united states department of agriculture national agricultural … · 2018. 5. 21. · 12:00 p.m....

12:00 P.M.

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Production - Annual

Grain Stocks

Rice Stocks

Cotton Ginnings

Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings

January Crop ProductionExecutive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

January 12, 2017

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

Field Crops Stocks Fruit & Nuts Specialty Crops

Corn Corn Citrus Potatoes

Soybeans Soybeans Sweet Potatoes

All Cotton Sorghum Peppermint Oil

Sorghum Rice Spearmint Oil

Rice Hay Hops

Hay & Forage All Wheat

Peanuts Barley

Proso Millet Oats

Minor Oilseeds

Sugarcane

Sugarbeets

Tobacco

Pulse Crops

Winter Wheat

Contents

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

December Ag Survey Off-Farm Grain Stocks

Survey Type Farmer Reported Off-Farm Grain Stock Facilities

Collection MethodMail, Phone, Internet,

Personal Interview

Mail, Phone, Internet, Personal

Interview

Crops Included Field Crops

Corn, Soybeans, All Wheat,

Durum Wheat, Barley, Oats,

Sorghum, Pulse Crops

States All except HI All except AK, HI, and NV

Sample Size 82,887 8,527

Collection Period Nov 29 – Dec 21 Nov 29 – Dec 20

Survey Overview

Year Principal CropsChange From

Previous Year

Million Acres

2007 320.4 +4.7

2008 325.6 +5.2

2009 319.0 -6.6

2010 315.4 -3.6

2011 314.3 -1.1

2012 324.3 +10.0

2013 324.9 +0.6

2014 326.4 +1.5

2015 319.0 -7.4

2016 319.3 +0.3

Principal Crops Planted AcreageUnited States

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

319

306

290

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Million AcresPrincipal Crops

United States

Planted Harvested

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

2016 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit January Previous Previous

2017 Forecast Season

Corn

Planted Mil Ac 94.0 -0.5 +6.8

Harvested Mil Ac 86.7 -0.1 +7.4

Yield Bu/Ac 174.6 -0.4 +3.7

Production Bil Bu 15.1 -0.5 +11.4

Stocks Bil Bu 12.4 NA +10.2

174.6

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

150.0

160.0

170.0

180.0

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Bushels per AcreCorn for Grain Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)USDA-NASS

1-12-17

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

15.1

15.0

15.2

15.3

14.7

14.8

14.9

15.0

15.1

15.2

15.3

15.4

Billion BushelsNASS Estimate vs. Expectations

Corn Production

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations

AverageOf Expectations

HighOf Expectations

15.0

13.3

14.7

14.1 14.0

11.9

14.815.0

14.8

15.3

16.9

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17

Billion BushelsCorn Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

12.4

11.7

12.4

12.5

11.2

11.4

11.6

11.8

12.0

12.2

12.4

12.6

12.8


Corn Stocks

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations


HighOf Expectations

USDA-NASS

1-12-17


% Change % Change

From From



Soybeans



Yield Bu/Ac 52.1 -0.8 +8.5

Production Bil Bu 4.31 -1.2 +9.7

Stocks Bil Bu 2.90 NA +6.7

52.1

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Bushels per AcreSoybean Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

4.31

4.34

4.38

4.44

4.20

4.25

4.30

4.35

4.40

4.45


Soybean Production

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations


HighOf Expectations

3.13

3.54 3.573.47

3.25 3.26

3.53

4.07 4.024.12

4.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17

Billion BushelsSoybean Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

2.90

2.79

2.95

3.12

2.60

2.70

2.80

2.90

3.00

3.10

3.20


Soybean Stocks

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations


HighOf Expectations

USDA-NASS

1-12-17


% Change % Change

From From



All Cotton



Yield Lb/Ac 855 +4.1 +11.6

Production Mil Bls 17.0 +2.6 +31.6

Cottonseed

Production Mil Tons 5.42 +2.7 +34.0

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

855

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Pounds per AcreAll Cotton Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

USDA-NASS

1-12-17


% Change % Change

From From



Sorghum

Planted Mil Ac 6.69 -1.1 -20.9

Harvested Mil Ac 6.16 +2.0 -21.5

Yield Bu/Ac 77.9 +1.8 +2.5

Production Mil Bu 480 +3.9 -19.5

Stocks Mil Bu 311 NA -3.5

USDA-NASS

1-12-17


% Change % Change

From From



Rice



Yield Lbs/Ac 7,237 -3.4 -3.1

Production Mil Cwt 224 -4.5 +16.0

Stocks Mil Cwt 160 NA +10.5

236 239244

268262

211

235

220

249

235

263

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17

Million HundredweightRough Rice Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun Aug

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

USDA-NASS

1-12-17


% Change % Change

From From



All Hay

Harvested Mil Ac 53.5 -4.7 -1.8

Yield Tons/Ac 2.52 NC +2.0

Production Mil Tons 135 -4.8 +0.2

Stocks Mil Tons 95.8 NA +0.9

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

USDA-NASS

1-12-17


% Change % Change

From From



Production

All Other Hay Mil Tons 76.5 -2.8 +1.3

Alfalfa Hay Mil Tons 58.3 -7.2 -1.2

Proso Millet Mil Bu 12.6 NA -11.3

Peanuts Bil Lbs 5.68 -8.9 -5.3

USDA-NASS

1-12-17


% Change % Change

From From



Production

Canola Bil Lbs 3.08 +2.8 +6.8

Flaxseed Mil Bu 8.68 NA -14.0

Mustard Seed Mil Lbs 96.3 NA +257.5

Rapeseed Mil Lbs 19.3 NA *

Safflower Mil Lbs 220 NA +0.8

Sunflowers Bil Lbs 2.65 +8.0 -9.2

USDA-NASS

1-12-17


% Change % Change

From From



Production

Sugarcane Mil Tons 33.0 -2.1 +2.7

Sugarbeets Mil Tons 36.9 +0.7 +4.3

All Tobacco Mil Lbs 629 -5.3 -12.6

USDA-NASS

1-12-17


% Change % Change

From From



Production

A. Winter Peas Thou Cwt 477 +7.4 +83.5

Dry Peas Mil Cwt 27.7 +2.4 +51.7

Dry Beans Mil Cwt 28.7 +3.4 -4.5

Lentils Mil Cwt 12.7 +2.0 +140.4

Wrinkled Seed Thou Cwt 439 NA +14.3

USDA-NASS

1-12-17


% Change % Change

From From



Production

Potatoes Mil Cwt 441 +0.3 -0.1

Sweet Potatoes Mil Cwt 31.5 NA +1.7

Peppermint Oil Mil Lbs 5.80 NA -1.5

Spearmint Oil Mil Lbs 3.21 NA +9.5

Hops Mil Lbs 87.1 NA +10.5

USDA-NASS

1-12-17


% Change % Change

From From


2017 Estimate Year

Stocks

Wheat, All Bil Bu 2.07 NA +18.7

Barley Mil Bu 193 NA +6.7

Oats Mil Bu 75.5 NA -8.7

2.97

2.51

2.82

2.97

2.86 2.88

2.74

2.64

2.80

3.28

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17

Billion BushelsAll Wheat Stocks

United States

Supply Sep Dec Mar Jun

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

2.07

1.83

2.04

2.14

1.65

1.70

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.95

2.00

2.05

2.10

2.15

2.20


All Wheat Stocks

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations


HighOf Expectations

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

Winter Wheat Seedings

% Change % Change

From From



Wheat, Winter

Planted Mil Ac 32.4 NA -10.4

32.4

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Million AcresWinter Wheat Acres

United States

Planted Harvested

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

32.4

31.7

34.2

36.4

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

33.0

34.0

35.0

36.0

37.0

Million AcresNASS Estimate vs. Expectations

Winter Wheat Area Seeded

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations


HighOf Expectations

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

Objective Surveys

(Size and Drop)Fruit Maturity Row Count

Survey Type Field Observations Laboratory Tests Field Observations

Crops Included Oranges excl. Navels

Grapefruit

Late Tangerines

Oranges excl.

Navels

Non-Valencia

Oranges

Tangelos

Sample Size 1,642 groves 321 samples 61,275 rows

Collection Period December 12-23 December 27-28 December 27-28

Testing Period December 29-30

Survey OverviewFlorida Citrus

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

January 2017 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From



Production

Oranges Mil Tons 5.39 +1.4 -8.8

Grapefruit Thou Tons 758 +2.0 -5.6

Lemons Thou Tons 862 -5.5 -3.1

Tangerines &

MandarinsThou Tons 991 +0.1 +4.0

USDA-NASS

1-12-17

Release Date Report Title

January 23 Cotton Ginnings

January 27 Cattle on Feed

January 31

Agricultural Prices

Cattle

Sheep and Goats

February 1

CAIR: Cotton System

CAIR: Fats and Oils

CAIR: Flour Milling

CAIR: Grain Crushings

February 9 Crop Production

February 23County Estimates

Corn, Soybeans, Sorghum, Sunflower

Upcoming Reports

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

All Reports Available Atwww.nass.usda.gov

For Questions202-720-2127

800-727-9540

[email protected]

united states department of agriculture national agricultural … · 2018. 5. 21. · 12:00 p.m....

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