CO 80303.

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Uncertainty in Determining Thermal Performance

of Liquid-Heating Flat-Plate Solar Collectors

Elmer Streed

David Waksman

Center for Building Technology

National Engineering Laboratory

National Bureau of Standards

Washington, DC 20234

MATKUIAL BUBSAUor ffTANBABDB

UBBAXT

JUN 1 5 1981

0.0(00

,as-?^5no. //Vo

1921

Prepared for:

U.S. Department of Energy

Office of Solar Applications for Buildings

Office of the Assistant Secretary

Conservation and Solar Applications

Washington, D C 20585

.*^^' °'^o,

i

\

\..<ivi

"fSAyi o»

.^*^

f:cJi.Mj(LClA riot-

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary

NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS, Ernest Ambler, Director

Issued April 1981

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National Bureau of Standards Technical Note 1140Nat. Bur. Stand. (U.S.), Tech. Note 1140, 97 pages (April 1981)

CODEN: NBTNAE

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON: 1981

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402

Price $4.00

(Add 25 percent for other than U.S. mailing)

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UNCERTAINTY IN DETERMINING THERMAL PERFORMANCE OF LIQUID-HEATING FLAT-PLATE SOLAR COLLECTORS

By

E.R. Streed and D. Waksman

ABSTRACT

Thermal performance measurements of eight liquid-heating flat-plate solar collectors wereconducted with two to four collectors of each type at four outdoor test sites. Tests wereperformed in accordance with the procedure prescribed by ASHRAE Standard 93-77. Statisticalanalysis of data sets for each collector type within test sites and between test sites wasdone using ASTM recommended methods to evaluate test method measurement uncertainty.Illustrations of the influence of thermal performance data uncertainty are presented forcollector material degradation, collector rating and calculated system performance.

KEY WORDS: Collector rating; measurement; solar collector; standards; thermal

performance; uncertainty.

ili

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PREFACE

/

The Department of Energy (DoE) is conducting an Interim Solar Collector Testing Program to

stimulate the establishment of a permanent collector testing/certification program.Elements of the program are related to the verification of test procedures, evaluation andimprovement of test laboratory capabilities, and the measurement and distribution of

reliable performance data for solar collectors. This study of collector thermal performancedata uncertainty was conducted by the National Bureau of Standards (NBS) in support of thisDoE test program.

This report is Intended to be informative and instructive; it is not meant to be an

evaluation of products or facilities. In no case does such identification imply

recommendation or endorsement by the National Bureau of Standards, nor does it imply

that the products are necessarily the best available for the purpose.

The cooperation of the following people is greatly appreciated: Richard D. Whitaker andWilliam Dokos, DSET Laboratories, Inc. ; Ross McCluny, James Huggins and James Rowland,Florida Solar Energy Center; Roger Wedell and Ronald Dammann, Lockheed Palo Alto ResearchLaboratory; Ken Shih and Mark Rallas, Wyle Laboratories; and Aaron Dawson, VirginiaPolytechnic Institute and State University. The devoted effort of Dr. John Mandel in per-forming the statistical analysis, instrument calibration by John Jenkins, data collectionby Cathy Scarbrough and Patricia Christopher, and computerized calculations by William May,all at NBS, contributed significantly to the evaluation and presentation of the data.

iv

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

ABSTRACT iii

PREFACE iv

LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES vi

SI CONVERSION UNITS vii

1. INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Background 1

1.2 Current Studies 1

1.3 Report Purpose 2

2. THERMAL PERFORMANCE TEST METHOD 3

2.1 General 3

2.2 Efficiency 3

2.3 Incident Angle Modifier. 4

3. THERMAL PERFORMANCE DATA UNCERTAINTY 8

3.1 General 8

3.2 Measurement Uncertainties 8

3.3 Meteorological Uncertainty 9

4. BASELINE DATA 11

4.1 Collector Description 114.2 Test Sites 114.3 Measured Data 13

5. DATA ANALYSIS 17

5.1 General 17

5.2 Thermal Efficiency 175.3 Incident Angle Modifier 21

6. IMPACT OF DATA UNCERTAINTY 23

6.1 General 236.2 Collector Degradation 23

6.3 Collector Rating 236.4 System Performance 26

7. CONCLUSIONS ' 30

8. RECOMMENDATIONS 31

I

9. REFERENCES 32

APPENDIX A. Data Statistical Analysis 34A-1 General 34A-2 Residual Standard Deviation 34

APPENDIX B. Detailed Collector Description Data 38

APPENDIX C. Thermal Performance Data 41

APPENDIX D. Solar Heating and DHW System Description 90

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Page

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Environmental Test Conditions Allowed by ASHRAE Standard 93-77 10

Table 2. Test Collector Specimen Description 12

Table 3. Baseline Collector Intercept and Slope Data for All Collectors 14

Table 4. Incident Angle Modifier Baseline Data 16

Table 5. Standard Deviation and Coefficient of Variation of InterceptWithin and Between Test Sites 19

Table 6. Standard Deviation and Coefficient of Variation of SlopeWithin and Between Test Sites 20

Table 7. Incident Angle Modifier Standard Deviation Values Within andBetween Test Sites 22

Table 8. Thermal Performance Properties of Four Typical Flat PlateCollectors and Associated Data Uncertainties 25

Table 9. Measurement Uncertainty Influence on Rating 27

Table 10. Collector Measurement Uncertainty Influence on System Prediction 28

Table A-1. Data Point Residual Standard Deviations for All Measurements 36Table B-1. Collector Material Properties and Pertinent Dimensions 39Table B-2. Individual Collector Area Measurements by Test Site No. 1 40Table B-3. Collector Area Measurements for Each Test Site 40

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1. Typical solar collector thermal performance plot and data points 5

Figure 2. Typical solar collector incident angle modifier plot and data points. • . 7

Figure 3. Uncertainty associated with the ASHRAE 93-77 efficiency measurementsfor a single-glazed selective absorber type collector 9

Figure 4a. Comparison of data point spread for double covered selectiveabsorber type collector with uncertainty band 18

Figure 4b. Comparison of data point spread for double covered nonselectiveabsorber type collector with uncertainty band 18

Figure 5. Sensitivity of a single glazed selective absorber type collectorto changes in transmittance 24

Figure 6. The relationship between solar fraction and incident angle modifierslope for December and annual performance 29

Figure A-L Illustrations of the calculation and significance of standarddeviation 35

Figure A-2a Comparison of first and second order curve fits for FRP coverednonselective absorber type collector 37

Figure A-2b Comparison of first and second order curve fits for one cover,heat trap, nonselective absorber type collector 37

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SI CONVERSION UNITS

In view of the present accepted practice in this country for building technology, commonU.S. units of measurement have been used in the data appendix. In recognition of theposition of the United States as a signatory to the General Conference of Weights andMeasures, which gave official status to the metric SI system of units in 1960, assistanceis given to the reader interested in making use of the coherent system of SI units by givingconversion factors applicable to U.S. units used in this document.

Length1 in = 0.0254 meter (exactly)1 ft = 0.3048 meter (exactly)

Area1 in^ = 6.45 X lO"** meter^1 ft^ = 0.09290 meter2

Volume1 in = 1.639 X 10~^ meter^1 gal (U.S. liquid) = 3.785 x lO'^ meter^

Mass1 ounce-mass (avoirdupois) = 2.834 x 10~^ kilogram1 pound-mass (avoirdupois) = 0.4536 kilogram

Pressure or Stress (Force/Area)1 inch of mercury (60°F) = 3.377 x 10^ pascal1 pound-force/inch^ (psi) = 6.895 x 10^ pascal

Energy1 foot-pound-force (ft-lbf) = 1.356 joule1 Btu (International Table) = 1.055 x 10^ joule1 kilowatt-hour = 3.600 x 10^ joule = 3.412 x 10^ Btu

Power1 watt = 1 X 10 erg/second1 Btu/hr = 0.2929 watt

Temperatureto^ = 5/9 (top - 32)

Heat1 Btu-in/h'ft2.°F = 1.442 x 10"^ W/m-K (thermal conductivity)1 Btu/lbm-°F = 4.184 x 10^ J/kg-K (specific heat)1 langley = 4.184 x lO"" J/m2 = 1 cal/cm^ = 3.69 Btu/ft^

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1 . INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

The Department of Energy (DoE) and the Department of Housing and Urban Development(HUD) are committed to the demonstration of building solar heating and coolingapplications in the United States. One of the objectives of the demonstrationprogram involves the development of standardized procedures and methods for testingand evaluating solar collectors. As stated in the "National Program for SolarHeating and Cooling of Buildings" [1] , the National Bureau of Standards (NBS) is

working with industry and professional organizations to develop nationally recog-nized consensus test procedures.

The ASHRAE Standard 93-77 [2] has been adopted in the United States (U.S.) as a

consensus test method for determining the thermal performance of solar collectorsand is generally recognized as an adequate procedure. Initial development of thetest procedure [3] and experimental evaluation for selected flat-plate, evacuatedtubular and low concentrating collectors [4] have been reported by NBS. A roundrobin type study of the basic test procedure was conducted utilizing 21 testfacilities with two types of flat-plate collectors during 1976 and 1977. Analysisof these results [5] showed that correction for the influence of the environmentand test conditions to a set of reference conditions for incidence angle, diffusefraction, wind, irradiance and ambient temperature resulted in only a minor reduc-tion in data spread. It was concluded that systematic type measurement problemsresulting from instrument calibration, sensor installation and procedural varia-tions are probably more significant contributors to the data uncertainty.

1.2 Current Studies

In order to stimulate the establishment of an industry operated collector testing andcertification program, DoE organized an Interim Collector Testing Program in 1978.

The program had three major objectives as follows:

1. Provide state-of-the-art thermal performance data for designer,manufacturer and consumer use on a large number of collectors

2. Provide a technical base for the establishment of a collectorcertification and rating program

3. Evaluate and modify (if necessary) collector performance testmethods

The thermal performance measurements portion of the program has been completed andthe data are being compiled for publication. Only a limited number of tests wereconducted for comparability purposes.

The primary factors that need to be determined are a measure of the repeatabilityand reproducibility of ASHRAE Standard 93-77. Repeatability is related to the

variability in replicate results obtained on the same product within a single test

facility. Reproducibility is related to the variability in results obtained onthe same product between test sites.

As part of the overall DoE Solar Energy Program, a project was initiated in 1978 byNBS [6] to investigate accelerated and "real time" test methods for predictingcollector durability and reliability. Representative commercially available flat-plate solar collectors and their materials are being exposed outdoors in fourdifferent U.S. climatic regions and with two types of solar simulators. As partof the characterization of the collectors, initial thermal performance measurementswere made on multiple samples of each collector at each test site prior to

commencing the exposure tests. These baseline data consisting of measurementsmade on eight collector types at each of four sites, with two to four collectorreplicates at each site, provide an appropriate data set which is used in thisstudy to evaluate collector thermal performance measurement capabilities.

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IIThe NBS test programwas primarily designed for durability/reliability considerations,and does not include some features desirable for identifying individual factorscontributing to the measurement uncertainty, such as product variability, specificenvironmental conditions, and test apparatus. Additional investigations to evaluateand improve the ASHRAE test method are currently being conducted under the directionof an ASHRAE 93R (Revision) Committee.

1.3 Report Purpose

It is the intent of this study to show the following: (1) overall uncertaintyin collector thermal performance data as reported by commercial test facilitieson commercially available solar collectors (individual error sources will not beidentified except for some cursory observations of possible causes) , and

(2) illustrations of how the uncertainty in individual collector test results affectsthe rating and selection of collectors for system design and for determining degrada-tion with exposure or operating time.

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THERMAL PERFORMANCE TEST METHOD

2.1 General

The thermal performance tests used to obtain the instantaneous efficiency werespecified to be performed in general accordance with ASHRAE Standard 93-77. Thisconsensus test method for both air and liquid heat transfer fluids includes guide-lines for the test apparatus configuration, instrumentation accuracy, and precisiontolerances. The measurements needed to determine the instantaneous efficiency are

temperature, fluid mass flow, solar irradiance, and collector area, as expressed bythe following equation:

n = m c (t - t .)/!> (1)p f,o f,i t g

where n = collector efficiency2

m = fluid mass flow rate (kg/s-m )

c = fluid specific heat (J/kg-°C)P

tj. . = transfer fluid inlet temperature (°C)

t- = transfer fluid exit temperature (°C)t , o „

A = collector gross area (m )g 2

I = solar irradiance (W/m )

.

These measurements must be performed precisely with calibrated instruments capable of

achieving the prescribed accuracy and also must be performed within a limited rangeof weather ana test conditions. During testing, the solar irradiance, inlettemperature, and fluid flow rate must be maintained within close tolerances for timeperiods in excess of the collector time constant to insure that a quasi-steady statethermodynamic condition prevails in the collector with respect to the gain and lossof energy. Climatic factors such as ambient temperature and wind have relativelywide allowable ranges and they must be measured and reported as well as the solardiffuse fraction and relative humidity. Other test parameters which may Influencethe thermal performance but are not specifically restricted are tilt angle, skytemperature and solar spectral distribution.

The test procedure specifies that at least four inlet temperatures shall be used to

obtain near normal incidence efficiency values over a range of operating conditions.At least four data points shall be taken at each inlet temperature. When measurementsare made outdoors on a non-tracking mount, two data points should be taken beforesolar noon and two after solar noon to cancel out heat capacity effects. Measurementsmade using a solar simulator or an altazimuth mount are conducted with the sunnormal to the collector during the test period. Each data point is obtained byintegrating the measured parameters over a five-minute period (longer for collectorswith time constants in excess of five minutes) and calculating the efficiency as

indicated in equation 1.

2.

2

Efficiency

ASHRAE Standard 93-77 is based upon the Hottel-Whlllier-Bliss analytical model whichassumes that the efficiency of a flat-plate solar collector operating under steady-state conditions and normal incidence can be described by:

n = F^(Ta)^-F^Uj(t^^^- t^)/lj (2)

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where F = collector heat removal factorR(xa) = effective transmittance-absorptance product

s2 o

U = heat transfer loss coefficient [W/ (m -"C)]

The concept of the collector heat removal factor, Fr, was introduced in the testing

of thermal collectors to preclude the necessity for determining the mean temperature

of the absorber plate. The parameter Fj^ is defined as:

actual useful energy collected by a flat-plate collector

R ~ useful energy collected if the entire flat-plate collector

surface were at the inlet fluid temperature

The quantity Fj^ may be expressed in exponential form as follows:

ll - e -<W'^ %) I (3)R U^A

L a

2where A = collector aperture area (m )

.

a

The collector efficiency factor F' is made up of a series of heat path resistances

dependent upon the absorber physical construction (materials and configuration) and

the heat transfer coefficient from absorber surface-to-heat transfer fluid. Thus,

the effects of collector physical design, mass flow rate, and fluid thermophysicalproperties are manifested in the collector's measured efficiency, assuming that theexternal boundary conditions of total incident radiation flux (I^-), ambienttemperature (t ), sky temperature, wind velocity, etc., are relatively constant.

3.

A plot of the collector efficiency versus the AT/I^ parameter for the range of

inlet temperatures can result in a linear relationship. The intercept on the "y"

axis is equal to Aa/Ag FR(Ta)g* and the slope is equal to Aa/Ag Fj^Uj^*. Becauseof non-linearity in the loss coefficient with temperature, Ul is not always con-

stant, and the test method provides for presenting the data by either a first-orderor a second-order polynomial fit to the data points.

A typical plot of the efficiency curves for a collector with a double cover and a

flat black absorber and for one with a single cover and a selective absorber are

shown in Figure 1. Examples of variation in wind and diffuse fraction are shownfor individual data points obtained on different measurement days. The influenceof environmental conditions on individual data points is smoothed out by fitting a

curve to all 16 of the measured data points.

2.3 Incident Angle Modifier

ASHRAE Standard 93-77 also provides for measurements of the influence of solarincidence angle on the collector efficiency. The incident angle modifier, Kc(-,is

used in this method as a coefficient of the transmittance-absorptance product,(Ta)g = K^j (xa) , to describe non-tracking collector performance when irradiatedoff-normal. The coefficient is used in calculating collector all-day performance.The value of K^x fo^ many flat-plate collectors can be plotted as a function of

*The reported values are based upon calculations using collector gross area. Each term

should be multiplied by the ratio of the gross area-to-aperture area (Ag/A^) to conform

to the definition of the heat removal factor expressed in equation 3, which is based uponaperture area.

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oo

CO

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CD4J

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acd

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(U

uc

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(1/cos 9)-l as shown in Figure 2 and typically yields a straight line. The valuesof Kax are determined by performing separate efficiency tests with the inlettemperature controlled to within +1°C (+2°F) of the ambient temperature and at

incident angles of 0, 30, 45 and 60°. This linear relationship shown in Figure 2

may not hold for collectors with special (non-flat) geometry, reflectors, etc.

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THERMAL PERFORMANCE DATA UNCERTAINTY

3.1 General

The evaluation of a test method involves an analysis of the total measurementprocess including:

o measurement personnel expertiseo test facility qualityo local environmental factorso test specimen characteristics

.

The identification of individual sources of uncertainties would require the use of

well characterized reference samples for measurement under identical environmentalconditions or the exchange of the same specimen for measurements by each testfacility. The conduct of this durability program did not permit sample control to

this extent. The evaluation was conducted in a manner similar to the proceduresemployed by industry in a certification program. Collectors are typically randomlyselected from production lots, sent to a qualified laboratory and tested under theprevailing environmental conditions within the prescribed test limitations.Therefore, typical variations in collector production, pre-test collector handling,test apparatus calibration, test procedure, and data reduction are aggregated in the

data.

Some factors which contribute to the uncertainty can be determined from analysisof the information obtained as part of the test procedure. For example, thecollector gross area must be measured for use in calculating the efficiency as

expressed by equation 1. Analysis of the reported area data for Test Site No. 1

indicates a coefficient of variation cvj- of 0.33 percent for "within" a test site.

Similar analysis for the four test sites indicates a coefficient of variation cvrof 0.94 percent for "between" test sites. Assuming that the "within" value reflectsthe average variation in manufacturing tolerances for these collectors and that thelarger "between" value is more indicative of measurement uncertainties, then thearea determination becomes a significant part of the coefficient of variation forintercepts calculated in Section 5.2.

The area, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation data are tabulated inTables B-2 and B-3 of Appendix B.

3.2 Measurement Uncertainties

The influence of individual and cumulative instrumentation calibration and opera-tional errors has been calculated [7] using propagated measurement uncertaintyfunctions. Uncertainty functions were determined for the allowable accuraciesspecified in the test procedure (assuming 2- a instrumentation errors) forindividual measurements of solar irradiance, fluid flow rate, temperature and workingfluid thermophysical properties plus a 1 percent uncertainty associated with thedata acquisition. The magnitude of the calculated measurement uncertainty asso-ciated with parameters comprising the x and y axes is illustrated in Figure 3 bythe rectangles superimposed on the solid lines. Uncertainties of about +4percentage points are indicated for typical flat-plate collectors. The largestassumed individual contributing parameter is the uncertainty of +3 percent relatedto the measurement of solar irradiance.

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Page 26: Uncertainty in determining thermal performance of liquid-heating … · 2014. 6. 23. · UncertaintyinDeterminingThermalPerformance ofLiquid-HeatingFlat-PlateSolarCollectors ElmerStreed

3. 3 Meteorological Uncertainty

Additional variability in efficiency will result from the meteorological variationsallowed in the test method. The range of allowable test conditions for solarirradiance, incidence angle, ambient temperature and wind speed specified in the testmethod are shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Environmental Test Conditions Allowed by ASHRAE Standard 93-77

Environmental Parameter

Ambient air temperature range < 30''C

Wind speed across collector should be <_ 4.5 m/sTotal solar irradiance within collector plane > 630 W/m2

Beam solar irradiance incident angle < 30°

Reflected solar irradiation < 0.20

The difference in calculated thermal performance for a single glass cover,selective absorber type collector exposed to these extreme conditions is representedby the solid curves shown in Figure 3. Calculations were made using an analyticalmodel [5] based upon traditional heat transfer relationships for flat-platecollectors. It should be noted that the simultaneous occurrence of these extreme"high" or "low" meteorological conditions is extremely unlikely.

Experimental verification of the calculated meteorological extremes was performedin a solar simulator to the extent that the conditions could be achieved. The solidblack squares represent data points taken using the extreme exposure conditionslisted under "simulator tests" in Figure 3. The experimental data points arebracketed around the solid curve labeled "average outdoor" which represents the meanvalue reported for round-robin type tests [5] on a similar collector. The experi-mental data were obtained with a xenon type solar simulator [8].

10

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4. BASELINE DATA

4.1 Collector Description

Liquid-heating flat-plate type collectors were selected for use in the test program.The designs chosen were representative of commonly used materials and types ofconstruction. All collectors from each manufacturer were from the same productionlot. The cover and absorber materials, their pertinent optical properties and

average areas (gross and aperture) are shown for the respective collectors in

Table 2. The absorber material optical property data are based upon measurementsof at least ten samples taken from the actual absorber of each collector type. Thesolar transmittance of the glass materials was obtained using the full cover and a

pyranometer (ASTM Standard E424 Method B [9]). The solar transmittance of non-glasscover materials and the solar absorptance values were obtained from spectral measure-ments with an integrating sphere (ASTM Standard E424 Method A [9]). Emittance wasmeasured using a portable-type instrument employing a thermopile and infraredreflectance technique, in accordance with ASTM Standard E408, Method A [10].

Detailed descriptions of each collector's construction dimensions and pertinent

material properties useful for thermal analytical modeling are listed in Table B-1,Appendix B.

4.2 Test Sites

One of the major objectives of the durability program is to determine the influenceof environmental exposure conditions on collector degradation. The same type of

information is required for evaluation of thermal performance testing.

Four exposure test sites were selected which represent both the median and extremeUnited States climatological conditions. These test sites can be briefly describedas follows

:

Climatological Extremes

Site 1. hot, dryhigh solar radiation(high UV radiation would accompany these conditions)

The hot, dry condition can be found in south-western states(i.e. Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico). DSET Laboratories, Inc.,

located in Phoenix, Arizona was selected as this test site.

Site 2. hot, humidhigh solar radiation(low to moderate UV radiation would accompany these conditions)

The hot, humid condition can be found either in Florida or along the

Gulf Coast in the states of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana or Texas.

The Florida Solar Energy Center, located in Cape Canaveral, Florida was

selected as this test site.

Median Climatological Conditions

Site 3. moderate temperaturedryhigh solar radiationmoderate UV radiation

The moderate, dry condition can be found primarily in California. TheLockheed Research Laboratory, located in Palo Alto, California, wasselected as this test site.

11

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Page 29: Uncertainty in determining thermal performance of liquid-heating … · 2014. 6. 23. · UncertaintyinDeterminingThermalPerformance ofLiquid-HeatingFlat-PlateSolarCollectors ElmerStreed

I

Site 4. moderate temperaturehumidmoderate solar radiationmoderate to low UV radiation

The moderate, humid condition can be found in the Pacific Northwest,Mid-Atlantic and Mid-South regions of the United States. The NBS testfacility, located in Gaithersburg, Maryland will serve as this test site.

Each of the commercial sites was determined by an industry inspection team to becapable of conducting tests in accordance with ASHRAE Standard 93-77 [11]. Inaddition, on-site checks of the instrumentation used by these laboratories weremade by the Solar Energy Research and Education Foundation (SEREF) with theirLaboratory Intercorrelation Test Equipment (LITE) apparatus as part of the DoECollector Testing Program. In general, they were found to meet the requiredASHRAE measurement specifications. Since the main concern of this study was in

establishing the precision of the test method, detailed study of the type andaccuracy of the individual sensors and apparatus used at each test facility wasnot considered necessary.

4.3 Measured Data

Four test series, each having a sample of the eight collector types, were measuredat Sites 1 and 2, and two test series at Sites 3 and 4. The thermal performance ofall collectors in Series 1, 3 and 4 was measured prior to outdoor stagnationtesting. Collectors in Series 2 were exposed for three days to a minimum dailysolar radiation of 17,100 KJ/m^ (1500 Btu/ft^) prior to the initial thermal perfor-mance measurements. Series 2 is intended to determine the significance of thethree-day preconditioning exposure specified in ASHRAE Standard 93-77. The completeset of baseline data is tabulated in Appendix C. All the measured data required to

calculate and generate the efficiency curves are recorded for each data point. In

addition, the time, wind, diffuse fraction, collector orientation and tilt are listed.

Baseline data for all collectors measured are listed in Table 3 by intercept[optical efficiency, FR(Ta)g] and slope (heat loss coefficient, FrUl) . The curvefits and resultant values reported by the test sites were verified using the datapoints supplied by each test facility.

The baseline data for the incident angle modifier consists of measurements made onmost of the collectors at Sites 1, 2 and 3. Measurements were made on Collectors C

and G along each of two orthogonal axes, i.e. parallel and perpendicular to thefluid-flow axis of the collector, because of special cover configurations causingnon-symmetrical incident angle effects. The other collectors were not measured in

the parallel direction. The test procedure describes two methods for incident anglemodifier measurement. Test facilities No. 1 and No. 2 used a tracking mount andmaintained a constant incident angle for each data point. Test facility No. 3 heldthe collector at a fixed tilt and orientation, and measured the efficiency when the sunwas at the desired incident angle. The incident angle modifier can be expressed as:

K = 1 + B (-^ - 1) (4)ai o cos9

where B = slope of the curve connecting data points plotted for ¥^j versus

(-^ - 1) andcos

= the incident angle

.

13

Page 30: Uncertainty in determining thermal performance of liquid-heating … · 2014. 6. 23. · UncertaintyinDeterminingThermalPerformance ofLiquid-HeatingFlat-PlateSolarCollectors ElmerStreed

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14

Page 31: Uncertainty in determining thermal performance of liquid-heating … · 2014. 6. 23. · UncertaintyinDeterminingThermalPerformance ofLiquid-HeatingFlat-PlateSolarCollectors ElmerStreed

For the flat-plate collectors evaluated in this program, the incident angle modifier

was essentially a linear function when plotted versus ( ^ - 1) • The baseline' cosO

values of B for all measured collectors are shown in Table 4. Because of the

sparsity of suitable clear days, no incident angle measurements were made at testfacility No. 4.

I

15

Page 32: Uncertainty in determining thermal performance of liquid-heating … · 2014. 6. 23. · UncertaintyinDeterminingThermalPerformance ofLiquid-HeatingFlat-PlateSolarCollectors ElmerStreed

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DATA ANALYSIS

5.1 General

The data analysis was performed using the concepts and terminology recommended byASTM Standard Recommended Practice E177 [12], where appropriate. A brief descriptionof frequency, distribution, normal distribution, and the role of standard deviationis given in Appendix A.

The test sites supplied linear and polynomial equations representing first andsecond order curve fits to the data points. The linear equations were used for theanalysis used in this report to expedite the calculations and simplify the presenta-tion of heat loss coefficient data. Technical justification for the use of linearcoefficients is provided in Section A-2, Appendix A.

5.2 Thermal Efficiency

The intercept and slope values listed in Table 3 are subject to two sources ofvariability: the random variability between individual collectors of the same typemeasured at the same site and the additional variability resulting from differentsites. Each source is characterized by a standard deviation. The former is calledthe "within" (sites) standard deviation (sr)* The standard deviation encompassingboth "within" sites variability and variability among sites is referred to as

"between" sites standard deviation (sr). Detailed descriptions of the statisticalanalysis methods are given in References 13, 14, and 15.

It is also possible to calculate the uncertainty, determined as a standard deviation,of the grand average thermal performance for each type of collector. Such a standarddeviation, pertaining to an average, is generally called a standard error. Tables 5

and 6 list the mean, standard error and the standard deviation "within" and "between"sites for intercepts and slopes, respectively. The standard deviations are listedboth in their original form and as relative percentage values of the overall mean.

There appears to be no relation between the standard deviations for any particulartype of collector and the corresponding mean values. The variability exhibited bythe standard deviations in a particular column of Table 5 and 6 is within the

expected sampling errors of standard deviations based on the number of samplesinvolved

.

As might be expected, the "between" standard deviations that include site-to-sitevariability are somewhat larger than those measured for within-site variability. Forintercepts, the coefficient of variation (standard deviation expressed as relativepercent of the mean value) is about 2.1 percent for "within", cvj-,and 2.4 percent for

"between", cvj^. The corresponding values for the slope are approximately 5.9 percentand 8.4 percent.

Graphical depiction of the spread of individual data points from each test site anda comparison with the +4 percent to +5 percent random error band associated by Jenkinsand Hill [7] with the instrumentation and represented by the dashed lines is shownin Figures 4a and 4b for Collectors D and B, respectively. It should be noted thatno data were rejected on the basis of being an "outlier." The data points includevariations in factors such as the measurement and calculation of collector area,flow rate, tilt angle, and orientation (tracking or fixed)

.

17

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I.U

COLLECTOR D

RESIDUAL STD. DEV. = 0.0202

0.8 -

1oIkUJ

0.6

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'^'^^'^^'^^^..^^^

0.2

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i

.01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08

tf,i-ta °Cm2

I " W

Figure 4a. Comparison of data point spread for double covered selectiveabsorber type collector with uncertainty band

1.0

0.8

^ 0.6

UJu£ 0.4

0.2

COLLECTOR B

RESIDUAL STD. DEV. = 0.0184

'^\^^^^

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.01 .02 .03 .04

tf,i-ta

.05 .06

'Cm2

.07 .08

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Figure 4b. Comparison of data point spread for double covered nonselectiveabsorber type collector with uncertainty band

18

Page 35: Uncertainty in determining thermal performance of liquid-heating … · 2014. 6. 23. · UncertaintyinDeterminingThermalPerformance ofLiquid-HeatingFlat-PlateSolarCollectors ElmerStreed

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Page 36: Uncertainty in determining thermal performance of liquid-heating … · 2014. 6. 23. · UncertaintyinDeterminingThermalPerformance ofLiquid-HeatingFlat-PlateSolarCollectors ElmerStreed

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20

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5.3 Incident Angle Modifier (lAM)

Although the total sample size for incident angle modifier (lAM) measurements is

only one-half that for thermal efficiency, these data are important because of thelack of comparative lAM data and the interest in values for calculating all-dayperformance. Analysis of the data listed in Table 4 was performed for two individualtest sites and combined for three test sites as shown in Table 7. The mean valuesfor Collectors A and G exhibited relatively large differences for "within" data.The corrugated outer cover on Collector G probably influences the angular trans-mittance, and this combined with the difference in diffuse solar fraction between

test sites (about 10 percent at Site 1 and about 25 percent at Site 2) could con-tribute to the large differences found for this collector. There is no apparentreason for the large difference for Collector A. The "within" test site standarddeviations do not exhibit a consistent trend with collector type.

Analysis of the lAM data to obtain "between" site standard deviation shows a largevariation with collector type but the average coefficient of variation (expressedin percent) of 34 percent remains about the same with or without the extreme highor low values shown for collectors A, C, E, and F. Variations in lAM of thismagnitude cannot be attriouted to product variability for the flat-plate collectorsused in this program.

21

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22

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6. IMPACT OF DATA UNCERTAINTY

6.1 General

The uncertainty associated with commercial collector performance data is seldompublished by the manufacturer and is not required to be reported by the test method.Three applications for typical thermal performance data have been selected forillustration of the impact of the data uncertainty discussed above, as follows:

o Evaluation of collector degradationo Collector ratingo System performance prediction,

6.2 Collector Degradation

One method of quantitatively evaluating changes in the material properties or thermalcharacteristics of a collector is to perform thermal efficiency tests before andafter non-operational exposure testing. Depending upon the data uncertainty, thermalperformance measurements could reveal incremental changes in the cover solar trans-mittance, plate solar absorptance or emittance, and changes in insulation thermalconductivity. Analytical studies of probable error resulting from instrumentationonly [16] indicated that an uncertainty band of about 4 percent in the thermal perfor-mance could be obtained. This uncertainty in knowing the actual thermal performancecorresponds to changes in the solar transmittance, absorptance or emittance of about0.10 and a change in back insulation thermal conductivity of about 50 percent for thecollectors studied in this program. Consequently, changes in material properties of

this magnitude would be required to clearly discern material property changes fromthe measurement uncertainty band for many flat-plate collectors.

The influence of changes in the solar transmittance (t) of the cover material for

Collector A is illustrated in Figure 5. The dark curves represent the calculatedfirst order efficiency curve for x values of 0.90 and 0.82. The light curves repre-sent the instrumentation uncertainty associated with this collector and indicatesthat a change of 0.08 in x would be required to positively conclude that a materialproperty change had occurred. An uncertainty of 0.025 at a nominal intercept valueof 0.60 represents a 4 percent change in relative efficiency which is approximatelyequal to the 2a "within" site coefficient of variation (4.1 percent) determined for

intercept measurements reported in this study. Therefore, thermal performancemeasurements may not be sensitive to material degradation changes incurred duringshort-term (30-day) durability tests.

6.

3

Collector Rating

Rating a solar collector on the basis of thermal performance is useful for severalpurposes. Among the primary ones of interest to the consumer are:

o To rank collectors on the basis of all-day outputo To determine the relative difference (%) in energy output for a

specific application.

One proposed rating method [17] for ranking collectors uses the ASHRAE Standard 93-77

curve (efficiency and incident angle modifier) to calculate the collector dailythermal output for days with specified inlet temperature, solar radiation andambient temperature.

The influence of data uncertainty on all-day collector energy output was calculatedfor four flat-plate collectors with the properties and data uncertainties shown in

Table 8. Calculations were made with a clear day solar radiation profile occurringat 40°N latitude, 0°C ambient temperature and a 60°C (140 F) collector inlettemperature. The data uncertainties used for the intercept, slope and incidentangle modifier slope were determined from the baseline data analysis. Computations

23

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25

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were made for the nominal intercept and slope value, and the combination of uncer-tainties that would yield the lowest energy output, the greatest energy output, anda mixture of high and low uncertainties to give an intermediate energy output as

shown in Table 9. Rankings based upon the outputs for each calculation series areshown not to change for the collectors evaluated. However, when comparing the energyoutput of a collector with a high combination of uncertainties to the energy output

of another collector with a low combination of uncertainties, a different ranking can

be obtained.

6.4 System Performance

The prediction of a solar energy system's seasonal or annual performance with respectto meeting the heating or domestic hot water load can be calculated using systemsimulation programs. The f-chart method [18] is based upon a correlation techniquederived from detailed modeling of a typical solar heating and hot water system in

a number of U.S. cities with different combinations of component characteristics,sizes and loads. The collector performance, characterized by the first-orderefficiency curve and the lAM slope, is used in conjunction with average local weatherconditions and the site dependent load to determine the contribution to the load(fraction of the load) made by solar energy. F-chart calculations were made for a

152 m2 residence occupied by a family of four and located in Madison, Wisconsin and in

Washington, D.C. (see Appendix D for system description). The nominal collector areawith a double cover selective absorber and a single cover flat black absorber, to

provide 0.50 and 0.75 of the annual heating requirements for each location, werecalculated as shown in Table 10. The solar fractions for the same areas were alsocalculated using the high and low values of collector uncertainty obtained from thebaseline analysis shown in Table 7. Differences of about +0.03 in solar fractionare attributed to the efficiency uncertainty for Collector 4 and about +0.045 forCollector 1. The 0.50 system fraction is somewhat more sensitive to the uncertaintyvalues than the 0.75 system fraction for Collector 1.

The influence of a +20 percent uncertainty in the lAM for either flat-plate collector is

shovm in Table 10 to have less than a +0.01 effect on the annual system solar fraction.A sensitivity study of the relationship between the value of Bq and the normalizedsolar fraction for the solar heating and domestic hot water system example is shownfor Collectors 1 and 4 in Figure 6. The solid curves are for the month of Decemberand the dashed curves are for the annual performance in Madison, Wisconsin. Changesin the incident angle modifier slope of +0.05 or about +28 percent for a nominalvalue of Bo = 0.175 would result in a relative percentage change in annual solarfraction of about +3.0 percent for Collector 4 and +2.5 percent for Collector 1.

26

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Page 44: Uncertainty in determining thermal performance of liquid-heating … · 2014. 6. 23. · UncertaintyinDeterminingThermalPerformance ofLiquid-HeatingFlat-PlateSolarCollectors ElmerStreed

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28

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29

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CONCLUSIONS ^

Statistical analysis of the thermal performance data sets obtained on eight liquid-heating, flat-plate solar collectors at four test sites broadly dispersed in theUnited States have confirmed that the total experimental uncertainty is about thesame as the probable estimate of random error predicted for the use of ASHRAEStandard 93-77. Measurement error is believed to be the major contributor to the"within" test site variability (repeatability), and environmental effects a signifi-cant factor influencing the slope (loss coefficient) data obtained "between"test sites (reproducibility) . No evidence of product variability was discerned for

the various collector types.

On the basis of first-order curve fits of the data points, an average "within" test

site coefficient of variation, %cvr, of 2.1 percent and "between" test site

coefficient of variation, ^Cvr, of 2.4 percent was calculated for the intercept

[Fr (Ta)e].

Similar data for the overall heat loss coefficient, FrU^, indicated "within" (^cvj.)

coefficient of variation value of 5.93 percent and "between" (Z^^^ of 8.37 percent.

The coefficient of variation (^cvr) for incident angle modifier data of 34 percent

was shown based upon measurements at three test sites. Application of these uncer-

tainty values to three application areas where thermal performance data have

significant impact were shown as follows:

o Material degradation equivalent to about a 0.10 change in cover

transmittance or absorber solar absorptance and emittance

o Variations in collector all-day thermal output of from +17 to

+68 percent for specific winter operating conditions resulting

in significant ranking changeso Variations in residential annual heating and domestic hot water

solar fraction of +6 to 7 percent.

I

30

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RECOMMENDATIONS

The establishment of data uncertainty and measurement precision for commercialproducts requires careful evaluation of test procedures and continued vigilance of

experimental facilities. It is recommended that a systematic evaluation of the testprocedure be conducted within at least three test sites with replicate measurements(using the same "standard" collector types at each site) . Collectors with stable butdifferent material configuration designs should be selected. Some of the factors thatshould be considered are:

o Absorbers with serpentine flow, headers with parallel passage andfully wetted

o Curved covers vs. flato Selective vs. non-selective coatingso Relative high loss vs. low loss design (edge and back).

These measurements should be conducted with test apparatus that has been calibratedto the same field reference using a reference heat source or equivalent procedure.Measurements should be conducted under a range of local conditions as permitted bythe test procedure (ambient temperature, wind, irradiance, diffuse fraction).

Initial testing should be conducted on all collectors at one site using the sameinstrumentation. Series testing of groups of about four collectors utilizingone collector as a reference in all tests would minimize instrumentation uncertaintiesassociated with the flow and solar irradiance measurements. The collectors would bemeasured once per month at each site over a six-month period (to include summer andwinter) with the largest meteorological variations. At the conclusion of the program,the collectors could be returned to the site of the initial testing to corroboratethe results if the uncertainties were larger than suspected from statistical principlesof the sampling number.

31

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9 . REFERENCES

1. "National Program for Solar Heating and Cooling of Buildings," Report No.

ERDA 76-6, Department of Energy, Washington, DC, November 1976,

2. "Methods of Testing to Determine the Thermal Performance of Solar Collectors,"ASHRAE Standard 93-77, ASHRAE, 345 East 47th Street, New York, NY 10017,Corrected Printing 1978.

3. Hill, J.E., Streed, E.R., Kelly, G.E., Geist, J.C. and Kusuda, T. , "Developmentof Proposed Standards for Testing Solar Collectors and Thermal Storage Devices,"NBS Technical Note 899, National Bureau of Standards, Washington, DC 20234,February 1976.

4. Hill, J.E., Jenkins, J. P., and Jones, D.E., "Experimental Verification of a

Standard Test Procedure for Solar Collectors," NBS BSS 117, NBS, Washington, DC20234, January 1979.

5. Streed, E.R., Thomas, W.C, Dawson, A.G. , Wood, B.D., and Hill, J.E., "Resultsand Analysis of a Round-Robin Test Program for Liquid-Heating Flat-Plate SolarCollectors," NBS Technical Note 975, NBS, Washington, DC 20234, August 1978.

6. Waksman, D., Streed, E.R., and Seiler, J., "Solar Collector Durability/ReliabilityTest Program Plan," NBS Technical Note 1136, NBS, Washington, DC 20234, January

1981.

7. Jenkins, J. P., and Hill, J.E. , "A Comparison of Test Results for Flat-PlateWater-Heating Solar Collectors Using the BSE and ASHRAE Procedures," Presentedat Winter Annual Meeting, American Society of Mechanical Engineers, New York, NY,

December 1979 (Paper No. 79-WA/501-4)

.

8. Lunde, A.R., "Solar Collector Reliability Test Program-Baseline Thermal Perfor-mance Tests," Report No. TR2-5615-8000-004, The Boeing Company, Seattle, WA,

February 1, 1980.

9. ASTM Standard E424-71, "Standard Methods of Test for Solar Energy Transmittanceand Reflectance (Terrestrial) of Street Materials," ASTM, 1916 Race Street,Philadelphia, PA 19103.

10. ASTM Standard E408-71, "Total Normal Emittance of Surfaces Using Inspection MeterTechniques," ASTM 1916 Race Street, Philadelphia, PA 19103.

11. Niessing, W.J., "Laboratories Technically Qualified to Test Solar Collectors inAccordance with ASHRAE Standard 93-77: A Summary Report," NBSIR 78-1535, NBS,Washington, DC 20234, November 1978.

12. Duncan, A.J., "Views of the E-11 Task Group on Statements of the Precision andAccuracy of a Test Method," ASTM Standardization News , December 1978, ASTM, 1916Race Street, Philadelphia, PA 19103.

13. Mandel, J., "Repeatability and Reproducibility," Materials Research and Standards ,

Vol. II, No. 8, ASTM, 1916 Race Street, Philadelphia, PA 19103, pp. 8-16.

14. Mandel, J., "The Analysis of Interlaboratory Test Data," ASTM StandardizationNews , ASTM, 1916 Race Street, Philadelphia, PA 19103, March 1977.

15. Mandel, J., and Paule, R. C. , "Interlaboratory Evaluation of a Material withUnequal Numbers of Replicates," Analytical Chemistry , Vol. 42, p. 1194,September 1970.

32

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16. Thomas, W. C. , "Analysis of Solar Collector Reliability and Durability TestData," VPI&SU Progress Report, NBS, Washington, DC 20234, February 1980.

17. "Thermal Performance Rating Method for Solar Collectors," Document RMD-5,SEREF Rating Method Committee, SEREF, Suite 800, 1001 Connecticut Avenue, NW,

Washington, DC 20036, November 14, 1978.

18. Beckman, W.A., Klein, S .A. , and Duf f ie, J. A., "Solar Heating Design by thef-Chart Method," John Wiley and Sons, New York, NY, 1977.

33

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APPENDIX A: DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

A-1 General

The rectangles shown in Figure A-la constitute a histogram in which the base (A,B) of

the rectangle ABCD represents a small interval of possible results of the measuringprocess. The area of the rectangle ABCD represents the relative frequency of valueslying in the interval AB. As larger and larger data samples become available, the

total range of values can be divided into smaller intervals. The histogram thengenerally approaches a smooth curve called a frequency distribution such as illus-trated in Figure A-lb.

A precise measuring process is represented by a narrow frequency distribution. Thesmaller the precision, the wider the frequency distribution will be (see FiguresA-lc and A-ld) . The width of a distribution is measured by its "standard deviation,"^- , which is a quantity expressed in the same units as the measured value. Thus, the

standard deviation is an inverse measure of the precision.

A type of frequency distribution that is of great theoretical and practical importanceis the "normal" (or "Gaussian") distribution. In a normal distribution, an intervalextending from a point located at one standard deviation below the mean to one locatedat one standard deviation above the mean, will correspond to a relative frequency(probability) of about 2/3 (68.27 percent). This is a +1 sigma interval. Theprobability corresponding to a +2 sigma interval is approximately 95 percent and that

corresponding to a +3 sigma interval is about 99.7 percent, as illustrated in

Figure A-lc. The probabilities are measured by the area bounded by the curve on topand by the lower and upper limits of the interval on both sides. These probabilitiespertain to the normal curve and one not necessarily correct for other types of distributions.

A measuring process generally contains more than one source of variation (imprecision)

.

Each source will have a frequency distribution with a definite sigma value. The jointeffect of the various sources of error is a frequency distribution resulting from thesuperposition of the various individual curves. The standard deviation correspondingto this overall curve is the square root of the sum of the squares of the individualstandard deviation. The square of the standard deviation is called the "variance."

The central value, or "mean," of a frequency distribution is not necessarily the "truevalue" of the quantity measured. The distance between the "true value" and the meanof the distribution is called the "bias" of the method. Often the true value is notknown and must be replaced by a "nominal" or "reference" value. A method with a largebias is said to be inaccurate or of low accuracy (see Figure A-le)

.

A- 2 Residual Standard Deviation

When a curve (or straight line) is fitted to a set of data points, the verticaldistance between the observed points and the fitted curve can also be measured interms of a standard deviation. The smaller this "standard deviation of fit" (alsocalled standard deviation of residuals or residual standard deviation) , the betterthe fit.

A comparison of the standard deviation of the residuals for the curve fits for eachdata point for Collectors C and E are shown in Figures A-2a and A-2b. Collector C

had the lowest residuals (least deviation from a linear fit) and Collector E had thegreatest deviation. Relatively little difference is indicated between thefirst- and second-order curve fits; consequently, first order curves were used to

represent the intercept and slope. Table A-1 lists the residual standard deviationfor curve fits to each collector data set.

34

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.03 .04 .05 .06

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37

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APPENDIX B: DETAILED COLLECTOR DESCRIPTION DATA

Table B-1 lists the important dimensions and material properties required for thermalanalytical modeling. Most information was obtained from the manufacturers

'

literature. When the literature was not available, dimensions were taken from onecollector. Handbook property values for thermal conductivity, refractive index andextinction coefficient were used when not specified by the manufacturer.

Table B-2 lists collector area measurements made for each collector at Test Site 1.

Calculations of the standard deviation and "within" test site coefficient of variationare shown.

Table B-3 lists collector area measurements reported by each facility. Calculation

of the standard deviation and "between" test site coefficient of variation is shown.

38

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39

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Table B-2. Individual Collector Area Measurements by Test Site No. 1

^^'^-^„„^^^ Series1 2 3 4 Mean

StdDev

Coeff. ofVar. (%)

Collector ^"''"~>--„^^^ (ft2) (ft2) (ft2) (ft2) (ft2) Sr

A 23.35 23.35 23.30 23.40 23.35 0.041 0.175

B 18.70 18.75 18.70 18.78 18.73 .039 .211

C 28.12 28.05 28.16 28.12 28.11 .046 .163

D 18.00 17.94 17.91 17.91 17.94 .042 .236

E 20.68 20.56 20.57 20.51 20.58 .072 .348

F 20.73 20.84 21.26 20.81 20.91 .238 1.14

G 27.80 27.88 27.88 27.81 27.84 .043 .156

H 31.50 31.61 31.50 31.60 31.55 ,061 .193

Average Coefficient of Variation, ZcVj. = .328%

(^cvj- = 0.212% without 1.14 outlier value)

Table B-3 • Collector Area Measurements for Each Test Site

^^^-^.TTest Site1 2 3 4 Mean

Std

DevCoeff. of

Var, (%)

Collector ^"""^^.^.^ (ft2) (ft2) (ft2) (ft2) (ft2) Sr

A 23.35 23.19 22.81 23.16. 23.13 0.228 0.99

B 18.73 18.72 18.37 18.71 18.64 0.175 0.94

C 28.11 27.88 27.56 27.87 27.86 0.226 0.81

D 17.94 17.88 17.53 17.88 17.81 0.187 1.05

E 20.58 20.35 20.17 20.32 20.36 0.169 0,83

F 20.91 20.71 20.38 20.70 20.68 0,219 1.06

G 27.84 27.64 27.25 27.60 27.58 0.245 0.89

H 31.55 31.51 30.94 31.51 31.38 0.292 0.93

Average Coefficient of Variation, %cvR 0.94%

40

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APPENDIX C: THERMAL PERFORMANCE DATA

The test data and measured efficiencies are tabulated in the ASHRAE Standard 93

prescribed foirmat for all efficiency tests. The data are identified by collector type,

series number, and laboratory number (test site) . In view of the present acceptedpractice in this country for building technology, common U.S. units of measurementhave been used for the data tables.

41

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89

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APPENDIX D: DESCRIPTION OF SOLAR SPACE HEATING AND DOMESTIC WATER HEATING SYSTEMSIMULATED USING F-CHART

Collector

o Area: Sized for each collector in each city to provide 50% and 75% of theseasonal space heating and hot water load

o Orientation: Tilted equal to the latitude, 0°, azimuth (south facing)

Collector Type Fr(toc)^(Btu/°F.ft2.h)

lAM

Bo

1 One glass coverBlack paint absorber

0.670 -1.080 -0.08

2 Two glass coverSelective absorber

0.642 -0.56 -0.175

Collector Loop Heat Exchanger

o None

Main Storage Tank

o Capacity: 15 Btu/°F-ft2 (1.85 gal/ft^)

Space Heating Load Heat Exchanger

° ^L C^in

UA= 2.0

Space Heating Load

o Building Effective UA: 12912 Btu/°F-day(8 Btu/degree dayft^ for a residence having a

floor area of 1614 ft^)

o Internal Heat Generation: None (Building Effective UA given above is assximed

to be a net value including the effect of internalheat generation)

Domestic Hot Water System

o Daily Draw: 70 gal/day

o Cold Water Temperature: 55 °F

o Hot Water Temperature: 140°F

90

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^BS-114A (REV. 2-8C)

U.S. DEPT. OF COMM.

BIBLIOGRAPHIC DATASHEET (See instructions)

1. PUBLICATION ORREPORT NO.

NBS TN 1140

2. Performing Organ. Report No. 3. Publication Date

April 1981

4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE

Uncertainty in Determining Thermal Performance of Liquid-HeatingFlat-Plate Solar Collectors

5. AUTHOR(S)

Elmer S treed, David Waksman

6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION (If joint or other than NBS. see instructions)

NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDSDEPARTMENT OF COMMERCEWASHINGTON, D.C. 20234

7. Contract/Grant No.

8. Type of Report & Period Covered

Final

9. SPONSORING ORGANIZATION NAME AND COMPLETE ADDRESS (Street. City. State. ZIP)

Department of EnergyOffice of Solar Applications for Buildings1000 Independence Avenue, SW

Washington, DC 20585

10. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

I I

Document describes a computer program; SF-185, FlPS Software Summary, is attached.

LI. ABSTRACT (A 200-word or less factual summary of most significant information. If document includes a si gnificantbibliography or literature survey, mention it here)

Thermal performance measurements of eight liquid-heating flat-plate solarcollectors were conducted with two to four collectors of each type at fouroutdoor test sites. Tests were performed in accordance with the procedureprescribed by ASHRAE Standard 93-77. Statistical analysis of data sets foreach collector type within test sites and between test sites was done usingASTM recommended methods to evaluate test method measurement uncertainty.Illustrations of the influence of thermal performance data uncertainty arepresented for collector material degradation, collector rating andcalculated system performance.

12. KEY WORDS (Six to twelve entries; alphabetical order; capitalize only proper names; and separate key words by semicolons)collector rating; measurement; solar collector; standards; thermal performance;uncertainty

13. AVAILABILITY

[j^ Unl imited

I I

For Official Distribution. Do Not Release to NTIS

[x] Order From Sup. of Doc, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC20402.

Q^ Order From National Technical Information Service (NTIS), Springfield, VA. 2216 I

14. NO. OFPRINTED PAGES

97

15. Price

$4.00

<»U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICEi 198 1-340-9 97/158 1 USCOMM-DC 6043-PBO

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