why modern? why now? · david anderson is a thought leader in managing creative knowledge workers....

[email protected] @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.

Presenter:David J. Anderson

CEO Lean Kanban Inc.

Lean Kanban UKLondon

October 2013Release 1.0

What does modern

mean and what is

enabling new ways of

managing in a new century

Why Modern?Why now?

http://leankanban.com


Modern in Music



Progressive but not Modern!



Modern



Modern in Art



Photography

The arrival of photography heralded an end to several hundred years of representational painting

Photography was a discontinuous innovation



Impressionism – a new beginning



Modern in Science



Newtonian physics was out and the era of Quantum Mechanics arrived

Werner Heisenberg

JamesClerk-Maxwell

Albert Einstein

Niels Bohr



The Drucker Challenge



Drucker’s Challenge in 1999

Can we improve the productivity of knowledge workers by a factor of fifty times during the twenty first century?



Where might a 50x improvement come from?

Delivered

Poolof

Ideas

F

H E

C A

I

Committed

ReadyFor

Delivery

GD

GYPB

DE MN

2 ∞

P1

AB

Lead Time

Ongoing

Development Testing

Done Verification Acceptance3 3

Waiting Waiting WaitingWorking

* Hakan Forss, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2013** 2% reported by Zsolt Fabok, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2012

Working

∞∞Flow efficiency measures the

percentage of total lead time is spent actually adding value (or

knowledge) versus waitingFlow efficiency% = Work Time x 100%

Lead TimeFlow efficiencies of 1-5% are

commonly reported*, ** Multitasking means time spent in working columns is often waiting

time

Waiting



Modern Management



We stand on the verge of a revolution in modern management

New science, new thinking and new technology is enabling us to implement new ways of managing creative work for the businesses of the 21stCentury



Breakthroughs in Understanding humans

The big innovation in understanding humans is the emergence of neuroscience in the past 25 yearsWhile significant advances in sociology have given us models for understanding tribal behavior in the workplaceAdvances in complexity science have given us ways to understand and react to situations where the outcome is emergent and the starting conditions matter



The Quantum Era of Management

Management has been rooted in the philosophy of determinism and reductionism. It's 18th Century in origin. Recent trends have seen us move to a more holistic systems thinking approach, and a probabilistic and statistical approach to risk and decision making

These changes parallel the move from Newtonian Physics to Quantum Mechanics in natural philosophy



New technologies enable a new form

New technologies such as the humble Post-It note as well as tracking & simulation software, flat panel touch-sensitive displays, ubiquitous broadband Internet available globally, high definition web cams, and video over IP are just some of the technologies enabling us to embrace a new form of management



Social Capital Reaps Rewards

This new management involves understanding people - trusting them, empowering themBut it is an empowerment without loss of controlIt is autonomy without loss of governanceIt's humane without being anarchistic



The System & Environment Matter

Modern management also recognizes that the system and the environment matterIndividual performance isn't enoughReductionism to the smallest unit - the worker - local optimization - make each worker produce as much as possible - isn't the answerThe complex system of which the worker is just a single part must be designed and managedUnderstanding and affecting the outcome from complex systems of work is the key to delivering on Drucker's challenge.Simply motivating people isn't enough!



Conclusion



The Form Must Change!

The key idea with any modern movement is that a discontinuous innovation causes the form to change!

Modern Management contains the idea that we must do things differently. View the world through a different lens. Frame and make decisions differently.

To deliver on Drucker’s challenge we must understand the complex nature of modern work using new models & new science. We must use this understanding to make better decisions



Thank you!



Presenter:David J. Anderson

CEO Lean Kanban Inc.

Lean Kanban UKLondon

October 2013Release 1.0

Kanbanand evolutionary management

Lessons we can learn from Bruce Lee’s journey in martial arts



Bruce Lee’s Journey in Martial Arts



Bruce Lee rejected traditional teaching and styles of Chinese martial arts

• There are some parallels in the story of Bruce Lee and the emergence of his approach to Kung Fu

• Lee rejected the idea of following a particular style of Chinese Martial Arts



Snake

Monkey

Mantis

Tiger

Kung Fu Panda simplified the art to only four styles



There are in fact very many styles…



“Dry land swimming” provides a false sense of capability

• The only way to learn is to train with a live opponent

• Lee rejected the many styles of martial arts for various reasons, mainly that they gave the practitioners a false sense of capability, putting them at risk in real combat situations

• He was against Kata (learning patterns without an opponent) and described them in derogatory terms such as "dry land swimming.“



Lee wanted to start from first principles and core concepts

Four ranges of combat• Kicking• Punching• Trapping• Grappling

*Apparently still called the Five Ways, there are actually now six **with the later inclusion of SAA**The fact that The Five Ways has six elements is evidence of evolution in action***Incorporated core ideas such as "center line" and single fluid motion from Wing Chun and parrying from Epee Fencing********Not a Chinese Martial Art and hence evidence of "no limitation as limitation"

Five* Ways of Attack***• Single Direct Attack (SDA)• Attack By Combination (ABC)• Progressive Indirect Attack

(PIA)• (Hand) Immobilization Attack

(HIA)• Attack by Drawing (ABD)• Single Angle Attack (SAA)



Lee’s approach still needed a name

• He named his approachJeet Kune Do - the way of the intercepting fist - after one of the practices taught in his method

• He was quick to point out that it was just a name, a way of communicating a set of ideas. He was passionate that practitioners shouldn't get hung up on the name or the inclusion of any one move or action.



Jeet Kune Do

Using no way as way

Having no limitation as limitation



Jeet Kune Do encourages development of a uniquely personal style

• a framework from which to pick & develop a personal style

• an evolutionary approach where adoption of maneuvers is learned & reinforced by training with an opponent

• Nothing was sacred

"absorb that which is useful“

discard the remainder



Training with an opponent provides the core feedback loop to drive adaptation

Lee pursued ever more elaborate approaches to protected real combat training to enable the closed loop learning that was core to the evolutionary nature of JKD



Kata are not adaptive

In comparison with JKD, patterned styles of martial arts taught with "kata" were open loop and not adaptive. There is no learning from practicing kata



Martial Arts viewed through a Cynefin* Lens

Simple

ComplicatedComplex

Chaotic

Best Practice

Good PracticesEmergent Practices

Novel PracticesIndividual

Kata

PatternedStyles

Jeet KuneDo

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin



Lee’s genius was recognizing hand-to-hand combat is an unordered problem

• Patterned styles are perfectly good for controlled circumstances such as competition

• Sporting combat is an ordered domain problem

• Street fighting is not orderly and therefore emergent practice is required

• Unordered problem required a new philosophy



Motivation for the Kanban Method



Traditional Change is an A to B process

• A is where you are now. B is a destination.• B is either defined (from a methodology definition)• or designed (by tailoring a framework or using a model

based approach such as VSM* or TOC TP**)• To get from A to B, a change agency*** will guide a

transition initiative to install B into the organization

***either an internal process group or external consultants

CurrentProcess Future

Process

Defined

Designed

transition

* Value stream mapping, ** Theory of Constraints Thinking Processes



Change initiatives fail (even) more often than projects

Change initiatives often fail (aborted) or produce lack luster results

They fail to institutionalize resulting in regression back to old behavior



Daniel Kahneman has given us a simple model for how we process information

Daniel Kahneman

System 1Sensory PerceptionPattern Matching

System 2Logical Inference

Engine

Learning byExperience

Learning from theory

FASTBut slow to learn

SLOWBut fast to learn



How we process change…

Daniel Kahneman

Silicon-basedlife form

Carbon-basedlife form

I logically evaluate change using System 2

I adapt quickly

I feel change emotionally using System 1

I adapt slowly



Adopting new processes challenges people psychologically & sociologically

• New roles attack identity• New responsibilities using new

techniques & practices threaten self-esteem & social status

• Most people resist most change because individually they have more to lose than gain

• It is safer to be conservative and stick to current practices and avoid shaking up the current social hierarchy

• Only the brave, the reckless or the desperate will pursue grand changes



The Kanban Method…

• Rejects the traditional approach to change

• Believes, it is better to avoid resistance than to push harder against it• Don’t install new processes• Don’t reorganize

• Is designed for carbon-based life forms• Evolutionary change that is

humane



The Kanban Method…

• Catalyzes improvement through use of kanbansystems and visual boards*

• Takes its name from the use of kanban but it is just a name

• Anyone who thinks Kanban is just about kanban (boards & systems) is truly mistaken

*also known as "kanban" in Chinese and in Japanese when written with Chinese characters



The Kanban Method is a new approach to improvement

Kanban is a

method

without methodology



Water flows around the rock

“be like water”

the rock represents resistance



The Kanban Method



Kanban should be like water*

In change management, resistance is from the people involvedand it is always emotional (system 1)

To flow around the rock, we must learn how to avoid emotional resistance

* http://joecampbell.wordpress.com/2009/05/13/be-like-water/



Principles behind the Kanban Method

• Start with what you do now• Agree to pursue evolutionary change• Initially, respect roles, responsibilities and job

titles• Encourage acts of leadership at all levels

The first 3 principles were specifically chosen to address System 1 objections, to flow around the rock of emotional resistance in humans



The Kanban Lens

Kanban asks us to view the world of work through a new lens

• Creative work is service-oriented• Service delivery involves workflow• Workflow involves a series of knowledge discovery

activities

Kanban would be less applicable if a service-orientated view of work were difficult to conceive or the work was sufficiently new that a definable series of knowledge discovery activities had not emerged



6 Practices Enable Process Evolution

The Kanban Method

VisualizeLimit Work-in-progressManage FlowMake Policies ExplicitImplement Feedback LoopsImprove Collaboratively, Evolve Experimentally

(using models & the scientific method)



Start with what you do now

• The Kanban Method evolved with the principle that it “should be like water” - enable change while avoiding sources of resistance

• With Kanban you start with what you do now, and "kanbanize" it, catalyzing the evolutionary process into action. Changes to processes in use will occur

• Evaluating whether a change is truly an improvement is done using fitness criteria that evaluate an external outcome



Fitness Criteria



Fitness criteria are metrics that measure observable external outcomes

• Fitness criteria are metrics that measure things customers or other external stakeholders value• Delivery time• Quality• Predictability• Safety (conformance to

regulatory requirements)• or metrics that value actual

outcomes such as• customer satisfaction• employee satisfaction



Net Promoter Score is a Fitness Evaluator but is it the only metric we need?

• Steve Denning has proposedthat Net Promoter Score(NPS) is the only metric thatbusiness should care about

• NPS is interesting becauseit is a fitness evaluator. Itwill indicate whether a business (or product) is likely to survive & thrive

• But is it the only metric we need?

Steve Denning



Net Promoter Score is a way of evaluating customer satisfaction

• In a general sense and at an abstract level NPS tells us whether customers like what we offer but we cannot know what they truly care about

• For the abstract problem of, “Can we measure customer satisfaction?” NPV is a reasonably good measure, if used properly



The problem with Net Promoter Score is that it doesn’t tell you what to do!

• Net Promoter Score (if used properly) will tell you whether your product or service is likely to continue selling

• However, it doesn’t give you any clues about what to do or how to improve

• If NPS is your only metric you’re left to randomly experiment to generate a higher score

• Like biological evolution, random mutation is expensive, takes a long time & involves luck



Can we be smarter by using better fitness criteria than NPS?

• If we have a service-oriented view of the world, and want to evaluate service delivery then we already know what customers care about• Lead time• Quality• Predictability• Safety (or conformance to regulatory reqs)



If we order a pizza we know what we care about…

• Fast delivery• lead time from order to

delivery• Accuracy and quality

• Pepperoni not Hawaiian• Still warm on delivery

• Predictable Delivery• If they say “ready in 30

minutes”, we want delivery in 25-35 minutes



If we need a medical procedure…

• Short waiting time• Queuing time from diagnosis to procedure

• Short procedure & recovery time• Fast procedure, fast recovery time, implies minimally

invasive surgery and use of technology to reduce the craft input and eliminate variability

• Predictability of schedule & outcome• Procedure should proceed as scheduled• Outcome should have high probability of success

• Safe• Low risk of complications• Regulatory health & safety procedures followed



Validate Fitness Criteria with real customers

• It is necessary to keep checking that the fitness criteria we are measuring do indeed matter to customers

• Variation in what matters to different customers provides the opportunity to segment demand and offer different classes of service within your kanban system• e.g. Will you pay extra to have your pizza delivered

faster?



Which system is fitter?

We don’t know!

System B is faster but without understanding customer expectations, both may be fit enough

02468

101214

5 10 15 20 25 30 40 45 55 65More

Lead Time (Days)

System A

Frequency

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5 10 15 20 25 30 More

Lead Time in Days

System B

Frequency

Mean 17 days Mean 12 days



Measuring delivery against expectation

02468

101214

5 10 15 20 25 30 40 45 55 65More

Lead Time (Days)

System A

Frequency

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-25 -20 -5 0 5 10 20 30 35 40More

Lead Time Expectation Spread (Days)

System A

Frequency

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5 10 15 20 25 30 More

Lead Time in Days

System B

Frequency

05

1015202530354045

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 More

Lead Time Expectation Spread (Days)

System B

Frequency

Mean 17 days Mean 12 days

System B is clearly fitter!

System B delivers 5/7 within expectationsSystem A only delivers 3/7 within expectations



Business Risks, Fitness Criteria & Classes of Service should all align

• If your kanban system is designed properly the classes of service you are offering should align with the true business risks in the domain

• And the metrics being used to evaluate system capability, should be fitness criteria that are derived from the business risk being managed

• For example, cost of delay requires us to measure lead time



Assessing fitness to pursue ashort Shelf-Life strategy

Short(days, weeks,

months)

Medium(months,quarters,

1-2 years)

Long(years,

decades)

Lead

Tim

e

Short

Long

Del

iver

y

Business Agility

Rep

leni

shm

ent

Frequent

Seldom

Frequent

Seldom

Pre

dict

abili

ty

High

Low

Are our business agility & predictability fit

enough for our strategy?

Kanban system dynamics

If we plan to pursue short shelf-life opportunities, we must measure predictability, lead time, replenishment & delivery frequency as fitness criteria. Expectations are set based on our chosen strategy to pursue short

shelf-life opportunities



Evolutionary change has no defined end point

EvolvingProcess

Rollforward

Rollback

InitialProcess

Future process is emergent

EvaluateFitness

EvaluateFitness

EvaluateFitness

EvaluateFitness

EvaluateFitness

We don’t know the end-point but we do know our emergent

process is fitter!



Kanban viewed through a Cynefin* Lens

Simple

ComplicatedComplex

Chaotic

Best Practice

Good PracticesEmergent Practices

Novel PracticesSimpleKanbanSystem

DeepKanbanSystem

KanbanMethod

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin

Single work typeSingle class of service

Multiple work typesMultiple classes of serviceKanban systems alone

aren’t enough in the unordered domain



Enabling Evolutionary Management



Institutionalize feedback systems to enable evolutionary change

OperationsReview

SystemCapabilityReview

StandupMeeting

manager to subordinate(s) (both 1-1 and 1-team)



Disintermediate!Risks, fitness criteria & classes of service should

be explicit & transparent

OperationsReview

SystemCapabilityReview

StandupMeeting

manager to subordinate(s) (both 1-1 and 1-team)

Expose risk, classes of service & fitness criteria

at all 3 levels of feedback

Lead timeQualityPredictability





Is there room for improvement?

Delivered

Poolof

Ideas

F

H E

C A

I

Committed

ReadyFor

Delivery

GD

GYPB

DE MN

2 ∞

P1

AB

Lead Time

Ongoing

Development Testing

Done Verification Acceptance3 3

Waiting Waiting WaitingWorking

* Hakan Forss, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2013** 2% reported by Zsolt Fabok, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2012

Working

∞∞Flow efficiency measures the

percentage of total lead time is spent actually adding value (or

knowledge) versus waitingFlow efficiency% = Work Time x 100%

Lead TimeFlow efficiencies of 1-5% are

commonly reported*, ** Multitasking means time spent in working columns is often waiting

time

Waiting



Other metrics should only be used as input to models to drive improvement

• Flow efficiency will help us identify wasteful delay

• Time blocked and blocker clustering will help identify wasteful delay from specific assignable causes such as vendor dependency

• Metrics like this help us focus improvement initiatives to improve the fitness criteria results – e.g. removing delay improves lead time

http://www.klausleopold.com/2013/09/blocker-clusters-problems-are-not.html



Know why you are using a metric!

• Is your metric a fitness criteria that assesses system capability and indicates fitness for purpose and likelihood of surviving and thriving by satisfying customers?

• Or, is your metric evaluating and guiding a specific change to improve fitness of the system?

• If neither, you don’t need it!• Metrics guiding improvements should be

temporary & discarded when no longer needed



Conclusion



The future of creative knowledge work should be inspired by Bruce Lee & JKD

Our opponents are uncertainty & risk. Engage directlyVisualize & make them explicit throughout the workflow & at all 3 levels of reportingTeach beginners to set up safe-to-fail, learning environments at the individual, workflow & business unit levelsEvolutionary methods are required to help us manage in complex environmentsIf humans are involved the environment is complexFitness-for-purpose & sustainability come from developing strong adaptive capability

Train with live opponentsNo kata

No "dry land swimming“



Thank you!



David Anderson is a thought leader in managing creative knowledge workers. He is CEO of Lean Kanban Inc. a business franchising training & events globally with a vision of sustainable evolutionary approaches for improved service delivery & management in creative 21st

Century industries.

He has 30 years experience in the high technology industry starting with computer games in the early 1980’s. He has led software teams delivering superior productivity and quality using innovative methods at large firms such as Sprint and Motorola.

David is the pioneer of the Kanban Method an evolutionary approach to improved service delivery and better business agility. His latest book is, Lessons in Agile Management – On the Road to Kanban.

He founded Lean Kanban University, the education division of Lean Kanban Inc, a trade association of member firms & franchisees dedicated to assuring high quality Kanban training through a worldwide network of accredited trainers offering classes based on a defined and peer reviewed curriculum.

About



The idea of Modern Management Methods was inspired by History of Modern Part 2 by Orchestral Maneuvers in the Dark.

Daniel S. Vacanti first suggested that the Kanban Method and related techniques of probabilistic forecasting, statistical methods, and both qualitative and quantitative risk management were creating a change in management methods of the same magnitude and of a similar nature to the shift from Newtonian physics to Quantum Mechanics.

Janice Linden-Reed assisted with photo editing for this presentation

Acknowledgements



Joe Cooper first blogged about the similarity in philosophy between the Kanban Method and the teachings of Bruce Lee. He coined the phrase “Kanban should be like water”.

The data on slides 60 & 61 was provided by Raymond Keating of CME Group.

My approach to change was framed by an observation from Peter Senge, “People do not resist change, they resist being changed!” He intuited resistance was rooted in identity.

The Cynefin Framework & “Safe-to-fail Experiment” originated with Dave Snowden.

Steve Denning proposed NPS as the only metric that matters in his book, “Radical Management.”

Acknowledgements


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