Understanding and Influencing Energy Practices

Yacob Mulugetta

Centre for Environmental Strategy

University of Surrey

Themes

• Understanding energy practices– Energy basics– UK energy situation

• Influencing energy practices– Policy terrain– Consumer terrain– Research

• Issues for the future

What is energy?

• The capacity to do work -

– The more work done on a simple object, the more energy it has, meaning that it has seen an increase in its capacity to do work

• Work = Force x Displacement (Distance)

– Energy comes in many forms, kinetic (something is moving), potential (stored), heat (motion of molecules). Energy is always conserved. It is not created or destroyed but is just converted from one form to another

• Energy delivered for a period of time = Power….

– Power = Energy/Time (kWh).. Energy = Power * Time (kW)

• The First Law of thermodynamics says that Energy can be neither created or destroyed, but can only be changed from one form to another

• The first energy law (the law of conservation of energy) deals with energy transformations

• The total mass of material inputs to a transformation process is equal to total mass of material inputs

• Governs the total quantity of each atomic element during material transformations– total amount of carbon released during combustion of fossil

fuel must equal total amount of carbon in the fuel• provides a useful mass & energy balance principles in material

throughput associated with an economic activity– But does not provide the full picture of the way economic

activities may impact on the environment• Talks about quantity but not availability of energy to do useful

work

• The Second Law of Thermodynamics states that there is no such thing as a perfectly efficient energy transformation.

• The second law of energy tells us that we can't even break even.

• The second law means that there is always unavoidable loss in energy any time we transform it from one type to another

• Like the law of diminishing returns - energy becoming less and less available as it passes through successive transformations

• The efficiency to convert heat energy to electricity (35-40%)

• 60-65% ‘gone missing’ - ‘low grade’ heat - may be used for other purposes

World Energy 1850-2000

050

100150200250300350400450500

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Year

EJ/

yea

r

Gas

Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Hydro +

Biomass

World energy demand by fuel

Source: IEA; WEO

World energy demand by country

Source: IEA; WEO

ICE Bath

1000

800

600

400

200

0

M t C

200

160

120

80

40

0

g C / (2000)

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

YE AR

HISTO RIC DATA (2002) E U BAS ELINE SC ENAR IO

EU - 15 E NERG Y SECTO R CAR BO N EM ISS IO N S

CA RBO N EM ISS ION S

CA RBO N INTE NSITY

KY O TO TARG E T

C

UK ENERGY CONSUMTION BY FUELTOTAL 1838TWh

C0AL 3%

OIL 42%

RENEWABLE HEAT 1.8%

GAS 33.3%

ELECTRICITY 17.8%

UK ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTORTOTAL1838TWh

DOMESTIC 30.2%

TRANSPORT 34.7%

INDUSTRY 22.5%

SERVICES 12.6%

UK Electricity Generation

Gas39%

Coal35%

Nuclear21%

Renewables5%

(Energy Review, 2006)

UK Energy situation: Past & Present

• The latter quarter of the twentieth century saw the UK benefit from the production of North Sea oil and gas reserves.

• By 2000, the UK had grown to be the fourth largest producer of natural gas in the World and exported substantial quantities of oil. Also by 2000, North Sea oil and gas production had peaked, while the demand continued to rise. By 2005, the UK had begun to import gas. It is expected that by 2010 the UK will be importing oil, and by 2020 will be largely dependent on imported gas

UK IMMEDIATE FUTURE

• The UK is about to increase its dependence on imported sources of energy at a time of rising prices and in an increasingly competitive international market.

• Nuclear plant decommissioning• Within 10 years, loss of 10% generating capacity• Within 20 years, lose 75%

PROJECTED POWER CAPACITY

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

YEAR

GW

Renewables

Other

CCGT

Coal/Oil

Nuclear

Source: DTI

UK natural gas resources

UK projected electricity fuel mix

Defra (2006) Climate Change Programme

UK greenhouse gas emissions

UK Policy Terrain• 2000 Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution

– Recommends 60% carbon reduction by 2050• 2002 Cabinet Office Energy Review• 2003 Energy White Paper “Creating a Low Carbon Economy”

– Adopts 60% target, energy security, fuel poverty & competitive markets• 2004 Renewables Innovation Review• 2005-06

– Climate Change Policy Review– Energy Efficiency Innovation Review– Energy Review– Stern Review on the economics of climate change

• 2007 Energy White Paper– Save energy– Develop cleaner supplies– Secure reliable energy supplies at prices set in competitive markets

Fuel poverty progress(No. of households paying 10% of income on basic energy services)

Consumer terrain: Problems

• Institutional structures, infrastructure (public transport)• Social expectations, habits and routines• Economic incentives: alternatives more expensive• Behaviours and practices that underpin both direct and

indirect energy consumption patterns depend on a complex interaction of continually evolving personal values, social norms and cultural narratives

• “I will, if you will”

Defra (2006) Climate Change Programme

Consumer terrain: Policy ‘crisis’

• Consumption behaviours and practices have taken centre stage in public policy discussions like never before

• Traditional energy policy instruments of informing energy end-users and the use of price incentives have only met with limited success to achieve the level of behavioural change needed to make progress in moving towards a low carbon future

• Policies need to be supported by new forms of governance that encourage participation and ‘collectivise’ individual action

V1 Energy Mapping V2 Social and Env Psych V3 Socio-Cultural

Development and testing of robust, pragmatic energy and carbon mapping framework based on input-output, LCA and structural time series modelling.

Exploration of underlying(direct and indirect) energy demand trends by functional headings and lifestyle ‘clusters’.

Decomposition of structural, technical, and socio-demographic trends.

Extension to social and socio-structural variables using Social Accounting Matrices.

Social and environmentalpsychological influences on energy behaviours and understandings of resistance to change.

Exploration of normative and affective motivations in energy behaviours and practices.

Elaboration and testing of a ‘threatened identity’ model of resistance to change.

The role of social norms and the communal management of social and environmental resources.

Exploration of robust socio-cultural foundation for concept of ‘sustainable energy lifestyle’, drawing on:

• the social and cultural construction of identity and lifestyle narratives;

• gendered, socio-demographic and subcultural perspectives on lifestyle and meaning;

• the social distribution of lifestyle 'choice';

• social shaping of consumer-producer dialectics.

Elaboration and testing of a ‘threatened meanings’ model of resistance to change.

H1 Energy lifestyle scenarios: elaboration and testing of lifestyle scenarios, using energy mapping and informed by socio-psychological and cultural understandings of lifestyle change: a longitudinal empirical case study.

H2 Governance and policy implications: Exploration of policy options to encourage behavioural change and sustainable energy lifestyles; elaboration of governance implications: case study of policy support for community change.

V1 Energy Mapping V2 Social and Env Psych V3 Socio-Cultural

Development and testing of robust, pragmatic energy and carbon mapping framework based on input-output, LCA and structural time series modelling.

Exploration of underlying(direct and indirect) energy demand trends by functional headings and lifestyle ‘clusters’.

Decomposition of structural, technical, and socio-demographic trends.

Extension to social and socio-structural variables using Social Accounting Matrices.

Social and environmentalpsychological influences on energy behaviours and understandings of resistance to change.

Exploration of normative and affective motivations in energy behaviours and practices.

Elaboration and testing of a ‘threatened identity’ model of resistance to change.

The role of social norms and the communal management of social and environmental resources.

Exploration of robust socio-cultural foundation for concept of ‘sustainable energy lifestyle’, drawing on:

• the social and cultural construction of identity and lifestyle narratives;

• gendered, socio-demographic and subcultural perspectives on lifestyle and meaning;

• the social distribution of lifestyle 'choice';

• social shaping of consumer-producer dialectics.

Elaboration and testing of a ‘threatened meanings’ model of resistance to change.

H1 Energy lifestyle scenarios: elaboration and testing of lifestyle scenarios, using energy mapping and informed by socio-psychological and cultural understandings of lifestyle change: a longitudinal empirical case study.

H2 Governance and policy implications: Exploration of policy options to encourage behavioural change and sustainable energy lifestyles; elaboration of governance implications: case study of policy support for community change.

Research & Development

• In the field of energy, it is a widely held view that spending on RD&D is an important precursor to the technological advances

• Energy-related R&D has been declining over the past 25 years across the OECD

• This tend need reversing

Research & Development

"Investment in new renewable energy sources leads to roughly 10 times more jobs than a comparable investment in the fossil-fuel sector. This difference underscores the economic benefits of moving our economy and society from one of energy 'hunter gatherers' to one of 'energy farmers' and innovators."

Professor Daniel Kammen, Berkeley

UK energy RD&D (public) spend

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

£m

Demand Fossil fuels Renewables Fission

Fusion Power & storage Other R&D

Source: IEA

Future developments?

• US position into the coming few years – critical– Lots happening at State level– Plenty of optimism

• EU – worrying?– Still not enough awareness in many countries

• The challenge of bringing in emerging economies

Thank You!!!