urbanizing china - dusp.mit.edu€¦ · beijing smog real estate development big data spatial...
TRANSCRIPT
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Urbanizing ChinaA reflective dialogue
11.S945, MW9:30-11:00 9-450B, Professor: Jinhua Zhao, TA: Liyan Xu
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Chongqing, one of the fastest-growing and biggest cities on earth, with a population of 29 million. The old buildings under the high-rises are destined for demolition in the near future.
Justin Jin for The New York Times
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Visitors from the countryside amid a giant project under construction in Chongqing. In southwestern China, away from the coast, it is the engine of China’s inland economic development.
Justin Jin for The New York Times
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Minxin Jiayuan is a flagship low-income housing project in Chongqing. Vast sums of money will be needed to pay for schooling, health care and retirement programs for the now landless farmers.
Justin Jin for The New York Times
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Li Rui, 60, scavenged his former village for building materials in Liaocheng. Mr. Li was a farmer until three years ago, when the local government razed his village for an urban development zone.
Justin Jin for The New York Times
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A rural migrant in a garment factory on the outskirts of Chongqing. Skeptics say the government’s headlong rush to urbanize is driven by a vision of modernity that has failed elsewhere.
Justin Jin for The New York Times
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Why do we care about China?
Discussion 1
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China vs. US
Source: The Economist Dec 27th, 2011
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China vs. USMeasured by 21 different indicators:manufacturing output, exports and fixed investment.
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http://afe.easia.columbia.edu/china/geog/maps.htm
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http://afe.easia.columbia.edu/china/geog/maps.htm
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http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/NPP/news/earth-at-night.html#.UicfGGSgm3U
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http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/NPP/news/earth-at-night.html#.UicfGGSgm3U
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North America
SouthAmerica
Africa
Asia
China
India
Europe
Oceania
Former Soviet Union
Middle East
GHG Emissions from Transport 2000-2050(Million ton CO2)
= CO2-Emissions 2000
1,810
+ 580
1,230
1,996
+ 1,237
3,233
348
+ 942
1,290579
159+ 420
505+ 290215
138489
744+ 606
+ 167656
360
+ 990
1,350252
+ 1,278
1,530
562
177+ 385
= additional CO2-Emissions by 2050
+129%
Source: 2010 ProgTrans AG
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North America
SouthAmerica
Africa
Asia
China
India
Europe
Oceania
Former Soviet Union
Middle East
Per Capita GHG Emissions from Transport 2000-2050 (t CO2/cap/a)
= carbon footprint (CO2/cap) 2000
3.3
+ 1.3
2.0
4.9
+ 0.65.5
0.8
+ 1.2
2.00.3
0.2+ 0.1
1.4+ 0.1
1.3 0.1
2.5
0.5+ 0.4
+ 0.9
3.4
0.4+ 0.4
0.8
0.2+ 0.8
1.0
2.3
0.7
+ 1.6
= + carbon footprint (CO2/cap) 2050
Source: 2010 ProgTrans AG
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• Singapore à Shanghai– Car industry
– City state vs. city in a region
• Shanghai à Beijing?– Bidding vs. lottery
– Control use vs. control ownership
• China à West?– Local context vs. generic human nature
16
Policy Transfers
Borrowing from the west
Experimenting within
Exporting knowledge?
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Poor People vs. Poor Country?
1.3 Billion Poor People in Middle Income Countries
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As a researcher...
A dynamic system vs. a static system
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Why do we care about China?
• Intellectual curiosity
• Altruism
• Interconnected world (abstract / tangible)
• Exporter of knowledge?
• Technology implementation
• Policy transfer
• New phenomena and new experience
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Jan 28, 2012
It is the first time since we began our detailed coverage of the United States in 1942 that we have singled out a country in this way.
The principal reason is that China is now an economic superpower and is fast becoming a military force capable of unsettling America.
But our interest in China lies also in its politics: it is governed by a system that is out of step with global norms.
In ways that were never true of post-war Japan and may never be true of India, China will both fascinate and agitate the rest of the world for a long time to come.
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Immense
Rapid
Out of Sync
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Urbanization Rate in China
Urban190m
1980
Rural863m
Urban690m
2011
Rural656m
Natural Growth
Natural Growth
~350m
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York 2010
1.05 Billion18%
1.35 Billion51%
Urban~1,000m
Rural~500m
2040
Natural Growth
Natural Growth
~350m
1.5 Billion67%
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Rebuild all American cities in 30 years
• infrastructure• services• institutions• …
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1990
2010
Shanghai
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Source: Wang Wenlan, Wen’s Lens, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/photo/wangwenlan/2009-12/07/content_9128656.htm
Beijing 1982
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Beijing 2010
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http://chinhdangvu.blogspot.ca/2012/12/the-great-smog-of-china.html
Beyond indexPM2.5 Jan 12, 2013Beijing 755; NYC 19
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Immense
Rapid
Out of Sync
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Class 1: Multiple Interpretations Urbanization Out of Sync
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Multiple InterpretationsBuilt environment
Administration
Economy
Welfare
Lifestyle
Political
Cultural
Discussion 2
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Multiple Interpretations
“Noosphere”
Sphere of Human Thoughts
both at the top and at the bottom
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Multiple InterpretationsSpatiality
De-spatialization
Other interpretations?
migrants going back to hometown
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Tensions
Discussion 3
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Tensions
People vs. land
Economy vs. environment
Financing vs. urban form
Locals vs. migrants
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Tensions
Examples from the syllabus
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Next 30 years vs. past 30 years
Discussion 4
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Source: UN Human Development Report 2007/2008
Percentage of urbanized population in 2009
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York 2010
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Urbanization Rate in China
Urban190m
1980
Rural863m
Urban690m
2011
Rural656m
Natural Growth
Natural Growth
~350m
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York 2010
1.05 Billion18%
1.35 Billion51%
Urban~1,000m
Rural~500m
2040
Natural Growth
Natural Growth
~350m
1.5 Billion67%
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Next 30 years vs. past 30 years
• changing nature of the challenges
• responses in urban governance
Discussion 4
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Status quo Direction / Ideal
• Quality
• Consumption
• People centered
• Small scale
• Cooperative
• Participation
• Quantity
• Production
• Infrastructure centered
• Large scale
• Competitive
• Top down
China’s transition
40
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Is China an Outlier?
Didn’t NYC grow as fast in late 19th century?
Discussion 5
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Chinese Going to Town
2011: 1.35 billion; 51.3% in urban areas
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Land ReformHousing market
High Speed Rail
Urban Finance
Cultural Heritage
Beijing Smog
Real Estate Development
Big Data
Spatial Equity
Urban Form
Aging SocietyMigrant workers
Car Love Affair
Infrastructure
Affordable housing
Urban vs. Region
Governance
Urban Agglomeration
Energy Efficiency
Topics
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ConnectionsCNY 2 trillion high speed rail ... urban agglomeration ... spatial structure transformation ... real estate development ... urban and regional relationship ... governance
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Land ReformHousing market
High Speed Rail
Urban Finance
Cultural Heritage
Beijing Smog
Real Estate Development
Big Data
Spatial Equity
Urban Form
Aging SocietyMigrant workers
Car Love Affair
Infrastructure
Affordable housing
Urban vs. Region
Governance
Urban Agglomeration
Energy Efficiency
Discussion 6
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What difference does rapid urbanization make?
E.g. we need to discuss affordable housing with or without rapid urbanization?
Exacerbate, change the nature, provide opportunity, no difference?
Discussion 7
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Cases and Connections
• Urbanization Out of Sync• Is China an Outliner?• Fundamentals: Hukou and Migration
• Land Use and Public Finance Institutions • Quota Market in Chongqing: De-spatialize Land Transfer• Brownfield in Beijing: How Cities Recycle Industrial Land?• Public Finance Innovations in Nanchang• Real Estate Development Process
• Managing Car Ownership• Urban Infrastructure • Dispersion of Urban Agglomeration through High Speed Rail• Costs of Air Pollution: Human Health Damage• Progress in Energy Efficiency: Technology, Policy and Market• Financing Urban Access: Transportation, Urban Form and Land Grabbing• Untangling Complex Urban Issues through Emerging Big Data
• Drifting and getting stuck: Migrants in Chinese cities • Urbanization vs. Citizenization: Migrants in Wangjingxi Market• Spatial Justice in Affordable Housing Design in Ningbo• Preserving Beijing’s Spatial Tradition in Rapid Urban Development• Aging Society: Offering Care to the Elderly in the Confucius Society• Forging Greater Xi’an: New Regional Strategies
Preface1
2
3
4
Land & Money
Hardware
Software
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MIT as a Big KindergartenMitchel Resnick
On Form
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NPR’s On Point with Tom Ashbrook
Future of NewspaperJeff Bezos buying Washington Post
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A Reflective Dialogue
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Programming of a Class
• Jinhua opens the topic (10 min)
• Guests present the case (15 min)
• Dialogue (30 min): Jinhua challenges the guests and students participate in the debates
• Guests reflect on the discussion (10 min)
• Jinhua concludes (5 min)
• Students write in-class idea notes (10 min, details below)
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On the idea notes• In class; email or paper
• What does the talk inspire you to think? Either as a practitioner, a researcher, or a citizen
• How does this particular talk connect to other topics?
• Any personal experience related to the discussion today?
• Did the dialogue today change any of your prior notions about China? How so?
• What if you were the presenter today? Anything you would do differently?
• On data, method and research design: anything you’ve learned?
• Ideas for your team project?
Liyan and I will synthesize and report back!
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Speakers
15 guests from MIT, Tufts, Harvard, Columbia, Stanford, Tongji and Tsinghua
Jinhua: critical commentator that provides a coherent story line and 2~3 generic logic.
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Students’ Role
Options of class registration12
Credits6
CreditsListener
Class participation 40% =27% (in class idea notes) + 13% (discussion)
Yes Yes Yes
Literature synthesis 20% Yes Yes
Team project 40%a) Idea: not gradedb) Proposal: 10% c) Draft report: 10%d) Final report: 20%
Yes
Listeners are welcome on one condition: to attend at least 70% of the classes and submit in-class idea notes.
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Literature Synthesis
• Holes in the structure
• Education
• Law and rule of law
• Property right
• ...
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Literature Synthesis
• Pairing of students
• Flip sides of the same issue
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Full of contradictions
• E.g. Environment
• Biggest renewable energy
• Biggest polluter
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China Hype and China Bashing
• GDP: 9.5% per year for 30 years
• Urbanize 370m people without slum
• Raise hundreds of millions of people from poor
• Million miles of road, billions of square feet of housing
• Biggest CO2 emitter
• Severe pollutions
• Political reform
• Inequality
– urban – rural; east – west; within city
– from one extreme to another extreme
58
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Team project
• Student Pairs
• Project idea and ppt (not graded)
• Project proposal and ppt (10%)
• Project draft report and ppt (10%)
• Project final report (20%)
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Project Proposal Project Report (Draft and Final)
Project TitleHighlightsAbstract (250 words)Key words1. Introduction
1.Context / Significance2.Objectives / Research questions
2. Literature Review3. Methodology
1.Data2.Models / theories / methods
4. Expected results5. Expected impact and policy implications6. References
Project TitleHighlightsAbstract (250 words)Key words1. Introduction
1.Context / Significance2.Objectives / Research questions
2. Literature Review3. Methodology
1.Data2.Models / theories / methods
4. Analysis results and interpretation5. Discussion
1.Summary of research findings2. Impact and Policy Implications3.Limitation and future research
6. References
Please use mendeley or zotero for references. Follow the APA style. I’ll provide two examples papers for you to learn about the formatting. Please use mendeley or zotero for references. Follow the APA style. I’ll provide two examples papers for you to learn about the formatting.
Team project deliverables
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Team project
Both draft and final reports are COMPLETE documentation of your projects.
• Draft: the best you can do before my comments• Final: the best you can do after my comments
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Recommended Books
• Weiping Wu and Piper Gaubatz (2013) The Chinese Cities
• Fulong Wu, Jiang Xu, and Anthony (2007) Urban development in post-reform China: state, market, and space
• Thomas Campanella (2011) The Concrete Dragon: China's Urban Revolution and What It Means For The World
• John R. Logan (2008) Urban China in Transition
• John Friedmann (2006) China's Urban Transition
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Logistics
• MW 9:30-11:00; 9-450B
• Videotaping of all classes
• Professor: Jinhua Zhao [email protected]
• TA: Liyan Xu [email protected]
• Website: http://mit.edu/jinhua/www/china
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Next class
Is China an Outlier? China’s Urbanization in the Historical and International Contexts
Liyan Xu
Readings: Chen, M., Liu, W., & Tao, X. (2013). Evolution and assessment on China’s urbanization 1960–2010: Under-urbanization or over-urbanization?
Habitat International, 38(0)
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In Class Idea Notes
• Please write ...
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Concluding Remarks I
• Design of the course
• Top-down and bottom up
• Cases vs. theories
• Content and format
• Findings and research methods
• Students, Guest, Liyan and Jinhua
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Concluding Remarks II
• Urbanizing China vs. China’s Urbanization
• Urbanizing China as a Conscious Action
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Concluding Remarks III
• Typical pitfalls
• Attribute everything to urbanization
• Over generalize
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ComplexContradictory
Constantly-changing
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Urbanizing ChinaA reflective dialogue
11.S945, MW9:30-11:00 9-450B, Professor: Jinhua Zhao, TA: Liyan Xu