walser smith - when the sonderweg debate left us

7/27/2019 Walser Smith - When the Sonderweg Debate Left Us

1/17

German Studies Association

:KHQWKH6RQGHUZHJ'HEDWH/HIW8V$XWKRUV+HOPXW:DOVHU6PLWK6RXUFH*HUPDQ6WXGLHV5HYLHZ9RO1R0D\SS3XEOLVKHGE\German Studies Association6WDEOH85/http://www.jstor.org/stable/27668514 .

$FFHVVHG

Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at .http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp

.JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range ofcontent in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms

of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected].

.

German Studies Association is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to German

Studies Review.

http://www.jstor.org

This content downloaded from 217.155.139.150 on Fri, 5 Apr 2013 12:13:22 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=gsahttp://www.jstor.org/stable/27668514?origin=JSTOR-pdfhttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsphttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsphttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsphttp://www.jstor.org/stable/27668514?origin=JSTOR-pdfhttp://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=gsa


2/17


3/17

*HUPDQ 6WXGLHV5HYLHZ

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

http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp


4/17

+HOPXW:DOVHU 6PLWK

OHGXOWLPDWHO\ WR FDWDVWURSKH $OH[DQGHU *HUVFKHQNURQ DQG %DUULQJWRQ 0RRUHKLVWRULFDO VRFLRORJLVWV IRUZKRP LWZDV D[LRPDWLF WKDW QLQHWHHQWKFHQWXU\ VWUXFWXUHV VKDSHG WZHQWLHWKFHQWXU\ RXWFRPHV IROORZHG VLPLODU OLQHV RI UHDVRQLQJ7KLV VHQVHRIWKHSRZHUIXO VKDSLQJIRUFHRIWKHQLQHWHHQWK FHQWXU\LVQRZSDVVLQJ DQG LWLVSDVVLQJ LQ*HUPDQ\ WRR7KLV SDVVLQJ KDV UHFHQWO\EHHQ WKHVXEMHFWRIDZLGHUDQJLQJ KLVWRULFDO UHIOHFWLRQE\3DXO1ROWH HQWLWOHG$EVFKLHGYRP -DKUKXQGHUW$XIGHU6XFKHQDFK HLQHUDQGHUHQ0RGHUQH 6XIILFHKHUHWKDWLQWKH)HGHUDO 5HSXEOLF DSRZHUIXOKLVWRULRJUDSKLFDO WUDGLWLRQDQDO\WLFDOO\WLHGWKHGHHS VWUXFWXUHVRIWKHQLQHWHHQWK FHQWXU\WRWKHFDWDVWURSKHV RIWKHWZHQWLHWKKLV WUDGLWLRQLQFOXGHG:HUQHU &RQ]H ZKR VDZWKH9RUP"U] DVWKHKDUELQJHURIDQHZ LQGXVWULDOFLYLOL]DWLRQ)ULHGULFK0HLQHFNH ZKR GLVFHUQHG DGHFLVLYHEUHDNZKHQ*HUPDQ QDWLRQDOLVP ORVWLWVLGHDOLVWFRPSRQHQW DQG)ULW])LVFKHUZKR WUDFHG VWURQJFRQWLQXLWLHV IURPWKH:LOKHOPLQLDQ WR WKH1D]LSHULRG ,WDOVR LQFOXGHG*HUKDUG 5LWWHUZKR VDZWKHGHPRFUDWLFPRPHQW RIWKH)UHQFK5HYROXWLRQ DV WKHGHFLVLYH EUHDN LQWRDGDUNPRGHUQLW\"D YLHZ WKDWZLWKGLIIHUHQWSROLWLFV DQGGLIIHUHQWFKDQQHOV RILQIOXHQFHVWLOOUHVRQDWHV HVSHFLDOO\LQ,VUDHODQG)UDQFH ,Q*HUPDQ\ WKHWUDGLWLRQRIVHHLQJWKHQLQHWHHQWKFHQWXU\DVSURIRXQGO\ VWUXFWXULQJIRUWKHWZHQWLHWKDQFKRUHG WKHPRQXPHQWDOV\QWKHWLFZRUNV RI+HLQULFK $XJXVW:LQNOHU DQG+DQV8OULFK :HKOHU 7KHLULQWHUSUHWDWLRQVRI WKH ORQJXHGXU"HRI*HUPDQ KLVWRU\KRZHYHU GLIIHUHQWLQPDWWHUV RI GHWDLO WXUQHG RQ QLQHWHHQWKFHQWXU\ GHYHORSPHQWV WKH QDWLRQVWDWHDQG LQGXVWULDOEUHDNWKURXJK DQGDPLVVHG UHYROXWLRQ LQFLYLOVRFLHW\7KLV ZDVRIFRXUVH WKHFHQWUDOWKHVLVRIWKH*HUPDQ 6RQGHUZHJZKLFK KDG DSSHDUHG LQPDQ\JXLVHVIURPWKHVHOIFULWLFDOUHIOHFWLRQVRI(UQVW7URHOWVFK WRWKHVZHHSLQJFKURQRORJLFDOO\GHHS(XURSHDQZLGH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQI(XJHQ5RVHQVWRFN+XHVV\WRWKHSURIRXQG LILGLRV\QFUDWLFHVVD\VRI+HOPXWK 3OHVVQHU%XWQRZKHUH GLGLWDSSHDUZLWK VXFKFRQFHQWUDWHG YLJRU DV LQWKHZRUN RIDJURXSRIKLVWRULDQVLQFOXGLQJ:LQNOHU DQG:HKOHU EXW DOVR-"UJHQ.RFND DQG9RONHU %HUJKDKQ

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

,7KH 6RQGHUZHJFDPHXQGHU DWWDFNQRW DIWHUEXW LQWKHHDUO\HLJKWLHV ,QRUGHU WRXQGHUVWDQG WKHFXUUHQWKLVWRULRJUDSKLFDOPRPHQW"FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\WKHDEVHQFH RI VWURQJFRQQHFWLQJ WKUHDGVEHWZHHQ WKHQLQHWHHQWK DQGWZHQWLHWK



5/17


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



6/17

+HOPXW:DOVHU 6PLWK

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

RQ@WKHPRUH LPPHGLDWH FLUFXPVWDQFHVXQGHUZKLFK WKH1D]LV URVH WRSRZHU"QDPHO\ WKHVXFFHHGLQJ FRQMXFWXUHV RIWKH)LUVW:RUOG :DU WKHSRVWZDU FULVLVRI DQG WKHZRUOG HFRQRPLFFULVLVDIWHU,QKLVUHFHQWO\SXEOLVKHGZRUN$&URRNHG/LQH)URP&XOWXUDO

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



7/17


LQ+H WKHQDGGHG WKDWRQH RIWKHPRVW LQWHUHVWLQJLVVXHVWRGD\ LVKRZZH FDQUHFRQFLOH WKHXQGRXEWHG LPSRUWDQFHRIFRQWLQXLWLHV WKURXJKWKHSHULRG WKH HUD RIFODVVLF PRGHUQLW\([SOLFLW DUWLFXODWLRQVRQO\WHOOSDUWRIWKHVWRU\RZHYHU7KH VWUXFWXUHRIWKHDUJXPHQWLQHFXOLDULWLHVDOVRVKLIWHGFRQVLGHUDEOHZHLJKW DZD\IURPWKHODWHVWKHVHFRQGIRXQGDWLRQRIWKH(PSLUH DQGWRWKHVZKLFK WKHQEHFDPH WRXVH3DXO1ROWHV WHUPWKHNH\HOHPHQWRID ODUJHULQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIKLVWRU\%XWKRZ GLG WKHV DFWXDOO\ VWUXFWXUHVXEVHTXHQW KLVWRU\LQVRIDUDVWKDWKLVWRU\

KDG VRPHWKLQJ WRVD\DERXW "(OH\PRUH WKDQ%ODFNERXUQ KDV DWWHPSWHGWRDQVZHUWKHTXHVWLRQ H[SOLFLWO\,QIDFWKHKDVJLYHQ WZRDQVZHUVRQH LQGHEWHGWRDPRGLILHG0DU[LVW DQDO\VLV WKHRWKHU WR'HWOHY 3HXNHUW7KH ILUVWDQVZHUZDV IRFXVHG RQ DV VXFKWKHVHFRQG RQ WKHEUXWDOLW\RIWKH7KLUG 5HLFKQ

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



8/17

+HOPXW:DOVHU 6PLWK

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


9/17


DQG WKHVSLULWRIVFLHQFH DWWKHFHQWHURIWKH:HLPDU ([SHULHQFH0RUHRYHU KLVLQVLJKWVUHPDLQ UHPDUNDEO\ VXJJHVWLYH HVSHFLDOO\ IRUWKHPLGGOH \HDU RIWKH:HLPDU 5HSXEOLF


10/17

+HOPXW:DOVHU 6PLWK

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


11/17


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


12/17

+HOPXW:DOVHU 6PLWK

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



13/17


XQFKDQJLQJ KDWUHG7KH WKLUGGHILQLWLRQHQGRJHQRXV FKDQJH VXJJHVWV WKDWKLVWRULFDO GHYHORSPHQW RU GHIRUPDWLRQ UHVXOWV IURP UHFXUULQJ PHFKDQLVPVWKDWLQKHUHZLWKLQ DJLYHQV\VWHPWKHSROLWLFDOSUHSRQGHUDQFH RIDJUDULDQHOLWHVLQDG\QDPLF LQGXVWULDOHFRQRP\YLWLDWLQJDWWHPSWVDWDFKLHYLQJGHPRFUDF\IRUH[DPSOH7KLV ZD\ RIWKLQNLQJDERXW FRQWLQXLW\ZDV FHQWUDO WR:HKOHUV HDUO\IRUPXODWLRQVRIWKH6RQGHUZHJVLQFHWKHFDXVDO OLQNZDV ORFDWHG LQWKHV\VWHPDQGH[RJHQRXV VKRFNV OLNHWKHLPSDFWRIZDURQO\DIIHFWHGWKHUDWHRIFKDQJHQRWWKHPHFKDQLVP SHUVHKHQ WKHUHLVWKHOHQJWKRIFDXVDOUHJUHVV*HUVFKHQNURQVIRXUWKFDWHJRU\ ,WSRVLWV WKDWFRJHQW KLVWRULFDO DUJXPHQWDWLRQ UHTXLUHV WKDWFDXVHV EH IROORZHG EDFNZDUGVQRW LQILQLWHO\XW VLJQLILFDQWO\KH LPPHGLDWHRULJLQVRIWKH5XVVLDQ 5HYROXWLRQ IRUH[DPSOHPD\ EHGLVFHUQHG LQRUOG:DU,RU LQWKHIDLOXUHRIWKH5HIRUPV RI EXW WKH5HYROXWLRQV GHHSHU FDXVHVOLHLQWKH5XVVLDQ RUGHDO RIVHUIGRPDQGDEVROXWLVP DQG WKHUHIRUHLWVRULJLQVFDQEH WUDFHGWRWKHHFRQRPLF SROLFLHV RI&DWKHULQH ,," SROLFLHV WKDWEHQHILWHGUXUDO ORUGVDQG WKHWUDGH LQVHUIVDWWKHH[SHQVH RIPLGGOH FODVVPHUFKDQWV7KH H[SODQDWLRQ GRHVQRWQHFHVVDULO\SUHVXSSRVH 5XVVLDQ XQLTXHQHVV RQO\WKDWVHUIGRP DQG DEVROXWLVP UHSUHVHQW SRZHUIXO FDXVDO VWUHDPV )LQDOO\ WKHUH LVVWDELOLW\LQWKHUDWHRIFKDQJH+HUH WKHTXHVWLRQ FRQFHUQV WKHVLJQLILFDQWNLQNLQ FRQWLQXLW\ WKH PHWDSKRU WDNHQ IURP HFRQRPLF WDNHRII LQ D EDFNZDUGVHFRQRP\ZLWK WKHHOHPHQWRIFRQWLQXLW\PHDVXUHG IURPWKHVLJQLILFDQWVKLIWLQWKH VHULHV

&RQWLQXLW\*HUVFKHQNURQ LQVLVWHGLVDWHUPRIVFKRODUVKLSQRWSROLWLFV DOOILYH PRGHOV DUH RUGHULQJ GHYLFHV SURJUDPV IRU UHVHDUFK $QG WKH\ DUH FUXFLDOIRUVKDSLQJ WKHKLVWRULFDO ILHOG7KH 6RQGHUZHJIRUH[DPSOHQHFHVVLWDWHG WKDWKLVWRULDQV VKRZQRWRQO\WKHIRUFHRIDFDXVDO IDFWRUOLNHQDWLRQDOLVP EXW DOVRLWVSHFXOLDU IRUFH LQUHODWLRQ WRRWKHU FRXQWULHV ,W DOVR H[SODLQHG FKDQJH LQDOPRVW H[FOXVLYHO\ HQGRJHQRXV WHUPV


14/17


15/17


&KLFDJR 8QLYHUVLW\ RI&KLFDJR 3UHVV DQG H[WUHPHO\ IUXLWIXO DQG VXJJHVWLYH$ODLQ )LQNLHONUDXW 9HUOXVW GHU0HQVFKOLFKNHLW 9HUVXFK "EHU GDV -DKUKXQGHUW 6XVDQQH6FKDSHU WUDQV 6WXWWJDUW 'HXWVFKH 9HUODJV$QVWDOW 0RQXPHQWDO DQGZLWK VLJQLILFDQW SXEOLF UHVRQDQFH +HLQULFK $XJXVW :LQNOHU 'HUODQJH:HJ QDFK:HVWHQ 'HXWVFKH *HVFKLFKWH YRP(QGH GHV$OWHQ 5HLFKHV ELV]XP 8QWHUJDQJGHU:HLPDUHU 5HSXEOLN YROV 0XQLFK &+ %HFN +DQV8OULFK :HKOHU 'HXWVFKH

*HVHOOVFKDIWVJHVFKLFKWH YRO 0XQLFK &+ %HFN )RU7URHOWVFKVHHKLV6FKULIWHQXU3ROLWLNXQG.XOWXUSKLORVRSKLH*DQJROI+"ELQJHU LQ=XVDPPHQDUEHLW PLW-RKDQQHV0LNXWHLW HGV %HUOLQ: GH*UX\WHU (UQVW 7URHOWVFK .ULWLVFKH *HVDPWDXVJDEH )ULHGULFK :LOKHOP *UDI 9RONHU 'UHKVHQ*DQJROI+"ELQJHU7UXW]5HQGWRUIIHGVLP$XIWUDJGHU+HLGHOEHUJHU$NDGHPLH GHU:LVVHQVFKDIWHQ %HUOLQ:DOWHU GH*UX\WHU 2Q (XJHQ 5RVHQVWRFN+XHVV\ 'LHHXURS"LVFKHQ 5HYROXWLRQHQ 9RONVFKDUDNWHUH XQG 6WDDWHQELOGXQJ -HQD ( 'LHGHULFKV DQG IRUWKH LPSRUWDQFH RI WKLVERRN WR ODWHU IRUPXODWLRQV RI WKH6RQGHUZHJ WKHVLV HVSHFLDOO\:HKOHUV OLQHRI DUJXPHQWDWLRQ VHH+DQV8OULFK :HKOHU (LQH OHEKDIWH.DPSIVLWXDWLRQLQ*HVSU"FKPLW0DQIUHG+HWWOLQJXQG&RUQHOLXV7RUS0XQLFK&+ %HFN 2Q 3OHVVQHU VHH&DUROD 'LHW]H 1DFKJHKROWHV /HEHQ +HOPXWK 3OHVVQHU *"WWLQJHQ:DOOVWHLQ +DQV8OULFK :HKOHU 'DV GHXWVFKH.DLVHUUHLFK *"WWLQJHQ 9DQGHQKRHFN 5XSUHFKW'DYLG %ODFNERXUQDQG*HRII(OH\7KH3HFXOLDULWLHVRI*HUPDQ+LVWRU\%RXUJHRLV 6RFLHW\ DQG3ROLWLFV LQ1LQHWHHQWK&HQWXU\ *HUPDQ\ 2[IRUG 2[IRUG 8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV )RU WKHGLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ FRPSDUDWLYH KLVWRU\ WKHPHWKRG VKDUHG E\:HKOHU (OH\DQG %ODFNERXUQ DW WKHWLPH RI WKHGHEDWH DQG D WUDQVQDWLRQDO KLVWRU\ WKDWGHDOV FHQWUDOO\ZLWK WKH SUREOHP RIPXWXDO LQIOXHQFH *DOWRQV SUREOHP VHH -"UJHQ 2VWHUKDPPHO*HVFKLFKWVZLVVHQVFKDIW MHQVHLWV GHV1DWLRQDOVWDDWV 6WXGLHQ ]X %H]LHKXQJVJHVFKLFKWH XQG=LYLOLVDWLRQVYHUJOHLFK *"WWLQJHQ 9DQGHQKRHFN 5XSUHFKW 6HH HVSHFLDOO\-DPHV5HWDOODFN7KH*HUPDQ5LJKW3ROLWLFDO/LPLWVRIWKH$XWKRULWDULDQ ,PDJLQDWLRQ 7RURQWR 8QLYHUVLW\ RI7RURQWR 3UHVV DOVR5RJHU &KLFNHULQJ /DQJXDJH DQG WKH6RFLDO )RXQGDWLRQV RI5DGLFDO 1DWLRQDOLVP LQWKH:LOKHOPLQH (UD LQ*HUPDQ8QLILFDWLRQVQGWKH&KDQJHRILWHUDU\'LVFRXUVH :DOWHU 3DSH HG %HUOLQ: GH*UX\WHU %ODFNERXUQ DQG (OH\ 3HFXOLDULWLHV ,ELG DOVR *HRII (OH\ :KDW 3URGXFHV )DVFLVP 3UH,QGXVWULDO 7UDGLWLRQVRU D&ULVLV RI WKH&DSLWDOLVW 6WDWH" LQ (OH\ )URP 8QLILFDWLRQ WRD]LVP 5HLQWHUSUHWLQJWKH*HUPDQ3DVW%RVWRQ$OOHQ8QZLQ *HRII(OH\$&URRNHGLQH)URP&XOWXUDO+LVWRU\WRWKH+LVWRU\RIRFLHW\$QQ$UERU8QLYHUVLW\RI0LFKLJDQ 3UHVV'DYLG %ODFNERXUQ LQ)RUXP $Q LQWHUYLHZ ZLWK 'DYLG %ODFNERXUQ DQG*HRII (OH\*HUPDQ+LVWRU\1ROWH

(OH\ :KDW 3URGXFHV )DVFLVP 2Q WKH UROH RI*UDPVFL LQ WKHVH IRUPXODWLRQV VHH QRZ *HRII (OH\ DQG.HLWK 1HLOG7KH)XWXUHRIODVVLQ+LVWRM\:KDWV/HIWRIKHRFLDO$QQ$UERU8QLYHUVLW\RI0LFKLJDQ3UHVV %XW VHH DOVR7KRPDV 1LSSHUGH\ ZKR LQKLV UHYLHZ R"3HFXOLDULWLHVZU\O\ QRWHG ,FKPXVV JHVWHKHQ LFK OHVH(OH\ RKQH *UDPVFL XQG %ODFNERXUQ RKQH GLH)UDQNIXUWHUFKXOH1LSSHUGH\ LQLVWRULVFKH=HLWVFKULIW



16/17

+HOPXW:DOVHU 6PLWK

(OH\ :KDW 3URGXFHV )DVFLVP +HQU\ $ 7XUQHU -U*HUPDQ %LJ %XVLQHVV DQG WKH5LVH RI+LWOHU 1HZ


17/17


0HPEHUVKLS ILJXUHV LQ:HKOHU 'HXWVFKH *HVHOOVFKDIWVJHVFKLFKWH YRO DQG ,DQ 5REHUW 'RZELJJLQ $0HUFLIXO (QG 7KH (XWKDQDVLD 0RYHPHQW LQ0RGHUQ $PHULFD1HZ

walser smith - when the sonderweg debate left us

Documents