wheat forum - sagis · exports: weekly current season (2019/20: progr. 1 oct - 11 oct ‘19)...
TRANSCRIPT
25 October 2019
WHEAT FORUM
Nico HawkinsGeneral Manager
(National & International) – Marketing seasonWheat Supply & Demand
Marketing year
Estimate2018/19
Projection2019/20
'Mil ton 'Mil tonOpening stocks 721.5 575.5 270.6 265.5Production 1 847.1 1 771.2 733.4 763.5Imports 1 369.4 1 600.0 168.8 171.9Total use 3 287.6 (a) 3 296.1 (a) 738.5 757.5Exports 118.3 121.0 168.8 171.9Closing stocks 541.8 (b) 533.4 (b) 265.5 271.6(a) All stocks, regardless ow nership thereof, in commercial structures(b) Including producer w ithdraw als, seed and end users (SAGIS: 22 415 t, NAMC: 23 100 t)Source: SAGIS - 25 Oct 2019, NAMC: S&DEC - 30 Sep 2019, GMR - 26 Sep 2019
International (GMR)
2018/19
'000t
Projection2019/20
'000t
SAGIS NAMC
Oct - Sep Jul - Jun
Crop Estimate vs. Producer DeliveriesWheat Production, Retention & Deliveries
2019/20 * 2018/19 2017/18 Ton Ton Ton
CEC Production 1 695 470 1 868 000 1 535 000Less Retentions 35 000 33 000 30 000Total available 1 660 470 1 835 000 1 505 000SAGIS Deliveries 93 563 1 847 134 1 547 486Difference 1 566 907 -12 134 -42 486 * 2019/20: 1 Oct - 18 Sep '19Source: Sagis and CEC
Wheat: CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
0
250 000
500 000
750 000
1 000 000
1 250 000
1 500 000
1 750 000
2 000 000
2 250 000
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20Progr.
19/20Proj.
WHEAT: CEC ESTIMATE vs. SAGIS DELIVERIESCEC (Crop Est.) Prod deliveries (SAGIS) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield)
S&DEC
Ton Yield
Wheat Imports & Exports (Raw material)
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20Progr.
19/20Proj.
WHEAT (RAW MATERIAL) : IMPORTS & EXPORTS
Imports Exports S&DEC
Ton
Wheat Imports: Major origin of imports for RSA(2018/19: 1 Oct ‘18 – 30 Sep ‘19)
Czech Rep.110 63612.48%
Russia401 14945.25%
Canada85 3489.63%
Ukraine49 5045.58%
USA140 12715.81%
Other99 80711.26%
RSA: Wheat Imports per Country2018/19
Total: t1 355 881
Wheat Imports for Other Countries
Russia88 27443.51%
Germany31 93015.74%
Ukraine15 1327.46% Lithuania
26 00212.82%
Latvia13 4806.64%
USA12 0145.92%
Other16 0437.91%
Wheat Imports for other countries
Total: t
2018/19
202 875
(2018/19: 1 Oct ‘18 – 30 Sep ‘19)
Wheat Imports per Harbour(2018/19: 1 Oct ‘18 – 30 Sep ‘19)
Cape Town98 5966.33%
Durban1 349 640
86.58%
East London49 3423.17%
Port Elizabeth42 6282.73%
Richards Bay18 5501.19%
Wheat Weekly Imports per Harbour
Total Imports per Harbour: t1 558 756
Wheat Imports & Exports(2018/19: 1 Oct ‘18 – 30 Sep ‘19)
Wheat
Total Imports (RSA + Other) 1 558 756 t 2 173 757 tNumber of Ships 32 60Number of Countries 9 11Number of Ports offloaded 5 5Harbour facilities visited 110 188Average per ship 48 711 t 36 229 tLargest ship Ultra Crimson - Lithuania 56 563 t Ionic Unicorn - Latvia 55 973 tSmallest ship Diamond Land - USA 6 320 t Kingsrest - USA 296 tBussiest month September '19 21 Sep & Oct '18 23
Oct '18 - Sep '19 Oct '17 - Sep '18
Wheat Exports: Major export destinations(2018/19: 1 Oct ‘18 – 30 Sep ‘19)
Botswana30 02337.21%
Lesotho13 66216.93%
Namibia9 750
12.08%
Zimbabwe27 24833.77%
Wheat Exports per country- 2018/19 -
Total exports: t 107 943
Wheat Imports & Exports: Weekly Current season(2019/20: Progr. 1 Oct - 11 Oct ‘19)
2019/20 Exports1 Oct - 11 Oct '19 762
Canada16 57012.25%
Russia44 64733.01%
Germany16 17511.96%
Lithuania41 30030.53%
Ukraine9 5647.07%
Poland7 0145.19%
RSA: Wheat Imports per Country2019/20
Total: t135 270
Wheat: Consumption
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
WHEAT: PROCESSED
Human consumption Animal feed S&DEC
Ton
19/20Proj.
Wheat: Stocks
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
900 000
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
WHEAT: OPENING & ENDING STOCKS
Opening stock Ending stock S&DEC
Ton
19/20Proj.
Wheat: 2019/20 Marketing year(Progr. 1 Oct - 11 Oct ‘19)
1 695 470
93 563 135 270762
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
WHEAT: 2019/20 MARKETING YEAR (1 - 18 Oct '19)
CEC Prod. Deliveries Imports Processed Exports
TonTon
S&DECS&DEC S&DEC S&DEC1 771 170 1 600 000 3 273 000 121 000
Price movement
Wheat: Prices JSE nearby contract
3600
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
2019
/01/
0220
19/0
1/12
2019
/01/
2220
19/0
2/01
2019
/02/
1120
19/0
2/21
2019
/03/
0320
19/0
3/13
2019
/03/
2320
19/0
4/02
2019
/04/
1220
19/0
4/22
2019
/05/
0220
19/0
5/12
2019
/05/
2220
19/0
6/01
2019
/06/
1120
19/0
6/21
2019
/07/
0120
19/0
7/11
2019
/07/
2120
19/0
7/31
2019
/08/
1020
19/0
8/20
2019
/08/
3020
19/0
9/09
2019
/09/
1920
19/0
9/29
2019
/10/
0920
19/1
0/19
SAFEX Wheat Prices- Future prices (Dec 2019) -R/ton
Wheat: Price movementsComparison JSE Commodities (Dec and Mar contracts)
2019/10/22 2019/09/23 2018/10/22
Dec 2018 4486.00 -0.93 4528.00 0.56 4461.00Mar 2019 4588.00 -1.04 4636.00 0.07 4585.00Source: SAFEX
Price Price Price (a)
% Monthon Month
% Yearon Year
Wheat: Price movementsComparison KCBT (Dec and Mar contracts)
2019/10/22 2019/09/23 2018/10/22
Dec 2018 154.76 0.38 154.18 -17.02 186.51Mar 2019 159.69 1.31 157.63 -18.37 195.62Source: KCBT
Price Price Price% Monthon Month
% Yearon Year
Wheat: Price movementsIndicative Import parity prices
US US Argentine EU Germany RussiaHRW DNS Trigo Pan B quality 12.50%
$/t $/t $/t $/t $/tFOB value 214.00 275.00 230.00 205.00 209.00Freight rates 32.00 32.00 26.00 27.00 34.00Insurance (0.3% of FOB) 0.64 0.83 0.69 0.62 0.63COST, INSURANCE & FREIGHT (CIF) $/t 246.64 307.83 256.69 232.62 243.63
Converted to R/t R/$ Exchange rate on: 2019/10/22 14.7396 14.7396 14.7396 14.7396 14.7396
R/t R/t R/t R/t R/tCOST, INSURANCE & FREIGHT (CIF) 3635.37 4537.29 3783.51 3428.73 3591.01 Financing cost 29.88 37.29 31.10 28.18 29.52COST, INSURANCE, FREIGHT & FINANCING 3665.25 4574.58 3814.61 3456.91 3620.53
Discharging costDurban (Mainly spout method) 202.93 202.93 202.93 202.93 202.93 Import tariff on Wheat 664.70 664.70 664.70 664.70 664.70
FREE ON RAIL (FOR)Durban harbour 4532.88 5442.21 4682.24 4324.54 4488.16Railage cost Durban to Randfontein 517.52 517.52 517.52 517.52 517.52
Delivered Durban to Randfontein (2019/10/22) 5050.40 5959.73 5199.76 4842.06 5005.68
SAFEX spot price (2019/10/22) 4434.00 4434.00 4434.00 4434.00 4434.00Delivered Durban to Randfontein: (2018/10/23) 5051.33 5414.75 4964.38 4950.04 4935.12
2019/10/22
Wheat: Price movementsIndicative Export parity prices
US HRW US DNS 14%Wheat Wheat
Gulf PNWOct '19 Oct '19
$/t $/tFOB Gulf value 214.00 275.00SA fob price 214.00 275.00 R/$ Exchange rate on: 2019/10/22 14.74 14.74
R/t R/tFOB Gulf value 3 154.27 4 053.39Marketing costs:Financing (Prime rate 10.25% - 30 days) 25.93 33.32Railage:Randfontein – Durban harbour 517.52 517.52Loading costs: Durban Harbour (Mainly spout method) 213.20 213.20Export realisationRandfontein 2 397.62 3 289.35
SAFEX spot price (2019/10/22) 2 867.33 3 223.68Export realisation Randfontein (2018/10/23) 2 259.31 3 055.80
2019/10/22
Wheat: Price movementsSARS FOB prices
2018/19Progr.
Oct-Aug2017/18 2016/17
Imports Quantity(Ton)
1 223 485 5 078 986 1 717 286
Total value of imports
FOB value
(R'000)3 943 764 5 078 986 4 336 055
Value per ton FOBR/Ton
3 223.38 1 000.00 2 524.95
Source: SARS
Wheat - Other1001.99
(2018/19: Progr. 1 Oct ‘18 – 31 Aug ‘19)
SAGIS Imports: 1 355 881 t
Wheat Imports: SARS FOB prices per country:Wheat Other: 1001.99(2018/19: 1 Oct ‘18 – 31 Aug ‘19)
Country TonFOB value
R'000FOB
Rand/tonArgentina 57 894.550 187 742.04 3 242.83Canada 78 184.658 263 291.88 3 367.56Czech Republic 95 838.717 317 458.80 3 312.43Germany 362 098.264 1 199 856.05 3 313.62India 2.100 6.07 2 891.43Latvia 53 001.412 170 124.78 3 209.82Lithuania 133 147.983 429 755.97 3 227.66Mexico 0.193 0.28 1 458.23Namibia 0.013 0.10 7 692.31Nigeria 0.153 0.27 1 771.24Poland 2.900 25.24 8 703.45Russian Federation 273 232.568 822 603.88 3 010.64Swaziland 0.002 0.02 11 428.57Sweden 0.040 0.07 1 700.00Turkey 0.467 2.81 6 010.71Ukraine 35 745.350 116 954.68United States 134 335.969 435 939.25 3 245.14Zimbabwe 0.063 1.52 24 158.73Total 1 223 485.402 3 943 763.707 3 223.38Progr. Oct '18 - Aug '19
Wheat: Price movementsSARS FOB prices
2018/19Progr.
Oct-Aug2017/18 2016/17
Exports Quantity(Ton)
105 529 50 335 69 431
Total value of exports
FOB value
(R'000)502 978 210 370 318 452
Value per ton FOBR/Ton
4 766.24 4 179.44 4 586.58
Source: SARS
Wheat - Other1001.99
(2018/19: Progr. 1 Oct ‘18 – 31 Aug ‘19)
SAGIS Exports: 107 943 t
Wheat Exports: SARS FOB prices per country:Wheat Other: 1001.99(2018/19: 1 Oct ‘18 –31 Aug ‘19)
Country TonFOB value
R'000FOB
Rand/tonBotswana 26 154.320 118 418.18 4 527.67Canada 104.540 1 054.14 10 083.58Congo, Dem Rep Of 0.013 2.82 224 264.12Eswatini(Swaziland) 6 441.052 27 818.36 4 318.91Lesotho 17 560.830 77 160.31 4 393.89Mozambique 0.062 2.07 33 387.10Namibia 6 864.492 37 956.72 5 529.43Sweden 20.000 145.29 7 264.60United Kingdom 21.000 118.21 5 629.19United States 0.006 0.04 7 166.67Unknown 528.000 2 484.77 4 706.00Zambia 22 477.961 96 191.58 4 279.37Zimbabwe 25 356.979 141 625.47 5 585.27Total 105 529.254 502 977.948 4 766.24Progr. Oct '17 - Aug '18Source: SARS
Products
Wheat Products (Manufactured, Imported & Exported)(2018/19: 1 Sep ‘18 – 30 Aug ’19 – 12 months)
Manufactured Imported Exported
Cake Flour 951 721 5 649 1 073 28.9Self-Raising Flour 19 167 46 13 0.6White Bread Flour 1 130 835 11 066 5 208 34.3Brown Bread Flour 398 393 8 339 8 208 12.1Other Flour (Industrial) 110 727 0 66 3.4Whole Wheat Meal 5 161 0 17 0.2Bran 670 302 5 681 1 176 20.3Semolina 7 945 0 0 0.2Total 3 294 251 30 781 15 761 100.0
Whole Wheat Milled 3 274 422 Whole wheat milled = Processed for human consumption
Diffs milled and products -19 829 Processed for gristingProduct exports
% Bran 20
Wheaten ProductsMarketing year: Sep 2018 - Aug 2019
% of Total ManufacturedTons
Wheaten Products: Per Capita Consumption(12 months: Sep ‘18 – Aug ’19)
Per capita consumption Total Wheatenproducts
Total Pan bakedbread
Total Maize products
Total Oilseedsproducts
Ton Kg Ton Ton
Manufactured 3 294 251 1 474 800 288 3 657 457 2 086 605+ Imports 30 781 4 750 1 434 427- Exports -13 092 -77 958 -66 442Total "consumed" 3 311 940 1 474 800 288 3 584 249 3 454 590Total population 58 780 000 58 780 000 58 780 000 58 780 000
Kg Kg Kg Kg
Per capita consumption (Kg) 56.34 25.09 60.98 58.77Note: Maize = Total less chop
12 months (1 Sep '18 - 31 Aug '19)
Panbaked bread vs Wheat Processed: Historic Info1948/49 – 2018/19
0
500 000 000
1 000 000 000
1 500 000 000
2 000 000 000
2 500 000 000
3 000 000 000
3 500 000 000
1948
/4919
50/51
1952
/5319
54/55
1956
/5719
58/59
1960
/6119
62/63
1964
/6519
66/67
1968
/6919
70/71
1972
/7319
74/75
1976
/7719
78/79
1980
/8119
82/83
1984
/8519
86/87
1988
/8919
90/91
1992
/9319
94/95
1996
/9719
98/99
2000
/0120
02/03
2004
/0520
06/07
2008
/0920
10/11
2012
/1320
14/15
2016
/1720
18/19
Bread: Panbaked bread (Kg) versus Wheat Processed (Kg)White bread Brown bread Total Panbaked bread Wheat processed
I:Wheaten ProdHist Info
2 345 000 Ton
1 619 818 Ton
1 137 966 Ton
I:Wheaten ProdHist Info
2 979 812 Ton
1 474 800 Ton
481 851 Ton
745 334 Ton
729 466 Ton
Historic Info: Per capita use of whole wheat & pan baked bread (1949/50 – 2018/19)
2934
42
59
37
37
2631
38
53
25
25
57 60
51
73
89
56 56
56
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1949
/50
1951
/52
1953
/54
1955
/56
1957
/58
1959
/60
1961
/62
1963
/64
1965
/66
1967
/68
1969
/70
1971
/72
1973
/74
1975
/76
1977
/78
1979
/80
1981
/82
1983
/84
1985
/86
1987
/88
1989
/90
1991
/92
1993
/94
1995
/96
1997
/98
1999
/00
2001
/02
2003
/04
2005
/06
2007
/08
2009
/10
2011
/12
2013
/14
2015
/16
2017
/18
Bread units Bread Kg/head Whole wheat Kg/head
I:Wheaten Prod Hist Info - Maize: Maize Prod Hist Info
Per capita use of Whole Wheat & Pan Baked Bread
Historic Info: Wheat vs Maize : Whole Grain per capita consumption1949/50 – 2018/19
135131
8088
59
77
89
5256
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1970
/71
1972
/73
1974
/75
1976
/77
1978
/79
1980
/81
1982
/83
1984
/85
1986
/87
1988
/89
1990
/91
1992
/93
1994
/95
1996
/97
1998
/99
2000
/01
2002
/03
2004
/05
2006
/07
2008
/09
2010
/11
2012
/13
2014
/15
2016
/17
2018
/19
Maize Whole Grain Wheat Whole Grain
kg/head
Per Capita Consumption
Wheaten Products : Bread Flour (Ton)
White1 130 835
68.74%
Brown398 39324.22%
Whole wheat5 1610.31%
Other Flour (Industrial)
110 7276.73%
Bread Flour- Ton -
Total: Bread Flour: ton1 645 116
Sep '18 - Aug
(2018/19: Progr. 1 Sep ‘18 – 31 Aug ’19 – 12 months)
Wheaten Products: Pan baked bread (Units)(Progr. Sep ‘18 – Aug ’19:12 months)
2018/19 Marketing year: Progr. Sep '18 - Aug '19
UnitsWHITE BREAD400g 1 590 419 0.1600g 268 615 953 11.3700g 884 432 169 37.2Other 12 980 981 0.5White Bread (Total Units) 1 167 619 522 49.2BROWN BREAD400g 805 478 0.0600g 336 713 338 14.2700g 817 829 608 34.4Other 17 810 414 0.8Brown Bread (Total Units) 1 173 158 838 49.4WHOLE WHEAT400g 13 989 0.0600g 608 607 0.0700g 6 042 277 0.3Other 22 653 443 1.0Whole Wheat (Total Units) 29 318 316 1.2OTHER400g 47 258 0.0600g 357 992 0.0700g 112 866 0.0Other 3 728 163 0.2Other (Total Units) 4 246 279 0.2
Total 2 374 342 955 100.0
Pan baked bread manufactured % of Total
Wheaten Products: Pan baked bread per type
White1 167 619 522
49.2%
Brown1 173 158 838
49.4%
Whole wheat29 318 316
1.2%
Other4 246 279
0.2%
Pan Baked Bread per type
- Units -
Total:Ton
Units2 374 342 9551 560 652
Sep '18 - Aug '19
(Sep ‘18 – Aug ’19: 12 months)
Wheat: Price movementsWheaten products: Year on year price changes
2019 2018 2017Price Price Price
R R RWhite Bread 700g 13.73 4.49 13.14 0.84 13.03Brown Bread 700g 12.51 7.29 11.66 -1.60 11.85Cake Flour 1kg 12.14 -1.70 12.35 -1.28 12.51Bread Flour 1kg 13.14 -2.52 13.48 3.53 13.02Source: SA Stats
September
% Yearon Year
% Yearon Year
Wheaten products: Price movement Index(Jan ‘08 – Sep ‘19)
0102030405060708090
100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250
Jan-
08M
ay-0
8Se
p-08
Jan-
09M
ay-0
9Se
p-09
Jan-
10M
ay-1
0Se
p-10
Jan-
11M
ay-1
1Se
p-11
Jan-
12M
ay-1
2Se
p-12
Jan-
13M
ay-1
3Se
p-13
Jan-
14M
ay-1
4Se
p-14
Jan-
15M
ay-1
5Se
p-15
Jan-
16M
ay-1
6Se
p-16
Jan-
17M
ay-1
7Se
p-17
Jan-
18M
ay-1
8Se
p-18
Jan-
19M
ay-1
9Se
p-19
WHEATEN PRODUCTS INDEX
Bread White 700 gr Bread Brown 700 gr
Bread White 600 gr Bread Brown 600 gr
Flour Bread 1 Kg Flour Cake 1 Kg
SAFEX Spot price Wheat
Index:233.11
184.55
206.60
214.52
Index:233.83
187.31
161.01
%
General
Transport by Component
Wheat Maize
Wheat: Co-workers (Whole Grain)
Processors68
Harbour silo owners
15
Traders45
End consumers1
Storers18
Wheat: Firms registered with SAGIS (Whole Grain)
Total firms: 147
Wheat: Co-workers (Products)
Bakery groups5
0.60%Supermarket
Groups6
0.72%
Independent Supermarkets
73888.28%
Independent Bakeries
445.26%
Wheat Milling Ind.38
4.55%
Import/Export5
0.60%
Wheat: Firms registered with SAGIS (Products)
Total firms: 836
AcknowledgementBoard of Directors
The Winter Cereal Industry is represented by:
Mr Tato MakeDirector
Ms Mariana PurnellVice-Chairperson
Mr Geoff Penny(Alternate)
Dr John PurchaseChairperson
The following parties makes it possible to fulfil SAGIS’ commitments:
Winter Cereal Trust Wheat Forum Relevant Associations Board of Directors Co-workers Staff
AcknowledgementGratitude
Note: This presentation is available on SAGIS’
website under Presentations