union gaming analytics (michael greene)
TRANSCRIPT
Union Gaming Analytics
Gaming Market Study
Presentation to the Kansas Lottery Gaming Facility Review Board
June 10, 2015
Team
• Union Gaming Analytics, LLC • Michael Greene, Rich Baldwin, and Bill Lerner
• Casinonomics Consulting, LLC • Doug Walker
• Civic Economics • Matt Cunningham and Dan Houston
• Cummings Associates • Will Cummings
• Ekay Economic Consultants • Eugenia Larmore
• Macomber International Inc. • Dean Macomber
Agenda • Methodology and Projections
• Union Gaming Analytics • Cummings Associates
• Fiscal Impacts on Municipalities and the State of Kansas • Ekay Economic Consultants
• Amenities and Fit • Macomber International
• Economic Impacts • Civic Economics
• Reinforcement of Economic Impacts and Competition • Casinonomics
• Financial Suitability • Union Gaming Analytics
• Questions • All Consultants
Union Gaming is a portfolio of companies focused exclusively on the global gaming
industry. The companies specialize in institutional equity research, securities dealing,
investment banking, and gaming-related market and economic analyses. Through its
Union Gaming Analytics subsidiary, the company conducts gaming, feasibility, and
economic impact studies for both corporate and government entities. The
company also provides legislative and regulatory support for gaming related
activities globally. Union Gaming Advisors is an SEC registered and FINRA member
firm that focuses on capital raising, mergers and acquisitions, securities dealing, and
strategic advisory. Union Gaming Securities Asia Limited is a licensed corporation with
the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) in Hong Kong. Founded in 2009, the
company is headquartered in Las Vegas, with offices in Hong Kong, Macau, and New
York, NY.
4
Best-in-class Team with Extensive Gaming Industry Experience
Rich Baldwin:
Managing
Director,
Head of Union
Gaming Analytics
Baldwin has over 20 years of corporate finance, capital markets, investor relations and general management experience spanning the global gaming industry. Baldwin has held several executive level positions, including Chief Financial Officer at Tropicana Entertainment, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Shuffle Master Gaming (NASDAQ: “SHFL”) and Director of Corporate Finance & Investor Relations at International Game Technology (NYSE: “IGT”). Baldwin started his career on the client service side with Deloitte & Touche LLP, at which time he received his CPA license in the state of Nevada. Baldwin graduated from the University of Nevada, Las Vegas and also earned his MBA from The Paul Merage School of Business at The University of California, Irvine.
Michael Greene
Vice President,
Analytics,
Las Vegas
Greene has over 14 years of corporate finance, investment banking, investor relations, and private equity experience in the gaming and lodging industries. Greene joined Union Gaming Analytics in March 2014 as a Director. Prior to joining the firm, Greene managed the investor relations department at International Game Technology (NYSE: “IGT”). Prior to IGT, he was a Vice President with a private equity firm focused on the lodging industry and worked in corporate finance at Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE: “PNK”). Greene began his career as an investment banker at Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc. in their real estate, gaming, lodging and leisure department. Greene received a B.B.A. from The University of Michigan.
Bill Lerner
Senior Partner,
Head of
Investment
Banking,
Las Vegas
Lerner has spent 19 years on Wall Street in sell side research. Most recently he acted as Managing Director and Senior Gaming & Lodging analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities. This followed ten years at Prudential Securities and Deutsche Morgan Grenfell. Lerner has been recognized by Institutional Investor as part of its "All American Research Team" and Wall Street Journal's "Best of the Street.”
Introduction
• Union Gaming has been engaged by the Kansas Racing and Gaming Commission and the Lottery Gaming Facility Review Board to provide consulting services in their selection of a facility manager for the southeast gaming zone of Kansas
• Based on Union Gaming’s comprehensive and thorough analysis of the three applicants, we determined the following for each applicant:
• Gross Gaming Revenue (“GGR”) • In-state versus out-of-state GGR • In-state versus out-of-state visitation • Tax Revenue – state and local share • EBITDA & EBITDA Margin
Executive Summary 2019
($ in millions except per unit amounts) Camptown Castle Kansas
Casino Rock Crossing
# of Slots 750 1,400 625
# of Table Games (including poker) 20 51 16
# of Hotel Rooms 62 200 120
GGR $43.9 $47.8 $39.0
Kansas $18.9 $14.8 $15.9
Out-of-State $25.0 $33.0 $23.1
% Kansas 43.0% 30.9% 40.8%
% Out-of-State 57.0% 69.1% 59.2%
Total Visitation 608,493 687,501 540,753
Kansas 261,636 212,615 220,612
Out-of-State 346,857 474,886 320,141
% Kansas 43.0% 30.9% 40.8%
% Out-of-State 57.0% 69.1% 59.2%
Total Taxes Paid $11.8 $12.9 $10.5
State Share @ 22.0% $9.7 $10.5 $8.6
Problem Gambling Share @ 2.0% $0.9 $1.0 $0.8
Total State Taxes $10.5 $11.5 $9.4
Local Share @ 3.0% $1.3 $1.4 $1.2
Methodology
• Examined population and income demographics within a 30-minute, 60-minute and 120-minute drive time radius for the each of the proposed casino sites in southeast Kansas
• We established a theoretical gaming market by county for each proposed casino • Apply proprietary capture rates based on competitive dynamics, competitive set,
proximity to the closest casino, asset quality, and other forms of gaming to define what percentage of the theoretical market each segment (immediate local, local and regional) will capture
Methodology
• Examined population and income demographics within a 30-minute, 60-minute and 120-minute drive time radius for the each of the proposed casino sites in southeast Kansas
2015
2015 2015 Adult Gaming 2015
Camptown Casino Population Adult Population Population Per capita income
0-30-minute drive 51,939 38,477 12,315 $19,219
30-60-minute drive 308,414 224,731 71,930 $19,899
60-120-minute drive 2,871,550 2,094,183 670,288 $22,017
Total 3,231,903 2,357,391 754,534 $21,770
Methodology
• We established a theoretical gaming market by county for each proposed casino % of Theo
Distance to Drive Time Adult Per Capita Avg Median Per Capita Gaming Market
Castle Rock Castle Rock Population Adult Gaming Income Household Household Income per County
County State (miles) (minutes) (2015) Population Population (2015) Income Income Spent on Gaming ($ in millions)
Cherokee County Kansas - - 21,327 15,802 5,058 $19,332 $48,223 $38,182 3.5% $3.4
Jasper County Missouri 21.2 21 120,292 86,677 27,743 $19,848 $50,687 $39,343 3.5% $19.3
Ottawa County Oklahoma 19.8 21 32,314 23,633 7,564 $18,452 $47,284 $36,958 3.5% $4.9
Newton County Missouri 20.5 22 60,133 44,114 14,120 $21,109 $55,336 $40,738 3.5% $10.4
Crawford County Kansas 35.8 40 39,683 29,510 9,445 $19,316 $47,552 $36,997 3.5% $6.4
McDonald County Missouri 45.6 44 24,018 17,086 5,469 $16,489 $45,318 $36,203 3.5% $3.2
Barton County Missouri 49.9 47 12,256 8,967 2,870 $19,121 $47,854 $39,053 3.5% $1.9
Craig County Oklahoma 46.9 47 15,076 11,533 3,691 $19,632 $50,610 $38,315 3.5% $2.5
Lawrence County Missouri 53.8 51 39,357 28,576 9,146 $18,823 $48,659 $38,810 3.5% $6.0
Labette County Kansas 49.6 54 21,382 15,896 5,088 $20,032 $48,735 $40,026 3.5% $3.6
Delaware County Oklahoma 53.9 58 42,890 33,002 10,563 $21,734 $52,225 $37,473 3.5% $8.0
Vernon County Missouri 75.4 69 21,328 15,588 4,989 $18,510 $45,456 $35,325 3.5% $3.2
Benton County Arkansas 69.5 72 240,162 168,638 53,976 $27,037 $73,014 $54,828 3.5% $51.1
Bourbon County Kansas 66.2 73 15,163 10,928 3,498 $19,843 $50,049 $38,113 3.5% $2.4
Dade County Missouri 70.6 73 7,897 6,060 1,940 $17,933 $42,680 $31,974 3.5% $1.2
Mayes County Oklahoma 74.3 73 41,798 30,649 9,810 $20,362 $52,158 $42,168 3.5% $7.0
Barry County Missouri 65.5 74 36,445 27,305 8,740 $18,946 $47,797 $36,783 3.5% $5.8
Greene County Missouri 79.1 75 281,998 214,110 68,531 $23,578 $55,474 $38,801 3.5% $56.6
Nowata County Oklahoma 72.7 76 10,516 7,930 2,538 $18,639 $46,265 $36,407 3.5% $1.7
Rogers County Oklahoma 81.1 77 90,177 65,973 21,116 $27,348 $73,670 $58,525 3.5% $20.2
Montgomery County Kansas 69.9 79 35,004 25,831 8,268 $19,829 $48,512 $37,945 3.5% $5.7
Washington County Arkansas 89.7 87 215,294 153,485 49,126 $21,534 $56,272 $40,821 3.5% $37.0
Christian County Missouri 93.4 87 81,418 58,013 18,568 $24,173 $64,128 $52,045 3.5% $15.7
Neosho County Kansas 83.5 89 16,475 12,093 3,871 $22,067 $54,391 $41,510 3.5% $3.0
Tulsa County Oklahoma 101.3 91 625,723 453,719 145,223 $27,928 $69,262 $48,772 3.5% $142.0
Washington County Oklahoma 89.5 93 52,078 39,089 12,511 $27,620 $66,579 $49,847 3.5% $12.1
Polk County Missouri 104.3 96 31,030 22,655 7,251 $18,160 $47,007 $36,553 3.5% $4.6
Wilson County Kansas 96.3 97 9,382 7,071 2,263 $19,432 $46,209 $35,889 3.5% $1.5
Bates County Missouri 106.3 99 16,837 12,523 4,008 $19,307 $48,171 $36,561 3.5% $2.7
Cedar County Missouri 92.0 99 14,003 10,562 3,381 $16,757 $39,904 $31,738 3.5% $2.0
Wagoner County Oklahoma 107.4 103 75,979 54,947 17,587 $26,033 $70,395 $55,686 3.5% $16.0
Chautauqua County Kansas 97.0 103 3,577 2,824 904 $24,281 $54,492 $37,733 3.5% $0.8
Linn County Kansas 97.0 104 9,774 7,448 2,384 $22,692 $53,990 $47,785 3.5% $1.9
Webster County Missouri 110.2 104 36,783 26,190 8,383 $18,814 $51,339 $41,449 3.5% $5.5
Dallas County Missouri 115.4 107 16,595 12,349 3,953 $18,260 $46,493 $37,598 3.5% $2.5
Allen County Kansas 103.4 109 13,388 9,932 3,179 $20,749 $49,970 $40,068 3.5% $2.3
Creek County Oklahoma 123.4 113 71,260 52,933 16,942 $21,818 $56,688 $43,115 3.5% $12.9
Cherokee County Oklahoma 115.4 115 48,835 35,713 11,431 $18,364 $47,638 $35,855 3.5% $7.3
Muskogee County Oklahoma 115.5 115 71,290 52,408 16,774 $20,450 $52,791 $38,922 3.5% $12.0
Stone County Missouri 103.4 115 32,110 25,946 8,305 $21,728 $50,776 $39,225 3.5% $6.3
Laclede County Missouri 130.4 117 36,016 26,466 8,471 $18,974 $47,665 $37,548 3.5% $5.6
Taney County Missouri 121.3 117 55,000 41,780 13,373 $19,171 $47,374 $37,142 3.5% $9.0
St. Clair County Missouri 118.1 119 9,871 7,797 2,496 $17,536 $40,670 $30,319 3.5% $1.5
Carroll County Arkansas 102.3 120 27,721 21,164 6,774 $20,138 $48,144 $35,842 3.5% $4.8
2,779,655 2,034,915 651,318 $533.7
Methodology
• Apply proprietary capture rates based on competitive dynamics, competitive set, proximity to the closest casino, asset quality, and other forms of gaming to define what percentage of the theoretical market each segment (immediate local, local and regional) will capture
Methodology
• Apply proprietary capture rates based on competitive dynamics, competitive set, proximity to the closest casino, asset quality, and other forms of gaming to define what percentage of the theoretical market each segment (immediate local, local and regional) will capture
Camptown
2015
2015 2015 Adult Gaming 2015
Camptown Casino Population Adult Population Population Per capita income
0-30-minute drive 51,939 38,477 12,315 $19,219
30-60-minute drive 308,414 224,731 71,930 $19,899
60-120-minute drive 2,871,550 2,094,183 670,288 $22,017
Total 3,231,903 2,357,391 754,534 $21,770
Project Scope • 750 Slots • 20 Tables • 62 Hotel Rooms
The map on the right shows 3 separate drive time zones surrounding the proposed site of Camptown Casino, and the table below shows the relevant information in each zone used for the theoretical market estimation
Camptown – Competitive Landscape
• Apply proprietary capture rates based on competitive dynamics, competitive set, proximity to the closest casino, asset quality, and other forms of gaming to define what percentage of the theoretical market each segment (immediate local, local and regional) will capture
Distance to Distance to Hotel Total Gaming Fair Share
Property Location Opening Date Camptown (miles) Camptown (minutes) Slots Tables Rooms Positions by Position
Camptown Casino Frontenac, KS -
- 750 20 62 870 4.1%
Downstream Casino Resort Quapaw, OK 2008 39.6 44 2,000 50 374 2,300 11.0%
Quapaw Casino Miami, OK 2000 44.2 50 500 4 - 524 2.5%
High Winds Casino Miami, OK 2006 45.1 51 500 - - 500 2.4%
Buffalo Run Casino Miami, OK 2004 46.3 53 800 15 100 890 4.2%
Prairie Moon Casino Miami, OK 1991 47.5 54 120 - - 120 0.6%
Prairie Sun Casino Miami, OK 2013 46.7 56 252 - - 252 1.2%
The Stables Casino Miami, OK 1998 48.8 57 500 - - 500 2.4%
Lucky Turtle Casino Wyandotte, OK 2004 52.6 60 111 - - 111 0.5%
Wyandotte Nation Casino Wyandotte, OK 2007 52.4 61 850 6 - 886 4.2%
Bordertown Casino & Arena Wyandotte, OK 2015 55.3 63 500 - - 500 2.4%
Indigo Sky Casino Wyandotte, OK 2012 56.8 64 1,270 14 117 1,354 6.5%
Grand Lake Casino Grove, OK 1988 65.8 74 841 8 30 889 4.2%
7th Street Casino Kansas City, KS 2007 118.0 104 605 - - 605 2.9%
Isle of Capri Kansas City Kansas City, MO 2000 121.0 105 1,058 18 - 1,166 5.6%
Argosy Casino Riverside Kansas City, MO 1994 123.0 107 1,473 29 258 1,647 7.9%
Cherokee Casino - Will Rogers Downs Claremore, OK 2005 112.0 110 250 - - 250 1.2%
Harrah's North Kansas City Kansas City, MO 1992 125.0 113 1,520 75 392 1,970 9.4%
Ameristar Kansas City Kansas City, MO 1997 131.0 115 2,450 71 184 2,876 13.7%
Hard Rock Hotel and Casino Tulsa Catoosa, OK 2003 122.0 117 2,400 46 454 2,676 12.8%
Cherokee Nation Outpost Shop Catoosa, OK 1993 122.0 117 80 - - 80 0.4%
Total 20,966 100.0%
Camptown – GGR 2017 (1) 2018 (2) 2019
Midpoint Midpoint Midpoint
Immediate Local Gaming Market (30-min Drive Radius)
Kansas $4.6 $5.1 $5.4
Out-of-State $1.3 $1.4 $1.5
Total Immediate Local Gaming Market (30-min Drive Radius) $5.9 $6.6 $6.9
Local Gaming Market (30 to 60-min Drive Radius)
Kansas $5.7 $6.3 $6.7
Out-of-State $9.7 $10.8 $11.4
Total Local Gaming Market (30 to 60-min Drive Radius) $15.4 $17.2 $18.1
Regional Gaming Market (60 to 120-min Drive Radius)
Kansas $5.8 $6.5 $6.8
Out-of-State $10.3 $11.5 $12.1
Total Regional Gaming Market (60 to 120-min Drive Radius) $16.0 $17.9 $18.9
Total GGR
Kansas $16.0 $17.9 $18.9
Out-of-State $21.3 $23.8 $25.0
Total Camptown Casino GGR $37.3 $41.7 $43.9
(1) 2017 GGR assumes 85.0% of stabilized operations.
(2) 2018 GGR assumes 95.0% of stabilized operations.
Camptown – GGR by State
• Kansas $18.9 million 43.0% • Missouri $22.1 million 50.5% • Oklahoma $1.0 million 2.3% • Arkansas $1.9 million 4.2%
Total Revenue - 2019 Kansas Missouri Oklahoma Arkansas Total
Immediate Local Gaming Market (30-min Drive Radius) $5.4 $1.5 - - $6.9
Local Gaming Market (30 to 60-min Drive Radius) $6.7 $11.1 $0.3 - $18.1
Regional Gaming Market (60 to 120-min Drive Radius) $6.8 $9.5 $0.7 $1.9 $18.9
Total Camptown Casino GGR $18.9 $22.1 $1.0 $1.9 $43.9
% of Revenue Kansas Missouri Oklahoma Arkansas Total
Immediate Local Gaming Market (30-min Drive Radius) 12.3% 3.5% - - 15.8%
Local Gaming Market (30 to 60-min Drive Radius) 15.2% 25.4% 0.6% - 41.2%
Regional Gaming Market (60 to 120-min Drive Radius) 15.5% 21.6% 1.7% 4.2% 43.0%
Total Camptown Casino GGR 43.0% 50.5% 2.3% 4.2% 100.0%
Camptown – Visitation by State
Total Visitors - 2019 Kansas Missouri Oklahoma Arkansas Total
Immediate Local Gaming Market (30-min Drive Radius) 74,974 21,142 - - 96,116
Local Gaming Market (30 to 60-min Drive Radius) 92,432 154,505 3,585 - 250,521
Regional Gaming Market (60 to 120-min Drive Radius) 94,230 131,403 10,362 25,861 261,855
Total Camptown Casino Visitors 261,636 307,050 13,947 25,861 608,493
% of Visitors Kansas Missouri Oklahoma Arkansas Total
Immediate Local Gaming Market (30-min Drive Radius) 12.3% 3.5% - - 15.8%
Local Gaming Market (30 to 60-min Drive Radius) 15.2% 25.4% 0.6% - 41.2%
Regional Gaming Market (60 to 120-min Drive Radius) 15.5% 21.6% 1.7% 4.2% 43.0%
Total Camptown Casino Visitors 43.0% 50.5% 2.3% 4.2% 100.0%
Average Spend per Visit $72.10
We calculate GGR on a county by county basis, which allows us to calculate the visitation by county by dividing county GGR by a spend per visit figure determined by a thorough analysis of comparable gaming markets • Kansas 261,636 • Missouri 307,050 • Oklahoma 13,947 • Arkansas 25,861
Camptown - Tax Revenue
• Applying the relevant tax structure to Camptown’s revenue projection we calculate total tax revenue of $11.8m, with $10.5m in state taxes and $1.3m in local taxes in 2019
Camptown Casino
2017 2018 2019
GGR $37.3 $41.7 $43.9
State Share @ 22.0% $8.2 $9.2 $9.7
Problem Gambling Share @ 2.0% $0.7 $0.8 $0.9
Total State Taxes $9.0 $10.0 $10.5
Local Share @ 3.0% $1.1 $1.3 $1.3
Total Local Taxes $1.1 $1.3 $1.3
Total Taxes Paid $10.1 $11.3 $11.8
Castle Rock
2015
2015 2015 Adult Gaming 2015
Castle Rock Population Adult Population Population Per capita income
0-30-minute drive 234,066 170,226 54,484 $19,685
30-60-minute drive 194,662 144,570 46,273 $19,307
60-120-minute drive 2,350,927 1,720,119 550,561 $21,152
Total 2,779,655 2,034,915 651,318 $20,899
Project Scope • 1,400 Slots • 51 Tables • 200 Hotel Rooms
The map on the right shows 3 separate drive time zones surrounding the proposed site of Castle Rock, and the table below shows the relevant information in each zone used for the theoretical market estimation
Castle Rock – Competitive Landscape
• Apply proprietary capture rates based on competitive dynamics, competitive set, proximity to the closest casino, asset quality, and other forms of gaming to define what percentage of the theoretical market each segment (immediate local, local and regional) will capture
Distance to Distance to Total Gaming Fair Share
Property Location Opening Date Castle Rock (miles) Castle Rock (minutes) Slots Tables Hotel Rooms Positions by Position
Castle Rock Galena, KS - - 1,400 51 200 1,706 7.8%
Downstream Casino Resort Quapaw, OK 2008 1.8 4 2,000 50 374 2,300 10.5%
Prairie Moon Casino Miami, OK 1991 18.5 19 120 - - 120 0.5%
Bordertown Casino & Arena Wyandotte, OK 2015 18.1 22 500 - - 500 2.3%
Quapaw Casino Miami, OK 2000 17.8 22 500 4 - 524 2.4%
Buffalo Run Casino Miami, OK 2004 20.2 22 800 15 100 890 4.1%
The Stables Casino Miami, OK 1998 19.5 22 500 - - 500 2.3%
High Winds Casino Miami, OK 2006 18.7 23 500 - - 500 2.3%
Indigo Sky Casino Wyandotte, OK 2012 19.2 24 1,270 14 117 1,354 6.2%
Prairie Sun Casino Miami, OK 2013 20.3 26 252 - - 252 1.1%
Lucky Turtle Casino Wyandotte, OK 2004 26.8 30 111 - - 111 0.5%
Wyandotte Nation Casino Wyandotte, OK 2007 26.0 32 850 6 - 886 4.0%
Grand Lake Casino Grove, OK 1988 34.9 40 841 8 - 889 4.0%
Cherokee Casino - Will Rogers Downs Claremore, OK 2005 82.0 72 250 - - 250 1.1%
Hard Rock Hotel and Casino Tulsa Catoosa, OK 2003 91.6 77 2,400 46 454 2,676 12.2%
West Siloam Springs Smoke Shop Watts, OK 2009 70.3 87 150 - - 150 0.7%
Cherokee Casino & Hotel West Siloam Springs West Siloam Springs, OK 2000 70.3 87 1,300 28 147 1,468 6.7%
Cherokee Nation Outpost Shop Catoosa, OK 1993 91.6 87 80 - - 80 0.4%
Osage Casino - Tulsa Tulsa, OK 2001 107.0 90 250 - - 250 1.1%
River Spirit Casino Tulsa, OK 2009 109.0 95 2,600 25 - 2,750 12.5%
Cherokee Casino - Ramona Ramona, OK 2010 101.0 98 500 - - 500 2.3%
Osage Casino - Sand Springs Sand Springs, Ok 2004 118.0 101 460 5 - 490 2.2%
Osage Casino - Skiatook Skiatook, OK 2011 106.0 104 315 - 28 315 1.4%
Cherokee Casino - Fort Gibson Fort Gibson, OK 2004 112.0 104 500 - - 500 2.3%
Osage Casino - Bartlesville Bartlesville, OK 2007 100.0 105 450 8 - 498 2.3%
Duck Creek Casino Beggs, OK 2003 126.0 107 299 - - 299 1.4%
Muskogee Travel Plaza Muskogee, OK 2007 111.0 108 129 - - 129 0.6%
Creek Nation Casino Muskogee Muskogee, OK 2006 111.0 108 400 16 - 496 2.3%
Cherokee Casino - Tahlequah Tahlequah, OK 2004 115.0 117 400 - - 400 1.8%
Osage Casino - Pawhuska Pawhuska, OK 2005 117.0 117 170 - - 170 0.8%
Total 21,953 100.0%
Castle Rock – GGR 2017 (1) 2018 (2) 2019
Midpoint Midpoint Midpoint
Immediate Local Gaming Market (30-min Drive Radius)
Kansas $2.5 $2.8 $2.9
Out-of-State $10.0 $11.2 $11.8
Total Immediate Local Gaming Market (30-min Drive Radius) $12.5 $13.9 $14.7
Local Gaming Market (30 to 60-min Drive Radius)
Kansas $6.4 $7.1 $7.5
Out-of-State $3.7 $4.2 $4.4
Total Local Gaming Market (30 to 60-min Drive Radius) $10.1 $11.3 $11.9
Regional Gaming Market (60 to 120-min Drive Radius)
Kansas $3.7 $4.2 $4.4
Out-of-State $14.3 $16.0 $16.9
Total Regional Gaming Market (60 to 120-min Drive Radius) $18.0 $20.2 $21.2
Total GGR
Kansas $12.6 $14.1 $14.8
Out-of-State $28.1 $31.4 $33.0
Total Castle Rock GGR $40.7 $45.4 $47.8
(1) 2017 GGR assumes 85.0% of stabilized operations.
(2) 2018 GGR assumes 95.0% of stabilized operations.
Castle Rock – GGR by State
• Kansas $14.8 million 30.9% • Missouri $22.0 million 45.9% • Oklahoma $5.5 million 11.4% • Arkansas $5.6 million 11.7%
Total Revenue - 2019 Kansas Missouri Oklahoma Arkansas Total
Immediate Local Gaming Market (30-min Drive Radius) $2.9 $11.0 $0.8 - $14.7
Local Gaming Market (30 to 60-min Drive Radius) $7.5 $3.7 $0.7 - $11.9
Regional Gaming Market (60 to 120-min Drive Radius) $4.4 $7.3 $4.0 $5.6 $21.2
Total Castle Rock GGR $14.8 $22.0 $5.5 $5.6 $47.8
% of Revenue Kansas Missouri Oklahoma Arkansas Total
Immediate Local Gaming Market (30-min Drive Radius) 6.1% 23.0% 1.6% - 30.7%
Local Gaming Market (30 to 60-min Drive Radius) 15.7% 7.7% 1.5% - 24.9%
Regional Gaming Market (60 to 120-min Drive Radius) 9.1% 15.2% 8.3% 11.7% 44.4%
Total Castle Rock GGR 30.9% 45.9% 11.4% 11.7% 100.0%
Castle Rock – Visitation by State
We calculate GGR on a county by county basis, which allows us to calculate the visitation by county by dividing county GGR by a spend per visit figure determined by a thorough analysis of comparable gaming markets • Kansas 212,615 • Missouri 315,768 • Oklahoma 78,636 • Arkansas 80,482
Total Visitors - 2019 Kansas Missouri Oklahoma Arkansas Total
Immediate Local Gaming Market (30-min Drive Radius) 41,645 158,145 11,147 - 210,937
Local Gaming Market (30 to 60-min Drive Radius) 108,121 52,866 10,371 - 171,357
Regional Gaming Market (60 to 120-min Drive Radius) 62,849 104,757 57,119 80,482 305,207
Total Castle Rock Visitors 212,615 315,768 78,636 80,482 687,501
% of Visitors Kansas Missouri Oklahoma Arkansas Total
Immediate Local Gaming Market (30-min Drive Radius) 6.1% 23.0% - - 30.7%
Local Gaming Market (30 to 60-min Drive Radius) 15.7% 7.7% 1.5% - 24.9%
Regional Gaming Market (60 to 120-min Drive Radius) 9.1% 15.2% 8.3% 11.7% 44.4%
Total Castle Rock Visitors 30.9% 45.9% 11.4% 11.7% 100.0%
Average Spend per Visit $69.57
Castle Rock - Tax Revenue
• Applying the relevant tax structure to Castle Rock’s revenue projection we calculate total tax revenue of $12.9m, with $11.5m in state taxes and $1.4m in local taxes in 2019
Castle Rock
2017 2018 2019
GGR $40.7 $45.4 $47.8
State Share @ 22.0% $8.9 $10.0 $10.5
Problem Gambling Share @ 2.0% $0.8 $0.9 $1.0
Total State Taxes $9.8 $10.9 $11.5
Local Share @ 3.0% $1.2 $1.4 $1.4
Total Local Taxes $1.2 $1.4 $1.4
Total Taxes Paid $11.0 $12.3 $12.9
Kansas Crossing
2015
2015 2015 Adult Gaming 2015
Kansas Crossing Population Adult Population Population Per capita income
0-30-minute drive 181,302 131,989 42,246 $19,499
30-60-minute drive 162,576 119,126 38,129 $19,511
60-120-minute drive 2,690,941 1,959,355 627,134 $22,486
Total 3,034,819 2,210,470 707,509 $22,148
Project Scope • 625 Slots • 16 Tables • 120 Hotel Rooms
The map on the right shows 3 separate drive time zones surrounding the proposed site of Kansas Crossing, and the table below shows the relevant information in each zone used for the theoretical market estimation
Kansas Crossing – Competitive Landscape
• Apply proprietary capture rates based on competitive dynamics, competitive set, proximity to the closest casino, asset quality, and other forms of gaming to define what percentage of the theoretical market each segment (immediate local, local and regional) will capture
Distance to Distance to Total Gaming Fair Share
Property Location Opening Date KS Crossing (miles) KS Crossing (minutes) Slots Tables Hotel Rooms Positions by Position
Kansas Crossing Pittsburg, KS -
- 625 16 120 721 3.8%
Downstream Casino Resort Quapaw, OK 2008 29.6 31 2,000 50 374 2,300 12.2%
Quapaw Casino Miami, OK 2000 34.2 37 500 4 - 524 2.8%
High Winds Casino Miami, OK 2006 35.1 39 500 - - 500 2.7%
Buffalo Run Casino Miami, OK 2004 36.3 41 800 15 100 890 4.7%
Prairie Moon Casino Miami, OK 1991 37.5 42 120 - - 120 0.6%
Prairie Sun Casino Miami, OK 2013 36.7 44 252 - - 252 1.3%
The Stables Casino Miami, OK 1998 38.8 45 500 - - 500 2.7%
Wyandotte Nation Casino Wyandotte, OK 2007 42.4 49 850 6 - 886 4.7%
Lucky Turtle Casino Wyandotte, OK 2004 42.6 50 111 - - 111 0.6%
Bordertown Casino & Arena Wyandotte, OK 2015 45.4 51 500 - - 500 2.7%
Indigo Sky Casino Wyandotte, OK 2012 46.8 52 1,270 14 117 1,354 7.2%
Grand Lake Casino Grove, OK 1988 55.9 62 841 8 30 889 4.7%
Cherokee Casino - Will Rogers Downs Claremore, OK 2005 102.0 98 250 - - 250 1.3%
Hard Rock Hotel and Casino Tulsa Catoosa, OK 2003 112.0 105 2,400 46 454 2,676 14.2%
Cherokee Nation Outpost Shop Catoosa, OK 1993 112.0 105 80 - - 80 0.4%
West Siloam Springs Smoke Shop Watts, OK 2009 104.0 114 150 - - 150 0.8%
Cherokee Casino & Hotel West Siloam Springs West Siloam Springs, OK 2000 104.0 114 1,300 28 147 1,468 7.8%
7th Street Casino Kansas City, KS 2007 128.0 115 605 - - 605 3.2%
Isle of Capri Kansas City Kansas City, MO 2000 131.0 117 1,058 18 - 1,166 6.2%
Osage Casino - Bartlesville Bartlesville, OK 2007 113.0 118 450 8 - 498 2.6%
Cherokee Casino - Ramona Ramona, OK 2010 118.0 118 500 - - 500 2.7%
Argosy Casino Riverside Kansas City, MO 1994 132.0 119 1,473 29 258 1,647 8.7%
Osage Casino - Tulsa Tulsa, OK 2001 127.0 119 250 - - 250 1.3%
Total 18,837 100.0%
Kansas Crossing – GGR 2017 (1) 2018 (2) 2019
Midpoint Midpoint Midpoint
Immediate Local Gaming Market (30-min Drive Radius)
Kansas $7.1 $7.9 $8.3
Out-of-State $7.8 $8.7 $9.2
Total Immediate Local Gaming Market (30-min Drive Radius) $14.9 $16.6 $17.5
Local Gaming Market (30 to 60-min Drive Radius)
Kansas $3.0 $3.4 $3.6
Out-of-State $5.9 $6.6 $7.0
Total Local Gaming Market (30 to 60-min Drive Radius) $9.0 $10.0 $10.5
Regional Gaming Market (60 to 120-min Drive Radius)
Kansas $3.4 $3.9 $4.1
Out-of-State $5.9 $6.6 $6.9
Total Regional Gaming Market (60 to 120-min Drive Radius) $9.3 $10.4 $11.0
Total GGR
Kansas $13.5 $15.1 $15.9
Out-of-State $19.6 $21.9 $23.1
Total Kansas Crossing GGR $33.2 $37.1 $39.0
(1) 2017 GGR assumes 85.0% of stabilized operations.
(2) 2018 GGR assumes 95.0% of stabilized operations.
Kansas Crossing – GGR by State
• Kansas $15.9 million 40.8% • Missouri $19.6 million 50.3% • Oklahoma $1.6 million 4.0% • Arkansas $1.9 million 4.9%
Total Revenue - 2019 Kansas Missouri Oklahoma Arkansas Total
Immediate Local Gaming Market (30-min Drive Radius) $8.3 $9.2 - - $17.5
Local Gaming Market (30 to 60-min Drive Radius) $3.6 $6.7 $0.3 - $10.5
Regional Gaming Market (60 to 120-min Drive Radius) $4.1 $3.7 $1.3 $1.9 $11.0
Total Kansas Crossing GGR $15.9 $19.6 $1.6 $1.9 $39.0
% of Revenue Kansas Missouri Oklahoma Arkansas Total
Immediate Local Gaming Market (30-min Drive Radius) 21.3% 23.5% - - 44.8%
Local Gaming Market (30 to 60-min Drive Radius) 9.1% 17.2% 0.7% - 27.0%
Regional Gaming Market (60 to 120-min Drive Radius) 10.4% 9.5% 3.3% 4.9% 28.2%
Total Kansas Crossing GGR 40.8% 50.3% 4.0% 4.9% 100.0%
Kansas Crossing – Visitation by State
We calculate GGR on a county by county basis, which allows us to calculate the visitation by county by dividing county GGR by a spend per visit figure determined by a thorough analysis of comparable gaming markets • Kansas 220,612 • Missouri 272,006 • Oklahoma 21,588 • Arkansas 26,548
Total Visitors - 2019 Kansas Missouri Oklahoma Arkansas Total
Immediate Local Gaming Market (30-min Drive Radius) 115,081 127,201 - - 242,283
Local Gaming Market (30 to 60-min Drive Radius) 49,319 93,197 3,583 - 146,099
Regional Gaming Market (60 to 120-min Drive Radius) 56,211 51,607 18,005 26,548 152,371
Total Kansas Crossing Visitors 220,612 272,006 21,588 26,548 540,753
% of Visitors Kansas Missouri Oklahoma Arkansas Total
Immediate Local Gaming Market (30-min Drive Radius) 21.3% 23.5% - - 44.8%
Local Gaming Market (30 to 60-min Drive Radius) 9.1% 17.2% 0.7% - 27.0%
Regional Gaming Market (60 to 120-min Drive Radius) 10.4% 9.5% 3.3% 4.9% 28.2%
Total Kansas Crossing Visitors 40.8% 50.3% 4.0% 4.9% 100.0%
Average Spend per Visit $72.15
Kansas Crossing - Tax Revenue
• Applying the relevant tax structure to Kansas Crossing’s revenue projection we calculate total tax revenue of $10.5m, with $9.4m in state taxes and $1.2m in local taxes in 2019
Kansas Crossing
2017 2018 2019
GGR $33.2 $37.1 $39.0
State Share @ 22.0% $7.3 $8.2 $8.6
Problem Gambling Share @ 2.0% $0.7 $0.7 $0.8
Total State Taxes $8.0 $8.9 $9.4
Local Share @ 3.0% $1.0 $1.1 $1.2
Total Local Taxes $1.0 $1.1 $1.2
Total Taxes Paid $9.0 $10.0 $10.5
UGA Camptown Comparison
Camptown (1)
Union
Gaming Applicant
Slot Revenue $37.3 $41.9
Table Revenue 6.6 6.7
Gross Gaming Revenue $43.9 $48.6
F&B Revenue $4.4 $7.1
Hotel Revenue 1.8 1
Other Revenue (Entertainment, Retail, ATM Fees, etc) 0.9 0.2
Gross Revenues $50.9 $57.3
Less: Promotional Allowances (4.4) (4.7)
Net Revenue $46.5 $52.7
EBITDA $9.3 $15.1
EBITDA Margin 20.0% 28.8%
(1) Camptown did not provide projections for year three of operations (2019), therefore, we assume growth of 1.0%
for both 2018 and 2019 to arrive out their 2019 projections.
UGA Castle Rock Comparison
Castle Rock
Union
Gaming Applicant
Slot Revenue $40.7 $73.4
Table Revenue 7.2 18.2
Gross Gaming Revenue $47.8 $91.7
F&B Revenue $5.7 $8.7
Hotel Revenue 4.8 8
Other Revenue (Entertainment, Retail, ATM Fees, etc) 1.9 4.8
Gross Revenues $60.3 $112.7
Less: Promotional Allowances (4.8) (0.8)
Net Revenue $55.5 $112.0
EBITDA (1) $8.0 $29.1
EBITDA Margin 14.4% 26.0%
(1) EBITDA is after management fee but before principal and interest payments.
UGA Kansas Crossing Comparison
Kansas Crossing
Union
Gaming Applicant
Slot Revenue $33.2 $38.5
Table Revenue 5.9 8.7
Gross Gaming Revenue $39.0 $47.2
F&B Revenue $2.0 $2.3
Hotel Revenue 0.0 -
Other Revenue (Entertainment, Retail, ATM Fees, etc) 0.4 0.5
Gross Revenues $41.4 $50.1
Less: Promotional Allowances (3.9) (4.5)
Net Revenue $37.5 $45.5
EBITDA (1) $7.3 $10.2
EBITDA Margin 19.6% 22.3%
(1) EBITDA is after management fee but before principal and interest payments and preferred return payments.
UGA Applicant Comparisons
Camptown Castle Kansas
Casino (1) Rock Crossing
Union Gaming Projections - 2019
Slot Revenue $37.3 $40.7 $33.2
Table Revenue 6.6 7.2 5.9
Gross Gaming Revenue $43.9 $47.8 $39.0
F&B Revenue $4.4 $5.7 $2.0
Hotel Revenue 1.8 4.8 -
Other Revenue (Entertainment, Retail, ATM Fees, etc) 0.9 1.9 0.4
Gross Revenues $50.9 $60.3 $41.4
Less: Promotional Allowances (4.4) (4.8) (3.9)
Net Revenue $46.5 $55.5 $37.5
EBITDA $9.3 $8.0 $7.3
EBITDA Margin 20.0% 14.4% 19.6%
(1) Camptown did not provide projections for year three of operations (2019), therefore, we assume growth of 1.0%
for both 2018 and 2019 to arrive out their 2019 projections.
www.uniongaminggroup.com