warming to the idea - ukcip · south west region climate change impacts scoping study page iv of 5...

Warming to the ideaMeeting the challenge of climate change in the South West

S O U T H W E S T R E G I O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E I M P A C T S S C O P I N G S T U D Y

T E C H N I C A L R E P O R T

i

WARMING TO THE IDEAMeeting the Challenge of Climate Change in the South West

A Stakeholder-led Scoping Studyinto theImpacts of Climate Change on the South West Region of England

Prepared for theSouth West Climate Change Impacts PartnershipJanuary 2003

South West Region Climate Change Impacts Scoping Study Page ii of 5

The study has been supported by:

Countryside Agency; Environment Agency; South West Regional Development Agency;South West Water PLC; Wessex Water PLC; WSAtkins

The Steering Group for the study has included representatives from:

Association of Electricity Producers, Bristol City Council, Business in the Community,Confederation of British Industries, Devon Wildlife Trust, Environment Agency; Federationof Small Businesses, Government Office of the South West, National Farmers Union,National Trust, South West Regional Assembly, Royal Agricultural College, South WestRegional Development Agency; South West Tourism; Sustainability South West, WessexWater PLC; UK Climate Impacts Programme

The study has been carried out by members of:

C-CLIF C-CLIF Ltd.c/o Camborne School of MinesRedruthCornwallTR15 3SE

GEMRU University of GloucestershireFrancis Close HallSwindon RoadCheltenhamGloucestershireGL50 4AZ

The main sections of the report have been authored by:

Chambers, F.,Charlesworth, A.,Forrest, V.,Hunt, J.,McEwen L.,Metcalf, G.,Russell, K.,Schofield, S.

The report should be referenced as:

Metcalf, G., Chambers, F., Charlesworth, A., Forrest, V., Hunt, J., McEwen L., Russell, K., andSchofield, S. (Eds), Warming to the Idea, Technical Report, South West Region Climate ChangeImpacts Scoping Study, 2003, Cheltenham, UK

South West Region Climate Change Impacts Scoping Study Page iii of 5

Members of the Steering Group

Association of Electricity Producers Martin AlderBristol City Council Martin FodorBusiness in the Community Mike ZeidlerConfederation of British Industries Simon FaceDevon Wildlife Trust Paul GompertzEnvironment Agency Ian Hope (Chair)Environment Agency Pete GrigoreyFederation of Small Businesses Ian HandfordGovernment Office of the South West Renata ReesNational Farmers Union Anthony GibsonNational Trust Alan WatsonSouth West Regional Assembly Jane LavickRoyal Agricultural College Jon ConwaySouth West Regional Development Agency Dominic VincentSouth West Tourism Lisa HenrySustainability South West Leslie McWilliamUK Climate Impacts Programme Richenda ConnellWessex Water PLC Luke de Vial

South West Region Climate Change Impacts Scoping Study Page iv of 5

Impacts of Climate Change on the South West Region of England

ContentsChapter Number Title and Content Page number

Chapter 0 Executive Summary 0.1

Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1Background 1.1Definitions 1.1Aims and Objectives 1.2Context 1.2Scope of Study 1.2Structure of Report 1.3Outputs of the Study 1.4

Chapter 2 Other research etc on climate change impacts 2.1Global Studies 2.1UK Initiatives 2.1SW Region Initiatives 2.2Available Data and Tools 2.2

Chapter 3 Climate Change Scenarios for Planet Earth 3.1“Global Warming” 3.1Climate Defined 3.1IPCC Scenarios and Climate Change Predictions 3.1Global Climate Change Impacts 3.4Global Impacts on South west Region 3.4

Chapter 4 The South West Region 4.1

Chapter 5 Climate in the South West 5.1Introduction 5.1History 5.1Future Climate 5.4Other Climate Data Issues 5.7

Chapter 6 Natural Environment DomainsLikely Impacts and Possible Adaptation Responses 6.1Introduction 6.1Baseline 6.1Summary of Climate Impacts on Domains 6.1Cross-sectoral Issues 6.2Summary of Recommendations 6.3Agriculture nd Horticulture Domain 6.4Biodiversity, Habitat, etc. Domain 6.9Coastal Domain 6.15Forestry Domain 6.20Marine Fisheries Domain 6.23Rivers, Fluvial Flooding and Drainage Domain 6.28Water Resources Domain 6.38

Chapter 7 Society and Infrastructure DomainsLikely Impacts and Possible Adaptation Responses 7.1Introduction 7.1Physical Infrastructure 7.1Lifestyle 7.1The Management of Change 7.1Summary of Recommendations 7.2Built Environment Domain 7.3Heritage Domain 7.9Housing Domain 7.15Public Health Domain 7.20Transport Domain 7.25Utilities Domain 7.32

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Chapter Number Title and Content Page number

Chapter 8 Business DomainsLikely Impacts and Possible Adaptation Responses 8.1Introduction 8.1Business Profile of the South West 8.1Challenges and Opportunities for Businesses 8.2Summary of Recommendations 8.4Advanced Engineering Domain 8.5Biotechnology Domain 8.8Environmental Technology Domain 8.11Financial Services Domain 8.15Food and Drink Domain 8.20ICT Domain 8.23Tourism and Leisure Domain 8.26Marine Engineering and Marine Activities Domain 8.32Tele-Marketing Domain 8.36

Chapter 9 Local Authority Domains 9.1Scope 9.1Baseline 9.1Other Drivers of Change 9.1Key Issues 9.1Discussion 9.2The Way Forward 9.4

Chapter 10 Cross-Sectoral Impact Domains 10.1Introduction 10.1Urban Context: Public Open Space 10.1Coastal Context: New Fish Species 10.2Rural Context: River Catchments 10.3Conservation Philosophies and Strategies 10.3Management through Partnerships 10.3

Chapter 11 Summary of Findings 11.1Introduction 11.1Climate Data for the SW Region 11.1Awareness of Climate Change 11.1Impact Domains: Impacts and Adaptation Responses 11.2

Chapter 12 Recommendations 12.1Introduction 12.1Overall Recommendations 12.1Recommendations for Natural Environment Domains 12.2Recommendations for Society & Infrastructure Domains 12.3Recommendations for Business Domains 12.4Recommendations for Local Authority Domains 12.5

Chapter 13 Priorities for Future Research 13.1Introduction 13.1Climate Science 13.1Natural Environment Domains 13.1Society and Infrastructure Domains 13.2Business Domains 13.2Local Authority Domains 13.3Others 13.3

Chapter 14 Conclusions 14.1

Annex 1 Annex1: Glossary of Terms A1Annex 2 Methodology: Investigating Impact Domains A2Annex 3 Bibliography A3Annex 4 List of Respondents A4Annex 5 Questionnaire A5

South West Region Climate Change Impacts Scoping Study Page 0.1

CHAPTER 0

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Introduction

This Scoping Study has been initiated andsupported by the South West Climate ChangeImpacts Partnership (SWCCIP), a group of keystakeholders in the South West Region. It setsout to describe the climate change scenariosprojected for the coming century in the south westregion, to identify the likely impacts of suchchange, and to suggest appropriate action torespond to the challenges and opportunitiespresented by these impacts. The studyrecognises the importance of the mitigation ofclimate change (reducing the emissions ofgreenhouse gases) as part of a widersustainability agenda. Nevertheless, the explicitfocus of this study is on adapting to the potentialimpacts of climate change.

The principal conclusion from the study is thatgenerally the region has little awareness of theissues associated with ‘adaptation’ to climatechange. The central government fundedorganisation with responsibility for encouragingwork on climate change impacts is the UK ClimateImpacts Programme: (UKCIP). Despite the recentlaunch of a new set of sophisticated climatechange scenarios (UKCIP02) only a small numberof regional stakeholders are aware of these data,or have explored their implications for their sector.

Other UK Research

The study forms part of the series of regionalScoping Studies undertaken across the UnitedKingdom under the auspices of the UKCIP.Thematic studies on subjects such as Health &Biodiversity have also been carried out in the UK.

Global Climate Change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) is acknowledged as the definitive, globalauthority on all aspects of climate change. Itswork is endorsed by 99 national governments andmany more independent, scientific andgovernment reviewers. In its Third AssessmentReport (known as TAR) the IPCC asserts that:

• climate change is occurring;• the present climate is significantly warmer

than at the beginning of the 20th Century;• ‘business-as-usual’ will lead to continued

major additions of greenhouse gases toatmosphere that will exacerbate so-called‘global warming’.

TAR suggests that global temperatures could riseby between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees C by the end ofthis century, and argues that most of the observed

warming over the last 50 years is due to humanactivities.

The South West Region

The SW region is renowned for its outstandinglyattractive environment. It is the largestgeographic region in England, and is home tonearly 5 million people. The Regional Strategyprepared by the South West RegionalDevelopment Agency (SWRDA) identifies thethree main characteristics of the region as:

• a growing region;• a region of diversity;• a region of environmental quality.

The region enjoys one of the lowestunemployment rates in the country. It attractsmore tourist spending than any other UK regionapart from London, although there is little recentgrowth in this sector. However, there are pocketsof deprivation, for example in Cornwall and theScillies, and in parts of urban areas such asBristol. Environmental quality features include:

• high water quality (rivers and bathing water);• large areas of landscape designations;• extensive agricultural land;• many wildlife designations;• 25% of English listed buildings;• 72% of English ancient monuments.

The economic development of the region willincreasingly depend upon these regional assetsmany of which are vulnerable to climate change.

Climate Change in the SW Region

Season AnticipatedClimate around2050s

AnticipatedClimate around2080s

Spring Warmer by 1.0 to2.0oC

Warmer by 1.5 to3.5oC

precipitationtotals similar topresent

precipitationtotals similar topresent

Summer Warmer by 1.5 to3.5oC


Drier by 15 to30%

Drier by 25 to55%

Autumn Warmer by 1.5 to3.0oC


Drier by 0 to 10% Drier by 5 to 15%

Winter Milder by 1.0 to2.0oC

Milder by 1.5 to3.5oC

Wetter by 5 to15%

Wetter by 10 to30%Snowfall less by70 to 90%

Table 0.1Summary of Anticipated Climate Change for South WestRegion for around the 2050s and around the 2080s.

http://www.ipcc.ch/


The table above shows the anticipated climatechanges for each season for the South Westregion for the periods around the 2050s andaround the 2080s. The latest climate scenariosreleased by UKCIP (UKCIP02) provide tworelated sets of data based on a 50km grid, eachsquare with its own climate profile. The firstdataset is a baseline of 1961-1990 against whichfuture scenarios can be compared. The seconddataset reports on a series of future scenarios forthree different 30-year time periods: around the2020s, around the 2050s and around the 2080s.A range of scenarios is based upon four differentlevels of future greenhouse gas emissions.

Likely Impacts and Responses

The studies that have been carried out by theresearch team explore a wide range of ImpactDomains. The most significant outcomes of thesestudies show that, although individuals seem tobe aware of climate change and the influence ofglobal warming, this awareness does not appearto feature in the agendas of businesses and otherorganisations in the region. Where climatechange does influence an organisation’s policy itis mitigation (avoiding further climate changethrough reduction in greenhouse gas emissions),rather than adaptation (responding to climateimpacts), that is the main consideration.

In the natural environment opportunities existfor new crops (maize, sunflowers, soya) andlivestock in agriculture, and for new types ofhabitat. In coastal waters new warmer waterspecies are already present and more areanticipated. Challenges exist from changes inrainfall and storm patterns (eg coastal erosion,river flooding, and reduced water availability insummer). There is a potential loss of speciesfrom coastal waters and decisions to be madeabout seeking to retain rare habitats and historiclandscapes in the face of a shifting climate.

In society and infrastructure domainsopportunities exist for reduced heating costs inwinter, increasing the output of renewable energysources, improved health as a result of moreoutdoor leisure activity, and exploiting the benefitsof cycling and walking as modes of transport.Challenges exist for cooling buildings in summer,conserving and protecting historical and naturalheritage, damage to buildings from floods,subsidence and storms, and maintaining strategicrail and road networks.

In the business sectors opportunities exist fromnew markets particularly arising from changinglifestyles. Examples include tourism and leisure,outdoor activities, food and drink, renewableenergy, and environmental monitoring equipment.Challenges exist from extreme climate events egdisruption to transport, communication lines andutilities (creating delays and downtime), damageto coastal infrastructure and facilities, increasedinsurance claims, and increased demand for thesummer cooling of buildings.

Recommendations

The SWCCIP is committed to taking forward theissues identified in its Scoping Study. ThePartnership will work to ensure that considerationof climate change is built into strategic plans forthe region. It has endorsed the followingrecommendations and proposed actions:

• Review the role of the South West ClimateChange Impacts Partnership to take forwardregional work on climate change.

• Ensure that the main findings andrecommendations of the Scoping Study areincorporated into current and future strategiesand frameworks within the region.

• Ensure that the South West Climate ChangeImpacts Partnership continues to have anoverall understanding of South West regionalwork on climate change impacts andadaptation, and to be a focal point forinformation.

• Encourage all organisations to identifyappropriate policy frameworks within which toincorporate adaptation strategies.

• Increase awareness of the need for climatechange adaptation across all sectors. Moststakeholders are ill-informed about, and ill-prepared for, dealing with the potentialimpacts of climate change.

• Ensure that simple messages are conveyed tothe media because conflicting messages cancreate confusion on the direction andmagnitude of climate change.

• Identify and take forward specific projectsfor action:� Review regional and sub-regional

arrangements for emergency planning inanticipation of extreme weather events.

� Co-ordinate the development of climatechange strategies within local authorities.

� Co-ordinate the development of climatechange strategies within sectors in theregion.

� Identify those issues at a regional levelwhere central government action isrequired.

� Undertake further research withinselected sectors to better understand thesignificance of local impacts.

Further Activity in the SW Region

The involvement of key stakeholders in the study,from private, public and voluntary sectors, hasbeen crucial to the findings of the study and itsrecommendations. The continuing engagementof these and other stakeholders will ensure thatboth the challenges and opportunities presentedby climate change are the subject of appropriateconcern across the region. The Scoping Studyprovides only the beginning of an ongoingprocess of regional activity to ensure that theSouth West is at the forefront of progress towardsadapting to climate change.


CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

“All organisations should anticipate climatechange – those that are most well-informed andinnovative will be best placed to respond to therisks and opportunities.”

The Rt. Hon Margaret Beckett MP; Secretary ofState for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs,April 2002

Background

The phenomenon of climate change is as old asplanet Earth. Its significance for the UnitedKingdom in the 21st Century is the rate at whichthat climate is now changing, the underlyingreasons for such rapid change, and the effectsthis will have on our lifestyle. This study is basedupon the assumption that:

• The UK climate will continue to change.• The scenarios offered by the UK Climate

Impacts Programme (UKCIP) areincreasingly reliable as indications of the UKclimate over the 21st Century.

• It is worthwhile exploring the potentialimpacts of such scenarios, and to suggestappropriate responses.

The evidence for a rapid increase in the rate ofclimate change in the United Kingdom iscompelling. Continuing research and monitoringat international and UK scales confirm theprospect of increased global temperatures andconsequent changes in the UK climate over the21st Century. Over 180 nations have ratified theUnited Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange and almost 100 parties have ratified oracceded to the Kyoto Protocol, which sets legallybinding constraints on greenhouse gas emissions.Despite this, it is still predicted that significantclimate change will occur over the coming centurydue to greenhouse gases which are already in theclimatic system.

These changes in climate will create significantimpacts that will present both problems andopportunities, for which well-informed adaptationstrategies must be developed. Despite theimprovement in the prediction techniques used byclimate scientists, there are continuing realms ofuncertainty. These uncertainties are particularlyassociated with the reliability of theoreticalmodels, the control of greenhouse gas emissions,and the underlying contribution of naturalprocesses to climate change.

Nevertheless, such uncertainties are not excusesfor not taking appropriate or precautionary action.Uncertainty and risk form part of all strategic andcommercial decision making. The lack of absolutecertainty in climate scenarios should not be seenas a reason for inactivity.

Definitions

Before introducing the aims and objectives andscope of the study, it is worth stating somedefinitions of some of the principal conceptsassociated with climate change. For example,there is even some confusion over what is meantby the term ‘climate change’ itself, and also someimportant distinctions to be made between“mitigation” and “adaptation” (see also Glossaryof Terms in Annex 1)

“Climate” refers to the average weatherexperienced in a region over a long period, (30years is the normal period taken by climatescientists). This includes not just temperature, butalso wind and rainfall patterns, and other climatevariables., such as humidity.

The climate of the Earth is not static, so “climatechange” refers simply to the continuous pattern ofchanges occurring in the past, in response to avariety of natural causes. Unfortunately, the term"climate change" is now more casually used withreference to the recent changes in climate thathave been observed since the early 1900’s. Theimplication here is that ‘climate change’ arises(only) as a result of human activity. This study isbased on the wider understanding that ‘climatechange’ is a longstanding and continuousphenomenon, which is now subject to theinfluences of human activity, and is thereforechanging more rapidly.

The “greenhouse effect” is also naturally occurringand makes life on earth possible. Certain gases inthe atmosphere (so-called greenhouse gases)absorb energy that is radiated from the Earth’ssurface, and so warm the atmosphere. Withoutthe greenhouse effect, life on Earth as we know itwould not be possible, as the Earth would becooler by about 30 degrees Centigrade.

However, the relatively recent increase in theburning of fossil fuels has resulted in the releaseof large amounts of greenhouse gases into theatmosphere, thereby enhancing the greenhouseeffect.

It should be recognised that these ideas are notuniversally shared. The proposition that humanactivities are altering climate significantly is notaccepted by some industrialists and somescientists. That there are dissenting voicesindicates that what is being discussed areopinions, estimates and projections, backed bytheory and deriving from hypotheses, and so arenot necessarily “facts”, however defined.

Nevertheless, the dominant view, and certainlythat which is articulated by the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC), is that theincrease in greenhouse gases, caused by humanactivity, is the principal reason for increases inglobal temperatures, and consequent climatechange. This is known as the “anthropogenic


component” of climate change. There is a varietyof alternative views some of which seek to playdown the human impact and provide explanationsbased upon “natural variability” in cycles ofclimate.

Most work on climate change both in terms ofacademic research and practical activity, seeks toreduce the human effects on global warming byreducing the quantity of greenhouse gasesreleased to the atmosphere. This is known as“mitigation”, and forms a key part of the‘sustainability’ agendas adopted by central andlocal government, businesses and Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs).

However, for the purposes of this study on theimpacts of climate change, the causes of climatechange are not so critical. The focus is on whatactions society might take in responding to thosechanges in climate that are now ‘in the system’and appear to be most likely. Such responses areknown as “adaptation” and lie at the heart of thisstudy.

Aims and Objectives

This Scoping Study sets out to understand thepotential impacts of climate change upon theSouth West region of the United Kingdom, toexplore the current understanding of adaptation toclimate change across the region, and to considerpossible responses. The principal aims of theScoping Study are to:

• Provide an overview of the best currentinformation on the predicted climatescenarios at global and UK scales.

• Provide a summary of historic andcontemporary climate change data for theSouth West Region, revealing observedtrends.

• Provide an overview of the latest UKCIPclimate scenarios for the South West regionfor thirty year periods centred around the2020’s, the 2050’s, and the 2080’s.

• Identify the key stakeholders in the SouthWest Region who will be most affected byclimate and assess stakeholders’ views onthe likely impact on their interests.

• Report on how stakeholders expect torespond to ‘opportunities’ and ‘problems’associated with adaptation to climate change.

• Assess the key climate change issues for theSouth West Region to provide integrated,cross-sector information on which to basefuture strategy for climate change adaptation.

• Identify priorities for further research andinformation collection in developing a betterunderstanding of the type and extent ofpotential impacts and appropriate adaptationresponses.

• Overall, to provide a single authoritativedocument on climate change impacts in theSouth West, for the use of stakeholders in theregion, as well as for decision makers atnational level.

Context

In the South West Region, work on the impacts ofclimate change is being co-ordinated through apartnership between key stakeholders, known asthe South West Climate Change ImpactsPartnership (SWCCIP). Its mission is: “toinvestigate, inform and advise on the impacts ofclimate change in South West England”.

In 1996 the Climate Change Impacts ReviewGroup (CCIRG) reported on the potential effectsof climate change in the United Kingdom. Thenational response to this review is now led by theDEFRA funded UK Climate Impacts Programme(UKCIP), which seeks to facilitate stakeholder-led,integrated regional studies to assess the impactsof climate change on the UK and to encourageappropriate adaptation responses. UKCIPprovides a national framework within whichregional initiatives can be undertaken.

At a national level, this Scoping Study providesUKCIP with a study similar to those that havealready been produced for other UK regions. Sofar eight regional Scoping Studies have beencompleted as well as a series of thematic studies.(See Chapter 2 for further details)

At a regional level this study will inform theongoing regional partnership in addressing itsapproach to climate change adaptation in theregion. The role of regional stakeholders hasbeen of crucial importance in developing thiswork. A Steering Group was created for thisstudy, co-ordinated by the SW Regional Office ofthe Environment Agency, and includingrepresentatives of all levels of government, thebusiness community and NGOs. This provided aroute to funding (from the South West RegionalDevelopment Agency [SWRDA] and otherregional organisations) which has made the studypossible.

In this way the Scoping Study responds to theRegional Sustainable Development Frameworkfor the South West of England which states that‘The basis for addressing climate change andpromoting sustainable development has to be agood understanding and a sound informationbase’.

Scope of Study

The geographic boundaries are limited to theSouth West Region, as operated by the SouthWest Regional Development Agency (SWRDA)and the Government Office for the South west(GOSW). The study area therefore contains thecounties and unitary authority areas of: Cornwalland the Isles of Scilly, Devon, Plymouth andTorbay, Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole,Somerset, Swindon and Wiltshire, SouthGloucestershire, Bristol, Bath and North EastSomerset, North Somerset and Gloucestershire.(see Figure 1.1)


M4

M5

SwindonSwindonSwindonSwindonSwindonSwindonSwindonSwindonSwindonBathBathBathBathBathBathBathBathBath

CheltenhamGloucesterGloucesterGloucesterGloucesterGloucesterGloucesterGloucesterGloucesterGloucester

SalisburySalisburySalisburySalisburySalisburySalisburySalisburySalisburySalisbury

BournemouthDorchesterDorchesterDorchesterDorchesterDorchesterDorchesterDorchesterDorchesterDorchesterExeterExeterExeterExeterExeterExeterExeterExeterExeter

TauntonTauntonTauntonTauntonTauntonTauntonTauntonTauntonTauntonBarnstapleBarnstapleBarnstapleBarnstapleBarnstapleBarnstapleBarnstapleBarnstapleBarnstaple

BristolBristolBristolBristolBristolBristolBristolBristolBristol

Plymouth

Penzance

TruroTruroTruroTruroTruroTruroTruroTruroTruro50 (kilometers

0 25

KeyTown

Major River

Motorway

Coastal/County Boundary

Figure 1.1Map of South West Region which defines the area of study

Despite the tight regional focus, the studyrecognises a wider geographic context.

Firstly, the potential impacts of climate change areeven more serious in other parts of the world.Sea level rises in places such as Bangladeshcould increase global migration to levels that havenot yet been contemplated. Increases intemperatures in Mediterranean tourist centres(such as Greece) could make such places lessattractive as resorts. These and similar impactsmay have significant consequences for the SouthWest itself.

Secondly, the optimal level at which adaptationresponses should be made will also vary spatially.For example, responses identified as necessaryfor the South West Region and requiring changesin Building Regulations will need addressing at anational level. Other responses may be bestmanaged at regional or sub-regional levels.

It is acknowledged that issues of adaptation toclimate change form part of a much wider‘sustainability’ agenda, especially with regard tothe mitigation of potential climate change effectsthrough strategies for (eg.) reducing greenhousegas emissions. Nevertheless, it is not possiblewithin the scope of this study to give explicitconsideration to aspects of mitigation. The focusis on impacts and adaptation. This being said,mitigation issues will be taken into account when

considering adaptation strategies, so that anyemerging proposals for responding to predictedchanges in climate do not themselves makeclimate conditions worse by ignoring mitigationimplications. In addition it is most likely thatadaptation responses (for example by LocalAuthorities) will form part of a wider climatechange or sustainability strategy.

Structure of Report

The study has been divided into main sections asindicated below:

• Other studies on Climate Change Impacts• Global Climate Change Context.• South West Regional Context.• South West Regional Climate Change• Impact Domain Reports• Conclusions and Recommendations

Other studies that have been undertaken in theUK are briefly reported in a section on UKresearch activity. (Chapter 2)

Global Climate Change Context: This part of thestudy is based upon existing data recentlypublished on climate change at a global scale. Ithighlights the observable trends in climatechange, particularly over the last century; reportson the natural cycles in climate, the calculated


anthropogenic contributions to climate change,and predictions for changes in the climate overthe coming century. It reviews the potentialimpacts of climate change at a global scale, anddistinguishes between adaptation and mitigationresponses to these impacts. UK initiatives onclimate change are tracked mainly through thework of UKCIP. (Chapter 3)

South West Regional Context: This part of thestudy briefly describes the region in terms of itsoverall physical attributes, and its social,economic and cultural activity. Furtherinformation on specific sectors is provided at thebeginning of each domain report. (Chapter 4)

South West Regional Climate Change: Thischapter provides an analysis of climate change inthe region, including an account of historic trends,a picture of current climatic conditions and futureclimate scenarios for the region. The historic andcontemporary data is drawn from Met Office andsimilar records held within the region. Thescenarios make use of the data recently publishedby UKCIP for the thirty year periods around the2020’s, the 2050’s, and the 2080’s. (Chapter 5)

Impact Domain Reports: This section reports onthe perspectives of a wide range of stakeholderswithin the region. Various ‘impact domains’ havebeen selected based upon an analysis of othersimilar studies. These have been classified intothree main groups:

• Natural Environment Domains (Chap 6)• Society and Infrastructure Domains (Chap 7)• Business Domains (Chap 8)

Each domain has been the subject of a focussedstudy providing information on context, keyissues, opportunities and challenges presented bydifferent climate variables, and suggestions forthe way forward. Some domain reports are ableto include information on: data availability,perceived significance of stakeholders, andpotential adaptation responses. (Further detail onthe methodology, sources of information etc forthese sections is available in Annex 2 and Annex3)

In addition, the implications for cross-sectoralissues are explored by considering a variety ofspatial zones including: coastal environments;urban environments; and rural environments.These are assessed through case studies ofsingle areas chosen as representative of each ofthe three environments. (Chapter 9)

Local authorities have been identified asimportant agencies in responding to climatechange. A further chapter briefly identifies therange of issues that fall within the responsibility oflocal authorities and indicates a variety ofresponses. (Chapter 10)

A simple Summary of the findings of the study isto be found in Chapter 11.

The section on Recommendations is mainly areview of management issues, and again wasreliant on contact with stakeholders; principallythose public, private and voluntary agenciesoperating at a regional level, and with localgovernment at county, unitary and district levels.The main purpose here is to draw togetherrecommendations for action for thosestakeholders with a regional remit, and others,especially local authorities, with a significant roleto play, at sub-regional levels. (Chapter 12)

Priorities for research are identified in Chapter 13.

A brief set of conclusions is provided in Chapter14.

Annexes: Annexes include bibliographies, lists ofthose contributing to the report through thecompletion of questionnaires, participation ininterviews and workshops, a glossary of terms,and an explanation of the methodology used forthe impact domain reports.

Outputs of the Study

The outcomes of the Scoping Study are availablein both paper and electronic format. The fullTechnical Report (this document) is available as apaper copy and can be accessed on the web atthe following address: www.ourSouthWest. Ashorter version (24 pages) is also available as aSummary Report.


CHAPTER 2

OTHER RESEARCH (ETC.) ONCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

This section is largely based upon materialpublished on the UKCIP website atwww.ukcip.org.uk.

Global Studies

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) is acknowledged as the definitive, globalauthority on all aspects of climate change. It wasset up by the World Meteorological Organisationand the United Nations Environment Programmein 1988 to assess scientific and socio-economicinformation on climate change and its impacts andto advise the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change. The IPCCrepresents over 1000 top scientists from the fieldof climate change research. Its work is endorsedby 99 governments and many more independent,scientific and government reviewers.

There is a long list of IPCC publications (many ofwhich are available on the Internet) which provideauthoritative scenarios for global climate change,a summary of potential impacts across the planet,and a range of adaptation responses. In its ThirdAssessment Report (known as TAR) the IPCCasserts that:

(a) climate change is occurring;

(b) the present climate is significantly warmerthan at the beginning of the 20th Century;

(c) ‘business-as-usual’ will lead to continuedmajor additions of greenhouse gases toatmosphere that will exacerbate so-called‘global warming’.

The TAR suggests that global temperatures couldrise by between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees C by the endof this century, and argues that most of theobserved warming over the last 50 years is due tohuman activities.

(See Chapter 3 for more detailed consideration ofglobal climate change)

UK Initiatives

The UK government makes a clear distinctionbetween “mitigation” and “adaptation” in dealingwith these two aspects of climate change.

UKCIP was established in 1997 to establish aresearch framework for integrating assessmentsof climate change impacts in the UK and toprovide support to organisations to undertake

their own assessments of the impacts of climatechange so that they can prepare appropriateresponses. It is supported by DEFRA to provideservices, data and scenarios to partnerorganisations. Responsibility for dealing with themitigation of climate change rests within DEFRA.

Summary of Other UK Studies

UKCIP supports a number of studies that attemptto identify in more detail how climate change willimpact on the UK. Through its co-ordinating andadvisory role, and the use of common researchtools and data, UKCIP aims to bring studiestogether to achieve an integrated assessment ofclimate change impacts in the UK. A summary ofthe work carried out in UKCIP's first three years ofoperation can be found in the report: "ClimateChange: Assessing the impacts - identifyingresponses”, UKCIP, 2000.

UK Regional Studies

Amongst the main research outputs that havebeen orchestrated by UKCIP is the series ofregional scoping studies, of which this South Weststudy forms a part. The publication dates areindicated below.

Region Progress

North West November 1998Scotland December 1999Northern Ireland March 2002North East PendingYorkshire & Humberside Summer 2002East Midlands August 2000East of England OngoingWest Midlands OngoingWales February 2000London October 2002South East November 1999

Figure 2.1Publication Dates of Regional Scoping Studies

UK Sectoral Studies

A number of sectoral studies has beenundertaken and are ongoing under the UKCIPumbrella. Biodiversity, or nature, featuresstrongly in these studies at present, as nationalorganisations have realised the vulnerability of thenatural environment and the need for furtherresearch. The main studies either completed orongoing include the following.

DEFRA Biodiversity Review

This project, funded by DEFRA (DETR and MAFFat the time), provides a review of the impacts ofclimate change on biodiversity habitats andspecies in the UK and offers advice on theimplications for UK nature conservation policy.Climate Change and Nature Conservation inBritain and Ireland MONARCH

http://www.ipcc.ch/


The MONARCH study was commissioned toprovide quantitative evidence to complement thebiodiversity assessments already carried outunder UKCIP. This has been achieved throughthe development of complex computerisedmodels, which are able to estimate changes inspecies distribution under climate changeconditions.

Gardens

A Scoping Study provides an overview of the bestcurrent information on the potential impacts thatclimate change may have on UK gardens andgarden plants. It also identifies and prioritises keyinformation gaps and defines a future researchagenda. Publication was in November 2002.

Health

The Department of Health funded a study into theimpacts of climate change on health in the UK,the final version of which was published in thesummer of 2002. The report concluded thatclimate change would have some significanteffects on health, but that early action couldmitigate many of the possible negative effects.

Water Demand

DEFRA has commissioned a study to evaluatethe impact of climate change on the demand forwater in England and Wales. The research willcover all aspects of water demand with a specialfocus on sectors that are most sensitive to climatechange, namely agriculture, garden watering, andleisure.

Marine EnvironmentMarine Biodiversity and Climate Change(MarClim) is a four-year study, investigating howinter-tidal species across Britain and Ireland haveresponded to climate changes over the last 50years, and will use the UKCIP scenarios toexplore future models.

Built EnvironmentThe Engineering & Physical Sciences ResearchCouncil (EPSRC) is sponsoring multidisciplinaryresearch consortia to undertake studies of thepotential impacts of climate change on the builtenvironment in the UK in the 21st Century.Studies addressing climate change impacts onurban areas, drainage, historic buildings andenergy infrastructure, and studies addressing riskand further work on the UKCIP climate scenarios,are due to start in April 2003.

RegIS

The RegIS study forms the first integratedassessment to investigate the impacts of climateand socio-economic change, using computermodelling and stakeholder discussion. The studyfocused upon two regions in the UK, East Angliaand the North West of England.

South West Region Initiatives

In October 1999, the Climatic ChallengeConference was held in Cornwall to address theimpacts and opportunities of climate change forthe economy of the South West region. Theconference was aimed at key representatives ofthe public and private sectors. The Centre forClimate Change Impact Forecasting (C-CLIF), apartnership of three academic institutions, wasestablished as a direct result of the conference.Conference outcomes were disseminated toSmall- and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) inCornwall, Devon, Somerset and the Isles of Scillythrough a series of workshops held throughout2000.

On Jan 31st 2001 the Cheltenham ClimateChange Forum was held to develop themesalready introduced at the Climatic Challengeconference. The Forum was a high profile event,addressing an audience drawn from industry,commerce, regional and local policy makers,academics and representatives of environmentalagencies. A major rationale for the meeting wasto provide a springboard to establish regionalstudies to be supported by UKCIP. As a result ofthese initiatives the supportive partnership andfunding were created in order to undertake thisScoping Study.

Available Data and Tools

As well as the recently published (UKCIP02)climate scenarios upon which this Scoping Studyis based, UKCIP has also prepared a range oftools for climate impacts research. These include:socio-economic scenarios, costing methodology(forthcoming) and a risk assessment framework.


CHAPTER 3

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOSAND IMPACTS FOR PLANETEARTH AS A CONTEXT FOR SWSTUDIES

This chapter is based upon a variety of sources butlargely upon material developed and published bythe IPCC. The latest relevant publication is “IPCCThird Assessment Report – Climate Change, 2001”and is available at http://www.ipcc.ch/.

“Global Warming”

Interest in “global warming” is now prevalentamongst a wide range of scientists, politicians,economists and some industrialists. Most attentionhas focussed on the present and continuing effectsupon climate of both domestic and industrial fueluse, and of other processes. These include agro-environmental processes (such as the burning oftropical forests and introduction of livestock grazing)and industrial processes (such as the use andescape of halocarbons). These lead to the releaseinto the atmosphere of so-called “greenhouse”gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane(CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and chlorofluorocarbons(CFCs). The 1997 Kyoto Protocol seeks to regulatethese and three other trace gases, namelyhydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons(PFCs), and sulphur hexafluorane (SF6).

Historically, carbon dioxide has been the mostimportant “greenhouse gas”, but all are now seenas potentially contributing to global warming, suchthat other gases are projected to contribute, directly,about the same amount to potential global warmingover the next 60 years as carbon dioxide.

In 1996 IPCC pronounced that "...the balance ofevidence suggests that there is a discernible humaninfluence on global climate". This was seen bymany as confirmation of the already widespreadacceptance amongst environmental campaigningorganisations that not only is there a discerniblehuman effect upon climate, but that the effect willboth accelerate and continue into the next centuryuntil well after greenhouse gas emissions arestabilised. The IPCC Third Assessment Report in2001 reinforced that message, and stated “ there isnew and stronger evidence that most of theobserved warming over the last fifty years isattributable to human activity”.

Climate Defined

'Climate' is defined as the total experience ofweather at any place, over some period of time.The usual comparative period for climate statisticsis thirty consecutive years of records, and these areadvanced a decade at a time: for example, theWorld Meteorological Office has been using theyears 1961-1990 as their baseline (rather than, say,

1967-1996). These are the statistics thatmeteorologists use when making daily comparisonsfrom ‘normal’. The period 1961-1990 is also thebaseline against which future climate scenarios arecompared.

IPCC Scenarios and Climate ChangePredictions

Computer simulation models can demonstrate themagnitude and spatial variation of the changes thatmight be expected in future climate. The globalmodels can produce scenarios for future globaltemperatures and precipitation (rainfall). It is alsopossible to calculate the sea-level rise anticipatedas a result of the thermal expansion of the oceansand the melting of ice on land. Globally, the IPCCpredicts a rise in sea level of perhaps half to three-quarters of a metre for the mid 21st century, whilethe UKCIP predict 9-69cm by the 2080’s, and 7-36cm by the 2050’s. When the models are appliedat a national or regional level, other aspects ofclimate can be presented, such as the number ofdays of frost that might be expected in a year.

The figures below, (Figures 3.1 and 3.2) producedby one of the UK Met Office models, show first thechange in mean annual surface air temperature thatmight be anticipated globally for the late 21st

century, and secondly the equivalent change inprecipitation.

The family of greenhouse gas emissions scenariosused to produce the UKCIP02 climate changescenarios covers the range of 35 scenarios outlinedby the IPCC. The climate change predictions thatarise from these scenarios include the changealready in-built due to past and present emissions(the “commitment to future warming”) as well as thechange due to future greenhouse gas production.

The following predictions are made by IPCC (TAR,2001) and are generalised across a range ofemissions scenarios.

In all of the IPCC reports, provisional terms (likely,unlikely, very likely etc.) are tightly defined in termsof probability. The table below (Table 3.1) indicatesthe statistical chances of a result being true, withreference to the linguistic descriptions that areused.

Provisional term Probability

Virtually certain > 99% chanceVery likely 90-99% chanceLikely 66-90% chanceMedium likelihood 33-66% chanceUnlikely 10-33% chanceVery unlikely 1-10% chanceExceptionally unlikely < 1% chance

Table 3.1Degrees of statistical probability associated withprovisional terms


Temperature

• The globally averaged surface temperature isprojected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8oC over theperiod 1990-2100.

• The projected warming is much larger than theobserved changes during the 20th century and isvery likely to be without precedent during thelast 10,000 years, based on palaeoclimatic data.

• Based on recent global model simulations it isvery likely that nearly all land areas will warmmore rapidly than the global average,particularly those at northern latitudes in thecold season.

Figure 3.1Change in annual average temperature for the 2080speriod, relative to 1961-1990, for the HadCM3 ensemble-average under an A2 forcing scenario, (source: UKCIP02Scientific Report, April 2002)

Precipitation

• Based on global model simulations and for awide range of scenarios, global average watervapour concentrations and precipitation areprojected to increase during the 21st century.

Figure 3.2Change in annual average precipitation for the 2080s period,relative to 1961-1990, for the HadCM3 ensemble-averageunder an A2 forcing scenario, (source: UKCIP02 ScientificReport, April 2002)

Monsoons

• It is likely that warming associated withincreasing greenhouse concentrations willcause an increase in the variability of Asiansummer monsoon precipitation.

Thermohaline circulation (the Gulf Stream)

• Most models show weakening of the oceanthermohaline circulation, leading to a reductionof the heat transport into high latitudes of theNorthern Hemisphere. This modelled oceancooling does not counterbalance the regionalwarming over Europe caused by greenhousegas emissions. Although thermohalinecirculation could ultimately shut down, modelsdo not predict this for the 21st century.Nevertheless it remains a long-term potentialthreat.

Snow and Ice

• Northern Hemisphere snow cover and sea-iceextent are projected to decrease further.

• Glaciers and ice caps are projected to continuetheir widespread retreat during the 21st Century.(However, it should be noted additionally that insome areas such as south-central Norway,increased precipitation may result in localglacier advance).

• The Antarctic ice sheet is likely to gain massbecause of greater precipitation, while theGreenland ice sheet is likely to lose massbecause the increase in melting will exceed theprecipitation increase.

• It is thought very unlikely that the west Antarcticice sheet will collapse in the 21st century,although such a scenario may occur especiallyfor longer time-scale projections.

Sea level

• Global mean sea level is projected to rise by0.09 to 0.88 metres between 1990 and 2100,primarily as a result of thermal expansion of theoceans, with a secondary but significant inputfrom glacial melt water.


Confidence in observedchanges(latter half of 20th century)

Changes in Phenomenon Confidence in projected changes(during the 21st century)

Likely Higher maximum temperatures andmore hot days over nearly all landareas

Very Likely

Very Likely Higher minimum temperatures,fewer cold days and frost days overnearly all land areas

Very Likely

Very Likely Reduced diurnal temperature rangeover most land areas

Very Likely

Likely, over many areas Increase of heat index over landareas

Very Likely, over most areas

Likely, over many NorthernHemisphere mid–high latitudeareas

More intense precipitation events Very Likely, over many areas

Likely, in a few areas Increased summer continentaldrying and associated risk ofdrought

Likely, over most mid-latitudecontinental areas (lack of consistentprojections in other areas).

Not observed in the fewanalyses available

Increase in tropical cyclone peakwind intensities

Likely, over some areas

Insufficient data forassessment

Increase in tropical cyclone meanand peak precipitation intensities

Likely, over some areas

Table 3.2Confidence levels of observed and predicted data for different climatic phenomena

Global Climate Change Impacts

The sensitivity, adaptive capacity, andvulnerability of natural and human systems toclimatic change, and the potential consequencesof climate change, have been assessed in theThird Assessment Report (TAR) of WorkingGroup II of the IPCC, Climate Change 2001:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (McCarthyet al., 2001).

Whilst the rapidity and magnitude of the projectedchanges may be comparatively limited, they maybe occurring in a world more heavily populated,and living closer to its limits, than ever before.Heavily populated coastal regions of south-eastAsia, for example, may be affectedcatastrophically from increased cyclonic activitysuperimposed on a rising sea-level. Thus, anemergent view from the IPCC report is that thosein the ‘developing’ world are the most vulnerableto projected climate change. The vulnerability,however, is clearly not confined to developingregions, but is potentially closer to home. Westernpopulations may be vulnerable in terms of theirinfrastructural and technological reliances.Climate changes of magnitudes tolerated by moremobile and flexible societies of the past may posegreater threats to societies of the 21st century.

The TAR report on impacts, adaptation andvulnerability takes both sectoral and regionalapproaches to investigating the impacts of climate

change. In all instances it emphasises the needfor adaptation and response to climate change, inaddition to adopting mitigation strategies. Assuch, it mirrors the UKCIP approach and that ofthis Scoping Study. A detailed review of regionalfactors at a global scale is reported in the TAR. Itis clear that one of the potential societal impactsof climate change is an acceleration of trans-boundary emigration currently driven largely bypolitical, economic and humanitarian factors. Thuslocal consequences of climate change may arisefrom impacts far removed in other regions of theworld.

Natural System Vulnerability

Natural systems can be especially vulnerable toclimate changes due to their limited adaptivecapacity, and some systems may undergosignificant and irreversible change. Naturalsystems at risk include glaciers, coral reefs andatolls, mangroves, boreal and tropical forest, polarand alpine ecosystems, prairie wetlands, andremnant native grasslands. Whilst some speciesmay increase their range or population, climatechange will increase existing risks of extinctionand loss of biodiversity. Rates and magnitudes ofbiodiversity losses have a well-established link torates of climate change.


Human System Vulnerability

Human systems that are sensitive to climatechange include water resources; agriculture(especially food security) and forestry; coastalzones and marine systems (fisheries); humansettlements; energy and industry; insurance andother financial services; and human health. Thevulnerability of these systems varies withgeographical location, time, and social, economic,and environmental conditions.

Projected Impacts

In addition to highlighting the ‘negative’ impacts ofclimate change, the TAR also illustrates thepotential local and regional benefits of suchchange. Projected adverse impacts based onmodels and other studies include:

• A general reduction in potential crop yieldsin most tropical and sub-tropical regions formost projected increases in temperature.

• A general reduction, with some variation, inpotential crop yields in most regions in mid-latitudes for increases in annual averagetemperature of more than a few ºC.

• Decreased water availability for populationsin many water-scarce regions, particularly inthe sub-tropics.

• An increase in the number of peopleexposed to vector-borne disease (e.g.malaria) and water-borne diseases (e.g.cholera), and an increase in heat stressmortality.

• A widespread increase in the risk of floodingfor many human settlements (tens of millionsof inhabitants in settlements studies) fromboth increased heavy precipitation eventsand sea-level rise.

• Increased energy demand for space cooling,owing to higher summer temperatures.

Potential beneficial impacts based on models andother studies include:

• Increased potential crop yields in someregions of the mid-latitudes for increases intemperature of less than a few ºC.

• A potential increase in the global timbersupply from appropriately managed forests.

• Increased water availability for populations insome water-scarce regions – for example,parts of Southeast Asia.

• Reduced winter mortality in mid- and high-latitudes.

• Reduced energy demand for space heatingowing to higher winter temperatures.

Global Impacts on South West Region

The data and scenarios outlined above provide aglobal context for understanding the potentialchanges in the climate of the South West Regionof the UK. As well as setting the climate context itis also a reminder that significant climate changeconsequences are being predicted for other partsof the world. Some of these consequences, mayhave global implications for the South West regionof the UK, for example in terms of inmigration,and patterns of tourism and trade.


CHAPTER 4

THE SOUTH WEST REGION

This section is largely based upon materialdeveloped and published by the SWRDA in its theState of the Region section of the RegionalStrategy for the South West of England 2000-2010 (SWRDA 2000) and later revisions.

The South West has a land area of 23,829 km2

and is the largest of the English regions(accounting for 15% of England) More than twothirds (70%) of this land area is devoted toagriculture, as is the overall figure for the UK. Theland-based industries play a major role inmaintaining and preserving the region’s distinctiveand varied countryside and landscape. Thepopulation of 4.9 million people live at averagedensities of 206 persons/sq km (16% below theUK average but much higher than the EUaverage). The region is predominantly rural buthas a number of significant urban centres. Theseurban and rural locations combine to provide adiverse economic base for the region, whilecreating distinct sub-regional disparities.

The coastline extends to 1000km and providessome of the most popular UK destinations forlong- and short-break holidays. Other, non-coastal attractions, particularly the built andnatural heritage, feature strongly in the region.

The environment of the South West is one of themost rich and diverse in the UK. Traditionally,industry and business have often seen theenvironment as a constraint upon economicdevelopment. There is increasing recognition thatthe high quality environment plays a significantrole in attracting people to live in, work in and visitthe region and provides an important driver foreconomic development and regeneration.

The environment already makes a significantcontribution to employment and economic output.It has been estimated that economic activityrelated to the environment sustains around100,000 jobs in the South West and £1.6 billion toGDP. This equates to over 4% of the region’semployment and 3% of GDP.

The South West is a growing region. The region’seconomic performance over the last two decadeshas outstripped national averages, notably interms of GDP and employment growth. In 1998,the South West accounted for 7.8% of the nation’sGDP. Over the 1991-1998 period, the rate ofgrowth in the South West's regional GDP hasbeen the fourth greatest of all the UK regions;higher than that for Great Britain as a whole.GDP per head in the region consistently runs ataround 91% of the national level. While GDP perhead in the South West has remained relativelystatic, its performance relative to other UK regionshas improved.

Avon makes the largest contribution to theregion’s GDP at 24% - Bristol accounts for 11.5%.Wiltshire, especially Swindon Unitary Authority(UA), former Avon, and Gloucestershire whichhave the highest levels of GDP per head, are theonly counties within the region to achieve levels ofGDP above the national average. Somerset,Dorset and Devon have levels of GDP varyingbetween 80% and 90% of the national average.Cornwall has experienced little growth in GDP perhead over the past two decades and has thelowest level of GDP at levels 25% below theregional average, 29% lower than the nationalaverage. It has the lowest contribution to regionalGDP at 7.3%.

The principal urban centres of the region areBristol, Cheltenham, Gloucester, Swindon, Exeter,Plymouth, Bournemouth and Poole, Christchurch,Torbay and Weymouth and Portland. Togetherthese urban areas contain over 40% of allemployment in the region and house 35% of theregion’s population. Taunton, though not an urbandistrict in its own right, is also an important centre.

The urban centres are the locations of theregion’s airports (except Newquay) and majorports. As principal service and entertainmentcentres they serve a much wider area and mayattract people from up to 100 miles away.

Accessible rural areas have particularconcentrations of employment in the hi-tech andknowledge clusters. Remote rural parts of theSouth West have experienced slower growth thanaccessible areas. These areas also have thelowest wages and experience significant levels ofseasonal unemployment, partly due to theimportance of the agriculture and tourism sectors.

There is a total of 203,900 businessestablishments in the South West, the majority(85.4%) employing less than 10 people. Only1.3% of workplaces employ more than 100 peoplein the South West, slightly less than nationally.Although medium and large workplaces(employing 25 or more people) are heavilyoutnumbered by small workplaces, the formerprovide the bulk of employment in the SouthWest. Most jobs in the South West are providedby medium and large workplaces, but the regionhas few large businesses, host to only two of thetop 100 companies in the UK.

The South West has been successful in attractinginward investors, particularly to centres in the eastof the region. These firms are concentrated in hi-tech, research, automotive, plastics and foodprocessing clusters. Regionally, tourism is a keysector in the South West economy, attractingsome 21m visitors each year and contributingaround 6.6% (£3.5bn) of the region’s GDP.

South West Climate Change Impacts Scoping Study Page 5.1

CHAPTER 5

CLIMATE IN THE SOUTHWEST

Introduction

The climate for the South West is reported herein two sections:

1. Historical Climate in the Region;2. Future Climate in the Region.

The report on the historical climate is basedupon three sources: climate data for the period1961-1990 prepared for UKCIP02 and derivedfrom sets archived at the UK MeteorologicalOffice; modelled baseline data for the sameperiod; and observed trends of historicalmeteorological data for two locations in theregion, Plymouth and Cheltenham.

The report on the future climate for the regionis based upon climate scenarios prepared forUKCIP02 for a range of different emissionsscenarios for three time periods: around the2020s, around the 2050s and around the2080s. The scenarios compare the modelledclimate for these periods with the modelledclimate baseline period 1961-1990, for a rangeof climate variables. (eg temperature,precipitation)

Historical Climate

Observed Climate 1961-1990

These observed data derive from sets ofobserved data which are archived at the UKMeteorological Office. The full set comprises26 weather variables or derivatives (see Figure5.1 below). It can be accessed as datafilesfrom the UK Met Office (atwww.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/obsdata/ukcip/index.html).

The future climate scenarios for the Southwestreferred to in this report compare the potentialfuture climate for a locality with the modelledclimate over the period 1961-1990 for the samelocality. So, the historic data for 1961 to 1990provides a baseline against which futureclimate can be reported.

Clearly, certain of these variables have moreparticular relevance for some ‘impact domains’in the region than do others. For example, thelength of the Annual Growing Season is ofparticular relevance for agriculture in theregion. For most people, however, simpletemperature or rainfall data will have moreimmediate significance, and so it is these datathat are presented in the summary maps.

The Observed UK Climate Data Set(1961-90)Climate Variables Reported

1 Monthly Mean Air Temperature2 Monthly Mean Maximum Temperature3 Monthly Mean Minimum Temperature4 No. of days with Frost in month5 Heating Degree Days per month6 Growing Degree Days in month7 Intra-Annual Extreme Temperature Range8 Annual Growing Season Length9 Summer ‘Heat Wave’ Duration10 Winter ‘Heat Wave’ Duration11 Summer ‘Cold Wave’ Duration12 Winter ‘Cold Wave’ Duration13 Monthly Mean Vapour Pressure14 Monthly Mean Wind Speed (from AD 1960)15 Monthly Mean Sea Level Pressure16 Monthly Hours of Bright Sunshine17 Monthly Total Precipitation18 Rain Days in month19 Wet Days in month20 Snow Days in month21 Max. No. of Consecutive Dry Days in a Year22 Greatest 5-day Precipitation Total in a Year23 Simple Daily Intensity on Raindays per Year24 Number of Days with Snow Cover25 Monthly Mean Cloud Cover26 Number of days with Ground Frost

Figure 5.1The Observed UK Climate Data Set (1961-90)List of Climate Variables Reported

For the purposes of this study the data havebeen extracted for four of these climatevariables: daily mean temperature, maximumtemperature; total daily precipitation; windspeed at 10 metres. (These are reported in thefigures below)

One of the significant features of the baselinedata is the way in which variability within theregion is revealed for different aspects of theweather. Although the data are only reportedwithin a 50 kilometre square grid it is stillpossible to observe: the difference betweenclimates that are essentially maritime and thosethat are more land based; variability from northto south and from east to west; and theinfluence of topography, particularly the heightand exposure of locations such as Exmoor andDartmoor.

This reinforces the understanding that theregion is very diverse, and highlights theimportance of taking account of location withinthe region when considering potential changesin climate and consequential impacts.


20181614121086

16141210864

degrees Cdegrees C

(mm/month)

1801401006020

Modelled baseline data for the south-west for the period

1961 to 1990 showing annual and seasonal data

on a 50km grid



on a 50km grid



on a 50km grid



on a 50km gridAnnual Annual Annual Annual

Winter Winter Winter Winter

Spring Spring Spring Spring

Summer Summer Summer Summer

Autumn Autumn Autumn Autumn

Wind1961 - 1990

Maximum Temperature1961 - 1990

Mean Temperature 1961 - 1990

Precipitation 1961 - 1990

10864

(m/s)

Figure 5.2Four sets of maps showing modelled baseline data for 4 climate variables (Wind, MaximumTemperature, Mean Temperature, Precipitation) for the period 1961-1990 for Annual, Winter, Spring,Summer and Autumn on a 50km square grid (UKCIP02).


Historical Climate

Observed Local Trends

(Analysis of Meteorological Data undertaken byDr Len Wood, University of Plymouth)

Past climate records in the South West wereanalysed to reveal how the region’s climate haschanged in recent times. This section considershistorical meteorological data for two urbanlocations at opposite ‘ends’ of the region: forPlymouth (Devon) and for Cheltenham(Gloucestershire).

The longest temperature series in the SouthWest is for Plymouth where records have beenkept since 1874.

A warming trend of 0.8OC can be seen inPlymouth over the last 125 years.

Annual mean temperatures show a largevariability (Figure 5.3). A warming trend ofabout 0.8 OC from the 1880s to 1940s isevident, followed by a cooling period until the1960s. The last two decades have shown awarming of 0.6 OC, with a quite rapid return tothe annual mean temperatures of the 1940s.Overall, a warming trend of 0.5 OC can be seenin Plymouth over the last 125 years. Four of theten warmest years within the 125-year record inPlymouth have occurred since 1989 (1989,1990, 1995, 1999).

Seven of the ten warmest years within the60-year temperature record in Cheltenhamhave occurred since 1989.

Cheltenham's temperature record is only from1930 (Figure 5.4) but shows a warming trend of1OC over the last 60 years with annual meantemperatures higher today than they were inthe 1940s. Seven of the ten warmest yearswithin the 60-year record in Cheltenham haveoccurred since 1989 (1989, 1990, 1994, 1995,1997, 1998, 1999).

Cheltenham's temperature records show awarming trend of 1OC over the last 60 yearswith annual mean temperatures highertoday than they were in the 1940s.

Seasonal temperature records in Plymouth,which are shown in Figure 5.5, indicate thatwinter (DJF) mean temperatures have beenmore variable than summer (JJA) meantemperatures over the period 1874-2001. Early

in the record the trend shows winters becomingwarmer, and summers cooler up to the turn ofthe century. There then follows a cooling trendfor winters from the 1920s to 1960s, followedby a warming in recent decades. Summertemperatures do not show such a markedwarming in recent decades, which indicatesthat the annual mean temperature rise found atPlymouth results from milder winters.

Figure 5.6 shows the sea surface temperatureanomalies (departures from the 1961-90average) in the Southwest Approaches overthe period 1880 to 2001. The record is highlyvariable and no long-term trends are evident.However, all anomalies since 1995 have beenpositive, which may indicate a trend towardswarmer waters.

Records of annual rainfall are available from1874-2001 in Plymouth (Figure 5.7) and from1930-1999 in Cheltenham (Figure 5.8). Thereis a similar variation in annual rainfall over theperiod 1930-99 for both localities. The trendhas been for an increase in annual rainfallsince the drought of 1975-76. However, thelonger record of Plymouth shows two periods ofsimilarly increasing rainfall at the beginning ofthe century and in the 1920s.

A comparison of summer and winter rainfall atPlymouth (Figure 5.9) shows no long-termtrend to wetter winters and drier summers, orvice versa. Winters have become wetter andsummers drier only over short periods of a fewdecades.


Figure 5.3Annual Mean Temperature in Plymouth 1874-2001

Figure 5.7Annual Rainfall in Plymouth 1874-2001

Figure 5.4Annual Mean Temperature in Cheltenham 1930-1999

Figure 5.8Annual Rainfall in Cheltenham 1930 to 1999

Figure 5.5Summer and Winter Temperatures Compared forPlymouth from 1874 to 2001

Figure 5.9Summer and Winter Temperatures Compared for Plymouthfrom 1874 to 2001

Figure 5.6Sea surface temperature anomalies (departures from the1961-90 av.) in the Southwest approaches 1880 to 2001

Figures 5.3 to 5.9

Various graphs showing historic climate data forCheltenham and Plymouth.


Future Climate

Future Climate in the South West Region

The tables on the following page broadlysummarise the anticipated changes in theregion’s climate over the next 50 to 80 years.Figure 5.10 provides a simple summary byseason of potential climate impacts in theSouth West region for the next 50 to 80 years.Figure 5.11 provides a simple summary byclimate variable of potential climate impacts inthe South West region for the next 50 to 80years.

For more information, see the climate scenariomaps displayed in Figures 5.14, 5.15, 5.16, and5.17.

Future Climate

Data Sources

The climate scenario data for UKCIP02 areavailable as raw data or as national maps fromUKCIP (www.ukcip.org.uk/scenarios/). Theyare based on new global emission scenariospublished in 2000 by the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2000). Forthe purposes of modelling the future climate,four ‘emissions scenarios’ were used in the UKMeteorological Office’s Hadley Centre model togenerate climate scenarios for UKCIP:

• Low Emissions;• Medium-Low Emissions;• Medium-High Emissions;• High Emissions.

The emissions referred to include those of so-called greenhouse gases added to atmosphereas a result of human activities (such as carbondioxide, methane, CFCs, etc.) and believed tohave a warming effect, but also include thosethat may have a counter effect (such asemissions of sulphate aerosols). The differentemissions scenarios are based on assumptionsabout different rates of global economic growth,population size and efficiency of resource use,and form the basis for the latest IPCC reports(see IPCC 2001). Using the Hadley Centremodel, climate scenarios for each of theseemissions scenarios were then generated forthe UK (for UKCIP02) for three thirty-year timeperiods around the 2020s, around the 2050sand around the 2080s. Data have beenprepared for the scenarios using the 15 climatevariables in the table below (Figure 5.9).

The UKCIP02 Scenario DataClimate Variables Reported

1 Maximum temperature2 Minimum temperature3 Daily mean temperature4 Total precipitation rate (mm/day)5 Snowfall rate (mm/day)6 Wind speed at height of 10 m (m/s)7 Relative humidity (%)8 Total cloud in longwave radiation (fraction)9 Net surface longwave flux (Wm-2)10 Net surface shortwave flux (Wm-2)11 Total downward surface shortwave flux

(Wm-2)12 Soil moisture content (mm)13 Mean sea level pressure (mb)14 Surface latent heat flux (Wm-2)15 Specific humidity (g/kg)

Figure 5.9The UKCIP02 Scenario DataList of Climate Variables Reported

Surface Marine Climate

Under the Medium-High Emissions scenario anoverall warming of up to 3 OC is shown in mapsfor around the 2080s for sea surfacetemperatures around the South West.

Future Changes in Sea-level

The Southwest region has a very longcoastline, and the Southwest peninsula issinking relative to the sea (i.e., mean sea levelis increasing more rapidly in SouthwestEngland than estimates of ‘global’ sea-levelrise). For Southwest England regional isostaticsubsidence is of the order of 0.6 mm per year.

The climate changes anticipated in the HadleyCentre models predict additional (global) sea-level rises of between 14 to 18 cm for the2050s, and between 23 cm (Low Emissions)and 36 cm (High Emissions) for the 2080s.The majority of this anticipated rise isgenerated by thermal expansion of oceanwater, with minor additions caused by meltingof land ice (and not, for example, by melting ofAntarctic floating ice, or of Arctic floating ice,which make no change to global sea levels).Melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet couldmake a difference to sea level but in the periodbeyond that encompassed in this report (seeUKCIP, 2002).

The cumulative net sea-level change foraround the 2080s for Southwest Englandtherefore varies from plus 16 cm under a LowEmissions scenario to plus 76 cm under a HighEmissions scenario.


Summary of anticipated climate changes likely to affect the Southwest(adapted from UKCIP02)

Figure 5.10 by SeasonFigure 5.11 by Climate Variable

Season Months Anticipated Climate around 2050s Anticipated Climate around 2080s

Spring (MAM) • Warmer by 1.0 to 2.0oC • Warmer by 1.5 to 3.5oC• Precipitation totals similar to present • Precipitation totals similar to present

Summer (JJA) • Warmer by 1.5 to 3.5oC • Warmer by 2.0 to 5.5oC• Drier by 15 to 30% • Drier by 25 to 55%

Autumn (SON) • Warmer by 1.5 to 3.0oC • Warmer by 2.0 to 5.0oC• Drier by 0 to 10% • Drier by 5 to 15%

Winter (DJF) • Milder by 1.0 to 2.0oC • Milder by 1.5 to 3.5oC• Wetter by 5 to 15% • Wetter by 10 to 30%

• Snowfall decrease by 70 to 90%

Figure 5.10A simple summary by season of potential climate changes in the SW region for the next century

_____________________________________________________________________

Climate Variable Likely change by around the 2050s(from UKCIP02 low and high emissions scenarios)

Temperature • Annual warming 1.0 to 2.5oC (1.5 to 4.5 oC by 2080s)• Greater night-time than day-time warming in winter• Greater warming in summer and autumn than in winter and spring• Greater day-time than night-time warming in summer• Years as warm as 1999 (+1.2oC become more common)

Precipitation • Winters 5 to 15% wetter (10 to 30% wetter by 2080s)• Summers 15 to 30% drier (25 to 50% drier by 2080s)• Heavy rainfall in winter becomes more common• Greater contrast between summer (drier) and winter (wetter) seasons• Winter and spring precipitation becomes more variable• Snowfall totals decrease significantly• Summers as dry as 1995 (37% <average) become more common

Cloud Cover • Reduction in summer and autumn cloud, and an increase in radiation• Small increase in winter cloud cover

Humidity • Specific humidity increases throughout the year• Relative humidity decreases in summer

Soil Moisture • Decreases in summer• Slight increase in winter soil moisture

Storm tracks • Winter depressions become more frequent, including the deepest ones

North AtlanticOscillation

• The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) tends to become more positive in thefuture, giving wet, windy and milder winters

Figure 5.11A simple summary by climate variable of potential climate changes in the SW region for the period around the 2050s


Climate scenarios for the South West

The detailed representation of climatescenarios for the South West is reported on themaps on the following pages. Figure 5.14,Figure 5.15, Figure 5.16, And Figure 5.17.

We have presented data on those climatevariables that probably have most meaning formost people. These are:

• average daily temperature;• maximum daily temperature;• total daily precipitation;• average wind speed.

For illustrative purposes we have used just twoof the emissions scenarios:

• Low emissions;• High emissions.

The maps show the anticipated climate for twoseasons (Summer and Winter) and an annualfigure.

In all cases the maps compare the modelleddata for the three future time periods (aroundthe 2020s, around the 2050s, around the2080s) with modelled data for the baselineperiod of 1961 to 1990.

Maps are presented using a grid of squares at50km x 50km resolution, for grid squares thatare predominantly land.

As displayed, each set of maps can be studiedto reveal the relative influence of four keyparameters:

1. Spatial disposition;2. Seasonal effects;3. Emissions effects;4. 30-year effects.

The climate scenarios are compared withmodelled baseline conditions and show themagnitude of anticipated changes, not absoluteclimate data.

Other Climate Data Issues

Probabilities

Although ‘average’ climate conditions will be ofrelevance for many of the impact domains, thefrequency of ‘extreme’ weather events may beof much greater significance for other domains.For example coastal defences are vulnerable toextreme storm events and extreme floodevents. It is not possible to predict the timing ofthese extreme events. However, someindication of the probability of a specific locality

experiencing certain conditions can bedetermined from a series of probability curves,which are now available. Figure 5.13 belowillustrates the probability of daily rainfallexceeding certain figures. In the observedbaseline period there was a 1% chance of dailyrainfall exceeding 18mm/day in the summermonths. In the period around the 2080s thereis a 1% chance of daily rainfall exceeding12mm/day in the summer months.

Figure 5.13The probability of exceedence of daily precipitationtotals for the Southwest Region. The recent historicbaseline is shown in grey and the scenario formedium–high emissions in the 2080s is shown inblack. The probability expressed is the probability ofthe event being exceeded on any given day forsummer (dashed lines) and winter (solid lines).

Another example from within the regionillustrates the same principle. InGloucestershire, whereas there was a less than10% chance of the daily summer temperaturebeing greater than 30 OC in the baselineperiod, in the 2080s there is an anticipated20% likelihood that the daily maximumtemperature will exceed 30 OC.

Alternative climate scenarios

The future climate data for this report arepredicated upon the climate-scenario datagenerated by the Hadley Centre models forUKCIP. Alternative scenarios, such as ashutdown of the North Atlantic heat conveyor(see Broecker, 1997), which might then plungethe UK back into an ‘ice-age’ climate, are notconsidered likely by UK Meteorological Officescientists (Geoff Jenkins, personalcommunication) and are therefore notconsidered in this report.

For further scientific discussion of thecontribution of carbon dioxide to climatechange, of natural forcing factors in climatechanges, of the use of ‘proxy’ climate data, andof future climate scenarios, readers arereferred to refereed scientific papersreproduced in Chambers & Ogle (2002a, b, c,d). For the basis of the Emissions Scenariosand global climate changes anticipated, seeIPCC (2000, 2001).


Changes in south-west England mean annual, winter and summer temperatures (as compared to the 1961-90 average)

2020s, 2050s and 2080s for the UKCIP02 Low Emissions and High Emissions scenarios.

for the thirty year periods around the

These are modelled results at 50km resolution for grid cells representing areas that are predominantly land.

Low Emissions Scenario


LowEmissions Scenario

HighEmissions Scenario


High Emissions Scenario

2020s

2020s

2020s

2050s

2050s

2050s

2080s

2080s

2080s

Mean TemperatureAnnual

Winter

Summer

5.505.004.504.003.503.002.502.001.501.000.50

change indegrees C

Figure 5.14Changes in South West England Annual, Winter and Summer Average Temperatures as compared tothe 1961-1990 modelled baseline for the thirty year periods around the 2020s, the 2050s and the 2080sfor the UKCIP02 Low Emissions and High Emissions Scenarios. (UKCIP02).These are modelled results at 50km resolution for grid cells representing areas that are predominantlyland.


Changes in south-west England maximum annual, winter and summer temperatures (as compared to the 1961-90 average) for the thirty year periods around the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for the UKCIP02 Low Emissions and High Emissions scenarios.








2020s

2020s

2020s

2050s

2050s

2050s

2080s

2080s

2080s

Maximum TemperatureAnnual

Winter

Summer

6.506.005.505.004.504.003.503.002.502.001.501.000.50

6.506.005.505.004.504.003.503.002.502.001.501.000.50

change indegrees C

change indegrees C

Figure 5.15Changes in South West England Annual, Winter and Summer Maximum Temperatures as compared tothe 1961-1990 modelled baseline for the thirty year periods around the 2020s, the 2050s and the 2080sfor the UKCIP02 Low Emissions and High Emissions Scenarios. (UKCIP02)These are modelled results at 50km resolution for grid cells representing areas that are predominantlyland.


Changes in south-west England average annual, winter and summer precipitation (as compared to the 1961-90 average) for the thirty year periods around the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for the UKCIP02 Low Emissions and High Emissions scenarios.








2020s

2020s

2020s

2050s

2050s

2050s

2080s

2080s

2080s

Average PrecipitationAnnual

Winter

Summer

%change

40353025201510

0-10-20-30-40-50-60

Figure 5.16Changes in South West England Annual, Winter and Summer Precipitation as compared to the 1961-1990 modelled baseline for the thirty-year periods around the 2020s, the 2050s and the 2080s for theUKCIP02 Low Emissions and High Emissions Scenarios. (UKCIP02)These are modelled results at 50km resolution for grid cells representing areas that are predominantlyland.


Changes in south-west England annual, winter and summer wind speeds at 10m (as compared to the 1961-90 average)

2020s, 2050s and 2080s for the UKCIP02 Low Emissions and High Emissions scenarios.

for the thirty year periods around the








2020s

2020s

2020s

2050s

2050s

2050s

2080s

2080s

2080s

Wind SpeedsAnnual

Winter

Summer

4.003.002.001.00

-1.00-3.00-5.00-7.00-9.00

percentagechange

Figure 5.17Changes in South West England Annual, Winter and Summer Wind speeds (at 10metres) as comparedto the 1961-1990 modelled baseline for the thirty-year periods around the 2020s, the 2050s and the2080s for the UKCIP02 Low Emissions and High Emissions Scenarios. (UKCIP02)These are modelled results at 50km resolution for grid cells representing areas that are predominantlyland.

South West Region Climate Change Impacts Scoping Study 6.1

CHAPTER 6

NATURAL ENVIRONMENTDOMAINSLIKELY IMPACTS ANDPOSSIBLE ADAPTATIONRESPONSES

IntroductionThis section considers those domains in theSouth West which fit broadly under the headingof the natural environment. Such headings arenecessarily arbitrary but have proved useful inprogressing and reporting on the study. So,the natural environment section explores thefollowing impact domains:

1. Agriculture and Horticulture

2. Biodiversity and Habitats

3. Coastal Issues

4. Forestry

5. Marine Fisheries

6. Rivers and Riverine Flooding

7. Water Resources.

(For details of the methodology adopted forresearching and reporting on these domainsplease see the Appendix.)

This introductory section precedes the detailedconsideration of each domain and considerssome of the general issues that relate toclimate change and its impact on the naturalenvironment. A brief discussion of the baselinein the region is followed by a summary ofclimate change impacts on the domains and asummary table of recommendations.

BaselineThe ‘natural’ environment of the South Westregion is one of its greatest assets, contributingto the attraction of the region for tourists, andaccounting for some 13% of businessestablishments in the region that are involvedin one or more of the agricultural, hunting,forestry and fishing sectors.

The far South West with its many small coastalresorts is a tourist magnet, especially insummer, although Newquay is fast becoming ayear-round surfing resort. The ‘natural’ beautyof the Cotswolds in the north of the region alsoattracts many tourists, and the Forest of Deanin Gloucestershire is well used by tourists,cyclists and walkers. In all parts of the region,however, most tourism is based on the privatecar, and its widespread use has implications for

the further development of the tourist potentialof the region without compromising its ‘natural’qualities.

The region is blessed with two National Parks,several large AONBs, and long sections ofheritage coastline. The upland areas of theNational Parks — Exmoor and Dartmoor —have largely been deforested for millennia, butDartmoor in particular contains pockets ofprobable former wildwood. There are adisproportionately large number (comparedwith other regions) of sites managed by TheWoodland Trust.

With the exception of the more linear stretchesof protected coastline and some river-valleywoodlands, many of the protected sites fornature conservation in the region are ‘islands’of semi-natural habitat in a sea of agriculturallandscape. However, in south Dorset, urbanencroachment on areas of semi-naturalheathland is perceived as a greater threat thanthat of agriculture.

The South West has a regional BiodiversityAction Plan (unlike most other regions), but itspractitioners in nature conservation arehampered in fully realising the plan by variousperceptual, institutional and practical barriers toplanning for biodiversity in the widercountryside (Watts, 2001).

The whole question of biodiversity in the regionis one that merits further discussion.Biodiversity is usually seen as a quality orattribute that is perceived as being inherently‘good’ (i.e. more is better). Some of theregion’s most prized semi-natural areas are,however, in reality dominated by relatively fewvegetation species (heather moorland andSphagnum bogs being two examples) andhave relatively low vegetational biodiversity. Onthe other hand, other areas have much greatervegetational diversity (such as chalk- orlimestone grassland) but are far from ‘natural’.By that we mean that without continued grazingby livestock and by the (non-native) rabbit,many of these areas would quickly give way toscrub and eventually to woodland, which wouldin reality be the ‘climatic climax’ (final growthstage) ecosystem for most of the region.

Summary of Climate Impacts onDomainsOverall

The natural environment is probably the mostconspicuous and visible receptor for theimpacts of weather. In both public andprofessional realms it is the naturalenvironment that first comes to mind inconsidering the impacts of climate change, forexample through coastal and river flooding,water supply and demand, natural habitats, andpotential changes in agricultural crops. Forthese, and other, reasons it is the aspect that


has received the greatest attention in earlierstudies of climate change impacts.

Biodiversity

With regard to bio-diversity in the region it isclear that changes are already taking place.The range and variety of species will not just beaffected by how we manage protected anddesignated areas but how integrated land useand management strategies can be developed.Difficult choices are required from those withmanagement responsibility. We haveencountered many conservation specialistswho have difficulty in accepting the potentialimpacts of climate change and seek (Canutelike) to hold onto protected species andhabitats in the face of significant changes in theweather. Even during the course of the studywe have observed a change in this attitude,and a much clearer recognition of theinevitability of climate change and the need formore radical responses.

Agriculture

The effects of climate change on agricultureare now broadly understood. These include anextended growing season, the potential for newcrops, an increased requirement for water forsummer irrigation, a potential loss ofcompetitive advantage compared with otherlocations, and reduced die-off of pests anddiseases due to warmer winters. Some of thesechanges are already occurring but within thefarming community generally there is not muchawareness or concern. At present there aremore pressing issues on the agriculturalagenda, including BSE, the aftermath of Footand Mouth disease, the implications of theCurry Report and changes to the CommonAgricultural Policy.

Forestry

Existing, established woodland trees generallyare likely to survive changes in climate but newplanting may require consideration of differentspecies or different nursery regimes.

Coastal Issues

The main impacts on the coast will mainly be todo with coastal erosion and the reduced depthof beaches arising from increased sea levelsand storm surges. Difficult decisions arerequired from those with responsibility for themanagement of coastal defences. Abandon;manage retreat; or defend robustly are themain options in the vulnerable locations. Againan integrated approach is required.

Marine Fisheries

As with agriculture the marine harvest isalready changing but there are again morepressing issues than climate change.Traditional species such as cod are migratingnorth whilst new, more exotic species are nowpresent in southern waters. The other items onthe fisherman’s agenda include the recent

pronouncements on EU quotas (belatedlydesigned to control overfishing), and the needto renegotiate the Common Fishing Policy.These have tended to pre-empt considerationof climate change impacts, despite theempirical evidence that change is alreadyhappening.

Rivers and Flooding

The main impacts associated with rivers andother watercourses concern flooding in itsvarious forms. The recent experience ofriverine flooding is still in the publicconsciousness and the planning system is nowexerting further control on potentialdevelopment in floodplains. Periods of intenserainfall also lead to problems associated withexcessive run-off from the land, and flashflooding in both town and country, largelyassociated with insufficient capacity in existingdrainage. Insurance companies are taking anincreased interest in the financialconsequences of flooding, and throughpremium pricing or new policy exclusions arelikely to determine policy in this area.

Water Resources

Issues of both supply and demand are affectedby increased rainfall in winter but reducedrainfall in summer. As usual storage across theseasons becomes the main problem,particularly when extended periods of summerdrought will increase demand for domestic andagricultural irrigation as well as commercial andindustrial use. The quality of water is also ofconcern as river flows reduce and pollutantsincrease. Nevertheless, the water companiesin the region appear to have a clearunderstanding of the main issues andappropriate adaptation strategies.

Cross-sectoral IssuesThe various domains that are grouped togetherin this part of the report are difficult to separatefrom each other. Indeed, decisions taken inone sector (e.g. agriculture) may have majorrepercussions in others (e.g. biodiversity;floods). A pilot project that has focused on theRiver Parrett in Somerset demonstrates thisinterconnectedness, and shows how importantcan be the role for integrated landmanagement. Decisions taken on upland landuse in a catchment can have major implicationsdownstream, and this is exemplified particularlyduring and immediately after prolonged or high-intensity rainfall events. The role that forestrymight play in intercepting precipitation andmitigating surface run-off, and the role that amore sensitive agriculture can play in providingrefuges and corridors for species, are worthfurther investigation in the context of theclimate scenarios for the South West. (Seefurther discussion of Cross-sectoral Issues inChapter 10.)


Recommendations for Natural EnvironmentDomains

• Encourage the implementation of the SouthWest Biodiversity Action Plan incorporatingthe findings of the Scoping Study.

• Monitor the quantity, frequency and impactsof run-off from agricultural land and uplandsgenerally.

• Make full use of the principles establishedin the MONARCH and REGIS studies intheir potential application in the South West.

• Avoid preconceived and fixated views onwhat should be found living in specificlocations, and alongside what otherspecies, in the face of natural,uncontrollable changes in climate andhabitat.

• Site visits for all relevant sectors to thosemainland European locations whichcurrently experience climates similar tothose anticipated for different parts of theSouth West region.

• Make use of historical and archaeologicalevidence, as well as contemporaryevidence, in considering likely impacts ofclimate change on the natural environment.

• Undertake further research in order toimprove the quality of data with regard toextreme events and probability, particularlywith regard to coastal storms.

• Quantify need for increased summertimeirrigation for South West agriculture andhorticulture.

• Continual monitoring of climate changeimpacts to increase awareness inagricultural sector.

• Review the potential loss of competitiveadvantage for South West agriculture.

• Develop policy responses to addressbiodiversity issues by consideringintegrated land-use management (includingintegrated marine and coastalmanagement).

• Review potential species loss, opportunitiesfor range expansion, and climatic effects onlandscapes in assessing impacts onregional biodiversity.

• Encourage further research into, andmonitoring of, the erosion of coasts andbeaches.

• Rationalise the current split inresponsibilities for flood and coastaldefence and work towards more integratedmanagement.

• Assess the risk of remobilisation of toxicsubstances in riverine/estuarinesediments.

• Renegotiate Common Fisheries Policy inthe light of species loss and relocation.

• Monitor the impacts of changing waterquality/quantity in rivers on habitat andbiodiversity.

• Create a searchable database ofhydrological data on water quality/quantitydata in rivers in the SW Region to beavailable to stakeholders including generalpublic.

• Increase control on future developmentwithin flood risk areas, including increasedstatus for the Environment Agency in thereview of planning applications.

• Manage abstraction licences for watersupply faced with increased demand forirrigation and industrial usage.

• Review impact of longer droughts andmodelled 4% rise in household waterdemand by 2021 on regional water supply.

• Review capacity of sewerage anddrainage infrastructure in the prospect offlash floods, flooding of sewer networks,and rising sea levels.

• Manage increased turbidity, nitratesconcentration and cryptosporidium contentin groundwater during wetter winters.


AGRICULTURE ANDHORTICULTURE DOMAIN

ScopeAgriculture, horticulture and related issues ofcommercial food production and distribution,including management of agricultural land, andpotential diversification of land use.

See Also

Biodiversity, forestry

BackgroundThe South West has a land area of 23,829 km2,

more than two thirds (70%) of which supportsagricultural production, either solely or as partof a multi-functional land useto agriculture. Thisproportion is comparable to the level ofagricultural land use across the UK, though theregion has a higher proportion of semi-naturalgrazing land (moorland, heath) than in otherregions of southern Britain. The land-basedindustries play a major role in maintaining andpreserving the region’s distinctive and variedcountryside and landscape. Because of itspresent climate horticulture forms an importantpart of the agricultural economy. Glasshouseproduction tries to capitalise on this climaticcomparative advantage.

The region has the second largest agriculturalworkforce and proportion of agriculturalemployment in the country, and the thirdhighest share of agricultural output in regionalGDP. Agriculture thus directly sustains 3.7% ofthe regional workforce, generating 2.2% ofregional GDP.

Despite the relatively non-agricultural nature ofregional employment, there are localities withinthe region with comparatively significantproportions of agricultural employment. Thehighest proportion at county level is in Cornwallat 7.3% of the workforce although much higherconcentrations exist at district level.

“Farmers are already changing their buyingpatterns and adapting their practices”

Agricultural Co-operative, Cornwall

The South West has a particularly largeconcentration of businesses in the agriculture,hunting, forestry and fishing sector, accountingfor almost 13% of all business establishmentsin the region. Agriculture in the South West isthus less profitable and more labour intensivethan that in other significantly rural region.Remote rural parts of the South West haveexperienced slower economic growth thanmore accessible areas. These areas have the

lowest wages and experience significant levelsof seasonal unemployment, partly due to theimportance of agriculture in their economy.

Key Issues• Elevated carbon dioxide levels could

enhance growth of some crops.

• Longer growing period offers potential forincreased productivity, but increasedsummer drought may offset this throughreduced growth of crops and forages.

• Potential for novel crops such assunflower, grapevine and bio-fuelsincluding vegetable oils.

• Potential increase in pests and diseases,including species new to the region.

• Increased need for irrigation. This could beoffset by on-farm storage of excess winterprecipitation, but this will require financialoutlay and man-hours in terms of reservoirconstruction.

• Potential for loss of competitive advantagefor South West agriculture to other regionsof the UK.

• Challenges and opportunities for inlandfish farming. (Increased temperatures,reduced oxygen levels, new species).

• Increased heat stress for poultry andlivestock, and also for employees.

• Intense rainfall may increase direct andindirect damage to crops and soils.

• Reduction in water quality due to leachingof nutrients, fertilisers, pesticides etc.

• Areas of agricultural land vulnerable toflooding from sea level rise – e.g.Somerset Levels, low-lying river valleysand coastal areas.

• Damage due to run-off – soil erosion,blockage of drains, damage to rural roadnetwork/field access. Impact on fishspawning streams (silting of gravel beds).

“There is a feeling that ‘it (climate change)might not happen’ which discourages

action”

Source unknown

Specific Climate Issues for the South West

• Flooding risks for the Somerset Levels andother low-lying and coastal areas.


• The risk of the South West losing thecompetitive advantage currently held,particularly in the extreme South West.

• Loss of prime land on the Isles of Scilly dueto sea inundation and sand drift, as well ascoastal erosion.

Risks that have been identified:

• Changing windows of opportunity availablefor land work, which will have effects on soilcondition, compaction and run-off.

• Availability of water at crucial points in cropdevelopment.

• Damage to standing crops by heavyprecipitation, high winds, flash floods etc.

• Increase in pest and disease damage dueto low winter die-off, increased winterhumidity and introduction of alien pestspecies through changing climate and thegrowth of novel crops.

• Worker health and safety issues.

• Sunburn and heat stress in livestock.

• Increased depth of roots due to dryconditions put the nutrients out of reach forsome crops.

• Increased growth of weeds while the land istoo wet to deal with them.

• Flash flooding increases the risk of slurrypollution events.

• Effects of poor land management due tounpredictable weather will have effectsbeyond the reach of the farm itself.

• Some crops currently grown on light soils(e.g. potatoes) may become inappropriatedue to unpredictable weather events suchas intense storms.

• As climate changes throughout Europe theSW’s climatic comparative advantage maybe lessen especially for glasshouseproduction.

Opportunities that have been identified:

• Increased geographical range andproductivity of some crops such as maize.

• Potential for new crops such asgrapevines, sunflowers and other oilseedcrops.

• Potential for renewable energy generation.

• Potential for diversification – e.g. tourismpotential.

• Less potential for snow damage topolythene tunnels.

• Reduced heating costs for glasshousecrops.

• Increased demand for salad crops duringwarm weather.

The Way ForwardKey drivers have been identified as primarilythe Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) andother funding mechanisms. “Policy drivesagriculture” is a common statement, and onethat will need to be considered carefully beforeany change can be encouraged or expected.

Mention was made of the importance of theSWRDA, Government Office, and for CornwallObjective One and even the Eden Project askey drivers for the sector. The importance ofDEFRA as a policy driver was emphasised.

It was stated that Building Regulations wouldbe the proper format to shape future decisionson ensuring buildings are appropriate for futureclimatic conditions, and that water supply, oneof the most important factors to affectagriculture, is very much in the hands of thesupply companies.

It was stated that apathy on the part of theindustry was one of the biggest barriers tochange in the region. This was linked to thelack of capital and ready finance, without whichthe industry was unlikely to be prepared to takerisks on an uncertain topic.

Farm income was recognised as a majorbarrier, as change requires time and money toimplement. Without financial resources, labouris at a premium, which limits the time andmotivation for increasing knowledge levelsneeded for change.

“If there are not sufficient waterreserve in the South West, there willbe no way for farmers or growers to

adapt”

Various, regional

“Consideration needs to be given to thegrowth of water retaining crops on the

Somerset Levels, but to bring thisforward requires further incentives – a

policy change.”

Agricultural Development Officer,Somerset


There is limited information available regardingsoil management issues as they relate toclimate change. Land capability will need to bebetter matched to soil type and capability sothat appropriate land use under changingclimatic conditions can be identified.

It is possible that there is a knowledge barrier,e.g. on alternative enterprises and thedevelopment of vertically integrated systems.This contrasts with the situation in NewZealand where farmers have gone fromprimarily sheep farming to not just growinggrapes but producing high quality table wineswithin a few years.

There was a general consensus that themessage of adaptation was reaching the farmlevel, and that in fact adaptation had alreadyoccurred. Reports from Cornwall, Devon andSomerset were that drilling times have alreadychanged in many areas, but that there may notbe a recognised link between changingpractices and climate change.

While some knowledge is reaching the layman,there is a feeling that while academics arestudying the weather and global warming, thedebate still continues and there are nocertainties on which to act conclusively.

There is an understanding within the industrygenerally that continual monitoring of thesituation as it pertains to agriculture will benecessary for action to be proactive rather thanreactive, although it was felt that this messagewas not coming down clearly from any tradeorganisation.

While some reported that there was ampleknowledge available, it was widely stated thatthere was a dependence on IT related accessto information, which limited those who werelikely to make use of it. Information needs to bemade more accessible to the non-ITcommunity.

There is a degree of “not wanting to know” theinformation that may be available, but wherepeople are interested, the material is notrelevant or focussed enough to be useful tothem.

Recommendations for action

It was suggested that site visits to Europeanlocations experiencing comparable climates tothose expected for the South West would beextremely useful to help the industry to adapt ifthe probability was suitably high to warrant thetime and expense. Such visits would needexternal funding.

For the knowledge to reach throughout theindustry there needs to be a continual “dripfeed” of information through the trade journalsand farming media. This is not yet happening inthe South West.

More emphasis is needed to encourage theuptake of renewable energy options such asbio-fuel production, and the anaerobic digestionof slurry.

Relevant localised information is essential forthe industry to move forward. This must becombined with top-level support in the form ofboth Policy and Funding.

An authoritative, localised study identifying keyissues and recommendations is required,supported by appropriate Governmentintervention.

“Much depends on public and privatesector clients’ attitudes towards short-

term changes in the nature of theirornamental (and edible) plant stocks

and cultivation practices.Unenlightened attitudes are all too

commonplace.”

Garden Design & Maintenance company,Devon


Challenges and Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts on Agriculture Domain

Climate Impacts Challenges + Opportunities

Increased SummerTemperature

C

C

Reduced heating costs for glasshouse crops.

Reduced Oxygen levels in fish lagoons.

C Increased risk of machinery operator accidents due to heat stress.

C Conditions for supply staff and glasshouse/ poly-tunnel workers may becomeunfavourable and may require new working practices.

O Increased costs associated with glasshouse horticulture and associatedindustries as cooling methods increasingly needed.

O Potential to farm more “exotic” fish species.

O Potential for innovative crops and products for changing markets.

Reduced SummerRainfall

C Potential inability of water system to cope with increased demands underreduced supply conditions without stringent conservation measures andimproved storage, as well as changed on-farm practices/cropping regimes.

C Variability in water supply may increase stress to susceptible horticulturaland arable crops.

C

C

Potential for increased risk of fires on heathland and moorland grazing areas

Also, potential for reduced forage for summer grazing, especially on soils oflow soil available water capacity.

O Opportunities to increase use of new drought tolerant varieties.

Increased WinterTemperature

C Reduced over-winter die-off of pests and diseases, encouragement for thespread of fungal diseases.

O Early growth will necessitate an earlier start to lawn management etc.providing increased business opportunities to management companies.

CO

Later animal housing and reduced feed inputs represent a benefit to farmersbut a loss to their suppliers.

O Soil temperatures in spring rise more rapidly resulting in earlier seasongrowth of crops and forages.

Increased WinterRainfall

C Extra man-hours involved in remedial work (e.g. to flattened horticulturalcrops and plastic covers) will increase costs.

C Disruption of pesticide and fertilizer applications, due to waterlogged ground,leaching effects etc.

C Localised flooding will delay soil cultivation.

C Problems with slurry storage likely, especially in sudden rain events.

C Sowing regimes may be affected by soil moisture and workability, e.g. springrather than autumn sowing may become more appropriate.

C Soil erosion problems likely to worsen.

Increased SeaLevel and Tides

C Some low-lying areas could be given over to sea defence, salt marsh andinundation.

C Some loss of coastal lowland growing areas likely.

Longer GrowingSeasons

C Earlier plant growth may require earlier attention regarding pollination andpest control.

O Potentially less need for glasshouses

Reduced Frosts O Potential for an increased growing season could mean increased sales forsuppliers, e.g. of machinery, silage wrap, pesticides etc. (Although this wouldmean increased costs for farmers).

O Less frost damage should allow increased productivity.

O Potential for new crops presently precluded by frost risk.



Flooding Increased C Implementation of River Parrett Catchment project to assist with flood controland water handling, resulting in loss of land.

C Distribution of supplies and produce may be affected adversely by localisedflood events.

O Introduction of short rotation energy crops to assist with flood control.

C Increased threats to livestock grazing river floodplains

PotentiallyIncreased Windsand Storms

C

C

O

Damage to buildings, polytunnels and glasshouses.

Damage to standing crops and nursery stock.

Potential for increased demand in windbreak plants for domestic and on-farmuse. This would require careful selection, development and propagation ofsuitable species.


BIO-DIVERSITY, HABITAT,CONSERVATION ANDLANDSCAPES DOMAIN

ScopeProtection, management and conservation ofthe natural terrestrial environment (flora, fauna)including habitats, landscapes, trees andcommunity forests.

See also

Tourism and Leisure; Rivers; Forestry;Agriculture; Marine Fisheries; Coastal

BackgroundThe South West region contains two NationalParks (Dartmoor, Exmoor) and significantAreas of Outstanding Natural Beauty. It has aremarkable diversity of habitats, and contains alarge number of plant, mammal, bird,amphibian and reptile species, including somenational rarities (e.g., Cornish Heath, Ericavagans), species confined to the South West(such as the Dorset Heath, Erica ciliaris), andthose mainly distributed in the South West (e.g.Bristle Agrostis, Agrostis curtisii [syn. A.setacea]; Britain’s rarest reptile, the smoothsnake Coronella austriaca).

The South West region’s long peninsulacreates a strong oceanic climate.Nevertheless, the climatic contrasts betweenthe north east of the region and the far SouthWest (e.g. Isles of Scilly) are in many casesgreater than the climate changes shown for anypart of the region between the 1961-90baseline and the 2050’s climate scenarios.This means that at first sight there might seemto be no particular difficulty in species adaptingto the climate changes implied by the UKCIP02scenarios. However, this ignores the effect ofhabitat fragmentation by the largely agriculturaland urban landscape through which nativeplant and animal species might need to migrateas the climate changes. It also discountsimmigration or spread of alien (non-native)species into the peninsula from abroad.

The effect of the warm Atlantic Ocean allowssome southern and sub-tropical species tosurvive in the Isles of Scilly and in the coastalzone of the far South West. These species arelikely to be favoured in the warmer climatescenarios. The principal native deciduous treespecies that inhabit the area are towards thenorthern part of their geographical range withinEurope, and so might cope with a warmingclimate without major difficulty. Those specieswhose distributions are principally to the northof the region and for which the South West istheir southern or western outpost might bemore severely affected regionally by climatechange. This may be compounded by changesin agricultural practice driven by eithereconomic, land-use policy or further climate-change considerations.

Key Issues• In a warmer overall climate, species at the

southern edge of their biogeographicalrange are probably most at risk of loss fromthe region.

• Warmer winters will adversely affect thosespecies suited to a harsher winter climate.

• Reserves set aside for particular groups ofspecies are fixed in space, but the speciescurrently found there may not thrive undernew climatic conditions, resulting in overallspecies loss and local extinction.

• Some regional Species Recoveryprogrammes may be put at risk if the moreextreme climate scenarios become reality.

• Biodiversity is strongly influenced by landuse, and so policy responses should bedeveloped in terms of integrated land-usemanagement (including integrated marineand coastal zone management: see otherdomains).

• Agricultural changes resulting fromadaptation response to anticipated climatechange could have a profound effect(positive or negative) on biodiversity.

• The sector is well informed and believes inclimate change scenarios, but is hamperedby site-based legislation relating to a fixedinterest at each site, and is guided by aNational Vegetation Classification (theNVC, which lists groups of species thatshare similar ecological requirements),which is based on data from the 1970’s andmight not include potential speciesassemblages in a changed climate.

• The sector should apply similar criteria tocoastal areas of nature conservationimportance in respect of protection againstsea level rise, as it calls upon others toapply to areas for development oragriculture (viz. avoid calls forunsustainable coastal protection)

Better use could be made of palaeoecologicaldata to inform statutory agencies as to thechanging species assemblages that haveoccurred in the region during the Holocene,and that might provide analogues for times ofwarmer climate.

Heathland (wet and dry) communities inthe South West range from the wet

heath/bog complexes of mid-Cornwall,north to the Culm, then eastwards

through the Erica tetralix, Ulex gallii, E.ciliaris boundary, across into the U.

minor–E. ciliaris dry Dorset heaths. Thiscline is a unique feature of the region: is

it feasible to conserve it long-term?

Source unknown


Species loss

Of prime concern is that some species withnorthern distributions may be lost from theSouth West in a warmer climate. For examplethe MONARCH study simulates loss of thelarge heath butterfly from southern Britain(including the South West) in the UKCIP98scenario for the 2050’s (Berry et al., 2001). Italso implied potential loss of other species fromsouthern Britain in a warmer climate. But themaps of simulated distributions for 1961-90may give a false impression, and it must beremembered that the MONARCH study, whileuseful, was not based on the current UKCIP02scenarios.

Several plant species feature in the South Westin the simulated maps for 1961-90, while thesimulated distribution maps for the 2020s andthe 2050s show subsequent losses, but inreality several of these species are alreadyabsent from the South West. Salix herbacea,Carex bigelowii, Geranium sylvaticum, Blysmusrufus and Linnaea borealis were not recordedfrom the South West in the BSBI Atlas (Perringand Walters, 1976) — in fact the last-named isalready absent south of the Yorkshire Dales —thereby exaggerating the “loss” of such speciesin the simulated distribution maps. The issueof potential loss of species must not be denied,but concern must be based on real presentdistributions. Interestingly, the MONARCHstudy showed benefits in the South West forthe red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) — a BAP-priority species — under all scenarios, withexpansion in its 2050’s distribution across theregion: “this [simulated] retreat in the north andconcomitant expansion in the south is a mostunusual [simulated] response that has not beenseen with any other species” (Berry et al.,2001, p. 65). It also runs counter to theexperience of a decline of the red squirrel’sformer southern distribution over the past 100years during a period of overall climatewarming (clearly, other factors may have beenat work over the past 100 years).

A gradual loss of clubmoss species in theSouth West has been taking place over the lastcentury (partly owing to habitat change), suchthat Alpine clubmoss was recorded on Exmoorand Dartmoor before 1930 but notsubsequently (Perring and Walters, 1976).Climate change may result in extinction ofremaining clubmoss species whose maindistribution is more northerly in Britain but thatpresently have southern outposts on moorlandof the South West region, for example Huperziaselago and Lycopodium clavatum.

Opportunities for range expansion

The warmer climate may provide opportunitiesfor range expansion in the South West for anumber of mobile species (especially birds andinvertebrates) that presently may be towardsthe northern outpost of their range. There isalready some evidence that this can occur ifthere is a sequence of warmer summers and/or

milder winters, for which the Dartford warbler isa particular example.

Climatic effects on landscapes

It is expected that as climate changes, soagriculture itself will change, with potential far-reaching consequences for landscapes. Forexample, the position of the moorland edge inthe South West has varied over centuriesaccording to a combination of economicpressures, agricultural demands (such asduring the Napoleonic Wars) and climatechange (such as during the Medieval WarmPeriod). It is the effect on agriculture of climatechange that may have the greatestconsequences for the character of landscapesin the region.

Risks that have been identified include:

• Nature Reserves established withparticular rare species may lose thatspecies if vulnerable to climate change orto consequences of climate change (e.g.fire incidence; drought incidence).

• Possible long-term changes in compositionof plant communities and correspondingshift in fauna. Examples include heathlandon Exmoor.

• Potential for species extinction as a resulteither of direct climate change effects, or ofsevere local weather events, and alsofailure to migrate between habitats to top-up reduced populations.

In a climate of drier summers, arablecultivation on chalk downland may

decline where there is no potential forcrop irrigation, and this would providea significant opportunity to expand the

area of calcareous grasslands in theSouth West.

Source unknown

“… populations on the edge of theirrange are responsive to limatic

changes which may render redundantresources which have been devoted tothem. The rapid rise and fall of butterflypopulations illustrates this clearly. Ourefforts could be better spent on more

tractable problems than trying to createthe micro-climate of Spain on English

grasslands”

(see http://www.eco-action.org/dt/hambler.html )


Opportunities that have been identifiedinclude:

• Reorganization of agriculture can and willprovide opportunities for natureconservation objectives to be realized,provided climate change effects are takeninto account.

• Local invertebrate rarities (includingseveral southern grasshopper species, andthe bee wolf — a solitary wasp and formerRed Databook species) and some birdspecies (e.g. Dartford warbler ontoExmoor) could be favoured by warmertemperatures.

• Dorset heathland could be safeguarded byremoving forestry from former heathlandand so expanding the heathland habitat toact as buffer against increased fire risk.(Pers. Comm., English Nature).

Effects of climate changes on agriculture mayimpact also on biodiversity and on the practiceof and opportunities for nature conservation,with such concepts as set-aside, stewardship,and successor schemes, etc., as intimated inthe Curry Report, likely to have implications forbiodiversity and nature conservation. However,there is the danger of possible over-emphasisamongst nature conservation organizations onloss of conspicuous species (e.g. colourfulbutterflies; conspicuous flowering plants) andunder-emphasis on other types of lessconspicuous or less-studied organisms whosedistribution may be more severely affectedeither by climate change and/or by agriculturalchange.

The Way ForwardMussner and Plachter (2002, p. 3) argue that amajor reason nature conservation often fails isthat there is no standard methodology. In fact,palaeoecological data (studies of ancient plantremains) suggest that while plant communityformation is likely to be influenced by climate itis not determined by it. Consequently it ispossible that if too rigid a protocol is used whendealing with community responses to climatechange, effective conservation will not occur.

Watts (2001) investigated planning forbiodiversity in the wider countryside andidentified a number of competing issues. Heargues that the traditional approach to natureconservation in England has been to protect aseries of small, isolated sites, but that recentresearch has demonstrated this to beinadequate, suggesting a need to directenergies more towards conservation in thesurrounding wider countryside. He points outthat there are considerable difficultiesassociated with achieving biodiversityobjectives in the wider countryside, as there isa heavy reliance on non-statutory planningmechanisms. His work contained case studieson particular habitats in the South West,

including the Culm grassland in Devon, but thegeneral principles have wider application in theSouth West region.

Perception of Adaptation Issues

Although climate change is widely perceived asan issue within the sector, the adaptationresponses are less clearly developed atpresent, especially as nature reserves are fixedin space but mobile organisms are not. TheMONARCH study suggested that climatechange should be incorporated withinBiodiversity Action Plans (BAPs). This may bean appropriate mechanism, but otheropportunities, identified by Watts (2001)through case studies from the South West,might also be taken.

One of the outcomes of the Wales UKCIPClimate Change Scoping Study wasidentification of the need to create corridorsbetween habitats so as to ensure dispersal oforganisms as the climate changes. Althoughthere has been debate over the effectivenessof corridors in the dispersal of some wildlife,and whilst claims of the relevance of islandbiogeography to nature reserve design havebeen questioned (Hambler and Speight, 1995),this is not the general perception within thestatutory and voluntary conservation agenciesof the South West. Practitioners here believeboth in applications of island biogeographicaltheory to nature conservation and of the desirefor corridors between habitats. Indeed withinthe region, there is persuasive evidence thatcorridors such as rail routes have permitted thedispersal of alien species such as the Oxfordragwort (Senecio squalidus) and the butterflybush (Buddleja davidii) throughout the rail-served parts of the South West, such that thesespecies are now widespread and wellestablished (Tikka et al., 2001).

The particular physical characteristics of theregion suggest that creation of corridorsbetween reserves may be an appropriateadaptive response to concerns over thebiogeographical effects of climate change,although this would still result in (and could

Examples of Good Practice:

• Managed retreat of parts ofsouthern coast, and of ‘unmanaged’or ‘natural’ retreat at Porlock.(Recognising that sea-level rise willhappen, and it is not alwayssustainable to defend the coast).

• The only mainland site of theladybird spider (previously thoughtextinct in Britain but re-discovered inDorset in 1980) has been extended,and studies conducted in terms ofsuitability of introduction to nearbysites based on continental parallels.


indeed, facilitate) loss of northward migratingspecies from the region and the possiblespread of alien ‘nuisance’ species.

Knowledge and Information Base

Parts of the sector are very well informed onclimate change issues and many practitionersand supporters find the climate changescenarios credible. The Woodland Trust hassought to involve the public in monitoring of keyphenological indicators (seewww.phenology.org.uk). However, WildlifeTrusts are concerned that a significantproportion of potential supporters are scepticalof the role of human influence in climatechange, and are not sufficiently persuaded bypresent campaigning literature that focuses onthe topic. This may affect the capability ofwildlife trusts to generate sufficient budget todeal with climate change issues.

Research Needs

There is a need for further research on effectsof climate change on species and habitats inthe region. Although part of this work willinvolve contemporary monitoring, and may alsoinvolve computer modelling, it is suggested thatresearch should also incorporate analysis of

long-term biological records (where available)and of other palaeoecological data. Dartmoor,Exmoor and the Somerset Levels in particularhave long palaeoecological records, and otherlocations within the region have sedimentsamenable to comparable detailed study.

Recommendations for action

For those parts of the region (e.g. Exmoor)where long-term (>1000 years) continuouspalaeoecological records can be generated,there could be an investigation into landscapechanges and species responses to previousepisodes of climate change (e.g. before andduring the Early Medieval Warm Period), to actas an approximation for vegetation response toanticipated climate changes. While useful, it isrecognised that the use of such data wouldneed to be combined with other methods ofstudy.

The MONARCH study suggested that a moreforward-looking, flexible and dynamic approachto nature conservation is required toaccommodate climate change, involving habitatmanagement and landscape-scale responses.


Challenges and Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts on Biodiversity Domain


Summer TemperatureIncreased

C Increased incidence of fire, especially to Dartmoor, Exmoor and toDorset heath and other heath areas.

C Increased risk to species that suffer in times of drought.

C Risk of expansion of naturalized aliens, such as Fuschia in Cornwall.

C Possibility that species at southerly limit of their range may becompetitively excluded.

O Species ranges likely to be affected, with increased numbers of thosepresently at the northern limit of their range.

O Rare Lepidoptera at northern limits of ranges may be favoured.

O South West has c. 50% of UK resource of calcareous grasslands; theseareas could be expanded if arable agriculture declines on chalkdownland.

Summer RainfallReduced

C Drying up of streams — both over hard-rock geology and groundwaterfed, such as chalkland streams — and consequent loss of species.Possible threat to water vole in Wiltshire chalkland streams.

C Reptiles (e.g. smooth snake) and birds, e.g. nightjar, Dartford warbler,woodlark potentially adversely affected in Dorset heathland (SPA) byincreased incidence of deliberate/accidental fires in dry summers.

C Wet heaths may suffer, as may blanket bogs and other wetlands.

O Change in agricultural practice may provide opportunities for achievingbiodiversity targets, especially if more land is set aside from agriculture.

O Removal of commercial forestry from heathland areas would createlarger areas of heath and might act as a buffer against forest fireincidence.

Winter TemperatureIncreased

C Species with their southern breeding limit in South West may becomeexcluded (e.g. red grouse believed recently extinct on Exmoor, and notsuitable for reintroduction under anticipated climate scenarios; goldenplover now transitory and no longer breeding in South West).

C Plant species that need sustained cold period of winter dormancy maybe adversely affected.

O Some species may be favoured by milder winters (e.g. Dartford warbler)

O Need for monitoring of species changes could lead to increased jobopportunities.

Wintertime RainfallIncreased

C Changing distribution of seasonal precipitation may affect agriculturalcrop regimes (Spring-, not Autumn-sown), and so affect wildlife in winter.

O Delivery of Biodiversity Action Plans through changes in agriculturalregime; may also provide opportunities for reappraising biodiversitytargets.

Sea Levels and TidesIncreased

C Potential loss of coastal and estuarine habitats and increased erosion ofcliffs with loss of characteristic species.

O Opportunity for integrated land management in the South West estuariesand in Somerset Levels (and inland) to manage effects of increasedwinter precipitation and of high tides; managed retreat may includeencouragement of saltmarsh creek systems to absorb tidal energy.

Longer GrowingSeason and ReducedFrosts

C Species that require sub-zero period to break seed dormancy orencourage growth could be adversely affected. (Crowberry, Empetrumnirgum, requires cold winters for successful growth).

O Opportunities for species with pronounced southern distributions tobecome more widespread (but possibly at expense of other species).



Flooding Increased C Flood risk to river bank-dwelling species.

O Integrated land management to regulate flooding would have a positiveimpact on biodiversity.

Potentially IncreasedWinds and Storms

C Potential threat to Chesil Beach and its saline lagoon (danger of breachand consequent loss of international SPA/RAMSAR site; also acandidate Special Area of Conservation)

C Windthrow of forest and other trees.

O Field-layer species favoured in areas of wind-thrown forest.Opportunities for butterflies in resulting forest mosaic.

O Opportunity for sustainable management on coast of Somerset Levels,which would encourage biodiversity.


COASTAL DOMAIN

ScopeKey activities occurring within 1km of theland/sea interface including issues of coastalerosion, management and defence.

See Also

Tourism and Leisure, Rivers, Fisheries, Bio-diversity and Transport.

BackgroundThe coastal zone of the South West region isfundamental to its economy and its inhabitants’quality of life. Of all the UK’s regions, it is theSouth West that is the most influenced by thesea. The importance of the coastline to theregion’s economy is emphasized by thepublication of “South West Coast: A Prospectusfor the Future” produced by the South WestCoastal Issues Group in 2002 with the supportof several key regional stakeholders.

The South West of England's 1,020 km ofcoast extends from the Bristol Channel toLand's End and along the English Channelcoast to Christchurch, and includes the Isles ofScilly and the Isle of Lundy. Parts of the regiontherefore have a truly maritime nature with thelongest seaboard and the highest ratio ofcoastline to land area of any region in the UK.

Many of the principal urban areas of the region,which include Bristol, Plymouth, Exeter, Torbayand Bournemouth/Poole, are situated on orvery near to the coast. Bristol/Severnside isone of the UK's largest commercial ports;Plymouth is the UK's largest naval base; andBournemouth’s tourist trade is second only toLondon in terms of hotel accommodation.

The national and international significance ofthe region’s coast is shown by its range andnumber of environmental designations:

• A UNESCO World Biosphere site(Braunton Burrows in North Devon), theonly natural UNESCO World Heritage Sitein mainland UK (the Dorset and EastDevon Coast), and a potential furtherWorld Heritage Site near the Cornish coast(the historical tin and copper mining areasurrounding Redruth/Camborne).

• The UK's highest number of coastal andmarine Special Areas of Conservation (49)and Special Protection Areas (59) whichform part of Europe's Natura 2000network.

• England's only Marine Nature Reserve(the Island of Lundy) and all but two of theUK's Voluntary Marine Nature Reserves.

• One third of its area (and a high proportionof the coast) designated as Areas ofOutstanding Natural Beauty (AONBs), oneof the nation’s National Parks (Exmoor)bordering the Bristol Channel coast, and60% of the country's Heritage Coast.

In addition, the South West has:

• Nearly half (187) of the UK’s top beaches(as listed in the Marine ConservationSociety’s Good Beach Guide) whosequality consistently exceed the nationalaverage.

• Over 400 kilometres of the coast owned bythe National Trust, including 40% of thetotal length of the Cornish seaboard.

• The South West Coast Path which is thelongest National Trail in the UK, and ahuge range of coastal leisure andwatersports activities available.

Key issues• Rising sea levels and potential increased

storminess will increase rates of coastalerosion. Protecting coastal assets (orrelocating them) may be costly if theeffects of climate change are suddenrather than gradual.

• Increased wave heights and potentialstorminess may lead to damage to coastalamenities including piers, promenades,beach cafes etc. Flooding caused by stormsurges and sea level rise may damagecoastal rail lines and roads. Theunpredictable coastal dynamics may leadto erosion of some beaches. Theseproblems are likely to be particularly acutein the region due to the fact that thelandmass is subsiding.

• Natural assets in the coastal zone may belost, such as wetlands, mudflats,saltmarshes, beaches and sand dunes.The flora and fauna associated with thesewill also be affected.

• Existing areas of saline intrusion maybecome more extensive, though more asan indirect result of changing waterbalance than as a direct consequence ofsea level rise, except on the most low lyingcoasts.

• Retreating from coastal areas may not beviable in many areas of the SW such asthe Isles of Scilly and protecting the areaat risk may be uneconomical in manyplaces. The resulting costs of maintainingand building new coastal defenses arelikely to be significant.


Specific Climate Issues for the SW

Of major significance to the South West are thepotential impacts of climate change on its

coastal and marine resources. The coastalzone provides important economic, transport,residential and recreational

functions, all of which depend upon its physicalcharacteristics, appealing landscape, culturalheritage, natural resources, and rich marineand terrestrial biodiversity. Climate changessuch as rising sea levels, increased windspeeds and storms and resultant storm surgeswill significantly effect the coastal zone. Inaddition, changes in seasonal temperaturesand rainfall patterns will also have less directbut equally important impacts.

Risks that have been identified:

Rising sea levels and possible increasedstorminess are likely to increase rates ofcoastal erosion. Natural assets in the coastalzone may be lost and areas of saline intrusionwill increase, particularly in low lying coastalareas. Many beaches too may be ‘squeezed’by rising sea levels, which could threaten theirviability – particularly those which are onlyexposed at low tide. Managers of areasvulnerable to sea level rise will face starkchoices on how to manage those sites infuture.

Opportunities that have been identified:

Increases in tourism may bring a boost to theeconomy in the coastal zone. There may beincreased opportunities for developing outdoorrecreation and watersports. There may befurther opportunities for offshore wind powerdevelopment. In addition, there maybeopportunities for new crops and a longergrowing season may lead to improvements inagriculture in some coastal areas.

Specific locations vulnerable to climatechange include:

• Somerset Levels – The use of LIDAR isneeded to determine absolute level andthus flooding risk

• Steep-sided Cornish Valleys – e.g.Polperro and Pentewan. River and flooddefence is needed to improve defenceagainst flash floods.

• Isles of Scilly – The islands are particularlyvulnerable to sea level rise and stormdamage leading to impacts on wholecommunity and its economy.

• Natural coastal assets – e.g. Loe Pool, thelargest freshwater lake in Cornwall may beflooded by saltwater.

• Dorset coast – coastal erosion of cliffs isdamaging infrastructure and creatingdangerous landslides onto beaches.

• Quays and harbours – e.g. Devoran Quayand Mullion harbour on the Lizardpeninsula. Rising sea levels and increasedstorminess could threaten quays andharbours.

• Estuaries – e.g. Helford, Camel, Gannelcatchment. Estuaries may be silted up dueto changes in water flow. Businesses maybe effected by decrease in boat traffic dueto storm events.

• Beaches – Beaches in the region may beeroded and surf breaks may be altered byshifts in sediment e.g. Fistral Beach.Opportunities may be available due toincreased tourism.

The Way Forward• There is a continuing need to incorporate

accurate measurements of land levelsubsidence into sea level rise calculations.

• With increased risks of storms, tidal surgesand flooding frequency, there is concernabout rising costs of insurance andcompensation. This has the potential toimpact on development within the coastalzone, and so is likely to engender concernand thus both change and research.

• Inland flooding can exacerbate coastalflooding, especially where there is a highspring tide or surges.

• There is a need to establish ownership ofcoastal defences and the land they are onin some circumstances.

• There is a need to further establish thevalue of land/environment in relation to thecost of defending it.

• There is a need to establish a system ofpublicly accepted justification for whichareas of land should be sacrificed andwhich defended.

• There is a growth in Integrated CoastalZone Management (SMPs, LEAPs etc),but such plans are not statutory and couldbe more effective if they were.

• Need for an integrated governance fordecision making. Integrated Coastal ZoneManagement (ICZM). SMP's, LEAPS's e.g.Porlock beach/marsh.

Knowledge and information base

The value of the coastal zone to the SouthWest’s inhabitants, and the enormous pressureon it, provide strong incentives for a greaterscientific understanding which can ensureefficient and sustainable management.Research undertaken within the coastal zone toassess the impact of climate change is vital.However, it is essential that links are madebetween the physical impacts of climatechange and the effects these have on the localeconomy. For example damage to the coastal


railway at Dawlish (the only Rail link into theSW from the North and East) would haveconsiderable impacts on the economy of theregion. In addition coastal managers need totake into account future changes in sea levelsand increases in storminess when planningcoastal defence. Some areas may have to besacrificed to rising sea levels and this willprovide some difficult choices for the future.

Recommendations

• Utilise opportunities for artificial reefs forsurfing and diving as well as forrecreational fisheries for exotic southernspecies (e.g. tuna) brought about byclimate change.

• Invest in research into offshore renewableenergy sources - wind, wave energy andreassess the environmental and economiceffects of the Severn Barrage.

• Carry out more accurate measurements ofland level subsidence to improve themodels for rise in sea level.

• Encourage further research into theerosion of coasts and beaches; a carefulbalance will be needed between protectingcertain assets and retreating from otherswhere costs of sustaining coastal defencesor replenishing beaches becomesuneconomic.

• Rationalise the current split inresponsibilities for flood and coastaldefence and work towards more integratedmanagement.

• Monitoring of coastal erosion and researchinto coastal defence needed as well asresearch into the movement of sand andshingle to ensure the maintenance ofbeaches.

• Assess the risk of remobilisation of toxicsubstances (e.g. heavy metals) inriverine/estuarine sediments.


Challenges and Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts of Coastal Domain



C Increased tourism (if brought about by this aspect of climate change) maylead to environmental damage within the coastal zone (e.g. litter and surfaceerosion to coastal footpaths, damage to flora and fauna, etc).

O Increased tourism in the coastal zone and islands may lead to a boost in theeconomy and an increase in watersports, environmental tourism and outdooractivities.


C Negative impact on flower farmers on Isles of Scilly as their competitiveadvantage due to early flowering is lost to other areas.

O Potentially more tourism on short winter breaks.


C Water supply problems particularly on Isles of Scilly.

C Negative effects on flora and fauna in coastal zone due to droughts andpossible increased erosion of coastal paths.

O Increased tourism as above.

Winter RainfallIncreased

C Flooding in coastal zone areas leading to damage to natural assets andinfrastructure e.g. subsidence leading to disruption to transport services.

C Increased run-off and leaching from agricultural land potentially damaging toflora and fauna in coastal zones of land and sea.

C Remobilisation of metalliferous mine wastes affecting bathing water qualityand inshore fisheries

Sea Level and TidesIncreased

C Erosion of cliffs and beaches damaging natural assets as well asinfrastructure and archaeological heritage.

C Loss of beaches and coastal footpaths in the South West could damage localeconomy. Cliff side hotels are also particularly vulnerable.

C Damage to coastal defences including extensive protection to farmland.

C Damage to quays and harbours

C Flooding of Somerset levels and Isles of Scilly damaging infrastructure andnatural assets.

C Increased water in harbours and estuaries may lead to increased sedimentand need for dredging.

C Damage to transport routes due to coastal erosion (e.g. at Slapton Ley)

C/O

Changes in tides, sediment and sea levels may affect surfing breaks, creatingnew ones or making existing ones less practical or worthwhile to use.

O Erosion of cliffs may expose previously unseen archaeological remains.

O Creation of new habitats by inundation of sea water.

Larger GrowingSeasons + ReducedFrosts

C Negative impacts on agriculture in coastal zone e.g. damage to horticulture

Flooding Increased C Increased risk of flooding to coastal towns e.g. Pentewan, Helston. Salt waterflooding of natural assets (e.g. Loe Pool). Loss of saline lagoon habitats andassociated flora/fauna due to saltwater inundation.


C Storm surges leading to flooding of coastal areas may damage harbours,quays, marine businesses and natural assets. Publicity of areas damaged bystorms can lead to a negative image and detrimental effects on tourism.

C Many coastal hotels and businesses get a lot of trade from boats (e.g. Helfordestuary) which severely declines during storms and strong winds.




C Small businesses which are numerous in the coastal zone could be badlyeffected as they will not include extreme events in business planning

C Damage to infrastructure in coastal areas e.g. homes, cafes, shops, hotels,road (e.g. Slapton Ley) and rail networks (e.g. Dawlish).

C Increased erosion of natural assets e.g. beaches and cliffs.

C Storm events on the Isles of Scilly damage the whole economy.

O Potential to develop “storm-watching” tourist trade.

O Increased wind speeds can be beneficial for wind farms and may lead tofurther opportunities for development of on and offshore wind farms.


FORESTRY DOMAIN

ScopeThe forestry sector including areas of managedwoodland both for timber production and foramenity forest.

See also

Agriculture; Biodiversity

BackgroundForestry within the region varies from ForestryCommission plantations of softwoods (e.g.Sitka Spruce – Picea sitchensis) to areas ofmanaged broadleaved (hardwood) trees,principally of native species, such as oak (bothQuercus robur and Q. petraea) but also ofspecies possibly introduced to parts of theregion (such as beech, the extent of whosenatural, native distribution in the South West isdisputed). Forestry occupies upland areas (asdiscrete ‘blocks’, such as in parts of Dartmoor,Exmoor and the Mendips), lowland, andincludes some large areas of variabletopography (such as the Forest of Dean).

Depending upon the criteria chosen (e.g.,whether commercial forest products areproduced), forestry might not easily beseparable from areas of amenity woodland, orwoodland reserves. Within the South West, forexample, are areas of (largely, broadleaved)woodland owned or managed by the NationalTrust and especially by the Woodland Trust,which has a greater density of its sites in thisthan in any other UK region. For the purposesof this review, the focus has been on thecommercial forest sector, but the scopeincludes also amenity forest.

Forestry is an economic activity that operatesover relatively long timescales (in relation toother economic activities). It can take severaldecades or even hundreds of years for a tree toreach maturity, but the timber (or other) harvestis usually taken before full maturity andcertainly before senescence. Return periods of20 to 50 years for weather events thereforeroutinely have to be factored into siteassessments (e.g. through calculatingexposure values; assessing droughtsusceptibility, flood risk), and plantations mustbe capable of withstanding severe stormevents.

Broadleaved trees are more susceptible todamage from major storms if these occur whenthe trees are in full leaf. For evergreen conifers(i.e., all plantation conifers in Britain, with theexception of larch), windthrow can be a majorproblem, and so any increase in the incidenceof very severe storms may be problematic.

However, forestry is used to experiences withextreme weather events (for softwood cropsgrown for minimum of 20- to 40-years inmarginal environments) and is used toassessing risks, and so is one of the sectorspotentially well informed on the possible effectsof climate change. Up until recently, however,the issue was not perceived as a majorproblem. Other issues have been higher upthe forestry agenda, but within the next fiveyears it is anticipated that the regionalconservancies will be responding to the climatechange agenda, prompted by work done byForest Research.

Key Issues• Until recently the sector has been slow to

appreciate the gravity of the issue ofclimate change and respond accordingly.

• Forestry practice is set in the context of(inter-)national Forestry and WoodlandsStrategy, in compliance with the HelsinkiAccord, but this has no explicit referenceto climate change.

• Likely to be a major shift in perceptionand in adaptation response within thenext five years.

• A key driver for change may be the recentpublication Climate Change: Impacts onUK Forests (Broadmeadow, 2002).

• Established forests are reasonably robust,and resilient to climate change.

• Establishment of new plantations of treescould be affected by soil moisture deficits.

• There is possible greater susceptibility todamage by green spruce aphid under allthe climate scenarios suggested.

• There may possibly be greatersusceptibility to Phytopthera.

• There are possible problems of importeddiseases in a new climate regime.

• A major barrier to perception is conflictingreports in some of the broadcast media,which leads practitioners to believe thereis no consensus on the direction andmagnitude of climate change.

• Floodplain forestry may be a suitableadaptation response for continuallyflooded agricultural land. However,conifers could cause acidification of waterbodies which would have negative waterquality impacts.

• A possible barrier to adaptation responseis in defining what constitutes a ‘native’broadleaved species in a warmer climatescenario.


Potential risks

Awareness of climate change in this sector is slightlyhigher than in the late 1990s, and is probably higherthan in many other sectors investigated in this study.Nevertheless, across the forestry sector as a whole,climate change is not yet taken seriously. (Pers.Comm. Anon.)

Although established forest trees are resilient toclimate change (Broadmeadow, 2002), establishmentof new forestry (or new planting within felled forest) ismore susceptible. Under the more extremetemperature scenarios from UKCIP02, some nativespecies may be put beyond their natural range in theUK. This may include beech in the southeast ofEngland, although within the South West its nativestatus is in dispute and the temperature effect may beless marked. So far as other native species areconcerned, these are towards the north or north-westof their European geographical range (e.g. oak) and soare not threatened immediately in the climate changescenarios.

A major barrier to a shared perception of concern isthe conflicting reports in some of the broadcast media,which leads practitioners to believe there is noconsensus on the direction and magnitude of climatechange. It is hoped that the recent Forestry Researchpublication (by Broadmeadow, 2002) will help tocounter this, along with the release of the UKCIP02data.

The major barrier to change in practice is the 40-50year lead-time. Of the challenges presented above,wind damage is seen as a potential problem inamenity forests if severe storm incidence were toincrease.

Positive Benefits

A potentially positive response from the climatechange scenarios is an increased rate of forest growth.However, the causes of increased growth rate aredifficult to disentangle, and may be due more tosilvicultural practice rather than climate change, but aCO2 fertilization effect is also possible. Unfortunately,faster growing trees may in some circumstances provemore susceptible to windthrow (damage to forestscaused by strong winds involving roots being pulledfrom the ground and the whole tree being toppled).

“[Grey] squirrels are more of a threat to lowlandforests [in the South West] than climate change

ever will be.”

District Forester

The Way ForwardThe effect of climate change on forestry is summed upvery well in a new publication entitled Climate Change:Impacts on UK forests, edited by Mark Broadmeadow.Forestry Commission Bulletin 125, Edinburgh. This

has been published this year (2002) in association withthe Institute of Chartered Foresters.

There is clearly a need to take predicted climatechange into account in making long-term decisionsabout species choice and management systems.Advice before planting is available from the ForestryCommission, but local site assessors are best placedto evaluate individual sites. Overall, the pace ofclimate change can be accommodated satisfactorilywith most species currently planted in the South West(except beech). Conifers have a 50-year rotation time,so no problem is envisaged for these, especiallyDouglas Fir (e.g. in Forest of Dean), although SitkaSpruce is slightly more of a concern.

There is a possibility that beech will not be living in asuitable climate when mature in 80-100 years(although it should still have climate space in theSouth West; see Broadmeadow, 2002). Theprecautionary principle suggests a policy that includesdiversification of species and age structure, so as tospread risks. There is great potential for floodplainforestry in low-lying flat areas of the South West (eg inparts of Somerset), and there may be potential forurban forestry in the major conurbations, althoughspace (and land prices) may be at a premium. Onfloodplains it is possible to plant willows as a robustland use, resistant to flooding; whilst in the upper partsof a catchment, forestry can be used to interceptprecipitation, increase evapo-transpiration and reducerun-off, although this may have the effect of reducingriver flows and availability of water resources for otherpurposes. Forestry can therefore be seen as a majortool for use as part of integrated land managementschemes (see for example the River Parrettcatchment).

In international discussions that have followed theKyoto Protocol, carbon offset, by planting trees, isseen by some as a major mitigation policy. Some seethe planting of forests as a method of sequestration ofCO2, but in reality this is neither a long-term mitigationsolution, nor a long-term adaptation response, as CO2is only locked up for as long as the resulting wood isunburnt or undecayed.

Research Needs

Although climate change modeling in the UK is wellfunded, the implications of climate change for forestryand woodland ecosystems in the South West arelargely unresearched. The impacts on woodlandspecies and ecosystems in particular are uncertain,and remain to be researched in detail.

Recommendations

• Educate practitioners in the forestry sector, byreference to Broadmeadow (2002).

• Research the implications of climate change forforestry and woodland ecosystems in the SouthWest.

• Research the impacts on woodland species andecosystems in particular.


Challenges and Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts in Forestry Domain



C Possible increase of fire incidence, or more intense fires, in coniferous plantations.

C More visitors to forests, so potentially greater fire setting and fire risk.

C Increased risk of pathogen attack.

C Extension of range of insect vectors of pathogens.

O Some insect pests may themselves suffer.

O Growth rate high on floodplains.

O Greater volume production.


C Hylobius and Hylastes beetle numbers may increase (affect new trees at groundlevel).

C Green Spruce Aphid may overwinter in greater numbers.

C Greater Grey Squirrel numbers and consequent damage.

O Less damage from winter cold.

Summer Rainfall C Decreased growth rate in areas susceptible to summer droughts.

Decreased C Drought crack damage to conifers.

C Soil moisture deficits leading to plant stress and abnormal root growth.

O Opportunity to introduce more drought-tolerant species

NB Increased CO2 levels will increase growth while causing stomatal closure andthus reducing water loss.


O Decreased soil quality from increased wintertime precipitation


C Only a problem where forests are planted in coastal locations; not significant in SouthWest, except in instances of new floodplain forestry.

O Floodplain forestry (willows) could be an adaptation response for agricultural land thatis continually flooded and so becomes uneconomic to farm.


C Risk of unexpected Autumn frosts becoming more damaging as a result of laterhardening and predicted diurnal temperature ranges in the south, due to plantconditioning to the “new” normal conditions. This is also a consequence of increasedCO2 levels.

C Norway Spruce may cease to be a productive species (not a feature of timberproduction in South West; grown for Christmas trees).

O Increased growth rate (also as a consequence of increased C02.)

Flooding Increased C Root damage. Makes trees then more susceptible to summer drought.

C

O

Alternating flooding and drought places stress on trees, possible making them moresusceptible to Phytopthera infections

Flood plain forestry could be an adaptation response for agricultural land that iscontinually flooded and so becomes uneconomic.

Winds and StormsPotentially Increased

C Need to minimise risks, as gusts of more than 40 m per sec result in widespreaddamage. Amenity forests susceptible.

O Potential impact not thought to be that great in commercial forests, as forestry isalready conducted in a windy climate. Continuation of best practice thought to besufficient.


MARINE FISHERIES DOMAIN

ScopeCoastal commercial fisheries and associated activities.Some consideration of inland fisheries included forcompleteness of cover.

See Also

Rivers, Tourism and Leisure, and Coastal.

BackgroundThe South West region's coastal waters mark aboundary between warm southern and cool northernareas. This creates an abundance of different speciesin one of the richest marine and coastal habitats in theworld. Therefore, marine fisheries are particularlyvulnerable to climate change and may face significantchallenges to this important part of the local economy.

Although the fishing industry is in relative economicdecline, 42% of England's fishing operations are in theSouth West. The main fishing ports are Newlyn,Brixham and Plymouth. In 1997 the region’s portslanded fish from UK vessels to the value of £62.8million and accounted for more than half by quantityand value of all fish landings in England (with Newlynin the lead). Fishing dominates the identity of many ofthe small coastal settlements, playing a vital role in theregion’s history and image. For every personemployed in fishing there are another 3.5 jobs indistribution and processing.

The South West has a mixed fishing fleet with no onespecies dominating landings. In general they are lowvolume high value species which are popular outsidethe UK, for example; species such as megrim, hake,sole and monk. The region also has the highestconcentration of landings of pelagic species such asmackerel, pilchards and sprats.

Shellfish landings are also substantial, of which crabsand lobsters are important. Half of all shellfish watersin England and Wales are in the South West (9 out of18). The EC Shellfish Waters Directive controls theirquality and in 1998 the South West had 100%compliance. In the last survey in 1995 all but oneestuary in the region was classified as good, a highlevel of quality only equaled by the Southern Region.

South Devon is one of the major centres for crab, inparticular Brown Crab, in the UK. 100% of the crabcaught goes for live export, except during September,October and November when around a third is sent tobe processed in factories around the region. The crabmust be transported live which restricts the market, asthey must be relatively close to home if the crab is tosurvive the journey.

Approximately 90% of the fish landed in the region areexported to other parts of the country and direct to thecontinent. The market in the South West is mainly forfresh fish, very little frozen fish, and limited value-added industry.

Fish from Newlyn are transported by lorry to otherparts of the UK, or in most cases are taken viaPlymouth or Poole to the continent. Brittany Ferriesare reluctant to take fish lorries from Plymouthespecially during the summer months (as the smellwould not be pleasant for passengers), therefore itmeans a long journey by road from Newlyn to Poole.The South West is highly dependent on its road andferry links but these are presently inadequate for therapid transportation of a perishable product, which isvitally important to the region’s economy.

Key issues• Rising global temperatures are likely to reduce the

overall productivity of the oceans, affectingspecies across the entire marine food chain, fromplankton, to many fish species and seabirds.Such changes would exacerbate currentpressures on fish stocks, and would have seriousconsequences for fisheries in the region, whichare important to the local economy.

• There is recent evidence to demonstrate that fishspecies are changing in local waters. Fish areunable to control their body heat internally, but doso by swimming to waters that suit theirtemperature optimum. Fish are particularlysensitive to small changes in temperature,causing changes in distribution at the extremitiesof their ranges.

• New research shows increasing numbers of newsouthern fish species appearing in Cornish watersover the period 1960-2001 (Stebbing et. al. J.Mar. Biol. Ass.UK 2002)

• With the warming of the North Atlantic, there willbe significant losses of indigenous South Westspecies to the north (e.g. sea trout or cod may belost altogether from these waters.)

• Research has shown that recruitment is inverselyrelated to temperature for a number of codpopulations, particularly those at the southernextremity of their range. (e.g. CEFAS has shownsignificant losses of fertility in cod as the southernNorth Sea has warmed.)

“Recently spotted off the South Westcoast are the Knobbed Triton (the largest

marine snail), Sea Slug, Long SnoutedSea-horse, Trigger Fish, Garfish and the

Sunfish.New records of fish caught in the last 10

years include Pandora, Couche’s SeaBream, Spanish Mackerel, Long-fin Tunny,

Basking Shark, Hammerhead shark andThresher Shark. None of these species is

commercial.”

Tony StebbingUniversity of Plymouth


Specific Climate IssuesSignificant impacts can be expected on fisheries.Rising global temperatures are likely to reduce theoverall productivity of the oceans, affecting speciesacross the entire marine food chain. Such changeswould exacerbate current pressures on fish stocks,and would have serious negative consequences forfisheries in the South West, which are important to thelocal economy.

Areas particularly vulnerable are those in which a highproportion of the community is involved in the fishingindustry. These naturally tend to be coastal areas, andas such are also vulnerable to increases in sea leveland potential storm events.

Risks that have been identified include:

• Changes in fish stocks and populations couldhave significant impacts on local fisheries. Fishproduction will suffer if wetlands and otherhabitats that serve as nurseries are lost with sealevel rise.

• Stocks of more northerly species such as cod,sprat and plaice may decrease.

• Increasing sea levels and storm events coulddamage harbours and quays.

• Estuaries may become silted up leading topermanent dredging to ensure access.

• Increasing pollutants from concentrated river flowduring droughts and from leaching of agriculturalland during high rainfall may lead to poorerinshore water quality.

• The remobilisation of metalliferous mine andindustrial wastes due to storms and increasedwinter rainfall may pollute inshore waters andhave potential impacts on fisheries (larvae), andshellfish stocks.

• Climate change impacts are likely to exacerbateexisting stresses on fish stocks - notablyoverfishing and pollution.

There is however, potential for development ofrecreational fisheries for exotic southern species (tuna,shark) which would allow diversification and boost thetourism industry.

There may be new warmer water species foraquaculture (clams, goose barnacles, seaweeds etc).

Artificial reefs for surfing and diving may be developed,and diving in particular could benefit from theappearance of “rarities” with no commercial value.

Changes in fisheries policy will have dramatic impactson the local fishing industry, although it cannot beabsolutely predicted how these will take effect underchanging climatic conditions.

Any strengthening or weakening of the Gulf Stream asa consequence of climate change will affect thedegree of warming of waters around the region,

although it is noteworthy that the UKCIP02 scenariosdo not show any evidence for cooling.

The Way Forward• As one fishery disappears due to loss of the

species from the region’s waters, fishermen arelikely to move on to other species.

• A new vision is needed for fisheries managementinvolving stakeholders and government agencies.

• There is increasing need to renegotiate CommonFisheries Policy in light of climate impacts.

• There has been little work to date on the effects ofclimate change on commercial fish species, butthe upcoming regional-led MarClim study will beof great benefit in this area of research.

• A major barrier to be addressed is that accordingto stakeholders in the region, fishermen areunlikely to plan long term for changes in fishspecies and will adapt on a ‘day-to-day’ basis. Inother words, the industry is likely to be reactiverather than proactive without significant externalinputs.

• While it is likely that fishermen will adapt tochanges in fish species around the region’s coast,reductions in the overall productivity of the oceanswill exacerbate current pressures on fish stocksand thus the industry as a whole.

Recommendations

• Encourage the development of artificial reefs tocapitalize on the appearance of exotic species fordiving and recreational fisheries. This will result inimmediate benefits to the industry regardless ofthe pace of climate change as it is known thatexotic species are already appearing regularly inSouth West waters.

• Thermal boundaries for fish species are knownand therefore research should be enhanced intoshifting geographic ranges, which are presentlyless well understood.

• Continuous monitoring of key determinants ofenvironmental quality is essential to monitorchange in the region and encourage proactiveindustry responses.

“UKCIP forecasts suggested that withwarming, species will shift their distributions

pole-ward at rates of 50-80 km per decade.While this is a crude estimate, it proves rightfor the observed northward advance of 60 kmper decade of the Sailfin Dory over the period

1960 to 1995.”

Tony Stebbing, University of Plymouth


• Existing databases (e.g. ERICA, operated out ofthe Cornwall Wildlife Trust) providing long-termdata should be maintained, developed andutilised.

• At the present time very little is known about thechanges in fisheries in the region due to climatechange. Further research is required to provide abaseline of stocks and species presently found inthe region. In addition, continuous monitoring andthe upkeep of databases is required to identifychanges in fish species and stocks as well as tomonitor temperature changes in the marineenvironment.


Challenges + Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts to Marine Fisheries Domain

Climate Impact Challenges + Opportunities


C Changes in fish stocks in response to warming of inshore waters may resultin the loss of certain commercial fisheries and the development of others.

C An extended tourist season due to warm weather may lead to fish beingexported to the continent via Poole rather than Plymouth more frequently asthe ferry companies will not transport fish lorries from Plymouth duringsummer months, when the tourist trade takes priority.

C Trout farming is known to be highly sensitive to changes in watertemperature and quality. Changes in air temperature and in the nature andfrequency of rainfall events could have a significant impact on aquaculture.

C Increased water temperatures may also reduce microbial quality, leading toa deterioration of shellfish growing areas in the region.

O If sea temperatures increase, there may be scope for aquaculture of newspecies, which may offer opportunities for the industry to diversify andreduce pressure on existing stocks.

O Increase in southern species of fish and unusual sightings e.g. sunfish,sharks etc. may be beneficial for tourism.


C May extend the breeding seasons of specific species, again leading tochanges in the fisheries present in inshore waters.

C As for increased summertime temperature.

O May also enhance existing fisheries by extending breeding seasons.


C Aquaculture in the UK is largely tied to the farming of salmonids (e.g.rainbow trout, Atlantic salmon), mussels and oysters. Salmonids areparticularly susceptible to changes in water quality and climatic conditions.Temperature influences growth and, among salmon, the timing of sexualmaturity.

C Low rainfall will lead to low river flow and hence a concentration of thepollutants within rivers. This could lead to follow-on effects to marine lifewhen pollutants are carried out to sea.


C Potential detrimental impact of repeated CSO discharges into vulnerablecoastal waters, particularly in areas with bivalve shellfish.

C Potential for increased leaching of nitrate based agrochemicals intovulnerable inshore waters, which combined with elevated wintertimetemperatures, may increase the susceptibility of these areas to planktonicblooms. Vulnerable species are bivalve molluscs, particularly scallops andoysters. Closure of scallop fishery would have ongoing impacts on otherinshore fisheries with the displacement of effort.

O Inshore shellfish stocks may increase if fishing effort is reduced which mayenable more proactive management.

C Soil runoff from areas adjacent to subtidal and intertidal areas could lead tosilting up, species being smothered, increased water turbidity and shoreerosion.

Sea Level andTides Increased

C The increase in seawater in estuaries could change the dynamics of thesalt/freshwater interface and hence impact on the flora and fauna within.

C May lead to silting up of estuaries causing access problems and need fordredging.

C May lead to erosion of harbours and ports affecting fishing fleet.




C

C

Storm damage to harbours, quays and ports may effect fishing fleet.

Marine life of both subtidal and intertidal areas could suffer from an increasein sediment movement.

C

O

Reduced days at sea for both fishing vessels and fisheries patrol vessel

Reduced fishing effort may enhance fishing stocks currently under pressure


RIVERS, FLUVIAL FLOODINGAND DRAINAGE DOMAIN

ScopeImpacts of climate change on river andcatchment processes involving the transfer andstorage of water and sediment in watercourses.

Primary effects on water quantity in watercourses including flooding, low flows, surfacedrainage; and urban drainage. (see also WaterResources Domain)

Physical flood and low flow impacts on watercourses in different scales of catchments andphysiographic settings.

Human activities exposed to increased floodrisk.

(Some reference is also made to effects onwater quality and biodiversity in water coursesalthough this is mainly addressed in the WaterResources Domain)

See Also

Water Resources, Coastal, Transport,Biodiversity.

BackgroundThe hydrological character of selectedcatchments in the South West can besummarised as follows:

River Basinarea(km2) QMED QMAX Q95

Exe (atThorver-ton;1956-2002)

600 175 493(Dec1960)

1.96

LowerSevern (atHaw Bridge;1975-2002)

9884 493 872

(Dec2000)

20.51

Frome (atFrenchay;Bristol;1961-1988)

149 29 70

(July1968)

0.170

Tone (atBishopsHull; 1961-1993)

204 67 113

(Sept1968)

0.708

QMED - median annual maximum flood (FEH; shorterdataset than Qmax)QMAX - maximum floodQ95 - flow exceeded 95% of timeDates indicate length of gauged record for maximumfloodFigure 6.1Hydrological Character of River Catchments in SWSource: Flood Estimation Handbook (CEH, 1999)

When considering physiographiccharacteristics, catchments in the South Westregion occur at a range of scales, with adiversity of geological and physiographicsettings (see following table).

Location Hydrologicalregime

Specificexamples

lower Severnestuary with itsgatheringgrounds inmid-Walesand theMidlands

attenuatedpatterns of floodstorage; hightidal range(Severn bore)

areas offlood riske.g.Tewkesburyand AlneyIsland,Gloucester

low-lyingareas of theSomersetLevels

extensive areasof floodplain 2 mbelow high tidelevel of theSevern estuary

e.g. RiverParrett andTonecatchments

chalklandscapes ofWiltshire andDorset

broad flatbottomed valleyswith meanderingrivers

e.g. RiverAvon andWylye

small, steepsidedcatchments,drainingupland moorsrising to 600mwith bedrockat or near thesurface

flashy runoffresponse tointense rainfall

e.g. RiverLyn atLynmouth;River Pol atPolperro

wide valleyfloors withQuaternarydeposits

drainage intoformer workingsfor aggregateextraction

CotswoldWater Park

Figure 6.2Physiographic character of River Catchments in SW

It should be noted that the South West regionwhich is the focus of this study does notcoincide with Environment Agency’scatchment-based regions. The study areatherefore encompasses parts of theEnvironment Agency’s South West Region andpart of the Midlands and Thames Regions.

Water quantity and quality in water courses

The following baseline information is takenfrom the Environment South West RDAObservatory Web site.

In terms of water quantity, river flows can bemeasured against their long-term average toidentify yearly trends. A low point in river flowsin 1996 corresponds with low annual rainfall.Since then, flow rates have recovered andmost of the monitored rivers currently have flowrates greater than their long-term average.


Water abstraction has already had anunacceptable environmental impact byreducing river flows (e.g. on the Rivers Wylye,Avon at Malmesbury, Piddle, Allen, Tavy andTaw). Low flows on the Wylye, MalmesburyAvon and Piddle are caused by groundwaterabstraction by Wessex Water. A statement ofintent to restore acceptable flows on thesestretches of river by March 2003 has beenagreed by the Environment Agency, Ofwat,English Nature and Wessex Water.

Other low flow problems of major publicconcern are on the River Bourne, Nine MileRiver and the River Nadder. These are beingaddressed by the Environment Agency'sNational Environment Programme and inEnvironment Agency (2001) Regional WaterResources for the Future strategy.

In terms of water quality, river flows in theSouth West region are generally good, which isimportant for water supply, wildlife, visualamenity and recreation. In a recent survey(2001), the South West had the highestproportion of 'very good' quality rivers and thelowest proportion of 'bad' quality rivers inEngland.

Almost all of the region's rivers are of verygood or good chemical and biological quality(82 % in 2001 and 87 % in 2000, respectively).River water quality has improved significantlysince 1990 and compares favourably with theaverage (69%) for England and Wales.Significant improvements include parts of theRiver Wylye (Wiltshire), River Axe (Somerset),and River Tavy (Devon). Cornwall has thehighest proportion of chemically good or verygood quality river stretches in the region, basedon the Environment Agency's General QualityAssessment (GQA) scheme that measures thechemical and biological quality of rivers. Thereare, however, some reaches that are mining-affected and of poor quality.

A key water quality issue is eutrophicationcaused by an excessive build-up of nutrients(mainly phosphorus and nitrogen derived fromhuman activities) and affected by waterquantity/dilution as well as quality.Eutrophication in rivers and shallow lakes tendsto be evident through algal blooms andalterations to aquatic life through reduction inoxygen levels. Cotswold Water Park hasproblems with blue green algae in some of itsshallower lakes. Pilot Eutrophication ControlAction Plans (ECAPs) have been set up onSlapton Ley and the Hampshire Avon(Environment Agency, 1998c).

The lower sections of the River Creedy andExe, Bristol Avon, Hampshire Avon, TawEstuary, River Cober/Loe Pool and theTruro/Tresillian Estuary are affected by largesewage works and are designated as sensitiveareas (eutrophic) under the Urban WasteWater Treatment Directive that limits the levelsof nutrient discharge.

Salmon are present in rivers throughout Devonand Cornwall, and in the chalk streams ofDorset and Wiltshire. Their numbers are notsignificant in Somerset and Gloucestershire asthe catchment geology and generally lowergradient of the rivers is not ideally suited tosalmon.

Coarse fish populations are significant in riversto the east of the Region (e.g. the Dorset Stour,Hampshire Avon and Bristol Avon). Manynatural and artificial stillwaters and canalsprovide important fisheries.

Flooding

Flooding incidence can be considered in termsof causal and intensifying factors at basin,network or channel levels. Flooding can bebroadly conceptualised in three categories: (a)flooding associated with river and streamchannels including the ‘main river’ channelsmonitored by the Environment Agency; (b) localflooding due to saturation and sheet run-offfrom rural slopes; and (c) flooding of stormsewers as a result of urban or rural run-off (withsignificant responsibilities for sewer planningand maintenance held by water companies).Principal concerns expressed in the SouthWest involve the first category. However, on amore local scale the other types of flooding arepotentially very significant to property andtransport infra-structure (especially the roadnetwork). Sustainable Urban DrainageSystems (SUDS), piloted by the EnvironmentAgency, form a useful and expanding means ofaddressing urban drainage flooding as well asimproving water quality and amenity. Greaterplanning consideration in the urbanenvironment is being directed to increasingland permeability so ensuring that infiltration isoptimised (cf. surface runoff).

Historically major floods have been caused byboth longer duration rainfall events in largercatchments (e.g. River Exe, Dec 1960; RiverAvon, Bath and Bristol, July 1968) and intenseconvective storms in smaller catchments (e.g.August 1952 flood, River Lyn, Lynmouth; seeNewson, 1975). The latter event was one ofthe most extreme floods in a small UKcatchment and has been important inestablishing UK flood envelope curves.

In the South West region, riverine and coastalfloodplains account for between 5 and 10% ofthe land (see 1999 Indicative floodplain map ofEngland and Wales, IoH, Wallingford andEnvironment Agency). The EnvironmentAgency Web site supplies mapping of areas atflood risk to 1 in 100 year, or largest recorded,for fluvial events and 1 in 200 year, or largestrecorded, for tidal floodplain, but these figuresare based on historical data rather thanpredicted climatic conditions.


Where there are floodplain defences, thesefrequently require costly and ongoingmaintenance. There are 450 km of estuary andsea defences in the region and on 4,000 km of'Main River', there are 2,800 km of fluvial mainriver defences. In 1999/2000, over £20 millionwas spent on flood defences in the SouthWest. Cities (e.g. Exeter, Bath and Gloucester)and towns (e.g. Brunton) have locationsalongside rivers with some properties currentlyvulnerable to flooding (see Exeter Flood Plan;Brunton Flood Plan). Some areas, e.g. thelower River Severn at Gloucester, areundefended from major floods while being afocus for urban regeneration efforts.

Work with local communities andindigenous industries to develop new

economic opportunities, methods,equipment etc to help them cope with

changing circumstances, including theadverse effects of climate change.

Environment Agency’s Water ManagementStrategy Action Plan for the Parrett catchment .

2002

There are conflicting imperatives. The SouthWest faced its worst flooding for 53 yearsduring the winter of 2000/2001 (EnvironmentSouth West, 2002). Since 1996, the numbersof planning applications for residentialdevelopments on floodplains in the region hasbeen increasing (Environment Agency2000b/c). Climate change predictions indicatethat for some areas in the South West, theflows/levels that presently define a 1 in 100year flood may occur 1 in 10 years.

Climate change research studies suggest thata 20% increase in river flow would mean thatthe flows/levels that presently define a ‘once in100 year’ flood would occur around ‘once in 40years’.

Key Issues• Potential climate change impacts on water

courses in the region are very varied in boththe nature and scale of their impacts and inthe range of stakeholders affected.

Water quantity and quality in water courses

• Water temperatures in water courses in theregion will rise in response to increasing airtemperatures, but also as a consequence ofchanges in other meteorological parameterssuch as cloudiness and relative humidity.

• Changing river discharges, especially moreextreme low flows in summer months, willencourage higher stream and river

temperatures. In some watercourses,future rises in mean and maximum watertemperatures might be expected to be thesame as those in air temperature. Incontrast, in others the increase in watertemperature will be significantly less thanthat experienced in air temperature. Largerrivers at downstream locations are likely tosee greater changes than some headwaterstreams.

• Given the uncertainty surrounding thepredictions of many climatic variables, notleast precipitation, and the complexities ofdownscaling to small catchment areas,assessments of the major components ofcatchment hydrology (including watertransfer and storage) in a warmer worldhave a number of uncertainties. In watercourses, it is probably the quantity ratherthan the quality elements of thehydrological cycle for which the impact offuture global warming can be predictedmore readily, and with greater certainty.

• As the quality of water is strongly influencedby the quantity, predictions of future waterquality are less certain. This is becauseuncertainties in predicting impacts on theprocesses affecting water chemistry,sediment transport, etc. are superimposedon the uncertainties in predicting flowvolumes. Even quality parameters that arerelatively simple to predict, such as watertemperature, cannot be predicted withcomplete confidence in the future. This isbecause information on future values of keycontrols, such as solar radiation inputs isinsecure, and knowledge of likely futurechanges in channel morphology andriparian vegetation is incomplete.

• Rather more subtle and complex changesin water chemistry may be associated withchanging climatic patterns. These includethe impact of higher winter soiltemperatures and greater winterprecipitation, as well as higher summertemperatures and lower summer rainfalls.Cycling and storage of chemicals incatchment ecosystems could be influencedby changing hydrometeorologicalconditions, as well as more directly byplanting of different crops in response toclimate change.

• Initial research has suggested that for theSevern catchment (partly in the study area)increases in peak flow of around 20% for agiven return period could be experiencedwithin 50 years. In PPG 25, these arerecognised as preliminary findings withfurther work required. The nationalguidance indicates that these predictionsgive added incentive to maintain currentdefences, where they are justified, and toadopt robust and sustainable solutions


where defences are replaced. (NationalPlanning Guidance - PPG 25 Developmentand Flood Risk).

• Such considerations also add importance tothe need to evaluate the potential impact ofextreme events even where it may not beeconomic to contemplate high levels ofprotection. (National Planning Guidance -PPG 25 Development and Flood Risk).

The key is to be upbeat and indicate varyingdegrees of confidence. We need to startplanning for 50 years plus, but there are

major problems in getting people to thinkthis distance ahead.

Somerset Moors and Levels Partnership

• River managers in the region need up-to-date and systematic assessment of thepotential impacts of high and low climatechange scenarios on the quantity andquality of flow regime to developmanagement strategies in a climate changecontext. This information includes: changesto the quantity and quality of average flowpatterns and low flow conditions; and thenature and scale of changes in floodmagnitude, frequency, seasonality andduration across a range of physiographicsettings.

• The impact of increased flooding on othercatchment processes including soil erosion,sediment mobilisation and yield and landslipping also requires investigation.Changes in river flow regimes may lead tochanges in river morphology with bothdeposition and erosion being potentiallyaffected. Changes to sediment supply andpatterns of river sedimentation arepotentially exacerbated by land usepractices.

• Land use changes may also make soilsmore susceptible to erosion, and increasedwinter precipitation and storminess couldalso encourage the mobilisation of moresediment into rivers. Some soils that maybe mobilised have the potential to becontaminated by metals from mine wastes(particularly in Cornwall and West Devon).Actual soil erosion has increased in recentyears to about 6% of arable land, with halfof all land in the South West at risk(Environment South West; RDAObservatory Web site).

• Secondary impacts include changingpatterns of biodiversity in watercourses/water bodies and the changingsuitability of these habitats for specific

species (cf. those environments currentlyexperienced). For example, inlandtransgression of salt marshes may occur informer floodplain areas with increased sealevels. The relationship between sea levelrise, deposition in estuaries and ecologicalimpacts may also be complex.

• Land use and climate change have thepotential to be either antagonistic orsynergetic in their impact on water courses.Land use practices that exacerbate theimpact of climate changes need to beidentified and managed to reduce impacts.This involves practices that reducevegetative cover during periods withpredicted greater frequency of intensestorms or increase the proportion ofpermeable surfaces through sub-urbandevelopment.

• Flood risk managers’ activities within thecontext of the South West region have toevaluate: (a) the potential human andeconomic impact of increased extremeevents even though it may not be financiallyfeasible to consider higher levels ofprotection; (b) the relative merits ofstructural measures to mitigate againstincreased flooding in comparison tomeasures that involve adjusting of humanactivities.

• Mechanisms need to ensure more timelylinks between research into climate changeimpacts on rivers and the development ofinformed policy for river and flood riskmanagement.

The options appraisal should encourage theconstruction of flood defences that can be

easily modified, through incrementalchanges, in response to growing

confidence about the impacts of climatechange, thereby maximising the efficiency

of future investment decisions.

Environment Agency, Lower Severn Area

• There are important opportunities tocapitalise on recent public experience offlood risk and so improve publicunderstanding in the region of changingpatterns of flood risk in a climate changecontext.

• The potential impact of changing floodpatterns on existing exposed humanactivities and vulnerable floodplain groupsin the region needs to be established fordifferent climate change scenarios. This isparticularly critical given the potential forwithdrawal of insurance cover or increase ininsurance costs in the Severn area after theinsurance guarantee expires at the end of2002. The impact of possible changes in


the frequency and intensity of extremefloods on the insurance industry is beingappraised nationally.

• The appropriateness of existing engineeringstructures and design standards relative topredicted changes in flood magnitude andfrequency needs to be reappraised.

• A methodology is required for the evaluationand implementation of floodplain areas withthe potential for managed retreat (within theoptions of hold, retreat or advancedefences). Shoreline Management Plansprovide a vehicle for this type of assessmentin estuarine environments.

• Transport infrastructure will be exposed toan increased risk of flooding and associatedproblems from excess precipitation anddamage, as well as increased storminess.

• Unsustainable floodplain developmentneeds to be prevented in areas ofincreased flood risk. The planning systemmust be reviewed and adjusted to ensurethis control. Environment Agency evidenceas to the flood risk of the site needs moreweight in the planning process.

• If the substantial extra housing in the region(see State of Environment Report) is to beimplemented then the hydrological impactsneed evaluation in the context of changingrainfall intensities. Urban developmentstend to increase flood peaks and decreasethe lag time of peaks. This provides achallenge to ensure sustainable urbandrainage systems (SUDS) in a climatechange context. SUDS options need to beevaluated and designed carefully on acase-by-case basis and may not be suitablein every situation.

• Selected floodplain activities may requirerelocation from floodplains with debateddegrees of compulsion. New sustainableland uses on floodplains may need to beestablished.

• Lower flows mean lower levels of dilution ofcontaminants and resulting lower waterquality. Consent conditions for both waterabstraction by Water PLCs and pollutioninputs by riparian users to water courses,both regulated by the Environment Agency,could be applied more tightly.

Flooding

• Specific floodplain locations within theregion (e.g. River Exe, lower River Severn)are potentially vulnerable to increasedriverine flooding. (See also Coastal ImpactDomains.) Future inundation by extremefloods may well include locations beyondcurrent flood experience, and therefore

outside current Environment Agencyfloodplain mapping.

• Changes to storm surge patterns may alsohave impacts to riverine environments andflood risk through tidal lock in estuarineareas with a high inter-tidal range.

• Levels of flood protection offered byexisting flood defences will reduce.

• Organisations tend to base decisions onpast data rather than future-basedpredictions.

• There is a risk that insurance companiescould withdraw from insurance of propertieson floodplains that demonstrate increasingflood risk, which, combined with problems indealing with uncertainty may mean no orslow action among some stakeholders.

• The opportunity exists to shift in particularcircumstances from structural engineeringmeasures to more sustainable measuresincluding behavioural approaches such aseffective flood warning systems.

• There is scope for the EnvironmentAgency’s public awareness campaigns tobe refocused from highlighting risk towardstaking risk reduction measures.

• There are opportunities for agenciesinvolved in emergency flood risk planning towork together in preparatory, emergencyand review stages (and so improveefficiency of operation).

• Integrated management of floodplains canwork to reduce flood risk and enhancebiodiversity.

• Potential for climate change can be used toaid the business case for investment ininfrastructure (e.g. transport). It may not beeconomic to upgrade protection for a sitethat floods once every few years. If futureflooding is likely to occur more often, it maycost less in the long run if some investmentis made now.

• Increased application of Sustainable UrbanDrainage Systems (SUDS) and permeableground surfaces should be considered inurban environments as a means ofcounteracting potential under-capacity instorm-sewer systems resulting from higherrainfall intensities / frequencies.

• Responsible authorities, land-owners andregulators should work in an integratedfashion to ensure that inappropriate land-use management does not exacerbate thepotential for increased rapid overland flowand surface flooding.


The Way ForwardFlooding in the South West needs to beaddressed on an integrated catchment-widebasis and in a sustainable manner(Environment South West, 2001). There aretensions between engineering solutions thatwork to ‘control nature’ by maintaining andincreasing defences and adaptation agendas.

There is a need to adopt ‘robust andsustainable solutions’ in situations that allowthis. Environmentally sustainable solutionsinvolve increasing storage capacity by restoringfloodplain, modifying catchment runoff orcausing increased conveyance by deepeningand widening the channel.

There are strong organisational steers (e.g.within Environment Agency regionally andinsurance industry) and media pressure to getlocal, regional and national government andenvironmental regulators to respond toevidence of increased flood risk associatedwith climate change. In planning for flood riskin specific areas (e.g. on Somerset levels andlower Severn), there is strong evidence forlocal public ownership of flood problems borneof recent experience of extreme floods in thelast 5 years.

National guidance PPG 25 has a section onclimate change and sets development andflood risk at least partly in this context.National government policy on rivermanagement for flooding needs to beimplemented to meet the needs of changingflood risk at catchment scale within the region.

Local Authorities need to prevent furtherexposed development on floodplains unless itcan be demonstrated that property is notaffected by increasing levels of flood risk andthe problem of increased flood risk is notexported upstream or downstream.

Integrated planning and flood defencestrategies need to be considered at acatchment scale as outlined in English NaturePosition Statements and developed by theEnvironment Agency, English Nature, LocalPlanning Authorities and Drainage Boards.

Catchment Flood Management Plans (CFMPs;an initiative developed by DEFRA andEnvironment Agency) are being developed toprovide a strategic vehicle for consideringholistic approaches to flood management at acatchment scale. Best practice is for these toconsider climate change impacts as part oftheir broader remit. In addition, there areShoreline Management Plans (SMPs), whichare multi-organisation, high level strategicplans (comparable to CFMPs) that encompassestuarine areas. These plans have potentiallyoverlapping regions. For the lower Severn, theSMP extends upstream to Hawbridge, theCFMP extends downstream to Gloucester andthere are also CFMPs for tributaries that extendto the estuary.

It is important to establish ways in whichpotential impacts of changing flow regime,water quality (including temperature) andsedimentation patterns can be capitalised on ormanaged in terms of biodiversity and specificspecies habitats.

The government and the devolvedadministrations have already started to respondto the threat of climate change by buildingadaptation into many of their policies.Examples include revising the approach todevelopment on floodplains, improving floodwarnings and increasing public awareness offlood risk and further research into the potentialimpact of extreme flood events.

Continuing dialogue on effective adaptationstrategies should be encouraged - amongEnvironment Agency (at regional and nationallevel), Local Authorities, business, insuranceindustry, probably through a number offacilitator routes including the SWRDA, GOSWand professional bodies. Good practice needssharing nationally.

Barriers to change

There are a number of barriers toorganisational and individual change in floodrisk planning including:

• The cost of increasing the design limits ofexisting structures or adding to newengineering measures for flood riskmanagement. For example, in the Severnestuary, most structures are currently 1 in100 year but some are around 1 in 10. Thelatter are defences where capitalimprovement by the Environment Agencycannot currently be justified.

• The sheer number of organisations involvedin flood risk management including FloodDefence Committees, the EnvironmentAgency, Local Authorities and DrainageBoards. This issue is currently undergovernmental review.

• Catchment boundaries in the region (themost appropriate unit for managing landand water) do not necessarily coincide withgovernment regional and sub-regional;boundaries when approaching flood issuesat a catchment level (e.g. Severn estuary).

• The propensity for organisations to considershorter timescales in planning for climatechange e.g. 10 year rather than 50 yearover which more significant hydro-meteorological changes are likely to takeplace.

• The difficulties in organisations dealing withuncertainty and probability in assessing theimpact and issues associated with floodingin different climate change scenarios.


This being said, the majority of river managersin the South West are well aware of thepotential impacts of climate change on the riverenvironment. For some managers, climatechange means primarily engineering solutions,building larger structures to higher designlimits, rather than adapting human usage ofareas with increased flood risk.

Perception of changing flood risk within aclimate change context is of variable strengthwithin Local Authorities. Sustainability agendasare frequently higher profile. Some policystatements on flood defence make noreference to a climate change context andchanging flood frequency.

There is improved awareness by the generalpublic about flood risk issues in a climatechange context. However, the link to improvedadaptation to flood risk needs to bestrengthened in public awareness campaigns.

Knowledge and Information base

There is probably enough basic information forrivers in the region to attempt modelling of howfuture climate change will impact on river flows,groundwater levels and other quantitativeaspects of the hydrological cycle. There ismuch less detailed baseline information on thequality of rivers in the South West on which tobase future predictions.

Accessible future-based information on floodand low-flow impacts is required at a regionallevel.

Example of Good Practice

Community based residents groups (egAlney Island Gloucester) are acting to raise

awareness of adaptation needs. This isimportant in raising awareness of practicalsteps to reduce flood damage and taking

ownership of the problem.

There is considerable scope for basic researchinto how aspects of water quality will changewith global warming and for assessing theecological impacts of those changes in riversand other freshwater ecosystems.

There are no South West region-specific policydocuments relating flood defence and climatechange. There are, however, a number ofgovernment policy documents in this area andevidence that the sector is accessing and usingthe 2002 scenarios published by UKCIP, withina regional context. Sources used inconsidering adaptation possibilities include thegeneral media, UKCIP, DTLR, DEFRA.Specialists are using Hadley Centre and IPCCtechnical reports, conferences held by UKCIP,ICE and BHS and papers to Local FloodDefence Committees.

Environment Agency flood awarenesspromotions, recent flood experience and mediacoverage of recent extreme flood events withinthe region and UK mean that the lay public hashad more exposure to information about floodrisk than e.g. five years ago. The EnvironmentAgency will be producing indicative flood riskoutlines for the 1:1000 year floods and plans toput these on the Web by September 2003.Further investigation is required to see if thisinformation retains high profile or is convertedinto action to reduce losses.

Other stakeholders involved in flood hazardmanagement are variably informed aboutclimate change impacts. Wide rangingeducation and training need targeting atspecific areas of the sector e.g. some countycouncils.

There is a need for higher resolution datarelating changing meteorological inputs to acatchment’s hydrological response. Theimplications for water quantity and quality inwater courses can then be evaluated alongwith appropriate adaptation needs andstrategies at a regional level

There is a need to work towards improved floodrisk identification in a climate change context.Strategic planners for flood risk require moredetailed specialist information. The UKCIP2002 report covers the changing frequency ofthe extreme daily rainfall event. Transportmanagers, for example, need information aboutchange in frequency of extreme 5, 7 or 10-dayevents above a specific threshold andimplications of prolonged rainfall on flood risk.

Recommendations

• The impact of changing water quality/ waterquantity (flood and low flows) on habitatand biodiversity should be systematicallymonitored in a climate change context e.g.impact of changing temperature profiles onfish resources.

• A searchable database of hydrological dataon water quality/quantity data for the regionshould be made available to stakeholdersincluding the general public. Ideally thisshould draw on historic data, numericalmodelling and future predictions, possibly ina GIS-based system. The informationpresented should be Web-based and havea ‘Science and Society’ flavour withinterpretative tools. There is nothingcurrently with this interactive flavouravailable although the Web-based SWRegional Observatory has generalenvironmental information and synthesis.

• Regularly updated statistical analysis ofrainfall and river flow data using bothhistorical and ongoing hydrological datashould be undertaken, building on data andmethodologies in the FEH Handbook (CEH,1999).


Examples of Good Practice

Somerset Levels and Moors (Parrett) is oneof five pilot study areas being carried out

nationally to develop methodologies for theproduction of Catchment Flood

Management Plans. The Somerset Levelsand Moors Partnership has involved

stakeholders in appraising the impact ofhigh and low emission scenarios for the2050s on activities within the catchment.

• Experimental catchments should be set upwithin the South West to monitor theimpacts of climate change on catchmentswith different physiographic and land usecontexts. The monitoring resources of theacademic community, the EnvironmentAgency and regional Government need tobe focused to maximise potential for usefulscientific data to inform catchmentmanagement.

• The experience of recent extreme floodsneeds to be capitalised on in improvingorganisational and individual practice inadaptation for flood risk. This work isalready in progress within the EnvironmentAgency.

• Floodplain mapping for flood risk shouldconsider potential maximum probable floodscenarios in a climate change context.Status, resolution and limitations of themapping on the Environment Agency Website should be explicitly stated. This work isalready in progress within the EnvironmentAgency.

• There needs to be strong control on futuredevelopment within flood risk areas underpotential climate change scenarios. Thestatus of the Environment Agency in thereview of planning applications for flood riskshould be reviewed nationally. Theimplementation/success of current planningregulations for vulnerable land uses (e.g.caravan parks) in flood risk areas within theregion should be reviewed and evaluated.

• Models of good practice in planning forfloods at a catchment scale (throughCatchment Flood Management Plans)should be implemented as soon as possiblein other catchments with land uses at riskfrom flooding.


Challenges and Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts on Rivers, Flooding, andDrainage



C Increased soil moisture deficits lead to shrinking of peat soils in theSomerset Levels, lower surface levels and make flood waters harder toevacuate.

C Issues of health, contamination and spread of disease may occur onfloodplains that have recently suffered flooding.

C Water temperatures in water courses rise in response to increasing airtemperatures (also cloudiness and humidity).

C Changing river discharges, especially more extreme low flows in thesummer months, will encourage higher stream and water temperatures.

C Changing thermal regimes of rivers are likely to have diverse ecologicalimplications as water temperature has a strong impact on virtually everyfacet of the freshwater fauna and flora.

C Changes in water temperature may deplete dissolved oxygen levels andreduce the assimilative capacity of watercourses. It will alter chemicalprocesses, e.g. rates of denitrification, in streams and rivers.

C Increased evaporation from surfaces of shallow lakes (e.g. Cotswold WaterPark) will occur. Where high levels of nutrients are present, this mayencourage increased incidence of blue/green algae.

C Changes in water temperature may make river water a less efficient coolantin industrial processes.

C As river temperatures warm, game fish may become stressed and summergrowth could be reduced compared to present conditions. Rising winterwater temperatures may also have an impact on game fish spawning andsubsequent egg and alevin development.

O Longer working periods will exist for the maintenance of design standardsof operational flood defence works (funding dependent).


C Lower summer flows in rivers will lead to higher concentrations of dissolvedconstituents in water courses and reduced capacity to dilute effluentdischarges.

C Reduced water resources will exist for abstraction from water courses andfor the natural environment (although still risk of summer storms)


C More rapid snowmelt can lead to potential increase in flood risk

O Slight benefits are involved in flood defence maintenance – increasedgermination of grass seed sown out of season following earthworks.


C More robust designs will be required for rainwater disposal systems aboveand below ground.

C Decreased erosive resistance of flood embankments and soils with lowvegetation cover to intense rainfall events will have implications forsedimentation of watercourses.

O More water will be available in rivers but needs capturing and storing withincentives from water companies.

O Farming practices can adapt to ensure winter ground cover so thatsediment is not flushed rapidly into water courses in intense winter rainfall.



Increased Sea Leveland Tides

C Impacts on the magnitude, frequency, timing and duration of tidal lock onestuaries will have implications for the evacuation of increased fluvialflooding from upstream areas.

C Tidal limits will migrate inland and affect boundary conditions leading toproblems associated with river hydraulics

C Estuarine sediments could remobilise and some, in Cornwall and Devon,may be highly contaminated due to mining related sedimentation.

Longer GrowingSeasons andReduced Frosts

C Changes in farming practice (e.g. choice of crops) could affect flood risksdue to increased runoff and erosion.

O More maintenance work on flood defence structures could be achieved on-site during winter.

Flooding Increased C Improvements will be required to existing drainage systems and re-assessment of present criteria for new drainage systems in case higherspecifications are required (especially urban).

C Reduced effectiveness of existing defences may lead to the need foradditional works to maintain existing defence standards.

C Channel widening and dredging may only partly match predicted increasesin flood magnitude and required channel capacity to evacuate flowsdownstream.

C Increased flooding may enhance potential for increased scour around in-channel structures (e.g. bridge piers) with subsequent increasedmaintenance requirements.

O There is opportunity for introducing sustainable urban drainage systems innew developments, e.g. use of porous materials to allow more percolationof winter rainfall.

O There are commercial opportunities for enterprising businesses working inflood proofing, flood protection technologies or engineering structures forflood defence.

O Advice to developments and planners on flood risk has significant regardfor climate change effects.

O Flooded aggregate-extraction pits provide opportunities for integration inflood storage schemes in Catchment Flood Management Plans.Appropriate water management and extensions to capacity may benecessary.

O Potential to encourage new approaches of adaptation e.g. possible removalof properties most at risk from flooding, re-creation of floodplains, greateruse of washland schemes; control over detrimental land managementpractices etc.

O Potential for climate change to be used to aid the business case forinvestment in the infrastructure.

O Greater public awareness of danger of flooding will occur throughexperience with greater consequent support for the Environment Agency’swork.

O Management of floodplains in a climate change context can help meetbiodiversity targets (e.g. through floodplain retirement strategies).

O There is opportunity to integrate estuarine and coastal defence strategiesfor effective management of flood risk.


C Increased storminess contributes to increased risk of flooding andexacerbates impacts. This requires allowance in design of flood defences.


WATER RESOURCES

ScopeThe availability of and demand placed on wateras a resource for industrial, domestic andgeneral supply, for maintenance of aquaticenvironments, for generation of renewableenergy (hydropower) and for safe andsustainable disposal of sewage effluents andby-products.

This section deals with both the quality andquantity aspects of water resources thoughsome aspects of water quality are also referredto in the section on Rivers, Flooding andDrainage domain.

(Some reference is also made to effects offlooding on foul-sewer systems, thoughflooding as an issue is addressed principallythrough the Rivers, Fluvial Flooding andDrainage Domain)

See Also

Rivers, Fluvial Flooding and Drainage; Coastal;Natural Environment

BackgroundWater resources are managed principallythrough the suppliers and distributors (theSewage and Water Companies (part of SevernTrent, part of Thames Water, Wessex Water,South West Water); the water-only companies:(Bournemouth and West Hampshire, BristolWater, Cholderton and District) and the tworegulatory bodies (the Environment Agencyand OFFWAT). Sectors, companies andorganisations with particular interests in wateras a resource include inter alia those involvedin hydropower, food and drinks manufacture,brewing, chemical industries, mineralextraction, and paper production.

In terms of hydrology and water resources theSouth West region can be divided into threeareas roughly paralleling the South WestRegion’s three principal water company areas(Severn Trent: Gloucestershire; Wessex Water:Bristol and Avon area, Wiltshire, Dorset andSomerset; and SW Water: Devon andCornwall).

These areas are characterised by significantlydifferent topography, geology and catchmentsizes which influence variably all waterresourcing aspects outlined within the scope.Water supply in the Gloucestershire area ofSevern Trent is dominantly through riverabstraction and ground water. In the Wessexarea groundwater forms 80% of the supply,with 20% derived from surface sources(reservoirs and river abstraction), whilst in theSouth West Water area, 90% of the supply is

from surface sources and 10% fromgroundwater.

The South West Water area is served by anetwork of 17 smaller and older uplandreservoirs utilised now to provide the mainwinter water to local demand centres. Since the1970s, three additional strategic reservoirshave been constructed to supply waterthroughout the peninsular; these act ascontingency resources used when local supplyis required to maintain river flows. The easternarea (Somerset, Wiltshire, Dorset and Avonarea) is served by 12 impounding reservoirsand abstracted water from five main rivers.

Key Issues• Maintenance of critical river flows during

dry conditions.

• Management of abstraction licences withpotential increases in irrigation andindustrial demands.

• Impact of longer and increased frequencyof droughts on water supply;

• Modelled 4% rise in household waterdemand by 2021 factoring in climatechange.

• Increased turbidity in groundwater waterduring wetter winters.

• Increase flushing of nitrates into thegroundwater during wetter winters.

• Potential increase in Cryptosporidiumcontent of groundwater during wetterwinters, with consequent human healthimpacts.

• Uncertainty in replenishment rate ofaquifers.

• Potential salinity increases in boreholeand river-mouth abstraction points as aconsequence of rising sea-levels and/orstorm surges.

• Potential flooding of sewer networks.

• Potential need for re-engineering of seweroutfalls as a consequence of rising sea-levels.

• Difficulties in winter land-access fordisposal of sewage sludges onagricultural terrain.

The Current Situation

The limited number and specialised nature ofthe principal ‘players’ in controlling aspects ofwater resources has ensured that the potentialimpacts of climate change have beenconsidered in depth. Sophisticated analytical


tools and diverse strategies have been adoptedby the water companies and regulators.

Numerous reports have been produced both bythe Environment Agency and by the watercompanies, often in collaboration, such as inthe joint UK Water Industry Research Group /Environment Agency report by Arnell et al.(1997). This nationally based study providedwater companies with a method to includeclimate change impacts in the third assetmanagement plan (AMP3) discussions with theEnvironment Agency at OFWAT (Lonsdale,2000).

Additional studies on water resources anddemand prediction are underway and willinform AMP4 negotiations. In terms of climatechange, the 2020’s UKCIP scenarios are seenas the most relevant as the 2050s and 2080sscenarios lie significantly beyond the waterindustry’s thirty year planning horizon.

South Western partof South West

North and Eastpart of South West

Significant areas ofhigh elevation

More subduedelevation

Heavily dissected,steep sided valleys

Broader, shallowerangle valleys

Rapid run-off, flashyresponse rivers

Generally lessprone to flash floods

Largely impermeablebedrock

Permeable bedrockareas

Principally surfacewater resources

Significantgroundwaterresources

Demand Issues

Demand changes in the water industry arethought to be the most significant area ofsensitivity to climate change (EA, 1999: 41).The social trend towards lower household sizeis thought likely to lead to a significant increasein domestic water demand. Increasing livingstandards also create greater per capita wateruse. In one of the few studies of demandHerrington (1996) applied a micro-componentapproach to assess the impacts of climatechange on domestic use and forecasted a 3-6% increase in demand by 2021, with asuggestion of a marked increase in peakdemand.

With 6000 new homes built per year, the SouthWest Water company area is the secondfastest growing water company area (afterAnglian Region) in the UK.

In the South West Water Region the industrialdemand for water is, however, below thenational average but tourism is a significantfactor in terms of water demand. In the WessexWater region the Dorset Coast area (e.g.

around Poole) places an additional tourismdemand slightly above the national average forthe sector, whereas the peninsular South Westexhibits a highly pronounced (30%) summerpopulation bulge increasing the residentpopulation of 1.5 million by 0.5 million in eachweek of summer (more than 8 million visitorsper year). The potential impacts of thisincrease fall largely on the infrastructure interms of meeting peak demand, althoughcurrent predictions do not place the impactsbeyond that already accommodated by plannedinfra-structural improvements. There is,nevertheless, a need for an updated study interms of the new UKCIP02 climate scenarios.

Extension to the tourist season as a result ofmilder and drier spring and autumn seasonsand the increased popularity and marketing of‘short breaks’ may also place additionaldemand on the water supply. It is anticipatedthat this extension will not influence supplyadversely as it falls in season where riverabstraction is possible and unused river flowswould otherwise return water to sea.

In the South West Water area with no newschemes considered, demand predictionssuggest that water will ‘run out’ in 2011; withclimate change modelled, water runs out in2006-7, i.e. the effect of climate change is topressurise the planning strategy by up to fiveyears. Additional pump storage, leak-reductionand conservation strategies are in place toaddress this as part of the ongoing strategy.

The Swindon area forms one of the most rapidgrowth centres in the South West and waterresources may become an issue in the longerterm. Discussions over the need for a newreservoir in the Thames catchment have beenongoing for some years whilst the possibilityhas been raised of using a restoredStroudwater canal and the Costwold Canals totransfer water from the River Severn into theThames basin, utilising freshwater that wouldotherwise have been ‘lost’ to the sea.

Water conservation presents a significantproblem in estimating what impact individualusers have in terms of water saving. Theimpact of domestic water saving schemes(hippos etc.) is uncertain as there is limitedknowledge of the number of schemes usedwhilst double-flushing is thought to be an issue.There is also some concern that successfulhome-based water saving may result ininsufficient dilution of solid wastes in the foul-sewer.

Principal Water Resource Issues

In no priority order, the three principal issuesassociated with water resources are (i) watersupply and management; (ii) water quality; (iii)sewage transfer, treatment and disposal. (iv)maintenance of flow levels in rivers and waterlevels in aquifers.


(i) Water Supply and Management

Leakage

Historically, one of the main issues associatedwith water supply and management has beenthe issue of leakage. The major watercompanies in the South West have investedsignificantly in minimisation of leakage over thelast decade. This is reflected in a majorreduction in the forecast and actual demand forwater since the late 1990s

Water companies report that by 2003 leakagewill be reduced to or below the economicthreshold where cost benefit analysisdetermines that further leakage minimisation isnot cost-effective. Wessex Water report thatleakage reduction has turned a late 1990sdeficit into a surplus that, without considerationof the effects of climate change, is predicted tolast beyond 2030.

If future climate change were to havesignificant impacts on water resources then thewater companies and regulators would need tore-evaluate the threshold of this economic limit.Scope remains for further adjustment asleakage in some areas is predicted to shift from27% to 15% by 2005.

Precipitation Information

Water companies and the Environment Agencyhave invested significantly both in terms of theirown and contracted research in assessing thepotential impacts of climate change on waterresources. The main enviro-climaticparameters that are of concern are potentialsummer rainfall reduction, winter rainfall andevapotranspiration (as determined particularlyby ambient summer temperatures).

Most UKCIP98 (the first generation) climatechange scenarios (Hulme and Jenkins, 1998)for the 2050s showed an increase in annualaverage rainfall with, in terms of precipitation,increasingly wetter winters apparently offsettingdrier summers. However, the latest UKCIP02scenarios informing this study suggest that theeffective shift is towards an annual reduction inprecipitation (by up to 10%).

In the RegIS study of water resource issues inEast Anglia and the North West, modelling hasbeen undertaken to assess the vulnerability ofgroundwater recharge to 1998 predictions(Holman et al., 2001). However, despite theincreased precipitation overall in these models,the consequences of concurrent “moreclement” conditions were thought to lead to anincrease in the length of the growing seasonsuch that the duration of the winter rechargeperiod is reduced.

In addition, soils take longer to absorb water inthe autumn and begin to dry out sooner in thespring. These factors are important ingoverning whether or not increased annual

precipitation would necessarily lead to anincrease in groundwater recharge and totalannual river flow.

By inference, the latest scenarios (UKCIP02:Hulme et al., 2002) with an annual reduction inprecipitation, indicate that such groundwaterrecharge and annual river flow will tend more todeficit than the earlier work suggested. Detailedwork is needed in the South West, where intra-regional water resources are stronglydependent on a single water source type.

Results for the Wessex area in which themodelled duration of the 1976 drought wasextended suggest that climate change wouldreduce the water yield from 426 Ml/d (millionlitres per day) to 403Ml/d (i.e. a reduction of5.4%) by 2020.

One issue in the water resource industry is theprocess whereby precipitation data areconverted into hydrological data pertaining toriver flows and aquifer / reservoir replenishmentpotential. Again using the 2020’s UKCIP98scenarios (Arnell et al. (1997)), both WessexWater and SW Water have fed these resultsinto hydro(geological) models to facilitate longterm supply estimation.

Complex catchment-response models havebeen used by other companies (e.g. SevernTrent) but these require more work and areless readily transferred from catchment tocatchment. Potentially more work on rainfall-runoff models may be useful in the region.

Water Storage

The most critical of the hydrodynamic climatevariables is viewed as summer temperatureand precipitation. In the South West wheretourism significantly swells the population (inparts of Devon and Cornwall the population canincrease by 33% in summer) and ‘short-break’stays may increase in response to moreclement weather, especially early and lateseason, availability (water yield) and demanddrivers work together to stress the supplysystem. Balancing these opposing drivers is atthe route of resource strategies for the watercompanies. Climate change is recognised as afactor that may be significant perhaps withinthe planning horizon rather than immediately.

A significant control on the vulnerability ofwater stores to the potential impacts of climatechange is the responsiveness (or rechargerate) of the reservoir / aquifer. In the SouthWest smaller stores generally behave as one-season critical (i.e. they fill in just one season)and are potentially less sensitive to climatechange than the (usually larger) reservoirs thattake two or more seasons to fill. Indeed inmany cases, the small reservoirs may fill duringa single storm, and certainly early on undercurrent winter precipitation conditions.However, these smaller reservoirs tend toreach their lower volume limits earlier in the dry


season and prescribed minimum levels mustbe maintained to ensure river flow continues.

The larger reservoirs and aquifers providesufficient ‘usable’ storage to sustain excessdemand over summer recharge lows.However, in terms of efficiency of use anddistribution, being gravity rather than pump-driven supplies (pumping costs - energyconsumption - for some reservoirs approach£3k-£4k per day) the smaller reservoirs close tothe demand centres are the most economic.Water security issues - guaranteeing a supply -means that the alternative larger pumpedstores are necessary to supplement or replacethe local supply as the small reservoirs aredrawn down to their prescribed minimumlevels. Additionally, some areas are onlysupplied by the local ‘small’ reservoir withoutaccess to a wider distribution network and soreserves must be maintained for these.

Most of the water company research has beenbased on the UKCIP98 climate scenarioswhere the winter precipitation increases exceedthe summer decline, creating an annualincrease in precipitation total. However, theUKCIP02 scenarios predict an overall reductionin annual precipitation totals, suggesting furtherwork is needed to assess water resourceissues.

The potential impacts from the former scenarioare complex and depend on the critical factorsgoverning reservoir/aquifer recharge. Currentlymost small surface stores fill during the annualcycle, often in localised stores and the wetterwinters predicted will not supplement thesupply. In contrast, some larger groundwaterreserves (although reasonably responsive toprecipitation) and the larger surface reservoirscurrently do not fill on an annual cycle and sowetter winters may benefit these.

In broad terms, the principally groundwater-supplied Wessex Area may ‘benefit’ from suchrecharge especially in Wiltshire and Dorset,although in terms of the annual supply cycle,Somerset - being dominantly surface watersupplied (e.g. Clatworthy reservoir) - may beless ‘climate change proof’. In Devon andCornwall with 90% surface water supply, 75%of surface storage is in three strategicreservoirs (Wimbleball – 21,320 Ml; Colliford -28,540 Ml; Roadford – 34,500 Ml) with theremaining 25% of surface water in 17 smallerreservoirs. Wetter winters will again advantagesupply in the larger stores, whilst the smallerreservoirs will be more susceptible to demandpressures, not having the benefit of enhancedwinter top-ups.

Using the UKCIP98 scenarios aquifer rechargeis shown (Arnell et al., 1997) to be highlydependent on the particular climate model andthe geology of the aquifer. Thus groundwaterrecharge in Permian sandstones (e.g. the EastDevon aquifer) may increase by as much as14% by the 2020’s, whilst recharge of chalk

aquifers as in Dorset and Wiltshire may declineby up to 6% (see EA, 1999: 40).

In the Wessex area, dominated by groundwatersupply (the Wiltshire and central westernDorset aquifers supply most of the area – c.80% of the demand), most surface andespecially aquifer stores are large, tending tobe two-season critical (although the surfacereservoirs are mix of large and small stores).Currently the Wessex area is therefore morevulnerable to droughts of two years duration.

The smaller stores with small catchmentsfrequently experience no summer inflow in thepresent climate regime. Drier summers willtherefore have no additional impact in terms ofwater harvesting, although increasedevaporation under warmer conditions may haveadditional small effects. The reservoir supply(12 surface stores) in the Wessex area aremostly based in the catchments draining higherrainfall semi-uplands of Somerset.

In Hampshire winter flow ‘excess’ in the RiverAvon has been utilised to top up the BlashfordLakes (formerly gravel pits). Pipe links havebeen established which permit transfer ofgroundwater to the Somerset reservoirs in drysummers.

Given the importance of the groundwaterresource, Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR)trials have been adopted in Dorset. ASR treatssurplus surface water to drinking waterstandards when supplies are plentiful(principally winter) and returns this to theaquifer for use in peak demand periods. In fulloperation an ASR scheme is predicted tosupply in excess of 20 Ml per day (enough tosupply towns the size of Weymouth). Schemessuch as these may prove increasinglyimportant where abstraction excess and driersummers lead to late season low flows.Historically this has been a sensitive issue, forexample in the rivers Avon (at Malmesbury),Wylye (south Wiltshire) and Piddle (Dorset).

Abstraction and Pump Storage

In the South Western part of the region, theimpermeability of the regional geology and thesteep and heavily dissected nature of much ofthe terrain ensures that there is minimal or nosteady base flow and a need for significantsurface storage. The lack of steady base flowalso necessitates the reservoirs use as river-regulation points. This creates an additionaldemand on water availability as reserves arerequired to maintain river flows. Reservoirstherefore release water to maintain flow, andadditional abstraction points are located nearthe mouth of major rivers (e.g. Wimbleballreservoir releases water to the R. Exe, which isabstracted to supply Exeter; Colliford reservoirreleases to the R. Fowey; and Roadfordreservoir to the R. Tamar which is pumped toN. Devon).


Abstraction points are sited as close to tidallimit as possible, to maximise the effectivecatchment. The Environment Agency monitorsenvironmental and flow conditions to ensurethat appropriate flow levels are maintained.Management of these abstraction licences isan important process, particularly if demandpatterns or summer water availability patternschange. This tends to be a summer issuealthough some areas (e.g. Cornwall whichcurrently receives most of its winter water viariver intakes) could become vulnerable if multi-season droughts became more frequent.

In addition to downstream abstractionstrategies, water supply is also managedthrough pump storage schemes thatsignificantly enhance the water harvestingpotential of a catchment. Here, where thereservoir occupies one limb of a catchment,abstraction pumps are sited downstream ofadditional tributaries to utilise water fromparallel, un-dammed catchments. Duringperiods of high flow, water is pumped fromrivers to top up the local reservoir. Thisthereby maximises the effective catchmentwithout having reservoirs in all tributaries. Thisis done as long as flow permits (i.e. minimumdischarge) and top up is needed. For example,a tenfold increase in Wimbleball reservoir’seffective catchment is achieved through anabstraction license permitting pumpingbetween 1st Nov and end March. This permitsthe water to be drawn down from the reservoirat a greater rate, more secure in the knowledgethat a winter replenishment is readilyachievable. In effect this turns a multi-seasonreservoir into a single-season reservoir.

Offsetting Costs

Operation of these schemes is expensive,however, and the energy used in theWimbleball pumping scheme costs £3k-£4k perday. Increased useage of these schemes willtherefore impact on energy consumption andultimately water pricing. To some extent thismay be offset by local hydropower schemes: agood example is provided by the R. Taveywhich at one time was generating England’scheapest electricity whilst supplying power forseveral hundred houses. As this shows, wherewater availability permits, water companieshave the opportunity to mitigate against climatechange.

Roadford and Burrator reservoirs generateenergy continuously on river-compensationflow via supply release. If at certain times ofyear the supply control curves permit, releasecan be made specifically for power generation.This is particularly appropriate in reservoirsconstructed relatively recently as eachreservoir has a 50 years planned lifetime. Newreservoirs therefore have over-capacity in theirearly life and can release water to generatepower without prejudicing water supply. Such

generation also favours the water companies interms of the climate change levy.

Sea Level Rise

Rising sea level is a potential issue in acomponent of the integrated water resourcesstrategy. Two potential operations are at risk.First, the abstraction of the low-flowcompensation water at the mouth of majorrivers (e.g. the River Exe). Abstractiongenerally occurs as low down the system aspossible, i.e. close to the tidal limits of aparticular channel.

Sea level rise solely or in combination tidalsurges may lead to a greater incidence orfurther penetration of up-river salinepenetration on the high tide. This could resultin periodic shut-down of the major abstractionpumps. As several abstraction points arerelatively close to current maximum salineincursion limits, this is viewed as a long-termthreat. Nevertheless water companies mayneed to consider the potential for suchintrusions when undertaking AMP 4 review.

A more significant threat is the potential forsaline intrusion of key aquifers. The mostsignificant of these is the East Devon aquifer(supplying 10% of SW Water’s supply). Twolocations may be at significant risk. First, theOtterton boreholes related to the River Otter.Two production bore holes supply water with11 observation boreholes surrounding theseused to measure water conductivity and water.This monitoring is in place so that warnings canbe issued, enabling automatic abstraction cutbacks.

Secondly, additional problems may occur in thePermian sandstone aquifer at Dawlish (which isa first resort local source with good quality andcheap water), which is environmentallyacceptable - the Otterton water wouldotherwise flow out of cliffs.

Sedimentation

Climate change and changing agriculturalpractice may have a direct influence on land-erosion and subsequent re-sedimentationwithin reservoirs. Potentially this could impacton long-term resource planning by reducing theavailable storage volume of sensitivereservoirs.

(ii )Water Quality

Chemical

Whilst maintenance of water supply is perhapsthe most readily appreciated issue in terms ofpotential vulnerability to climate change, themaintenance of water quality may in fact posea more substantial problem. The principal


modes of vulnerability are associated with anincrease in leached agrochemicals, surfacesediment and contaminant run-off and apotential increase in water-borne pathogens.

Nitrates and phosphates are the principalagrochemical inputs which are monitored inrelation to drinking water standards and theconcentration of nitrates in particular has beenshown to have a strong seasonality, withsignificantly elevated levels occurring in wintermonths.

It appears that higher groundwater levels resultin higher concentrations, with soil nitrates beingcaptured from by rising groundwater to flushedthrough following intense rainfall. However,there remains significant uncertainty in manyinstances as to the relative importance of:(i) inputs increasing as a result offlushing/leaching of agrochemicals followinghigher precipitation; and(ii) relative concentrations decreasing asa result of increased discharge (see EA 1999:41).

Nitrate levels are considered more of an issuein the groundwater dominated Wessex Waterarea than in the peninsular South West thatalso has a less significant proportion of landuse associated with arable agriculture. Wetterwinters, as predicted in the UKCIP02 scenariosare thought likely, by Wessex Water, to lead toan increase in nitrates during winter months.

Biological

In the SW Water area a potentially greaterconcern is the increase in water-bornepathogens, in particular Cryptosporidia. Theoocysts of the Cryptosporidia which can causesevere gastro-intestinal disruption are too smallto be filtered from the water at a rate sufficientto meet water demand. They are also noteasily detected by direct monitoring. However,the close association between Cryptosporidiumoccurrence and suspended sedimentconcentration allows the Drinking WaterInspectorate (DWI) to require automatic shut-down mechanisms at abstraction points thatare triggered when water turbidity exceeds aprescribed value.

Increased rapid run-off as a result of potentialstorminess increases and wetter winters mayresult in increased incidences ofCryptosporidium contamination. It is thoughtprobable that more clean-up plants will berequired to counteract the potential increase inCryptosporidium events.

A notable Cryptosporidium event occurred inthe South Hams area of Devon in 1995,following heavy rainfall after a prolonged dryperiod.

Algal blooms and eutrophication (excessivenutrient enrichment) also have the potential to

increase in response to the warmer and drierconditions predicted by UKCIP02 scenarios.

The latter is a particular problem toconservation and biodiversity, but also impactson water quality. In addition to nutrient status,the decreasing solubility of gases in warmerwaters, with consequent reduction in thedissolved oxygen holding capacity is a majorfactor controlling eutrophication. Algal bloomshowever are more serious in terms of watersupply and can lead to harmful toxicity levelswithin standing water masses such as lakes,canals and reservoirs.

Elevated temperatures occurring when waterlevels are low can lead to a lack of oxygenationand turn-over in the water column. Shallowwater is particularly sensitive in this respectand depleted reservoirs may be morevulnerable. It is possible that some reservoirsmay need minimum water levels to be revised.The Roadford, Clatworthy and Upper Tamarreservoirs have all experienced bloom andeutrophication impacts and more work may beneeded to investigate the potential elsewhere.

Agricultural catchments are particularlyvulnerable to eutrophication and algal bloomsas increased nitrate and phosphate levelsenhance the conditions for their occurrence.The increase in temperatures is likely to see anincrease in early and late seasonphytoplankton growth as the favourabletemperature range is 10oC to 20oC with adecline in growth rate occurring only after 25 oC(Arnell et al., 1994).

Organic Material

Other water quality issues (EA, 1999) linked toclimate change relate to:(i) treated sewage effluent(ii) changes to soil matrix; and(iii) agricultural waste products and manures.

Agricultural activity in the South West formssignificant sources of pollutants. However, inmany areas sewage treatment works form theprimary source of pollutants in rivers (EA,1999) and the treated effluent contributes muchof the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) andammonia load which reduce dissolved oxygenconcentrations. Higher water temperatureslead to increased rates of biological activity witha tendency to reduce in-stream oxygen levels,although the potential enhancement of aquaticplant growth and photosynthesis could offsetthis. Temperature-driven reduction of in-streamoxygen levels could be compounded by adecrease in water levels.

Given that sewage treatment works are moreefficient at higher temperatures it is uncertainwhether climate change will have positive,negative or neutral effect on this aspect ofwater quality. Nevertheless, at certain times ofthe year if river flows are greatly reduced sewage


treatment plants will have a negative effect onwater quality due to the lack of dilution. This willbe compounded by the fact that populationincrease is significant in dry periods due totourists and therefore sewage treatment worksare treating higher flows of concentrated sewage.

Drying, however, has a pronounced effect onsoils particularly where clay-rich. Shrinkageand cracking during desiccation is followed byswelling after rain. The cracks and fissuresremain sometime after the onset of rain.Nutrients and other active chemical agentswhich would otherwise by adsorbed by the clayparticles or taken up by plants, are more readilytransported to the groundwater and watercourses.

In the water companies a major concernprincipal relating to climate change is thepotential for increased winter precipitation tomagnify the run-off related risk of point-sourceagricultural pollution.

(iii) Sewage Treatment and Disposal

The impacts of climate change on sewagetreatment work capacity and size of sewers areregarded by water companies as beingprobably of greater significance than directwater resource issues. The network of foulsewers is largely 19th or early 20th century andits capacity and state of repair are such thatsignificant investment is required. Theimpression given by the water companies in theSouth West Area suggests that this issue maynot have received as much attention as in theLower Severn area in the north of the Region.

The main issues are seen as:

(i) over-flow of the foul sewer into settlementareas(ii) overwhelming of sewage treatment worksby river flooding, direct run-off or interception ofurban storm run-off by foul sewers(iii) overwhelming of storm sewers by surfacerunoff intensities greater than designcapacities;

(iv) over-performance of treatment plantssetting the norm against which water qualitytargets are set and therefore potentiallyrequiring investment in plants that are not‘over-performing’.

Domestic and settlement-area contaminationfrequently occurs following flooding. Whilstconsented sewer outfalls (CSOs) permitsewage overflow into rivers during floods, theissue of backing-up still occurs when waterlevels are high. Individual properties can beprotected against sewer back-flooding by theintroduction of one-way valves. New-build andre-plumbing schemes may be advised toincorporate such valving where properties arelow-lying. However, localised flooding isincreasingly caused by run-off excess which is

inherently less predictable; the identification ofproperties at risk is not straightforward. Sitingof new CSOs is probably best considereddown-stream of settlements to minimisepotential contamination.

Overwhelming of sewage treatment works byriver flooding, direct run-off or interception ofstorm run-off by urban foul sewers is an area ofconcern particularly in relation both toincreased winter precipitation and the potentialincreased storminess. Whilst many sewagetreatments plants are over-sized toaccommodate for growth and safety marginsthere is still potential for plants to beoverwhelmed as a result of increased run-offlikely though climate change. In the AMP4price review, water companies may push forclimate change to feature in the costing of over-sizing of sewage treatment plants.

Over performance of sewage treatment plantsis commonplace, though varies depending onwater company strategies and in someinstances the outflow may have a positiveinfluence on the water quality downstream. Asclimate change may be a driver to generallylower water quality (increased nitrate fluxes,temperature increases, eutrophication etc.)there is a potential concern that over-performance may be required or may needenhancement.

Regulators such as the Environment Agencymay need to tighten consent in order to followprotocols such as the Habitats Directive whichrequires ‘no deterioration’ in the quality of watercourses. In contrast to this, where ‘over-performance’ is not occurring, summer low-flows may impede future consents to dischargefrom sewage treatment plants. Whilst low flowswill impact on treated sewage discharge in allcatchments, smaller, lower category plants,usually in smaller catchments are most likely tofall into this category and the peninsular SouthWest (Devon and Cornwall) is most likely to beat risk here.

Sewage sludge remaining after the fluidelement has been discharged is posing anincreasing problem. Disposal at sea is nolonger permitted and the British retailorganisations (especially the supermarkets) areconcerned about disposal on agricultural land.Frequently the supermarkets insist that theirsuppliers’ land does not receive sewage sludgedressings, and in all instances where sludgesare disposed on land the supermarkets requireprior treatment. Where land is available, wetground conditions prevent the disposal of thesludges as access is not possible. Climatechange is thought likely to exacerbate thisdifficult issue, with additional threats posed byrapid nitrate wash-through following winterdressing.


iv) Maintenance of flow levels in rivers andwater levels in aquifers

Low flows in rivers have been discussed in theabove section in relation to water quality andsupply and in the Rivers, Flooding andDrainage Domain. Additionally, it is important tostress the significance of the EnvironmentAgency’s Catchment Management Plans(CMPs) and abstraction managementstrategies that have responded to the potentialfor climate change. The latter are particularlyimportant in relation to consents for agriculturaland industrial abstraction that may haveparticular impact on headwater drainagesystems and local aquifers.

Perceptions and levels of understanding

Climate change is an issue owned convincinglyby the water companies and the EnvironmentAgency. Studies have been undertaken toassess water resource predictions etc. usingthe UKCIP98 scenarios.

Public awareness of the water resource issueis increasing through the educational role of theEnvironment Agency and the water companies.The level and consequences of this knowledge(e.g. use of grey water, hippos etc.) is,however, uncertain and partial. More effort isneeded in terms of education and this isreflected strongly in the findings of theCheltenham Climate Change Forum (2001),both in terms of water resources and moregenerally.

The Way ForwardIn general terms there appears to be a gooddegree of cooperation between the waterindustry and its environmental regulator (theEnvironment Agency). OFWAT reports that itis following the climate debate with interest andtakes advice from the Environment Agency onall matters connected to climate change. It isclear that water companies and regulatorsneed a common base – to agree climatechange is an issue and then engage in an in-depth three-way debate. There is somedisquiet surrounding the opposing demandsrequiring the water companies to assumeresponsibility for water conservation whilstencouraging householders to move to watermetering (e.g. 34% of SW customers are onmeters). In effect, companies are asking forwater -conservation with a reduction in theirincome as the consequence.

In terms of water supply, a trend towardshotter, drier summers is the most significantclimate prediction. The UKCIP98 scenarios didnot reveal any major, unconsidered issuesassociated with water supply. The researchand development agendas of the watercompanies have responded well to these

predictions, but continued work is required toassess the UKCIP02 scenarios.

A critical issue may be the difference inpredicted annual rainfall trends, and itssignificance for recharge vs. draw-down asdiscussed above. However, it does seemsprobable that only the longer droughts will be ofparticular significance, with the impact ofpredicted rainfall variability - in particularseasonal shifts - being of lesser importance.These longer droughts, which were notpredicted in the UKCIP98 scenarios, wouldchallenge the 2-season reservoirs and thepump-storage schemes that have convertedlarger 2-season stores into operational 1-season reserves.

Recommendations

The climate change issues have clearly beentaken seriously in the water resources sector.Indeed, whilst there are clear areas of potentialdisagreement between the water companiesand their regulator (the Environment Agency),the public-private partnership that theseorganizations have developed should beviewed as an example of good practice in theclimate change debate. It is clear that much ofthe research informing climate change scienceis derived from the research teams establishedby the Agency and by the water companies,both separately and in partnership.

Greater effort is needed to enhance the public(i.e. the domestic consumer’s) knowledge ofthe potential impact of climate change and theirindividual abilities both to adapt to and mitigateagainst climate change.

Climate Change as an economic andenvironmental driver needs to be factored intopolicy more strategically by OFWAT than iscurrently the case.


Challenges and Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts for Water Resources Domain

Summer Rainfall C Increased risk of water demand rises leading to reservoir draw down.

Reduced C Increased risk of algal blooms and eutrophication in reservoirs containingreduced water levels and low inflows.

Winter Rainfall C Increased run-off may lead to over-stressing and backing up of sewer network.

Increased C Problems with transfer of sewage sludges to agricultural land though difficulty inspreading and land access.

C Increased potential for nitrate flushing into water stores and courses.

C Increased potential for soil erosion and sedimentation.

O Greater potential for increasing water releases for hydropower.

O Greater potential for one-season recharge of larger reservoirs and aquifers.


C Potential for saline incursions into water abstraction plants near river mouth(e.g. Exeter).

C Potential for saline incursions into groundwater abstraction boreholes (e.g.Dawlish).


C Potential for an increased growing season could lead to more intensive land useand greater incidence of winter ploughing, with associated sediment erosion intoreservoirs and storm sewers.

Flooding Increased C Potential over-loading of sewage treatment plants.

C Floods can lead to over-stressing and backing up of sewer network.

C Distribution may be affected adversely by localised flood events.


C Increased potential for soil erosion leading to elevated turbidity andcryptosoridium contamination of drinking water.


Summer Temperature C Increased evaporative losses from surface water stores.

Increased C Increased risk of water demand rises leading to reservoir draw down.

C Increased risk of algal blooms and eutrophication in reservoirs containingreduced water levels and low inflows.


CHAPTER 7

SOCIETY AND INFRASTRUCTUREDOMAINSLIKELY IMPACTS & POSSIBLEADAPTATION RESPONSES

IntroductionThis section considers those domains in theSouth West which fit broadly under the heading of‘society and infrastructure’. Such headings arenecessarily arbitrary but have proved useful inprogressing and reporting on the study. So, thesection explores the following impact domains:

1. Built Environment

2. Health

3. Heritage

4. Housing

5. Transport

6. Utilities

(For details of the methodology adopted forresearching and reporting on these domainsplease see Annex 2.)

This introductory section precedes the detailedconsideration of each domain and considerssome of the general issues that relate to climatechange and its impact on ‘society andinfrastructure’. A brief discussion of these generalissues is followed by a summary table ofrecommendations.

Physical InfrastructureThe physical infrastructure of buildings, bridges,power transmission lines, transport (road, rail, air)and heritage (both natural and built) is vulnerableto most aspects of climate change. Thenecessary lead-time and investment periodsjustify serious risk assessment based onUKCIP02 scenarios. Whilst changes in averageconditions (e.g. increased rainfall in winter) willhave some effect on infrastructure, it is mainlychanges in extreme conditions that will have thegreatest impact. For example, although theUKCIP02 scenarios do not suggest any significantoverall changes in windiness and storms, thelikelihood of extreme one-off wind and stormevents will increase, and it is these that will causephysical damage. The main impacts are thereforelikely to include flooding (riverine, coastal andurban) and wind damage.

Climate change will affect energy demand, withreduced heating requirements in the winter,probably offset by increased demand for summercooling. Of particular importance to the region isthe potential opportunity for renewable energy:

biomass, vegetable oils, solar, hydroelectric, windand wave power are all areas upon which climatechange will impact. More work is required tounderstand better the subtle impacts of thedifferent climate variables.

LifestyleLifestyle will influence climate change (throughpatterns of energy usage, transport etc) and beinfluenced by it (through choices in holidaypatterns and destinations, increased al frescoeating etc). Such changes are elusive and thereis little literature on the subject. Nevertheless wecan look to examples of societies and culturesthat operate in the type of climates that weanticipate, as an indication of the way that societyin the region may develop.

We have identified some possible lifestyle impactsin the South West. These include the increaseduse of bicycles and walking as modes oftransport; increased use of external spaces inurban areas (with a consequent impact on thestreet scene); increased outdoor recreation (withpotential improvements in general health); butexposure to radiation and associated cancer risks.More research is required to track possiblelifestyle changes and their wider implications.

The Management of ChangeThe management of physical infrastructure will bedealt with in very different ways. Existingstructures may need modification toaccommodate new weather conditions, but inmost cases it has been judged that the cost ofmodifying existing structures to cope withincreased vulnerability is too great to justify thistype of investment. Obvious exceptions includeimprovements to certain flood defences. On theother hand, new buildings and structures can bedesigned with these future scenarios in mind.Technical standards, codes and regulations needto change to reflect the anticipated climate.

Adaptation responses must be managed in a waythat does not exacerbate the global warmingphenomenon by increasing greenhouse gasemissions. In the built environment there is thepotential need for increased cooling in summer:conventional responses would install fans, air-conditioning or similar cooling devices, all ofwhich will increase energy consumption, andtherefore increase global warming. This is avicious circle that must be avoided.

There are philosophical and political implications,as well as economic ones, in considering howbest to manage some of this change. Generallydecisions will be more easily made in the publicsector, particularly at the large scale, if climatechange attains sufficient priority. Some aspectsof the private sector can be controlled bylegislation, regulation, fiscal policy etc. Perhapsthe biggest challenge will be influencingindividuals and householders to adapt to thechanging climate in ways that do not make theglobal climate even more challenging.


Recommendations for Society andInfrastructure Domains

• Review regional infrastructure for transportand utilities in order to identify further areas ofvulnerability to climate change over a longtime scale.

• Review opportunities for increased productionof renewable energy as a result of potentialclimate change: e.g. wind, water turbine; solar;biomass; wave; tide; biofuels.

• Undertake further research into lifestylechanges associated with climate change,including the implications for the sociallyexcluded.

• Change relevant codes and standards toreflect anticipated climate conditions,particularly with regard to increasedsummertime temperatures, grey watersystems, and increased exposure to drivingrain and wind damage from extreme events.

• Invest in research into offshore renewableenergy sources - wind, wave energy, andreassess the environmental and economiceffects of the Severn Barrage.

• Design new buildings to anticipate reducedheating load in winter and passive cooling insummer.

• Investigate passive or low energy techniquesfor increasing ventilation rates and cooling forexisting buildings in higher summertimetemperatures.

• Increase awareness amongst those withresponsibility for developing and managinghousing stock: (including housing developers,Registered Social Landlords, local authorities,Housing Corporation, designers, and owner-occupiers).

• Include adaptation to climate change withinregional strategies for sustainableconstruction.

• Review potential impacts of extreme events(storms, floods, high temperatures, etc.) ontransport infrastructure (road, rail, air,shipping) and undertake appropriate riskassessment.

• Review enhanced specifications ofmaintenance regimes for transportinfrastructure (road, rail, air, shipping).

• Encourage pedestrian and cycling modes oftransport where improved climate conditionspermit.

• Undertake feasibility studies for alternativeand diversionary routes for those strategic railand road routes that are threatened byclimate change impacts and extreme events,and lobby at national level as appropriate.


BUILT ENVIRONMENT DOMAIN

ScopeThe design, construction, maintenance and useof all building types; other engineeringstructures and systems (except transport andutilities infrastructure). Aspects specific to thelocation, design and construction of housingare dealt with in the section on HousingDomain.

See Also

Housing, Utilities, Heritage, Water Resources,Environmental Technologies.

BackgroundData on the existing regional building stock iselusive. Available data is split broadly betweenhousing and other building types. There wereapproximately two million dwellings in theregion at the 1991 census. The amount of non-domestic floorspace in the region is indicated inthe 1994 figures below.

Use Category Floor area (,000 m2)

Offices 5,000

Retail 9,000

Warehouse 7,000

Factory 18,000

Others 17,000

Total 56,000

Around 50% of the retail provision and 40% ofthe office provision pre-dates 1900.

Industrial development reflects the nationalpattern of 19th century factories andwarehousing being replaced by new post-warindustrial estates, many of which are in new,out-of-town locations. Overall the trendstowards national and international approachesto building construction mean that most of therecent (post 1950) buildings will have nationalrather than regional characteristics.

There is a growing expertise in, and examplesof, ‘Sustainable Construction’ in the region.Architects such as Fielden Clegg Bradley, Galeand Snowden and The Somerset Trust forSustainable Development provide regionalexpertise and examples of good practice. (Seealso Future Foundations.)

Key IssuesAdaptation issues in the built environment mustbe addressed within the wider context of theconstruction industry to have any meaningfuleffect. This is reflected in many of the pointsraised below:

• The design and construction of buildingscontinues to keep pace with generaleconomic growth, and will continue to makeup a large proportion of the national andregional economy.

• The expected lifespan of new and existingbuildings (say 20 to 100 years) allowsissues related to the built environment canbe considered over a similar time period tothat of current climate change predictions.

• Building Stock is replaced at about 1% perannum. So, as well as considering designstrategies for new-build, it will be importantto consider the refurbishment andmaintenance of existing buildings toaccommodate climate changes.

• Restructuring of the industry will lead tolarger UK based companies and thegeneral European-isation of the industry.This will apply to contractors and thosecompanies providing building materials,products and components.

• Changes in design and construction inresponse to the sustainability agenda willincrease, driven by central and localgovernment policy and Europeanlegislation.

• The location of new developments musttake account of the increased potential forcoastal, riverine and urban flooding.

• Different strategies are required to deal withboth the design of new buildings andstructures and the management andmaintenance of existing building stock.

• There will be increasing emphasis on theneed for the cooling as well as the heatingof buildings, especially in the southern partof the region.

• Practical technologies are required for thepassive cooling of buildings (both existing

It’s really good that you are doing thisstudy in this way. Its not until we take a

look at climate change in this sort ofdetail that we realise how important it

could be.

Architect in SW Region


and new) in order to avoid further releasesof greenhouse gases in energy-consumingcooling, ventilation and air-conditioningplant and equipment.

• Increased solar radiation should improvethe performance of solar panels,photovoltaic cells etc. throughout theregion and especially in the south. Moreinformation is required on the incidence ofcloud cover and other climate features tounderstand the full impact.

• The reduction in demand for heating willreduce heating costs although the capitalcosts of heating installations will probablyremain the same, in order to cope withcontinuing cold spell conditions.

• The impacts on site constructionprocesses are not considered to be great.Generally site conditions will be improved(e.g. less days lost through frost) thoughthere may be increased vulnerabilityduring the construction process fromwinds, rainfall and storms, especially inexposed locations.

• Increased use of existing technologies isrequired to reduce the consumption ofmains potable water in buildings (bothexisting and new), especially in summer.

• Both existing and new buildings may beexposed to higher intensities of driving rainin winter, making certain types ofconstruction vulnerable (e.g. cavity filledwalls).

• There is considerable scope for linkingadaptation strategies for the builtenvironment in response to climatechange to the growing understanding ofsustainable building construction.

• A combination of sustainable constructionand responses to climate change,particularly increased temperatures, couldlead to a regional (or sub-regional) 21st

century vernacular construction.

• There are potential lifestyle changes,particularly to do with the greater use ofthe external environment associated withbuildings, both public and private.

• The construction industry is ill-informedabout, and ill-prepared for, climate changeimpacts. Wide ranging education andtraining is required across the whole sector.

• There is considerable need to increaseawareness of potential climate change andimplications for the whole of theconstruction industry, particularly buildingdesign.

• Finer grain data on some climate variablesis necessary to determine appropriateresponses. e.g. extremes of temperature,solar radiation, diurnal temperaturechanges.

• Standards and design criteria withinexisting industry practice guidelines willneed modification. It will also be essential toshift sector use of meteorological data fromhistorical to future based data.

• Commercial opportunities exist fordeveloping regional expertise in passivesolar heating, cooling, shading and othersuch environmental technologies.

Traditional buildings in, for exampleFrance, may provide exemplars fordesign and construction details tocope with new climate. e.g. smallwindows, high-ceilings, external

shutters, internal reflecting blinds.

Building Stock is only replaced atabout 1% per annum. So, as well as

considering design strategies fornew-build, it will be important toconsider the refurbishment of

existing buildings to accommodateclimate changes.

Lowe 2001

There is already expertise in thedesign of sustainable buildings in

the South West Region. This can beexploited to design new, regional

buildings that are both sustainableand anticipate changes in climate.

STSD Conference 2002


Issues of particular regional concern

Some of the potential changes in climate needto be examined further in order to understandthe differential impacts across the region.

• Specific locations within the region arepotentially vulnerable to coastal andriverine flooding. (See Coastal andFlooding Impact Domains.)

• Specific locations within the region arevulnerable to extremes events of windsand storms.

• The geographical differences intemperatures across the region, leading toincreased demand for cooling of buildingsto achieve thermal comfort, especially inthe more southerly locations.

• Reduced heating demand due to warmerwinter temperatures. In the southern partof the region this will mean a reducedrequirement for conventional spaceheating.

• Increased solar radiation providingopportunity for solar gain to provide bothheating in winter and cooling in summer.Again this will apply to the whole regionbut with greater opportunity in the south.

• Opportunities for exploiting external andsemi-external environments.

The Way ForwardThe expected lifespan of new and existingbuildings means that the timescale for climatechange scenarios is of direct relevance to thedesign, construction, maintenance and use ofbuildings.

Action needs to be applied immediately asbuildings constructed now will be required tooperate in conditions at least of the 2020’sscenarios, and probably of the 2080’sscenarios.

Design options are available to minimiseclimate impacts on new buildings. Design canminimise subsidence in clay soils, dampnessfrom rain penetration, and weather damage tomaterials. These may incur additional capitalcosts at the outset, but are likely to be offset byconsideration of lifetime costs.

Calculations suggest that in most cases thereare unlikely to be cost-benefits in radicalimprovements to existing buildings. Regularmaintenance to a good standard is the generalguidance.

Good design can also help to reduce the needfor increased air conditioning through theprovision of good ventilation. Otherwise theincrease in air-conditioning is expected toabsorb the 12% - 19% energy-use savings thatcould be expected from the warmer winters.This will in turn add to global warming.

Changes to Building Regulations and otherstandards are required to address theseissues.

There is an urgent need to develop passivedesigns and low-energy technologies forcooling, as well as more efficient air-conditioning equipment. (e.g. BRE/DEFRAmarket transformation initiative on air-conditioning).

Planning can help to avoid problems fromflooding and coastal erosion.

In addition, the finance industry may take astronger view about future-proofing buildingdesigns as pressures build on insurancecompanies to increase premiums or withdrawtotally from insuring buildings in certainvulnerable locations.

Landowners, developers and sponsors of newbuildings, particularly local authorities, cannominate standards of performance for newbuild that recognise potential changes inclimate.

Sustainability

There is some evidence of regional enthusiasmfor, and expertise in, the idea of sustainablebuilding construction. (STSC Conference:Taunton June 2002). It is clear that adaptationof the built environment to climate change isunlikely to be pursued in its own right.However, there is considerable scope forlinking adaptation responses to the widersustainable construction agenda. (e.g. SouthWest Future Foundations, SWRDA)

Adaptation is still not broadlyunderstood in the construction

industry. Building owners are unawareof possible impacts, particularly to

structures built before stringentworkmanship controls were in place.

Buro Happold 2002

The integration of information onClimate Change into design tools thatsupport standards is a step that couldbe taken more quickly and easily than

the amendment of the standardsthemselves. (E.g. BREVe, a software

tool for calculating design windspeedsand loadings.)

Lowe 2001


It would be useful to develop more distinctregional approaches to design and constructionof buildings in the future. This is inconsistenthowever with the observed tendency tominimize or eliminate regional variation. Thetrend towards larger construction companies,encapsulated by ‘Re-thinking Construction’,tends to work against regionalisation ofconstruction. The development of systems andapproaches that allow and promote appropriateregionalisation despite these trends must be amatter of priority. (Lowe 2001).

As the built environment accounts for roughly50% of greenhouse gas emissions in the UK itis important to seek further reductions in theuse of energy generated from non-renewablesources. The continued implementation ofenergy saving measures and the use ofrenewable energy will both assist in this matter.

Knowledge levels

There is little evidence that the sector hasmade any use within the region of the latestscenarios published by UKCIP, although therenow some studies underway nationally.Climate scientists, natural scientists and naturalresource managers within the region have agrasp on the data and the issues. For othersthe phenomenon does not appear to justifyresearch. The built environment domain is onewhere the climate scenarios can at least beused for modelling, for example thermalperformance as part of a decision making anddesign process, as in the BRE tools fordetermining insulation, glazing etc.

Some professionals in the South Westacknowledge the potential impacts of climatechange on the built environment, but for mostpractitioners climate change means mitigation– reduction in energy usage and greenhousegas emissions, not adaptation. A regional firmof architects with a high reputation for thedesign of sustainable buildings admitted thatthey had no formal policy on adaptation toclimate change. Another firm of environmentalengineers with an international reputationreported a tacit rather than explicit approach toadaptation issues.

Adaptation is still not broadly understood in theconstruction industry. Building owners areunaware of possible impacts, particularly tostructures built before stringent workmanshipcontrols were in place. (Buro Happold 2002.)

The potential hazards of flooding areacknowledged, and the statutory and advisoryroles of the Environment Agency and LocalPlanning Authorities seem appropriate to dealwith these issues.

Building designers and consultants identifiedpotential litigation as major concerns. It wasunlikely that previously completed projectswould be revisited, but new buildings must bedesigned to industry standards. We wereadvised therefore, that changes in standardsthat reflected potential changes in climatewould be a highly effective mechanism forimproving performance.

Initiating change

The following recommendations for arose fromdiscussions within the sector:

• Change Building Regulations to reflectanticipated climate conditions, particularlywith regard to increased summertimetemperatures, grey water systems, andincreased exposure to driving rain and winddamage from extreme events.

• Change professional and trade Codes andStandards to reflect anticipated climateconditions through appropriate lobbying ofprofessional bodies, trade associations etc.

• Introduce future-based climate scenarios,rather than historic meteorological data asthe basis for technical decision-making.

• Educate the construction industry includingarchitects, surveyors, engineering andenvironmental consultants as well ascontractors. Initially this may concentrateupon regional interpretation of the UKCIP02scenarios, and then proceed to widerimplications for the industry.

• Develop new forms of building contractingand procurement that requires developersto take responsibility for their products overa longer period of time.

• Develop strategies for future-proofingexisting building stock, including thedevelopment of robust repair andrefurbishment standards.

• The focus should be on the shift inemphasis from heating to cooling,particularly in urban locations, and in thesouth of the region.

Wessex Water Operations Centrebuilding is interesting due to the

number of strategies that the client wasnot prepared to commit to at

construction stage, but allowed spacefor retro-fitting at a later stage. e.g.

photovoltaics, cooling system.

Wessex Water


• Encourage continuing dialogue betweendevelopers, designers, contractors,occupiers, financiers and insurers on allaspects of climate change, probablythrough the SWRDA, GOSW, professionalbodies and trade associations.

Potential barriers

The need to adapt to potential climate changeis not widely acknowledged in any part of theconstruction industry, whether this be clients,designers, or contractors.

It is suggested that there are two main reasonsfor this reluctance to engage with adaptationissues. These are to do with both the type ofdata available and the degree of uncertaintyattached to the data.

While uncertainty is bound to reduce the levelof practical response, straightforward ignoranceis still a principal barrier. This ignoranceprobably results from the way in which climatedata and scenarios are presented. It appearsthat, even in a sector that makes some use ofquantitative predictive techniques, a morepractical representation of climate is needed ifthe industry is to grasp the likely changes andtheir implications.

Despite this, some more sophisticated data isrequired within the industry if environmentalengineers are to quantify the opportunities forpassive collection and the challenges ofsustainable cooling strategies.

A further potential barrier to change is the trendtowards pre-fabrication, particularly of housing.This invites a national (or even international)approach to building design, rather than aregional, climate responsive approach.


Challenges and Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts in Built EnvironmentDomain



C

C

Overheating within existing and new buildings.

Building fabric exposed to thermal stress.

O Increased requirement for specialist expertise in technical aspects such ascooling, ventilation, passive solar design.

O Increased solar gain for passive water heating, photovoltaics etc.

O Prospect of new internal finishes (e.g. ceramic floor tiles in place of fittedcarpets).

O Increased opportunities for outdoor activities relating to the built environment.

O Generally improved construction site conditions.


C Drying of substrata, especially in clay areas such as Bristol, Dorset,Gloucestershire leading to increased subsidence & associated insuranceclaims.

C Water supply problems both during construction and during building’s use.


O Less requirement for space heating (fewer degree days).

Possible increase in demand for canopy type structures externally.


C Litigation risks for consultants and contractors, associated with both newdesigns and existing buildings.

C Some worsening of construction site conditions e.g. concrete, mortar etc.

C More robust designs required for rainwater disposal systems above and belowground.

O More water available, but will need capturing and storing, and requireincentives from water companies to reduce consumption from mains supply.


C

C

Restrictions on location of proposed developments.

Requirement for flood defences to protect existing buildings.


C

O

Lawns and other amenity planting likely to require more maintenance.

Less days lost through frost on construction sites.

Flooding Increased C Litigation risks for consultants and contractors, associated with both newdesigns and existing buildings.

C Higher specifications required for new drainage systems (especially urban)

C Improvements required to existing drainage systems (especially urban).

C Opportunity for introducing Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) innew developments.


C Walls and windows, especially cavity-filled walls vulnerable to driving rainpenetration, especially in exposed locations.

C Structures and roofs vulnerable to damage in exposed locations.

C Buildings and infrastructure under construction vulnerable to extreme events,especially in exposed locations.


HERITAGE DOMAIN

ScopeThe management, conservation and protection ofthe historical and natural heritage of the SouthWest Region, including the designed landscape,parks, gardens, buildings, environmental & humanarchaeology and the natural landscape.

See Also

Rivers and Flooding, Water Resources, Coastal,Natural Environment, Built Environment, Tourism

BackgroundThe South West region forms one of the UK’srichest areas of natural and human heritage,containing for example 46% of England’s Grade Ilisted buildings.

Percentage (%) of England’s classifiedheritage found in the south west

I II* II Total

Historic Parks andGardens

24 20 17 19

Listed Buildings 46 24

Scheduled AncientMonuments

32

ConservationAreas

18

Protected Wrecks 41

The Heritage as discussed here (c.f. NaturalEnvironment, specifically) is largely controlled,managed, and conserved though the aegis of theNational Trust, English Heritage and CountryArchaeological groups. National Parks, with theirdesignated governing bodies and Areas ofOutstanding National Beauty (AONBs) formimportant designations in the conservation andmanagement of the landscape. Individuallandowners (e.g. Duchy of Cornwall) and propertyowners also play an important part in this process.

Heritage in the region is particularly important inthe context of tourism, and forms an importantfacet in the marketing of the region both site-specifically and as a whole.

Key Issues• Deterioration of unearthed archaeology

driven by drying out of uplands withenhanced heather growth and greaterrooting densities

• Loss of archaeological remains anddegradation of their palaeo-

environmental context driven byaccelerated oxidation arising fromgreater variability of water table inlowland wetlands (e.g. Somerset levels,Exe valley) as a result of shifts in rainfalland evaporation patterns

• Deterioration of unearthed archaeologyarising from the potential ground-disturbance effects of agriculturalchanges (e.g. willow expansion, as bio-energy crop; exploitation of wetlands forcrops requiring higher moisture, whenfree-draining valley sides become drier);

• Exposure and damage of buriedarchaeological remains (track-ways etc)in the inter-tidal zone caused byincreased storminess and potential sea-level rise;

• Damage to protected wrecks as a resultof increased storminess;

• Increased costs associated withmaintenance of coastal structures (e.g.National Trust owned harbours) arsingfrom accelerated damage brought aboutby increasing storminess and sea-levelrise.

• Increased management tensions andconflicts between conservation agenciesand local communities brought about byimplementation of ‘managed retreat’ or‘managed re-alignment’ of coastal andriparian margins.

• Increased visitor pressures andincreased revenue for historic buildingsbrought about by expansion of touristseason and increase in the number ofshort-break holidays predicted within awarmer climate;

• Potential increased insurance costs forlisted buildings and National Trustproperties arising from climatic damage

• Maintenance of historical plantingschemes in gardens created in colderclimate – e.g. increased grass cutting willraise maintenance costs.

• Potential increase in storm damage,light-degradation, rain damage, fungaland beetle damage to the exterior andinterior of historic buildings;

• Changes to natural landscape contextsfor heritage sites, National trust land,AONBs etc. as a result of climate drivenvegetational shifts.

Issues associated with heritage and climatechange can be broadly split into those pertainingto the ‘natural’ and those relating to the ‘designed’landscape. In the context of designed landscape,a further sub-division can be made intoarchaeology (buried and above ground), historic


buildings and structures, and designedlandscapes (parks, gardens etc). Each of these‘territories’ is examined discretely.

Effects upon historical environment

Key issues concern the management of coastlineand decisions on protection, managed re-alignment or retreat. Regional examples includePorlock Shingle Ridge (half National Trustowned)– breached in 1996 – where decisionswere made to allow natural change. Freshwatermarsh inland has now become brackish despitesome pressure to re establish the shingle ridge.

There is often local pressure to preservelandscape, as this is what local people are familiarwith. In other areas (e.g. Birling Gap E Sussex)the National Trust has allowed cottages to ‘fallinto sea’ rather than attempting to protect them.

Designed landscapes

Significant park and garden acreage occurs in theSouth West. A large number of these landscapeshave been created or laid out in the seventeenthand eighteenth centuries – a time period whenEurope was at the height of the so called Little IceAge. The potential impacts of climate change onthese designed landscapes are various.

The historical shape and/or planting schemes thatwere designed for tolerance to colder climate maybecome unviable in the future. One of the mostnotable examples of a garden potentially at threatis the Late Seventeenth Century garden atWestbury Court, Gloucestershire on the banks ofthe Lower River Severn. Here repeated floodingover the last decade has created managementproblems particularly associated with theincreased incidence of the water-borne pathogenPhytophera (related to potato blight) that hasbegun to attack the important and extensive YewHedge plant-scape. Westbury Court Garden is asite whose long-term viability has been directlyquestioned, with the threat being attributedparticularly to climate change.

Other impacts have been on historical fruits suchas the medlar. This was a popular Elizabethanfruit that was eaten after exposure to the firstfrosts in autumn. The lack of autumnal frosts inrecent years has meant that these fruits are onlyedible after been deep frozen for six hours afterpicking. Both increased flooding and frostreduction are predicted in the UKCIP02 scenarios.

Climate change is also thought, already, to haveinfluenced the management of some garden sitesowned by the National Trust: Properties onceclosed for the entire winter are now closed foronly 6 weeks. The South West, in particular, haswitnessed such changes. These can be partiallyattributed to changing character in tourism-demand (e.g. the move to short-break holidays,and off-season breaks).

Nevertheless, the National Trust regards climatechange as being one of the significant drivers inthe longer opening season of garden properties.Many of the region’s National Trust Gardens havea predominantly spring focus and warmer, driersprings have brought forward the first flowering(e.g. of camellias, flowering bulbs andrhododendron). Notable gardens with extendedopening include the Cornish Trelissick andGlendergan gardens, both of which have startedflowering earlier, potentially as a result of climatechange.

Whilst this has greater cost implications formanagement it also increases income and isconsidered valuable for local employment byreducing its seasonality. The increasing short-break, off-peak trend in the region has alsobenefited the National Trust which is aconsiderable owner of holiday cottages. Theoccupancy of these has increased, again reducingthe seasonality.

Water resources in heritage gardens may alsobecome an issue, either through increaseddemands on irrigation to maintain historicplanting, or through low-flows (or flood flows)diminishing or damaging water supply associatedwith formal water-gardens and pond systems.Water harvesting assessments may be needed tooptimise such water gardens, e.g. as thePainswick Rococo gardens in Gloucestershire(McEwen and Hunt, 2002).

Additional threats associated with water featuresrelate to ponds and lakes whose catchments aresusceptible to overland flow and sedimentserosion. Shifting agricultural practice and climatechange may combine to accelerate sedimentinfilling of such features, leading to a dredgingrequirement. Dredging in such situations can leadto the loss of valuable palaeo-environmental dataand should only be undertaken after sedimentshave been recovered for analysis. Thesesediments may hold valuable evidence that canbe used to reconstruct environmental change(e.g. flooding histories) in specific gardencatchments, which in turn can be used toinvestigate and monitor the impacts of climatechange itself (valuable evidence was lost, forexample when 300 years of sedimentaccumulation were dredged from the ponds atWestbury Court in the early 1970s, removingevidence of the flooding history of the RiverSevern).

Historic buildings, as with significant proportionsof the building stock, are at risk from specificaspects of climate change related phenomena.Maintenance of historic buildings can range fromthe relatively recent structures (such as CastleDrogo, built between 1910 and 1930) through todecaying mining structures such as the Cornishtin mines and ruined buildings such as the 13th

Centrury Hailes Abbey in Gloucestershire andTintagel Castle in Cornwall.


Ruined sites pose particular problems as they arenot readily protected from the weather. Shelterbuildings are generally not deemed as allowableas they would have too great an impact on thesettings of the protected structures (John Fidler,pers comm. 2002). In extant as well as with ruinedbuildings, the strong conservationist approachrequired ensures that climate change will remaina difficult issue. Replacement materials arerequired to be in sympathy with original materials,and internal changes in a building’s air-movements can potentially lead to the ingress offungal or faunal agents of decay. The chief agentsof degradation are moisture ingress associatedwith timber decay, and the dissolution ofcalcareous materials and transport of salts inporous building stones (John Fidler, pers comm.2002). Increasing temperatures are also known toincrease the impacts of acid rainfall and otherpollutants on building materials and artistic /sculptural works in building stones and stainedglass. Storminess and increased winter rainfallpredicted by the UKCIP2002 scenarios all posethreats to the maintenance of the historicalbuildings in the south west.

Additional temperature-related effects relate tobiological decay. Whilst the immediate termitethreat to British buildings has arisen through theaccidental introduction of the subterranean termiteReticulitermes lucifugus, the northward movementof R. santonensis is occurring unaided and wouldadapt to warmer conditions in southern Britainquite readily. The northern penetration of the oak-beam-eating deathwatch beetle (Xestofobiumrufovillosum) into Scotland may occur directly as aresult of warmer conditions. However, in the southwest the warmer temperatures may facilitatedestruction of they egg-laying female beetles –heat triggers flight making the females moresusceptible to integrated pest management basedon light traps (John Fidler, pers comm. 2002).

The surface or exposed archaeologicallandscape

Increased storminess may lead to an acceleratedrate of erosion. Other environmental factorsinclude the marked increase in flood alleviationwork undertaken by the Environment Agency dueto increased risk of flooding. Some of these worksare particularly damaging to the HE.

There are also increased problems to historicbridges caused by higher river levels and fasterriver flow. This is causing scouring of materialaround abutments and the loss of mortar.

The principal areas of extensive buriedarchaeology (i.e. that archaeology which is yet tobe ‘un-earthed’ or examined for its palaeo-environmental and cultural / pre-historic evidence)lie in the extensive wetlands of the region. Theseinclude the upland peatlands on Dartmoor,Exmoor & Bodmin Moor, the lowland peatlands inthe Somerset Levels & elsewhere, alluviatedlowlands in Somerset, Avon & Devon, and coastalmarshes in Devon, Gloucestershire & Somerset.

Two threats are paramount in these sites: (i) thepotential for changing water tables in theterrestrial peatlands leading to accelerateddecomposition of organic remains (wood, leather,and fabric artefacts and structures; human andanimal remains); and (ii) the erosion of coastaland near coastal deposits as a result of increasingsea-levels and storm-driven tidal surges.

The most effective preservation of archaeologicaland palaeo-environmental remains occurs whenhost (burying) sediments are continuouslysaturated below the local water table. Cyclicaldrying and wetting that is predicted to occurfollowing the enhanced seasonality highlighted inthe UKCIP2002 models is extremely likely toaffect the preservation of buried evidence. Thegreater the oscillation of the water table, thegreater will be the zone of oxygenation andleaching in the peats and soils. Thus wetterwinters and drier summers re-enforce theproblem. In drier (un-saturated) depositsarchaeological preservation is generally poorerand more research is needed to confirmanecdotal evidence that environmentalstratigraphy may be disrupted as a consequenceof increased seasonal waterlogging.

The buried and surficial archaeology of uplandpeatlands is also vulnerable to root-disturbance,particularly by the invasive penetration of woodyroots of heather species. Evidence of damage toarchaeology is not uncommon in Dartmoor andExmoor (Conservation Bulletin, 2002; Robert Vande Noort, pers. comm. 2002), particularly as aresult of the spread of bracken, Bracken rhizomesfavour well-drained ground often associated withburied upland archaeology and are able to exertboth physical and chemical damage to thecolonised area (Conservation Bulletin, 2002).Drying of upland peatlands are a result of thegeneral shift to reduced annual precipitation(UKCIP2002 scenarios) is thought to favourheater and bracken growth therefore placing thearchaeology under threat.

The Way ForwardMany of the national organisations, especiallyEnglish Heritage and The National Trust havebegun to consider climate change as a majorissue and there is an increasing occurrence ofclimate change related policy statements arisingfrom these organisations that testify to this. Staffin both organisations are involved in policy andresearch activities at national and internationallevels. Much of the research into the physicalbehaviour of building materials and historicalstructures has been undertaken by, or been donein association with, these organisations. As theSouth West region contains a significantproportion of the Nation’s ‘heritage’ as defined inthis Domain, this national process will haveparticular benefit to the South West.

The fabric of our heritage is prone to manypressures, of which climate change is but one,whilst climate change may indeed pose some


threat, for example, to Stonehenge it is the visitorpressures and transport facilities in the area thathave been criticised as impacting most severelyon the appreciation of heritage, both landscapeand builtscape

To an extent it can be argued that the fabric of thebuildings has the potential to withstand theassaults of predicted climate change (albeit withpotential impact on ‘purist’ conservationprinciples) more so than the planted and ‘wild’landscapes, woodlands, parks and gardens. Inboth cases however, it is clear that furtherinvestigations are required to evaluate themagnitude of challenges and their potentialsolutions. The principle organisations involvedare, as highlighted above, already active in thisprocess.

4 RecommendationsThe public attitude to conservation of ‘heritage’has the potential to be improved. This can bedone hand in hand with the enhancement of thepublic understanding of science schemes,possibly through association with schemes suchas COPUS (Commission on the PublicUnderstanding of Science). Particular areaswhere public understanding has the potential tobe improved relate to an appreciation of the‘innevitability’ of change and the consequences ofattempting to prevent it. The notion of ‘managedretreat’ in riparian and coastal areas of heritageinterest is particularly appropriate to thisapproach.

There is some sense, that despite nationalinitiatives in many organisations, there is an over-reliance on ‘casual’ consideration of climatechange at a site-specific level. This is not tosugest that there are sites in which ‘bad’ or‘indifferent’ practise is occurring. Rather it is torecommend that the national bodies may givestronger steers to regional- and site-based staff toensure that climate change issues become a‘standard’ component of site management andregional planning.


Challenges and Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts on Heritage Domain



C

C

Increased potential for termite infestation

Increased risk of reduced water supply to historic gardens and landscapes

C Increased risk of upland desiccation and consequent deterioration of buriedarchaeology

C Expansion of agriculture into the potentially drier areas that are now wetland,with damage to unearthed archaeology

C Potential for increased light – driven and temperature driven damage if historicfabrics and building’s contents

C/O

Change in visitor patterns to ‘special interest’ (e.g. Spring flowering) gardens

C/O

Expansion of the visitor season due to warmer conditions and ‘extension’ of thesummer

O Increased visitor numbers and improved income streams to specific sites


C Potential for greater survival of pests that have potential to damage structuresand plants

C Potential for change to natural planting schemes and management practices

C Expansion of agriculture into the potentially drier areas that are now wetland,with damage to unearthed archaeology

C Potential for increased light–driven and temperature-driven damage to historicfabrics and building contents

C/O

Change in visitor patterns to ‘special interest’ (e.g. Spring flowering) gardens

C/O

Expansion of the visitor season due to warmer conditions and ‘extension’ of thesummer

O Increased visitor numbers and improved income streams to specific sites


C

C

Increased pressure on lowland (archeologically rich) wetlands for agriculture

Potential for certain historic garden planting strategies becoming unsustainable

C Increased risk of desiccation of archeologically rich peatlands


C

C

Increased moisture penetration into historic buildings

Potential impacts on historic planting schemes


HOUSING DOMAIN

ScopeThe domestic environment in terms of lifestyle(indoors and outdoors), building maintenanceand refurbishment, and the location, design,and construction of new dwellings. Technicalaspects of housing construction are addressedin the section on the Built Environment Domain.

See also

Built Environment, Utilities, Heritage, WaterResources, Environmental Technologies.

BackgroundThere were nearly 2 million dwellings in theregion at the 1991 census. There is somevariation of housing tenure when comparedwith averages for England. Owner Occupationis as high as 75% by comparison with 70% forthe whole of England. Only 7% of publichousing stock now remains with localauthorities (English equivalent is 13%). Muchhas been transferred over recent years (the1991 figure was 14%) to Registered SocialLandlords (RSLs) who now own and manage7% of stock within the region (2% in 1991).The private rented sector is relatively steady at11% of the total stock, consolidated by recent‘buy to rent’ investments and increasingemployment mobility.

There is a wide variety of vernacular buildingtraditions ranging from limestone in the north ofthe region, cob and thatch in the southeast,brickwork and clay in Devon and rough workedstone in Cornwall. Typical urban developmentsof 19th Century include (mainly brick) housing insettlements such as Swindon, Bristol,Cheltenham, Gloucester, as well as the coastalsettlements of Poole, Bournemouth, Weymouthand Plymouth where property is more typicallyrendered.

Dwelling types are shown in the table below:

Dwelling Type Percentage ofregion total (%)

Detached 30

Semi-Detached 27

Terraced 27

Purpose Built Flat 11

Converted Flat 5

Detached properties range from 43% of thelocal total in Dorset to 17% in the Bristol area.Flats in converted properties range from 8% inthe Bristol area to 2% in Wiltshire.

Key IssuesThe consideration of adaptation issues acrossthe built environment must include the wideragendas facing the housing sector, some ofwhich are included in the list of issues given:

• Projections for household numbers are2.32 million in 2011 increasing to 2.52million in 2021.

• The availability of land for housingdevelopment is a key issue for parts of theregion. New legislation, funding and newplanning regulation will all influence futuredevelopments.

• The SWRDA is committed to providing 50%of new housing by 2010 on previouslydeveloped land and through the conversionof existing buildings.

• The demand for new housing continues tokeep pace with general economic growthand increased household formation.

• Social housing will be a major focusparticularly in the most deprived localauthority areas and as part of acomprehensive regeneration strategy.

• Changes in lifestyle are anticipated as aresult of climate change though it is not yetclear what form this might take.

• Pre-fabricated dwellings are beingproposed as a way of speeding productionand increasing quality.

• Different strategies are required to deal witha) the design of new housing and b) themanagement and maintenance of theexisting housing stock.

• The impacts of some aspects of climatechange (e.g. technical issues) will becommon to all types of tenure. However,the responses will be managed verydifferently, particularly between owner-occupied properties and managedproperties in both public and privatesectors.

The Housing Corporation relies on theBuilding Regulations to boost the

standard of new dwellings and tends toconcentrate more on creating sustainable

communities through good design andhigh interior comfort plus community

facilities (e.g. open space).

Housing Corporation


• There will be an increasing emphasis onthe need for the cooling rather than theheating of residential buildings in thesouthern part of the region.

• The location of new housing developmentsmust take account of increased potentialfor coastal, riverine and urban flooding.

• Those parts of the region where housing isfounded on clay (including parts ofGloucestershire, Wiltshire, areas aroundBristol and Bath, parts of Dorset andSouth Devon) are vulnerable tosubsidence and ground movement fromthe drying out and shrinkage of clays indrought periods.

• External space in the form of balconies,parks and gardens will be at a premium,especially in high-density schemes inurban areas.

• Practical, affordable technologies arerequired for the passive cooling of allhousing in order to avoid further releasesof greenhouse gases in energy-consumingcooling and ventilation equipment.

• The reduction in demand for heating mayreduce heating costs and therefore currentaspects of fuel poverty, but the need forcooling in summer may increase costs andcreate a new type of fuel poverty.

• Households are likely to increase their useof water for drinking and garden irrigation,pools etc. So, there will be a need toreduce consumption of mains potablewater especially in summer, probablythrough the increasing use of water buttsand grey water systems.

• Housing may be exposed to higherintensities of driving rain, particularly inexposed areas of Cornwall, North and

South Devon and Dorset. Certain types ofconstruction (e.g. cavity filled walls) areparticularly vulnerable.

• There are potential lifestyle changes,particularly to do with the greater use ofthe external environment associated withall housing types.

• The housing sector is generally ill-informedabout, and ill-prepared for, climate changeimpacts. Wide ranging education andtraining is required across the sector, forowner-occupiers, managers anddevelopers of housing stock.

• The short-term nature of most housinginvestment, and the NHBC cover limitedto a 10-year period, discourages long-term considerations in housinginvestment.

The Way ForwardThere is little published material on the impactof climate change on housing except thatconcerning the technical issues of the buildingfabric. Clearly aspects such as flooding,exposure to winds, driving rain, heat stress etc.are important and are dealt with both in thissection of the report, and in the section on theBuilt Environment.

Much greater understanding is required of the‘softer’ aspects of housing, particularly lifestylechanges associated with changes in theweather.

Planning and design options are available tominimise climate impacts. These include:

• Ensuring that new developments avoidlocations that are potentially vulnerable tocoastal, riverine and urban flooding.

• Improving the technical specification ofnew housing to deal with extreme eventsof winds, storms and driving rain.

• Designing to improve cooling andventilation in summer conditions and toreduce the need for increased airconditioning. The geographical differencesacross the region, will lead to increaseddemand for cooling in the more southerlylocations (Dorset, Devon and Cornwall),and also in the urban centres (such asSwindon, Bristol, Plymouth) where theeffect of urban heat-islands can uplifttemperatures by a further 3oC.

There will be increasing pressure onRegistered Social Landlords to mergeinto larger units to spread the costs of

all sorts of climate change impacts.

Those Registered Social Landlords(RSLs) with properties at sea level, near

the coast, may potentially lose it.Insurance will cover the cost; if not we

will seek mergers between RSLs to‘spread’ the load financially or have towrite off stock and the grants given to

produce it.

Housing Corporation

Heating/Cooling – enjoy 12% to 19%reduction in heating energy

use………..use some of the gain toimprove comfort and reduce damp.

Graves and Phillipson, 2000


• Exploiting external and semi-externalenvironments to the full. This will beparticularly important in urban environmentsgenerally and particularly in high-densityhousing where private open space is oftenat a premium.

• Creating adaptable dwellings that canrespond more sensitively to changingclimate conditions, requiring less costlyalterations/additions for example.

Such initiatives may well incur additional capitalcosts but these are likely to be offset byconsideration of lifetime costs. Planning canhelp to avoid problems from flooding andcoastal erosion. Design can minimisesubsidence in clay soils, dampness from rainpenetration, and weather damage to materials.

Those responsible for RSLs have indicated thatincreased funds will be required from centralgovernment to improve the standards of bothexisting and new stock. A further response toresource problems will be to combine smallerRSLs into larger administrative units able toabsorb the costs of particular schemes andachieve economies of scale.

The response of the insurance industry will becritical in both private and public sectors.There is some indication that insurers couldwithdraw from certain locations at high risk, aswell as increasing premiums in vulnerablelocations. The concept of ‘future-proofing’building designs may be applied as a way ofsetting premiums.

Changes to Building Regulations and otherstandards may be an appropriate way ofaddressing some of these issues.

Knowledge levels

Some housing professionals in the South Westacknowledge the potential impacts of climatechange on the built environment, but for mosthousing practitioners climate change is not onthe agenda. Within this study it was difficult toelicit any response from many regional housingorganisations, in both the public and privatesectors. Many organisations could not identifyappropriate personnel to deal with the topic.

Within the Housing Corporation the SeniorTechnical Officer for the region indicated thatthe HC had no explicit policies that addressedclimate change issues (either adaptation ormitigation). The same was true for theRegional Operations Director of a majorHousing Association who also reported beingunaware of the concept of ‘adaptation’ beforereceiving the questionnaire.

No specific enquiries were made of owner-occupiers within this study, but other worksuggests that many interested householdersare aware of some of the potential impacts butunclear on how best to respond.

Recommendations

The following are recommendations for areaswithin which change can be initiated.

• Introduce future rather than historicmeteorological data as the basis fortechnical decisions when revising codesand regulations relating to housing designand construction.

• Design new buildings using the followingindicative strategies (BRE, 2000):

• Design roofs in anticipation of 5-10%increase in wind loads.

• Increase foundation depths by around0.5m in susceptible clay soils.

• Design for driving rain assuming higherlevels of climatic exposure.

• Avoid floodplains. Raise floor levels,and avoid underfloor wiring invulnerable locations.

• Plan for good ventilation.

• Anticipate reduced heating load inwinter, and design for passive coolingin summer.

• Educate the housing sector includinghousing developers, RSLs, local authorities,Housing Corporation, and designers.Initially this may concentrate upon regionalinterpretation of the UKCIP02 scenarios,and then proceed to implications for thesector.

• Educate owner-occupiers. Initially this mayconcentrate upon regional interpretation of

“Is this a wind-up? I don’t do science.”

Local Authority Housing Officer on receiptof Climate Change Impacts questionnaire.

Ventilation – raise temperature to dispeldamp. Provide good natural ventilationwhere air pollution and security allow,especially in the southern part of the

country. Consider mechanicalventilation only as a last resort.

Graves and Phillipson, 2000


the UKCIP02 scenarios, and then proceedto adaptation responses.

• Develop new forms of housingdevelopment, procurement and financingwhich extends the investment period.

• Develop strategies for future-proofingexisting building stock including thedevelopment of robust repair andrefurbishment standards. The focus shouldbe on the shift in emphasis from heating tocooling, particularly in urban locations, andin the south of the region.

• Undertake further research into lifestylechanges associated with climate change,and the implications for the sociallyexcluded.

• There is a recognised need to understandmore subtle characteristics of climatechange e.g. sunshine hours, relativehumidity, cloud cover, andpattern/magnitude of extreme events.

• It would be beneficial to modify standardsand design criteria within existing industrypractice guidelines, and to shift sector useof meteorological data from historical tofuture based data.

Potential barriers

One respondent identified a potential conflictbetween a sustainable construction and thecreation of maintenance-free building fabric,presumably because a material which did notdegenerate under any environmentalconditions likely to be experienced in achanging climate would not be themselvesorganic in origin or remotely biodegradable.

The barriers to change with regard to existingproperties vary according to the type of tenure.

Most properties in the South West are owner-occupied. It will be very difficult to achieve

appropriate adaptation responses in this sector,as responses will be dependent on individualactions by individual households. Publicawareness campaigns, particularly with regardto the avoidance of further energyconsumption, will be important here.

Properties managed by local authorities,Registered Social landlords (RSLs) and largeprivate landlords will benefit from strategicmanagement and maintenance strategies.Adaptation responses will nonetheless not beforthcoming without appropriate funding fromcentral government.

With regard to new-build there are five mainbarriers to change:

• Building Regulations and Codes do notsufficiently take account of climate changepredictions in setting new performancestandards.

• Professional and lay people have difficultyin responding to the degree of uncertaintyassociated with future climate scenarios.

• House buyers are reluctant to invest inanything other than the most conventionalhouse designs.

• The move to centralised pre-fabrication ofresidential buildings may prevent theproduction of houses designed for localclimate conditions.

• The general unavailability of building landforces housing development to what areperceived as difficult sites. In turn thismakes development more complex,requiring more consultation which slows theprocess, and makes the resultant housingmore expensive. All this makes it less likelythat adaptation responses are given seriousconsideration.


Challenges and Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts in Housing Domain

Climate Impacts Challenges and Opportunities


C Overheating of the interior environment of existing and new housing stock.

C Increase in certain types of household pests such as insects etc.

C Increased problems of keeping food free from bacterial infection.

C Heating costs down as less requirement for space heating.

O More outdoor socialising, barbecues etc.

O New types of food and possible changes in diet.

O New internal finishes (e.g. ceramic floor tiles).

O Increased opportunities for outdoor activities.

O Improved viability of solar water heating.


C Increased use of and demand for water: e.g. for irrigation of gardens,swimming pools, drinks etc.

C Less availability of potable water.

C Increased potential for subsidence & insurance claims due to drying out ofsubstrata, esp. clays in areas such as Bristol, Dorset and Gloucestershire

O Greater and more consistent use of outdoor space.

Increased Winter C None identified.

Temperature O Heating costs reduced as less requirement for space heating.


C Increased grant requirement for RSLs to deal with upgrading andmaintenance.

C Improvements in rainwater disposal systems above & below ground will beneeded.

C More foreign holidays to escape British winter.

O More water available but needs capturing and storing.


C Restrictions on location of proposed developments.

C Requirement for flood defences to protect existing buildings.

C/O

Relocation of housing stock associated with managed retreat.

Longer GrowingSeasons and

C Lawns & other amenity planting require more maintenance through increasedgrowth and use.

Reduced Frosts O Less maintenance and associated costs arising from frost damage, thaws,etc.

Flooding Increased C Need to improve flood defences.

C Need to relocate vulnerable housing stock.

C Ensure no new housing development in vulnerable locations.

C Consider possibility of changed use for ground floors to less vulnerableactivities (e.g. no electrical equipment).

O Opportunity for introducing SUDS in new developments.


C Walls and windows, especially cavity-filled walls vulnerable to driving rainpenetration, especially in exposed locations.

C Structures & roofs vulnerable to damage in exposed locations.


PUBLIC HEALTH DOMAIN

ScopeIssues of health and well-being, includingdiseases, pests, vulnerable groups and positiveopportunities.

See Also

Water Resources; Tourism and Leisure,Housing.

BackgroundThe population of the South West is one of thelowest in the UK, although this level isexpected to increase by nearly 11% from 1996values by 2016. Households are likely toincrease by almost 25% over the same period.

A large proportion of this population is elderlydue to the attractions of retiring to the region,and large numbers of both the retired andworking age community live in rural areas.Allowing for this age structure, the South Westcurrently has the lowest mortality rate in theUK.

The region is greatly influenced by tourism –some parts of the region have a temporarysummer population more than twice that of therest of the year – which has its own influenceon public health concerns.

Key Issues• Potential for increase in radiation levels

and skin cancer.

• Maintenance of water quality and supply,essential for health and well-being, may becompromised if water companies etc. “failto get it right”. Supply will be especiallystretched if tourism does increase as aresult of climate change.

• Psychological impact of flood events hasbeen reported to be as damaging as thephysical effects of flooding, particularlywhere domestic properties are concerned.

• Atmospheric conditions could favour anincrease in urban pollution, while summerchanges could alter the pattern anddistribution of pollen and spores.

• Mould growth, already a common concernin houses in the far south west of theregion, is likely to become morewidespread. Moulds are well recognisedtriggers for allergy sufferers andasthmatics.

• Very little regional research has been donein the area of climate change impacts onpublic health.

Water quality and reliability of supply islikely to be a significant factor where

Public Health is concerned.

Public health officer, Exeter

Incidences of skin cancer haveincreased in the last ten years even with

increasing awareness.Climate change is likely to continue thistrend, particularly in the South West of

the country.Medical professional, Bath

The South West is particularlyvulnerable to health impacts of climate

change due to its high proportion ofelderly people and pressure on local

services dependent on tourism.This makes the region open to

perceptions of risk that might followfrom climate-related health scares.

Public health officer, Exeter


Issues of particular regional relevance

Climate change may affect the demography ofthe region via its influence on migration. Theregion is a popular choice for retirement and sohas a large elderly population. Changestowards what is perceived to be better climatecould increase the attractiveness of the regionto migrants. However, since similar changes inclimate are also anticipated in some of themajor source areas of migrants (e.g. south eastEngland) changes in relative attractivenessmay be limited. It is also possible thatincreases in extreme weather associated withclimate change could reduce the attractivenessof the region to potential migrants.

The water companies must be prepared forclimate change to ensure that water qualitydoes not decrease due to changes in climate,with potential consequent health impacts.There are many private water supplies in theregion that also need to address climatechange, but these may be difficult to regulate.

Strategies to reduce the potential healthimpacts should be addressed now, e.g. buildingdesign for optimal space cooling, and theplanting of trees within urban areas to reducethe “urban heat-island” effects. It would befalse economy to delay such activities until thehealth effects are being experienced on aregular basis.

The South West is likely to be the first regionaffected by increases in radiation, leading to apotential for skin cancer increase. This isenhanced by the region’s having a generallygood air quality, which allows greater radiationpenetration. The likelihood of more summervisitors to the region also means that visitors tothe region will transport this increase back totheir home regions.

Notable risks

While it is easily understood that extremeweather events can lead to injuries and evendeaths, it is also considered that they may leadto considerable long-term psychological impact.Such events and their aftermath couldadditionally burden the healthcare system.Following floods in Bristol in 1968 for example,3,000 homes were flooded and there was onefatality, but there was also an increase of 53%in visits to the doctor during the year followingthe event.

The incidence of food poisoning in the UnitedKingdom has been rising in recent years for avariety of non-climatically related reasons.Superimposed on this general increase there isalso a marked annual seasonal pattern ofhigher risk associated with periods of hotsummer weather (e.g. salmonella peaks in thesummer each year). Warmer summers are

therefore likely to increase the incidence offood borne disease, all other things beingequal.

Lyme disease is the only important vector-borne disease in the UK and is alreadyprevalent in the South West region. It is notclear what effects, if any, climate change mighthave on the ticks and parasites that cause thedisease. However, it does seem likely that awarmer climate would encourage changes inhuman behaviour (more outdoor leisureactivities in tick-infested areas, lighter-weightclothing) that could increase risk.

Changes in rainfall patterns under climatechange may affect surface water quality andthe risk of microbiological contamination ofpublic water supplies. Surface water is morelikely to be contaminated than ground water.

The water-borne disease cryptosporidiosis hasbeen associated with flooding following periodsof dry weather. The South West already has ahigh incidence of cryptosporidiosis, which couldbe exacerbated by the predicted change todrier summers followed by milder, wetterwinters.

An increased frequency of flooding associatedwith climate change could in theory alsoincrease the contamination of estuarine andcoastal waters with heavy metals. Thesemetals are currently locked away in sediments,or even old mining spoil-heaps, but could be re-exposed by heavy rain or flood events.Warmer summers with higher near-shore watertemperatures are likely to encourage more seabathing and similar activities, which couldincrease population exposure to microbiologicaland other contaminants, including heavymetals.

The lack of large river systems in several areasof the region will increase pressure on existingwater supply systems due to both high and lowrainfall, with a corresponding risk of waterquality deterioration. It should be notedhowever that water quality standards in thesouth west are high, and if regulationincreases, increasing temperature should notcause any quality problems.

The region experiences high ozone episodesassociated with stable anticyclonic conditionswith high temperatures and strong sunlight, andthese may be increased under climate change,although this is currently highly uncertain.Population exposure to ground level ozone andthe associated respiratory health effects maytherefore increase.

Heatwaves are associated with short-termincreases in mortality and morbidity, primarily inthe elderly, and those with chronic lung or heartdisease. Climate change will increase thefrequency of heatwaves in the region, althoughacclimatization will reduce some of the impacts


of increases in temperature. The direct effectsof temperature on mortality occur attemperatures that are not necessarily extreme;for example, heat related mortality can beobserved above 17oC in London.

Skin cancer and other health impacts due toexposure to ultraviolet radiation are likely to beof increasing concern in the region. Warmer,sunnier summer weather is likely to encouragepatterns of behaviour (e.g. more outdoorleisure and lighter clothing) that increaseexposure to the sun.

Notable opportunities

The costs of adapting to climate change, i.e.reducing or preventing health impacts will becost-effective because they are likely to havenear-term health benefits as well, for example,improving disease monitoring and public healthinfrastructure.

Milder winters should reduce winter mortalityrates.

Warmer summers should encourage the eatingof healthier (salad type) foodstuffs and alsoincrease participation in outdoor (physical)activities.

Health aspects of climate change may besufficiently interesting to the general public thatthey are hooked into considering impactswhere they might otherwise not have been.Every person, regardless of age or occupation,can understand the relevance of healthmatters, where they might perhaps feel thatcertain business or environmental impacts are“nothing to do with them”.

The Way ForwardThe drive towards more sustainable energy +

provision and use, including energy efficiencymeasures, will in many cases have a beneficialeffect on public health.

The general aim of increasing awareness aboutsustainability issues may also encouragepeople’s thoughts towards public health issuesas they affect them in their personal lives.

Many of the believed anthropogenic causes ofclimate change are also related to the maincauses of poor health in developed countries.A healthier and more sustainable lifestyle – forexample less driving of fuel-powered cars andcorrespondingly more use of bicycles or

walking will be encouraged by better weather,contribute to better health and reduce negativeimpacts on the environment.

Potential barriers

The difficulties to be overcome in the region arelikely to be inertia due to a lack of funds and atendency to believe that the South West, aspart of an affluent Western society, is immuneto situations and diseases more commonlyassociated with poorer developing parts of theworld.

Knowledge and awareness

Public health workers are very well tuned todevelopments in their own field, but are lesslikely to attribute them to external influences.Those in positions to influence wide scalechanges on a regional level may need furtherinformation before they are willing to act whenthe region is seen to have a generally goodrecord for public health.

The Department of Health commissioned a UKnational health impact assessment of climatechange, which was produced in 2002, but asyet there has been no regional work carried outin the Health Sector. An integrated approach tomonitoring impacts (health outcomes) andexposures (e.g. air pollution, water quality) isrequired to accurately gauge the true impact ofclimate change on health issues and this hasnot yet been achieved.

More research is also needed on heat relateddeaths and illness, and the role of temperaturein food and water-borne disease transmission.Such research will require inter-sectoralcollaboration; for example, between the water,health, academic sectors. Uncertainties existon such matters as:

• How fast will people acclimatise to thewarmer climate?

• How great is the risk of introduction of“new” diseases? (Currently not consideredto be very great).

• How will adaptation measures in othersectors affect health, for example,increased use of insecticides in agricultureor home gardening? (Considered to havelittle regional relevance at this time).

Example of Good PracticeIsles of Scilly Health Centre haveinstalled a ground sourced heat

exchange unit for provision of bothheating and cooling without an

increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

Water quality and reliability of supply islikely to be a significant factor where

Public Health is concerned.

Source unknown


Recommendations

Many health risks relating to climate changewill be avoidable if appropriate changes inbehaviour are encouraged. The biggestchallenge and easiest way to protect andimprove the health of those living in the regionis to increase knowledge and understanding ofwhat climate change will mean in terms ofhealth impacts.

This process needs to start with the healthsector itself, which requires increased accessto and training in, the information available.Specific examples include recognition ofweather-dependant diseases, such as thosecaused by Giardia cysts and Cryptosporidiumoocysts, which may increase in streamsfollowing heavy rain events.

In addition to changes in diseases contractedlocally, awareness of tropical diseases whichcould change distribution globally will berequired by health workers in the region whotreat people on their return from travel abroad.

Once local health scientists are betterinformed, they will be in a position to inform thegeneral public – providing information andrecommendations regarding specific risks forlocal environments (e.g. diseases in marshlandareas) or “at risk” groups (e.g. heat stroke inthe elderly).

They will need to establish and then advise onpreventative measures available and responsesystems in place locally. There will be scopefor involvement with LA21 initiatives across theregion in many of these areas.


Challenges and Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts in Public Health Domain

Climate Impact Challenges and Opportunities


C Risk of increased exposure to radiation; increased incidence of skincancer.

C Increased risk of heat exhaustion and dehydration.

C Risk of heat stress in participants of summer sports.

C Risk of heat stroke especially among the elderly and children.

C Increased risk of food poisoning, including shellfish poisoning.

C/O

Need for more environmental health officers and laboratories to monitorabattoirs, food supplies etc. for potential food risks.

O Tendency towards eating healthier foods in warmer weather.

Reduced Summer C Risk of deterioration of water quality and supply.

Rainfall O More opportunities for outdoor activities, with associated health benefits.


C Increased pests and vermin surviving the winters – rats have increased50% in recent times which may be partly climate related (C-CLIF 2001).

C Reduced winter die-off of bacteria and viruses.

O Less ill health due to living in what are currently cold, damp conditions.

O Less carbon monoxide poisoning due to a reduction in space heatingrequirements.

O Fewer deaths due to hypothermia.


C Increased incidences of mould growth and associated health risks(asthma, allergies etc.), particularly in poorly heated/ventilated housing..

O None identified.


C Danger of being swept to sea by unexpected high tides and sea swells.

O None identified.

Longer Growing C None identified.

Seasons and O Less risk of accidental injury caused by slipping on ice etc.

Reduced Frosts O Fresh healthy and locally produced food available for a longer period.

Flooding Increased C Health risks associated with sewage system overloads.

C Risk to life and health through property flooding.

C Risk of long term psychological impacts on victims of flood events.

O None identified.


C Risk of personal injury due to falling or wind-propelled objects, or damageto infrastructure, electric cables etc.

C Limited risk of direct injury due to weather conditions.

O None identified.


TRANSPORT DOMAIN

ScopeProvision, management, maintenance and useof transport in, to and from the SW (road [incl.bus], rail, air, waterways); Includes supply,demand, investment and infrastructurestrategies, sustainable transport strategies andpromotion.

See also

Business; Tourism; Built Environment

BackgroundThe south west region has a high-densitynetwork of A-, B- and unclassified roads, andtwo principal motorways: M4 and M5 (plusM32). The major trunk road and rail networksprovide spinal routes to the Southwestpeninsula from London and from the Midlands.The major North-South artery is the M5, whichis paralleled by the A38. There are two majortrunk road routes from East Devon towardsCornwall (A30; A38) but only one rail route.The regional airport with greatest passengerflow is Bristol, with lesser flows at Plymouth,Exeter, Bournemouth and also at Newquay,which recently has experienced a significantexpansion of low-cost services to and fromLondon.

The Scillies are connected by air mainly toLand’s End (St Just) and to Penzance(heliport). The region has a very long coastlineand has major freight ports at Portbury andAvonmouth, naval facilities at Devonport andPortland, major natural harbours at Falmouth(claimed to be the third largest in the world)and Poole, plus tourist and pleasure craft atmany coastal resorts. Inland waterwaysoperate principally for leisure/pleasure craft.

In terms of journeys made other than on foot,the private car overwhelmingly dominates.Cycling is a minority pursuit; rail use in theregion is proportionately relatively low, exceptfor inter-city travel between principal urbanareas and to London. Local commuting byroad greatly exceeds that by rail, even in themajor conurbations; indeed within Britain,Bristol has one of the lowest rail-basedcommuting proportions (claimed by DavidRedgwell, Transport 2000, to be under 1%) fora city of its size. (This proportion mightincrease when the LRT scheme for Bristol isbuilt.) Nevertheless, despite well-publiciseddifficulties over punctuality, rail passengerjourneys are increasing, especially inSomerset/Avon/Gloucester — up 12.89% from2000/1 to 2001/2 — and in Cornwall — anannual growth of 6.34% for the same period.

The Exeter–Waterloo line has shown an overallgrowth in passenger journeys of 49% from1994/5 to 2001/2.

The environmental effects of transport areexplored in the Commission of the EuropeanCommission’s White Paper EuropeanTransport Policy for 2010: Time to decide. Thismajor policy consultation document is intendedto provide the basis for a sustainable transportsystem and it counsels a significant shift in thebalance of transport from road and internalEuropean air flights towards rail, shipping andintermodal transport. A key driver therefore forthe direction of future national transport policymay be this recent White Paper on transportpolicy, and this may then cascade into theregional transport strategy.

The context for the South West region isRegional Planning Guidance for the SouthWest (RPG 10), which sets out the RegionalTransport Strategy (RTS) for which theSouthwest Regional Assembly has statutoryresponsibility. The RTS has 5 key objectivesand provides ten transport policy guidelines,including reducing the need for travel (TRAN1), and the maintenance of strategic Inter-urban and Inter-regional transport networks(TRAN 2).

The RTS derives largely from PPG 13(Transport) and is soon to be revised. Itsupdates will be influenced by possible revisionsto the Government’s 10-year Transport Plan,which has been criticised recently by the Houseof Commons Transport Select Committee;future revisions to the Strategic Rail Authority’s(SRA) 10-Year Plan, which presently offersvery little for the south west region; the reportsfrom various multi-modal studies; and thedevelopment of a South West regional publictransport strategy.

Within the region the recommendations of theSWARMMS (London to South Wales andSouth West Area Multi-Modal Study) study ofMay 2002 — and indeed the TVMMS (ThamesValley Multi-Modal Study; continuing), whichmay suggest ways of unlocking capacityimprovements for the west and south west —may be particularly influential, provided theSouth West Regional Assembly can then takethe recommendations forward and lobbyCentral Government for public transportimprovements. A possible forum for helping toidentify priorities for the region may be theSouth West Public Transport Users’ Forum(SWPTUF), which was established recently bythe South West Regional Assembly.

Key IssuesAwareness

• Much of the transport sector in the SouthWest has not yet significantly responded tothe issue of climate change.


• In transport within the region, other issueshave recently dominated the agenda,particularly how to develop the policyresponse to the various multi-modal studiesbeing conducted (e.g., SWARMMS, whichreported in May 2002).

• Climate change has nevertheless beeninvoked by the Strategic Rail Authority asone among several reasons for notextending electrification of the rail networkto the West Country (see quote from SRAChair).

• There is little evidence of awarenessamongst transport operatives of theCommission for the European Union’sWhite Paper on transport policy (except inso far as it directly impacts on theirbusiness).

• There is recognition in the European WhitePaper of relationships between transportuse, emissions and climate change, and theneed for mitigation, but there seems to belimited awareness in the industry ofpossible adaptation responses.

• Hence, climate change is not explicitlytaken into account in the transport sector interms of adaptation (other than perhaps interms of dealing with the effects offlooding). There is some attempt toaddress mitigation through the reduction ofcarbon emissions.

Vulnerability

• Parts of the transport infrastructure of thesouth west are particularly vulnerable toflooding.

• Several towns and major cities within theregion are susceptible to periodic flooding,the frequency of which could increase ifwinter precipitation levels and intensitiesincrease, which would cause majordisruption, especially to road-basedtransport within these towns and cities.

• During Autumn 2000, the South Westpeninsula was effectively cut off from thenational rail network for several weeks byflooding at Cowley Bridge (River Exe), nearExeter, which washed away trackembankment, and at Honiton tunnel.Recurrent severe flooding may sever thelink in the future.

• For several winter months, the Tarka line(Exeter to Barnstaple) has been out of use,owing to flooding and consequent flooddamage. The main (and only) rail line towest Devon and Cornwall is vulnerable tostorm surges, high tides and to cliffinstability near Dawlish. Main rail lines toand from the Midlands and the London-South Wales line (and diversionary route)have been disrupted by flooding especially

in tunnels at Chipping Sodbury, Wickwarand Sapperton.

Implications

• Climate scenarios indicate increasedopportunities for travel to the south west(especially in summer), but the majortransport mode currently is by road,primarily the private car. Motorwaycongestion in summer could be worse iftourism to the South West increases as aresponse to warmer summers.

• The rail network is underdeveloped and isvulnerable, especially to flooding, and thereare no rail diversionary routes from theMidlands to the south west, or from Exeterto west Devon and Cornwall.

• The conflict between satisfying demand fortravel and meeting carbon-reduction targetsgives rise to considerable issues relating totraffic management, demand management,etc.

Adaptation responses

• Where transport planning does engage withthe issue of climate change it seems to beconcentrating more on mitigation (carbonreduction) topics, especially urbancycleways; and on safety issues such astraffic calming; rather than adaptationresponses.

• Adaptation response to the threatenedrailway at Dawlish could be to build a newrail link inland, or to extend the Dartmoorrailway from Meldon, via Okehampton andTavistock, to Bere Alston and Plymouth, toprovide an alternative and diversionaryroute.

Issues of particular regional relevance

Several towns in the region (e.g. Lynmouth;Bruton) have suffered from occasional flash

I am not convinced about thebusiness case for electrification [ofthe Great Western main rail line] …[and] the environmental case is not

as persuasive as it used to be,especially when you take into

account power station emissionsand then there’s the climate changeissue and the fact that electrification

is susceptible to poor weather. I think the case for electrification

has significantly weakened over thelast few years.

Chairman, Strategic Rail Authority,quoted in RAIL, 438, June/July 2002.


flooding, with road links temporarily severed.The A38 is particularly vulnerable to flooding atTewkesbury and in the northern approaches toGloucester. Climate change scenarios suggestroad flooding could become more frequent insuch areas.

The main (and only) railway to West Devon andCornwall runs along the coast through Dawlishand is vulnerable to high tide spray,undercutting (recently combated by a majorprogramme of concrete reinforcementcommissioned by Railtrack), and cliff instabilityon the landward side, producing a recurrentrisk of landslips occasioned by intense orprolonged rain. This rail link is increasinglyvulnerable under climate scenarios of moreintense precipitation, severe storms and highersea levels. It is particularly vulnerable at timesof high tides; indeed, in October 2002 new‘Voyager’ services were suspended during‘exceptional’ high tides, which in scenarios ofhigher sea level will tend towards the normrather than the exception.

Climate warming might attract even more long-term residents to the South West. The regionmight also be perceived as an even moreattractive area for retirement. Thesedemographic changes will have impacts ontransport needs.

Even amongst professionals, the notions of‘sustainability’ and of ‘climate-changemitigation’ can be misrepresented. The

recommendations of the SWARMMS studyhave been couched in terms of sustainability;its proposals reflect the major role thattransport provision can play in this. However,the consequences of some of itsrecommendations may produce precisely theopposite effect from that intended.

For example, the South West RegionalAssembly noted that SWARMMS, inrecommending development of a secondstrategic road route to the south west, argued:“The A303 route through the Blackdown Hills isshorter [than the M5] and will minimise the useof fuel and production of greenhouse gases”.The argument being that a shorter road routewith free-flowing traffic, uses less fuel than alonger route that is congested at peak times.

However, this argument is of course spurious,as creation of an improved road link will resultoverall in increased traffic flows along bothroutes, which generate more greenhouse gasproduction! A ‘do nothing’ option would notrelieve road congestion, and so would notimprove fuel use. Significantly it would alsodeter any markedly increased road use,especially at peak periods (due to driverperception of congestion and increased journeytimes), and so would actually save on whatwould be increased greenhouse gas production(if the A303 be dualled) from increasedvolumes of road traffic.

“Despite increasing concerns onclimate change, there’s a lack of

awareness on how the weather canaffect business on a fundamental

level… The transport sector is buryingits head in the sand more than most —

it’s the least likely to agree that theBritish climate affects business

revenues — and 96% think they spendenough accounting for the weather”

Stephen Lawrenson, Met OfficeCommercial Division Managing Director,

quoted in Railway Strategies, Spring 2002.

As a transport authority, it is interestingto note that, in line with government

policy, we are actively encouraging theuse of sustainable modes of transport inorder to meet, among other things, the

target of reducing the production ofgreenhouse gases.

Some of the climate changes such aswarmer, drier summers will aid this aimand encourage more use of sustainable

modes, whilst other changes, e.g.increased rainfall and flooding, will

discourage such action.

Transport Authority


Notable risks

• Specific locations along the transportinfrastructure of the region are vulnerable toflooding; flooding is more disruptive to railthan road, owing to absence of adequatediversionary routes in the region.

• Weather extremes produce transportdisruption (e.g., severe winds affect the twomajor road bridges over the Severn andclosure to high-sided vehicles; treesbrought down on rail lines).

• Repeated severance of only rail artery tothe South West which could be caused byflooding (e.g. Cowley Bridge) or coastalerosion (Dawlish) or by conditions of highertides; flooding of tunnels on main Midlands-Bristol rail route and London–South Waleslines.

Notable Opportunities

• Create strategic rail diversionary routes tocombat flood/storm/other disruption, notablyby dualling of Exeter–Salisbury route to thesouth west; dualling of Swindon–Kemble (tocreate a diversionary route via Gloucesterto South Wales when tunnelsflooded/closed on main Swindon to SouthWales line); re-opening the Cheltenham–Honeybourne–Stratford line (as analternative route from the South West toBirmingham).

• Potential to use climate change as a tool tohelp develop integrated transport anddiscourage people from needing to travel;this will help promote the sustainabilityagenda. Working from home could becomea more feasible and accepted alternative tothe travel-to-work lifestyle.

• Opportunity to encourage workplace Greentravel plans, as way both of educating thepublic to curb increase in car use and tohelp achieve sustainability agenda ofEuropean White paper on transport.

• Gives greater reason to re-define the Cost-Benefit analysis of rail v. road to takegreater account of (a) carbon emissionsfrom transport; (b) the costs of not just thedirect deaths (comparing road and railaccident rates) but also the indirect deaths(through respiratory ailments, causedlargely by road traffic pollution); (c) theperiod over which capital costs can berecovered, as rail infrastructure is moreexpensive than road but has a longer life-span; (d) other environmental costs oftransport.

The Way ForwardWithin the transport sector, and perhaps moreso than in any other sector other than energysupply, decisions made about developingmitigation responses to climate change alsofeature as adaptation responses (in terms ofdeveloping long-term sustainable transportsystems).

It is not so easy therefore to separate mitigationresponses from those concerned withadaptation. For example, modal shift might bebuilt into planning as a direct result of the multi-modal studies. ARRB Transport Research hassuggested this: "A very positive direction is toinvestigate the concept of a higher densitydevelopment with better land-use mixes aroundrailway nodes and along railway corridors”(Luk et al., 1998, p.1). This for example couldbe incorporated in the development of ClystHayes and development at nodes betweenExeter and Salisbury, with investment inSalisbury–Exeter rail, rather than in upgradingthe road capacity.

For modal shift to be encouraged on othertransport corridors in the south west region, itwould seem that multi-modal studies need tobe given different frames of reference andworking models (unlike, for example, theBristol/Bath to South Coast Multi-Modal (sic)Study, which is largely road-based).

Local initiatives in rural areas, to improvePublic Transport and to help encourage its usecompared with the private car, may be fundedthrough Rural Transport partnerships – a newscheme funded by the Countryside Agency.

The development of integrated transport is inits infancy in the South West, but some pilotschemes — such as the PlusBus scheme atTruro, the ‘bus branchline’ concept in Cornwall,integrated transport in the Fal Estuary, andbus-rail links in Gloucestershire — show thepotential for these. Workplace Green Travelplans are becoming more widespread.

Currently, rail freight in the region isoverwhelmingly dominated by transport of fossilfuels (with a large number of coal trainscarrying imported coal from Portbury Docks).This raises the question as to whether this is asustainable basis for the rail freight network inthe longer term. Diversification, and expansionof other rail-freight activity, including wagon-loads, the use of freight multiple units,intermodal facilities and the provision ofdedicated freight sidings and freight distributionyards may be more appropriate in the longerterm.

One example is the site plan for developmentof a 25-hectare site near Swindon alongsidethe Honda car manufacturing plant, whichincludes provision for an intermodal terminaland rail-linked warehousing. Another is CabotPark, a distribution park that has provision forrail-linked warehousing and an intermodalterminal, close to Bristol Port.


Sustainability issues

There seems to be a disjunction between theworthy ‘sustainability’ aspirations of theEuropean White paper and of LTPs and thecontinuing national and regional increase in carownership and car use. The abandonment ofthe Fuel Cost Escalator in the UK in responseto fuel-price protests means that models offuture motoring traffic growth (including roadfreight) may underestimate the growth in roaduse.

If environmental sustainability is to be achievedthere is an even greater case (as argued bySUSTRANS and Transport 2000) for makingcycling more possible and rail an affordablealternative to the private car in the south west.Education of the general public will be required,but this raises questions as to the ethics ofsocial engineering on a large scale.

Knowledge levels

In a recent study conducted by theMeteorological Office, 20% of transport bossessaid they do not take the weather into account,but feel that they should. The transport sectorwas the most likely of those questioned to failto meet deadlines owing to weather-relatedproblems.

Nevertheless, a recent (2000) appointment toRailtrack (Great Western Zone) has been madewhose responsibility is (i) to analyse impacts ofweather and climate on performance so causesare better understood and can either bemitigated or better predicted; (ii) brief thecontrol centre on use of weather informationand produce seasonal preparednessdocuments for winter, summer and autumn; (iii)attend a national weather group (withrepresentatives from all zones) and feed backbest practice on weather related issues to GWzone; (iv) provide advice on potential impactsof climate change for Railtrack staff at HQ inLondon and within GW zone.

Railtrack (successor: Network Rail) hasrecently set up a climate strategy group with aninitial remit to look at the next 10 years.However, there is no group looking beyond thisperiod (yet), none dealing with climate changein the train operating companies, nor inregional road-freight hauliers.

In this context it is not surprising that climatechange issues do not yet figure highly amongstsenior professionals in the transport industry. Itdoes feature, however, as a driver for changein the European Union White paper, in LTPsetc., and in campaigning organizations such asSUSTRANS and Transport 2000.

The transport policy direction shown in theEuropean White paper contrasts withcontinuing development of domestic airservices to and from the region, which are (perpassenger) very wasteful in terms of fuel, not a

feature of 'green' transport and sit very uneasilywith notions of 'sustainable development'.

The Highways Agency is aware of issuesconcerning increased frequency of intenserainfall events and of the need to develop thecapability of the carriageway to cope withexcess water. Within the South West region,the vulnerability of main rail lines to closurefrom flood or storm damage emphasises theneed for adaptation responses; these shouldinclude the urgent development ofalternative/diversionary rail routes, so as toensure operational flexibility. This will facilitatemodal shift from road to rail, as a maindeterrent to rail travel and rail freight use is aperceived unreliability of services.

Awareness of climate change is subliminal inthe transport sector. Few operators and fewerstrategists have engaged with the issue. Thetransport sector is a major contributor to carbondioxide emissions, and so is particularlyrelevant for mitigation measures. For example,highlighted in the SWARMMS study is the needto develop the rail infrastructure of the SouthWest region (framed in the context ofsustainable development), and there is also aneed to eliminate rail bottlenecks to ensure thatmodal shift from road to rail is possible so thatnational rail passenger and freight growth

Surface vehicles are a greater problemthan aircraft in terms of pollution and

thus climate change impact. [Thisignores the per capita production of

CO2 from aircraft]

From a contributor in the air industry

Within Great Western zone, someprojects have taken climate change into

account at the design stage so thatschemes that will be around for

decades in the future can be expectedto withstand the changing weather

patterns. One such example of this isChipping Sodbury tunnel. This floodsmaybe once or twice during a typicalwinter. At present a scheme is being

designed to pump the water to holdingfields before being discharged to riverswhen the levels have fallen. The rainfall

amounts used in the design for thepumping capacity and other aspects

took account of climate change.

Railtrack (Great Western Zone)


targets can be achieved (there are no agreedregional targets).

At present, the Strategic Rail Authority (SRA)seems unaware of potential adaptationresponses to the climate change issue (exceptto see climate change as an excuse not toinvest in electrification of the Great WesternMain Line) and has not so far been able tocapitalise on rail’s ‘greener’ image in transportin the South West. Perhaps adaptation toclimate change could form part of the ‘businesscase’ for developing the rail network in theSouth West, whereas the assumed axiomatic‘business case’ for road investment should becounterbalanced by the environmental costs ofincreased carbon emissions that increasedroad capacity would produce.

There is clearly a need to consider predictedclimate change when making long-termdecisions about the provision and upgrading oftransport infrastructure, vehicles and rollingstock. Ways to take this forward are suggestedin a recent report by Wilson & Burtwell (2002).

Potential barriers

There is a dearth of finance available and atpresent a lack of political will to develop the railnetwork within the region significantly. Railschemes have to pass stringent economic teststo show a return on investment, and theStrategic Rail Authority has in each instance tomake out a strong “business case”, which atpresent does not include taking account ofclimate change issues (except in a negativesense).

This contrasts with the effectiveness of theHighways Agency in finding access to financefor road schemes, the strength of the road userorganisations, and in the assumed (almostaxiomatic) business benefits that would flowfrom bypasses and other new road schemes.In the current Strategic Rail Authority 10-yearplan, for example, there is no money to deliverthe rail recommendations made in theSWARMMS study.

Significant numbers of the general publicremain to be persuaded or are still unaware ofthe climate change issue and the role thattransport can play in helping to mitigate or toadapt to anticipated changes.

As regards congestion charging and workplacelevy charging in urban areas, there is little signof many of these being introduced as yet. Thisis because the general feeling in localauthorities is that the public remain hostile, andthat public transport improvements need tocome first, before the charges can beintroduced; so any planning that assumes themoney from charges will fund the start of publictransport improvements is flawed.

There is an opportunity here to learn from thelight rail (or combined light/heavy) schemesthat have delivered passenger growth (e.g.Manchester and Tyne & Wear) and to analysereasons for success, so that best practice canbe introduced within the region (e.g. in Bristol).

The really serious changes for societyrest with the NEED TO TRAVEL for workand recreation, BUT this moves quicklyinto the realms of social re-engineering

and qualities of life arguments andexclusion for some sections of society.… research could extend to examine the

impacts on climate to be derived fromhaving a significant part of thepopulation working from home.

Source unknown


Challenges and Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts in Transport Domain



C More visitors to the South West, so potentially increased roadcongestion and lack of rail capacity.

C Increased pollution from increased road traffic (leading to increasedincidence of asthma and other respiratory problems, and so devaluingquality of life – one of the region’s greatest assets).

C Rail expansion and danger of rail buckling, resulting in imposition ofTemporary Speed Restrictions.

O Encourage use of sustainable transport – bus, rail, walking and cyclingto alleviate congestion on roads and protect the environment.

O More opportunities to encourage tourism related to outdoor activities e.g.walking and cycling, public transport and circular walks, etc.

O Potential for publicity working with public transport operators,countryside access and tourism board.

O Opportunity to re-link Newquay to St Austell by rail, to provide directregional rail link and so facilitate more tourism by rail within Cornwall,rather than by private car (Currently only 17% of rail traffic on Newquayline is local; information: Wessex Trains).


C Extension of tourist season in South West, especially to surfing resortssuch as Newquay, increasing the period of congestion in the region.

O Less frost damage to roads from winter cold, so potentially less frequentneed for road repairs.

O Fewer points failures on rail lines.

O Reduced frequency of use of rock salt for de-icing on roads, so savingsfrom County budgets on salting works.

O Fewer ice/snow related road traffic accidents.

O Increased probability of meeting road accident reduction targets.

Flooding Increased C Flood risk to major roads in and between major cities, includingGloucester (A38); and in major towns including Tewkesbury.

C Flash-flood risk in Devon and Cornwall from high-intensity storms,disrupting travel.

C On roads, more surface water overload.

C Delays to public transport schedules and freight movements, owing toroute flooding, bridge scour/damage.

C Perceived high risk of mainline rail connection to region being severedby flooding.

C Major issues of flooding at a number of vulnerable points on the railnetwork, including Cowley Bridge (R. Exe); the Tarka (Barnstaple) line;Sapperton and Chipping Sodbury tunnels; and just to the north of thesouth west region (disrupting the mainline between Cheltenham andBirmingham).

O For rail, opportunity to develop strategic alternative routes (e.g. dual theSalisbury-Exeter rail line; dual Swindon–Kemble; create new line Exeterto Plymouth, via Okehampton–Tavistock; reopen Honeybourne routeCheltenham–Birmingham) to provide robustness of communicationswhen other lines are flooded and/or tunnels closed.

Summer Rainfall C Subsidence to roads (and rail), especially in clay areas.

Reduced O Risk of subsidence provides an opportunity to justify substantialembankment strengthening and capacity improvements, facilitatinggeneral benefit to rail services.




C Fewer opportunities to encourage walking and cycling, thus encouragingmore cars onto the roads

C Failure to meet targets for these sustainable modes of transport.

C Traffic moving to and between towns and cities vulnerable to floods.

C Major challenge to keep Tarka (Barnstaple) rail line open.

O Provide better bus shelters and rail-platform canopies.

O Lobby rail industry (Strategic Rail Authority; Train Operating Companies)and central government to ensure good rail links are maintained, andalternative rail routes are developed.

O Increase in air travel over rail travel to Devon and Cornwall, ifimprovements to airport capacity provided [Note: this in conflict withneed to reduce greenhouse emissions, and against recommendations ofEuropean White paper]

Increased Sea Levelsand Tides

C Vulnerability of sole rail route to south-west peninsula at Dawlish attimes of high tide; vulnerability exacerbated by rising sea-levels or stormsurges; high tides exacerbate drainage problems further inland (e.g.north of Exeter)

O Construct alternative rail route Exeter-Plymouth, to ensure peninsula isnot cut off from the rest of the national network, as happened inAutumn/Winter 2000-2001, and to encourage modal shift, road to rail.

O Flood risk reinforces the case to redouble whole of rail line Salisbury toExeter, to provide alternative and diversionary route.


C Encroachment of vegetation obscuring road signs, requiring morefrequent maintenance and therefore increased costs.

C Increased weed growth on rail tracks requiring extra maintenance.

C Footpaths overgrown requiring increased maintenance or limiting use.

O Potential to increase the number of walking and cycling friendly routes.

O Walking and cycling become more attractive for commuters, every dayactivities, and tourism.


C More trees falling onto road and rail network, so higher budget and moreoperatives required to maintain and clear network.

C Increased risks to transport infrastructure.

C Less opportunity for helicopter and fixed wing planes to fly to the Isles ofScilly, so difficulty in keeping air link to Scillies open.

C Rail electrification may not be viable owing to increased risk of stormdamage.

C Train operating companies required to run replacement bus services onalready overcrowded roads if no alternative rail route is developed.

O Opportunity to encourage the construction of alternative anddiversionary rail routes to and from South West.


UTILITIES DOMAIN

ScopeThe provision and maintenance of utilitysupplies including considerations of supply anddemand of energy (electricity, gas, oil, coal)and telecom services.

See Also

Water resources, Built environment, ICT.

BackgroundThe south west, like the rest of the UK, isheavily dependant on fossil fuel for electricity,transport and heating needs. In 2001 theenergy generation within the South West wasestimated to be in the region of 3,950 MW,largely from nuclear power stations that arenearing the end of their lifespan. There is anew gas fired power station due to come online by 2010.

There is a growing awareness in the region fora need to develop renewable energyresources, and in fact the region hosts the UK’sfirst commercial wind farm, in North Cornwall.Cornwall in particular has been proactive in thefield of renewables and produces over thenational average for renewable energy, largelythrough wind power. The recent renewableenergy audit for the south west suggests thatthe region can do much more in this area, andsets out ambitious targets for the next fewdecades.

Solid fuel and some gas supplies aretransported through the region by road and rail.Large quantities are also imported through theregion’s ports. Considerations affecting theseare dealt with under other sectors as beingprimarily concerns of transport and the marinesector.

The far south-western parts of the region relyheavily on electricity carried through anextensive cable network which bottlenecks atcertain strategic points, such as Indian Queensin mid Cornwall.

Key Issues• Space heating requirements will be

reduced, but summer energy loadsincreased due to a greater demand forcooling (air conditioning).

• Increased use of renewable energy (RE) ispossible, although changes in future wind,wave and solar conditions will influenceplanning considerations.

• Storm events may increasingly affectstorm drainage and sewers, which are

already highly susceptible to flooding, thusimpacting on underground cables, pipesetc. for electricity, telecommunications andother utilities.

• Changing rainfall patterns may influencehydroelectric power output.

• Rising sea levels may increase the numberof underground cable faults.

• Increased development of resource useefficiency measures is likely.

• Increased tourism and a growingpopulation may increase pressure onsupplies and require expansion ofinfrastructure.

• Existing infrastructure may be atincreasing risk from storm events, sealevel rise and coastal erosion.

Specific Climate Issues

The periferality of much of the extreme SouthWest will make disruption to supply that muchmore time consuming to remedy. At the sametime, many of the organisations involved withutilities provision are not based in those areaslikely to be first affected by climate change, andare so not perhaps as “switched on” as mightotherwise be the case.

Particular risks

• Damage to cabling both underground(flooding, subsidence) and above ground(flooding, extreme weather events).

• Reduction in heating demand may reducemarkets in some instances.

• Large scale loss of power to the regionthrough damage “upstream” of the region,caused by extreme events. In particular forthe far south-western parts of thepeninsular.

The Way ForwardThere currently seems to be little real concernin these sectors, which will have to beaddressed before progress can be made. Thatbeing accepted, there are a number of potentialdrivers that could bring the debate andeventually action, forward in the region.

• Energy – Government targets and financialincentives will encourage, or otherwise, thedevelopment of the renewables industry.

• Demand for affordable private airconditioning units will drive the market forthis technology.


• Public pressure for continuity of supply bothin energy and telecommunications will be amajor factor in how these industriesrespond to the potential threats due toclimate change.

Particular opportunities for the region

• Development of community renewableenergy schemes connected to locallyoperated and connected grids would allowa sustainable use of power while protectingthe region from disruption caused bysituations occurring outside the region itself.

• Development of a market for airconditioning.

• Development of new equipment better ableto withstand the predicted conditions.

Knowledge base

There appears to be very little involvementwithin the South West energy andtelecommunications sectors as to the impactsand opportunities of climate change. Thiswould suggest that there is a considerableneed for an increase in information for thissector.

The CCIRG publication “Review of thePotential Effects of Climate Change in theUnited Kingdom” (1996) states that littleresearch into physical impacts of climatechange on the UK energy sector had beenconducted at that time, and that furthermorethere was little point in conducting suchresearch until better, more regional projectionsof climate change became available. With thepublication of the UKCIP02 scenarios, thismight now become a more viable proposition. Astudy of the impacts of climate change on theelectricity supply industry, funded by EPSRC(working with UKCIP) is due to begin in Spring2003.


Challenges and Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts in Utilities Domain



C Capabilities of equipment used to transport electricity generally reduce withincreased temperature. May need to invest in network improvements.

C Traditionally increased temperature relates to a reduction in electricitydemand, which may be broken by increased use of air conditioning. Thismight require maintenance programmes to be rescheduled to cope withshifting demand/system capacity relationships.

C Cooling water in power stations less effective due to increasedtemperature.

O Potential for development of air conditioning business.


C Subsidence effects could damage underground cabling, pipe networks etc.(Not believed by TRANSCO to be a threat to gas infrastructure).

C Reduced water supply available for cooling water in power stations.

O Reduced rainfall may allow for easier and swifter summer maintenancework.

Increased Winter C Potential problem to power companies arising from increased demand forheating and therefore reduced sales..

Temperature O Reduced winter demand for electricity may reduce the need for investmentin increased network capacity.


C Access to land for fault repair may be impeded and maintenanceprogrammes more difficult to carry out. There may be a need for increased4-wheel drive/tracked vehicle capacity for access on soft ground.


C Coastal power stations and distribution network could be at risk from bothsea level rise and increased tidal heights.

C Rising sea levels would increase the length of cabling under water andcould increase the number of underground cable problems.


C More tree trimming might be required to maintain clearance for overheadlines if tree growth starts earlier and continues for longer.

Reduced Frosts O Possible less risk of frost damage to underground infrastructure. (Limiteddue to frost precautions already taken.)

Flooding Increased C Electricity supply services have the capacity to be affected by river flooding,standing water and slope flooding and by drainage system overload.

C Substations may need isolating during extreme flood events. Extraattention is already applied to substation design if placed in a floodingprone area.

C Public may be at risk from overhead power lines if using boats on floodedland.

PotentiallyIncreased Winds

C Windborne debris can damage overhead equipment and cause powerinterruptions.

and Storms C Wind speeds over 100mph can cause direct damage to overheadequipment.

C Increased frequency of damage will require more frequent maintenance.

C Increased storm intensity may ultimately require a revision to equipmentstandards.


CHAPTER 8

BUSINESS SECTOR DOMAINSLIKELY IMPACTS & POSSIBLEADAPTATION RESPONSES

IntroductionThis section considers those domains in theSouth West which fit broadly under the heading of‘the business sector’. Such headings arenecessarily arbitrary but have proved useful inprogressing and reporting on the study. Becauseof the wide range of commercial and industrialactivity in the region the decision was made tolimit the study to certain key sectors. Thereforethis section focuses explicitly on the prioritysectors which the SWRDA has identified as themain vehicle for economic development in theregion. So, the section explores the followingimpact domains:

1. Advanced engineering

2. Biotechnology

3. Environmental technology

4. Financial services

5. Food and drink

6. Information Communication Technology (ICT)

7. Leisure and tourism

8. Marine engineering

9. Tele-marketing

(For details of the methodology adopted forresearching and reporting on these domainsplease see Annex 2.)

This introductory section precedes the detailedconsideration of each domain and considerssome of the general issues relating to the entirebusiness community. It is followed by a table ofrecommendations for the business sector andindividual domains.

Business activity will be significantly affected byclimate change, whether through direct impacts offuture climate, such as increased flooding, orthrough new market opportunities presented inareas such as tourism or environmentaltechnologies. In addition, activities within thebusiness community by their very nature have aneffect on all of society. Therefore, it is importantthat impacts and adaptation options forbusinesses are at the forefront of any climatechange studies or policies. It is also evidenthowever, that despite the potential for businessesto drive forward the climate change debate andboth stimulate and develop solutions to the issue,there are very few business sectors, and even

fewer individual businesses, for whom climatechange adaptation is considered a serious issue.

Mitigating climate change, on the other hand, hasbecome increasingly focussed on businessesthrough the fight to reduce greenhouse gasemissions and in particular through theintroduction of the Climate Change Levy in April2001 which levies a tax on the use of commercial,non-renewable energy. Unfortunately, manybusinesses view the imposition of these financialcosts as simply an additional burden and do notappreciate the issues behind the legislation andthe incentive to reduce greenhouse gasemissions.

More awareness raising is needed to ensure thatbusinesses are at the forefront of climate changeadaptation in the South West.

Business Profile of the South WestThe business environment within the South Westconsists of 203,900 business establishments withthe majority (85.4%) employing less than 10people. (This is slightly higher than the nationalfigure of 84.%). Just 1.3% of workplaces employover 100 people in the South West, slightly lessthan nationally. Although medium and largeworkplaces (employing 25 or more people) areheavily outnumbered by small workplaces, theformer provide the bulk of employment in theSouth West. Over three quarters of jobs in theSouth West are provided by medium and largeworkplaces.

Reflecting the small scale of many businesses,the region has one of the highest rates ofbusiness failure in the UK, with 4,514 businessesfailing in 1997, equivalent to 2.5% of all businessin the region. This is far in excess of the nationalaverage of 1.8%, despite the actual number offailures falling by almost 16% on the previousyear. This suggests that there may be a need toimprove business support and informationservices within the region on many issues, ofwhich climate change may be one.

The region has a similar rate of new businessformation, 40 registrations per ten thousandpeople in 1998, to that experienced across theU.K. as a whole. New businesses in the SouthWest fare slightly better than average in terms oftheir longer term survival with 63.8% ofbusinesses registered in 1995 surviving for threeyears compared with 61% nationally.

Due to its rural nature the South West has aparticularly large concentration of businesses inthe agriculture, forestry and fishing sector,accounting for almost 13% of all businessestablishments in the region.

The region also has a higher than average shareof establishments in the mining, quarrying andenergy sector reflecting the industrial strengths ofthe region. Other key sectors in the region includetourism, with the South West attracting more than


21m visitors each year, and information andcommunication technologies.

Those organisations and businesses directlyinvolved in the protection and enhancement of thenatural environment also play an important rolewith at least 1,376 jobs directly employed in thissector in the region contributing an estimated£26m to regional GDP (Source: RSPB Study).This reflects the growing importance being placedon enhanced environmental quality in creatingconditions for inward investment and businessgrowth, particularly for tourism but also in areas offilm and media, and quality of life for residents.

The environment plays a significant part in thequality of life in the South West, in turn attractingpeople to live and work in the region. In a recentsurvey of company executives, 57% stated thatoverall quality of life was the most importantpersonal factor for relocation to another city.

Research and Development (R&D) by businessesis greater in the region than the national average -but trails business R&D spending in the east andsouth east. Government R&D in the South Westis slightly higher than the UK average, while R&Dactivity by higher education is slightly lower.

The South West has been successful in attractinginward investors, particularly in the east of theregion, including Bristol and Swindon. Thesefirms are concentrated in hi-tech, research,automotive, plastics and food processing clusters,and employ large numbers of people. Over 1,200overseas-owned companies have located in theregion, constituting 25% of the region’s hi-techmanufacturing cluster which employs 50,000people, and with a major presence in a number ofother sectors including automotives, plastics, ICTand food processing.

Climate Change:The Challenges and Opportunities forBusinessesWeather conditions already have significantimpacts upon business activities, includingdisruption to supply lines, over- or under-stockingof goods, loss of work days for outdoor activities,infrastructure damage, overtime costs, financialpenalties for late projects and health effects onstaff.

A recent survey suggests that British businesseslose on average 11.54 days trading each year asa result of the climate (Met Office, 2001). Thecumulative costs of these impacts are around£7.6 billion per year, or up to 10% of companyprofits. Despite the fact that 75% of businessesrecognised the impacts of climate, 47% thoughttheir business wasn't sensitive to the weather,and only 17% take climate into account whenplanning business activities.

A major barrier for the business sector generallyis the difficulty in perceiving climate change as acurrent matter for attention, rather than a distant

concern for beyond the 2020’s. Businesses tendto plan only a few years ahead, and rarelyrecognise situations occurring today – e.g.reduced winter heating bills, higher insurancecosts, increased flood risk etc. as being asymptom of climate change to which they arealready exposed.

Future climate change scenarios suggest thatsignificant business impacts will take place as aresult of a number of climatic variables.Throughout all sectors generic impacts willinclude:

• Direct infrastructure impacts as a result ofincreased flooding, subsidence during dryweather, coastal erosion, windstorm impactsand water intrusion.

• Changes to resource usage, in particularincreased energy demands for cooling insummer months, and reduction in winterheating demands.

• Changes to internal conditions withinfacilities, primarily hotter in both summer andwinter, impacting upon production processesand worker health.

• Changes to external conditions for outdoorworkers, primarily hotter summers and wetterwinters.

• Health impacts as a result of higher internaland external temperatures, increased wintersurvival of diseases and other risks.

• Impacts upon supply lines, staff availabilityand business activities as a result of flooding,subsidence, and storm impacts on transportand communications facilities.

• Climate change impacts upon markets andcustomers on a regional, national andinternational scale.

• Changes to planning and building regulationsas a result of perceived climate impacts andrelated government legislation.

• Changes to insurance costs and coverage, inparticular in vulnerable geographic areas oreconomic sectors, such as operations withinfloodplains. Financial implications related tothis may include changes to mergers andacquisitions, a lack of inward investment andan inability to develop or sell facilities.

• The potential for litigation against companieswho provide services which are subsequentlyimpacted upon by climate change. As aresult businesses may become susceptible tolegal challenges if their products and servicesdo not allow for climate changes. This is anarea that needs further investigation, andmay well prove to be a driving force behindmany businesses accommodating climatechange in future projects.


Despite the potential risks and costs of theseimpacts, significant market opportunities exist formany business sectors to develop climate-proofproducts and services which reduce climateimpacts and increase adaptability. In addition,opportunities exist within specific sectors such asflood defence technologies, tourism andenvironmental services to capitalise on both thepositive and negative impacts of climate change.The expanding market for cleaner technologiesand low carbon products means that many newopportunities exist within this field and manybusinesses may choose to diversify into theseareas.

Despite these significant new marketopportunities, both in the South West andglobally, many businesses will be slow to react ontheir own. It is likely that government legislation,including changes to planning regulations, andfinancial penalties or incentives will be a majordriving force behind business changes. It is likelythat many forms of legislation will be in responseto a demand to mitigate climate change and arecognised need to prevent catastrophic losses invulnerable areas, such as along coastal regions.

However, the potential savings for business ofconsidering the climate today and accommodatingfuture changes means that corporate growthcould be increased by considering climate andclimate change as soon as possible.

Proposed actions for all businesses toaccommodate climate change include thefollowing:

1 Investigate potential climate change impactson their business.

2 Create a management position withresponsibility for climate change.

3 Report risks in annual reports.

4 Provide funding for climate change relatedactivities in future budgets.

5 Appoint a climate change task force.

6 Develop and implement a climate changeaction plan.

7 Assess the effectiveness of the action planand make further improvements.

8 Quantify greenhouse gas emissions and setreduction targets.

9 Communicate actions and findings to thepublic and shareholders.

10 Maintain links with stakeholders, researchersand the media.

Table 8.1

Proposed Actions for all Businesses

(Salt, 2001)


Recommendations for Business Domains

• Identify managerial responsibility withinindividual companies for addressing theimpacts of climate change.

• Carry out simple risk assessment appropriateto scope of business based upon climatechange scenarios.

• Risk assessment should include: health;supply lines; infrastructure; insurance;litigation, customer demand, etc.

• Specifically investigate the challenges andopportunities presented by climate changewith regard to the market for goods andservices provided by the company.

• Recognise that markets will be influenced byclimate change impacts at a regional, nationaland global scale.

• In reviewing market threats and opportunitiesconsider potential changes in lifestyle broughtabout by climate change.

• Monitor greenhouse emissions at company orsite level and take steps to reduce them inorder to reduce the potential for globalwarming.

• Identify appropriate policy frameworks withinwhich to nest adaptation strategies.

• Co-ordinate the development of climatechange strategies within each business sectorin the region, possibly through TradeAssociations, Professional Institutes, etc

• Explore commercial opportunities foradvanced engineering in the development of‘flood-proof’ infrastructure to accommodatehigher storm surges and tides.

• Explore commercial opportunities for thedevelopment of new technologies inrenewable energy.

• Undertake further research on climate changeimpacts on agriculture (e.g. droughtconditions) and potential for biotechnology inadapting to new climatic conditions.

• Increase awareness of potential impacts ofclimate change in order to increase marketopportunities for environmental technologysector.

• Encourage insurance industry to be moreopen in its deliberations on emerging policywith regard to climate change impacts.

• Encourage the finance sector to identifyinvestment opportunities with regard to climatechange mitigation including low-carbontechnologies.

• Explore the potential for new local crops andproduce as part of regional and sub-regionalstrategies for marketing local food and drinkspecialities. Use SWRDA sector developmentproject as one vehicle for this work.

• Explore and monitor implications of globalimpacts on regional tourism and leisureactivity.

• Provide co-ordinated strategy and support fordisparate and often small businesses in thetourism and leisure industry. Use SWRDAsector development project as one vehicle forthis work, in conjunction with Tourism SouthWest and relevant trade associations.

• Try to spread visitor numbers throughout theyear by extending tourist season to avoidfurther stresses on already stretchedinfrastructure


ADVANCED ENGINEERING ANDAERONAUTICAL INDUSTRYDOMAIN

Scope Commercial activities associated with advancedengineering, including aerospace engineering,medical devices and automotive vehicles andcomponents.

See Also

Biotechnology, ICT, Environmental Technology,Coastal Erosion and Flood Defences, BuiltEnvironment, Utilities and Transport.

Background This business sector is comprised of large multi-national companies who are major employerswithin specific geographic areas, as well assmaller regionally based components suppliers,expert consultants, and sales and distributioncompanies.

Businesses within this sector are clusteredtogether in a number of pockets throughout theregion, including; aeronautical engineering inBristol, car production in Swindon, Helicopterproduction in Taunton, marine engineering in andaround Plymouth, and medical relatedengineering throughout many areas.

As a result advanced engineering is an importantemployer and contributor to the regionaleconomy, and in some areas has replaced moregeneralised engineering, in particular traditionaldefence based industries.

In addition this sector has attracted a largevolume of inward investment into the region anddeveloped the South West prestige overseas. Asa result Advanced Engineering is a sector inwhich investment is being made by the SWRDAto further enhance the region’s economic prowessand to ensure that new technologies andadvances are competitive.

Key Issues• Changes to manufacturing processes may be

required to accommodate increased internaland external heat.

• Opportunities to develop engineering solutionsto climate change impacts in many economicsectors and geographic regions.

• Changes to health risks as a result of climatechange providing new opportunities formedical technologies.

• Impacts upon infrastructure, supply lines andcustomers.

• Increased costs as a result of restricted watersupplies and changes to energy costs.

• Increased levels of down time as a result ofloss of energy supplies andtelecommunications during periods of extremeclimate impacts.

• The introduction of global climate changemitigation legislation is likely to provide bothchallenges and opportunities to this sectorthrough the development of low carbontechnologies.

• Opportunities exist to develop on-site “climateproof” energy supplies using renewableenergy technologies.

General Concerns for the Industry

This sector will incur similar infrastructure andtransportation impacts as other business sectors.The result is an increased disruption tomanufacturing processes through flooding ofsites, rain intrusion into buildings, storm impacts,increased levels of subsidence during hot, dry,summers and impacts along coastal regions.Furthermore, transport links, particularly coastalinstallations such as ports and railway lines maybe disrupted, as would electricity andtelecommunications connections. Some impactsshould, however, be offset by a reduction in coldweather effects, in particular a decline frostrelated impacts.

Repair and insurance costs are likely overall toincrease and changes to planning guidelines totake account of climate change will affect plantexpansion and other developments. Furthermore,the high dependency of this sector upon suppliersnationally, as well as the global markets it isinvolved in, results in it being very susceptible toclimate impacts in other regions.

Components within manufacturing/engineeringprocesses may be affected by changes in heatingconditions and related requirements for increasedcoolants. Potential reductions in water suppliesduring dry summer periods may exacerbate thisproblem further. In addition increased heatingmoderation in offices and factories have relatedhealth impacts and affect worker productivity, thusrequiring changes to building design andheating/ventilation processes.

The Way Forward Despite the potential for considerable impacts inmany operational areas, this sector has thepotential to contribute significant engineeringsolutions to many of the climate impacts on aglobal scale. This may include the developmentof “flood proof” infrastructure, includingengineered flood defences, and installationssimilar to the Thames Barrier to accommodatehigher storm surges and tides.


In addition the development and increased use ofrenewable energy products within this sector andothers will result in increased demand fortechnologies such as solar power, heat exchangetechnologies and tidal power installations. Theuse of on-site renewable energy will also reducedependency upon vulnerable energy distributioninfrastructure, and reduce energy costs related tofossil fuel combustion. The development ofresource efficient products for global markets willprovide a substantial opportunity for engineeringcompanies, including such things as energyefficient vehicles.

New markets are likely to result from changes indemand for products related to climatic conditionson a global scale, such as increased demand forsoft top cars and changes to health risks andrelated technology demands. Furthermore,demands for technologies which control or reducegreenhouse gas emissions within transportationand manufacturing process present aconsiderable short to medium term opportunity forbusinesses within this sector. This may includecarbon dioxide fixing and disposal technologies.

Mitigating climate change is an important issue forthis sector, as it remains dependent upon large-scale energy use and may produce high levels ofgreenhouse gases. As a result this sector maysusceptible to government legislation, and maybenefit from activities such as emissions tradingschemes.

Mechanisms for Change

As with many economic sectors, advancedengineering will respond to a combination ofcustomer demand, risk avoidance, costs, andgovernment legislation. There is likely to belimited activities within many businesses toaccommodate climate change impacts on a largescale. Drivers will include demands fortechnologies which have lower levels ofgreenhouse gas emissions. In addition increasingdemands for flood defences and relatedengineering activities will be a significant driver onthe product side of the business.

On the production side the primary drivers toconsider climate change will be direct andperceived costs, in particular costs as a result ofimpacts such as flooding over a sustained period,and insurance costs. Linked into this will bechanges in building and planning regulationswhich will dictate where and how facilities can beexpanded.

The introduction of further government legislationand incentives to both mitigate and accommodateclimate change will also act as one of the primarydrivers for change in this business sector.

Barriers to Change

Traditional engineering and manufacturing hasoften been slow to respond to changes withinenvironmental parameters. However, the new

generation of engineering firms covered withinthis sector have developed into more flexibleorganisations than in the past. This is aconsequence of the fluctuations within globalbusiness markets, but may prove to make themresponsive to climate change.

Uncertainties within climate predictions coupledwith the difficulties for businesses toaccommodate climate change impacts pose aconsiderable barrier to change. In addition thecost of making changes to engineering plants andother facilities are considerable and unlikely totake place until higher knowledge levels aredeveloped within the sector.


There is little evidence to suggest that adaptationto climate change has been considered within thissector. However, the consideration of flood risksand planning changes is evident and this mayprompt future adaptation considerations as theissue becomes more integrated within thebusiness sector.


Challenges and Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts in Advanced Engineeringand Aeronautical Industry DomainClimate Impact Challenge and OpportunitySummertime TemperatureIncreased

C

C

Increased coolant costs for offices and manufacturing processes.

Health effects upon staff working in offices and factories.

C Health effects on staff working outdoors.

O Change in market demand for products, e.g. Soft top cars.

O Increased use of solar power and heat exchange technology withinthe manufacturing process.

Wintertime TemperatureIncreased

C The need to change current heating and ventilation systems withinbuildings to meet new building guidelines.

O Positive impacts upon energy costs and staff health.

O A reduction in cold weather impacts on supplies, manufacturingprocesses and infrastructure.

Flooding Increased C Direct infrastructure damage, and indirect impacts upon supplies andmarkets.

C Increased insurance costs and changes to planning regulationsaffecting infrastructure development.

O New products/markets for engineered flood defences and “floodproof” infrastructure.

Reduced Summer Rainfall C Restricted water supplies with association cost implications.

C Risk of subsidence in vulnerable areas.

O Increased use of solar power technologies in manufacturing.

O Opportunities for expanded work outside of buildings.

Increased Winter Rainfall C Impacts on infrastructure, in particular buildings and installations.

C Increased down-time and delays as a result of water intrusion.

O On-site water collection and storage operations.

O Increased water supplies during winter months.


C Direct and indirect impacts on infrastructure, markets and supplies, inparticular impacts on port facilities, and coastal installations.

O Engineering solutions to storm surges and tidal inundation.

O New engineering requirements for coastal infrastructure and shipdesign.

O The possibility to develop products for tidal power generation

Longer Growing Seasonand Reduced Frosts

C

O

None identified.

A reduction in frost impacts.


C Increased direct and indirect impacts on infrastructure and supplies/markets.

C Increased repair costs and insurance costs.

C Increased down-time through loss of energy supplies.

O The opportunity to develop on-site energy sources, such as windturbines and other renewable energies.


BIOTECHNOLOGY DOMAIN

ScopeCommercial activities operating within the realmof biotechnologies; including medical techniquesand equipment development, technologiesderived from or responding to natural/ biologicalprocesses, and monitoring of biological indicators.

See Also

Agriculture; Health; Built Environment

BackgroundThe SWRDA has identified over 100 companieswithin the region which fit into this description ofthe developing biotechnology sector. However,connected business sectors, includingenvironmental technologies and agriculture whichare well established in the region, are likely to beimpacted in a similar way to this sector. Inaddition impacts within the ICT sector and othertechnology developers will have considerableimpact upon what is in essence a verytechnologically dependent economic sector.

Many biotechnology companies are of a smallscale and in some cases are recently established.The need for considerable resources and contactwith leading scientific research has resulted inmany spin-out companies from researchestablishments in the region. This is particularlytrue for a number of businesses operating out ofthe Tamar Science Park in Plymouth which havebeen set-up in conjunction with the University ofPlymouth.

Biotechnology is one of the key sectors within theSWRDA development strategy for the region andhas its own co-ordinator position.

Key IssuesContext

Recent issues surrounding the geneticmodification of foods and other biotechnologicaldevelopments have highlighted the challengesthis sector faces. However, potential climatechange impacts on a global scale will againhighlight the need for drought or flood resistantcrops and other biotechnological advances, thusproviding opportunities for companies in the SouthWest. The conflicting demands of public opinionand resource needs is an issue that is likely toexpand further in the future as climate changebecomes more of an established concern.

Main Issues

• Demand for climate resistant crops andbiological processes will increaseopportunities for market development.

• Health considerations, including increasedsolar radiation, heat effects and dehydrationwill provide potential market opportunities.

• Direct impacts upon business activitiesinclude dust and heat stress on operativesand equipment damage.

• Financial costs of insurance, resource useand investments will be affected byoperations in this sector and beyond.

• The provision of advice and consultancyservices to other business sectors willincrease as climate change becomes a moresubstantive issue across the business world.

Impacts upon other business sectors and naturaldomains will present the biotechnology sector withconsiderable challenges and opportunities asmore emphasis is put on resources to adapt toclimate change impacts.

A primary example is the development of resistantcrops to overcome increased drought and dampconditions. Species which resist increased pestnumbers will increase in importance as well othermodified natural processes.

Climate impacts upon health will be anotherpriority area for development, including enhancedsun screening, such as sun blocks, and productsto maintain hydration of humans duringparticularly hot periods.

Direct impacts upon operations withinbiotechnology companies will include healtheffects on staff working indoors and outdoors.

Instruments used in the field and in laboratoriesmay require increased protection from highertemperatures and dustier conditions.

Other impacts include increased costs of naturalresources and insurance costs, as well as globalinfluences upon biotechnology activities as aresult of climate change impacts in other areas.

The debate for GM work will re-open andmany more people may see the benefits

and moderate their opposition.

Biotechnology Company Adviser

In our biotech work, opportunities wouldcome from the physical effects such as

flooding.

Biotechnology Company Manager


The Way Forward

This sector has the potential to be at the forefrontin developing solutions to climate change impacts.Therefore, the phenomenon itself will be aconsiderable driver as impacts become moreapparent and research clarifies potentialchallenges. However, it will be the requirementsof other business sectors for specialist advice andresources which will be the main drivers indeveloping climate change related activities in thissector.

Potential Barriers

The primary barriers to change are likely to be thechallenges faced in developing geneticallymodified material and promoting acceptance ofthese throughout society, in particular within theU.K.

Scientific uncertainties within the field of climatechange research will also pose a barrier to somecompanies who require this information, but donot have the resources to develop it themselves.

Therefore, this sector will be amongst the mostresponsive to climate change knowledge as itbecomes more available.

Perceptions within the sector

Biotechnology businesses recognise the need toconsider the environment as a vital resource andtherefore acknowledge the need to adapt toclimate change. However, the nature of thesector means that opportunities for modification ofthe environment to accommodate climate changeexist.

Concern within the sector is on the acceptance ofall adaptation strategies by the public. Opportunitywill be provided but the solutions requiresignificant funding which takes time andresources, even with public and governmentsupport.

Knowledge and information base

To date there has been little specific research orinformation dissemination on climate changewithin this sector specifically. Research intoclimate change impacts on agriculture withparticular reference to drought conditions andother climatic phenomenon is relatively welldeveloped and many of the issues raised therewill be pertinent to businesses in this sector. Inaddition consideration of the health implications ofclimate change and response strategies whichmay include biotechnology will also benefit thissector - work on this is relatively advanced inmany areas.

Climate change is probably going to be alot quicker than useful evolutionary

changes. Biotechnology deals with livingthings, hence there will be a definableneed to artificially adapt living things

(foodstuffs, beneficial predators, livestocketc) to cope with any change. Society will

reject most of these ideas due to themedia’s portrayal of any genetic

modification as the stuff of science fiction.

Biotechnology Company.


Challenges and Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts in Biotechnology Domain



C More focus on plants’ genetic ability to resist extremes and possiblyincreased predator-attack, especially food-crops.

C Outside work; exposure to sun, dust, extreme heat and the subsequentunreliability of scientific instruments.

C Changes away from normal cooling methods towards air conditioning andother cooling methods, with associated increases in costs.

O The development of products and services to meet market needs (below)

O Develop new food supplements to cope with changes to peoples dailylives such as possible short-term dehydration.

O Develop crops and potentially livestock to resist heat stress

Develop superior sun-block systems

O Develop preventative measures to deal with stronger sun and relatedenhanced ageing effects and skin cancers

Summer Rainfall C A restriction on water intensive activities.

Reduced C Changes to the cost of water and water abstraction.

O Develop drought- resistant crops.

O Opportunities for genetic modification of crops ( e.g. Effects upon insectsrequired for pollination)


C Change current heating and ventilation systems within buildings toaccommodate warmer winters and to meet new building guidelines.

O A reduction in cold weather impacts on supplies, manufacturing processesand infrastructure.

O Positive impact upon energy costs and staff health.

O Opportunities for crops to be made more resistant to damp-relatedproblems and resistant to certain pests which may proliferate underdamper conditions.


C

C

Increased risk of flooding.

Impacts on infrastructure, particularly buildings.

C Development of crops resistant to wet weather and related pests.


C Direct and indirect impacts on infrastructure, markets and supplies, inparticular impacts on port facilities.

Longer Growing C Changes in demand for frost resistant crops.


C

O

Changes in demand for frost resistant crops

The potential for multiple-cropping and the development of new species toaccommodate the new growing conditions.

O Increased demand for consultative advice.


C Increased insurance costs and changes to planning regulations affectinginfrastructure development.

C Impacts upon crops and monitoring equipment.

O Provision of specialist advice and research into causes and effects of cropdamage and biological control of flooding.


C Increased direct and indirect impacts on infrastructure and supplies/markets.



ENVIRONMENTALTECHNOLOGIES DOMAIN

ScopeCommercial activities associated withenvironmental technologies, includingenvironmental engineering, resource efficientproducts, renewable energy products,environmental monitoring equipment, low carbontechnologies and related consultancies.

See Also

Water Resources, Built Environment,Biotechnology, ICT, Marine Engineering andActivities.

BackgroundThe South West has a considerable, and growing,reputation for developing technologies thatconserve and monitor the environment. The ideaof the region as the "Green Peninsula" is oftenreferred to and is well founded in its developmentof renewable energy in particular as well as manyother specialist techniques and technologies.

The level of renewable energy development hasgrown considerably with over 70 companies inCornwall alone involved directly with renewableenergy development, such as wind power, wavepower and thermal power.

In addition recent initiatives by the SWRDA topromote the development of environmentaltechnologies have included the EnviroSkills SWproject which aims to "provide an overall focus tosupport innovation in the EnvironmentalTechnology sector in the South West region, andas part of this, to help facilitate the SWRDA’sengagement with the sector businesses". Thisproject has included training needs analysis withinthe sector and a conference held in March 2002which drew together businesses, trainingproviders, policy makers and organisations tofurther develop the profile and training needs ofthis sector.

Subsequent initiatives to identify requirementswithin this sector and to further develop itsresources are ongoing at present. Theopportunities for this sector to develop over theshort to medium term have been identified andare being developed as issues surroundingenvironmental protection and monitoring becomemore prevalent. The potential for the South Westto be a leading force within this sector on anational and international scale is substantial.

Key IssuesThis business sector will incur the same directand indirect impacts upon its activities as othersectors, including flooding of premises, healtheffects on staff, and disruption to supply lines.

There are however, several issues specific to theenvironmental technologies sector, including:

• Significant opportunities exist for companiesto develop techniques and technologies tomonitor and mitigate the risks that climatechange may bring - "climate proof" productsand services.

• Renewable energy technologies provideopportunities for providing localisedsustainable power generation options,reducing energy costs and the vulnerability oftransporting power.

• Increased demand from other businesssectors and organisations for consultancyservices related to managing climate impacts.

• Increased sales of resource efficienttechnologies, pollution monitoring and otherrelated equipment.

• Direct and indirect impacts uponinfrastructure, business activities and supplylines.

• Increased resource costs, including fossil fuelbased materials, and increased businesscosts.

• Increased need for climate impact andclimate change consultancy.

• There is potential for expansion in therenewable energy, environmental consultantand related services sector as a result of theimpacts of climate changes on otherbusinesses and activities

"We have already had to move ourserver room to the second floorbecause of the flood risk. Ourinsurance company would onlyprovide cover if we moved our

servers."

Casella Cel Ltd.

"The mitigation option is where ourbusiness growth is!"

Renewable Energy Consultant.


The Way ForwardThe need to continually monitor and attempt tomanage the impacts of human activities on theenvironment has lead to a boom within theenvironmental technologies sector. The view thatmankind can develop solutions to climate changein the form of "climate proof" and "clean"technologies has the potential to be a majordriving force behind the development ofenvironmental technologies.

The occurrence of the second "Earth Summit" in2002 further highlighted environmental technologydevelopment issues as a response to climatechange and more generalised sustainabledevelopment issues.

The importance of the natural environment withinthe South West region as a resource for tourism,energy generation and general economicdevelopment has long been recognised.Maintaining this natural environment is of vitalimportance to the socio-economic development ofthe region and in many cases this job will fall tobusinesses within the environmental technologiessector.

This sector is in a position to benefit from theneed requirements of other businesses in terms ofdeveloping technologies and techniques to bothmitigate and adapt to climate change. Theseinclude the ongoing development of renewableenergies and low carbon technologies, as well asflood risk assessment tools, pollution monitoringtechnologies, and water supply managementproducts.

Many of the products and services that theenvironmental technologies sector may develop tomanage climate change are already beingdeveloped and applied in locations which aresusceptible to climate extremes today, such ascoastal areas susceptible to flooding. As a resultthese susceptible areas can be used as test bedsfor much of the products and services which maybe required on a larger scale as a result of climatechange.

When new products and services are beingdeveloped to manage, mitigate and monitorclimate change, it is important that the impacts ofclimate change on these products and servicesthemselves be considered. Impacts such ashigher temperatures, wetter weather, andincreased dust production may have significantdetrimental effects on equipment and operators.

Potential increases in storminess and higher sealevels may also pose considerable problems tothe development of shoreline or off-shoreprojects, such as off-shore wind farms or tidalbarrages. As a result climate proofing of futureproducts and services is essential.

Increases in business and insurance costs mayaffect future development of renewable energyprojects and other infrastructure. However, thepotential for this sector to develop climateproofing technologies, monitoring techniques andconsultancy expertise related to climate change

should result in it being at the forefront ofproducing low-risk developments.

Mechanisms for changeMany of the businesses involved in this sectorwithin the region are conscious of climate changeas an important issue and an importantopportunity.

This being said, environmental technologies mustreact to customer demand. In terms of low-carbon technologies and resource efficientproducts this is already well established, andgovernment initiatives to encourage their use aregrowing the sector further.

Climate change adaptation products and servicesare much less developed. However, existingmonitoring and management techniques for flooddefences and subsidence have created demandsfor products and services which can be applied towider climatic impacts as and when these becomemore prevalent.

Barriers to change

The underlying barrier to climate change relateddevelopment is the slow up-take in products andservices by many business outside of this sector,i.e. the customers.

The size and financial status of many businessesin this sector mean that ideas may not be fullydeveloped to the delivery point without outsidefinancial input and an established market.

A significant barrier may therefore be the limitedability of smaller companies, which dominate thissector, to attract substantial investment frombanks which have yet to consider climate change,or are reluctant to lend to smaller companies.

Key Drivers

The primary driver within the sector will bedemands from consumers who want products,

"We have adapted and are launching arange of low energy, long life ventilationproducts which go from domestic toilet

ventilators right through to industrial rooffans. The company sees this as a marketopportunity which local authorities, the

education sector and the hospitalityindustry are keen to take up in response

to Agenda 21, under the Governmentclimate change programme. Despite thispositive move towards sustainability the

company has not had any encouragementfrom Government”

Vent Axia Company


services and facilities that both mitigate andaccommodate climate change.

Environmental management and sustainabledevelopment practices are becoming, and willcontinue to become, more important within allbusiness sectors. This is a result of both publicdemand for sustainable services and governmentor European legislation to move towards moresustainable processes. In addition manybusiness have seen environment consideration asa marketable product and therefore have alteredtheir activities accordingly.

Smaller and newer businesses can be moreresponsive to the environment and within thissector they often have a personal desire to tackleclimate change and environmental issues. Withthe number of smaller businesses found in theregion, this bodes well for the future of thisbusiness sector in the South West.

Knowledge level within the sector

In addition to the recognised potential marketopportunities in developing techniques andtechnologies to assist clients to adapt to climatechange, environmental technologies companiesthemselves are frequently at the forefront ofconsidering their role within the naturalenvironment and potential impacts of climate ontheir practices. As a result they are advanced indeveloping sustainable business practices whichwill accommodate climate impacts.

The importance of the environment within theactivities of this sector is paramount. As a resultmany of those working in this sector are highlyknowledgeable about the issues involved andhave contributed considerably to the developmentof knowledge on climate change related issueswithin the region.

However, as with many other sectors specificknowledge of climate change impacts andadaptation varies across the sector. Thedissemination of climate change predictions andrelated knowledge in a relevant manner is animportant factor in developing this knowledgebase further. In addition the development of themost up to date and certain predictions of futureclimate is of importance to those businessesseeking to develop products and services to meetpotential increases in demand and to assist in thefinancing of such developments.

In some cases businesses within this sector willactually be developing knowledge relevant toclimate change impacts and adaptations. Thisknowledge is likely to be disseminated to otherbusinesses through consultancy services.


Challenges and Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts in EnvironmentalTechnologies Domain



C Changes away from normal cooling methods towards air conditioning andother cooling methods, with associated increases in costs.

C Operational difficulties for equipment under higher temperatures.

C Health impacts on staff of higher temperatures and increased pollution,particularly in urban areas and within offices.

O The development of energy efficient cooling methods to prevent increasedgreenhouse gases as a result of air conditioning increases.

O The development of detection equipment for changes in pollutants anddisease monitoring.


C Changes to supply and quality of water will impose restrictions on waterintensive activities, and changes to the cost and abstraction of water.

C An increased demand for new water efficient technologies such as cisterndams, urinal controls, tap restrictors and monitoring equipment. Especiallyfor intensive water users such as the agricultural, food and drink andmanufacturing sectors.

O Increased demand for water treatment and "grey water" technologies to:a) maximise the use of reduced precipitation levelsb) reduce loss through polluted water.c) combat increased levels of water pollution in higher temperatures.


C Change heating and ventilation systems within existing buildings toaccommodate warmer winters and to meet new building guidelines.

C Reduced market for frost monitoring equipment.

O The opportunity to meet market needs for changes in heating andventilation systems including heat recovery products.



C

C

Impacts on infrastructure, in particular buildings.

Impacts on health through damp conditions, mould and disease.

O The potential for new products to accommodate more humid conditions.

O New markets in consultancy and monitoring equipment for processessusceptible to wet weather.

Sea Level and Tides C Direct and indirect impacts on infrastructure, markets and supplies.

Increased O Increased demand for services and equipment to monitor, mitigate andadapt to sea-level rise, coastal erosion and related impacts, including geo-engineering opportunities.


C

O

Impacts on energy crops and related products/ markets.

New equipment / technologies in a more productive agricultural market.

O A reduction in frost damage to building, supply lines and other activities.

Flooding Increased C Increased insurance costs and changes to planning regulations affectinginfrastructure development.

C Direct infrastructure damage, and indirect impacts upon supplies/markets.

O An increased need for environmental engineers and consultants to monitorflood risks and products to monitor and warn of flood risks.

O Expanding markets for post-flood recovery, such as de-humidifiers.


C Increased direct and indirect impacts on infrastructure and supplies/markets leading to increased maintenance, repair and insurance costs.

O New markets related to “climate-proofing” buildings and infrastructure.


FINANCIAL SERVICES DOMAIN

ScopeCommercial activities operating within thefinancial services sector, including; banking,building societies and insurance providers.

See Also

Business, Public Health, Built Environment,Coastal Erosion and Flood Defence, Heritage,Transport, Utilities, and Leisure & Tourism.

BackgroundFinancial services within the South West areprimarily focused upon small to medium scalecustomer delivery points, be that through banks,building societies or insurance brokers. Arelatively small number of banking and insuranceinstitutions have larger offices in the region, andare predominantly based in Bristol, Gloucester,Swindon, and Exeter.

Financial services are one of the ten prioritysectors of the SWRDA, and consequently arelikely to be developed further in the future.

Leading financial organisations originating in theregion include Bristol and West, Cheltenham andGloucester (now part of Lloyds TSB Group) andStroud & Swindon Building Society.

The influence of the City of London and globalfinancial and insurance markets on this sector issubstantial. This reflects the fact that financialservices are substantially influenced by marketforces far beyond regional boundaries.

Specialist financial services exist within theregion, in particular ethical investments servicesand ethical/ green insurance services. Thisreflects the growing demand for these types ofproducts in the region and beyond, as well as theimportance that the environment plays within theeconomy of the region. Examples of this includeNatureSave Policies Ltd. and The EthicalInvestors Group.

When considering financial services it is importantto consider the interrelationship betweenorganisations and their customers. As financialcompanies are service providers, their liabilitiesand market opportunities will come about directlyas a result of changes in the position of theircustomers, competitors and regulators.Therefore, within this sector direct impacts onfinancial services will be considered as well asindirect impacts upon customers and the marketplace.

Key Issues• Global impacts of climate change, including

floods and tropical cyclones, will have an

impact on financial companies in the region,and subsequently upon their customers.

• Insurance companies are highly vulnerable tolarge losses as a result of changes in climaticvariables, in particular changes to the severityand spatial or temporal distribution ofwindstorms, drought conditions, and coastal/fluvial floods.

• Climate change introduces increaseduncertainty into a market place which alreadyhas uncertainties attached.

• Warmer winters will result in a reduction incold-weather related insurance claims.

• Banks and building societies will lose incomeas customers incur loses through climateimpacts, such as disruption to supply chains.

• Properties in high risk areas, primarily floodplains and along unstable coasts, could losevalue, become uninsurable or become un-saleable resulting in loses for lendinginstitutions.

• Increased investment opportunities exist inclimate change mitigation activities, includingemissions trading activities, RenewableObligations Certificates and low carbontechnologies.

• There is likely to be declining investment intraditional fossil fuel based industries.

• Health impacts upon staff and those insuredunder health insurance schemes is significant.

• The full range of climate change impacts on allsectors will be felt by the banks, in particularshort term impacts of extreme events.

The financial sector will be faced with a number ofchallenges and opportunities which primarilyreflect the impacts of climate change on theircustomers and new markets for products andservices.

Insurance companies are likely to incur increasedlosses primarily as a result of the followingimpacts:

• Subsidence as a result of shrinkage of claysoils due to drying. This will primarily occurin the west and South West of the region

"Recent history has shown that weatherrelated losses can stress insurancecompanies to the point of impaired

profitability, consumer price increases,withdrawal of coverage, and elevated

demand for publicly fundedcompensation and relief."

IPCC, 2001


where Tertiary, Cretaceous and Jurassicclays are prevalent.

• Windstorms which damage infrastructure,particularly when accompanied by heavyrainfall, as may be the case for winters in thefuture.

• Flooding, both fluvial and coastal, hasresulted in substantial losses in the past.Developments in floodplains exacerbates thisissue. Currently, approximately 7 millionpeople across the UK are at risk from riverflooding alone, and this level is likely toincrease as new developments take place(CII, 2001).

• Existing levels of claims for burst water pipesand other infrastructure damage resultingfrom freezing conditions may well decline asa result of warmer winters. However, if morewinter holidays are taken and house are leftunheated then pipe bursts may well occur(Palutikof, 1998).

Additional impacts upon insurance companies willinclude changes to claims for health and lifeinsurance as a consequence of changing climaticconditions. In addition vehicle and travelinsurance will be an increasing market, but lossesin these categories may occur as a result ofclimate change, including increased car accidentsin fine weather and outdoor activity accidents.

It is important to note that whilst for domesticinsurance, claims reflect simply direct damageand loss, for commercial activities claims mayalso be made for lost income and business. Thissecondary factor means that businesses canmake insurance claims for impacts upon theirsupply lines and other factors, as well as directimpacts upon the facilities they operate.

Recent insurance policies have allowed forpayments to be made if non-physical impacts takeplace, such as events disrupted as a result of theclimate (CII, 2001). This is both a response tobusinesses needs to avoid large losses, and anopportunity for insurance companies to expandtheir natural hazards service portfolio. Anyincreases in extreme events as a result of climatechange may reduce companies’ ability to maintainsome of these services across the board, and/orincrease premiums for businesses, which have aconsequent effect on other financial services.

Financial services are very dependent upon levelsof business activity in the region and as a resultincreased insurance losses and costs tobusinesses will affect the wider financial servicessector through decreased loans and otherservices. In addition perceived risks of climateimpacts in certain geographical areas oreconomic sectors may result in reducedinvestment in those areas. This is a particularconcern for agricultural activities and in coastalregions (UKCCIRG, 1996). Therefore, financialservices companies will incur differing levels ofimpact dependent upon their investment portfolio.The issue will also affect mergers and acquisitionspolicies as some companies are seen as winnersand others losers. (ERM, 2000).

Lending risks as a result of climate change can becategorised as:

• Regulatory risks, including the introduction oflegislation and financial instruments bygovernments or agencies.

• Short term risks as a result of rapid eventssuch as storms.

• Long term risks as a result of long-termchanges such as sea level rise.

• Reputational risks with banks makingdecisions and taking actions on investments.

It is likely that banking institutions will pass theserisks on to insurers and re-insurers to minimisenegative impacts.

Of particular concern is the level of inwardinvestment into the region which plays a vital rolein the region’s economy. Any changes toinvestment levels will have consequences for allsectors in the South West. It is important to notethat risk assessments and investment decisionswill be influenced by global market conditionsmade by international companies.

Direct impacts upon business activities will be feltby the financial sector through impacts on workingconditions, including office heating, health effects,and disruption to activities, particularly breakdownin communications which play a leading role in thefast moving financial markets (UKCCIRG, 1996).

Developments within the field of climate changemitigation and adaptation tools will result inchanges in investments for financial institutions.Low carbon technologies and renewable energieswill be an expanding market. In addition carbontrading schemes to reduce greenhouse gas levelsare coming on stream and are becoming animportant financial opportunity. In comparison,perceived "losers" in the low-carbon revolution willbecome less attractive as investment

There is a significant correlationbetween summer rainfall and

subsidence claims.

Palutikof, 1999Currently £450 million is paid outannually in subsidence claims in the

U.K. alone.

ERM, 2000


opportunities, including fossil fuel based energysupplies, as new legislation and costs come onstream. However, the development andimplementation of financial regulations andlegislation will provide further opportunities forfinancial organisations specialising in suchservices.

The Way ForwardRecent extreme climatic events in the South Westregion, in particular the large-scale flooding in thewinter of 2000 and the storms of the late 1980'sand early 1990's, have resulted in increasedinsurance claims for natural hazards. Globallyinsured losses have increased over ten fold sincethe 1950's to approximately $40 billion per year inthe 1990's (IPCC, 2001).

This reflects two principles evident within theinsurance sector, and with consequent impactsupon all financial transactions. Insurance lossesresult primarily from extreme events affectinginsured properties, and unlike most developednations the U.K. currently offers insurance forflood risk as standard as well as other insuredrisks, such as subsidence and storm damage.

However, recent steps by insurance companies toreduce their risks in flood prone areas mean thatsome properties may soon become difficult toinsure and therefore to sell. This will ultimatelyimpact upon other financial services such asmortgage lending as well as influence planningconsiderations and government policy. In manyEuropean countries flood insurance is supportedby the state, and this may need to be the case inthe South West in the future.

Insured losses and impacts upon financialinvestments are influenced by wealth, propertyprices and other economic indicators within theregion and beyond. Domestic Insurance claimsare very dependent upon house prices and costsof contents as much as the level of impactthemselves. Consequently, loss comparisonsover medium to long time-scale involve more thanjust climate as a variable (Palutikof, 1999). Inaddition adverse market conditions and other non-climatic factors will influence insurance losses andfinancial investments, including economic downturns and international terrorism (IPCC, 2001).

However, standardised historical tends ininsurance claims have shown increases duringdrought periods, related to subsidence, such as in1989, and related to windstorms, flooding andcold weather (Palutikof, 1999). This historicaldata can be used as an indication of futureimpacts, although other factors need to beconsidered.

The financial sector in general focuses on shortterm changes and discounts long-term futurecosts, whilst remaining relatively quick to react tomarket changes.

Risk avoidance on investments and insurancedecisions are the main drivers behind

accommodating climate change. The potential forunsustainable loses is large and must becountered by either:

1. Changes to pricing, which is difficult toimplement, may be uncompetitive andrequires definitive information about futurerisks.

2. Risk transfer through such things as weatherderivatives are a developing area to spreadinsurance risks.

3. Limiting the availability of insurance wouldreduce risks, but have considerableconsequences for consumers.

4. Loss control activities through the utilisationof the industry’s extensive resources.

(Parry, 2000)

Due to the global nature of the industry, driversmay well come from other parts of the globe whoare more susceptible to climate change relatedlosses. Therefore, drivers affecting climatechange policies in the South West may originatefrom well beyond the region.

Regulatory decisions by governments orinternational bodies will be drivers behind issuessuch as floodplain insurance, which in manycountries is unavailable or provided by the state.In addition, changes to financial, and other relatedregulations associated with climate change willhave consequent impacts upon financial services.These changes may take place on a national orinternational scale.

Potential barriers

Risk assessment models within the financialservices sector are highly developed and requireadvanced data input. Of particular importance is aneed for further information on extreme eventsand wind storms and models to track theinterrelationships between climatic conditions andflooding/drought conditions.


Adapting to climate impacts and avoiding risks isinherent to this sector. Therefore,accommodating climate change risks will become

“This sector is a key agent of adaptation(e.g. through support of building codes,

and to a lesser extent, land useplanning) and financial services

represent risk spreading mechanismsthrough which the costs of weather

related events are distributed amongother sectors and throughout society"

IPCC, 2001


a part of all investment and insuranceconsiderations.

This sector is the driving force behind decisionsmade in many other sectors, in particularbusinesses, and due to the long term nature ofinvestments in projects, such as dams andreservoirs, climate change adaptation is a majorconsideration. In effect this sector willsubstantially influence all other climate changeadaptation policies on a global scale.

This sector, largely through insurance companyactivity, is responsible for promoting and funding alarge amount of climate change related research.Dissemination of this knowledge has beenfacilitated through trade organisations such as theChartered Insurance Institute, and interaction withrisk assessment modellers. A survey by the CIIfound that 40% of insurers believed the homemarket would be influenced by climate changeover the next 10 years. This shows anunprecedented level of concern for climatechange impacts, with 89% of insurers questionedhaving at least a working knowledge of the issue(CII, 2001).

However, knowledge levels within smaller andSouth West based businesses in the field ofadapting to climate change may need furtherdevelopment as the science develops further.

Further investigations into the impacts of climaticand other parameters as well as the vulnerabilityof certain activities and investments are requiredwithin this sector.

The large potential costs involved in climatechange impacts means that this knowledgedevelopment work will be a focus of future climateimpact studies and a driving force behindinformation development.


Challenges and Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts in Financial Services Domain



C Increased disruption of businesses activities, such as crop losses, andrelated insurance claims.

C Increased health and life insurance claims due to strokes, heart attacks,food poisoning and heat stress.

C Direct impacts upon offices and working conditions.

C Increased leisure activities resulting in greater levels of accident claims.

O Greater opportunities for investment in solar based renewable energies.

O Increased demands for mortgages on holiday properties and tourismbusinesses in the region.

O Increased economic activity in the region due to increased tourism andbusinesses opportunities


C Increased insurance claims due to increased subsidence and landslides.

C Increased costs of fires, including wild fires, and related insuranceclaims.

C Agricultural losses and increased costs due to drought conditions andrelated insurance costs.

C Increased water costs for businesses, and related impacts uponfinancial performance and investments.

O Investment opportunities in "subsidence proofing" buildings.

O Investment opportunities and growth in water efficient technologies.


C Lower sales for energy companies affecting investments.

O A decline in claims for freezing pipes and related cold weather impacts.

O Expansion of winter tourism industry resulting in increased demand forfinancial services.


C Increased business disruption and insurance claims, including buildingand property/stock damage.

Increased Sea Leveland tides

C Impacts upon coastal infrastructure resulting in investment losses andinsurance claims.

C Increased marine and off-shore impacts and related investment /insurance losses.

O Investment opportunities in coastal defence technologies.


O

O

Reduced frost related insurance claims, eg crop losses, traffic accidents

Increased economic activity and investment opportunities in agriculture

Increased Flooding C Higher costs of insurance claims and related impacts upon economicactivity and investments, through damage and disruptions.

C Perceived risks of flooding in certain areas.

C Changes to flood risk cover for at risk properties.

C Impacts upon mortgages and property investments for at risk properties,and new developments on flood plains.

O Potential for development of flood specific insurance business.


C Increased insurance costs of windstorms, such as in the 1987 storm,impacts on transport, infrastructure and business activities.

C Investment impacts as a result of storm impacts upon businesses.

O New market investment opportunities in weather prediction, risk


assessment and impact protection markets.


FOOD AND DRINK DOMAIN

ScopeCommercial activities associated with theproduction, distribution and sale of food and drink.

See Also

Marine Fisheries, Agriculture, Health, WaterResources

BackgroundThe comparatively high levels of agricultural andfishing activity within the South West has led tothe establishment of a significant food and drinkprocessing and packaging industry within theregion. In addition the large number of visitors tothe region and the global reputation of localproduce, such as Cornish Pasties, has resulted incompanies trading in food and drinks within theregion and exporting further afield.

This sector is one of the SWRDA's priority sectorswith a dedicated sector co-ordinator. A recentsurvey of companies involved in food and drinkreport on over 3000 different establishments inthe region. Activities undertaken included mailorder, farm shops, hamper providers,delicatessens and farmers’ markets as well aspackagers and producers of a range of food anddrink.

Key Issues• Cooling methods need to be enhanced to

avoid damage to produce and reducebacterial build-up.

• Potential increases in food poisoning need tobe accommodated to avoid increased legalchallenges and business losses.

• Changes to food and drink consumptionpatterns, including ice creams and colddrinks.

• Increased visitor numbers will result in alarger regional market for food and drink, inparticular local specialities.

• Changes to crop and animal production as aresult of changed climatic parameters,including changes to fish spawning and heatstress on animals.

• New product opportunities as a result ofchanges to traditional crops and species,such as increased wine production.

• Marketing opportunities exist for locallyproduced food and drink which is seen assafer and more environmentally friendly as itlimits transportation - "food miles".

Context

Recent issues surrounding food safety and animalhealth have lead to local demand for sustainablefood production on a local scale. As a resultniche markets have developed, most prominentamong these being organic produce.

Changes to consumer tastes and the availabilityof fresh produce from all around the globe haveresulted in changes to markets for food and drink.Warmer weather is likely to enhance this situationwithin the region and encourage a move awayfrom some traditional produce.

It is important to note that issues such as over-fishing and other non-climatic variables could bemore influential in affecting supplies of producethan climate change itself, although climatechange will place an additional burden on manystretched resources.

The cultural changes which will take place as aresult of warmer summers and winters may havethe greatest influence upon customer demands,which underpin this industrial sector. New andexpanding products like ice cream and wine willoffset changes away from some traditionalproduce. Furthermore, the increased influx ofvisitors to the region, in particular those fromoverseas who may be looking for a warmer regionwhich is not as hot as other areas, will result inchanges to food and drink demands. However,visitor demand for local specialities may also seea rise in this area of the sector.

Changes to the supply of natural ingredients forproducts, such as changes to fish species andcrops, will fundamentally alter the costs involvedin their production and ultimately availability ofraw materials. New species will lead to newmarket opportunities in some produce.

Processing techniques and manufacturingprocesses will be affected by increasestemperatures in particular which result inincreased coolant demands. Reductions insummer water supply will place strain on drinkproducers in particular.

Health risks to workers within the sector as wellas consumers are a significant challenge to thissector. In particular is the need to preventincreased food poisoning as a result of highertemperatures and related bacterial growth.Potential legal consequences of this could beconsiderable.

The Way ForwardChanges in consumer demands towards newand/or sustainable, locally produced products willbe a considerable driver. In addition concernabout specific species and production processesby consumers will result in moves away fromsome products and encourage changes to newproducts.

Policies and activities to accommodate climatechange are unlikely to be developed on their own,


but will be accommodated within the need todevelop sustainable activities and reducegreenhouse gas emissions.

The provision of locally produced and/or organicfoods will result in changes towards moresustainable manufacturing processes which maybe a driving force to adapt to climate change. Inaddition locally produced produce will reducetransport related greenhouse gas emissions.

Initiatives to increase environmental protectionand encourage sustainable farming and fishingpractices will also have consequences for foodand drink manufacture and reduce thevulnerability of suppliers to climate change.

A significant driver towards adapting to climatechange will be financial and insurance costswhich will impact upon business expansion andsite development. Additional regulatory andfinancial instruments as a result of governmentaction will influence this business sector.

Potential Barriers

Few, if any, businesses within this sector haveconsidered this issue to a great degree. This lackof knowledge and the long-term uncertain natureof the issue which could act as major barrier tochange.

In addition the small scale of many businessesinvolved in food and drink production anddistribution means that resources and planninghorizons do not accommodate issues such asclimate change.


Businesses in this sector recognise the need toconsider the environment as a vital resource. Inaddition they recognise the value of increasedvisitor numbers and the restrictions of an over-stretched transport infrastructure on theirbusiness activities.

However, policies to adapt to climate changespecifically are seen as the primary responsibilityof government and regional agencies, and areoften considered to be beyond the resources ofbusinesses themselves.

To date there has been little research orinformation dissemination within this sector.Research into climate change impacts onagriculture and fisheries is comparatively welldeveloped and many of the issues raised therewill be pertinent to businesses in this sector.

Best Practice in the Industry

The Bath Breakfast where all the food onyour plate is produced within a short

distance of Bath, has acted as aconsiderably successful marketing tool

and highlighted locally producedinitiatives.


Challenges and Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts in Food and Drink Domain



C Changes away from normal cooling methods towards air conditioningand other cooling methods, with associated increases in costs.

C Increased bacterial build-up in foods leading to higher rates of foodpoisoning and related litigation matters.

C Health impacts upon staff who work both inside and outside.

C Transport of fresh produce may become difficult or more costly due toextra refrigeration requirements.

C Loss of traditional species of animal and crops.

C Some traditional food types may become less popular in warmerweather (e.g. Cornish pasties).

O The potential to develop tourist market as visitors to the region increase.

O New techniques and processes in response to changes in conditionsand markets.

O The availability of new crops and species within the region, thusreducing import costs and developing new products, eg wine production.

O Increased consumption of warm weather food and drinks, such as icecream, leading to new markets.


C Changes to the cost of water and supply levels, particularly important indrink manufacturing.

C Difficulty in storage of short shelf life fish in higher ambient temperatureresulting in increased operating costs.

O Increased levels of tourism and so expanding markets within the region.

O Dietary changes to lighter meal consumption such as fish.


C The need to change current heating and ventilation systems in buildingsto accommodate warmer winters and meet new building guidelines.

O Changes in food consumption patterns resulting in changes to demandfor certain products and new/ expanding markets for other products.

O A reduction in cold weather impacts on supplies, manufacturingprocesses and infrastructure.



C

O

Impacts on infrastructure, in particular buildings, and transportation.

Increased visitor numbers to indoor based food and drink attractions.

Increased Sea Leveland tides



C

O

Greater input into longer crop production cycle, offset by higher returns.

Potential for more crops to be supplied and less crop loss in the winter.

O Potential for new crops and associated industries – e.g. wine productioncould become a large South West concern.




C Increased direct and indirect impacts on infrastructure andsupplies/markets a major factor in continuity of supply during wintermonths when most successful fishing opportunities are available.



INFORMATION ANDCOMMUNICATIONTECHNOLOGIES (ICT) DOMAIN

ScopeCommercial activities with the design,manufacture, distribution and support forhardware and software aspects of computers,telephones and related peripheral equipment.

See Also

Advanced Engineering, EnvironmentalTechnology, Built Environment, Utilities andTransport.

BaselineThis sector has seen massive expansion in recentyears and has developed into a significant newarea of economic development within the SouthWest. Large international companies, such asTelewest Broadband, have located within theregion and have lead to further development ofsmaller companies dealing with such things asweb design, software development andequipment production.

Despite recent changes within this sector with theend of the dot.com and mobile phone boom, theskills and facilities which have developed withinthe region means that this sector remains animportant contributor to the region’s economy,and will further expand as technologies develop.

Key Issues• Changes to health risks to workers inside, in

particular those using electronic equipment.

• Impacts upon infrastructure, in particularcommunications masts and overhead cables.

• Potential increased energy costs due tocarbon taxation methods and infrastructuredamage.

• Increased levels of down time as a result ofloss of energy supplies andtelecommunications during periods of extremeclimate impacts.

•

• Technologies associated with mitigating andadapting to climate change, for examplemonitoring building temperatures and floodrisks, will be an increased market.

• On-line technologies will reduce thevulnerability of activities to climate impactsupon transportation links, such as coastalrailways.

• Global climate modelling and risk modellingrequires ongoing development in software andcomputer technologies.

The ICT sector has the potential to provide manyof the technologies and solutions which will helpto predict, accommodate and develop under achanging climate. This includes the software andtechnologies needed to run the global circulationmodels which produce the UKCIP02 scenarios aswell as communication systems which reducereliability upon transportation links which may beat risk from climate impacts. In addition there isscope for software and technologies to monitorflood levels, manage crops, and controltemperatures in buildings.

The sector will be vulnerable to climate impactsthrough infrastructure damage. In particularthreats to communications masts and overheadwires as well as other facilities such asmanufacturing plants in coastal regions.

Changes to working and leisure time activities,including increased home working, anddevelopments of on-line working and leisurefacilities, will result from changes to the climate aswell as other pressures. A proposal for aninteractive website which provides touristattraction details dependent upon weatherconditions has been put forward, and signifies theimportance of this sector in providing solutions tochanges in other sectors.

A further important role for this sector, which mayalso be a niche market for some companies, is inthe education and delivery of information to thepublic and other businesses on climate change.This could be in the form of visualised climatechange scenarios and risk assessments forindividual business activities.

The Way ForwardAs with many economic sectors, ICT will respondto a combination of customer demand, riskavoidance, increasing costs, and governmentlegislation. However, ICT is a very innovativesector of the economy and is in a position tobenefit from impacts in other sectors.

Threats to infrastructure, and in particularplanning regulations and insurance costs forstructures such as telecom masts will forcebusinesses to consider future climatic conditionswhen planning new developments. However,other planning issues such as the health effects ofcommunication infrastructure will continue to playa large role in planning considerations.

Key drivers will include demands for technologieswhich predict and monitor climate impacts, andrisk assessments in many sectors from agricultureto flood controls.

Changes in energy supply costs, and possibledisruption to supplies as a result of climateimpacts, will be of significant importance to thisenergy dependent sector. Government legislationand incentives to reduce dependency upon fossilfuel energy supplies may result in opportunitiesfor on-site renewable energy supplies and energyefficient practices and technologies.


Potential Barriers

While uncertainties within the climate changedebate pose a considerable barrier to change, it isthe inertia within other industrial sectors who arethe customers of ICT businesses that pose thelargest barrier. The ICT sector itself is relativelyresponsive to new markets and economicchanges and as a result will change when amarket becomes significantly developed. Currenteconomic conditions within the sector and otherinfluences on this sector may result in limitedchange in the short term.

Knowledge Base

Little research has been done within this sector,and as a result knowledge levels and engagementwith businesses has been limited. It is unlikelythat adaptation strategies have begun or that theissue is seen to be of importance to many of thebusinesses in this sector. Considerations ofeconomic stability and future expansion arepriorities in the short–term. Climate change doesnot figure within the timeframes used or in thelong-term planning for the majority of businesses.


Challenges and Opportunities from Key Climate Impacts in Information andCommunication Technologies Domain



C Increased need for cooling equipment and buildings with consequentincreases in costs.

C Health impacts upon staff who work inside and with electronic equipment.

O The development of technology and software to monitor buildingtemperature and other software needs.


C The need to change current heating and ventilation systems withinbuildings to accommodate warmer winters and to meet new buildingguidelines.

O Beneficial impacts on supplies, manufacturing processes andinfrastructure.


Flooding Increased C Infrastructure damage, and impacts upon supplies and markets.


O New technologies/ software to monitor and manage flood risk areas.


C

O

Non-identified.

Potential for on-line data on water management.

O New technologies/ software to regulate water supply.


C

O

Impacts on infrastructure, in particular buildings and cabling.

Non-identified.



O New technologies/ software and on-line data to monitor sea-level rise

O Impacts on transport infrastructure could result in more activities beingundertaken interactively and to avoid excessive travel.


C

O

Non-identified.

New technologies/ software in crop monitoring and management.


C

C

Increased direct/indirect impacts on infrastructure and supplies/ markets.

Impacts upon overhead cables and communication infrastructure.


O A reduction in travel resulting in more electronic communications.


TOURISM AND LEISURE DOMAIN

ScopeThe provision of tourism accommodation,attractions, activities, food and drink retail outlets(including urban, rural and coastal) andrecreational, leisure and sports facilities.

See Also

Rivers, Forestry, Agriculture, Fisheries, Coastal,Heritage, Transport, Built Environment, Health,Food and Drink.

BackgroundTourism plays a vital role within the South West'seconomy, with over 20 million visitors in 2000,spending over £3.6 billion within the region. Inaddition a total of 131.5 million day trips weretaken to the region in 1998. The value to theeconomy of the South West can be estimated tobe in the region of £5,000 per household inDevon and Cornwall. Tourism supports about225,000 jobs within 11,000 businesses in theSouth West. Within the region there isapproximately 10,000 establishments withaccommodation for over 600,000 visitors, 80% ofwhom travel to the region by car.

This level of visitors makes the South West themost popular destination for domestic tourists,with 16% of domestic tourist trips in Englandbeing to the South West. The region attracts alower number of international visitors,accommodating 8% of the visitors to England.

Within the region there are five specificexperiences which visitors come to enjoy:

• Cities and Spa Towns

• Coasts

• Resorts

• The Countryside

• National Parks and Open Spaces

Of these 75% of visitors are attracted by theculture and environment of the region. There isalso a series of niche markets, which includehealth tourism and spiritual tourism.

Environment based tourist attractions arebecoming increasingly popular within the regionand include the very successful Eden Project andattractions such as the Gaia Energy Centre. The

managed use of the environment as a touristattraction highlights its value to the region.

Key Issues• Any increase in tourism must be managed to

avoid damage to the South West’s mostvaluable asset – the environment.

• Sea level rise and flooding threateningcoastal and riverside installations.

• Health implications of increased heat stress,food poisoning and UV exposure.

• Increased pressures on services and utilitiesdue to greater visitor numbers and climateimpacts on infrastructure.

• Increased visitor and climate relatedpressures on natural environment attractions.

• Potential to exacerbate current peaks indemand in an industry already heavilyinfluenced by seasonality.

• Opportunities for diversification, new marketsand job creation.

• A longer, more reliable summer season and awarmer winter, thus extending the touristseason.

• Increased opportunities for outdoor recreationand warm weather services.

• Opportunities for increased prestige andmarketing based upon "green" tourism.

• An increase in extreme weather, includingincreased heat-waves, in other tourismmarkets, such as the Mediterranean, resultingin less overseas travel and an increase indomestic tourism.

The region needs to develop theinfrastructure to allow for greater

outdoor activities... everything from cafeterraces to showers on beaches.

SW Tourism

69% of links golf clubs say their courseis facing serious threat from erosionand/or flooding in the next 50 years.

CII, 2001

An opportunity to market "stormtourism" - short breaks to experience

nature at the extreme.

Malcolm Bell, SW Tourism

Climate is a primary motivating factor thatis taken into account, particularly in

relation to longer holidays, when decidinglocation and timing.

Acacia Report, 2000.


• Increased travel costs as airline fuel isincorporated within a carbon taxation schemecould increase visitors from within the UK,whilst also discourage overseas visitors.Additional increases in domestic travel costscould similarly reduce long distance travelwithin the UK.

Climate change impacts and adaptation strategieswithin the tourism and leisure sector need to bebuilt into the existing primary issues which exist inthis sector, in particular:

• The wider debate on sustainabledevelopment and how tourism can bedeveloped in a sustainable nature.

• Increased efficient use of resources andenvironmental considerations - thereforedeveloping "green tourism".

• Increasing public transport services andreducing the dependency of visitors on thecar.

• Developing tourist and leisure services toprovide a higher level of service forcustomers.

• Undergoing a cultural change to developmore Mediterranean style services andfacilities to attract overseas visitors and meetthe higher expectations of domestic visitors.

• Overall a desire to increase quality and valuefor money throughout the sector in the region.

• The recent crises in the farming industry anddeclines in traditional rural activities meanthat tourism now underpins many ruraleconomies in the region. However, theincreased purchase of holiday homes in ruralareas has lead to higher property prices andassociated problems for residents.

• Taxation on fuel and energy is an issue whichaffects both the development of leisurefacilities and the costs incurred by visitors fortravel.

Managing Development

Tourism and the use of leisure facilities is set tobenefit from climate change as the climatebecomes warmer and drier in the summer and

warmer in the winter. Consequently, the touristseason should extend beyond its traditionalboundaries and develop further in the wintermonths.

In addition the use of outdoor leisure facilities,including sports grounds, gardens and naturalparks, and beaches will increase as temperaturesbecome warmer. This provides an expandingmarket for leisure based holidays, which alreadyaccount for 25% of U.K. holiday expenditure (CII,2001), such as golfing and fishing holidays in theregion which will provide higher income fromvisitors.

Whilst this increase in visitor numbers has thepotential to rapidly develop the sector, it isessential that this is done in a managed way. Theregion's facilities are currently very stretchedduring the tourist season, in particular thetransport infrastructure and popular visitordestinations. It is therefore essential to manageadaptation to climate change by trying to increasethe quality of the service provided to customersand thus increase visitor spend rather than justthe numbers of visitors.

Benefits and disadvantages of growth

Increasing visitor numbers during the wintermonths and in particular the "shoulder months" isa substantial opportunity as the climate becomeswarmer. This effectively allows visitor facilities toremain open for a longer season, and in somecases year round. This will have an additionalbenefit to the region as it will secure jobs in thesector and also mean that tourist specific servicesremain in operation for longer periods thusbenefiting local residents who are often left withlimited services during the "off season".

Visitor numbers to the region are likely to increasefrom both within the U.K. and overseas as touristdestinations in other areas become less desirableas a result of uncomfortable temperatures andother climate change impacts in the region.

Higher visitor numbers will have a positive effecton local economies, in particular in rural areas.Tourism will increasingly become the primaryincome stream for many in rural regions.

A likely increase in holiday homes will continue topush up house prices in rural areas and mayaffect living standards for local residents whocannot afford higher prices.

Accommodating climate impacts on infrastructureand facilities is viewed as being essential toensure that costs are kept down and that the

Since 1974 there has been a clearrelationship between July temperatures

and the number of domestic holidaytrips.

Agnew,1999

We see the greatest issue to be the lackof public engagement in the theme ofadaptation. This fails to provide the

right climate of support that would givepoliticians the will to address the

necessary changes to e.g. investmentsin infrastructure, overseas aid etc.

Eden Project


opportunity for all year round tourism is notreduced by storm impacts.

Adaptation is of particular importance to ensurethat the buying and selling of properties, whichcould be greatly influenced by insurance, financialcosts, and planning regulations, does not hindereconomic development.

The Way ForwardThe need for sustainability

Policies and activities to accommodate climatechange are unlikely to be developed on their own,but will be accommodated within the need todevelop sustainable tourism activities andenhance the region’s environmental resources.

The recognised need to manage the region’sinfrastructure to accommodate increasing visitornumbers will also act as a mechanisms forchange. The SWRDA and South West Tourismare both committed to developing sustainablepractices within the tourism industry.

The development of outdoor activities and leisureservices is a response to public demand foractivity based holidays and the "cafe culture"experienced overseas. New developments suchas the Falmouth Marina and increased activitieslike beach volleyball in Weymouth will move theindustry towards developing outdoor services andconsequently accommodating new opportunitieswhich climate change may present.

Additional drivers to change will be developing"Eco-tourism" activities which market the naturalenvironment and "green" practices to attractvisitors. In Scotland environmental tourismactivities have increased occupancy rates by20%, and the South West is aiming for a similarincrease.

Similarly the recognised value of the region’senvironment to its tourist industry will be a driverin protecting areas against climate changeimpacts, where economically possible. TheNational Trust predicts that 75% of visitors cometo the region because of its conservedlandscapes, and are advanced in assessingresponses to climate change. Similarly therecently created World Heritage Coastline furtheremphasises the unique attraction of theenvironment and ensures that its protection is atthe forefront of future policies. Indeed the EnglishTourism Council report that 75% of visitors wouldbe prepared to pay more to protect theenvironment.

The ability to market the region as a warmersunnier place will be the main climate relatedmechanism for change. It was the Victorians whofirst discovered the mild winters on the EnglishRiviera and who subsequently developed many ofthe region’s tourist centres. By promoting outdooractivities and regionally distinctive attractionsthere is great potential to develop a furtherrevolution in visitors and services in the region.Marketing new quality facilities will help to attract

visitors who may otherwise go overseas and whowant breaks outside of the summer season.

Potential barriers

The tourism sector is at the forefront inconsidering climate change within its future, as adirect result of the potential benefits that awarmer, sunnier season would provide. SouthWest Tourism are very active in issues related tosustainable development under which climatechange is of significant importance. However,individual practitioners themselves are limited intheir understanding and ability to consider climatechange.

This is a result of a lack of understanding of theissue, uncertainties surrounding the science ofclimate change, and the lack of clear messagesfrom the media and policy makers on adapting tothe opportunities and impacts. This reflects to adegree the unbalanced nature of many mediastories regarding the issue which fail to put acrossthe coherent message being developed bynational and international bodies, such as IPCCand UKCIP, and gives excessive credence tocontradictory, often unsupported, claims.

The underlying barrier to climate change relateddevelopment is the financial status of many of thebusinesses. This is a result of the fact that mostbusinesses involved in tourism in the region aresmall or even micro businesses with limitedresources. It is very difficult to engage with adisparate industry such as tourism, when manybusinesses are of a size where they might notconsider their own impacts and contributions to besignificant on a regional level.

In addition the influence of other issues upon themarket place means that the tourism sector isvulnerable to many changes and is in a limitedposition to address climate change. This washighlighted by the recent Foot and Mouth Diseaseepidemic which severely damaged the industry inthe region.

Knowledge levels

Businesses and organisations in the regionrecognise the need to consider the environmentas a vital resource for tourism and leisure. Over80% of businesses in southeast Cornwall wereconcerned about the state of the environment andits relationship on their business, yet only 29.4%of these businesses considered their own impacton the environment (Vernon, 2001).

The belief that climate change, and theenvironment in general, is an issue beyondindividual’s or business’s scope had beenreflected in discussions with service providers.Consequently, adaptation to climate change islikely to be re-active rather than proactive. This isalso a result of the financial considerations of theindustry and the fact that in common with othersectors, many tourism businesses plan on 2 to 5


year time horizons which do not fit with projectedclimate change scenarios.

A difficulty in securing funds to finance adaptationinitiatives as a result of the uncertainties in theprojections has also been identified as a majorissue for those who wish to be pro-active.

Where adaptation has been considered, issuesidentified have focused primarily on reducingdirect climate impacts and accommodatingincreased visitor numbers and related stresses, aswell as developing higher quality facilities foroutdoor activities.

To date there has been little research orinformation dissemination on the links betweentourism (on a global or local scale) and climatechange. Furthermore, there is no evidence thatclimate scenarios have been used by individualorganisations. This reflects the fact that very fewleisure and tourism businesses or organisationshave considered climate change beyond theimplementation of the Climate Change Levy,which has not had as substantial an impact as inother business sectors.

The knowledge base on environmental andsustainable development issues is more extensiveand understood within the sector, butconsideration of the issues by businesses needsfurther consideration. Effective sustainablepractices need to be put in place to preventsuperficial "green" activities being marketed.Transportation and energy efficiency are ofparticular importance, with many tourists visitingattractions by car, and these are dependent uponregional changes as well as individual businesspractices.

C-CLIF held a workshop on climate change andTourism on the 30th October 2001. This wasattended by over 40 businesses andorganisations. Information from the presentationand discussions at this workshop have been usedin this section.

Principal Drivers

The primary driver within the sector will bedemands from consumers who want services andfacilities that accommodate changes in the climateas well as increased expectations of qualityservices and environmental preservation.

Environmentally friendly and sustainable activitieswill become increasingly important within theregion to satisfy customer demand, as will be thedevelopment of a "cafe society" that allows forsimilar activities as in overseas resorts.

The fact that so many businesses have limitedresources means that direct economic benefits ofconsidering climate change will act as a key driverfor adaptation. This could be in the form ofgovernment incentives, and established, low-risk,business practices to benefit from climate change.

There is likely to be a small group of businesseswho will make the first steps in this issue, and atrickle-down effect once benefits have beenrecognised. There is a need here for tradeorganisations to provide assistance in reducingrisks on financial investments.

A further driver will be individual consideration ofthe climate change issue and the environment asa whole. Studies suggest that newer businessesas well as individuals with personal experiences ofsustainable practices and overseas cultures willmake some businesses adapt quicker.

Personal desire to tackle climate change andenvironmental issues will also make businessesmore innovative and willing to consider adaptation(Vernon,2001). This indicates that getting theclimate change message across in a forceful andcoherent manner will be a further key driver, andtherefore places the onus on scientists, agencies,

the media and NGO's to do this.Example of Best Practice

In South Hams there is a "Green TourismBusiness Scheme Award" for businesses

improving the efficient use of naturalresources and protecting the

environment.

The impacts on tourism (both global anddomestic) will be wide ranging, diverseand interrelated. To date there has notbeen much research on tourism (at aglobal and local scale) and climate

change. The effects, therefore, of thesechanges are hard to quantify.

Dr David Viner, Climatic Research Unit

The South West should unlock itsunrealised potential by developing itsinfrastructure to accommodate more

visitors and marketing its regionaldistinctiveness and natural environment...

the region needs to be proactive not re-active and market its green credentials.

The English Riviera Tourist Board.


Challenges and Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts in Tourism and LeisureDomain



C Need to adapt to increased heat in visitor facilities e.g. hotels.

C Visitor health impacts, including heat stress, heart attacks and strokes.

C Requirement for more outdoor activities and facilities, including waterparks, with associated increases in resource demands, including waterresources.

C Higher temperatures resulting in lower urban air quality.

C Effects on coastal water quality, including increases in algal blooms,jelly fish numbers and beach management.

C An increase in warm water algal blooms resulting in waterdiscolouration, thus affecting water based activities.

C Possible increased cases of food poisoning as higher temperaturesresult in higher levels of bacteria.

C Increased demand for water supplies and irrigation with droughtconditions becoming more frequent.

O Increased visitor numbers as summers become more reliable.

O Increased use of sporting facilities and visitors to sports events, inparticular water sports.

O Market opportunities as Mediterranean destinations become too hot.

O Greater demand for outdoor facilities, sporting facilities and warmweather goods and services e.g. Beach volleyball in Weymouth.

O Higher sea surface temperatures could extend the sea and inland waterbathing and recreation season and range of activities e.g. more surfersat Newquay.


C Potential limitation of water supplies and related costs.

C Drought effects on natural tourist attractions such as gardens.

C Lower flow levels in rivers may increase pollutant levels and thus reducetheir attractiveness to visitors and creating potential health problems.

O Less rainy days increasing outdoor and water based activities.

O Less rain for outdoor events e.g. Glastonbury Festival, sports events.

O Summers perceived to be more reliable, thus attracting more visitors.


C The need to change heating and ventilation systems to accommodatewarmer winters.

C Increased pests and vermin who survive the winters, having a negativeimpact on tourist perceptions as well as health.

O Increased winter visitor numbers and spend leading to a more yearround tourist season and "winter sun" holidays.

O Increased use of outdoor recreation and sporting facilities.

O Lower energy costs for facilities as a result of lower heating demands.

O Positive health effects on visitors and staff.

O Marketing opportunities of warmer winters.


C Infrastructure damage through increased intense precipitation.

C The saturation of grounds (e.g. sports facilities) resulting in increased


drainage impacts, management costs, and reduced usage.

C Reduction in visitors to outdoor attractions on rainy days e.g. footballmatches.



C Infrastructure damage, in particular coastal attractions, such as golfcourses.

C Impacts upon transport infrastructure, such as ports and coastaltransport links e.g. Dawlish Warren.

C The squeezing of beaches and coastal habits as well as increasedcoastal erosion around visitor sites such as along the Jurassic Coast.

C Increased pressure on coastal management and water quality resultingin increased costs.


O Lower costs in maintaining grounds and sports facilities, including underpitch heating.

Reduced Frosts O Reduced frost related accidents.

O A reduction in frost impacts on infrastructure.

O Changes to species within landscaping schemes in e.g. Caravan Parks.

O A longer visitor season for garden based attractions.

Flooding Increased C Direct flooding of accommodation and other infrastructure.

C Effects on insurance costs and planning regulations.

C Flooding results in bad publicity for areas thus deterring visitors.

C Water-logged gardens and sports facilities.


C

C

Impacts upon infrastructure and transport links.

Roofs and other structures vulnerable to structural damage allvulnerable in exposed locations

C Damage to caravan sites and other vulnerable installations.

C Increased pressure on indoor attractions.

O Greater storminess brings more fossils out of the rocks at places suchas Lyme Regis, Charmouth.


MARINE ENGINEERING ANDMARINE ACTIVITIES DOMAIN

ScopeCommercial activities operating within the marineenvironment, including offshore, nearshore andcoastal activities.

See Also

Advanced Engineering, ICT, EnvironmentalTechnology, Coastal Erosion and FloodDefences, Built Environment, Utilities, Transport.

BackgroundTraditionally this sector has been dominated bylarge-scale ship building or refitting. This stillcontinues in a very much smaller scale, includingthe development of naval ships in DevonportDockyard. However, this business sector is nowcomprised primarily of small and medium sizedcompanies operating in a number of areas acrossthe region.

Specific activities of note include the developmentof leisure craft, such as yachts, which is anexpanding market. In addition offshoreinfrastructure development, with particular focuson renewable energies, is a new and expandingmarket for companies in the region.

The South West has a traditional maritime base,and its decline over recent decades has promptedconsiderable investment by the SWRDA amongstothers. This includes subsidies, training schemesand support for new technologies within the sectorto build up its competitiveness in the region.

As a result marine engineering remains animportant employer and contributor to the regionaleconomy, although it is primarily in smaller scaleniche markets.

Key Issues• Changes to manufacturing processes may be

required to accommodate increased internaland external heat.

• Opportunities to develop engineering solutionsto climate change impacts in coastal zones.

• Changes to health risks to workers usinginside and outside facilities.

• There are likely to be acute impacts uponinfrastructure, particularly coastal basedfacilities and supply lines, and also oncustomers.

• Increased costs as a result of restricted watersupplies and changes to energy costs.

• Increased levels of down time as a result ofloss of energy supplies and

telecommunications during periods of extremeclimate impacts.

• Opportunities to design new coastal andoffshore technologies to accommodatechanges in sea levels and storm surges. Thismay include flood defence products andoffshore installations.

• Opportunities exist to develop offshore andcoastal based renewable energies, such asoff-shore wind power and tidal barrages.

• Increased outdoor leisure activities willincrease demand for watercraft and othermarine services, including local ferry services.

• Global impacts upon the marine sector willhave considerable impacts upon regionalactivities as a result of the global nature of theindustry.

This sector will incur similar infrastructure andtransportation impacts as other business sectors.In particular, it will be highly susceptible toimpacts in coastal zones and within the marineenvironment. Furthermore, as with other sectors,transport links, particularly coastal installationssuch as ports and railway lines may be disrupted,as would electricity and telecommunicationsconnections. However, a reduction in coldweather impacts, in particular a decline frostrelated impacts, will be beneficial to many winteractivities.

Changes to planning guidelines, particularly incoastal regions, and potential increases ininsurance costs in high risk areas will affect plantexpansion and other developments. Climateimpacts in other parts of the globe will haveimportant consequences for many suppliers andcustomers as well as competitors of regionalfirms.

Components within engineering processes maybe affected by changes in heating conditions andrelated requirements for increased coolants, withpotential reductions in summer rainfallexacerbating this problem. In addition increasedheating moderation in offices and factories haverelated health impacts and affect workerproductivity, thus requiring changes to buildingdesign and heating/ventilation processes.

This sector has potential to benefit from changesin demand for watercraft and water basedactivities, including increased visitors year roundand increased use of the marine environmentthroughout the region. Engineering solutions tomany of the climate impacts on a global scalepresent opportunities through flood defencedevelopment, water quality evaluationtechnologies and consultancies involved in marinepreservation or management.

Coastal and offshore renewable energydevelopment has huge potential for the region.Recent developments in offshore wind farms, tidalbarrages and wave power devices mean that thescope for marine based power generation within


the natural environment of the South West andoverseas could lead to expansion into theseareas.

Recent trials in wave energy devices in Plymouthhave highlighted the potential for producingsecure, renewable and localised energy supplieswhich both mitigate climate change and limit theeffects of climate impacts on the National Grid.

The Way ForwardAs with many economic sectors, marineengineering will respond to a combination ofcustomer demand, risk avoidance, increasingcosts, and government legislation. The ongoingthreat of coastal erosion and related changes toplanning regulations and insurance costs, as wellas the dependence upon the marine environment,may result in this sector being more responsive tothe need to adapt than other sectors.

Key drivers will include demands for technologieswhich accommodate climate impacts at the coast.Linked to this will be direct and perceived costs asa result of impacts such as sustained flooding andchanges to insurance costs. Linked into this willbe changes in building and planning regulationswhich will dictate where and how coastal andoffshore facilities can be expanded.

New markets for marine based tourism andtransportation activities will develop as morevisitors come to the region. Increased demand forrenewable energy, including increasedgovernment spending, will provoke businesses toconsider this issue further and invest in thissector.

The introduction of further government legislationand incentives to both mitigate and accommodateclimate change will also act as one of the primarydrivers for change in this business and othersectors.

Potential Barriers

The small scale of many businesses involved inthis sector means that it is often difficult toconsider climate change on a medium to shortterm.

Uncertainties within the climate change debatepose a considerable barrier to change. In additionthe cost of making changes to plants and otherfacilities are considerable and unlikely to takeplace until higher knowledge levels are developedwithin the sector.

Knowledge Base

Little research has been done within this sector,and as a result knowledge levels and engagementwith business has been limited. It is unlikely thatadaptation strategies in all but the largerbusinesses, such as The Association of BritishPorts, have begun. Considerations of economicstability and future expansion are priorities on theshort time scale; climate change does not figure

within this timing or planning for the majority ofbusinesses.

However, the consideration of flood risks andplanning changes is evident and this may promptfuture adaptation considerations as the issuebecomes more integrated within the businesssector.

Opportunities within renewable energy has beenacknowledged by many businesses, which maywell lead on to looking at the wider issue ofclimate change and adaptation as moreknowledge dissemination takes place andmethods of integrating climate change intobusiness planning horizons becomes moreevident.


Challenges and Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts IN Marine Engineering andMarine Activities Domain



C Increased cooling costs for offices, manufacturing processes andinstallations.

C Health effects upon staff, both in offices etc. and outdoors.

O Increased tourism and water-use providing new markets.

O Increased use of solar power and off-shore wind energy installations.


C The need to change current heating and ventilation systems within buildings,installations and craft to accommodate warmer winters and to meet newbuilding guidelines.

O A reduction in cold weather impacts on supplies, manufacturing processesand infrastructure.


Flooding Increased C Direct infrastructure damage, indirect impacts upon supplies and markets.


O New products/markets for engineered flood defences and “flood proof”infrastructure.

Increased SummerRainfall

C

O

Restricted water supplies with associated cost implications.

Increased use of solar power technologies in manufacturing

O Opportunities for expanded work outdoors.


C

C

Impacts on infrastructure, in particular buildings and installations.

Increased downtime and delays as a result of water intrusion.

O On-site water collection and storage operations.

O Increased water supplies during winter months.

Increased SeaLevels and Tides

C Direct and indirect impacts on infrastructure, markets and supplies, inparticular impacts on port facilities, off-shore and coastal installations.

O New engineering requirements for coastal infrastructure and ship design.

O Engineering solutions to storm surges and tidal inundation,

O The possibility to develop products for tidal power generation.

Longer GrowingSeason andReduced Frosts

C

O

None identified.

A reduction in frost impacts on manufacturing and facilities.


C

C

Increased direct and indirect impacts on infrastructure and supplies/markets.

Increased down-time through loss of energy supplies.


O The opportunity to expand off-shore wind farms, such as the proposed site inthe Severn Estuary.


TELEMARKETING DOMAIN

ScopeCommercial activities associated with telephonebased sales, promotion and marketing throughthe use of call-centres and similar facilities.

See Also

ICT, Leisure and Tourism, Financial Services.

BackgroundThis sector has seen massive expansion in recentyears and has developed into a significant newarea of economic development within the region.In many areas call centres and related activitieshave replaced some of the more traditionaleconomic activity.

Tele-marketing companies tend to be relativelyhigh users of labour and telecommunicationsequipment. In addition the products they marketare very much dependent upon wealth levelswithin society and business activity in the regionand beyond. Therefore, this sector will be verydependent upon activities in other businesssectors.

Key Points• Changes to health risks to workers inside call

centres, in particular those working withcomputer equipment.

• Impacts upon communication infrastructure,which is the main form of product delivery.

• Increased levels of down time as a result ofloss of energy supplies andtelecommunications during periods of extremeclimate events.

• Opportunities to develop new markets withinother business sectors as a result of climatechange, including enhanced tourismopportunities.

• Increased opportunities to market governmentinitiatives to mitigate and accommodateclimate change through telemarketingactivities.

This sector will be subject to much the sameimpacts as business in general, includinginfrastructure damage, increased insurance costsand planning considerations. In addition changes

to energy costs as a result of climate impacts onpower generation and price rises to mitigateclimate change may have a particular impactupon this reasonably energy dependent sector.

Climate impacts upon communication structures,such as telephone masts, have the potential todisrupt telemarketing activities. These impactsmay take place within the region or on a globalscale as many telemarketing activities operatebeyond the regional level.

The potential to market some of the goods andservices that other business sectors may providein order to respond to climate change aresignificant. This may include flood controltechnologies, new outdoor tourist activities, andinsurance services for risk prone areas. As moregoods and services are developed, this sector willbe tasked with marketing these to customers inthe region and beyond.

Telemarketing may also be employed to promotegovernment or commercial initiatives to reducegreenhouse gas emissions or adapt to climatechange impacts, such as flooding. This could bean important role for this sector.

The Way ForwardAs with many economic sectors, telemarketing,will respond to a combination of customerdemand, risk avoidance, increasing costs, andgovernment legislation. However, telemarketingis very responsive to changes within businessesand is in a position to benefit from changes inmarketing and products in other sectors.

Key drivers will include demands for marketingschemes for new technologies which, forexample, predict and monitor climate impacts,and provide risk assessments to other businesssectors.

Changes in energy supply costs, and possibledisruption to supplies and communicationsservices as a result of climate impacts, will be ofsignificant importance to this communicationintensive sector. Opportunities for on-siterenewable energy supplies and energy efficientpractices and technologies exist to overcomesome of these challenges, as do satellite basedcommunications equipment which is lesssusceptible to climate impacts.

Potential barriers

Uncertainties within the climate change debatepose a considerable barrier to change. However,it is the lack of engagement with this issue withinthe sector which poses the main barrier toincorporating climate change into the businesspractices of this sector. Similar levels of under-engagement within the customers of tele-marketing businesses means that this sector isonly likely to respond once other sectors haveproducts and services they want marketing.

This sector will be partly responsible formarketing the products and services to

mitigate and adapt climate change,including climate proof goods andservices and insurance products.

Industry Source


Knowledge levels

No research has been done within this sector onclimate change impacts or adaptation response,and as a result knowledge levels and engagementwith businesses has been limited. It is unlikelythat adaptation strategies have been consideredor that the issue is of importance to many of thebusinesses in this sector.

A few exceptions may exist within businesseswho operate in flood risk areas; however, it islikely that these businesses will relocate ratherthan attempt to adapt as relocation is relativelyeasy given a lack of heavy plant infrastructure.

As with other sectors, considerations of economicstability and future expansion are priorities on theshort time scale, climate change does not figurewithin this timing or planning for the majority ofbusinesses.


Challenges and Opportunities of Key Climate Impacts in Telemarketing Domain

Climate Impacts Challenges and OpportunitiesIncreased SummerTemperature

C Increased need for cooling of equipment and buildings and associatedincreases in costs.

C Health impacts upon staff who work inside, particularly with electronicequipment.

O Increased marketing of warm weather activities and services.


C The need to change current heating and ventilation systems withinbuildings and to meet new building guidelines.



C Increased insurance costs and changes to planning regulationsaffecting infrastructure development.

O Marketing of new technologies to monitor and manage flood risk areas.

Summer RainfallDecreased

C

O

None identified.

Marketing of water management technologies and initiatives


C Impacts on infrastructure, in particular buildings and cabling.

O None identified.


C

O

Direct and indirect impacts on infrastructure, markets and suppliers.

None identified.


C

O

Non-identified.

Marketing opportunities for new crops and produce to customers, suchas new wines and foods.


C Increased direct and indirect impacts on infrastructure andsupplies/markets.

C Damage to overhead cables and communication infrastructure andsignals.


O Marketing opportunities for storm-proof goods and services andinsurance services.


CHAPTER 9

LOCAL AUTHORITIES DOMAIN

Scope

The wide range of functions and responsibilitiesundertaken by local authorities. Consideration ismade of County, Unitary and District Councils, butnot of Parish and Town Councils. Despite theimportance of this domain, time has permittedonly a limited enquiry in this area.

See Also

All other Impact Domains.

Baseline

Local government within the region is organisedthrough 6 County Councils, with 36 DistrictCouncils and 9 Unitary Councils.

The prospect of an increasing role for regionalgovernance is increased following the release ofthe recent White Paper Your Region, YourChoice: Revitalising the English Regions (May2002)

At present such changes are unlikely to beimposed upon regions, but will probably followlocal referendums. Nevertheless, within the timeframe of anticipated climate change such changesseem likely.

The majority of the proposals suggest anenhanced role for elected regional assemblies butthere is also a strong implication for changes atCounty and District levels. A growth in thenumber of Unitary authorities, and a reduction inthe number of County Councils, seems the mostlikely outcome of such changes.

Other Drivers of Change

Local Authorities operate under increasinginfluence from central government. This appliesto over-arching concepts of governance, such as‘Best Value’, and also to specific targets to beachieved in discrete policy areas, such as ‘Lawand Order’.

The full impact of Cabinet government in localcouncils is yet to be realised, but it will change therelationship between councillors and officers, andprobably give increasing influence to seniorelected members.

Local authorities therefore experience increasedpressure on limited resources with the growingperception that they are asked to achieveincreasingly more with increasingly less.

One of the requirements recently imposed onlocal authorities is the creation of Local Strategic

Partnerships (LSPs) for the purposes ofdeveloping Community Strategies (or CommunityPlans). LSPs are non-statutory, non-executiveorganisations which bring together at a local levelthe different parts of the public sector as well asthe private, business, community and voluntarysectors, so that different initiatives and servicessupport each other and work together. Thesepartnerships will become increasingly importantmechanisms through which local authorities willdevelop and implement policy.

Key Issues

The wide range of activities for which localauthorities are responsible means that climatechange, both adaptation and mitigation, impactson many different areas. Local Authorities needto identify those areas that are vulnerable toclimate change as a matter of priority in order todevelop appropriate responses.

Strategic responses on climate change are beingcarried out by many local authorities but generallythe focus is on mitigation rather than adaptation.

Local Authorities are encouraged to sign up to theNottingham Declaration on Climate Change.Again, there is only limited reference to adaptationissues within the text of the NottinghamDeclaration, despite the fact that the declarationrepresents the key initiative on climate change forthe public sector.

Many of the climate change adaptation issues thatface local government are similar for allauthorities. Certainly, neighbouring authoritiesare likely to experience similar changes in climate.There will be considerable benefit through co-operation between councils, both at County andDistrict levels.

It is unlikely that adaptation to climate change willachieve sufficient priority in competing councilagendas to become a major policy driver in itsown right. Therefore, it will be important to findappropriate policy frameworks within whichadaptation issues can be nested.

The potential hazards of flooding areacknowledged, and the statutory and advisoryroles of the Environment Agency and LocalPlanning Authorities seem appropriate to dealwith these issues.

Local Authorities have an important role inemergency planning, both in preparing and co-ordinating local arrangements. Responding toextreme weather events will now become animportant part of such planning.

Building designers, engineers and surveyors, andtheir consultants identified potential litigation asmajor concerns. It was unlikely that projects thatwere already completed would be re-visited, butnew projects will need to be designed to new,future-proof standards. We were advised


therefore, that changes in performance standards,codes etc. that reflected potential changes inclimate would be a highly effective mechanism forimproving performance.

As well as considering the more obvious andstatutory functions of councils, Local Authoritiesshould also be encouraged to consider potentiallifestyle changes that might be influenced bychanges in the weather. For example, the greateruse of the external environment in parks,pavement cafes, cycling and other leisureactivities, may require significant changes topresent planning policies.

We need both to adapt to the effects of climatechange to protect our communities and to actcreatively NOW to cut the greenhouse gasemissions that cause climate change. Inaddition to providing a challenge, climatechange offers an opportunity to addressissues like fuel poverty, which have doggedour communities for a long time.

Community Leadership and Climate Change 2001

Discussion

The Structure of Local Governance

Although local councils operate at county, unitaryor district levels the main findings of this study donot distinguish between the different functions ofdifferent types of council. Nevertheless, we didencounter some significant differences betweenauthorities, but this reflected geographic locationrather than authority type.

Workshops conducted in the south-western partof the region revealed a strong sense of isolationand remoteness from the corridors of power andinfluence in Whitehall. For example, it wassuggested that, despite extensive lobbying,central government did not appreciate thestrategic importance of road and rail links intoDevon and Cornwall, and their increasingvulnerability due to climate change. Such politicalconcerns are beyond the scope of this study butthey should be taken into account in consideringadaptation responses from the South Westregion.

Diverse Roles

The publication ‘Community Leadership andClimate Change’ identifies three principal roles forlocal authorities in relation to climate change.These are:

• LAs as service providers• LAs as corporate managers• LAs as community leaders

As service providers local authorities areresponsible for a range of functions which includethe following:

Development Planning/Land Use PlanningTransport (GTPs)Develop ControlHousing (both as landlord and enabler)Building ControlEngineering including drainageRoads maintenance, snowploughs, salt, etc.Conservation of buildings, parks, trees etcEconomic DevelopmentSocial and Economic RegenerationEducationCulture, Libraries etcTourism and leisureUrban Design and the Street SceneEnvironmental Health and Pest ControlWaste ManagementEmergency Planning

As corporate managers councils haveresponsibility for all of the functions that fall uponany large organisation. These include:

Buildings and other Estate ManagementHealth and SafetyVehiclesProcurementPersonnel ManagementRisk Assessment and ManagementEnvironmental ManagementPotential Litigation

As community leaders councils are called uponto be proactive with regard to the following, bothin a leadership role, and as examples of goodpractice.

Strategic Vision for communitySocial, Economic & Environmental well-beingEconomic DevelopmentCommunity PlanningRegenerationSustainability Strategy for communityClimate Change Strategy for communityNottingham Declaration on Climate Change

Links to Sustainability

There is some evidence of regional enthusiasmfor sustainable development amongst localauthorities, driven by a mixture of centralgovernment edict and local enthusiasm. This islikely to increase as Community Strategies aredeveloped and further commitments are made tothe Nottingham Declaration. The sustainabilityagenda seems the most likely policy frameworkthrough which to pursue adaptation to climatechange. A few authorities (e.g. Devon CountyCouncil, Cheltenham Borough Council) are nowpursuing specific climate change strategies whichdeal with both mitigation and adaptation agendas.


Data availability and understanding

There appears to be little published literature thatspecifically addresses the role of localgovernment in the advent of climate change. Auseful initiative has been carried out by apartnership between the Department for theEnvironment, Food and Rural Affairs, (DEFRA),the Local Government Association (LGA), theImprovement & Development Agency (I&DeA)and the Society of Local Authority ChiefExecutives (SOLACE). Amongst other outputsthey have published a short manual on “Guidancefor Local Authorities”.

Generally the evidence is of some generalawareness of sustainability issues amongst thosewith environmental responsibilities (such as LA 21officers). For others, even those with technicalresponsibility, the phenomenon has only justregistered. In fact the workshops that were run aspart of this study proved to very useful incatalysing understanding and awareness ofpotential impacts.

Some local government officers in the South Westacknowledge the issue of climate change, but formost practitioners climate change meansmitigation; reduction in energy usage andgreenhouse gas emissions, not adaptation. Thereis little evidence that local authorities have madeany use of the latest scenarios published byUKCIP. Again, this was a beneficial outcomefrom some of the workshops.

On the other hand we have evidence that laypeople seem to have a good grasp of some of thepredicted changes in climate and some of thesignificant impacts.

As part of the process of developing its ClimateChange Strategy, Cheltenham Borough Councilrecently carried out a survey across the localcommunity. This revealed high levels ofawareness not just of the potential causes ofclimate change, but also some of the likelyimpacts. Such understanding was not justreplayed headlines from the tabloid press, butwas soundly based on knowledge of the localityand the complex inter-relationships between thenatural environment, human society systems, andthe weather.

So, if lay people seem to have a good basic graspof the issues, why is it that local governmentofficers and members seem reluctant to engagewith adaptation issues? There appear to be threemain reasons for this;

• the type of data available.• the degree of uncertainty attached to the

data.• adaptation to climate change is nowhere near

the top of the political agenda.

This is an aspect which warrants further research,as our increased technical and scientific

understanding is of little value without theprospect of this understanding being incorporatedinto all organisations, but particularly those in thepublic sector.

Data

It appears that, even in a sector which takes itsstrategic responsibilities seriously, thepresentation of climate change scenariosrepresents a barrier to understanding andconsequent action. Even where quantitative dataare available, most officers and members find itdifficult to relate the numbers on climate data totheir own experience.

On the other hand, some more sophisticated datais required for technical purposes, ifenvironmental engineers (amongst others) are tobring some quantification to bear on technicalissues, such in the built environment, for example.

Uncertainty

There are many aspects of uncertainty in thelatest UKCIP02 scenarios. These are explicitlyacknowledged in the Scientific Report, and dealtwith very thoroughly. In fact one significantfeature of the latest scenarios is that of increasingcertainty and confidence in the models.Nevertheless, there continue to be misgivingsabout the reliability of the data and the willingnessto make investment decisions on what isperceived as dubious data.

It is this aspect that represents the biggestchallenge. Perhaps it is only the empiricalevidence of the changing climate over the nextfew years that will persuade those withresponsibility to make tough (spending) decisions.Is it the newly empowered elected members orthe technical officers who will wield the greatestpower, and be the best target for persuasion?

We commit our council to:Work with key providers, including healthauthorities, businesses and developmentorganisations, to assess the potential effectsof climate change on our communities, and toidentify ways in which we can adapt.

A clause from the Nottingham Declaration on ClimateChange

Political Priorities

The tenure of locally elected authorities is evenshorter than that that of national government.This is intrinsically at odds with the long-termnature of climate change.

The world of local government is increasinglydriven by edicts from the centre; targets, outputsand disparate but circumscribed agendas. Unless


such targets include those associated with climatechange, we are unlikely to see real action in theimmediate future, except perhaps in those areasvulnerable to major flooding. Whilst localgovernment is a political phenomenon, the politicsare increasingly those of the centre, of Whitehalland Westminster, and not at local level.

The Way Forward

Recommendations for Change

The following are recommendations for areaswithin which change can be initiated by localauthorities:

• Sign up to the Nottingham Declaration.

• Identify key adaptation issues for eachauthority.

• Support the national initiatives on climatechange already begun by the LocalGovernment Association (LGA), theImprovement & Development Agency (I&DeA)and the Society of Local Authority ChiefExecutives (SOLACE).

• Encourage officers in relevant departments topursue further climate change understandingthrough networks of professional bodies, localgovernment officers, Local GovernmentAssociation etc.

• Encourage sub-regional groupings of County,District and Unitary authorities to share bestpractice in both technical and managerialaspects of adaptation. It may be appropriatefor a regional organisation such as theRegional Assembly to orchestrate thisprocess.

• Undertake a more detailed exploration of theUKCIP02 scenarios and their implications forsub-regional locations. This might include thepresentation of climate scenarios in ways thatrelate more directly to people’s experience ofthe weather. The outcomes of such work canbe disseminated by local authorities to thewider community.

• Explore the most effective policy frameworkwithin which adaptation responses might sit.In particular, investigate the suitability of LocalStrategic Partnerships and CommunityStrategies as appropriate vehicles.

• Local plans need to take account of climatechange impacts – for example in zoning areassuitable for particular purposes, and in policiesdesigned to protect biodiversity.


CHAPTER 10

CROSS-SECTORAL DOMAINS

Introduction

This chapter explores the complex inter-relationships between different responses toclimate change across different sectors. It doesnot use the standard format for individual domainreports, but is more descriptive and discursive instyle.

The reports on individual domains concentrate onthose issues most pertinent to their particularsector. Even in these individual reports there is arecognition of the way that impacts interact acrossdifferent domains, particularly where adaptationstrategies for one domain clearly haveimplications for another domain. Nevertheless, itwas recognised that the Scoping Study shouldacknowledge cross-sectoral aspects of impactsand adaptation responses. It was seen asimportant to examine potential adaptationresponses across domains. In discussion with theproject steering group three contrasting localitieswere chosen in which to investigate suchresponses. These were:

• an urban setting (the city of Bristol);• a rural setting (the Tamar Valley on the

borders of Devon and Cornwall);• a coastal setting (the coastline of Dorset).

All three localities had the advantage of having aninter-agency or cross-departmental body thatcould address issues such as climate change.The city of Bristol has a Sustainable City teamwith responsibility for the cross-cutting agenda ofsustainable development. Part of the TamarValley is an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty,which has a partnership committee to assist in itsstrategic management. The Dorset CoastalForum was set up to promote the sustainablemanagement of the Dorset Coast.

Workshops were held in each of the localities.We are grateful to all those who gave their time tothe workshops, which involved the participation ofmanagers and decision-makers who had someexperience of considering problems acrosssectors. We have used selected examples fromeach setting to examine how potential adaptationresponses might impact across different sectors.

Urban Context: Public Open Space

The adaptation of public spaces in urban areas suchas Bristol to new climatic conditions illustrates theinterconnected nature of planning and design. In thewarmer and sunnier conditions anticipated in theUKCIP02 scenarios, shade in public space willbecome increasingly necessary and hence plannedand designed for. One such case is school playareas. Local Education Authorities and school

governing bodies have begun to put into theirspecifications for new schools the requirement ofshaded external areas. Existing school layouts willhave to be modified. The costs of these will need tobe included in LEA and school budgets. Nationalgovernment, with concerns over increasing skincancer and the consequent NHS bill, will legislate forsuch provision for those LEAs and schools who havenot done so already.

Shade will be required in other public places in urbansettings, for example, on streets. If one were to mapthe distribution of trees in Bristol today the relativelytreeless areas would be in inner city areas such asSt. Paul’s and outer city, former local-authorityhousing estates, such as Knowle and Hartcliffe. Thisraises social deprivation and resource allocationissues.

Technical issues arise in inner city areas wherenarrow roads and pavements are restrictions onstraightforward tree planting. New street and trafficlayouts may be needed, which would require extrainvestment. In new developments it will be easier toincorporate sensible planting arrangements. Inprivate developments local authorities will be able tospecify in planning requirements that appropriatespecies of trees will be planted at appropriatedensities and locations.

Shade will also be important in city centre areas inresponse to changing lifestyles. It is anticipated thatoutdoor living and street-activity will become agreater feature of life in the South West than atpresent. In future, Bristol may have to think of itselfmore like continental Europe with pavement cafesopen until late at night. Tree-lined streets such as thePromenade in Cheltenham may become moreevident in South West towns along with increasedpedestrianisation. On the other hand it may be thatnew forms of shelter are also required to protectpedestrians (and possibly cyclists) from extremerainfall events. Can shelter from both sun and rain beachieved through similar types of structures? and willthese be predominantly natural? (ie. trees or othervegetation) or man-made structures? or both?

Planners will need to anticipate trends towardsincreased outdoor living ahead of changes inconsumer behaviour. Such opportunities will bringtheir own problems such as law and order, changesin local bye-laws on the use of the pavement, andproblems of noise disturbance at unsocial hoursoutside domestic windows left open to increasecooling and ventilation.

The choice of appropriate tree species to provideshade must be made in the prospect of milder, wetterwinters, but warmer, drier summers. It will have to beconsidered whether the existing species of planesand limes will thrive in the new conditions. If not,tolerant species will need to be identified, cultivatedand planted. The effect on the urban landscape ofsuch new species will have to be considered, and it ispossible that the decision will be made to continuewith existing species, and accept a more demandingmanagement regime (such as more intensiveirrigation).


Tree planting strategies will also affect buildingfoundations, especially in the new climatic conditions.Species with too high a water demand will causesubsidence. Indeed such existing tree species closeto existing buildings may have to be removed. Moretrees per se will also mean more blocked drains androot damage to other features of the builtenvironment. Nevertheless, trees will havesecondary benefits in terms of absorbing pollution.

The fear of litigation may also be a spur for someinstitutions in adapting their environments to copewith new climatic conditions. It is possible thatschools may encounter legal claims through failure toprotect schoolchildren from the excesses of sunshineand heat, whilst local authorities may receive claimswhen existing and newly planted trees increase thedamage to foundations. Bristol clays are particularlyvulnerable in this respect.

Tree planting on the scale envisioned to provideadequate shade may create public places with anentirely different townscape, especially if non-nativespecies are required. The planning of such schemesmight use public meetings and exhibitions to explainthe need for these changes and use the opportunityto raise awareness of climate change and the needfor adaptation.

Although in the urban scenarios outlined above thereis no single issue which demands priority attention, incombination they demonstrate the cross-cuttingnature of adaptation responses to climate change.

Coastal Context: New Fish Species

The second example comes from the coastal setting.Rises in sea temperature are already being noticedalong Britain’s coastline. As one fisherman pointedout ‘…….we are losing the seasons: last year seatemperatures didn’t drop below 10 degrees.’ Suchchanges are already creating a myriad of effects:ecological, economic and environmental. Theknowledge of these effects does not just rest withexperts and scientists. It is those who derive theirlivelihood from the sea and coastal waters whoprovide an important source of knowledge concerningchanges to marine ecosystems and to the localcoastal economies. Moreover, local people’sknowledge is often not just restricted to their locality.Because they are linked into a wider network ofknowledge through their trade and industry contactsthose fishing the coastal waters of Britain have notonly an extensive knowledge of British waters but arelinked to marine fishing people all over the world.

The complexity of change in coastal ecosystems andthe economic effects that follow from this can beillustrated by changes in fish stocks off the SouthWest coast. For example, with warmer seatemperatures, Manila clams are now well establishedin the waters of Poole Harbour. The clams havethrived to the point where they are now activelydisplacing other species, including the economicallyimportant mussel population, through competition forlimited food stocks. Fishermen have had to shift their

business from mussels to Manila clams. The Manilaclam is only one of a number of new species that isdisplacing fish stocks well recognised on Britishdinner tables. Sea bass is replacing cod in ourcoastal waters, but not yet in our fish and chip shops.

Poole itself has benefited economically from suchchanges. The new types of shellfish that are beingcaught all round the British coasts are transported bylorry from various fishing ports to Poole. There maynot yet be the demand in Britain for these newspecies, but in Spain there is a ready demand,particularly to supply the Friday meal tables in thisCatholic country. So the lorries with their fishconsignments are then shipped from Poole to Bilbaoand distributed to fish suppliers, mainly in SouthernSpain. This is a new opportunity that climate changehas already created.

However, there are negative consequences fromthese new trading patterns. The previous fishingindustry based on traditional species like cod, plaiceand mussels was more environmentally friendly withregard to transport. That trade was based on boatscoming into port and the catches being distributedthroughout Britain by train and lorry. Now thetransport is primarily based on land with fleets oflorries travelling in greater numbers and longerdistances. CO2

emissions are therefore much higherin aggregate. Indeed such has been the impact onprevious modes of fish transport, that the rail spur inPoole Harbour is threatened with closure, and luxuryapartments are being proposed to replace theexisting harbour-side rail depot. Presumably thehousing development is more attractive with theprospect of a balmier climate in coastal Dorset. If therailhead closure goes ahead then it will mean thateven more lorries serve the needs of the port with afurther increase in CO2 emissions.

There are two other aspects to the tale of the Manilaclams. First, scientists when initially asked about thepresence of the clams in Poole Harbour advised thelocal fishermen that there was nothing to worry aboutas the waters were too cold for the clams to thrive.Clearly this advice was ill-founded: in fact the clamshave flourished. With changing climate, experts mayget it wrong again so making ordinary peoplesceptical of expert opinion, including views on climatechange itself.

Second, the experience of new species moving intoPoole Harbour and the surrounding coasts has madesome local people wary of new species per se. Wewere told that the experience of the clams wouldmake those responsible for the management offishing around Poole Harbour hostile to the import ofany new species. However, if we are to plan properlyto ameliorate the consequences of climate changeand to seize the opportunities, then we will probablyneed to be pro-active in the introduction of newspecies. We will certainly need decision-making forawhere the benefits of such an approach can bedebated, and institutions where appropriate actioncan then be taken. Ecological Luddism can be partlyavoided by harnessing the knowledge of local peopleand allowing them to share their understanding of thecomplex interactions between man and nature.


Rural Context: River Catchments

The third example is from a catchment basin, in thiscase the Tamar Valley. With a future rainfall regimewhich is wetter in winter and the prospect of moreextreme weather events, higher run-off and moreflash floods will occur. In the upper reaches of theTamar catchment high run-off is already beingexperienced because of the lack of wooded areas andthe intensity of stocking. With wetter and moreextreme conditions higher failure rates of man-madeand natural slopes are likely to occur. This will affectboth the productivity of the land and disruption to theexisting poor road system. In what is already aneconomically marginal area this will cause problemsfor farmers and certainly discourage tourists, a sourceof income for many in the area. With climate changeit is likely that more spring crops will be grown in thecatchment area, thus exposing the land for longerperiods. Higher run-off and higher sediment load willresult.

Reservoirs could be constructed to deal with higherrun-off levels but at the moment South West Waterhas no plans for further construction of reservoirs.Afforestation, for example with oaks, is anotherpossible solution to reduce higher runoff, but suchplanting will take a long time to mature to the pointwhere it significantly reduces run-off. Therefore, itseems likely that other forms of riverine flood defencewill need to be constructed in the lower reaches of thecatchment.

The Tamar Valley was an important mining area in the19th century. Mining debris is still strewn throughoutthe catchment but is stabilised to the present rainfallregime. The predicted increase in rainfall quantity andintensity will mobilise tips leading to slope stabilityfailures. The spoil heaps of the South West havenever received the attention that tips in South Waleshave enjoyed since the Aberfan disaster in 1966. Thepresent condition of the Cornish tips is uncertain andhence with even small changes in rainfall patternsslope failures are unpredictable.

These tips also contain highly toxic material such asarsenic. Toxic pollution of water supplies is likely tofollow remobilisation of such material. During theperiod of mining and the immediate aftermath of thecessation of mining, quantities of similar material didmove from the mining debris tips through thecatchment to be deposited on the mudflats of theTamar estuary. This will also be remobilised if run-offis sufficient to expose the toxic deposits. The problemwill be exacerbated by increasing sea level andpossibly increased storminess, which will raise theriver level in the lower part of the catchment.

Increased sediment load from upstream and changingsea conditions will increase the need for dredging inthe Tamar estuary. The increased sediment load willalso have an effect on freshwater fish stocks in theTamar. Salmon is the most important of these fish tobe affected because of the part it plays in the localfishing and tourism economies.

Conservation Philosophies andStrategies

There is one cross-sectoral adaptive response thatwas noted in all the workshops. This was a wish tohold onto precious, local natural features in spite ofthe changes in climate and which we termed the“Canute syndrome”. This view was not universal, butthere were instances where species, habitats andlandscapes were regarded as too important to lose,particularly when they related to some sense of ouridentity as British or English.

For example, the Tamar Valley has important marketgardening businesses, especially for strawberries.Due to its importance to the local economy it wassuggested that genetically modified strawberries couldbe introduced to allow the industry to continue underthe new climatic conditions. So genetic modificationcould make sure that we had Tamar Valleystrawberries and cream, making genetic modificationan agent of conservation rather than its usual imageas an agent of undesirable change.

Some would want to preserve particular landscapesthat are judged as important to our heritage.Landscape gardens such as those in the NationalTrust properties in the Tamar Valley could be onesuch English landscape. Under the changed climatewhat price would we be prepared to pay to keep thesethree hundred-year-old features? Would this be donethrough genetically modified species or irrigation?Landscape preservation on a much larger scale wouldneed to be considered in the case of AONBs. Theirvery name tells us that they are places of outstandingnatural beauty but what if nature changes? Do wepreserve them as they are, or allow them to evolvewith climate change? If we chose the former course,the countryside of the South West could come to bemade up in part of islands of conservation. The costimplications of such strategies will need to beassessed. The economies of these localities arebased mainly on tourism from people who visit just tosee these beautiful landscapes. If attitudes do notchange, the tourists will go away and the localeconomy devastated, but if they are preserved theremay be significant cost to the rest of us.

One of the aspects the Tamar case illustrated is theneed both to think in a holistic way; in this case aboutthe whole catchment, and at times to abandonempiricist thinking in favour of intuitive modes ofreasoning. For example the increased dredging in theTamar estuary has been happening for sometime butit has been difficult to track definitely the source(s) ofthe increased sediment load. So nothing has beendone about it as no one can be held responsible for it.

Management through Partnerships

The complexity and diversity of the issues outlinedabove highlight the need for debates within inter-agency bodies to ensure that cross-sectoral issuessuch as these are recognised, understood andaddressed. All of the groups that participated in thecross-sectoral workshops were part of some multi-agency partnership, either formal or informal, which


provided the context within which such issues couldbe addressed.

The Dorset Coastal Forum was established in 1995 tolook at the long-term strategic issues facing theDorset coast. The overriding aim of the Forum is topromote a sustainable approach to the management,use and development of Dorset's coastal zone, whichwill ensure that its inherent natural and culturalqualities are maintained and enhanced for the benefitof future generations.

The Dorset Coast Strategy has now been preparedon behalf of the Dorset Coastal Forum. It sets out afuture for the coast, covering the coastline andinshore seas from Lyme Regis to Christchurch. Asthe first part of the strategy, 15 topic papers onactivities along the Dorset coast were produced. Thepurpose of these documents was to encouragedialogue and consultation with Forum members andother interested parties, in order to produce astrategy based on consensus. The Forum is nowinvolved in the process of implementing the actionscontained within the Strategy.

Bristol City has a unit dedicated to SustainableDevelopment within its Department of Environment,Transport and Leisure. This new unit encompasses arange of services and facilities from the CREATECentre to the Ecohome, from environmental quality topollution control, and looks at Local Agenda 21 andits impact on Bristol's environment. The City Councilis also the lead partner in the recently created LocalStrategic Partnership which includes other agenciesdealing with issues such as health (the Primary CareTrust), and crime and disorder (the localconstabulary).

Many of the participants in the Tamar Valleyworkshop were part of another network in the form ofthe Tamar Valley AONB Partnership. This is a groupof organisations working together to conserve andenhance the AONB. Members of the partnershipinclude:

District Councils, County Councils, Country Land andBusiness Association, Countryside Agency,representatives of Parish and Town Councils, RailPartnership, Wildlife Trust, Rivers Trust, EstuaryConsultative Committee, English Heritage, DEFRA,NFU,

The partnership comprises two bodies: a PartnershipCommittee of bodies with a major AONB-wideinterest; and an Advisory Forum to ensurewidespread community involvement.

Together they seek to:

• Promote the AONB and the Management Plan toall constituent organisations and others.

• Co-ordinate work towards the vision for the AONBvia the implementation of the Management Plan.

• Review and monitor progress of the Plan and itsobjectives.

• Consider, debate and recommend courses ofaction on the main issues relating to the AONB.

• Accommodate new requirements due to changesin AONB legislation.

This may seem an obviously sensible arrangementthat needs no reporting, but, despite the fact thatpartnerships are increasingly popular in manyinitiatives, they have yet to be developed with aspecific climate change agenda as part of its remit.Such partnerships may well be appropriate toaddress the cross-sectoral complexity of adaptationto climate change.

The Tennessee Valley Authority in the USA providesan example of holistic thinking that may provide themodel for inter-agency institutions that could plan anddesign for the new climate of the South West. As thehistory of the TVA explains:

‘Right from the start, TVA established a uniqueproblem-solving approach to fulfilling itsmission-integrated resource management.Each issue TVA faced—whether it was powerproduction, navigation, flood control, malariaprevention, reforestation, or erosion control—was studied in its broadest context. TVAweighed each issue in relation to the others.From this beginning, TVA has held fast to itsstrategy of integrated solutions, even as theissues changed over the years.’


CHAPTER 11

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

Introduction

The Scoping Study set out to understand thepotential impacts of climate change upon the SouthWest Region of the United Kingdom, to explore thecurrent understanding of adaptation to climatechange across the region, and to consider possibleresponses. The principal aims of the Scoping Studywere to:

• Provide an overview of the best currentinformation on the predicted climatescenarios at global and UK scales, andparticularly at regional scale. Specifically toreport on the latest UKCIP climate scenarios forthe South West region for the 2020’s, the2050’s, and the 2080’s. This reportage was tobe based upon an understanding of historic andcontemporary climate change data for the SouthWest region.

• Report on the levels of awareness of climatechange issues across the region and withindifferent sectors and domains.

• Identify the main domains (and their keystakeholders) in the South West Region whichwill be most affected by climate, in order toidentify the main problems and opportunitiesassociated with the impacts of climatechange, and report on how stakeholdersexpect to adapt to potential changes inclimate.

• Identify areas for further action andresearch in response to this understandingof the type and extent of potential impactsand appropriate adaptation responses.

A brief summary of findings in response to theseaims is reported in this chapter. Recommendationsfor further action are reported in Chapter 12 andPriorities for Future Research in Chapter 13.

Climate Data for the SW Region

The quality of climate data, both of historic climate,and modelled futures continues to improve. TheUKCIP02 scenarios, upon which this study isbased, are able to claim greater certainty in manyaspects of the modelled climate, and are also moreexplicit about areas of uncertainty.

In putting together the questionnaire for this studywe tried to present scenarios in a simple way thatwould be accessible to all. Simple scenarios werepresented for single climate variables (such asaverage summer temperature and winter rainfall).

As well as crude numbers (e.g. ºC) an attempt wasmade to characterise the climate scenario byreference to other places that experienced similarclimate, or recent events in the UK climate thatwere similar. Despite this many respondents wereput off by the apparent complexity of the scenariosand did not complete the questionnaire. Thissuggests that even this simplified data is perceivedto be too complex.

Paradoxically, we also encountered the problem ofsome data being over simplified. So, a simplecharacterisation of average summer temperatureswas not sufficient evidence on which to basejudgements about passive heating and coolingstrategies for buildings, or even the impact oncoastal tourism. For even simple technicaldecisions on such matters to be well informedfurther information is needed. Data on aspectssuch as solar radiation, hours of sunshine, seatemperature, extreme events, cloud cover andrelative humidity all also required. Whilst most ofthese data are available amongst the 15 climatevariables reported on the UKCIP website, very fewof our respondents had accessed this information.The depth of information, academic style and use ofspecialist terminology tends to discourage all butthose well versed in the subject matter frompursuing the information they require.

The study has also revealed the fact that inspeculating about future climates it is not sufficientto explore just a single variable. We have foundthat understanding is enhanced by describingscenarios on a seasonal basis. For example,summers can be described as drier, and warmerwith similar frequencies of winds and storms, butpossibly higher intensities.

Although the study was explicitly based onUKCIP02 scenarios we have found both lay andprofessional alternatives presented, particularly withregard to the reversal of the Gulf Stream andconsequential cooling. Some detailed data arepresented in graphic form in Chapter 5. Theprobability curves for individual climate variableshave proved to be a very useful way of exploringthe individual climate variables in more detail.

Awareness of Climate Change

The response of stakeholders to the subject ofclimate change has been mixed. Somerespondents, particularly those with responsibilityfor the management of the natural environment,were well aware of the phenomenon. Otherrespondents were not only ignorant but did notseem to consider it relevant to their areas ofresponsibility.

It is difficult to explain this with any great confidencebut two reasons suggest themselves above others:

• the apparent complexity of data;


• the fact that adaptation to climate change is notgenerally considered a priority.

The apparent complexity of data has already beendiscussed above. The study also revealed thatadaptation to climate change is not generally apriority whether in the public, private or voluntarysectors. Organisations, and therefore their staff,are increasingly driven by targets, measurableoutputs and missions. This means that unlessadaptation to climate change is specifically on theagenda of a company, local authority or voluntaryorganisation, work in this area is unlikely to beregarded with any importance.

Almost all of our respondents reported that therewere no policies on adapting to climate changewithin their organisation. It was clear that in mostinstances there was no-one with formalresponsibility for climate change adaptation. Thislast fact in itself probably explains the poorresponse generally received to the questionnaire.

Within the different sectors that formed the focus ofthe study the best informed were those dealingexplicitly with the natural environment. Thoseorganisations providing water to the region, or withresponsibility for nature conservation or flooddefences seemed to have the fullest understandingof the potential impacts and had given somethought to adaptation responses.

Those dealing with other aspects of infrastructureand society varied in their level of awareness andunderstanding. It was surprising to find that thosewho were acknowledged experts in sustainableconstruction and sustainable development, withconsiderable expertise and experience in reducinggreenhouse gases, nevertheless admitted to verylittle understanding of adaptation issues in theirprofessional roles.

Business domains were again varied in theirappreciation of the issues, but generally there was alow level of awareness of the issue.

Overall, there was the impression that individualsdid know something about the main features ofclimate change scenarios for the region, but only ina personal capacity. Somehow this was not beingtranslated into a professional application. Ingeneral, the impacts were seen as threats orchallenges. It was only after extended discussionand further thought that opportunities wereidentified.

Impact DomainsImpacts and Adaptation Responses

Natural Environment Domains

The natural environment is probably the mostconspicuous and visible receptor for the impacts ofweather. In both public and professional realms it isthe natural environment that first comes to mind inconsidering the impacts of climate change, for

example through coastal and river flooding, watersupply and demand, natural habitats, and potentialchanges in agricultural crops.

With the exception of the more linear stretches ofprotected coastline and some river-valleywoodlands, many of the region’s protected sites fornature conservation are pockets of semi-naturalhabitat in a sea of agricultural or occasionally urbanlandscape.

The South West has a Regional Biodiversity ActionPlan unlike most other regions, but its practitionersin nature conservation are hampered by variousperceptual, institutional and practical barriers toplanning for biodiversity in the wider countryside(Watts, 2001).

With regard to biodiversity in the region it is clearthat changes are already taking place. The rangeand variety of species will not just be affected byhow we manage protected and designated areasbut how integrated land-use and managementstrategies can be developed. Difficult choices arerequired from those with managementresponsibility. We have encountered manyconservation specialists who have difficulty inaccepting the potential impacts of climate changeand seek (Canute like) to hold onto protectedspecies and habitats in the face of significantchanges in climate. Even during the course of thestudy we have observed a change in this attitude,and a much clearer recognition of the inevitability ofclimate change and the need for more radicalresponses.

The effects of climate change on agriculture arenow broadly understood. These include anextended growing season, the potential for newcrops, an increased requirement for water forsummer irrigation, a potential loss of competitiveadvantage compared with other locations, andreduced die-off of pests and diseases due towarmer winters. Some of these changes arealready occurring but within the farming communitygenerally there is not much awareness or concern.At present there are more pressing issues on theagricultural agenda, including BSE, the aftermath ofFoot and Mouth Disease, the implications of theCurry Report and changes to the CommonAgricultural Policy.

Existing, established woodland trees generally arelikely to survive changes in climate but new plantingmay require consideration of different species ordifferent nursery regimes.

The main impacts on the coast will be to do withcoastal erosion and the reduced depth of beachesarising from increased sea levels and storm surges.Difficult decisions are required from those withresponsibility for the management of coastaldefences. Abandon; manage retreat; or defendrobustly are the main options in the vulnerablelocations. Again an integrated approach is required.

The impact on marine fisheries is similar to that inagriculture. The marine harvest is already changingbut there are again more pressing issues than


climate change. Traditional species such as codare migrating north, whilst new, more exotic speciesare now present in southern waters. The otheritems on the fisherman’s agenda include the recentpronouncements on EU quotas, and the need torenegotiate the Common Fisheries Policy. Thesehave tended to pre-empt consideration of climatechange impacts, despite the empirical evidence thatchange is already happening.

The main impacts associated with rivers and otherwatercourses concern flooding in its variousforms. The recent experience of riverine flooding isstill in the public consciousness and the planningsystem is now exerting further control on potentialdevelopment in floodplains. Periods of intenserainfall also lead to problems associated withexcessive run-off from the land, and flash floodingin both town and country, largely associated withinsufficient capacity in existing drainage systems.Insurance companies are taking an increasedinterest in the financial consequences of flooding,and through premium pricing or new policyexclusions are likely to determine policy in this area.

Issues of both supply and demand of waterresources are affected by increased rainfall inwinter but reduced rainfall in summer. As usualstorage across the seasons becomes the mainproblem, particularly when extended periods ofsummer drought will increase demand for domesticand agricultural irrigation as well as for commercialand industrial use. The quality of water is also ofconcern as riverflows reduce and pollutantconcentrations therefore increase. Nevertheless,the water companies in the region appear to have aclear understanding of the main issues andappropriate adaptation strategies.

Society and Infrastructure Domains

The study has revealed three main issues acrossthe domains of society and infrastructure:

• aspects relating to physical infrastructure;• aspects relating to lifestyle;• issues relating to the management of change.

The physical infrastructure of buildings, bridges,power transmission lines, transport infrastructure(roads, rail, air) and heritage (both natural and built)are vulnerable to most aspects of climate change.The lead-time and investment periods forinfrastructure are such as to justify seriousconsideration of long term changes in the weather.Whilst changes in average conditions (e.g.increased rainfall in winter) will have some effect, itis changes in extreme conditions that are likely tohave the greatest impact. For example, althoughthe UKCIP02 scenarios do not suggest anysignificant overall changes in windiness and storms,the likelihood of extreme wind and storm eventscould increase, and it is these that will causephysical damage. So the main physical impacts willinclude flooding (riverine, coastal and urban) andpossible wind damage.

Climate change will affect energy demand in theSouth West with reduced heating requirements inthe winter probably offset by increased demand forcooling in the summer. Of particular importance tothe region is the potential opportunity for furtherdevelopment of renewable sources of energy:biomass, vegetable oils, solar, hydroelectric, windand wave power are all areas upon which climatechange will impact. It is widely recognised thatmore work is required in this area, to understandbetter the subtle impacts of the different climatevariables.

Lifestyle changes are significant in two ways.Lifestyle will influence climate change (throughpatterns of energy usage, transport etc.) and beinfluenced by it (through choices in holiday patternsand destinations, increased al fresco eating etc.).Such changes are elusive and there is littleliterature on the subject. Nevertheless we can lookto examples of societies and cultures which operatein the type of climates that we anticipate, as somesort of indication of the way that society in the SouthWest may develop.

In this report we have identified some possiblelifestyle impacts such as: increased use of bicyclesand walking as modes of transport; increased useof external spaces in urban areas with aconsequent impact on the street scene (pavementcafes, night life etc.). Increases in outdoor physicalrecreation can be anticipated, with potentialimprovements in general health, but this mayincrease exposure to radiation and associatedcancer risks. More research is required to trackpossible lifestyle changes and their widerimplications.

The management of change has philosophicaland political implications, as well as economic ones,in considering how best to respond to potentialclimate impacts. Generally decisions will be moreeasily made in the public sector, particularly at thelarge scale, if climate change attains sufficientpriority. Some aspects of the private sector can becontrolled by legislation, regulation, fiscal policy etc.Perhaps the most elusive challenge will beinfluencing individuals and householders to adapt tothe changing climate in ways that do not make thesituation even worse, through increased emissions.

Any adaptation responses will need to be managedin a way that does not exacerbate the globalwarming phenomenon. This report identifiesseveral instances where potential adaptationstrategies are in conflict with aspirations to reducegreenhouse gases and consequent global warming.This is particularly true in the transport domain,where new strategies still fail to acknowledge globalwarming implications. Also in the built environmentthere is the potential need for increased cooling insummer. Conventional responses would installfans, air-conditioning or similar cooling devices, allof which will increase energy consumption, andtherefore increase global warming.


The greatest managerial challenge is to find themost appropriate policy context within which toincorporate strategies for adapting to climatechange. Within large organisations the range ofpotential impacts is considerable so responsibilityfor adaptation does not just belong to a singledepartment or unit. Issues range from buildingmaintenance and insurance, to new marketopportunities. Managers must ensure that policiesand responsibilities are designed to reflect the fullportfolio of concerns.

Business Domains

Future climate change scenarios suggest thatsignificant business impacts will occur from severaldifferent climate variables. Across all businesssectors generic impacts will include:

• Direct infrastructure impacts as a result ofincreased flooding, subsidence during dryweather, coastal erosion, possible windstormimpacts, and sea/ground-water intrusion.

• Changes in resource usage, particularlyincreased energy demands for cooling insummer, and reduction in winter heatingdemands.

• Changes to internal conditions withincommercial and industrial premises, primarilyhotter in the summer and winter, impactingupon production processes and workers’health.

• Health impacts as a result of higher internaland external temperatures, increased wintersurvival of diseases and other associated risks(eg food poisoning).

• Impacts upon supply lines and businessactivities as a result of flooding, subsidence,and storm impacts on transport andcommunications facilities.

• Climate change impacts upon markets andcustomers on a regional, national andinternational scale.

• Changes to planning and building regulationsas a result of perceived climate impacts andrelated government legislation.

• Changes to insurance costs and coverage, inparticular in vulnerable geographic areas oreconomic sectors, such as operations withinfloodplains. Financial implications related tothis may include mergers and acquisitions, alack of inward investment and an inability todevelop or sell facilities.

Despite the potential risks and costs of theseimpacts, significant market opportunities exist formany business sectors to develop climate-proofproducts and services which reduce climate impactsand increase adaptability. Opportunities also exist

within specific sectors such as flood defencetechnologies, tourism and environmental services tocapitalise on both the positive and negative impactsof climate change. The expanding market forcleaner technologies and low carbon productsmeans that many new opportunities exist within thisfield and many businesses may choose to diversifyinto these areas. Such opportunities exist at bothnational and international scales.

A final consideration is the potential for litigationagainst companies who provide services which aresubsequently impacted upon by climate change. Asa result businesses may become susceptible tolegal challenges if their products and services donot allow for climate changes. This is an area thatneeds further investigation, and may well prove tobe a driving force behind many businessesaccommodating climate change into future projects.

Further research to identify the probabilities ofclimate change impacts and to allow businesses toaccommodate climate change into businessplanning and activities is required and should be atthe forefront of research activities. Businessesthemselves need to take a leading role indeveloping further knowledge on impacts, changingmarkets and adaptation responses.

Local Authority Domains

Local government within the region is currentlyorganised through 6 County Councils, with 36District Councils and 9 Unitary Councils. Structuralchanges now seem likely. These may include anenhanced role for elected regional assemblies, agrowth in the number of Unitary Authorities, and areduction in the number of County Councils.

The publication ‘Community Leadership andClimate Change’ identifies three principal roles forlocal authorities in relation to climate change.These are:

• LAs as service providers• LAs as corporate managers• LAs as community leaders

This wide range of activities for which localauthorities are responsible means that climatechange, both adaptation and mitigation, impacts onmany different areas. Local Authorities need toidentify those areas that are vulnerable to climatechange as a matter of priority in order to developappropriate responses. As well as considering themore obvious and statutory functions of councils,Local Authorities should also be encouraged toconsider potential lifestyle changes that might beinfluenced by changes in the weather.

Strategic responses on climate change are beingcarried out by many local authorities but generallythe focus is on mitigation rather than adaptation.Local Authorities are encouraged to sign up to theNottingham Declaration on Climate Change. Again,there is only limited reference to adaptation issueswithin the text of the Nottingham Declaration,


despite the fact that it represents the key initiativeon climate change for the public sector.

Many of the climate change adaptation issues thatface local government are similar for all authorities.Certainly, neighbouring authorities are likely toexperience similar changes in climate. There willbe considerable benefit through co-operationbetween councils, both at County and Districtlevels.

It is unlikely that adaptation to climate change willachieve sufficient priority in competing councilagendas to become a major policy driver in its ownright. Therefore, it will be important to findappropriate policy frameworks within whichadaptation issues can be nested. One of therequirements recently imposed on local authoritiesis the creation of Local Strategic Partnerships(LSPs) for the purposes of developing CommunityStrategies (or Community Plans). It may be thatthis is an appropriate policy framework throughwhich to manage climate change adaptation.

Local Authorities have an important role inemergency planning, both in preparing and co-ordinating local arrangements. Responding toextreme weather events will now become animportant part of such planning.

Generally the evidence is of some generalawareness of sustainability issues amongst thosewith environmental responsibilities (such as LA 21officers). For others, even those with technicalresponsibility, the phenomenon has only justregistered.

The world of local government is increasingly drivenby edicts from the centre: targets, outputs anddisparate but circumscribed agendas. Unless suchtargets include those associated with climatechange, we are unlikely to see real action in theimmediate future, except perhaps in those areasvulnerable to major flooding.

Cross-sectoral Domains

Because the various impact domains that havebeen investigated are difficult to separate from eachother, it was seen as important to examine potentialadaptation responses across domains.

Decisions taken in one domain (e.g. agriculture)may have major repercussions in others (e.g.biodiversity; floods). Decisions taken on uplandland-use in a catchment can have majorimplications downstream, and this is exemplifiedparticularly during and immediately after prolongedor high-intensity rainfall events. The role thatforestry might play in intercepting precipitation andmitigating surface run-off, and the role that a moresensitive agriculture can play in providing refugesand corridors for species, are examples of cross-sectoral and multi-disciplinary issues in the SouthWest.

Some examples from one of three localities whichwere studied for cross-sectoral issues illustrate howpotential adaptation responses might impact acrossdifferent sectors.

The complexity of change in coastal ecosystemsand the economic effects that follow from this can beillustrated by changes in fish stocks off the SouthWest coast. As a result of warmer seatemperatures, Manila clams are now wellestablished in the waters of Poole Harbour. Theclams have thrived to the point where they are nowactively displacing other species, including theeconomically important mussel population, throughcompetition for limited food stocks. Fishermen havehad to shift their business from mussels to Manilaclams.

Poole itself has benefited economically from suchchanges. The new types of shellfish that are beingcaught all round the British coasts are transportedby lorry from various fishing ports to Poole. In Spainthere is a ready demand, particularly to supply theFriday meal tables in this Catholic country. So thelorries with their fish consignments are then shippedfrom Poole to Bilbao and distributed to fishsuppliers, mainly in Southern Spain. This is a newopportunity that climate change has already created.

However, there are negative consequences fromthese new trading patterns. The previous fishingindustry based on traditional species such as cod,plaice and mussels was more environmentallyfriendly with regard to transport. Catches werebased on boats coming into port and the fish beingdistributed throughout Britain by train and lorry. Nowthe transport is primarily based on land with fleets oflorries travelling in greater numbers and longerdistances. Total CO2

emissions are therefore muchhigher. Indeed such has been the impact onprevious modes of fish transport, that the rail spur inPoole Harbour is threatened with closure. If therailhead closure goes ahead then it will mean thatmore lorries serve the needs of the port with afurther increase in CO2 emissions.

The complexity and diversity of the issues outlinedabove highlight the need for at least discussion, andpossibly partnerships, between relevant agencies, toensure that cross-sectoral issues such as these arerecognised, understood and addressed.

All of the groups that participated in the cross-sectoral workshops were part of some multi-agencypartnership, either formal or informal, whichprovided the context within which such issues couldbe addressed.

These may seem to be obvious and sensiblearrangements that need no reporting, but, despitethe fact that partnerships are increasingly popular inmany initiatives, they have yet to be developed toinclude climate change adaptation. Suchpartnerships may well be appropriate to address thecross-sectoral complexity of adaptation to climatechange.


CHAPTER 12

RECOMMENDATIONS

Introduction

The SWCCIP is committed to taking forward theissues identified in its Scoping Study. ThePartnership will work to ensure that consideration ofclimate change is built into strategic plans for theregion. It has endorsed the followingrecommendations and proposed actions. Theseare reported as a set of overall recommendations,followed by a set of recommendations for each ofthe clusters of domains.

These recommendations are also included at thebeginning of each cluster to which they relate.(Natural Environment: Chapter 6; Society andInfrastructure: Chapter 7; Business: Chapter 8;Local Authorities: Chapter 9).

Overall Recommendations

• Review the role of the South West ClimateChange Impacts Partnership to take forwardregional work on climate change.

• Ensure that the main findings andrecommendations of the Scoping Study areincorporated into current and futurestrategies and frameworks within the region.

• Ensure that the South West Climate ChangeImpacts Partnership continues to have anoverall understanding of South Westregional work on climate change impactsand adaptation, and to act as a focal pointfor that information.

• Encourage all organisations to identifyappropriate policy frameworks within whichto incorporate adaptation strategies.

• Increase awareness of the need for climatechange adaptation across all sectors. Moststakeholders are ill-informed about, and ill-prepared for, dealing with the potentialimpacts of climate change.

• Ensure that simple messages are conveyedto the media because conflicting messagescan create confusion on the direction andmagnitude of climate change.

• Identify and take forward specific projectsfor action:

• Review regional and sub-regionalarrangements for emergency planning inanticipation of extreme weather events.

• Co-ordinate the development of climatechange strategies within local authorities.

• Co-ordinate the development of climatechange strategies within sectors in theregion.

• Identify those issues at a regional levelwhere central government action is required.

• Undertake further research within selectedsectors to better understand the significanceof local impacts.


Recommendations forNatural Environment Domains

• Encourage the implementation of the SouthWest Biodiversity Action Plan incorporating thefindings of the Scoping Study.

• Monitor the quantity, frequency and impacts ofrun-off from agricultural land and uplandsgenerally.

• Make full use of the principles established in theMONARCH and REGIS studies in their potentialapplication in the South West.

• Avoid preconceived and fixated views on whatshould be found living in specific locations, andalongside what other species, in the face ofnatural, uncontrollable changes in climate andhabitat.

• Encourage site visits for all relevant sectors tothose mainland European locations whichcurrently experience climates similar to thoseanticipated for different parts of the South Westregion.

• Make use of historical and archaeologicalevidence, as well as contemporary evidence, inconsidering likely impacts of climate change onthe natural environment.

• Undertake further research in order to improvethe quality of data with regard to extreme eventsand probability, particularly with regard tocoastal storms.

• Quantify need for increased summertimeirrigation for South West agriculture andhorticulture.

• Undertake continual monitoring of climatechange impacts to increase awareness inagricultural sector.

• Review the potential loss of competitiveadvantage for South West agriculture.

• Develop policy responses to addressbiodiversity issues by considering integratedland-use management (including integratedmarine and coastal management).

• Review potential species loss, opportunities forrange expansion, and climatic effects onlandscapes in assessing impacts on regionalbiodiversity.

• Encourage further research into, and monitoringof, the erosion of coasts and beaches.

• Rationalise the current split in responsibilities forflood and coastal defence and work towardsmore integrated management.

• Assess the risk of remobilisation of toxicsubstances in riverine/estuarine sediments.

• Renegotiate Common Fisheries Policy in thelight of species loss and relocation.

• Monitor the impacts of changing waterquality/quantity in rivers on habitat andbiodiversity.

• Create a searchable database of hydrologicaldata on water quality/quantity data in rivers inthe South West region to be available tostakeholders including general public.

• Increase control on future development withinflood risk areas, including increased status forthe Environment Agency in the review ofplanning applications.

• Manage abstraction licences for water supplyfaced with increased demand for irrigation andindustrial usage.

• Review impact of longer droughts and modelled4% rise in household water demand by 2021 onregional water supply.

• Review capacity of sewerage and drainageinfrastructure in the prospect of flash floods,flooding of sewer networks, and rising sealevels.

• Manage increased turbidity, nitratesconcentration and cryptosporidium content ingroundwater during wetter winters.


Recommendations forSociety and Infrastructure Domains

• Review regional infrastructure for transport andutilities to identify further areas of vulnerability toclimate change over a long time scale.

• Review opportunities for increased production ofrenewable energy as a result of potential climatechange: e.g. wind, water turbine; solar; biomass;wave; tide; biofuels.

• Undertake further research into lifestylechanges associated with climate change,including implications for the socially excluded.

• Change relevant codes and standards to reflectanticipated climate conditions, particularly withregard to increased summertime temperatures,grey water systems, and increased exposure todriving rain and wind from extreme events.

• Invest in research into offshore renewableenergy sources - wind, wave energy, andreassess the environmental and economiceffects of the Severn Barrage.

• Design new buildings to anticipate reducedheating load in winter and passive cooling insummer.

• Investigate passive or low-energy techniques forincreasing ventilation rates and cooling forexisting buildings in higher summertimetemperatures.

• Increase awareness amongst those withresponsibility for developing and managinghousing stock: (including housing developers,Registered Social Landlords, local authorities,Housing Corporation, designers, and owner-occupiers).

• Include adaptation to climate change withinregional strategies for sustainableconstruction.

• Review potential impacts of extreme events(storms, floods, high temperatures, etc.) ontransport infrastructure (road, rail, air,shipping), undertake appropriate riskassessment, and review enhancedspecifications of maintenance regimes fortransport infrastructure (road, rail, air,shipping).

• Encourage pedestrian and cycling modes oftransport where improved climate conditionspermit.

• Undertake feasibility studies for alternative anddiversionary routes for strategic rail and roadroutes threatened by climate change impactsand extreme events, and lobby at national levelas appropriate.


Recommendations forBusiness Domains

• Identify managerial responsibility withinindividual companies for addressing the impactsof climate change.

• Carry out simple risk assessment appropriate tothe scope of a business based upon climatechange scenarios. Such risk assessmentshould include: health; supply lines;infrastructure; insurance; litigation, customerdemand, etc.

• Specifically investigate the challenges andopportunities presented by climate change withregard to the market for goods and servicesprovided by the company.

• Recognise that markets will be influenced byclimate change impacts at regional, national andglobal scales.

• In reviewing market threats and opportunitiesconsider potential changes in lifestyle broughtabout by climate change.

• Monitor greenhouse emissions at company orsite level and take steps to reduce them in orderto reduce the potential for global warming.

• Identify appropriate policy frameworks withinwhich to nest adaptation strategies.

• Co-ordinate the development of climate changestrategies within each business sector in theregion, possibly through Trade Associations,Professional Institutes, etc.

• Explore commercial opportunities for advancedengineering in the development of ‘flood-proof’infrastructure to accommodate higher stormsurges and tides.

• Explore commercial opportunities for thedevelopment of new technologies in renewableenergy.

• Undertake further research on climate changeimpacts on agriculture (e.g. drought conditions)and potential for biotechnology in adapting tonew climatic conditions.

• Increase awareness of potential impacts ofclimate change in order to increase marketopportunities for environmental technologysector.

• Encourage insurance industry to be moreopen in its deliberations on emerging policy withregard to climate change impacts.

•

• Encourage finance sector to identifyinvestment opportunities with regard to climatechange mitigation including low-carbontechnologies.

• Explore the potential for new local crops andproduce as part of regional and sub-regionalstrategies for marketing local food and drinkspecialities. Use SWRDA sector developmentproject as one vehicle for this work.

• Explore and monitor implications of globalimpacts on regional tourism and leisureactivity.

• Provide co-ordinated strategy and support forthe disparate and often small businesses in thetourism and leisure industry. Use SWRDAsector development project as one vehicle forthis work, in conjunction with Tourism SouthWest and relevant trade associations.

• Try to spread visitor numbers throughout theyear by extending tourist season to avoid furtherstresses on already stretched infrastructure.


Recommendations for Local AuthorityDomains

• Identify key adaptation issues for each authority.

• Support the national initiatives on climatechange already begun by the Local GovernmentAssociation (LGA), the Improvement &Development Agency (I&DeA) and the Societyof Local Authority Chief Executives (SOLACE),including signing up to the NottinghamDeclaration.

• Encourage officers in relevant departments topursue further climate change understandingthrough networks of professional bodies, localgovernment officers, and the Local GovernmentAssociation.

• Encourage sub-regional groupings of County,District and Unitary authorities to share bestpractice in both technical and managerialaspects of adaptation. It may be appropriate fora regional organisation such as the RegionalAssembly to orchestrate this process.

• Undertake a more detailed exploration of theUKCIP02 scenarios and their implications forsub-regional locations. This might include thepresentation of climate scenarios in ways thatrelate more directly to people’s experience ofthe weather. The outcomes of such work canbe disseminated by local authorities to the widercommunity.

• Explore the most effective policy frameworkwithin which adaptation responses might sit. Inparticular, investigate the suitability of LocalStrategic Partnerships and CommunityStrategies as appropriate vehicles.

• Local plans need to take account of climatechange impacts – for example in zoning areassuitable for particular purposes, and in policiesdesigned to protect biodiversity.

• Consider the implications for their localcommunities of potential lifestyle changesresulting from climate change.


CHAPTER 13

PRIORITIES FOR FUTURERESEARCH

Introduction

The following areas have been highlighted forfurther research:

Climate Science

Undertake further research in order to improve thequality of climate scenarios data.

1. Specifically with regard to extreme events andprobability, and particularly with regard tocoastal storms. It is recognised that this adifficult area for climate science but this is anaspect of the data that is important to manydomains.

2. Make the data currently published on theUKCIP website available in a more user-friendly format for use at a sub-regional scale.

Both of the above may form part of both nationaland regional studies.


Vulnerable locations

Further monitoring and assessment is required ofthe impact of climate change on vulnerablelocations within the region, such as Dartmoor, Islesof Scilly and the Somerset Levels.

Agriculture

Research into opportunities for new food and non-food crops, water management and diversificationas climate change may result in the loss of theregion’s competitive advantage in a variety oflocations and for a variety of crops.

Further research to produce an authoritative,comprehensive and detailed study on climatechange and agriculture in the South West in orderto identify key issues and recommendations.

Biodiversity

Investigate further the effects of climate change onhabitats and species in the region, including:

1. contemporary monitoring;

2. computer modelling;

3. analysis of long-term biological records.

Coastal Issues

Monitor the erosion of coasts and beaches, andexamine further the vulnerability of coastaldefences.

Research into the movement of sand and shingle toensure the maintenance of beaches.

Assess the risk of re-mobilisation of toxicsubstances in riverine/estuarine sediments.

Research within the coastal zone to assess theimpact of climate change upon transportinfrastructure eg rail network.

Forestry

Research the impacts of climate change for forestryand woodland ecosystems.

Marine Fisheries

Investigate the shifting geographic ranges of fishspecies based upon an understanding of thermalboundaries for fish species.

Maintain, develop and utilize existing databases(e.g. ERICA, operated out of the Cornwall WildlifeTrust) providing long-term data on marine fisheries.

Create a baseline mapping of stocks and species ofmarine fisheries presently found in the region.

Undertake continuous monitoring and the upkeep ofdatabases to identify changes in fish species andstocks as well as to monitor temperature changes inthe marine environment.

Rivers and Flooding

Research is still required into how aspects of waterquality will change with global warming and forassessing the ecological impacts of those changesin rivers and other freshwater ecosystems.

Prepare detailed baseline information on the qualityof rivers in the South West on which to base futurepredictions of climate change impacts, usingavailable models.

Prepare accessible future-based information on theimpacts of flooding and low-flow at a regional scale.

Investigate the impacts of climate change on othercatchment processes such as soil erosion,sediment mobilisation and yield and land slipping.

Assess the risk of re-mobilisation of toxicsubstances in riverine and estuarine sediments.

Identify locations of drainage infrastructure whichwill be particularly vulnerable to flash flooding.

Develop further understanding of potentialapplications of Sustainable Urban DrainageSystems (SUDS).


Water Resources

Investigate further the potential changes in demandfor quality and quantity of water.

Investigate the potential for more efficient use ofpiped water through the use of alternative sourcesof water, such as grey water, in domestic and otherapplications.

Society and Lifestyle Domains

General

Track possible lifestyle changes and their widerimplications, especially for the socially excluded.

Built Environment

Undertake action research in the constructionsector to develop sustainable design strategies (andproducts) to respond to the anticipated climaticconditions, particularly in response to increasedsummer temperatures.

Develop regional or sub-regional climate scenariosto be used for modelling, for example thermalperformance as part of a decision making anddesign process, as in the BRE tools for determininginsulation, glazing etc. Such work informingbuilding design and construction at a sub-regionallevel can achieve a local distinctiveness.

Health

Investigate the thresholds for heat related deathsand illness, and the vulnerability of particularlocalities.

Investigate the role of temperature in food andwater-borne disease transmission.

Investigate the uncertainties which currently existon such matters as:

• How fast will people acclimatise to the warmerclimate?

• How great is the risk of introduction of “new”diseases?

• How will adaptation measures in other sectorsaffect health, for example, increased use ofinsecticides in agriculture or home gardening?

Increase knowledge and understanding of theimplications of climate change and appropriatechanges in lifestyles to enhance good health.

The biggest challenge and easiest way to protectand improve the health of those living in the regionis to increase awareness of issues and responses.

Many health risks relating to climate change will beavoidable if appropriate changes in behaviour areencouraged.

Heritage

Establish vulnerability of specific heritagelandscapes and determine policy for defence orretreat, in conjunction with landlords and tenants.

Establish vulnerability of specific heritage buildingsand determine policy for management, inconjunction with landlords and tenants.

Confirm anecdotal evidence that environmentalstratigraphy may be disrupted as a consequence ofincreased seasonal waterlogging.

Housing

Investigate potential issues of fuel poverty related tothe need for summer cooling, and link to currentissues of fuel poverty for winter heating.

Undertake action research to develop appropriatestrategies for responding to changing climate ineach of the different modes of housing tenure (eg.private rented, social housing, owner-occupied).

Transport

Identify more accurately the specific locations withinthe region where transport infrastructure isvulnerable to flooding; landslips; tidal surges; etc.

Utilities

Undertake further research into the impacts ofchanging climate on each of the renewable energytechnologies, as the greater use of renewableenergy will both reduce greenhouse gas emissionsand sustain economic growth. There areopportunities to build on existing regional strengthsincluding wind, tidal, biomass and earth energysystems.

Undertake specific regional research into theimpacts of changing climate on offshore renewableenergy sources (eg wind, wave, tide) and reassessthe environmental and economic effects of theSevern Barrage.

Business Domains

General

Research is required within all major sectors asalthough many impacts are generic (eg buildings)others are sector specific and require detailedunderstanding of the different goods, services,markets, processes, etc.

Continuous monitoring of key determinants ofenvironmental quality is essential to monitor changein the region and encourage proactive industryresponses.


Tourism

Further work is required, In conjunction with tradeassociations etc, to assess the impact of the climateon existing and future tourism provision, as tourismplays a significant role in the South West Regionand much of its business is weather sensitive.

Specifically, identify the scope for extending thetourist season, and therefore enhancing theregional economy, as a response to predictedclimate change in the region, and recommendappropriate courses of action for relevant agencies.

Local Authority Domains

Action research to assist local authorities to developdetailed adaptation responses across the widerange of activities for which they are responsibleand which are vulnerable to climate change. Someof this work may be undertaken at a regional level,but it is probably more appropriate to work at a sub-regional scale, in clusters or partnerships of localauthorities.

Investigate the ways in which traditional land-useplanning will need to change to accommodateclimate change and sustainability issues.

Action research to identify the appropriate strategicframeworks in which to nest adaptation strategies.

Action research to explore how climate changemight be further incorporated into emergencyplanning systems.

Others

Further work at Regional, Sub-Regional and Locallevels to encourage integrated planning in responseto climate change adaptation.

Investigate the effectiveness and further potential ofinitiatives such as the Dorset Coastal Forum, LocalStrategic Partnerships, Strategic Coastal Plans asappropriate partnerships and inter-agency co-operation in addressing cross-sectoral issues.

Investigate the most effective means of increasingawareness of climate change adaptation issues,both within organisations and amongst individualsacross the region.

In particular seek to understand why it might be (asthe Scoping Study suggests) that individuals dohave some general understanding of climatechange impacts and potential adaptationresponses, but that this understanding is notapplied within organisations.


CHAPTER 14

CONCLUSIONS

Introduction

In addition to the specific impacts that have beenidentified and the challenges and opportunitieswhich they represent the following more generalobservations have been drawn from the study.

Awareness

Adaptation to climate change is not generallyperceived to be important across the South WestRegion. The significance of potential changes inthe climate is most apparent to those withresponsibilities for and interests in the naturalenvironment.

Natural scientists and academics dealing withecology, geology, hydrology, flora and fauna etcespecially those with responsibility for natureconservation and biodiversity are particularlyconcerned. Similar awareness and concern isexpressed by those with responsibility for managingrivers, coasts and water resources. Generally thisconcern does not extend to the more commercialapplications in the natural environment, particularlyagriculture, where other pressures seem topredominate.

The public sector is aware of the issues surroundingclimate change, but is not generally advanced in itsthinking. Local government is generally subject toinitiative overload, and diminishing units ofresource. Climate change issues do feature, forexample through the Nottingham Declaration, butthe focus is mainly upon mitigation andsustainability issues, rather than adaptation.

The private sector is generally notable for its lack ofconcern, both with regard to potential threats and topotential opportunities. Some notable exceptionsinclude the water industry and parts of theenvironmental technology sector.

Literature

The literature on climate change adaptation isgenerally addressed to national and internationalissues, rather than regional. There is very littleliterature on socio-economic issues, potentialchanges in lifestyle and impacts on the world ofcommerce and industry. The available literature ismainly focussed on physical impacts, and generallyidentifies problems rather than opportunitiesresulting from climate change.

Opportunities

The project Steering Group has been keen toidentify opportunities as well as problems arisingfrom climate change. This has revealed two

different dilemmas in seeking to identify morepositive implications.

The first dilemma concerns the idea of makingcommercial benefit from what might be seen asother people’s misery. Some consultees have feltuneasy about exploiting business opportunitiesarising from, increased flooding or structuraldamage. Such unease is unfounded. Theseservices will be much appreciated in the event ofpredicted impacts.

The second dilemma concerns the reluctance ofpolicy makers to admit to any possible benefitsarising from climate change. This assumes thatpeople will be less inclined to commit themselves toreducing further climate change if there appear tobe lots of benefits forthcoming. The study hasassumed that the public is sufficiently sophisticatedto appreciate both challenge and opportunity, andhas presented its findings accordingly.

Regional Dimension

The South West Region is both extensive anddiverse. This is reflected physically (coast, sea,moor and urban settlements), climatically (spatialvariations in temperature, rainfall, and exposure towinds and storms), and economically (M4 corridorand Cornwall).

It will be appropriate for some adaptation strategiesto be orchestrated at a regional scale. Otherinitiatives will be more appropriate at a sub-regionalscale. Some local agencies, working in partnership(eg. Dorset Coastal Forum), are well advanced withtheir thinking and are well positioned to implementappropriate adaptation strategies in their localities.

Sustainability

Although the focus of this study has been onadaptation to climate change, it is essential also toconsider the human activity which increases therate of that change. There is a potential conflictbetween pursuing mitigation issues at the expenseof adaptation concerns, or vice-versa. The studyhas revealed a greater awareness of mitigation, anda limited appreciation of the need to adapt. Thesustainability agenda can only be achieved throughengagement with both mitigation and adaptation.We can neither continue to accelerate climatechange nor ignore its potential impacts.

The Way Forward

The Scoping Study provides only the start to anongoing process of regional activity. Theinvolvement of key stakeholders in the study, fromprivate, public and voluntary sectors, has beencrucial to its findings and recommendations. Thecontinuing engagement of these and otherstakeholders will ensure that both the challengesand opportunities presented by climate change arethe subject of appropriate concern across theregion.

South West Climate Change Impacts Scoping Study Annex 1. Page 1 of 1

ANNEX 1

GLOSSARY OF TERMS

adaptation action taken by society in response to the potential impacts of predictedclimate change.

adaptive capacity the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climatevariability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to takeadvantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.

anthropogeniccomponent

that part of the driving forces of climate change which is attributable tohuman activities.

baseline climate the thirty-year period from 1961-1990 relating to either observed data ormodel simulated data which is used as the standard reference pointfrom which future changes in climate are currently based.

climate the average weather experienced in a region over a long period,(normally 30 years).

climate change the continuous pattern of changes in climate, in response to a variety ofnatural and man-made causes.

climate change scenario a coherent and internally-consistent description of the change in climateby a certain time in the future, using a specific modelling technique andunder specific assumptions about the growth of greenhouse gas andother emissions and about other factors that may influence climate inthe future.

greenhouse effect the result of certain gases in the atmosphere (so-called greenhousegases) absorbing energy that is radiated from the Earth’s surface, andso warming the atmosphere.

Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPPC)

an international forum of experts brought together by the UnitedNations to undertake periodical assessments addressing how climatewill change, what its impacts may be and how we can respond. It wasoriginally formed in 1988 and published its Third Assessment Report(TAR) in 2001.

mitigation activities which seek to reduce the human effects on global warming byreducing the quantity of greenhouse gases released to the atmosphere.

natural component that part of the driving force of climate change which is attributable tonatural activities.

precipitation water falling in some form be it rain, snow, sleet or hail.

return period the average time between climate events of a given magnitude. Forexample, in parts of Southern England, a rainfall total of 100mm in oneday has a return period of 100 years. A 100-year return period is theequivalent of the event that has a 1% probability of occurring in any oneyear. Nevertheless, it should be remembered that this might occur inthe current year!

sensitivity the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely orbeneficially, by climate-related stimuli.

vulnerability the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with,adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability andextremes.


ANNEX 2

METHODOLDOY FOR THEINVESTIGATION OF IMPACTDOMAINS

Introduction

The method adopted for assessing the potentialimpacts of climate change was to nominate aselection of impact domains as the subject ofdetailed study. This approach was based on themethods adopted in previous regional studies.This allows the particular operational, locationaland managerial factors important to each domainto be assessed with regard to possible changes inthe weather.

It is acknowledged that the broad headings, andthe categories of individual domains themselves,are both overlapping and arbitrary. Inevitablythere will be overlaps between domains,duplication of reporting and some omissions andmisplaced emphasis. Nevertheless, they providea relatively simple platform upon which thedifferent studies can be built.

Types of Impact Domain

There are three different types of domain reportedin the South West study. These are:

1. Individual Impact Domains2. Local Authority Domains3. Cross-sectoral Impact Domains

1. Individual Impact Domains1. Individual Impact Domains

For the Southwest Scoping Study the approachhas been to cluster the individual domains intothree groups:

1. Natural Environment Domains;2. Society and Infrastructure Domains;3. Business Domains.

These areas of study have been based upon theexperience of previous regional studies althoughthe business sector has been given particularemphasis here. Some important sectors (forexample education) have not been includedsimply because of limited project resource. Withinthe business domains a selective approach hasbeen adopted again to work within resourceconstraints. Here the chosen domains wereselected from the priority sectors within theSWRDA economic development strategy.

The table below lists the individual domains intheir clusters. The clusters themselves arearbitrary but their use has made it easier forresearchers and respondents to engage with whatwould have been twenty different domains.


agriculture and horticulturebio-diversity, habitats, nature conservationcoastalfisheriesforestryrivers, fluvial flooding & drainagewater resources: supply, demand, quality

Society and Infrastructure Domains

built environmentheritagehealthhousingtransportutilities

Business Domains

advanced engineeringbiotechnologyenvironmental technologyfinancial servicesfood and drinkICTleisure and tourismmarine engineeringtelemarketing

Table A.1Individual Impact Domains in their clusters

2. Local Authority Domains

Many of the adaptation strategies that arerecommended for implementation across theregion will depend on the planning, co-ordinatingand enabling role of government at regional andlocal levels. So, Local Authorities have beenidentified as a distinct domain, to be studied interms of their principal service functions, their roleas corporate managers, and community leaders.

3. Cross-Sectoral Impact Domains

In addition to the individual impact domains threecross-sectoral domains have been studied inorder to understand the complex interactionsbetween the various domains in a particularlocality. Although some interactions betweendomains are reported in individual domains it wasagreed with the Steering Group that the studywould benefit from specific investigations of cross-sectoral aspects. It was decided that these couldbe best explored through focussing on particularlocations as the setting within which interactionsmight occur. Therefore three different types oflocality were chosen, as follows:

1. Coastal Environments;2. Urban Environments;3. Rural Environments.


Following discussions with the Steering Groupand representatives of each of the localities thefollowing locations were chosen as case-studyexamples for each locality type:

1. Coastal Environments: The Dorset Coast;2. Urban Environments: Bristol City;3. Rural Environments: The Tamar Valley.

These offered suitable regional and spatial varietyand also provided a single agency as aconvenient point of contact.

Approach to Stakeholders andIndividual Domains

At the heart of the Scoping Study was the need toidentify the views of key stakeholders with regardto the potential impacts of Climate Change upontheir domain. This was, therefore, the mainfeature of the research method. Enquiries weremade of key stakeholders through questionnaire,personal and telephone interview, and follow-updiscussions. Nevertheless, it was recognised thatit would not be sensible to rely simply uponstakeholders’ perceptions where there is strongevidence available from other sources. So, themethodology for studying the domains strikes acareful balance between the straightforwardreportage of stakeholder views, and the additionalperspectives available from published research,specialist knowledge, etc.

‘Interviews’

The arrangements for stakeholder contact withinindividual impact domains have operated in threeways:

1. questionnaire2. one–to-one interviews3. follow up work

Questionnaires were distributed by e-mail tostakeholders and other contacts for eachindividual domain. The questionnaire was largelyconcerned with two sets of issues: 1. awarenessand understanding, and 2. possible responses toclimate scenarios. (See Annex 5 for further detailsof Questionnaire.)

The list of contacts was generated from a varietyof sources of which the following were the mostsignificant: delegates at previous climate changeconferences in the Southwest; contacts known tosubject experts; suggestions from members of theSteering Group; a stakeholder membership drawnfrom regional promotional events. Over 700questionnaires were distributed, an average ofbetween 35 and 40 for each domain.

The choice of e-mail distribution was chosen forreasons of efficiency, although it was recognisedthat this might exclude certain categories ofrespondents. Where possible these exclusionswere addressed though personal contact.

Climate Scenarios

The world of climate change is overwhelmed witha plethora of different scenarios for different timeperiods, different interpretations of theanthropogenic effects, and different predictions onfuture emissions of greenhouse gases. The newUKCIP02 dataset, published in April 2002,provides the latest and the most reliable data forthe UK. Scenarios are presented for the SouthWest region on a grid of 50km squares, and areoffered for the thirty-year periods around the2020s, around the 2050s, and around the 2080s,at four different levels of greenhouse gasemissions.

Whilst this level of detail may be available, and ofinterest to specialists, it was judged to bepotentially confusing to most respondents,certainly initially. Therefore, the questionnaire didnot present these multiple scenarios as the basisfor exploring respondents’ understanding ofadaptation issues.

Instead the questionnaire used data from the2050s scenario for medium-high greenhouse gasemissions, but offered them as possible scenariosthat might occur at an unspecified time, ratherthan as a firm prediction. So, questions wereformulated as follows: ‘How would the activitiesfor which you are responsible be affected if thefollowing climate conditions were to exist?’

This approach was extended to include conceptsof ‘challenge’ and ‘opportunity’ to encouragerespondents to think in both positive and negativeterms.

Eight climatic variables were presented, including:

• summertime temperature;• wintertime temperature;• flooding;• summertime precipitation;• wintertime precipitation;• sea levels and tides;• growing season and frosts;• winds and storms.

So for example, for summertime temperature thequestion was formulated as follows: ‘How wouldthe activities for which you are responsible beaffected if the average summertime temperaturewere to be increased by 30C?’ The description ofthis new climate was reinforced by the use ofother descriptors (eg. the temperature that wehave experienced in recent summers, and alocation in Europe that experiences similarsummertime temperatures).

It was anticipated that in the discussions with themore expert stakeholders, it would be appropriateto consider a wider range of scenarios, and theirpotential impacts. In practice this did not prove tobe the case. With only a few exceptions (forexample the water PLCs) the deliberations of


respondents were not dependent upon any moredetailed knowledge of climate scenarios. A usefuldevelopment for discussing impacts proved to bea simple characterisation of seasonal climatescenarios (for example warmer, wetter winters,and warmer, drier summers).

Responses

The response rate to the questionnaire (less than5%) was disappointing, even though such surveysmight normally be expected to yield no more than10%. Three main reasons are suggested for thispoor response:

1. general lack of priority attached to climatechange adaptation;

2. apparent complexity of climate basedquestions; (see below)

3. non-allocation of responsibility for climatechange adaptation to individuals withinorganisations.

One-to-one interviews were carried out with ashort list of key stakeholders, which was identifiedfor each domain. Typically this involved three orfour individuals for each domain. This included:members of the project Steering Group;enthusiastic respondents to the questionnaire;members of the stakeholder group; subjectspecialists from Sustainability South West; sectordevelopment co-ordinators within the SWRDA,and appropriate academics and practitioners.Structured interviews were either face-to-face orby telephone as appropriate.

Follow-up work was undertaken to check theoutcomes of questionnaires and interviews, and todeal with any obvious technical queries. Thepractice here varied considerably, so that forexample there was considerable dialogue withrespondents concerned with rivers and waterresources, whereas very little follow-up work wasundertaken in some of the business domains.

Reportage

The study of each Impact Domain was basedupon a standard template, the main headings forwhich are outlined below:

• Data availability and gaps and uncertainties incurrent knowledge;

• Perceived significance of climate changeimpacts to stakeholders;

• Likely impact(s) of a range of climaticvariables selected from UKCIP climate changescenario(s);

• ‘Opportunities’ and ‘Challenges’ presented bythese impacts, and their potential significance;

• Adaptation responses currently beingconsidered by stakeholders;

In practice it was not always possible to observethe full discipline of this template, mainly as aresult of the interests, enthusiasms and approachof individual respondents. Nevertheless it waspossible to investigate and report on most ofthese aspects for most of the impact domains.

Review

The study benefited considerably from a series oftextual reviews. In addition to those undertakenby the research team there was extensive inputfrom members of the Steering Group at InitialDraft and Final Draft stages. Further, DrRichenda Connell (from the UKCIP team) andPete Grigorey (from the South West office of theEnvironment Agency) provided a rigorous finalreview which was invaluable in correctingtechnical aspects of climate scenarios andimpacts as well as textual editing. Thesecontributions are much appreciated.

Critique of Method

Both the strengths and the weaknesses of themethod outlined above arise from its dependenceupon contributions from the wide range ofstakeholders.

The strengths derive particularly from thecontributions of stakeholders in exploring thelevels of awareness and understanding within andbetween different domains. The contribution fromthe wide range of stakeholders has ensured thatthe real world of practice has been represented inthe findings.

The weaknesses derive from the fact that, as thestudy reveals, in some domains there is onlylimited understanding of the climate scenarios andthe implications of potential changes in theweather. Therefore, some of the responses,particularly those within the tables listingchallenges and opportunities, may not stand up torigorous examination. Whilst every effort hasbeen made to filter out the least plausible impactsit is beyond the collective expertise of theresearch team to ensure that all of thesesuggestions are sound.

This is not a serious criticism for this type ofstudy. A Scoping Study is not intended to bedefinitive or comprehensive. It is intended to bewide-ranging and exploratory. On balancetherefore, it is judged to be better to include theperceptions of a wide variety of stakeholders, thanto insist on absolute verities from a morerestricted set of sources.

Overall the methodology has been effective inrevealing different levels of awareness within thedifferent domains, identifying what each domainconsiders to be its key issues, and reporting onthe potential challenges and opportunities ofclimate change. These were the key objectives.


ANNEX 3

BIBLIOGRAPHY

A. Books, Journals, etc

Author Title Date Publisher

ABI Inland Flooding Risk: Issues facing theinsurance industry. General Insurance Reportno. 10

2001 ABI

ABI Review of the Impact of Variable and ChangingClimate on UK Wind Claims Research Reportno. 8

2001 ABI

Anon Cool Space: Buildings and Thermal Comfort,and Reacting to Climate Change

2001 Architects Journal 213 (9) 42

Anon The Building Envelope: Climate ChangeValidates Roofing Insulation Advantages

1998 Buildings 92 (3) 32

Arnell, NW, Jenkins, Aand George, DG

The Implications of Climate Change for theNational Rivers Authority

1994 HMSO

Broadmeadow, MSJ Climate Change: Implications for UK Forestry.Forestry Commission Information Note 31

2000 Forestry Commission

Broadmeadow, MSJ (Ed.) Climate Change: Impacts on UK Forest ForestryCommission Bulletin 125


Broecker, WS Thermohaline circulation, the Achilles Heel ofour climate system. Will man-made CO2 upsetthe current balance?

1997 Science 278, 1582-1588

Cannell, MGR; Palutikof,JP and Sparks, TH (Eds)

Indicators of Climate Change in the UK 1999 DETR ref 99DPL001

Causer, P and Williams, T(Eds)

Region in Figures: South West 2002 Office for National Statistics:HMSO

Centre for Ecology andHydrology

Flood Estimation Handbook 1999 CEH

Chamberlain, DE andFuller, RJ

Contrasting Patterns of Change in theDistribution and Abundance of Farmland Birdsin Relation to Farming System in LowlandBritain

2001 Global Ecology and Biogeography,10, 399-409

Chambers, FM and Ogle,M (Eds)

Climate Change: Critical Concepts in theEnvironment. Volume 1 ‘Global Warming’:Carbon Dioxide and climate change

2002a Routledge


Critical Concepts in the Environment. Volume2. Natural forcing factors for climate change ontimescales 10-1 to 105 years

2002b Routledge


Climate Change: Critical Concepts in theEnvironment. Volume 3. Natural climatechange: proxy-climate data

2002c Routledge


Climate Change: Critical Concepts in theEnvironment. Volume 4. Evaluating recent andfuture climate change

2002d Routledge

Chartered Institute ofInsurers (CII)

Research Report: Climate Change andInsurance

2001 CII

Courtney, R; Chow, Dand Livermore, G

Prioritising Climate Change Issues with respectto other construction related agendas

2002 UMIST, Dept. of Civil andConstruction Engineering



Crichton, D The Implications of Climate Change for theInsurance Industry

2002 Building Research Establishment

DEFRA, I&DeA, LGA,and SOLACE

Community leadership and Climate Change:Guidance for Local Authorities

2001 DEFRA

DEFRA Flood and Coastal Defence Project AppraisalGuidance

2000 MAFF, DEFRA

DEFRA National Appraisal of Assets at Risk of Floodingand Coastal Erosion in England and Wales

2001 HMSO

DETR Climate Change: Draft UK Programme 2000 DETR

DETR Potential Adaptation Strategies for ClimateChange

2000 HMSO

Department for Transport A New Deal for Transport: Better for Everyone 1998 Department for Transport (DFT)

Department for Transport Transport 2010: The 10 Year Plan 2000 Department for Transport (DFT)

Department of Health Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK. Anexpert review for comment

2001 Department of Health

Donald, PF andGreenwood, JJD

Spatial Patterns of Range Contraction in BritishBreeding Birds

2001 Ibis 143, 593-601

DTLR Regulatory Impact Assessment – PlanningGuidance Note 25 – Development and FloodRisk (PPG25)

2000 CTLR

Entec (UK) Ltd. The Potential Impacts of Climate Change in theEast Midlands

2000 East Midlands SustainableDevelopment Round Table

Environment Agency The Implications of Climate Change for theEnvironment Agency

1999 Environment Agency

Environment Agency The South West’s Environment – A draft report 1999 Environment Agency

Environment Agency Flood Risk Mapping 2000 Environment Agency

Environment Agency Environment Action 2001 Environment Agency

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Environment Agency Lessons Learned: Autumn 2000 floods 2001 Environment Agency

Environment Agency Flood in the South West – the story of Winter2000


Environment Agency Water Management Action Strategy 2001 Environment Agency

Environment South West Pressures on the Environment: Natural Forces 2001 Environment South West

Environment Agency Brunton Flood Plan n/a Environment Agency

Environment Agency Exeter Flood Plan n/a Environment Agency

Environment Agency The Parrett Catchment: Water ManagementStrategy Action Plan


European Commission White Paper. European Transport Policy for2010: Time to decide

2001 European Commission

European Union European Forestry Strategy. Council Resolution(15/12/98) on a Forestry Strategy for theEuropean Union

1999 European Union (1999/C56/01)

Farrar, JF and Vaze, P(Eds)

Wales: Changing Climate, Challenging Choices– A Scoping Study of Climate Change Impactsin Wales

2000 Cardiff: The National Assembly forWales

FBE Report 2 – Potential Implications of ClimateChange in the Built Environment

2001 Foundation for the BuiltEnvironment



Forestry Commission The UK Forestry Standard: The Government’sApproach to Sustainable Forestry


Fuller, M; Winter, M;Hopkins, A; Bol, R andForrest, V

Knowledge Transfer Initiative on Impacts andAdaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture

2002 MAFF/IGER

Fuller, RJ and Gill, RMA Ecological Impacts of Increasing Numbers ofDeer in British Woodland

2001 Forestry 74, 193-199

Garvin, SL, Sanders, CH,and Phillipson, MC.

Impact of Climate Change on Building 1998 BRE, Workshops Report, BREScottish Laboratory

Garvin, SL, Sanders, CH,and Phillipson, MC.

Building Refurbishment and the Impact ofClimate Change

1999 BRE Scottish Laboratory

GOSW Regional Planning Guidance for the South West(RPG 10)

2001 HMSO

Graves, HN andPhillipson, MC

Potential Implications of Climate Change in theBuilt Environment: FBE Report 2

2000 Construction ResearchCommunications

Green, RE; Harley, M;Spalding, M and Zöckler,C (Eds)

Impacts of Climate Change on Wildlife 2001 RSPB

Halcrow Group Ltd. SWARRMS London to South West and SouthWales Multi-Modal Study: Final Report

2001 Halcrow Group Ltd.

Hambler, C and Speight,MR

Biodiversity Conservation in Britain: Sciencereplacing tradition.

1995 British Wildlife 6 (3), 137-148

Harrison, PA; Berry, PMand Dawson, TE (Eds)

Climate Change and Nature Conversation inBritain and Ireland: Modelling NaturalResponses to Climate Change (the MONARCHproject)

2001 UKCIP

Heath, J and Kersteins, G Effects of Elevated CO2 on Leaf Gas Exchangein Beech and Oak at Two Levels of NutrientSupply: consequences of sensitivity to droughtin beech

2001 Plant, Cell and Environment 20,57-67

HMG White Paper Your Region, Your Choice: Revitalising theEnglish Regions

2002 Office of the Deputy Prime Minister

Holman, IP, Loveland, PJand Najerro, P

Regional Climate Change Impact ResponseStudies (RegIS) in East Anglia and North WestEngland

2001 UKCIPMAFF CC0337

Hossell, JE; Briggs, B andHepburn, IR

Climate Change and UK Nature Conservation: Areview of the impact of climate change on UKspecies and habitat conservation policy

2000 DETR

Hulme,M., Jenkins,G.J. Climate Change Scenarios for the UnitedKingdom: Scientific Report, UKCIP TechnicalReport Number 1.

1998 Climate Research Unit, Norwich,UK

Hulme,M., Jenkins,G.J.,et al

Climate Change Scenarios for the UnitedKingdom: The UKCIP Scientific Report

2002 University of East Anglia, UK

Hunt, J and Metcalf, G(Eds)

The Cheltenham Climate Change Forum;Conference Report

2001 Cheltenham and GloucesterCollege of Higher Education

Huntley, B; Bartlein, PJand Prentice, IC

Climatic Control on the Distribution andAbundance of Beech in Europe and NorthAmerica

1989 Journal of Biogeography 16, 551-560

Huntley, B; Berry, PM;Cramer, W andMcDonald, AP

Modelling Present and Potential Future Rangesof Some European Higher Plants Using ClimateResponse Surfaces

1995 Journal of Biogeography, 22, 967-1001

Institution of CivilEngineers (ICE)

Learning to Live with Rivers (final report of thePresidential Commission to review technicalaspects of flood risk management in Englandand Wales)

2001 ICE



IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).A Special Report of Working Group III of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

2000 IPCC Cambridge University Press

IPCC Climate Change 2001: the Scientific Basis 2001 IPCC Cambridge University Press

IPCC Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation andVulnerability. A Report of Working Group II ofthe International Governmental Panel onClimate Change

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Kerr, A et al. Climate Change: Scottish Implications ScopingStudy

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1996 Foundation for Water Research

Kovats,S and Bentham, G Health and Demography – workshop report 16th

November 19991999 C-CLIF

Langford, I and Day, RJ Climate Change and Health: Implications for theTourist industry. Conference on Climate Changeand Tourism.

1998 University of East Anglia

Levermore,G Building Energy Management Systems:applications to low-energy HVAC and naturalventilation control. Second Edition

2000 E&FN Spon

Lowe, R A Review of Recent and Current Initiatives onClimate Change and its Impact on the BuiltEnvironment: Impact Effectiveness andRecommendations

2001 Centre for the Built Environment,Leeds Metropolitan University

Luk, JYK; Rosalion, N;Brindle, R and Chapman,R.

Reducing Road Demand by Land-use Changes,Public Transport Improvements and TDMMeasures: A Review. Research Report No. 313

1998 ARRB Transport Research Ltd.

MAFF Climate Change and Agriculture in the UnitedKingdom

2000 MAFF, London, UK

MAFF Flood and Coastal Defence Research andDevelopment: Report of the Advisory Committee

2000 PB4112, MAFF, London, UK

McKenzie Hedger, M etal. (Eds)

Climate Change: Assessing the Impacts –Identifying Responses; the First Three Years ofthe UK Climate Impacts Programme

2000 UKCIP/DETR

Moffat, AJ Trees, People and Profits – Into the NextMillennium: Environmental Changes

1999 Quarterly Journal of Forestry 93,211-220

National Audit Office Inland Flood Defence. Report by the Controllerand Auditor General HC299 Session 2000-2001

2001 HMSO

Newson, M Flood Hazard in the United Kingdom 1975 OUP

Nottingham EnergyPartnership

The Nottingham Declaration on Climate Change 2000 Nottingham City Council

Palutikof, JP, Subak, Sand Agnew, MD (Eds)

Economic Impacts of the Hot Summer andUnusually Warm Year of 1995


Parker,DE et al Marine Surface Temperature: observedvariations and data requirements.

1995 Climatic Change Issue 31

Parry, M and Parry, C Global Warming: Implications for Housing andPlanning in the UK

1991 Housing and Planning Review 46(3) 4-5

Parry, ML (Ed.) Assessment of Potential Effects andAdaptations for Climate Change in Europe: TheEurope Acacia Project (Second Report)

1996 Jackson Environment Institute,University of East Anglia



Pearson, A Floodplain Development Under InsuranceThreat

2001 Building 13 July 2001

Pearson, A Insurance Nightmare Ahead 2001 Building 13 July 2001

Perring, FH and Walters,SM (Eds)

Atlas of the British Flora 2nd Edition 1976 BSBI, EP Publishing

Planque, B and Fredou, T Temperature and the Recruitment of AtlanticCod (Gadus morhua)

199 Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci.; 56, 2069-2077

Renewable Energy Officefor Cornwall (REOC)

Renewable Energy: A Strategy forCornwall2002-2010. REOC Report no. 2

2002 Renewable Energy Office forCornwall (REOC)

Reynolds, J Tourism and Recreation; at Partnership forAction on the Coast, 9th November 2001

2001 Devon County Council

Ridgewell, J Climate Change and the Holiday Industry:Planning Implications

2000

Robinson, RA; Wilson, JDand Crick, HQP

The Importance of Arable Habitat for FarmlandBirds in Grassland Landscapes

2001 Journal of Applied Ecology

Robson, AJ et al. A Study of Natural Trend and variation in UKFloods

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RPC (WE) Quick Wins: Indicative list of limited-cost railimprovement schemes, for near-term delivery

2002 Rail Passengers Committee,Western England

RPC (WE) Western Advance (2nd Edition): A plan for thegrowth of rail passenger services servingWestern England 2001-2021

2001 Rail Passengers Committee,Western England

Russell, K The Climatic Challenge for the South West;Impacts and Opportunities for EconomicDevelopment in the South West Associated withClimate Change. Technical Report

2000 The Duchy of Cornwall

Science and TechnologyPolicy Research Unit

Socio-Economic Futures Scenarios for ClimateImpact Assessment

1999 University of Sussex, Brighton

Schofield, S Climate Change and Tourism in the South West;Proceedings of the Business OrientedWorkshop, the Grand Hotel, Torquay 30th

October 2001

2001 C-CLIF

South West RenewableEnergy Group

A Renewable Energy Strategy for the SouthWest

2002 SWRDA

South West Tourism Facts of Tourism 2000 2000 South West Tourism

Stebbing, ARD; Turk,SMT; Wheeler, A andClarke, KR

Immigration of Southern Fish Species to South-West England Linked to Warming of the NorthAtlantic (1960-2001)

2002 J. Mar. Biol. Ass. UK 82, 177-180

Swaby, SE and Potts,GW

The Sailfin Dory, a First British Record 1999 J. Fish. Biol. 54, 1338-1340

SWRDA Regional Strategy for the South West ofEngland

2000 SWRDA

SWRDA Wessex Rail Franchise: Aspirations for theSouth West Region

2001 SWRDA, SWRA, RPC (WE) Jointpublication

SWRDA Environment South West: RDA Observatorywebsite

2002 www.swenvo.org.uk

Tikka, PM; Hogmander, Hand Koski, PS

Road and Railway Verges Serve as DispersalCorridors for Grassland Plants

2001 Landscape Ecology 16 (7) 659-666

Tolley, R (Ed.) The Greening of Urban Transport: Planning forWalking and Cycling in Western Cities. 3rd

Edition

2002 John Wiley

http://www.swenvo.org.uk/



United Kingdom ClimateChange Impacts ReviewGroup (UKCCIRG)

Review of the Potential Effects of ClimateChange in the United Kingdom

1996 DoE

UKCIP Socio-Economic Scenarios for Climate ChangeImpact Assessment: a guide to their use in theUK Climate Impacts programme

2001 UKCIP, Oxford, UK

Vernon, J Barriers to Sustainability in Tourism-RelatedBusinesses in South East Cornwall. Results of aQuestionnaire Survey

2001 University of Plymouth, WorkingPaper No. 2

Viner, D Climate Change and Tourism.A presentation to the Climate Change andTourism in the South West Business OrientedWorkshop, the Grand Hotel, Torquay 30th

October 2001


Viner, D and Agnew, M Potential Impacts of Climate Change onInternational Tourism

2001 Int. J. Tourism and Hospitality Res.Vol3. 37-61

Wade, S, et al (eds) Rising to the Challenge: The Impacts of ClimateChange in the South East in the 21st Century,Technical Report

1999 WS Atkins, Epsom

Watts, K Planning for Biodiversity in the WiderCountryside: Recognising Opportunities,Overcoming Barriers

2001 Unpublished PhD thesis,Cheltenham & Gloucester Collegeof HE (University ofGloucestershire)

Webb, BW Water Quality Trends and Geochemical MassBalance: Trends in Stream and RiverTemperature

1997 Advances in HydrologicalProcesses; 81-102

West Country Partnership Towards 2020 – A Tourism Strategy for theSouth West

1999 West Country Tourist Board

Willerton, P Maritime Issues in the SW; TransportationPlanning, Problems and Solutions – ATransportation Symposium

195 The Chartered Institute ofTransport

Wilson, MI and Burtwell,MH

Prioritising Future Construction Research andAdapting to Climate Change: Infrastructure(Transport ad Utilities)

2002 TRL: Limited Project ReportPR/IS/13/02 for the CRISPCommission

WS Atkins TVMMS Thames Valley Multi-Modal Study:Consultation Document

2002 WS Atkins Planning Consultants

Yates, TJS Climatic Variability and Climate Change –Implications for Design and Construction

1998 Proceeding of the World BuildingCongress, Sweden 507-512

Zinyowera et al. (Eds) The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: AnAssessment of Vulnerability. A Special Report ofthe IPCC Working Group II

IPCC 1998


B. Website Addresses

The following is a selection of the vast amount of information available regarding climate change to be found on the internet.Several of these resources were used during the production of this study. Please note that while all links were correct as ofJanuary 2003, the authors cannot guarantee their long-term validity or the information contained thereon.

www.c-clif.co.uk/

www.chelt.ac.uk/cccf/

www.cla.org.uk/climatechange/

www.cru.uea.ac.uk/

www.cru.uea.ac.uk/link/

www.dft.gov.uk/itwp/paper/index.htm

www.dft.gov.uk/trans2010/plan/index.htm

www.eci.ox.ac.uk/monarch/

www.environment-agency.gov.uk/

www.europa.eu.int/comm/energy_transport/library/press-kit-lben.pdf

www.glos.ac.uk/

www.ipcc.ch/

www.oceannet.org/

www.phenology.org.uk/

www.southwestrda.org.uk/Downloads/development/raildoc.pdf

www.swarmms.org.uk/

www.swenvo.org.uk/

www.thamesvalleytransport.org.uk/index.htm

www.ukcip.org.uk/scenarios/

www.ukcip.org.uk/sectoral_pubs/sectoral.html

South West Climate Change Impacts Scoping Study Annex 4 Page 1 of 3

ANNEX 4

LIST OF RESPONDENTS

The following list contains the names of those organisations (and individuals whereappropriate) who provided responses upon which the scoping study has been based.We have chosen not to identify the different departments of large organisations such asLocal Authorities or the Environment Agency but where multiple responses have beenreceived we have identified these as follows:

* Denotes multiple responses received (separate individuals)** Denotes more than 5 responses received (separate individuals)

Our most sincere thanks go out to all these individuals and organisations, andalso to those who wished to remain unrecorded, or who may have beeninadvertently missed from this list, (to whom we extend our apologies). Withouttheir input this project could not have been undertaken.

1 Arup Associates

2 Associated British Ports

3 Association of Electricity Producers

4 Bournemouth & West Hampshire Water Plc5 Bristol City Council **

6 BTCV

7 Business in the Community8 Camborne School of Mines, University of Exeter

9 Cheltenham Borough Council *

10 Confederation of British Industries11 Cornwall College

12 Cornwall County Council **

13 Cornwall Farmers Ltd.14 Cornwall Sea Fisheries Committee

15 Cotswold Water Park

16 Countryside and Community Research Unit, University of Gloucestershire *17 CSMA Consultants Ltd. *18 Devon County Council **19 Devon Wildlife Trust20 District Councils especially in the SW **21 Dorset Coastal Forum **

22 Dorset County Council23 Eden Project Ltd

24 English Nature

25 Environment Agency **26 Exeter City Council

27 Exeter Enterprises Limited

28 Federation of Small Businesses29 Fielden Clegg Bradley, Architects


30 First

31 Forest Enterprise

32 Forest Research33 Forestry Commission

34 Gloucestershire County Council

35 Government Office for the South West (GOSW)36 Hanover Housing Association

37 Highways Agency

38 Housing Corporation SW Region office39 Independent Farmer/Landowner **40 Independent Horticulturalist

42 Institute of Chartered Foresters43 Institute of Grassland and Environmental Research (IGER)

44 London School of Tropical Medicine

45 Marine Biological Association (MBA)46 Moog Controls

47 National Farmers Union (NFU)

48 National Grid Company Plc49 National Trust *

50 NHS Medical Professional

41 Plymouth City Council51 Plymouth Marine Laboratory

52 Radfords Hotel

53 Rail Passengers’ Committee, Western England54 Railtrack

55 Renewable Energy Office for Cornwall (REOC)

56 Royal Agricultural College, Cirencester57 RSPB

58 Seale Hayne, University of Plymouth

59 Somerset Agricultural Advisory Service60 Somerset Moors and Levels Partnership

61 Somerset Trust for Sustainable Development *

62 South West Regional Assembly (SWRA) *63 South West Regional Development Agency (SWRDA)

64 South West Tourism *65 South West Water (SWW) *66 Stagecoach

67 Sustainability South West **

68 Sustrans69 Tamar Valley Service

70 TCPA

71 The Queen’s Harbour Master, Plymouth72 Torbay Council


73 UK Climate Impacts Programme *

74 University of Exeter *75 University of Gloucestershire *76 University of Plymouth *77 Vent-Axia

78 Wessex Water *79 Western Power Distribution

80 Wing of St. Mawes


ANNEX 5

QUESTIONNAIRE

This Annex contains an example of the questionnaire which was distributed (mainly electronically) to key actors in each of the Impact Domatext of the covering message.

South West Region Climate Change Impacts Partnership (SWRCCIP)

Agriculture and Horticulture Impact DomainThe attached questionnaire is intended to identify the way that potential changes in the climate will act upon yourbusiness, organisation or sector. The survey forms part of a study which constitutes the South West Region'scontribution to the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP). For more details go to www.ukcip.org.uk.The study will ultimately influence regional and national policy and form the base for future studies and policydevelopments. It will be a major contribution to the study if you could assist by spending a few minutes answering afew questions.

We have identified a series of ‘scenarios’ for different aspects of the weather (such as summertime temperature,flooding etc). The questionnaire invites you to consider how the impacts of these different scenarios can provideboth threats and opportunities for your organisation and its activities.

The scenarios themselves are relatively straightforward but it may take a while to consider how these might impactupon your business. It might help to start by thinking about how the impacts will affect your personal life, and the sortof changes that these might prompt. For example: an increase of summertime temperature is suggested.

One challenge that this represents might be that our houses become uncomfortably hot, both in the daytime and atnight. An adaptation response might be to install some form of cooling or air-conditioning. One opportunity mightbe that the summer evenings become more attractive for eating al fresco. An adaptation response might be toextend the patio, install some decking and not watch any more of Allan Titchmarch!!

The questionnaire has been designed to be completed as easily as possible. You can complete it either electronicallyand return it by e-mail ([email protected]) or complete it as paper copy and return by post (to the Freepost addressbelow). The first two pages deal with information about your organisation, your role within it, and the extent to whichyou are already aware of ‘adaptation’ to climate change. The following sections deal in turn with each of the differentscenarios.

We have found that it is important to wear your sectoral hat in answering the questions. For example, floodingarising from increased rainfall may be regarded as a problem for most of us, but for those in the business of flooddefences, pumps, and sustainable urban drainage it may represent a commercial opportunity. These are the sort ofissues that the questionnaire is intended to reveal.

On a technical note: 1. the boxes provided for you to insert your responses will enlarge automatically as you type. 2.for those that wish to complete the form on paper you may wish to expand these boxes before you print, or use thereverse side of the sheet for extra information.

Finally, we are keen to identify individuals or organisations who are particularly interested in, or concerned about,adaptation to climate change. If you do wish to be further involved please make contact with the research team. Thereis a box for this on the form.

Many thanks for spending time on the questionnaire.

Gerry Metcalf, Research Project Manager

SW Climate Change Impactsc/o GEMRU, University of GloucestershireFREEPOST SWC 2920Francis Close HallCHELTENHAMGlos, GL50 4ZZ

E [email protected])

T 01242 543389F 01242 543283

http://www.ukcip.org.uk/

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


A Information about you and your organisation

1 name

2 job title

3 name of company/organisation

4 postal address

5 postcode

6 e-mail address

7 telephone

8 the main activities of your business,your organisation or the sectorwithin which you work

9 your main role or responsibilitieswithin the organisation

B Your understanding of 'adaptation' to climate change

1 Were you aware of the concept of ‘adaptation’ to climate change before receiving this questionnaire?

‘adaptation’ means responding to the impacts of climate change already in the system'mitigation' means reducing greenhouse gas emissions, etc in order to limit climate change.

Please state ‘yes’ or ‘no’

B continued


2 If you were aware of the concept of adaptation, please indicate the source(s) through which youhave gained most understanding of the concept.

general media

government information(please specify where source is known)

national bodies/trade associations(please specify where source is known)

specialist publications(please specify where source is known)

headquarters of company/group etc

seminars/conferences etc

Others(please specify)

C your organisation's strategic response to climate change

1 Are you aware of policies in your organisation which address climate change issues ?


2 If so, do these policies refer to 'adaptation' strategies as well as ‘mitigation’ strategies?‘adaptation’ means responding to the impacts of climate change already in the system'mitigation' means reducing greenhouse gas emissions, etc to reduce climate change.


3 If so, please indicate the broad purpose and content of these policies

Please proceed to questions on climate change scenarios.


theme 1 summertime temperatureBelow is a possible future climate scenario. This shows possible changes from the average climate atthe end of the 20th Century (the thirty year period 1961 to 1990).Please indicate the challenges and opportunities that this presents to your organisation.new climate scenario is 2oC above the recent average

1 this new climate scenario will be similar to that experienced in the summer of 19972 similar conditions currently exist in West Central France.3 the average summertime temperature (1961-1990) in the SW was about 15oC

ADAPTATION CHALLENGESGiven the scenario outlined above, please record the main way in which any part of your organisation'soperations would be vulnerable to this climatic change. Please specify the degree of risk.

High Risk

Med Risk

Low Risk

Please indicate ways in which your organisation might adapt to this challenge.Please specify the timescale over which you will need to make these responses, or the lead-timenecessary to implement actions.

Short Term

Med Term

Long Term

ADAPTATION OPPORTUNITIESGiven the scenario outlined above, please record any new or increased opportunities for yourorganisation's operations arising from this climatic change.Please specify the degree of risk.

High Probability

Med Probability

Low Probability

Please indicate ways in which your organisation might adapt to these opportunitiesPlease specify the timescale over which you will need to make these responses, or the lead-time necessary toimplement actions.

Short Term

Med Term

Long Term


theme 2 wintertime temperatureBelow is a possible future climate scenario. This shows possible changes from the average climate atthe end of the 20th Century (the thirty year period 1961 to 1990).Please indicate the challenges and opportunities that this presents to your organisation.new climate scenario is 2.0oC above the recent average

1 this new climate scenario will be similar to that experienced in the winter of 19982 similar conditions currently exist in North East Spain3 the average wintertime temperature (1961-1990) in the SW was about 4.5oC

ADAPTATION CHALLENGESGiven the scenario outlined above, please record the main way in which any part of yourorganisation's operations would be vulnerable to this climatic change. Please specify degree of risk.

High Risk

Med Risk

Low Risk


Short Term

Med Term

Long Term

ADAPTATION OPPORTUNITIESGiven the scenario outlined above, please record any new or increased opportunities for yourorganisation's operations arising from this climatic changePlease specify the degree of risk.

High Probability

Med Probability

Low Probability

Please indicate ways in which your organisation might adapt to these opportunitiesPlease specify the timescale over which you will need to make these responses, or the lead-timenecessary to implement actions.

Short Term

Med Term

Long Term


theme 3 summertime precipitationBelow is a possible future climate scenario. This shows possible changes from the average climate atthe end of the 20th Century (the thirty year period 1961 to 1990).Please indicate the challenges and opportunities that this presents to your organisation.new climate scenario is 15% below recent average (down to 165mm)

1 this new climate scenario will be similar to that experienced in the summer of 19952 similar conditions currently exist in West France3 the average summertime precipitation (1961-1990) in the SW was about 200mm


High Risk

Med Risk

Low Risk


Short Term

Med Term

Long Term


High Probability

Med Probability

Low Probability


Short Term

Med Term

Long Term


theme 4 wintertime precipitation Note: Issues relating to flooding are dealt with in theme 6

Below is a possible future climate scenario. This shows possible changes from the average climate atthe end of the 20th Century (the thirty year period 1961 to 1990).Please indicate the challenges and opportunities that this presents to your organisation.new climate scenario is 15% above recent average (up to 350mm)

1 this new climate scenario will be similar to that experienced in the winter of 19952 similar conditions currently exist in West Portugal3 the average wintertime precipitation (1961-1990) in the SW was about 300mm


High Risk

Med Risk

Low Risk


Short Term

Med Term

Long Term


High Probability

Med Probability

Low Probability


Short Term

Med Term

Long Term


theme 5 sea levels and tidesThis theme (or climate variable) is more likely to apply only to certain activities or locations.Please indicate if indicate if you think this theme is relevant to your activities or location.


new climate scenario anticipates a 35cm rise in sea level1 this new climate scenario is a result of both climate change and land mass movements2 scenario anticipates that a tide level now occuring once every 100 years will occur once every 10 years


High Risk

Med Risk

Low Risk


Short Term

Med Term

Long Term

ADAPTATION OPPORTUNITIESGiven the scenario outlined above, please record any new or increased opportunities for yourorganisation's operations arising from this climatic change. Please specify the degree of risk.

High Probability

Med Probability

Low Probability


Short Term

Med Term

Long Term


theme 6 floodingWe have identified three different types of flooding which might arise from climate change.1. River Flooding 2. Standing Water and Slope Flooding 3. Drainage System OverloadPlease indicate if you think this theme is relevant to your activities or location.Please indicate the types of flooding to whichyou think your activities are exposed.

1.2.3.

Even if your activities are not directly exposed to flooding there may still be challenges or opportunitiesarising So, please complete the following sections.

ADAPTATION CHALLENGESGiven the scenario outlined above, please record the main way in which any part of your organisation'soperations would be vulnerable to this climatic change. lease specify the degree of risk.

High Risk

Med Risk

Low Risk


Short Term

Med Term

Long Term


High Probability

Med Probability

Low Probability


Short Term

Med Term

Long Term


theme 7 growing season and frostsWe have identified two broad changes which might arise from climate change impacts which could affectcrops and other horticultural activities.

1. the number of frosts during winter months will reduce by 60%2. the growing season will extend by between 5 and 20 days

If your activities are relevant to, or affected by these climatic changes please complete thefollowing sections.


High Risk

Med Risk

Low Risk


Short Term

Med Term

Long Term


High Probability

Med Probability

Low Probability


Short Term

Med Term

Long Term


theme 8 winds and stormsThis theme (or climate variable) is difficult to characterise, and in most cases the future scenarios do notshow significant changes in storminess and windiness, except perhaps in the autumn months.Nevertheless, the prospect of increases in ‘intensity’ or ‘frequency’ represent a serious threat to certainactivities or locations. Please indicate if you think this theme is relevant to your activities/location.

Please state ‘yes’ or ‘no’ for increasedintensity

Please state ‘yes’ or ‘no’ for increasedfrequency


High Risk

Med Risk

Low Risk


Short Term

Med Term

Long Term


High Probability

Med Probability

Low Probability


Short Term

Med Term

Long Term


E Other information about your organisation's strategicresponse to climate change

We are interested to include in our report particular examples of good practice concerningadaptation to climate change.

We are also interested to include ‘soundbites’, anecdotes or examples of adaptation issues thatare of particular relevance to your sector, or to the region, or both.

So, please can you use the spaces below to record any such examples of interest to the project.

We are also interested to include in our report particular examples of good practice concerningmitigation of climate change.

So, please can you use the space below to record any such examples of interest to the project.

Please indicate in the box below if you are willing to be contacted further in the project, andaspects of the study that are of particular interest to you and your organisation.

Many thanks for your assistance in completing the questionnaire

This report was commissioned by the South West Climate Change Impacts Partnership. It is astakeholder-led Scoping Study carried out on behalf of the Partnership.

This study is one of a number linked to the UK Climate Impacts Programme which helpsorganisations assess how they might be affected by climate change so they can prepare for itsimpacts.

The South West Climate Change Impacts Scoping Study was carried out by:

CCLIF CCLIF LtdCamborne School Of MinesUniversity of ExeterRedruth, Cornwall TR15 3SE

GEMRU University of GloucestershireFrancis Close HallSwindon RoadCheltenham GL50 4AZ

The study was supported by:

Atkins, Countryside Agency, Environment Agency, Met Office, South West Regional Assembly, South West Regional Development Agency, South West Water, Wessex Water

Further Information:

Further copies of ‘Warming to the idea’, the SW Region Climate Change Impact Scoping Study andit’s Summary Report can be found at www.oursouthwest.com/climate and atwww.ukcip.org.uk/south_west/south_west.html

For further information contactPete Grigorey, Environment Agency, Manley House, Kestrel Way, Exeter, EX2 7LQ. Tel: 01392 352315 Email [email protected]

The Steering Group for the study included representatives of:

Association of Electricity Producers, Bristol City Council, Business in the Community, Confederation ofBritish Industries, Devon Wildlife Trust, Environment Agency, Federation of Small Businesses,Government Office for the South West, National Farmers Union, National Trust, South West RegionalAssembly, Royal Agricultural College, South West Regional Development Agency, South West Tourism,Sustainability South West, Wessex Water, UK Climate Impacts Programme

Front cover illustration by Chelsea Chedgey, Northmoor Green School, Somerset

January 2003

Printed on 100% recycled paper

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