windless winter weeks

WINDSTILLE WINTERWEKKEN

Kees van der Leun

24-11-2016

Windless winter weeks

Kees van der Leun | managing partner

© F

oto

lia-j

stu

ij

© ECOFYS | |

Climate disruption in full swing: North Pole warm…

24-11-2016 Kees van der Leun2

Temperature around the North Pole: 2016 (red) vs average 1958-2002 (green)

Source: Danish Meteorological Institute Via: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

© ECOFYS | |

… but our winters could get colder


Meltwater from Greenland ice cap

disturbs the Gulf Stream

Vis

ualisation

of

pola

r vort

ex invasio

n in J

anuary

2014 ©

NASA,

Goddard

Space F

light Cente

rTem

pera

ture

Nov-O

ct

2016 L

-OTI

(°C)

Anam

oly

vs 1

951-1

980 ©

NASA G

ISTEM

P

Less Arctic ice causes heavier

outbreaks of colder

temperatures to the South

© ECOFYS | |

Paris Agreement: lots of additional measures needed


Nederl

andse C

O2-e

mis

sie

paden g

ebaseerd

op P

ari

jsakkord

en g

efo

rmule

erd

bele

id ©

PBL P

lanbure

au v

oor

de L

eefo

mgevin

g

CO2 emissions pathways for the Netherlands based on the Paris Agreement

and formulated policies

Mt CO2 per year

Illustrative calculation

History

Formulated policies (NEV 2016)

With net negative emissions

Without net negative emissions

With net negative emissions

Source: PBL

© ECOFYS | |

Ambitious plans, both nationally and locally


The Hague: Climate-neutral by 2040

Rijk

zonder

CO

2©

Raad v

oor

de leefo

mgevin

g e

n infr

astr

uctu

ur

2015

The H

ague ©

fre

eim

ages.c

om

-Herm

an B

rinkm

an |

Utr

echt

© f

reeim

agescom

-Pete

r H

ellebra

nd

Utrecht: Energy-neutral by 2030

Advice to Dutch government

© ECOFYS | |

For high-density areas: renewable heat distribution


• Renewable sources of heat needed:

• Geothermal

• Sustainable biomass

• Industrial waste heat

• Challenge: lower demand low cost, low temperature systems

Vis

ualisation taken fro

m:

Warm

tela

dder.

Afw

egin

gskader

warm

tebro

nnen v

oor

warm

tenett

en

© E

cofy

s 2

014 in o

pdra

cht

van:

Eneco

Map source: Warmtebedrijf Rotterdam, Eneco

© ECOFYS | |

For lower-density areas: Heat pumps, using ground

source, ventilation air, or ambient air


Ground-source Ambient air

Gro

und-s

ourc

e h

eat

pum

p d

iagra

m ©

Foto

lia-S

lavom

irValigurs

ky

Air

heat

pum

p ©

Foto

lia-p

hanuw

atn

andee

• High Coefficient of Performance

(COP), hardly dependent on ambient

temperature

• Requires space, and earthwork

• Low Coefficient of Performance (COP)

especially at low ambient temperature

• Sometimes even switch to resistance

heating: COP=1

• Cheaper, easy, applicable almost

everywhere

© ECOFYS | |

Recent cold spell: 2012


De

Bilt,

2012 ©

Ecofy

sTem

pera

tur,

zate

rdag 4

febru

ari

2012,

07:3

0 u

ur

© 2

012,

KN

MI,

Aangem

aakt:

04-0

2-2

012,

06:3

8 U

TC

Netherlands: 10 days below freezing

Temperature

Saturday, 4 February 2012, 07:30 AM

© ECOFYS | |

Recent cold spell: 2012, in neighbouring countries too!


De

Bilt,

2012 ©

Ecofy

sEuro

pe

Tem

pera

ture

Anom

aly

JAN

29 -

FEB 4

by N

OAA/N

ational W

eath

er

Serv

ice –

National Cente

rsfo

r Environm

enta

l Pre

dic

tion –

Clim

ate

Pre

dic

tion C

ente

r[P

ublic d

om

ain

], v

ia W

ikim

edia

Com

mons.

Netherlands: 10 days below freezing

© ECOFYS | |

Germany: production of solar energy, 2012


energy-charts.de

© Fra

unhofe

r-G

esellschaft

via

Fra

unhofe

r IS

E –

Energ

y c

hart

s,

ww

w.e

nerg

y-c

hart

s.d

e

Data: Fraunhofer ISE, energy-charts.de

© ECOFYS | |

Germany: production from solar and wind, 2012


© Fra

unhofe

r-G

esellschaft

via

Fra

unhofe

r IS

E –

Energ

y c

hart

s,

ww

w.e

nerg

y-c

hart

s.d

e


© ECOFYS | |

When it’s really cold in the Netherlands, there’s less wind…


© F

oto

lia-j

stu

ij |

Cabauw

win

dspeed a

t 140m

, 2001-2

016,

win

ter

© E

cofy

s, 2016 w

ith d

ata

fro

m K

NM

I |

De B

ilt,

2012 ©

Ecofy

s

Data source: KNMI

© ECOFYS | |

…while electricity demand from heat pumps peaks

> Air-source heat pumps are applied a lot, but perform poorly at low ambient

temperature:

> Demand during cold spells can be 2 kW per home, continuously

> When installed in half of all homes:

Extra peak demand 8 GW, almost half of present Netherlands peak demand


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

-10 0 10 20

Effic

iency a

ir h

eat

pum

p (

CO

P)

Outdoor temperature (oC)

100% efficient

= resistance heating

Floor heating (35oC)

Radiators (50oC)

© E

cofs

y 2

016

© ECOFYS | |

Major impact on local grids, but on national grids too!

> Heat pump dominant in requiring

additional capacity locally, due to:

– Long duration (10 days, in

2012)

– High simultaneity

– Dimensioning: in cold spell, runs

continuously

> Total effect (5 – 10 GW) would have

major impact on national electricity

grid too

> 34 years (until 2050) or even

19 years (until 2035, RLI) is not a

lot of time in terms of planning such

extensive infrastructure


Gri

dm

ap

The N

eth

erl

ands ©

TenneT

Transmission grid TenneT, the Netherlands

© ECOFYS | |

Many solution approaches available


Insula

tion ©

Foto

lia-J

ürg

en F

älc

hle

| A

ir h

eat

pum

© F

oto

lia-p

hanuw

atn

andee |

Gas b

oiler

© F

oto

lia-O

leksandr

Dely

k |

Red f

irepla

ce w

ith

wood p

ellets

© F

oto

lia-m

aho |

Aquifie

r –

WKO

-syte

men, Pri

ncip

e d

ouble

t in

en w

inte

rsituatie ©

Pro

vin

cie

Dre

nth

er

| “C

ar

as p

ow

er

pla

nt”

©

Gre

en V

illa

ge –

all r

ights

reserv

ed

Heat storage

Rigorous insulation

“Car as power plant”

(Green) gas as backupHigh-quality heat pump

Pellet stoves

© ECOFYS | |

National Heat Strategy for the Netherlands


Tem

pera

tur,

zate

rdag 4

febru

ari

2012,

07:3

0 u

ur

© 2

012,

KN

MI,

Aangem

aakt:

04-0

2-2

012,

06:3

8 U

TC

> Local or individual choices can lead

to problems or expensive solutions

on larger scales

> Costs of different solutions can differ

by € billions

> Magnitude and importance require a

National Heat Strategy, providing

guidance on:

– Solution approaches

– Necessary legal and regulatory

framework

– Governance

– Communication

© ECOFYS | |

Contact

> For further information, please contact

Kees van der Leun

Managing Partner | Ecofys

[email protected]

Ecofys Netherlands

Kanaalweg 15-G

3526 KL-Utrecht

The Netherlands

www.ecofys.com

Twitter: @Ecofys @Sustainable2050


mailto:[email protected]

http://www.ecofys.com/

https://twitter.com/ecofys

https://twitter.com/sustainable2050

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