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UNDERSTANDING RISK AND UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

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Page 1: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

UNDERSTANDING RISK AND UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTIONRISK REDUCTION

Dr. Walter Hays,

Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

Page 2: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

APPLYING WHAT WE KNOW APPLYING WHAT WE KNOW INNOVATIVELY AND INNOVATIVELY AND

STRATEGICALLY TO ACHIEVE STRATEGICALLY TO ACHIEVE SOCIETAL SUSTAINABILITYSOCIETAL SUSTAINABILITY

A FRAMEWORK FOR LIVING WITH A FRAMEWORK FOR LIVING WITH THE INSTABILITIES CAUSED BY THE INSTABILITIES CAUSED BY THE ONSET OF ENVIRONMENTAL THE ONSET OF ENVIRONMENTAL

EXTREMESEXTREMES

Page 3: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

OUR WORLD IS AT RISKOUR WORLD IS AT RISK FLOODSFLOODS SEVERE SEVERE

WINDSTORMSWINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES TSUNAMISTSUNAMIS DROUGHTSDROUGHTS VOLCANIC VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONSERUPTIONS LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES WILDFIRESWILDFIRES

Page 4: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

ANNUAL FREQUENCYANNUAL FREQUENCYANNUAL FREQUENCYANNUAL FREQUENCY 100,000 THUNDERSTORMS100,000 THUNDERSTORMS 10,000 FLOODS10,000 FLOODS THOUSANDS OF MODERATE TO LARGE-THOUSANDS OF MODERATE TO LARGE-

VOLUME LANDSLIDESVOLUME LANDSLIDES THOUSANDS OFTHOUSANDS OF WILDFIRESWILDFIRES 100 DAMAGING SIZE EARTHQUAKES 100 DAMAGING SIZE EARTHQUAKES SCORES TO HUNDREDS OFSCORES TO HUNDREDS OF SEVERE SEVERE

WINDSTORMSWINDSTORMS ABOUT TEN VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS, ABOUT TEN VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS,

TSUNAMIS, AND DROUGHTSTSUNAMIS, AND DROUGHTS

100,000 THUNDERSTORMS100,000 THUNDERSTORMS 10,000 FLOODS10,000 FLOODS THOUSANDS OF MODERATE TO LARGE-THOUSANDS OF MODERATE TO LARGE-

VOLUME LANDSLIDESVOLUME LANDSLIDES THOUSANDS OFTHOUSANDS OF WILDFIRESWILDFIRES 100 DAMAGING SIZE EARTHQUAKES 100 DAMAGING SIZE EARTHQUAKES SCORES TO HUNDREDS OFSCORES TO HUNDREDS OF SEVERE SEVERE

WINDSTORMSWINDSTORMS ABOUT TEN VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS, ABOUT TEN VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS,

TSUNAMIS, AND DROUGHTSTSUNAMIS, AND DROUGHTS

Page 5: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

EVERY COMMUNITY IS AT RISK EVERY COMMUNITY IS AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS, FROM NATURAL HAZARDS,

WHICH CREATES AN URGENT WHICH CREATES AN URGENT NEED FOR NEED FOR PUBLIC POLICIES PUBLIC POLICIES AND STRATEGIC PLANSAND STRATEGIC PLANS TO TO PREVENT, MITIGATE, AND PREVENT, MITIGATE, AND

PREPARE FOR THE INEVITABLEPREPARE FOR THE INEVITABLE

Page 6: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

DISASTER RISK DISASTER RISK REDUCTIONREDUCTION

•PREVENTION-MITIGATION•PREPAREDNESS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY•ADAPTATION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

Page 7: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

ALL PUBLIC POLICIES SHOULD ALL PUBLIC POLICIES SHOULD BE BASED ON AN BE BASED ON AN

UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT CAN UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT CAN HAPPEN AND AN HAPPEN AND AN

IMPLEMENTATION PLAN TO IMPLEMENTATION PLAN TO KEEP IT FROM HAPPENINGKEEP IT FROM HAPPENING. .

ALL PUBLIC POLICIES SHOULD ALL PUBLIC POLICIES SHOULD BE BASED ON AN BE BASED ON AN

UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT CAN UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT CAN HAPPEN AND AN HAPPEN AND AN

IMPLEMENTATION PLAN TO IMPLEMENTATION PLAN TO KEEP IT FROM HAPPENINGKEEP IT FROM HAPPENING. .

Page 8: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

THE VISION THE VISION ISIS

SUSTAINABLESUSTAINABLE URBAN URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND QUALITY DEVELOPMENT AND QUALITY

OF LIFEOF LIFE IN EVERY COMMUNITYIN EVERY COMMUNITY

THE VISION THE VISION ISIS

SUSTAINABLESUSTAINABLE URBAN URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND QUALITY DEVELOPMENT AND QUALITY

OF LIFEOF LIFE IN EVERY COMMUNITYIN EVERY COMMUNITY

Page 9: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISK

EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION

RISKRISKRISKRISK

Page 10: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

A DISASTER IMPACTS ALL A DISASTER IMPACTS ALL SOCIETAL ELEMENTSSOCIETAL ELEMENTS

Page 11: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF DISASTER REDUCTIONDISASTER REDUCTION

INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF DISASTER REDUCTIONDISASTER REDUCTION

GOAL: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDAGOAL: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDA(CA) OF TECHNICAL (CA) OF TECHNICAL

AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONSAND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS

GOAL: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDAGOAL: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDA(CA) OF TECHNICAL (CA) OF TECHNICAL

AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONSAND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS

TECHNICAL TECHNICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONSTECHNICAL TECHNICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONS

POLITICAL POLITICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONSPOLITICAL POLITICAL

SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONS

CACA

Page 12: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

COMMON AGENDA FOR COMMON AGENDA FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

COMMON AGENDA FOR COMMON AGENDA FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

PREVENTION PREVENTION (CONTROL THE (CONTROL THE SOURCE)SOURCE)

PROTECTION PROTECTION (BUILD TO (BUILD TO WITHSTAND)WITHSTAND)

LAND-USE LAND-USE CONTROL CONTROL (AVOIDANCE)(AVOIDANCE)

PREVENTION PREVENTION (CONTROL THE (CONTROL THE SOURCE)SOURCE)

PROTECTION PROTECTION (BUILD TO (BUILD TO WITHSTAND)WITHSTAND)

LAND-USE LAND-USE CONTROL CONTROL (AVOIDANCE)(AVOIDANCE)

Page 13: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

COMMON AGENDA FOR COMMON AGENDA FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

COMMON AGENDA FOR COMMON AGENDA FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

SITE MODIFICATION SITE MODIFICATION ALERT/WARNING/ ALERT/WARNING/

MAPS/MONITORINGMAPS/MONITORING RESPONSE TO RESPONSE TO

ALERT/WARNING/ ALERT/WARNING/ MAPS/MONITORING MAPS/MONITORING TO MOVE PEOPLE TO MOVE PEOPLE OUR OF HARM’S OUR OF HARM’S WAYWAY

SITE MODIFICATION SITE MODIFICATION ALERT/WARNING/ ALERT/WARNING/

MAPS/MONITORINGMAPS/MONITORING RESPONSE TO RESPONSE TO

ALERT/WARNING/ ALERT/WARNING/ MAPS/MONITORING MAPS/MONITORING TO MOVE PEOPLE TO MOVE PEOPLE OUR OF HARM’S OUR OF HARM’S WAYWAY

Page 14: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

MEDITERRANEAN REGION’S MEDITERRANEAN REGION’S HAZARDSHAZARDS

MEDITERRANEAN REGION’S MEDITERRANEAN REGION’S HAZARDSHAZARDS

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES FLOODSFLOODS DROUGHTSDROUGHTS LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES TSUNAMISTSUNAMIS VOLCANIC VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONSERUPTIONS ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL

DEGRADATIONDEGRADATION

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES FLOODSFLOODS DROUGHTSDROUGHTS LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES TSUNAMISTSUNAMIS VOLCANIC VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONSERUPTIONS ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL

DEGRADATIONDEGRADATION

Page 15: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

SUB-SAHARA AFRICA’S SUB-SAHARA AFRICA’S PROBLEMS AND HAZARDSPROBLEMS AND HAZARDS

SUB-SAHARA AFRICA’S SUB-SAHARA AFRICA’S PROBLEMS AND HAZARDSPROBLEMS AND HAZARDS

POLITICAL POLITICAL INSTABILITYINSTABILITY

FLOODSFLOODS DROUGHTSDROUGHTS ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL

IMPACTS ON AIR, IMPACTS ON AIR, WATER, AND SOILWATER, AND SOIL

ENDANGERED ENDANGERED SPECIESSPECIES

HEALTH CONCERNSHEALTH CONCERNS

POLITICAL POLITICAL INSTABILITYINSTABILITY

FLOODSFLOODS DROUGHTSDROUGHTS ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL

IMPACTS ON AIR, IMPACTS ON AIR, WATER, AND SOILWATER, AND SOIL

ENDANGERED ENDANGERED SPECIESSPECIES

HEALTH CONCERNSHEALTH CONCERNS

Page 16: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

EUROPE’S HAZARDSEUROPE’S HAZARDS EUROPE’S HAZARDSEUROPE’S HAZARDS

FLOODSFLOODS GLOBAL CHANGEGLOBAL CHANGE SEVERE SEVERE

WINDSTORMSWINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL

DEGRADATIONDEGRADATION

FLOODSFLOODS GLOBAL CHANGEGLOBAL CHANGE SEVERE SEVERE

WINDSTORMSWINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL

DEGRADATIONDEGRADATION

Page 17: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN BASIN’S HAZARDSBASIN’S HAZARDS

LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN BASIN’S HAZARDSBASIN’S HAZARDS

HURRICANESHURRICANES EARTHQUAKES/EARTHQUAKES/TSU-TSU-

NAMISNAMIS FLOODSFLOODS GLOBAL CHANGEGLOBAL CHANGE LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES VOLCANIC VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONSERUPTIONS ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL

IMPACTSIMPACTS

HURRICANESHURRICANES EARTHQUAKES/EARTHQUAKES/TSU-TSU-

NAMISNAMIS FLOODSFLOODS GLOBAL CHANGEGLOBAL CHANGE LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES VOLCANIC VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONSERUPTIONS ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL

IMPACTSIMPACTS

Page 18: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

SOUTH AMERICA/CARIBBEAN SOUTH AMERICA/CARIBBEAN BASIN’S HAZARDSBASIN’S HAZARDS

SOUTH AMERICA/CARIBBEAN SOUTH AMERICA/CARIBBEAN BASIN’S HAZARDSBASIN’S HAZARDS

HURRICANESHURRICANES EARTHQUAKES/EARTHQUAKES/TSU-TSU-

NAMISNAMIS FLOODSFLOODS GLOBAL CHANGEGLOBAL CHANGE LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES VOLCANIC VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONSERUPTIONS ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL

IMPACTSIMPACTS

HURRICANESHURRICANES EARTHQUAKES/EARTHQUAKES/TSU-TSU-

NAMISNAMIS FLOODSFLOODS GLOBAL CHANGEGLOBAL CHANGE LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES VOLCANIC VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONSERUPTIONS ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL

IMPACTSIMPACTS

Page 19: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

PACIFIC REGION’S HAZARDSPACIFIC REGION’S HAZARDSPACIFIC REGION’S HAZARDSPACIFIC REGION’S HAZARDS

SEVERE SEVERE WINDSTORMSWINDSTORMS

FLOODSFLOODS EARTHQUAKES/EARTHQUAKES/TSU-TSU-

NAMISNAMIS WILDFIRESWILDFIRES

SEVERE SEVERE WINDSTORMSWINDSTORMS

FLOODSFLOODS EARTHQUAKES/EARTHQUAKES/TSU-TSU-

NAMISNAMIS WILDFIRESWILDFIRES

Page 20: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

ASIA’S HAZARDSASIA’S HAZARDS ASIA’S HAZARDSASIA’S HAZARDS

FLOODSFLOODS EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES TSUNAMISTSUNAMIS CYCLONES/TYPHOONSCYCLONES/TYPHOONS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONSVOLCANIC ERUPTIONS LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES DROUGHTSDROUGHTS ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL

DEGRADATIONDEGRADATION

FLOODSFLOODS EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES TSUNAMISTSUNAMIS CYCLONES/TYPHOONSCYCLONES/TYPHOONS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONSVOLCANIC ERUPTIONS LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES DROUGHTSDROUGHTS ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL

DEGRADATIONDEGRADATION

Page 21: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

INDIAN OCEAN AREA’S INDIAN OCEAN AREA’S HAZARDSHAZARDS

INDIAN OCEAN AREA’S INDIAN OCEAN AREA’S HAZARDSHAZARDS

FLOODSFLOODS EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES TSUNAMISTSUNAMIS CYCLONES/TYPHOONSCYCLONES/TYPHOONS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONSVOLCANIC ERUPTIONS LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES DROUGHTSDROUGHTS ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL

DEGRADATIONDEGRADATION

FLOODSFLOODS EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES TSUNAMISTSUNAMIS CYCLONES/TYPHOONSCYCLONES/TYPHOONS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONSVOLCANIC ERUPTIONS LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES DROUGHTSDROUGHTS ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL

DEGRADATIONDEGRADATION

Page 22: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

INDIAN OCEAN TSUNAMI: 26 INDIAN OCEAN TSUNAMI: 26 DECEMBER 2004DECEMBER 2004

Page 23: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

NORTH AMERICA’S HAZARDSNORTH AMERICA’S HAZARDS NORTH AMERICA’S HAZARDSNORTH AMERICA’S HAZARDS

FLOODSFLOODS HURRICANESHURRICANES EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES TORNADOESTORNADOES ICE STORMS ICE STORMS VOLCANIC VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONSERUPTIONS LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES

FLOODSFLOODS HURRICANESHURRICANES EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES TORNADOESTORNADOES ICE STORMS ICE STORMS VOLCANIC VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONSERUPTIONS LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES

Page 24: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

EASTERN NORTH AMERICA’S EASTERN NORTH AMERICA’S HAZARDSHAZARDS

EASTERN NORTH AMERICA’S EASTERN NORTH AMERICA’S HAZARDSHAZARDS

FLOODSFLOODS HURRICANESHURRICANES EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES TORNADOESTORNADOES ICE STORMS ICE STORMS LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES

FLOODSFLOODS HURRICANESHURRICANES EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES TORNADOESTORNADOES ICE STORMS ICE STORMS LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES

Page 25: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

EDUCATION EDUCATION

GOAL: GOAL: DISASTER RISK DISASTER RISK

REDUCTIONREDUCTION

PRIVATE SECTORPRIVATE SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR

PUBLIC SECTOR

ACADEMIAACADEMIA

FUNCTIONAL FUNCTIONAL NETWORKING NETWORKING

CHANNELSCHANNELS

INFORMATION INFORMATION NETWORKING NETWORKING

CHANNELSCHANNELSORGANIZATION ORGANIZATION NETWORKING NETWORKING

CHANNELSCHANNELS

INNOVATIONINNOVATION

COMMUNITY COMMUNITY STAKEHOLDERSSTAKEHOLDERS

Stratec ConsultingStratec Consulting

Page 26: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

EDUCATION

UNDER-STANDUNDER-STAND

IDENT-IFY

IDENT-IFY

HEARHEAR

PERSON-ALIZE

PERSON-ALIZE ACTACT

PERIOD OF PERIOD OF INTEGRATIONINTEGRATION

WINDOW OF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITYOPPORTUNITY

PERIOD OF PERIOD OF IMPLEMENTATIONIMPLEMENTATION

Page 27: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

EMERGING KNOWLEDGE AND EMERGING KNOWLEDGE AND TECHNOLOGY FOR RISK TECHNOLOGY FOR RISK

REDUCTIONREDUCTION

EMERGING KNOWLEDGE AND EMERGING KNOWLEDGE AND TECHNOLOGY FOR RISK TECHNOLOGY FOR RISK

REDUCTIONREDUCTION TSUNAMI WARNING TSUNAMI WARNING

SYSTEMSYSTEM REAL-TIME REAL-TIME

MONITORINGMONITORING REMOTE SENSING REMOTE SENSING

AND MEASURMENT AND MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GPS)GPS)

INFORMATION INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GIS)(E.G., GIS)

TSUNAMI WARNING TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEMSYSTEM

REAL-TIME REAL-TIME MONITORINGMONITORING

REMOTE SENSING REMOTE SENSING AND MEASURMENT AND MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GPS)GPS)

INFORMATION INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GIS)(E.G., GIS)

DISASTER DISASTER SCENARIOSSCENARIOS

HAZARD ZONATIONHAZARD ZONATION ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ACTIVE AND PASSIVE

ENERGY DISSIPATION ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICESDEVICES

CASE HISTORIES AND CASE HISTORIES AND BEST PRACTICESBEST PRACTICES

DISASTER DISASTER SCENARIOSSCENARIOS

HAZARD ZONATIONHAZARD ZONATION ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ACTIVE AND PASSIVE

ENERGY DISSIPATION ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICESDEVICES

CASE HISTORIES AND CASE HISTORIES AND BEST PRACTICESBEST PRACTICES

Page 28: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

RISK REDUCTION

• PREVENTION-MITIGATION

• PREPAREDNESS

• PREDICTION, WARNING, AND EVACUATION

• ADAPTATION

• EMERGENCY RESPONSE

• RECOVERY

• MONITORING

RISK REDUCTION

• PREVENTION-MITIGATION

• PREPAREDNESS

• PREDICTION, WARNING, AND EVACUATION

• ADAPTATION

• EMERGENCY RESPONSE

• RECOVERY

• MONITORING

TECHNOLOGY BASE

TECHNOLOGY BASE

REDUCTION OF COMMUNITY VULERABILTY

POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS

POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS

RESEARCHRESEARCH

Page 29: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

BENEFIT/COST OF BECOMING BENEFIT/COST OF BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENTDISASTER RESILIENT

BENEFIT/COST OF BECOMING BENEFIT/COST OF BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENTDISASTER RESILIENT

PUBLIC AWARENESSPUBLIC AWARENESS

ENABLES ALL SECTORS ENABLES ALL SECTORS OF THE PUBLIC TO KNOW OF THE PUBLIC TO KNOW THEIR RISKSTHEIR RISKS AND COPE AND COPE WITH THEMWITH THEM

1 < 1 < BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST < < 1,0001,000

PUBLIC AWARENESSPUBLIC AWARENESS

ENABLES ALL SECTORS ENABLES ALL SECTORS OF THE PUBLIC TO KNOW OF THE PUBLIC TO KNOW THEIR RISKSTHEIR RISKS AND COPE AND COPE WITH THEMWITH THEM

1 < 1 < BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST < < 1,0001,000

Page 30: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

BENEFIT/COST OF BECOMING BENEFIT/COST OF BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENTDISASTER RESILIENT

BENEFIT/COST OF BECOMING BENEFIT/COST OF BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENTDISASTER RESILIENT

EDUCATION AND EDUCATION AND TRAININGTRAINING

EXPANDS EXPANDS PROFESSIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL AND POLITICAL CAPACITY POLITICAL CAPACITY

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 100100

EDUCATION AND EDUCATION AND TRAININGTRAINING

EXPANDS EXPANDS PROFESSIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL AND POLITICAL CAPACITY POLITICAL CAPACITY

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 100100

Page 31: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

BUILDING IN FLOOD PLAIN

FLOODSFLOODS

INUNDATION AND SCOUR

INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

EFFECTS OF WATER ON STRUCTURE & CONTENTS

INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEALTH PROBLEMS, INJURIES,

AND DEATH

LOSS OF FUNCTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

VULNERABILITY OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

Page 32: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

WIND AND WATER PENETRATE BUILDING ENVELOPE

SEVERE

WINDSTORMS

SEVERE

WINDSTORMS

UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM

FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES WINDOWS

STORM SURGE AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

POOR WORKMANSHIP

IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

Page 33: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE FAULTING )

IRREGULARITIES IN MASS, STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS

FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP AND SEICHE

POOR DETAILING OF STRUCTURALSYSTEM

IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

Page 34: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES

TSUNAMIS TSUNAMIS

INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP

VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS

FLOODING

NO WARNING, OR INADEQUATE WARNING

PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

Page 35: UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION UNDERSTANDING RISK AND RISK REDUCTION Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

PROXIMITY TO LATERAL BLAST

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS (TEPHRA)

IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH (AVIATION)

IN PATH OF LAVA FLOWS

IN PATH OF LAHARS

IGNORING WARNING TO EVACUATE

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

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BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES

LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO FALLS

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO TOPPLES

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO SPREADS

SOIL AND ROCK SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS

EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION OR GROUND SHAKING

BARE, OVERSTEEPENED SLOPES

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

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PROLONGED LACK OF PRECIPITATION

DROUGHTS DROUGHTS

LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE

LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY

DEPLETION/POLLUTION OF GROUND WATER

LOSS OF VEGETATION

INSECT INFESTATION

PROGRESSIVE LOSS OF LAND BY DESERTIFICATION

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

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LIGHTNING STRIKES

WILDFIRESWILDFIRES

MANMADE FIRES

PROXIMITY OF URBAN-WILDLANDS INTERFACE

WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED

DEFORESTATION

DENUDED SLOPES

HOT, DRY WEATHER

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

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ACTIONS FOR TSUNAMI-PRONE COUNTRIES ACTIONS FOR TSUNAMI-PRONE COUNTRIES ACTIONS FOR TSUNAMI-PRONE COUNTRIES ACTIONS FOR TSUNAMI-PRONE COUNTRIES

TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY TO IMPROVE TSUNAMI WARNING CAPABILITY

EDUCATION FOR A TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT FOR A TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM

STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS FOR A TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM

ONGOING DIALOGUE ON THE CHALLENGE OF BECOMING TSUNAMI DISASTER RESILIENT

TOWARD TSUNAMI DISASTER RESILIENCE

TOWARD TSUNAMI DISASTER RESILIENCE

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BOOK OF

BOOK OF

KNOWLEDGE

KNOWLEDGE

- Perspectives

- Perspectives

On Science, Policy,

On Science, Policy,

And Change

And Change