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Draft Destination Management Plan

PREPARED JUNE 2017

APPENDIX 2

SUMMARY PRESENTATION OF THE

BASELINE ANALYSIS

| 2iis Consulting © 2016 | Tourism in the MidCoast of NSW: Baseline Analysis | Confidential | September 2016 | Page 1 |

A Baseline Analysis of Tourism in MidCoast New South WalesExploring the Potential for Sustainable Tourism Growth in the MidCoast Region of New South Wales

Baseline Analysis Summary7 September 2016

Produced by 2iis Consulting in collaboration with

Cover image © Craig Fardell and Christina Armstrong | Barrington Tops National Park.


Tourism in the MidCoast of New South WalesSummary Presentation 07/09/2016

BASELINE ANALYSIS SUMMARY: CONTENTS

1 | Brief background and context

2 | Key conclusions from the Baseline Analysis: a summary

3 | Informing the MidCoast Destination Management Plan

4 | Discussion and questions

5 | Selected additional detail from the Baseline Analysis

5.1 A more detailed look at some key areas of analysis

+ Nature–based and Adventure–Based Tourism (NABT)

+ Current Tourism Brands (Gloucester, Great Lakes & Manning Valley)

5.2 Selected Tourism Sectors and Other Regions


1 | BRIEF BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT



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FOREWORD

+ The Baseline Analysis of Tourism in MidCoast New South Wales is the first stage in thedevelopment of a comprehensive Destination Management Plan for the MidCoast region of theMid North Coast of New South Wales.

+ This stage of the broader DMP project has been funded by the MidCoast Council following initialfunding by Great Lakes Council for a baseline analysis of Great Lakes Tourism. It looks to assist theregion in sustainably growing the value and importance of Tourism to both local industry andthe local community.

+ The long-term vision that the project is designed to support is that:

‘The MidCoast region successfully builds a strong, resilient Tourism Industry with dynamic andadaptive product and experience offerings that adapt to the needs of visitors and the community.’

+ Developing the broader Destination Management Plan will provide both a long-term vision and ashort-term action plan outlining some of the Tourism experiences, products and infrastructurerequired to meet the anticipated potential visitor needs for the region.

+ The report provides baseline data and analysis that will help highlight the most effective ways tolay these foundations, whilst also outlining some of the challenges likely to be faced.

+ It also highlights a range of case studies and some examples of best practice from other regionsof Australia and selected locations in New Zealand to help inform an effective DestinationManagement Plan for the MidCoast.



BACKGROUND

‘The most comprehensive local government reform in more than 100 years will result in 19 new councils beginning operations. Our plan to create stronger new councils in Sydney and regional NSW will be supported by NSW Government investment of about $500 million. We are ensuring our communities have stronger and more efficient councils, which will free up money for important projects such as local roads, parks, playgrounds and footpaths.’

Mike Baird, NSW Premier. Launch of the 19 amalgamated NSW Councils, 12/05/2016

© Matthew Cramer | Crowdy Bay National Park |



A NOTE ON THE DATA

Where possible, every attempt has been made to verify the data included in the report and, in the Global, Australia, New South Wales, North Coast New South Wales and sections on the MidCoast Regions to look to provide a consistent view across the different scales of Tourism.

However, given the disparate nature of Tourism in general and the lack of fully consistent tourism measurement across the different scales, there are a number of areas that are not fully comparable. In a limited number of cases, this has meant refraining from using the most-up-to-date data to enable as much consistency as possible.

There are certainly gaps in the data throughout the report, and some of it is not fully statistically verifiable given the varied sources it has come from. However, it does provide an overview of the current baseline for Tourism in the MidCoast and allows for meaningful comparison with other regions at varying scales –from North Coast New South Wales up to the Global level.

It should not be taken as fully accurate however, and errors should be assumed to exist.

A NOTE ON THIS SUMMARY

This summary is an abridged version of the full report. Substantial sections of the report are not included or referred to only briefly. The full report is available for download via a link at the end of this document.


2 | KEY CONCLUSIONS FROM THE BASELINE ANALYSIS: A SUMMARY

© Brent Purcell | Barrington Tops National Park


OVERVIEW

The Baseline Analysis of Tourism in MidCoast New South Wales report summarises the current state of Tourism in the MidCoast and explores some of the opportunities for Sustainable Tourism Growth in the region over the next 15 – 20 years. It was produced in August & September 2016 for MidCoast Council.

It identifies a number of significant opportunities for the region – some very significant – that have the potential to grow the MidCoast Tourism Industry to over AUS $1.55 billion by 2030; an increase of more than 270% from its current value of AUS $570.4 million.

In exploring these various opportunities, a potential future for the MidCoast’s Tourism Industry has emerged that is quite different from its current state.

A future where Tourism makes full use of the region’s exceptional Natural Tourism assets much more effectively and where:+ The overall Tourism mix is a much more balanced and sustainable one;

+ Over 25% of the MidCoast economy is directly or indirectly supported by Tourism; and

+ The MidCoast is renowned both domestically and Internationally as one of Australia’s leadingNature and Adventure-based Tourism regions.

This future is certainly an ambitious one, but also an attainable one based on the overall growth forecasts and various opportunities that have been uncovered through this baseline analysis.

2 | A SUMMARY OF THE KEY CONCLUSIONS

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OVERVIEW

+ There will, however, certainly be challenges in creating the kind of Tourism industry described aboveby the end of the next decade.

+ The MidCoast region is currently heavily reliant on certain types of Domestic Tourism sourcedprimarily from Sydney and Regional New South Wales. It derives less than 1.2% of its tourismrevenue from International Visitors and its overall mix is heavily skewed towards mainstream,family Tourism. This last characteristic is clearly one of the main causes of the seasonalityexperienced each year (particularly in the Great Lakes) that is one of the elements currentlyrestricting the future growth of the region

+ Regional dispersal is also a challenge, with the coastal strip of Manning and the Great Lakes inparticular receiving the highest volume of overall tourist numbers. Changing this is something thatappears to have been on the agenda in the three separate regions for some time.

+ These, and a number of other challenges facing the region’s Tourism, are touched on throughout thefull report, and are covered in detail in Sections 7 to 11.


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OVERVIEW

+ The potential for building a stronger, community–centred, primarily Nature–based Tourismindustry in the MidCoast Region that is central to the local economy and growing in a sustainableand environmentally appropriate manner is clear.

+ This potential stems more or less exclusively from the strong existing natural resource base thatcurrently underpins the vast majority of Tourism in the region.

+ Maintaining and, in some cases, enhancing this resource base should underpin all the investmentdecisions that will be required to open up this long–term, high value Tourism opportunity; forecast tobe worth over AUS $1.55 billion per annum to the MidCoast Region in 2030.

+ The following conclusions are not intended to lay out a definitive plan.

+ They do, however, provide some insight into the potential areas that, from a Tourism perspective,are likely to provide the most long-term benefit for the MidCoast.

NoteA wide range of information has been analysed and reviewed for inclusion in the Baseline Analysis. Only some of it is

included in the following conclusions; the remainder is intended to provide an ongoing resource base for future MidCoast Tourism planning, as well as for use in the short–term for the Destination Management Planning process


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16.1 Tourism is forecast to grow Globally, Nationally and Locally; but capturing the ‘right kind of growth’ requires investment, and the potential negative impacts will need careful management

+ Tourism globally is forecast to grow significantly in the next 2 decades.

+ The United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) predicts continuinggrowth to 2030, with International Tourism growing to US $1,998 billion inexpenditure from US $1,245 billion in 2014, and Domestic Tourism growing toUS $5,465 billion from US $3,642 billion.

[See Section 5 of the report for detail on Global Trends.]


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16.2 There are some key Global trends that are particularly relevant to the MidCoast Region

+ Ten long–term trends are predicted to strongly influence future Tourism growth,with six of direct relevance:

1) ‘Increasing Importance of Niche/ Interest/ Activity-based Tourism’;

2) ‘The Redefinition of Backpacking’;

3) ‘Experiential Travel’;

4) ‘The Green Movement’;

5) ‘Voluntourism’; and

6) ‘The Demand for Public Programming’.


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16.3 The MidCoast has the potential to benefit significantly from a number of these niche growth trends

+ The MidCoast, with more than 1,808km2 of National Parks, Nature Reserves, StateForests and protected areas, over 190km of coastline and iconic landscapes likethe Barrington Tops, the Manning Coastline and unique Great Lakes region, isclearly a region with significant natural resources for Tourism.

+ It already has a well–developed and significant Tourism industry delivering social,economic and environmental value to the region. With over 1.86 million tourists

delivering AUS $570.4 million in annual revenue, and contributing over 19%of the value of MidCoast’s Gross Regional Product in 2015, it is one of the mostimportant industries in the region.


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KEY STATISTIC MIDCOAST COUNCILGLOUCESTER FORMER

GLOUCESTER SHIRE COUNCIL

GREAT LAKESFORMER GREAT LAKES SHIRE

COUNCIL

MANNINGFORMER GREATER TAREE CITY SHIRE

COUNCIL

Size/ Land Area | Sq. kms 10,052 km2 2,950 km2 3,373 km2 3,729 km2

Current Population | 2015 90,975 5,160 36,720 49,095

Estimated 2036 Population 121,408 | +33.6% 4,850 | –3.3% 45,850 | +24.3% 70,708 | +42.7%

Number of Businesses | 2015 6,540 708 2,530 3,302

Tourism Businesses | 2015 Estimate 736 | 11.3% 81 | 11.4% 391| 15.5% 265| 8.0%

Local Jobs | 2015 29,426 1,963 11,066 16,397

Tourism Jobs | Direct & Indirect 2015 2,810 | 9.5% 210 | 10.7% 1,550 | 14.0% 1,050 | 6.4%

Tourism Value | % of All Industry 2015 6.5% 4.4% 10.7% 3.7%

Tourism Value | % of GRP 2014 19.2% 19.7% 30.3% 10.5%

International Visitor Numbers 20,000 1,000 12,000 7,000

International Visitor Nights 90,000 6,000 54,000 50,000

International Visitor Spend $6.36 million $364,000 $3.0 million $3.0 million

Domestic Overnight Numbers 970,000 96,000 585,000 289,000

Domestic Visitor Nights 3.44 million 262,000 2.32 million 854,000

Domestic Overnight Spend $470 million $43 million $312 million $115 million

Domestic Daytrip Numbers 863,000 82,000 401,000 380,000

Domestic Daytrip Spend $94 million $8 million $44 million $42 million

Types of Tourism(Estimated % splits in 2014) Domestic O/N 52.3%

Domestic Day 46.6%International 1.1%

Holidays 58%; VFR 31%; Other (inc. Business 11%)

Domestic O/N 53.5%Domestic Day 45.9%International 0.6%






Total Visitor Numbers | 2014 1.86 million 180,000 998,000 677,000

Estimated Visitor Numbers | 2008 1.68 million 177,000 875,000 625,000

Estimated Growth Rate | 2008–14 +10.9% +1.7% +14.0% +8.3%

Total Tourism Expenditure | 2014 $570.4 million $51.4 million $359 million $160 million

Estimated Tourism Budgets* $2.22 million $201,093 $966,000 $1,052,394

Rank in North Coast NSW | 2014 – 14 | 15 4 | 15 8 | 15

* Tourism budgets are best estimates based on 2015/16 reported budgets in existing operational plans for 3 MidCoast Council regions.

Table 61Summary Tourism Statistics for the amalgamated MidCoast Council AreaSources: Combined data from Sections 3, 7, 8 & 9. Sources detailed in each section as relevant.


2 | A SUMMARY OF THE KEY CONCLUSIONSEXAMPLE TOURISM ANALYSIS: GLOUCESTER



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KEY STATISTIC MIDCOAST COUNCILGLOUCESTER FORMER

GLOUCESTER SHIRE COUNCIL

GREAT LAKESFORMER GREAT LAKES SHIRE

COUNCIL

MANNINGFORMER GREATER TAREE CITY SHIRE

COUNCIL

Size/ Land Area | Sq. kms 10,052 km2 2,950 km2 3,373 km2 3,729 km2

Current Population | 2015 90,975 5,160 36,720 49,095

Estimated 2036 Population 121,408 | +33.6% 4,850 | –3.3% 45,850 | +24.3% 70,708 | +42.7%

Number of Businesses | 2015 6,540 708 2,530 3,302

Tourism Businesses | 2015 Estimate 736 | 11.3% 81 | 11.4% 391| 15.5% 265| 8.0%

Local Jobs | 2015 29,426 1,963 11,066 16,397

Tourism Jobs | Direct & Indirect 2015 2,810 | 9.5% 210 | 10.7% 1,550 | 14.0% 1,050 | 6.4%

Tourism Value | % of All Industry 2015 6.5% 4.4% 10.7% 3.7%

Tourism Value | % of GRP 2014 19.2% 19.7% 30.3% 10.5%

International Visitor Numbers 20,000 1,000 12,000 7,000

International Visitor Nights 90,000 6,000 54,000 50,000

International Visitor Spend $6.36 million $364,000 $3.0 million $3.0 million

Domestic Overnight Numbers 970,000 96,000 585,000 289,000

Domestic Visitor Nights 3.44 million 262,000 2.32 million 854,000

Domestic Overnight Spend $470 million $43 million $312 million $115 million

Domestic Daytrip Numbers 863,000 82,000 401,000 380,000

Domestic Daytrip Spend $94 million $8 million $44 million $42 million

Types of Tourism(Estimated % splits in 2014) Domestic O/N 52.3%

Domestic Day 46.6%International 1.1%








Total Visitor Numbers | 2014 1.86 million 180,000 998,000 677,000

Estimated Visitor Numbers | 2008 1.68 million 177,000 875,000 625,000

Estimated Growth Rate | 2008–14 +10.9% +1.7% +14.0% +8.3%

Total Tourism Expenditure | 2014 $570.4 million $51.4 million $359 million $160 million

Estimated Tourism Budgets* $2.22 million $201,093 $966,000 $1,052,394

Rank in North Coast NSW | 2014 – 14 | 15 4 | 15 8 | 15

* Tourism budgets are best estimates based on 2015/16 reported budgets in existing operational plans for 3 MidCoast Council regions.

Table 61Summary Tourism Statistics for the amalgamated MidCoast Council AreaSources: Combined data from Sections 3, 7, 8 & 9. Sources detailed in each section as relevant.


16.3 The MidCoast has the potential to benefit significantly from a number of these niche growth trends

+ By being clear on the region’s overall positioning and focusing more tightly onsome of the emerging niche-Tourism trends (particularly Nature-based andAdventure Tourism), modelling to 2030 indicates that the MidCoast has thepotential to attract 4.65 million visitors, spending over 8.65 million nights in

the region and generating AUS $1.55 billion in direct Tourism revenue.

+ This overall MidCoast forecast is made up of the Gloucester Region growingfrom 180,000 to 450,000 visitors generating AUS $139 million (vs. AUS $51.4million in 2014); the Great Lakes growing from 998,000 to 2.49 million visitors

generating AUS $974 million (vs. AUS $359 million in 2014); and the ManningRegion growing from 677,000 to 1.71 million visitors generating AUS $432million (vs. AUS $160 million in 2014).

+ Targeting a clear leadership position in Nature-based and Adventure Tourismwould also shift the overall mix of Tourism in the MidCoast to a more balancedmodel: more traditional mainstream Tourism (e.g. family beach holidays) would stillhave a role, but the growth would be in the higher–value/ higher–yielding nichesegments of Tourism.


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Table 71: Tourism Forecasts for the MidCoast (2015–30) Modelled based on data from the UNWTO, TRA, Destination NSW and Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Tourism Satellite Account.



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Table 63: Current and Forecast Value of MidCoast Nature– and Adventure–based Tourism (2015 vs. 2030)Sources: UN Statistics Division, Tourism Research Australia and Destination NSW.



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16.4 To capture the potential growth, there are some clear gaps that need to be addressed, including:

1) The 3 current regions (Gloucester, Great Lakes and Manning Valley) do not provide thebest structure for effective and flexible promotion of the MidCoast Region’s Tourism offerings;

2) The current Tourism Propositions could work harder to fully leverage the Natural Assets forTourism that exist (whilst acknowledging that each Region does promote a number of its individual assets well);

3) There is a lack of ‘hero’ Nature/Adventure–based Tourism offerings across the MidCoast;

4) The approach to Trekking/ Walks is fragmented and requires greater co–ordination (this is true

of the individual regions and even more so when looking at the MidCoast as a whole);

5) The Hinterland of the MidCoast Region is a ‘dormant opportunity’ and needs long–termdevelopment to assist in regional dispersal;

6) There are few top–end/ unique accommodation options – and some of the Nature–basedoptions need development;

7) The Food and Wine offering is significantly weaker than other regions of New South Wales;

8) There is minimal in the way of clear Tourism offerings for certain growing niche markets(e.g. ‘Flashpackers’, Next Gen Grey Nomads, Aboriginal Tourism etc.);

9) All the current Tourism websites could be more effective at promoting the Region’s Tourism(NB many of the competitive regions in New South Wales have a similar gap in their digital Tourism promotion).



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16.5 The report identifies 28 areas that have the potential to drive strong future Tourism growth in the MidCoast

1) Maximise the opportunity the amalgamation offers to restructure the MidCoast’s RegionalTourism offering and fully open up the AUS $1.55 billion 2030 growth opportunity;

2) Set a long–term goal to become one of New South Wales’ (and ultimately Australia’s) leadingdestinations for Nature-based and Adventure–based Tourism (NABT);

3) In setting this NABT goal, recognise that the objective with existing mainstream Tourism in the

MidCoast (particularly in the Manning and Great Lakes Regions) will be one of ‘maintenance’;

4) Be clear on the unique Tourism proposition(s) the MidCoast wants to own and build all activityaround them;

5) Build the MidCoast Tourism positioning(s) as synonymous with immersive Nature-basedexperiences over the long–term;

6) Fully leverage the natural assets of the region – and consider hero experiences in each sub–region;

7) Review the 3 current promoted Regions, and build a future structure around (potentially) 4MidCoast Tourism Regions that better reflect available Tourism offerings and fully support a coreNature-based and Adventure–based Tourism positioning;



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8) Start to build the necessary Nature-based infrastructure (with a particular initial focus on Trekking/Walks, Cycling/ Mountain Biking and Kayaking/ Rafting);

9) Develop some NABT ‘Hero Experiences’ that act as draws to the region;

10) Maintain base level promotion of the core Mainstream Tourism offerings in the MidCoast;

11) Explore the longer–term development of a broader ‘Hinterland’ Tourism offering;

12) Be clear on the role of International Visitors (particularly the growing ‘Flashpacker’ & Luxurymarkets);

13) Review the Domestic Target markets based on the NABT positioning;

14) Start to grow Aboriginal/ Indigenous Tourism offerings in key parts of the MidCoast Region;



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15) Explore the potential for the Women’s Health and Wellbeing/ Guided Walks/ Adventure Tourismniche markets;

16) Explore the potential for top–end/ unique accommodation and further incentivise the developmentof a range of NABT accommodation options;

17) Develop a strong local Food and Wine offering as a core strength of the MidCoast;

18) Undertake a comprehensive planning review of Forster Town Centre (including a CoastalWalkway feasibility) and consider similar for Taree;

19) Develop/ expand specific offerings for the growing ‘Next Generation Grey Nomads’ segment;

20) Consider expanding the Business Tourism offering in the Taree area;

21) Review the current events program and build a calendar around a future NABT positioning(including the development of 1 or 2 hero events);



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22) Explore the potential for increased Sports facilities available for Tourism (including golf);

23) Leverage the new NSW Destination Network (and connect it with the NABT positioning);

24) Develop key partner relationships (particularly with NSW–NPWS and new North Coast Destination Network);

25) Be ambitious in seeking investment partners – the economic potential in the Nature–based andAdventure-based Tourism positioning is significant;

26) Invest in a stronger digital/ online Tourism marketing capability across the re–structured MidCoast;

27) Don’t ignore the need to address regulatory barriers & foster enabling conditions forTourism growth;

28) Commit to a long–term investment view of 10–15 years vs. 3–5 years.

The above is not meant to be read as an action list or strategic plan, but rather as an indication of the areas and initiatives that offer the strongest growth potential.

Full detail on each of the 28 areas above can be found in Section 14.2 and 14.3 of the report; the detail included there will

be used to inform the development of the full Destination Management Plan.


16.6 Addressing these 28 areas effectively (or the majority of them) will have significant economic, social, cultural, and environmental benefits for the MidCoast Community

+ The economic benefits of developing the MidCoast’s Tourism Industry in themanner outlined above are clear, but the interconnected social, cultural andenvironmental benefits are of equal significance.

16.7 The Council Amalgamation provides a unique opportunity to set the MidCoast up for Tourism growth to 2030

+ Re–structuring the Region’s overall offering around its Tourism assets vs. theprevious LGA Boundaries provides a unique opportunity to make full use ofthe Region’s Tourism assets and accelerate ‘the right kind of growth’ in bothnumbers and value.


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16.8 A Combined MidCoast Tourism offering vs. standalone Gloucester, Great Lakes & Manning Valley has clear economic potential

+ Clearly a significant investment of time and resources will be required to structurethe region for accelerated Tourism growth, but a conservatively estimatedadditional AUS $0.55 billion in overall value from Tourism appears to be theimmediate economic benefit available to the MidCoast from promoting the regionmore collectively between 2017 and 2030.


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16.9 Whilst there are differences, there is also much in common across the MidCoast


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16.10 Restructuring the MidCoast’s Regional Tourism offering around 4 ‘Tourism Areas/ Regions’ would provide both internal and external benefits

+ The current Regional breakdown of ‘Gloucester’, ‘The Great Lakes’ and ‘The ManningValley’ does not fully do justice to the region’s Tourism assets and limits potential futuregrowth for a number of key Tourism sectors.

+ The suggested future structure below is an initial draft only. It is intended to help initiatethe more detailed planning process that will be undertaken in developing theMidCoast’s’ DMP and clearly requires broad consultation given its’ implications(Further detail can be found in Section 11.7 of the report).

1) Taree and the North Coast: covering the region to the East of Taree (predominantly the areabetween the Pacific Highway and the Coast) and running from Diamond Head to Black Head;

2) Wingham and the Northwest: covering the region stretching from Wingham/ Krambach up tothe Northwest towards the Curracabundi NP (i.e. made up of west of the Manning Region andnorth east half of Gloucester Region– potentially using ‘Manning Valley’ as it’s descriptor);

3) The Hinterland and Barrington Tops: covering the southwestern half of the Gloucester Region,the area to the west of the Pacific Highway in the Great Lakes Region and potentially a smallsouthwestern corner of the Manning Region;

4) The Great Lakes: covering the Eastern half of the former Great Lakes Council Area (east of thePacific Highway and from Hawks Nest to Black Head).


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16.10 Restructuring the MidCoast’s Regional Tourism offering around 4 ‘Tourism Areas/ Regions’ would provide both internal and external benefits


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1| ‘Taree and the North Coast’

2| ‘Wingham and the Northwest’

3| The Hinterland and Barrington Tops’

4| ‘’The Great Lakes’

Overview Map of 4 Potential MCC Tourism Areas/ Regions


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16.11 The MidCoast Tourism Brand(s) and promotion will require significant development

+ Once the Regional Tourism Structure is clear, there will clearly be a need forsignificant branding and Tourism promotion development to support therevised approach.

+ This should include developing a unique, differentiated proposition (orpropositions) that capture the Natural assets of each area (and the region as awhole) and then building all Tourism development and promotion around it.

+ This will then lead to building the MidCoast Tourism brand(s) over the long–termso that they become synonymous with immersive Nature-based experiences.


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16.12 Nature-based, Adventure-based and Nature-based Marine Tourism are clear opportunities

+ As detailed throughout the report, the Nature–based, Adventure–based andNature–based Marine Tourism segments are particularly strongopportunities, forecast to grow at almost twice the rate of the other Tourismsegments in the region; going from a value of AUS $142.6 million in 2015 toAUS $695.3 million in 2030.


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16.13 Developing the Nature and Adventure–based opportunities will require relatively significant investment and a commitment to longer planning and investment horizons

+ There is a clear gap between the experiences currently available in theMidCoast and those needed for the MidCoast to become a leading Nature andAdventure–based Tourism destination.

+ Closing this gap is essential and will require longer–term planning andinvestment horizons to be adopted, as well as some clear expectation settingaround the time it will take for significant ROI to be achieved. A strong casestudy for this is Kangaroo Island in South Australia.


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16.14 The approach to the MidCoast’s existing Tourism markets should be one of ‘Maintenance’

+ Focusing on developing the Nature and Adventure–based Tourism opportunitydoes not mean walking away from the current strengths of the MidCoastTourism industry.

+ Even based on a ‘maintenance approach’, the modelling forecasts the existingforms of Tourism will grow to AUS $653 million in value by 2030.

16.15 The Domestic Target markets should be reviewed based on the NABT positioning

+ At AUS $1.53 billion, the total Domestic market is forecast to be over 66 timeslarger than the value of International Tourism in 2030.

+ Given the strong appeal to urban dwellers of a clear NABT destination, there willbe an opportunity to review the target markets for Domestic Overnight Tourismand explore ways of growing the market in Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne,Canberra and possibly Adelaide.

+ Urban centres outside of the major capital cities should also be considered asshould the changing trends in the Youth market (both Domestic and International).


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16.16 Whilst the Domestic Tourism Opportunity is higher volume, International Tourism has significant, high–value/ high–yield potential

+ Domestic Tourism is clearly the larger opportunity, but International Markets canplay a significant role in delivering higher–value visitors (forecast to grow toAUS $23.0 million by 2030).

+ The main forecast International growth markets for New South Wales includeChina, India, Korea and Asia generally; with the UK, Europe and US forecast toremain important without significant growth rates.

+ Within these markets there appear to be specific opportunities for theMidCoast in targeting luxury travellers from the US; ‘Flashpackers’ from UK,Europe & the US and deciding if a focus on Asia is of sufficient benefit towarrant additional investment.


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16.17 The ‘Hinterland’ has the potential for accelerated growth over the longer–term

+ Part of the reason for suggesting the 4 region structure outlined above rests withthe potential to fully develop the Hinterland as more than just a gateway to theBarrington Tops.

+ How this is undertaken will depend on the overall structure assumed for theMidCoast, but, assuming there is a region that can be classed as a ‘Hinterland’,this should certainly be more fully developed as a standalone Tourism offering.


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16.18 A number of key ‘Development Sectors’ are critical for long–term growth

+ Outside of the core NABT opportunity and sectors outlined above, there are a widerange of Tourism sectors and niche markets included in the 28 areas identified aspotential growth drivers.

+ However, 9 of them are particularly significant given the growth potential they exhibit.These will need prioritisation in the DMP and then the selected areas will requirespecific focus given they will not deliver immediate high returns. Detail on each of theareas below is included in Sections 14.2 and 14.3.

1) Aboriginal/ Indigenous Tourism;

2) Cycling (Mountain Biking);

3) Women’s Health & Wellbeing/ Adventure niche;

4) ‘Rural & Heritage Tourism’;

5) ‘Combination Adventure’;

6) Next Gen Grey Nomads;

7) ‘Flashpackers’;

8) Long–term development of Forster Town Centre (including linked Coastal Walkway), andpotentially similar for Taree; and

9) Business Tourism in and around Taree.


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16.19 To assist in the DMP process, there are a number of best practice examples to learn from

+ Australia has a wealth of examples of successful Nature-based Tourismdevelopment that can inform the MidCoast’s Destination Management process.

+ A number have been included in this analysis including Tourism areas likeKangaroo Island, the Sapphire Coast and New Plymouth in New Zealand; andTourism Sectors like The Great Walks Market, Nature & Eco Lodges, Indigenous/Aboriginal Tourism, Cycling Tourism, The Luxury Market, Next Generation

Grey Nomads, the Food & Wine Market and The ‘Flashpacker’ Market.

16.20 The Destination Management Plan is important, but is just one part of the process needed to facilitate long–term, sustainable Tourism growth

+ The DMP is clearly a core part of planning for the MidCoast’s future Tourismgrowth (in many ways the cornerstone of that growth), but it should be viewed asjust one part of the process to set the Region’s Tourism up for success.


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16.21 A longer–term, structured approach is a prerequisite for success

+ The need for a longer-term approach and adoption of longer–time horizons istouched on throughout the report, but is worth emphasising here as it is one ofthe most critical requirements for developing an effective DestinationManagement Plan that will successfully grow the Mid Coast’s Tourism Industry.

16.22 As is strengthening the links with local, regional and State-based Tourism Networks

+ The other prerequisite for success will be in ensuring strong, enduring linkswith networks like the new North Coast Destination Network, Destination NewSouth Wales and (to a lesser degree) Tourism Australia.


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16.23 STARTING THE JOURNEY TO A POTENTIAL $1.55 BILLION MIDCOAST TOURISM INDUSTRY

+ The Baseline Analysis is designed to highlight the potential areas for Tourism growth,identify some examples of best practice to learn from and lay out some future pathwaysfor further exploration.

+ What is clear from the analysis is that there is significant potential for growth in theregion – particularly from the Nature-based Tourism segment – but also from a numberof the growth niche markets identified in this analysis and from the MidCoast’s currentkey Tourism segments in each of the 3 Regions.

+ The region is currently underperforming on a number of levels, which gives it a steeperpotential growth curve – a fact that will very likely assist in attracting some of thenecessary Private and Public investment to open up the growth opportunities that areultimately settled on in the MidCoast’s Destination Management Plan.

+ There are clearly challenges to overcome to achieve the levels of growth identified aspossible in this report; but the opportunities available are clear both in terms of what thestatistics are telling us, and also what the global trends are indicating.


SECTION 16



+ There are also a number of short–term actions that can be taken that will immediatelystart to deliver tangible benefits to the region and start the MidCoast on its journey todeveloping a potential AUS $1.55 Billion Tourism Industry.

+ To conclude, the report is very much a tangible starting point for what seems likely to bea project that will have significant and far-reaching positive impacts on Tourism in theMidCoast, and consequently the communities that are spread throughout the region.

+ Made up as it now is of Gloucester, the Great Lakes and Manning Regions, TheMidCoast is a unique area set within an inspiring and varied natural environment.

+ The combined natural assets of the Region clearly have the potential to be stronger from aTourism perspective than they were when structured within the 3 standalone regions.


SECTION 16



+ As the full report outlines, there are plenty of opportunities for these assets to be usedmore effectively in the future to help open up a much more balanced, growing andsustainable MidCoast Tourism industry.

+ Doing this will require investment, take time, and will need a number of challenges to beovercome. But the long–term benefits of doing so will be a more prosperous, resilientand vibrant community in the MidCoast Region, set within a productive and protectedlandscape and supported by a strong and growing Nature–based Tourism industry.

+ An inspiring long–term vision that certainly seems like it will be worth the journey.


SECTION 16


3 | INFORMING THE DESTINATION MANAGEMENT PLAN

© Tourism Australia | Yagon Campground, Myall Lakes National Park



SOME OVERALL OBSERVATIONS

1. While the range of possibilities is wide and the potential very high, implementation needsto be based on some key lessons from other destinations (highlighted in the report):

a) Initial focus should be a mix between short to medium term actions that support early growthand repositioning of the region to take advantage of the Nature and Adventure-based Tourismopportunities, including strengthening brand and marketing+ This includes for events and the profile of the sports, adventure and nature-based offer of the

region.

+ Note that brand positioning isn’t sufficient – it needs to follow through in marketing executions,including across digital/ online platforms and to reinforce the visitor experience offer.

b) Longer–term opportunities should be started sooner rather than later by investing in masterplans and feasibility studies for specific opportunities.

c) Staged implementation will be important – especially for resource implications, but also to helpunderpin growth – revealing new opportunities over the period to 2030 will help to encouragepeople to come back (return visitation), generate new news and enable a more realisticapproach to implementation and resource allocation.




2. The forecasts in growth for the MCC region include forecasts for both increase in visitornumbers and overnight spend per visitor. It is recommended that the DMP identifytargets that move towards the ultimate potential forecast, for example:

a) Set long-term targets for 2030 of increase of visitors to the region of around 200% (predicted =+250%) and increase in spend of around 200% (predicted = +245%).

b) Set interim targets that demonstrate the growth towards to 2030 – e.g. growth by 2022 (i.e. 5years from implementation in 2017) – these targets should be set lower as the growth rate willbe more likely to pick up once infrastructure etc. is developed.

+ Potential targets for 2022 of around 60% for both.

c) Need to confirm if targets to be agreed and embedded in the DMP.

d) Maintaining the domestic tourism focus is important to underpin the success of the region

+ The VFR and other domestic markets (esp. Next Gen Grey Nomads, Women’s NABT and‘Flashpackers’) will need to have some identified targets to ensure the focus is not shifted too fartowards increasing the international appeal of the destination.




3. Structure and resourcing of MCC Tourism: will need to consider the governancestructure and roles required to implement the DMP, including the need for:

a) Marketing and content production – brand positioning is not sufficient, as demonstrated by theNorth Coast Regional competition.

b) Experience development and linking in closely with strategic planning and economicdevelopment areas within Council.

c) Partnerships and capacity building, including industry relationships and relationship with thenew North Coast Destination Network.




4. The new MCC region offers an immediate growth potential i.e. the value of the whole isgreater than the sum of the parts.

a) However, it means further consideration of how the various destinations or ‘visitor nodes’ withinMCC are presented.

+ i.e. unlikely to recommend simply putting the MCC tourism organisation over the top of the threeprevious LGAs.

b) This would be implemented over time i.e. staged in as the immediate priority is to ensure thevalue of the existing visitor economy is at least maintained.




5. Potential Forster town centre re-development

a) The New Plymouth, Taranaki case study highlights the benefits of the coastal walk to thebroader economy and social value of the town centre, as well as the potential top catalysebroader Town Centre re–development.

b) In Forster we will be recommending a comprehensive planning review of the town centre.

+ As highlighted in the Taranaki example, this could be staged in.

c) There are already significant sections of a ‘coastal walk’ that could be leveraged further throughan integrated planning approach.

+ For example, providing better linkages between Forster Main Beach, the town centre and WallisLake and connectivity to One Mile Beach via the Bicentennial Walk.




6. Great Walks/ Potential Walking Network

a) While this is an important aspect of the Nature-based and Adventure–based Tourism (NABT)segment, the ‘peak’ in terms of walking holidays has probably been reached.

b) The new trend is around combination adventure holiday opportunities.

+ This underpins the approach adopted in the TDDI grant application.

c) We recommend looking more into the opportunities across the range of NABT activities ratherthan just one aspect (e.g. walks).

+ This approach will help to ensure a more diverse offering that aligns with the trends and futuredirection of NABT.




7. Audit of Great Lakes and the report highlight the need to diversify the accommodationmix across the MidCoast.

a) this may involve consideration of the planning environment to provide incentives or promote theopportunities within MCC to encourage greater private sector investment in a broader mix ofaccommodation options (e.g. Smiths Lake Eco Village).

8. Leveraging the opportunity for Business Tourism (MICE market) from Taree across theregion (e.g. for extending stay) is a benefit and opportunity from the amalgamation.


4 | QUESTIONS & DISCUSSION

© Craig Fardell and Christina Armstrong | Barrington Tops National Park


5.1 | A MORE DETAILED LOOK AT SOME KEY AREAS

5.1.1 The Gloucester, Great Lakes and Manning Valley Tourism Brands

5.1.2 Nature–and Adventure–based Tourism in the MidCoast

© Visit Manning Valley | Saltwater National Park


5.1.1 | THE GLOUCESTER, GREAT LAKES AND MANNING TOURISM BRANDS


5.2.2 | NATURE– AND ADVENTURE–BASED TOURISM IN THE MIDCOAST REGION

OVERVIEW

+ The natural assets of the MidCoast Region are clearly evident; both when looking atthe types of Tourism that are currently strong, and also when reviewing where thegreatest potential for growth appears to lie.

+ The Sections on the current state of Tourism in Gloucester, the Great Lakes andManning (Sections 7–9) each highlight that Nature–based and Adventure–based

Tourism (NABT) is the single most important opportunity for future Tourism growth.

+ It is no surprise then that NABT is also the single largest opportunity for theMidCoast region in its entirety.

+ The table on the following page summarises the various NABT forecasts included inSections 7–9 of the full report to provide an overview of the potential for this underlyingcore growth area out to 2030.


Table 63: Current and Forecast Value of MidCoast Nature– and Adventure–based Tourism (2015 vs. 2030)Sources: UN Statistics Division, Tourism Research Australia and Destination NSW.



FORECAST VALUE TO 2030: SUMMARY

+ The current total value of NABT in the MidCoast Region is estimated at between AUS$114.0 million and AUS $142.6 million and is (conservatively) forecast to grow tobetween AUS $540.8 million and AUS $695.3 million by 2030.

+ This total is built on a forecast of NABT growth in Gloucester from AUS $10.2–$12.8million to AUS $48.7–$62.6 million; in the Manning Region from AUS $32.0–$40.0million to AUS $151.2–$194.4 million; and in the Great Lakes from AUS $71.8–$89.8million to AUS $340.9–$483.3 million

+ It also sees the overall share of NABT increase from a current estimated level of 20–25%of total Tourism to 35–45% in 2030.

+ Although these forecast ranges are based on a combination of UNWTO, TRA andDestination NSW trend estimates, based on the scale and variety of Natural Assets thatare clearly available for Tourism in the MidCoast Region, they are likely to be at thebottom end of the scale in terms of potential (i.e. very conservative).




+ Even a modest increase in the overall share of NABT in the MidCoast to 55–65%, wouldsee the range increase to AUS $852.5 million to AUS $1.01 billion.

+ This level of share for NABT is eminently achievable by 2030 based on the fact thatsizeable opportunities have been identified in each of the 3 MidCoast Regions.Achieving a share for NABT in excess of 50% would also be a clear indicator that theMidCoast had become a lead region for NABT in New South Wales.

+ This overall growth forecast is also conservative; it assumes a minimal level of growth inTourism investment from the public and private sectors and minimal focus on the highergrowth potential Tourism sectors outlined in this report. Just focusing on the GreatWalks and core Nature–based positioning highlighted on the following page in Section11.6 could add a further 7.5–12.5% growth to these forecasts.




+ One element that is essential in achieving even the base AUS $540.8 millionforecast, however, is a clear restructuring of Tourism resourcing right across thenew MidCoast Council.

+ Tourism promotion will need to be focused around growing the whole Region’sTourism vs. being restricted by the historic boundaries of the previous LGA structure.

+ The exact structure of MidCoast Tourism Promotion resources will be dependent on thefinal ‘Tourism Nodes’ agreed in the DMP, but the forecasts assume any revisedstructure is fully operational within 18 months – and that the amalgamation remainsin place until 2030.



5.2 | SELECTED TOURISM SECTORS AND REGIONS5.2.1 The Sapphire Coast | Clear and well–structured Nature–based Positioning

5.2.2 The Coffs Coast, New South Wales | Lead Tourism Region in North Coast NSW

5.2.3 Kangaroo Island, South Australia | Long–term Tourism Planning

5.2.4 Forrest, Victoria | Mountain Biking

5.2.5 New Plymouth, Taranaki, NZ | Coastal Infrastructure

5.2.6 The Great Walks Market

5.2.7 Nature and Eco Lodges

5.2.8 Aboriginal/ Indigenous Tourism

5.2.9 Cycling Tourism

5.2.10 Next Generation Grey Nomads

5.2.11 Sport and Tourism (including Golf)

5.2.12 Backpacking/ the ‘Flashpacker’ and the Changing Youth Market market

© Tourism Australia | Southwest National Park, Tasmania


5.2.1 | THE SAPPHIRE COAST, NEW SOUTH WALES

5.2.2 | THE COFFS COAST, NEW SOUTH WALES


5.2.3 | KANGAROO ISLAND, SOUTH AUSTRALIA

5.2.4 | FORREST, VICTORIA


5.2.5 | NEW PLYMOUTH, TARANAKI, NZ


5.2.6 | THE GREAT WALKS MARKET


5.2.6 | THE GREAT WALKS MARKETCONTINUED


5.2.7 | NATURE AND ECO LODGES

5.2.8 | ABORIGINAL/ INDIGENOUS TOURISM


5.2.9 | CYCLING TOURISM

5.2.10 | NEXT GENERATION GREY NOMADS


5.2.11 | SPORT AND TOURISM (INCLUDING GOLF)


5.2.12 | BACKPACKING/ THE ‘FLASHPACKER’ AND THE CHANGING YOUTH MARKET


Prepared for MidCoast Council by:

2iis Consulting, in collaboration with DMSSydney | Australia | ii |

www.2iis.com.au | [email protected]

© 2016 2iis Consulting

FULL REPORT AVAILABLE VIA THE FOLLOWING LINK

A Baseline Analysis of Tourism in the MidCoast of New South Wales (2016Secure Link: https://goo.gl/76xc5X

If you experience problems downloading the report, please email [email protected]


GLOUCESTER TOURISM GAP ANALYSIS


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