. AIR 1 POLLUTION COMTROL

ESCALATE EQUIPMENT COSTS William M. Vatavuk Chemical Engineer

uring fiscal year 1994, this author used the Bernard J. Steigerwald Opportunity for Independent Study, D sponsored by U.S. Envi-

ronmental Protection Agency’s Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (Re- search Triangle Park, N.C.), to develop a group of quarterly indexes for adjusting or escalating air pollution control costs from one period to another. In all, nine in- dexes were developed, one equipment cost index (ECI) for each of nine control device categories.1 For convenience to the reader, additional indexes for two other equipment categories - available as part of the Producer Price Indexes compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - are also presented here.

These 11 indexes - collectively known as the Vatavuk Air Pollution Con- trol Cost Indexes (VAPCCI) - can be used to escalate costs from the initial (base) period (first quarter 1994) forward to any quarter in the future. To date, final indexes have been calculated (and are presented at the end of this article) for the second, third, and fourth quarters of 1994, and first quarter 1995; preliminary indexes are provided for second quarter 1995. Quarterly updates of these cost in- dexes will be computed as soon as the re- quired input data become available (box, p. 12). To date, no other set of cost in- dexes has been developed for such a wide array of pollution-control devices.

why use index data? Cost or price indexes are needed for two reasons: To record changes in costs or prices over time; and to escalate costs or prices from one date to another. Certain indexes, such as the widely used Con- sumer Price Indexes (CPI) or Producer

I An EPA report, Escalation Indexes for Air Pollution Control Costs [ I ] , provides the basis for this article. To receive a copy, see the box on p. 12.

-Bureau of Labor Sitis& (BLS; Washington, D.C.), have been widely used for decades to adjust prices and wages. Nonetheless, the mix of goods and services they track may not always reflect the specific marketplace or indus- tries in question.

For instance, to determine the price in- crease in widgets from 1947 to 1994, we could survey all the widget manufactur- ers and analyze the data to come up with an average price increase over time. But suppose we didn’t have the time or re- sources to do that. Perhaps we could get data on widgets from the Producer Price

8 ENVlRONMENTAL ENGlNEERlNG WORLD I NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 1995

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control devices 0 Indexes. However, if there is no PPI specifically dedicated to widgets, then perhaps we could look up the PPI for “frobbits” (the category of devices that most closely resembles widgets). The PPI for frobbits would not give us the exact price history for widgets over this 47-year period, but it might provide a close approximation, and, it would be quicker and cheaper than surveying all of the manufacturers in the business.

The situation is much the same for air pollution control equipment. To track the change in equipment costs, or to escalate them to a future quarter, we could contact the relevant vendors for price informa- tion. However, unless you are a potential buyer, it isn’t always easy to obtain timely or comprehensive price data from busy vendors.

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As a result, many engineers prefer to use data from a compiled cost index to track changing prices. With index data, the anticipated cost can be obtained by using the following equation:

cost,,= costold (Idajp nedndexj, old) (1)

where subscriptj denotes the index value (i.e., the VAPCCI provided here) for con- trol devicej.

Suppose that in first quarter 1994, a wet scrubber cost $100,000. Now esti- mate how much this scrubber would cost in first quarter 1995. If the 1994 (old) VAPCCI value was 100.0, and the 1995 (new) VAPCCI value was 109.9, then, the 1995 estimated equipment cost is:

Cost,, = $I 00,000 (1 09.9/100.0) = $109,900

In other words, according to the VAPCCI for wet scrubbers, the cost of this scrubber would increase by an esti- mated 9.9% during this one-year period. Users should keep in mind that if an index is designed for escalating equip- ment costs (as is the VAPCCI), it will not

TABLE 1 (far left). Extensive vendor surveys produced enough data to compile historical price data for seven categories of air pollution control devices, from first quarter 1989 through first quarter 1994. Data for second quarter 1994 and beyond are found in Tables 4 and 6

TABLE 2 (left). Using gas absorbers as an example, this table shows the types of equipment components that vendors cited as contributing to overall cost, and the fraction of the list priceeach represents

TABLE 3 (right). Relevant Producer

Price Indexes (some directly applicable,

others as surrogates) were used to obtain cost information to

build the Equipment Cost Indexes (ECI) for 1994 and beyond. This

table shows those used to construct the ECI for

gas absorbers

update the cost of electricity, labor, mate- rials or other items that are needed to keep the system in operation.

Why not use other indexes? Before developing the VAPCCI, this au- thor routinely relied on certain published price indexes to escalate control equip- ment costs - mainly the Chemical Engi- neering Plant Cost Index (CE), computed by, and published each month in, Chemi- cal Engineering magazine, and the Mar- shall and Swift Equipment Cost Index (M&S), also published in Chemical En- gineering. While better than most, these indexes are not adequate indicators of specific costs associated with air pollu- tion control?

Developed in 1963, the CE index has been used mainly to escalate construction costs associated with chemical process plants. It encompasses such process equipment as heat exchangers, pipes and fittings, pumps and compressors [2,3].

2 However, the CE index can be used to escalate the costs of fluegas desulfurization (FGD) systems, Clam sulfur recovery plants, sulfuric acid plants, and other standalone chemical processes that are often used to control air pollution.

ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING WORLD I NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 1995 9

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While some of these items are used in air pollution control systems, most are not.

M&S compiles cost data by industry. The 47 industries covered include elec- tric power, mining and milling, refriger- ating, and process industries (which in- cludes cement, chemicals, clay and rubber products); a separate index is de- veloped for each. Unfortunately, each index reflects the specific mix of equip- ment for that particular industry, as well as costs for commodities, such as labor. Thus, the M&S is too broad-based for es- calating air pollution control costs.

In recent years, new Producer Price In- dexes have been developed by BLS for fabric filters and mechanical collectors. Before discussing them in the context of this article, we should present some background on the PPI, as many cost ele- ments developed by BLS were key inputs to the development of the VAPCCI val- ues presented here.

The PPI at a glance The Producer Price Indexes measure av- erage changes in sales prices received by domestic commodity producers “in all stages of processing.” BLS presently

ing (Le., products entering the market for the first time that have not been manufactured or fabricated, and that are not sold directly to consumers). Each category encompasses subcate- gories covering such products as food- stuffs, fuels, consumer goods, and capital equipment.

The PPI devoted to the net output of in- dustries and their products are grouped according to the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) and the Census product code extensions of the SIC. This makes them directly comparable with

wage and productivity) that are organized by SIC code.

The third type of PPI, the commodity indexes, track prices of products by sim- ilarity of end-use or material composi-

I other economic data (e.g., employment,

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tion. They track commodity prices, irre- spective of the industries in which they are produced.

Some commodity indexes correspond to the industry price indexes, but differ in their reference bases and index levels. While most of the commodity-based in- dexes have a base of 1982 = 100, most of the industry-based indexes have different bases - each corresponding to the year and month that it was introduced.

As a result, the absolute values of each index are different, but the relative, month-to-month changes in the respec- tive commodity and industry price in- dexes are identical. For more on the PPI, please refer to references [4] and [5].

All three types of PPI are published monthly in the BLS periodical Producer Price Indexes. For each, index values are provided for the current and preceding periods, and for the period four months prior to the current period. Percent changes are provided from the previous to the current period, and from the pre- ceding 12 months to the current period.

The percent changes listed with the PPI are “unadjusted,” meaning the index values have not been “seasonally adjusted” to account for price move- ments resulting from normal weather patterns, regular production and market- ing cycles, model changeovers, seasonal discounts and holidays. Unadjusted val- ues are of primary interest to cost ana- lysts, marketing specialists and purchas- ing agents to escalate long-term purchasing contracts. For this reason, the VAPCCI also have been developed using unadjusted PPI.

New PPI values are typically listed as

UOVEMBER-DECEMBER 1995

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“preliminary” for four months. Then, these values are subject to one revision by BLS, to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections by respondents.

The PPI and pollution control Of the hundreds of existing PPI, only two (fabric filters and mechanical collectors) are potentially applicable for escalating equipment costs associated with air pol- lution control. Because these two cate- gories were first compiled in June 1989, they are newer than most other PPI.

Bear in mind, however, that these two new PPI have two shortcomings. First, neither specifies sizes or system design (both of which are are important to the formulation of an escalation index).

Second, the mechanical collectors (cy- clones) index is of limited value, because such devices are rarely used as primary particulate-control devices. Most often, they are used upstream of a fabric filter, electrostatic precipitator, or other particu- late-control device to remove large parti- cles from a gaseous exhaust stream prior to subsequent treatment. Thus, they are more akin to auxiliary equipment.

Despite these weaknesses, the me- chanical collector and fabric filter PPI are more relevant to escalating air pollution control costs than are the more general Chemical Engineering or Marshall & Swift cost indexes. As a result, these two contemporary PPI are now being tracked and reported with the nine new category- specific indexes introduced here.

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Developing new indexes The VAPCCI presented here (Table 6 ) consist of a dedicated Equipment Cost

Index (ECI) developed for each of the nine categories of air pollution control devices described below. Each of these ECI will allow the user to adjust equip- ment costs forward from the first quarter 1994 to any future quarter: Carbon adsorbers (fixed bed, regenerable) Catalytic incinerators (fixed bed) Electrostatic precipitators (“ESPs”) Flares (elevated)

0 Gas absorbers (packed column) Regenerative thermal oxidizers Refrigeration systems Thermal incinerators (recuperative) Wet scrubbers (e.g., venturi type) For seven of these equipment cate-

gories, this article also presents historical index data, from first quarter 1989 through first quarter 1994, gathered by surveying a host of equipment vendors.

As mentioned above, new ECI were not developed for fabric filters and me- chanical collectors. But, for the sake of completeness, the VAPCCI listings that appear at the end of this article (Table 6 ) - and will appear henceforth as a regu- lar feature in both Environmental Engi- neering World and Chemical Engineer- ing magazines (box, p. 12) - include index data on fabric filters and mechani- cal collectors computed from the PPI.3

The vendor survey In structuring the Equipment Cost In- dexes (ECI) that make up the VAPCCI, we first selected the major categories of

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3 While BLS supplies its data on a monthly basis, these two indexes have been converted to a quarterly basis - averaeine the monthlv PPI for each auarter -for ease of &kparison withthe other categdries of the VAPCCI.

add-on control devices that are used to control air pollution from point sources. The selection was limited to add-ons be- cause, despite the introduction of various process modifications, material substitu- tions, equipment changes and treatment- chemical injections, add-on controls are still the most commonly used way to ad- dress air pollution. And, their equipment costs can be easily quantified.

Next, a survey form was developed to gather historic price information from control equipment vendors. Because we wanted to compare historical price changes to current changes tracked by the individual ECI, the survey form also re- quested data to permit calculation of the ECI. And, since each type of control de- vice has its own features, a different form was used for each of the nine categories.

Historical list prices were requested by quarter from 1989 to the beginning of 1994. The form asked for prices to be ex- pressed relative to the price in first quar- ter 1989 (which was then arbitrarily set at 100.0) because of a widely used cost en- gineering rule-of-thumb - which holds that costs should not be escalated over periods longer than five years.

In the second part of the form, the ven- dors were asked to supply price break- downs according to three device sizes - small, medium, and large. Each category- specific survey form specified the typical capacity for small, medium and large sized units. For instance, for flares, small corresponds to a flare tip diameter of 4 2 in., while medium and large correspond to 1 2 4 8 in. and A 8 in.

For each device, within each size range, the survey asked for the price

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a Arithmetic averages of the three ECI values. b Calculated as follows: WA = [(High index-Low index) I I (Average index-

Because PPI inputs to the ECI have been denoted as “unrevised” by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, these ECI values should be considered preliminary, as well. Final ECI values will be disseminated once the final second quarter 1995 PPI values become available.

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100) I ] x 100%.

The Equipment Cost r

here for each quarter I from second quarter

Preliminary ECI are shown for second quarter 1995

breakdowns 4 (as percent of list price) attributable to the pri-

mary components that make up the de- vice (i.e., fans and instrumentation, flare bumer tips, and so on). These break- downs were used to compute the various equipment cost indexes presented below.

The survey responses Survey responses were simply averaged and tabulated. No effort was made to weight the data before averaging; rather, each response was given equal credence.

Historical price data. Some vendors reported annual, rather than quarterly prices. To make annual-basis data com- patible with quarterly-basis data, we as- signed the same price to each quarter of a given year. Also, a few vendors were unable or unwilling to report prices for one or more quarters during the five-year period. Rather than entering zeroes or as- sumed figures for these quarters, we re- ported “no data” for that period, and omitted them from the averaging.

Component price data. There were some blanks in these responses, as well. For example, a few vendors did not re- port data for one or more size categories, because they had not built units of these sizes. Here again, blanks were reported as “no data” and omitted from averaging.

While some vendors reported zeroes for the “other” category of components, a few completed that line on the form. “Other” typically meant engineering, project management and startup.

Finally, some vendors indicated that the size categories on the survey form

ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING WORLD I NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 1995 1 I

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TABLE 8. The normallred CE and MdtS lndexvaluer,canbecompwedtothe "average" ECI values provlded In Table 4. In genemi, the CE and MfkS values track fairly closely to the ECI averages, but are too broad-based to accurately track changes in individual categories of air pollution control devices

TABLE 6. Using Index data provides a quickandeasy method for tracking and escalating costs, especlally over several

tors gathered from vendor surveys; and any relevant Producer Price Index data, to be matched to each of the components listed in the vendor surveys. Of the hun- dreds of PPI published, certain ones cor- respond to the individual equipment components used to build air pollution control systems.

First, we reviewed the lists of control device components and attempted to find matches among the PPI. For example, for pumps (a component of both gas ab- sorbers and wet scrubbers), we used price data from the PPI for centrifugal pumps

We were able to find PPI matches for most of the components in this way. For those components for which there were no published PPI, we chose surrogates. For instance, as a surrogate for the col- umn component used in gas absorbers, we used PPI data for laminated plastic plate, sheet and profile shapes (PPI# 3083-1). Our reasoning was that, as most absorber columns are fabricated of fiber- glass-reinforced plastic, the price of these columns would follow changes in the price of laminated plastic plate. Table 3 shows the PPI and other data used to con- struct the ECI for gas absorbers, and con- tains the various index values for the first and second quarters of 1994.

After all relevant component data were compiled, the equipment cost indexes (ECI) for gas absorbers were constructed by "marrying" the data in Tables 2 and 3, in the following manner. First, we se-

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(PPI #3561-13).

lected cost-weighting factors, which de- note the fraction of the total equipment cost that a given component contributes (these cost-weighting factors are identi- cal to the component price factors listed in Table 2). Referring to Table 2, the weighting factors for the absorber col- umn would be 0.235, 0.257 and 0.170, respectively, for the small, medium, and large units.

Next, we calculated the ratio of PPI (or Employment Cost Index) for the most re- cent quarter, divided by the correspond- ing index value for the base quarter (first quarter 1994), and multiplied that quo- tient by the weighting factor. For exam- ple, using data from Table 3, this ratio for absorber columns would be 1303129.4 = 1.009, or a 0.9% increase. The product of this ratio and the weighting factors for absorber columns would be 0.237, 0.259 and 0.172 respectively, for the small, medium, and large units.

Finally, to obtain the ECI for the period in question (second quarter 1994), we added all of the products of these weight- ing calculations, and multiplied the sum by 100. For gas absorbers, the resulting ECI were 100.51 (small), 100.53 (medium), and 100.48 (large).

Equation 2 shows this calculation:

EcI@cIb=q wF),{$d$b) (2) where: ECIq,b = Equipment cost index for given quarter (4) and base quarter (b) (WFlj = Weighting factor, component j

136 = Index (PPI, Employment Cost Index, and so on) for given quarter (4) and base quarter (b)

Table4 shows the resulting ECI data for each of the nine equipment cate- gories, from second quarter 1994 through second quarter 1995, respectively. Ex- cept for second quarter 1995 (which is preliminary), all the other ECI values are considered final. In each table, index val- ues are provided for small, medium, and large size ranges, as well as the average (arithmetic mean) of these three.

To assess how sensitive each index value is to device size, we devised the following statistic, which appears in the column labeled RangdAverage x 100%6

WA ratio =

For example, using data from second quarter 1995 (Table 4e), the (WA) ratio is for electrostatic precipitators:

(111.21-107.85)/(109.48-100)] x 100% = 35.4%

The next highest R/A ratios shown in Table 4e are 30.2% (carbon adsorbers) and 24.9% (wet scrubbers), meaning these devices are most sensitive to size- related price changes. The size-sensitiv-

6 Because ECZ,, e may be less than 100, the ab- solute value of the ienominator (EC~~~ ,~~-ECI~ , line) should be used in this calculation.

ENVIRONMENTAL ENGlNEERING WORLD I NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 1995 13

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ity ratio for the other categories are somewhat lower, ranging from 1 .1 to 9.6%. The WA ratios for earlier quarters Fables 4a to 4d) behave similarly - one or two categories show a large sensitiv- ity (ratio value > 20%), while others showed lower size-related sensitivity.

The only conclusion that we can draw at this time is that for the majority of equipment categories in a given quarter, the WA ratios are relatively low - typi- cally below 20%. On the whole, this sug- gests that the ECI has a somewhat weaker dependence on equipment size than we might otherwise expect. This issue will remain under study as these in- dexes are updated quarterly.

Reflections on the ECI Finally, it is interesting to compare the ECI values developed here with the Chemical Engineering, and Marshall & Swift (M&S). The CE and M&S values for 1994, and for first and second quarter 1995, are listed in Table 5.

Overall, the differences among the ECI values in Table 4 and the normalized CE and M&S values are not large, absolutely or relatively. However, longer-term com- parisons could produce larger or smaller discrepancies. And, as noted in the earlier comparison of CE and M&S indexes with historical data gathered from ven-

dors, these generalized industrial indexes are not adequate for tracking category- specific changes among air pollution control devices.

In some cases, large variations in the price of a certain component may se- verely influence the overall price of the pollution-control device. In other cases, vendors may absorb a rise in individual component prices, rather than raising the price of the air pollution control device. Since price fluctuations in each of the component prices will typically be chronicled by the PPI, there is a higher probability that a weighted index (such as the ECI developed here) will track price changes more closely than would another, more generalized type of index.7

Putting the indexes to work The following example illustrates how to use the index data presented here. Con- sider a gas absorber with a first quarter 1989 equipment cost of $l00,OOO (COSbld). What would the unit cost in third quarter 1991, and second quarter 1994 dollars, respectively?

First, refer to Table 1, where a relative

While it is beyond the scope of this article to address this point fully, readers are encouraged to review the full report [ I ] on the VAPCCI development and methodology.

14 ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING WORLD I NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 1995

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price of 106.8 is the index value for third quarter 1991 (Index,,). Because the original cost is in first quarter 1989 dol- lars, the base value is 100.0 (Indexold). After substituting these values into Qua- tion (l), we obtain: Cost (3rd quarter 1991) = $100,000 x (106.8/lOO.O) = $106,800

However, escalating the original cost to second quarter 1994 dollars requires two steps. First, escalate the equipment cost to first quarter 1994 dollars via the historical price data in Table 1. The cor- responding index value for first quarter 1994 is 112.2. The resulting cost is then escalated from first to second quarter 1994 using the ECI for gas absorbers in Table 4a. Here, we find the average index value of 100.5 1, where the base value is 100.0 (first quarter 1994).

We can combine both steps into one:

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Cost (2nd quarter 1994) =

(100.51/100.0) = $112,772 (rounded to $1 12,800)

$IOO,ooo x (112.2/100.0) x

In this calculation, note that the base value “100.0” appears twice. This hap- pens because 100.0 was chosen as the base for both the historical and calculated equipment cost indexes.

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References 1. Vatavuk, William M., “Escalation Indexes for Air Pollution Con-

trol costs,” Protection Agency (EPA- 452/R-95-006), Research Triangle Park, N.C., October 1995.

2. Matley, J., Chemical Engineering Cost Index - Revised, Cliern. Eng., April 19, 1982, p. 153.

3. Stevens. R.W., Equipment Cost Indexes for the Process Indus- tries, Chem. Big., November 1947, pp. 124- 126.

4. Brief Explanation of Producer Price Indexes, fruducer f rice 0 1 - Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Dept. of Labor, Wash-

5. “BLS Handbook of Methods,” Chapter on Producer Prices, Bu- reau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Dept. of Labor, Washington,

6. “BLS Handbook of Methods,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S.

Dept. of Labor, Washington, D.C. 1992. 7. Telefax from Ellen Rafferty- (Chem. Eng.) to W.M. Vatavuk

(US. EPA, Research Triangle Park, N.C.), Sept. 26, 1994. 8, cherlr , v ~ ~ . (various issues 1989-1993). 9. Vatavuk, William M., Ed., “OAQPS Control Cost Manual,”

Fourth Ed., Supplement 2, Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, N.C., October 1992.

10. Letter from Jorgen G. Hedenhag (Air Pol, Inc., Teterboro, N.J.) to W.M. Vatavuk (U.S. EPA, Research Triangle Park, N.C.), June 2 I , 1994.

I 1. Caustic surge leads to potent price hike, Cliernicd Marketing Reporter, May 28, 1994, p. 5.

12. Vatavuk, William M., “Estimating Costs of Air Pollution Con- trol,” Lewis Publishers, CRC Press,‘Chelsea, Mich., 1990.

ington, D.C., November 1993.

f l While we have gathered data and de- vised equipment cost indexes for nine air pollution control devices, and have compiled two more quarterly indexes based on published BLS data, our work is far from being complete? The in- dexes will be updated on a quarterly basis (box, p. 12). And;as warranted, relevant feedback from vendors and users may prompt us to revise or re- structure the indexes, to make them

more useful, or to reflect technology changes or market conditions. Finally, in the upcoming years, we expect to ex- pand the coverage of the VAPCCI to include additional control devices, such as NOx controls (selective and nonselective catalytic reduction, com- bustion modifications, steam and water injection), fluegas desulfurization (FGD) processes, and various fugitive emission controls, such as wet dust suppression.

8 During this independent study, the author also developed a set of Total Annual Cost Indexes (TACI), to comple- ment the equipment car* indexes (ECI) discussed here. The TACI attempt to factor in the impact of changing elec- tricity. labor, and other operations and maintenance costs on equipment costs. For a detailed discussion of the methodology evaluated, and the mitigating circumstances that undermine the usefulness of such an index, see [ I ] .

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Author William M. Vatavuk (3512 Angus Rd., Durham. NC 27705; tel.: 919-541-5309) is a senior chemical engineer with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality, Planning and Standards (Re- search Triangle Park, N.C.). He has more than 20 years of expe- rience in the analysis of air-pol- lution-control costs. He is the

author of “Estimating Costs of Air Pollution Con- trol”( 1990), and of “Marketing Yourself with Techni- cal Writing’’ (1992), both published by Lewis Pub- lishers ( B o a Raton, Fla.). He has also authored more than 40 technical articles. Vatavuk is the inventor of the Vatavuk Air Pollution Control Cost Indexes for escalating equipment costs. He holds a B.S.Ch.E. from Youngstown (Ohio) State University, and is a registered engineer in N.C.

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