unpacking the results of the gujarat elections 2017
TRANSCRIPT
BackgroundUrban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of AccessConclusions
A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
Neelanjan Sircar
22 December 2017
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
BackgroundUrban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of AccessConclusions
The Lead UpFrom Caste to ClassElection Results
The Lead Up
BJP came to power in 1995 under Keshubhai Patel and hasbeen in power since then (22 years)
Extremely stable coalition – between 1995 and 2012, BJP wonbetween 115 to 127 out of 182 seats
The banner of Hindu identity created a cross-caste coalition
Hardik Patel – a political superstar
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
BackgroundUrban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of AccessConclusions
The Lead UpFrom Caste to ClassElection Results
From Caste to Class
Caste patronage vs. caste mobilization (for class)
The impossibility of balancing rural and urban prices
Proximate trigger: Dropping prices of cotton and groundnut
The human development problem
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
BackgroundUrban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of AccessConclusions
The Lead UpFrom Caste to ClassElection Results
Election Results for Gujarat 2012 and 2017
182 seats total
BJP won 115 seats in 2012 but only 99 in 2017
Vote shares – 2012: 48% 2017: 49%
Congress won 61 seats in 2012 but only 77 in 2017
Vote shares – 2012: 39% 2017: 41%
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
BackgroundUrban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of AccessConclusions
The Lead UpFrom Caste to ClassElection Results
BJP Strike Rates
2012
63
2017
54
010
2030
4050
6070
BJP
Str
ike
Rat
e
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
BackgroundUrban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of AccessConclusions
The Lead UpFrom Caste to ClassElection Results
Gujarat 2012 Election
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
BackgroundUrban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of AccessConclusions
The Lead UpFrom Caste to ClassElection Results
Gujarat 2017 Election
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
BackgroundUrban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of AccessConclusions
Big CitiesAgricultural Share
Big Cities
2012
90
2017
90
2012
55
2017
44
010
3050
7090
BJP
Str
ike
Rat
e
Big City Others
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
BackgroundUrban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of AccessConclusions
Big CitiesAgricultural Share
Increasing Polarization Visible
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Proportion Urban in AC
Est
imat
ed B
JP S
trik
e R
ate
2012
2017
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
BackgroundUrban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of AccessConclusions
Big CitiesAgricultural Share
Increasing Polarization Visible
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Proportion Urban in AC
Est
imat
ed B
JP S
trik
e R
ate
2012
2017
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
BackgroundUrban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of AccessConclusions
Big CitiesAgricultural Share
Agricultural Share
2012
80
2017
73
2012
49
2017
30
010
3050
7090
BJP
Str
ike
Rat
e
Ag. % < 50 Ag. % > 65
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
BackgroundUrban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of AccessConclusions
IdentityAmenitiesCharacterizing Economic Inequality
Challenges for Policy and Parties
The Impossibility of Urban and Rural Prices (w/o humandevelopment)
Is this an anomaly for Congress? How does Congress HardikPatels inside the party?
Next year could be tricky for BJP
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017