unconventional oil and gas: myths, facts and global … club zrich 25 f… · conventional oil vs...

Conventional Oil vs U.S. Shale: Where do we go from now?

Unconventional Oil and Gas: Myths, Facts and Global Implications

Peter Burri

SASEG: Swiss Association of Energy Geoscientists

Commodity Club Zürich23 February 2015

Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 1

The dimensions of the energy challenge I

  Energy demand will double within the next 40 – 50 y

  Assuming that this demand is supplied with nuclear plants: requires one new 1 GW nuclear plant every day for 40 y

  Result: 365 Nuclear Plants / year, presently some 440 nuclear plants worldwide


The dimensions of the energy challenge II

  2010 power demand in Switzerland was rising by 4 %

These 4% represented 50x the total installed photovoltaic capacity in Switzerland

  Study Canton Neuchâtel 2014: Covering the roofs of all buildings in canton with solar panels would cover 28% of electricity needs


The dimensions of the energy challenge III

Global Primary Energy demand growth 2002 – 2012

  Growth total + 30 %

  Growth of renewables w.o. hydro + 390 %

  Todayʼs share of renewables w.o. hydro 2.5%

BUT

  Renewables covered only 6 % of the total growth in energy. 74% of growth was fossil energy !


Lesson:

  Renewables are still far from covering growth in energy

  No single energy source will solve the world energy needs in this century

  We need a broad mix

… and much more energy efficiency and energy savings


Themes

  What is unconventional gas and oil ?

  Unconventional Techology: chances and risks

  Impact on US

  Global impact

  Gas and environment

  Implications for global energy supply


Conventional and unconventionalOil- and Gas Exploration

7source: P. Burri and W. Leu 2012Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas

Commodity Club Zürich February 2015

Oil and Gas Shales - the geological revolution

Quelle: USGS, 2011


New geological concept: Most oil and gas is left behind in the source rock - huge new volumes

Shale Gas Production

USA 2013

New Shale Gas wells : > 50ʻ000

Shale Gas

Production 2012: 550 Billion m3 (about 170 x annual demand CH)

Quelle: BGR, 2011

ETH Zürich Dez 18: Unconv. Gas -Fracking: globaler Impact 9Peter Burri (SASEG)

Fracfluid: 99.5% water and sand0.5% additives

Unconventionals: Criticism

Myths and facts



Sieht aus wie im Krieg. In den USA sind Bohrungen mit Fracking nichts Aussergewöhnliches. In der Schweiz lösen solche Szenarien Angst aus.

Example of typical media reporting on fracturing

Drilling platform today

ETH Zürich Dez 18: Unconv. Gas -Fracking: globaler Impact Peter Burri (SASEG) 12

Drilling ControlroomNorwegian N-Sea

Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas13

Criticisms: Fracking pollutes Drinking water

Depth AquifersThousands of feet of Rock between fracs and aquifers

Vertical extension of fracs Barnett shale

“Gasland” version: no relationship to reality

NB. No toxic additives used today in Europe

Criticisms: Methane leaks into soil and water


New York

Natural gas seeps: common also in Switzerland

Peter Burri (SASEG) 15Natural gas seeps Giswil OW

Bilder R. Wyss

The media-effective gas in film "Gasland" comes from coal seams and has nothing to do with fraccing

PS: The filmmaker knew it !PS: The filmmaker knew it !


Drillsite 0.04 km²

Criticism: Excessive Land Use


Surface area< 10 000 m2

Subsurface: up to10 km2

Up to 30 wells perlocation

old Method New Method

Shale Gas Cluster Production Pennsylvania

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Horizontal drilling - Typical reach of clusters

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Drilling Cluster3 km horizontal

Deviation up to 12 kmtechnically possible

Zürich HBhf

The area of Zurich could be produced from only one location

Gas Production has a small footprint

Germany: Average gas production cluster of 20 wells: ≈ 30 000 m3 natural gas/hour = 300 000 KWh on an area of max. 0.01 km2.

For the same amount of energy we need alternatively:

  400 km2 of mais crop for biogas

  200 large windturbines covering an area of 25 km2

  19 km2 of solar panels

Similar relationship for oil production

source : erdgasproduktion-in-deutschland.de


Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 21Peter Burrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii (((S(((((((((( ASEG):):):):):):):):):):):):):):):):):):):)::):):):)) UUUUUnconveeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeentnntntnnntntntntntnntntnnntnnnnnnnnn ional Oill aaaaaaaaaanaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa d Gas

Criticism: Fracking increases green house emissions

Source: US EIA , EPA Methane

-15% in 4y

- 12% in 5y

Conclusions on risks of hydraulic fracturing

Environmental accidents have occurred. They are unacceptable and harm the industry reputation.

But: All the problems can be overcome with existing practices

Safe and environmentally friendly unconventional production is possible AND IS DONE TODAY

There is today no scientific reason to ban hydraulic fracturing.

Solution: clear regulations, standards and control


All scientific institutions with relevant knowhowreject a ban of hydraulic fracturing

  AU: Australian Australian Academy of Science:

  CH: Akademien der Wissenschaften Schweiz

Eidgenössische Geologische Fachkommission:

  D: BGR (Bundesamt für Geologie und Rohstoffe)

Akademie der Technischen Wissenschaften

Oberbergamt Clausthal, deutsche Bergämter

  EU: EASAC (European Academies Science Advisory Council)

  F: BRGM (Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières

Académie des Sciences:

Société Géologique de France

  UK: British Geological Survey

The Geological Society:

Royal Society and Royal Academy of Engineering:

  USA: US Geological Survey

US Environmental Protection Agency23Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas

The problem of public perception: Chemistry is bad

Representative Poll in EU


Should the use of Dihydrogen Monoxide be forbidden in the EU ?

No

Yes

Donʼt knowH2O

Impact on US


2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

1017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0 0%

BCM/y

6%

11%

17%

23%

Source: CERA, WoodMackenzie

WoodMac 2007

CERA 2007

WoodMac 2010

CERA 2010

% of US gas demand

Actual imports

Forecast US Gas Imports (LNG)

Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 26Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas

Gas Imports/Exports US

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2 1975 1995 2015 2035 2045

Actual

Imports

Exports

AEO Forecast 2005

AEO Forecast 2014

Natural Gas Net Imports(trillion cubic feet)

Source AEO NYSE 2015

US Gas Production 1990 - 2040

20 March Gazprom Int Berlin Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Gas -Revolution in

Exploration 28

Share unconventionals 2014 > 2/3

N-America: Domestic Oil Production / Demand 2005-25


Global impact


Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 31

Unconventional Hydrocarbons are not an American geological anomaly

Modified after Halliburton 2009

Source: Economist July 2012Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas

Growth global gas reserves (incl. conventional)

Reach of Gas Resources: 250 -300 y (at present consumption)

Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 32Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas Source: IEA 2011

The end of the global oil supply growth?


* High cost oil (>80%)

Growth will come to a halt in 2015 if prices remain < 60$/BBL*

**

Top 5 contributors to growth 2014

source EIA 2015

Modified from T. Ahlbrandt 2012

What happened to the Peak Oil and –Gas?: Peak will be demand- not supply-controlled

Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 34Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas

no longer in line with facts

most likely

Gas and the global environment


Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas

BeijingJan 2014

Beijing Summer

Fine dust concentrations(NZZ March 2014/ WHO):

WHO limit: 25 mikro g/lSwitzerland: 5-15

Beijing:Regularly >100 micro g/lMax: 993 (2014)

Globally 7 Mio deaths/y from air pollution (WHO)

Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 36

AVES Schaffhausen 23 Oktober 2014 3737

Coal

Electricity is not white:Most of it comes from coal and nuclear

Coal is the single most dangerous energy source for health and environment.

IEAPeter Burri (SASEG)

Last 10y Coal consumption grew2-3 x faster than Gas6-8 x faster than Oil

Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 38Peter Burri (SSASA EG): UUUUUUUUncncncononononononveveveveventioooooooooooonaaaananananananananannananallllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll OiOOiOiOiOiOiOiOiOiOiOiOiOiOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOiOOOOOOillllllllllll anananananannanananananannananaandddddddddddddddddddddddddddd Gas 38

IndiaNew and planned coal power plants

Source: coalswarm.org

Coal is globally the fastest growing fossil fuel

AVES Schaffhausen 23 Oktober 2014 Peter Burri (SASEG) 39AVES Schaffhausen 23 Oktober 2014 Peter Burri (S((( ASEG))))

CO2 Emissions worldwide

CH ca 45 Mio t/J

Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 40CoCoCoCooCoCoCoCoCCoCoCoCCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCCCCoCooCoCoCoCoCoCoCCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCooCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCC mmmmmmmmmm odity ClCCCClCClCCClClClClCClClClCCCllClCCCCCCClCCCCCCCClCCClCClCCCllCCClllC ububububububububuubububububububububububububububububububububububuububububububububububbubububbubububbbubbubb ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZüüürüüüüüü ich Febrbrbrbrbbbbbbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrrbrbbbbbbbb uauuauuuauuauauauauauauauauauauauauauuuauuuuauauauauuauauauauuuauauuuaauuauauuuauauauaryryryryryryryryryyryyryryrryyryyryryryryyyyyryryryryyyyryy 222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222015 PePePePePePePePePePePePeeePeeePePePePePeePePeePeePePeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeePeeeeeteteteteteteteteteteteteteteteteteteteteteteeteteteteteetetetetetteteteteteteeeteteeeeteteeeeteeetteeerrrrrrr rrrrrrrrrrrrrr BuBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB rri (SASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSEGGEGEGEGEGEGEGEGEGEGEGEGEGGEEGEGEGEEGEGEGEGEGEEGEGEGGEGGGEGEGEGEGEGEGEGGGEGEGEGGEGEGEGEGEGEGEGGEGGGGEGEEGEGEG):):)):):):):):):):):):)):)):)::):):):):):):):)))::))):):):):))):):):))):):):):)))::):)))) UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUnconventntntntntnntnntntnttntnntnnnntntntntntnntnntnnnnnnnnnntnntntnn ioioioioooioioioioioooiooooooioooioioiooooooooioooooioiooooooiiooiooii nannnananananananaaanananananananannnnnnannnnanannnnaaaaallll OiOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO l and GaGaGaGaGGaGaGGaGaGaGaGaGaGaGaGaaGaGaGaGaGaGaaGaGGaGaGaGGaGaGGaGaGGGaGGGaaaGaGGaaGaGGGaGaG ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss 404040404440440400004040404040440000000040404400000000000000

Substitution of coal by gas in powergenworks: Example US

Source: US DOE, EPA

Absolute CO2 reduction:2008- 2013: - 12 %

Gas Production in Europe and Environment

Gas covers 25% of the energy supply of Europe.

For environmental reasons it makes sense to produce as much gas as possible within Europe:

  Highest safety and environmental standards (we control !)

  Short transport distances (not 4000 km from Siberia or Algeria): less loss of energy, less CO2 Emissions

  Negligible risk of Methane leaks

Environmentalists should fight for a maximum of domestic gas production

Germany does the opposite - CO2 emissions are increasing

AVES Schaffhausen 23 Oktober 2014 Peter Burri (SASEG) 41

World Energy consumption 2035 by fuel


2035fossil fuels 81% today 86%

Coal consumption remains main threat for global environment


Only gas can solve this problem in the short to mid term

Gas Bubble - good or bad for environment?

1.  Abundant worldwide gas (and oil) reserves are a reality. World Gas resources will last centuries, not decades.

2.  Gas is by far the cleanest fossil fuel

3.  Two possible reactions:

  Ban unconventionals: resulting in rising global CO2 levels and much worse air quality

  Use gas together with renewables to massively reduce emissions through substitution of coal (and partly oil)

The alternative to gas is COAL - with all consequences


AVES Schaffhausen 23 Oktober 2014 45

AVES Schaffhauuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuussssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeennnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn 2222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222233333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333 Oktober 2014 4555555555555444444444444445454555555555544444444444445555554444444445555554444444444445555555444444444444455555444444444444555555544444444444445555544444444444444445554444444444444444555554554444444444444445455545455544444444444454455555554555444444454444445455545545444444545444455554545454545454444444444455454545454444444555454545444444444454545545544444454544445545455554454544555554454545554554544444445445555454545554544545454545454554545455454444545554555554445555555

and a glance at the biggest contribution to energy demand:

…SWITCHING OFF

Peter Burri (SASEG)

Thank you for your interest

unconventional oil and gas: myths, facts and global … club zrich 25 f… · conventional oil vs...

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