U.S. Climate Change Science ProgramU.S. Climate Change Science Program& Climate Change Technology Program& Climate Change Technology Program

Updates Updates

NOAA Science Advisory Board MeetingNOAA Science Advisory Board Meeting

July 14, 2004July 14, 2004

James R. Mahoney, Ph.D. Assistant Secretary of Commerce

for Oceans and AtmosphereDirector, Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)

Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)

CCSP MilestonesNOV 2002 Discussion Draft of CCSP Strategic Plan

DEC 2002 CCSP Planning Workshop for Scientists and Stakeholders

JAN 2003 Written comments received from scientific and user communities

FEB 2003 NRC report, Planning Climate and Global Change Research: A Review of the Draft U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

JULY 2003 Publication of the (revised) Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

FEB 2004 NRC report, Implementing Climate and Global Change Research: A Review of the Final U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

National Research Council Review on (final) CCSP Strategic Plan

“The Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program articulates a guiding vision, is appropriately ambitious, and is broad in scope.”

“In fact, the approaches taken by the CCSP to receive and respond to comments from a large and broad group of scientists and stakeholders, including a two-stage independent review of the plan, set a high standard for government research programs.”

“As a result, the revised strategic plan is much improved over its November 2002 draft, and now includes the elements of a strategic management framework that could permit it to effectively guide research on climate and associated global changes over the next decades.”

“The plan addresses much of the critical science in a strategic framework that places the research it proposes in the context of national needs.”

CCSP Synthesis and Assessment (S&A) Products

Apr 1, 2004 Pubic Comment Period for Draft Guidelines for the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products

(Guidelines)

May 7, 2004 Public comment period ended for the Guidelines and 35 pages of comments were

received

July 8, 2004 Product 1.1 prospectus posted for pubic comment on CCSP web site and Federal

Register (on 7/13).

July 30, 2004 Revised Guidelines to be posted

Product Number

The Nine Near Term (within two years) Synthesis and Assessment Products

1.1 Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere—steps for understanding and reconciling differences. [STATUS: Prospectus out for public comment]

1.2 Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes.

2.1 Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations, in collaboration with the CCTP. Review of integrated scenario development and application.

2.2 North American carbon budget and implications for the global carbon cycle.

3.1 Climate models and their uses and limitations, including sensitivity, feedbacks, and uncertainty analysis.

4.1 Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise.

5.1 Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in decision-support for selected sectors and regions.

5.2 Best-practice approaches to characterize, communicate, and incorporate scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking.

5.3 Decision-support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to interannual forecasts and observational data.

Climate Change Science ProgramFY 2005 Request Research Budget ($M)

Agency FY05DOE 130EPA 21NASA 321HHS 65DOC/NOAA 142NSF 210SI 6DOS 1USAID 6USDA 71DOI/USGS 29Scientific Research 1005Space-Based Obs. 950Grand Total 1955

DOE13%

EPA2%

NASA32%

HHS6%

DOC/NOAA14%

NSF21%

USDA7%

DOI/USGS3%

SI1%

DOS0%

USAID1%

CCSP Priorities

Administration Priorities Reduce scientific uncertainties in aerosols

Reduce scientific uncertainties in carbon sources and sinks (and water cycle)

Improve climate observations

Improve climate modeling systems

Strategic Plan Priorities Enhance decision support capabilities

Enhance communications

FY06 Budget Exercise

Coordinated approach to climate science priorities are consistent across the federal government

Requiring agency principals to have knowledge of and integrate, when appropriate, climate programs across their entire agency

Challenges Ahead for CCSP

As always, the budget process

Scientific prioritization for the government and each individual agency

Achieving high quantity deliverable stream

Maintaining credibility

Maintaining interaction with the scientific and international communities, as well as the users

Delivering the best possible science to inform decisionmakers

Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP)

The Near Term Goal:Reducing GHG Intensity

Goal: 18% GHG intensity reduction by 2012 500MMTCE reductions from 2002-2012

Tools: Policy Science Technology International Cooperation

CCTP 2003 Major Deliverables Research and Current Activities Report

Reducing emissions from energy end-use and infrastructure Reducing emissions from energy supply Capturing and sequestering carbon dioxide Reducing emissions of other greenhouse gases Enhancing measurement and monitoring capabilities

Technology Options Report Hydrogen Fuel/Freedom CAR (Cooperative Automotive Research) IPHE (International Partnership on Hydrogen Economy) FutureGen CSLF (Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum) Nuclear Power Gen IV ITER

Technology Options for the Near and Long-Term

Transportation Buildings Infrastructure (Grid) Industry Low-emissions fossil-

based power and fuels Hydrogen Renewable energy and

fuels Nuclear fission

Nuclear fusion Geologic sequestration Terrestrial sequestration Ocean sequestration Methane emissions Other High GWP Gases Tropospheric Ozone

Precursors and Black Carbon

Measurement and Monitoring

Policy Actions for Near-Term Progress

Voluntary Programs Climate VISION (www.climatevision.gov) Climate Leaders (www.epa.gov/climateleaders) SmartWay Transport Partnership

(www.epa.gov/smartway) 1605(b)

Tax incentives/deployment partnerships Fuel Economy Increase for Light Trucks USDA Incentives for Sequestration USAID and GEF funding Initiative Against Illegal Logging

Tropical Forest Conservation

Climate Change Technology FY05 Request

CCTP Portfolio

338, 14%

235, 9%

270, 11%

295, 12%264, 11%

237, 10%

85, 3%

756, 30% EE

Renewables

H2

Fission

Fusion

FutureGen

Sequestration

Deployment

$3 billion in technology

Agency FY05USDA 33.3DOC/NIST 9.7DoD 48DOE 2556.8DOI/USGS 0.5DOT 1.8EPA 109.5NASA 209.1NSF 12.5USAID 153.6AGENCY TOTAL 3134.9

Climate Change Technology FY05 Request

DOE82%

USAID5%NSF

0%NASA7%EPA

3%

USDA1%

DOC/NIST0%

DoD2%

DOT0%

DOI/USGS0%

CCTP Strategic Plan – Late 2004

Introduction/Context

Goal Chapters Role for Technology R&D Strategy Current Portfolio Emphasis Future Applied Research Directions

Focusing Basic Science Contributions

Conclusion and Appendices

CCTP and CCSP Collaborations

Carbon Sequestration

Emissions Scenarios (S&A Product for CCSP)

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