use of simulation modeling to address impact of recurring bad weather events, bigger vessels and...
DESCRIPTION
How Gulf Ports can plan a terminal to address impact of recurring bad weather events, bigger vessels and surge in petroleum tradeTRANSCRIPT
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How Gulf Ports can Plan a Terminal to Address Impactof Recurring Bad Weather Events, Bigger Vessels andSurge in Petroleum Trade
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Simulate it, if you can’t Predict it
• Description of the behavior of the port written in code
• Sequential movement of vessels, channel constraints, loading andunloading operations at each berth, tugs/pilots, tide etc
• Fluctuations in Cargo Being handled
• Berth Suspension due to– Bad Weather (wind, waves, lightning and swells)– Maintenance
RandomScheduled
• Variation in Vessel Size
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3
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Bar
rels
per
Day
Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Import from Gulf PortsDecreasing since 2005
Source:
U.S.A Total
Gulf Coast Ports(market share almost remained same)
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4
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Bar
rels
per
Day
Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Export from Gulf PortsIncreasing since 2001
U.S.A Total
Gulf Coast Ports(market share about to double)
Source:
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Planning and Analysis Process
• Develop conceptual alternatives• Simulate each alternative• Use simulation output data to
compare overall cost– Capital cost– Operating cost including
demurrage• Refine and repeat• Recommend optimal layout for
each phase of development
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Simulate Channel Deepening and PortDevelopment Plans
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Petroleum Terminal Expansion Planning
Tank Farm 1
Product 1
Tank Farm 2
Refinery 1
Berth 1
SPM 1 SPM 2
Berth 2
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Simulation Scenario 1
Tank Farm 1
Product 1
Tank Farm 2
Product 2
Refinery 1
Berth 1
SPM 1
Berth 2
SPM 2(Overhauled)
Power Plant 1
Refinery 2
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Simulation Scenario 2
Tank Farm 1
Product 1
Tank Farm 2
Product 2 Product 4
Product 3
Refinery 1
Berth 1
SPM 1
Berth 2
SPM 2(Overhauled)
Power Plant 1
Refinery 2
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Tank Farms
Petroleum Product Export TerminalSimulation Model Animation
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Storage/Export :13
Storage/Export : 7
Storage/Export :15
Storage/Export : 7
Plan for Storage Space Required to HandleFuture Volume
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Annual Cost of Building an Additional Berthvs. Demurrage Payment
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
4.25
4.50
4.75
5.00
5.25
5.50
5.75
6.00
6.25
6.50
6.75
7.00
mor
e
Tanker Waiting Time (Days)
Num
ber o
f Tan
kers
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
Cum
ulat
ive
Freq
uenc
y (%
)
Number of Tankers Cumulative Frequency %
10% of Arriving Tankers Wait Morethan Permissible Limit, Resulting inDemurrage Payment
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$0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
6% 17% 33% 33% 33% 67%% Increase in Daily Export
Addi
tiona
l Inf
rast
ruct
ure
Cap
ital C
ost (
US
$)
SubstationsDemurrageAdditional BerthsPumps+MeteringPipelinesTankage
Comparison of Capital Cost for Planned ThroughputIncrease
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Why Simulate?
• Evaluate the capacity of the existing system and bottlenecks
• Determine the optimal Port infrastructure and dredging fundsto accommodate planned import/export
• Establish the need for waterside export facilities expansionregarding tanker service level and demurrage cost
• Initiate required capital projects ahead of demand
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Thank You for Attending. Any Questions?
Vijay AgrawalPort Analyst & Plannerphone: 510.844.0576email: [email protected]