yacob mulugetta centre for environmental strategy & research group on lifestyles, values and...
TRANSCRIPT
Yacob Mulugetta
Centre for Environmental Strategy & Research Group on Lifestyles, Values and Environment (RESOLVE)
University of Surrey, UK
Lustrumsymposium Sustainable Solutions: Focus on Africa1-2 November,
Deflt University of Technology
The Future of Sustainable Energy in Africa
Outline
• Sustainability - Energy Context
• The African energy picture
• What is the desirable future?
• Supply side possibilities
• Demand side interventions
• Enabling mechanisms
Social & economicwellbeing
Environmental protection
Energy security
Reliable and affordable energy
supplies are essential for
economic development
Energy security is enhanced when
indigenous energy or increased energy efficiency reduces
dependence on imported energy
Enhanced economic activity increases environmental
impacts; both local and global. The quality of indigenous
energy also determines the type and intensity of pollution
Sustainable energy context
The African energy picture
World energy demand by Region
Source: IEA; WEO
African Energy Sector – 3 distinct regions
Energy consumption - Sub-Saharan Africa
Electricity3%
Biomass81%
Petroleum15%
Gas1% Coal
0%Energy Consumption - South Africa
Biomass16%
Coal27%
Coal-based Electricity
26%
Gas2%
Petroleum29%
Energy Consumption - North Africa
Petroleum62%
Biomass4%
Coal1%
Gas18%
Electricity15%
AFREPREN
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
South
Afri
ca
Gabon
Nigeria
Zimba
bwe
Angola
Kenya
Sudan
Camer
oon
Tanza
nia
Moz
ambiq
ue
Côte
d’Ivo
ire
Ghana
DR Con
go
Ethiop
ia
Seneg
al
Zambia
Benin
Togo
Congo
Namibi
a
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear fuels
Gaseous fuels
Liquid fuels
Coal
World average
Annual per capita energy consumption by source(GJ per person - 1999)
Source: WRI: (2003). "EarthTrends: The Environmental Information Portal." 2003(January 15, 2003). http://earthtrends.wri.org/index.cfm.
Even countries with major endowments of petroleum rely heavily on biomass.
Equivalent to burning just over 1 lb. of wood every day for a year
HDI vs. Energy Consumption
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
Commercial Energy Consumption, per capita (kgoe, 2000)
Hu
man
Dev
elo
pm
ent
Ind
ex (
2002
)
HDI vs. Energy Consuption
Logarithmic Curve Fit
Household fuel transition: fuel - income
IEA, 2002
Energy-Poverty Linkages: Micro Level
Unreliable Electricity supply
No access tomodern fuels
No access tomodern fuels
No access toElectricity
Firms need back-up generators
Small enterprisescannot afford it
Low growth & employment
Women spend up to 3 hours/daygathering fuel
Productive time and labour sink
High indoorpollution
High rate of child mortality
Less time to study
Reduced access to education
•Systemic Disadvantage
•Denial of Capability
EnterpriseProductivity
HouseholdProductivity
HealthImpacts
Effects on Education
The Reality from Elsewhere
Nearly 1 billion people; generate 4% of global electricity; ¾ of that used by South Africa & countries in North Africa
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
Norway (0.19)USA (0.37)El Salvador (0.60)Thailand (0.61)Kenya (0.87)
Cu
mu
lativ
e E
lect
rici
ty C
on
sum
ptio
n (%
)
Cumulative Population (%)
The Energy Gini
Jacobson & Kammen, 2005
6. Local Rural Energy Needs Access to electricity – bottom 40% (mainly rural)
1st Quintile - Poorest Population
0%5%
0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%6%
0% 0% 0% 0%0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%C
am
ero
on
Co
ted
'ivo
re
Eth
iop
ia
Gh
an
a
Ke
nya
Na
mib
ia
Nig
eri
a
Se
ne
ga
l
So
uth
Afr
ica
Ta
nza
nia
Ug
an
da
Za
mb
ia
Zim
ba
bw
e
2nd Quintile - 2nd Poorest Population
8%
35%
0% 0% 0% 2%15%
1%
33%
0% 0% 0% 0%0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Ca
me
roo
n
Co
ted
'ivo
re
Eth
iop
ia
Gh
an
a
Ke
nya
Na
mib
ia
Nig
eri
a
Se
ne
ga
l
So
uth
Afr
ica
Ta
nza
nia
Ug
an
da
Za
mb
ia
Zim
ba
bw
e
Source: Estache, 2005
Guinea's G'bessi Airport, ConakryBetween 1999 and 2002, schools in Guinea had a modest pass rate of 30-35%. Since 2003, that has dropped to between 20 and 25%. BBC
Summary: the energy picture in Africa
• 39 countries – Oil importers– Lion’s share of export earnings (25-60%)
• Low access to electricity – (as low as 2% in rural areas) and modern fuels
• Heavy reliance on biomass
• Low technical resources at all levels
• Income is an important enabler and disabler
Wherever I have traveled, when men have neither coal nor wood nor turf, they live in miserable hovels and
have nothing comfortable about them. But when they have an adequate supply of fuel and the wit to use it
wisely they are well supplied with necessaries and live comfortable lives
Benjamin Franklin circa 1780
The desirable future?
The desirable future?
• Achievement of MDGs & beyond
• Increase per capita energy consumption
• Clean energy for local & global environment
• Increase the use of local resources & renewables
• Technologies & resources• Towards Productive
uses/income
Paradoxically!!!
• Population will double by 2030• More people living in urban
areas• More people seek access to
modern energy services• 1/10,000 engineer or scientist• 30,000 PhDs outside Africa• S&T funding less than 1%
GDP UNEP, 2004
Targets agreed by African Ministers for 2015
FEMA ECOWAS EAC CEMAC
Modern energy for cooking 50% 100% 50% 80%
Modern energy services/ electricity for basic needs in urban and peri-urban areas
75% 100% 100% 50%
Electricity for rural households
36% 35%
Electricity for schools, clinics and community centres
75% 60% 100% 56%
Mechanical power for productive uses in rural areas
100% 60% 100%
World Bank investment estimate for 100% access to electricity by 2030 - $11 billion/yearWorld Bank investment estimate for 48% access to electricity by 2030 - $4 billion/year
WB/ECOWAS estimate for all energy services by 2030 – approaches $15 billion/year
Supply side possibilities
Supply side possibilities
• Conventional systems– 70% oil exported– Most associated gas flared (71%)
• Can be converted to power using combined power cycles and generate enough to satisfy current West African needs
• Processing can be expensive: construction and operation of gas collecting system; transport to treatment plant; remove LPG, and transfer through high pressure pipeline to intended consumers.
• Strong legislation will help enormously
– Geothermal potential is huge in some parts• Already 10% of Kenya’s electricity comes from Geothermal
– Conventional systems will continue to be important, especially in the industrial and urban areas.
Supply side possibilities
• Renewables
– Solar PV and water heating– Biomass – combustion/
gasification/Cogeneration– Charcoal– Small hydro– Wind– Biofuels (large/small scale)
Solar PV
• Interesting example of PV in Kenya– Kenya – 200,000 households– Private sector driven– Superseded official rural electrification
programme– Still issues related to quality control– Largely bought by relatively wealthy– Mobile phone charging
Cogeneration
• Cogeneration CHP in Mauritius
• Successful in sale of power to the grid
• Accounts for close to 40% of a 725MW national generation capacity
• Excellent government incentives
• Potential elsewhere in Africa
Country Installed national power generation capacity from all sources, 2004 (MW)
Cogen potential using high pressure systems (MW)
Cogen potential as percentage of total installed national power generation – capacity from all sources (%)
Ethiopia 726 30.9 4.30%Kenya 1143 159.2 13.90%Malawi 238 56.5 23.70%Sudan 755 156.9 20.80%Swaziland 128 185 144.50%
Tanzania 881 97.8 11.10%Uganda 303 46 15.20%Total 4174 732.4 17.50%
Afrepren
Charcoal• Preferred by urban consumers
– 82% of urban households use charcoal
– Avg. annual consumption ~150 kg/per person
– High calorific value, Requires less attention to cook, Emits less smoke, More economical to transport, Purchased in small (daily) quantities
• Little attempt across the continent in sustainable woodfuel harvest
• Invest in charcoal production and stove research, and technology transfer (Brazil, Thailand..)
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Average Daily Exposure to SPM (g / m3)P
rob
abili
ty (
AR
I)
Charcoal
Ceramic Wood Stoves3-Stone Fire
For subjects between 5 and 50
200
400
600
800
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
BAU C
F RC
RF
Estimated deaths (x 103) from child LRI and adult female COPD
LRI: Lower respiratory illness
COPD: Chronic obstructivepulmonary disease
The macro health effects of transitions to ….
Global warming impact (GWI) from production and end-use of common household cooking fuels
50
100
150
200
250
Bertschi et al. Bertschi et al. Smith et. al.; Pennise
LPG KeroseneFirewood
(sub-Saharan Africa)Traditional kiln
(Brazil)Improved kiln
GREET model/Pennise
Charcoal
g-C
as
CO
2 p
er M
J us
eful
ene
rgy
deliv
ered
(10
0-yr
GW
P)
End-use - unsustainable biomassProduction - unsustainable biomass
Production - fossil fuelsEnd-use - fossil fuelsEnd-use - sustainable biomass
Production - sustainable biomass
Source
Location
Fuel
(sub-Saharan Africa) (US) (US)
Adapted from Bailis, Ezzati & Kammen, ES&T (2003)
Residential fuel use in Africa2000-2050
Bailis, Ezzati & Kammen, Science (2005)
Cumulative GHG emissions (2000-2050)
Bailis, Ezzati & Kammen, Science (2005)
Rising energy prices have made charcoal the most economical cooking option
Data Source: Hosier, R.H. and W. Kipondya, Urban household energy use in Tanzania. Energy Policy, 1993. May: p. 454-473. (1990); Rebecca Ghanadan, PhD Candidate, Energy and Resources Group, University of California Berkeley (2004)
Monthly Cooking Cost: Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: 1990
lowest cost option (1990)
19901990
1990
1990
1990
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Charcoal (improved)
Charcoal(unimproved)
Electricity
LPG Kerosene
Mon
thly
Coo
king
Cos
t(1
994
TS
h/m
onth
)
and 2004
lowest cost option (2004)
2004
20042004
2004
2004
Biofuels - biodiesel
• Well proven at small scale but still much uncertainty about large scale trials being initiated in various countries– At large scale, requires significant applied R&D to
establishment of new agricultural system
• High costs associated with technology transfer & adaptation
• Possible competition for land between biodiesel feedstock and food crops or land
• Environmental impacts not clear – Less important in small-scale initiative
Large-scaletechnologies mainly used bythe non-poor
Small-scaleTechnologies andRETs mainly used bythe poor
Large-scaletechnologies
Small-scaleTechnologies and RETs
Energy use in a typical eastern and southern African country
Energy investment in a typical eastern and southern African country
Ethiopia: 92% Primary energy
Ethiopia: 99.5% investment
Demand side interventions
Demand side interventions
• Improved cookstoves • Energy efficiency
– government, Eskom and Osram - 500 million energy-saving compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) to households – reduce peak demand by 100 MW
• Smart design (better awareness about energy management) - Wahel
• Rural electrification – helps rural development– Social development goals– Retaining teachers and health practitioners
• Productive uses of energy• Investment in public transport
– Encourage cycling
Enabling mechanisms
Enabling mechanisms
• Policies – Guy de Maupassant analogy– Policy in crisis or a crisis of policy
• Recognising the importance of energy at sectoral levels - Cross-sectoral partnership
• R&D – centres of excellence and HE - endogenous• Raising the voice of the poor• Financing and technology transfer• Governance: NEPAD/Maputo Declaration/ FEMA • ‘Nicolai do something’:
– Partnership between actors and institutions
Thank You!