URBAN DEVELOPMENTCLASS 1FRIDAY, MARCH 3, 2006

IntroductionSession one

The Millenial ChallengeSession two

Trends and Outcomes

… for the first time in history, planning is confronted with the danger of unpredictable risks

and global effects …… planning must become ‘reflexive’:

it must reflect all possible impacts in a most circumspect manner …

Risk Society-Ulrich Beck

The Millennial Challenge

Two great milestone follow one another: two or three years after the millennium, for the first time in the history of humankind,

a majority of the world’s six billion people will live in cities (UNCHS, 1996b as cited by Hall & Pfeiffer)

The Millenial Challenge

Urban TransformationsAgriculture Society Industrial SocietyIndustrialization (19th century)

Glasgow & London in 1870s (source: wikipedia.com)

Here, without distinction of age or sex, careless of all decency, they are crowded in small and wretched apartments; the same bed receiving a succession of tenants until too offensive for

their unfastidious senses.

(1832, James Phillips Kay, an Edinburgh doctor)

Garden City and the Three Magnets Theory by Ebenezer Howard

The Millenial Challenge

Urban TransformationsFordism (post WW2) Agriculture Society Industrial Society (Manufacturing)

Along with this period a vast amount of suburbanization process was taking places. Rapid demand to house the people created social houses at the suburbs of Northern American and Western European cities.

No longer after, homogeneous low-density, car dependants suburbs were (and still are) created, stretching out for ‘liveable’ settlements.

Urban TransformationsDe-industrialization (1980s) Industrial Society Service Society

Deindustrialization is the process by which a country or region moves from a manufacturing-based economy to a service economy, and is marked by an increase in structural unemployment.

The Millenial Challenge

Brownfield (Urban Wasteland)Fisher Body 21 was the birthplace for the bodies of countless Cadillacs (Detroit)

Postindustrial Bilbao: The Reinvention of a New City

1 Tokyo Japan 34,200,000 incl. Yokohama, Kawasaki, Saitama

2 Mexico City Mexico 22,800,000 incl. Nezahualcóyotl, Ecatepec, Naucalpan

3 SeoulSouth Korea 22,300,000 incl. Bucheon, Goyang, Incheon, Seongnam, Suweon

4 New York USA 21,900,000 incl. Newark, Paterson

5 Sao Paulo Brazil 20,200,000 incl. Guarulhos

6 Bombay India 19,850,000 incl. Kalyan, Thane, Ulhasnagar

7 Delhi India 19,700,000 incl. Faridabad, Ghaziabad

8 Shanghai China 18,150,000  

9 Los Angeles USA 18,000,000 incl. Riverside, Anaheim

10 Osaka Japan 16,800,000 incl. Kobe, Kyoto

11 Jakarta Indonesia 16,550,000 incl. Bekasi, Bogor, Depok, Tangerang

12 Calcutta India 15,650,000 incl. Haora

13 Cairo Egypt 15,600,000 incl. Al-Jizah, Shubra al-Khaymah

14 Manila Philippines 14,950,000 incl. Kalookan, Quezon City

15 Karachi Pakistan 14,300,000  

16 Moscow Russia 13,750,000  

17 Buenos Aires Argentina 13,450,000 incl. San Justo, La Plata

18 Dacca Bangladesh 13,250,000  

19 Rio de Janeiro Brazil 12,150,000 incl. Nova Iguaçu, São Gonçalo

20 Beijing China 12,100,000  

source: http://www.citypopulation.de/World.html

Principal Urban Agglomerations of the World (as 28 Jan 2006)

The Millenial Challenge

Shanghai, China

Urban TransformationsGlobalization (Outsourcing-Footloose economy)

Outsourcing jobs

“Tesco, the UK's leading supermarket chain, has said it is to move 420 jobs to India from the UK. “

(BBC, 2004)

It took the United States and Western Europe 200 years to go through the Industrial Revolution. Nations such as South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan took about 25 years to become industrial

nations. The Chinese city of Shenzhen? Try six months.

That’s how long it takes for a non-literate farm worker to migrate to the city and start working on some of the most sophisticated machinery in the world.

Twenty years ago, Shenzhen was all rice paddies and salt ponds—with a population of 20,000, at best. Today, Shenzhen has a multimillion population churning out products at breakneck speed.

Globalization & TechnologyTime and Space Compression (David Harvey)

New Geography of Capital (Saskia Sassen)

Informational Society (Manuel Castells)

Shrinking Urban Area?

by 2015…

358 ‘million cities’ ; no less than 153 in Asia

27 ‘mega cities’; 18 will be in Asia(UN Prediction-UNCHS 1996)

Urban Explosion

The Millenial Challenge

Nanjing Road, Shanghai

Source: National Geographic (photo by: Stuart Franklin)

The destiny of migrants is usually not to go back .They do not see the journey to the city as readily reversible.

Going to the city is seen as a success by the family, and the move as a kind of commitment. They feel compelled to like the place where they must now make

their life, and to show they are successful.(Jeremy Seabrook about women garment workers in Dhaka)

Urban Poor

The Millenial Challenge

“more than half of the world’s poor are living in urban areas. Approx. 90% of poor households in Latin America, 40% in Africa and

45% in Asia will be in urban areas by the year 2000 (UNDP, 1995)

Development DisparitiesDevelopment Disparities

Logistical Problems

Tanjung Priok, Jakarta

^ Muara Rapak

Balikpapan

MarginalityMarginality

Fisherman village-

Cambaya, Makassar>>

“Humanity has not been down this road before; there are no precedents, no guideposts”

(Hall & Pfeiffer)

Urban EssentialsSustainable Urban Development

Sustainable Urban Economy & Society :-Economic growth-Income distribution (social disparities)-Democratic participation -Empowerment (Gender & underage labour force)

The Millenial Challenge

Sustainable Urban Shelter & Access:-Adequate Housing Policy -Infrastructure provision-Resource-conserving mobility

Sustainable Urban Environment & Life:-Stable ecosystem-Liveable City -Poverty vs good environment-Global policy (Clean Development Mechanism/CDM)

Sustainable Urban Democracy:-Community Participation in Planning and Implementation-Decentralization and Local Autonomy

Trends and Outcomes:The Urban World of 2025

The future of mankind depends on the quality of life in our citiesAll that is culture has come out of cities.

Cities have the potential to civilize and brutalize their citizens(Sir Richard Rogers)

Trends & Outcomes

Basic Driving Forces (Hall & Pfeiffer)

Demographic: Explosion and Implosion

Economic: Global – Local interface

Social: Economic change and social evolution

Environmental: Challenges to Urban Environment

Governance & Political Will

(Policy)

Demographic: Explosion and Implosion

Household Transformation

Housing Provision

WorkforcesSkill laborCost & tax burdenPension policy

Trends & Outcomes

Most of today’s developing countries still have a long way to go before they reach the proportions seen in European countries, but they may reach these proportions more quickly because their demographic transition has been quicker. (UNFPA)

Sweden 84 years

Singapore 18 years, Republic of Korea 20 years, Japan 20 years, China 30 years

Economic: Global – Local interface

[De]industrialization Footloose Economy (New Economy Geography)

Cities everywhere are highly and increasingly tied into a system of global competition—even though everywhere, most of their people work for local markets.

In fact urban markets are of two kinds: those connected with outside markets, exchanging tradable goods, and those providing local goods.

Formal vs Informal Economy capital & knowledge intensive vs labour intensive (added value orientation)

Culture & Creative Industries creation of Creative Class (Richard Florida)

Trends & Outcomes

Social: Economic change and social evolution

Trying to put social change into a framework of sociological or statistical analysis is like biological analysis, in which people are dissected and described in terms of bones and skin or organs without regard for the fact that hey are living human beings. The key, in all analysis of social change, must be first to bring out the general trends and forces, but then to demonstrate their effects in individual cities with their own history, economy, cultures and traditions. (Hall & Pfeiffer)

Rapid Growth and Rapid Decline

Earnings and Income Inequality

Occupational Change

Public Policies and Social Changes

Urban Poverty

Trends & Outcomes

UNEMPLOYMENT WOES 9.2% unemployment rate for people of French origin 14% unemployment for people of foreign origin (adjusted for education) 5% overall unemployment for university graduates 26.5% unemployment for "North African" university graduates Source: Insee (bbc.com)

15 days social unrest in suburbs of Paris

"The Kyoto Protocol is an agreement under which industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2% compared to the year 1990 (but note that, compared to the emissions levels that would be expected by 2010 without the Protocol, this target represents a 29% cut)..."

Environmental: Challenges to Urban Environment

Clean Development Mechanism (Kyoto Protocol, Dec 1997)

Trends & Outcomes

No Cities is Well Prepared for a Sustainable Future (Hall & Pfeiffer)

Managing Urbanity:

Cities as Problems and Opportunities for Environment

Choices of Investment

Global Concern

Urban Growth and Change (Hall & Pfeiffer)

Cities in Competition: a new concept of location and taxonomy of cities (Global Cities and the rest)Global significance and local demands Global winners and losers; international real-estate market sourcing

Trends & Outcomes

Changes of Urban System: ..of developed world

Deconcentration & ReconcentrationOld and New Downtowns (Edge Cities)Contribution of Transportation Development

...of developing worldExplosive Growth (Extended Urban Regions): Large Urban ProjectsIncreasing Informal Sector activities (informalized urbanization)Neglected problems of smaller cities (service centers, i.e. Purwakarta, Cianjur, Sumedang)

Welcome to Urban Development Issues

Trends & Outcomes