wwyd about gsfl?
DESCRIPTION
WWYD about GSFL?. PRESENTED TO THE REGIONAL TECHNICAL FORUM Carrie Cobb, BPA Rob Carmichael and Laura Tabor, Navigant Consulting July 16, 2013. A update on BPA’s non-residential lighting market research. *. * Yoda Eckman. ONLY GSFL!!!. It’s about Baselines. WHERE WE ARE. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
WWYD about GSFL?
PRESENTED TO THE REGIONAL TECHNICAL FORUMCarrie Cobb, BPA
Rob Carmichael and Laura Tabor, Navigant ConsultingJuly 16, 2013
A update on BPA’s non-residential lighting market research
*
*Yoda Eckman
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
It’s about Baselines
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WHERE WE ARE WHERE WE ARE GOING
Pre-existing
condition
Current
Practice-“what’s in the ceiling”: pre-condition to post-condition -Reflects the choices a typical
consumer makes
ONLY GSFL!!!
“As a general rule, the RTF will use a baseline that is characterized by current market practice or the minimum requirements of applicable codes or standards, whichever is more efficient.”
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
THE CHALLENGE… THE METHODS…
THE CONSIDERATIONS…
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Research ChallengeIssue:
What is the baseline for GSFL (general service fluorescent lamps—AKA linear fluorescent) in the non-residential sectors?
Why it’s important: To ensure that, in light of the DOE standard, we continue to pay for only above-standard energy savings, but still capture cost-effective savings opportunities.
Why it wasn’t straightforward:This ain’t your grandpa’s incandescent wattagestandard…let’s look at the complications.
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There is no maximum allowable wattage per lamp.
The ballast matters (a lot).
Nearly endless GSFL fixture permutations.
How will manufacturers/distributors/contractors respond to new efficacy standard?
Got data?
Uses Cases
Different users will have different perspectives and needs for expressing the baseline.
Commercial Lighting Challenges
Regulatory and
Technical
DOE standard is an efficacy requirement (lumens/Watt) for a single lamp. A brighter lamp at the same (or greater) power is fair game.
Lamps live in fixtures, paired with ballasts, which affect system performance. The standard applies only to lamps.
Market Content
Programmatically, the building code metric, LPD, is rarely helpful in the context of incentivizing fixture retrofits.
Number and mix of lamp installations is a much different question than number and mix of fixtures installations.
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Scope of Perspective
Lighting Analog
Utility Baseline Typically Expressed in:
Code or Standard Typically Expressed in:
Programmatic Application:
Super-system Building or Space Watts/Sqft (LPD) Watts/Sqft (LPD) New Construction
Programs
System Fixture Watts Lumens/Fixture Watts* Lighting Retrofit Programs
Sub-system Lamp Watts Lumens/Lamp Watts Upstream Programs
Sub-system Ballast Watts (Output Watts / Input Watts) Upstream Programs
Perspectives on Commercial Lighting Baseline
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Data Collection
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Interviewed 20 distributors; in-depth, 90-min interviews. • All NW states represented; some rural, some
urban, some small, some large.• Biggest differentiator among distributors is not
size/location, but market niche. Received complete 2010–2012 GSFL
and HID sales data from 11 distributors. Expect at least 2 more.
Captured an estimated 45-50% of the market distributor non-residential market.
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Further Data Collection and Analysis
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Interviewed 3 manufacturers Reviewed national sales data Reviewed channel-specific (retail, wholesale, etc.)
national data Market insights further supported by Navigant’s
research in support of previous GSFL and ballast rulemakings as well as ongoing GSFL DOE rulemaking
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FINDINGS
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T12 Lamp Sales ( in thousands )
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Not only T12 sales plummeting…
Many distributors plan to stop stocking T-12s next year
Remaining sales of T-12s are 100% maintenance market
Big-box stores (non-distributor channels) are not selling significant volume of T-12s to C&I market
Retailers/manufacturers not interested in maintaining SKUs14
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80% T-8
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The market is DOMINATED by…
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No matter how you slice it…
Four Foot T8/T12 Applications
Market SegmentAverage
Wattage Per Lamp*
Watts Above/Below
AverageNew Construction 28.7 -1.0Maintenance 30.9 +1.3Retrofit 28.2 -1.5All Applications 29.7 -
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*8ft lamps scaled to approximate number of 4ft replacements
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What about the existing T-12 systems in buildings?
T-12s are out there• ~25% in 2009 per CBSA• Data from current CBSA available within the
year• Saturation expected to
be lower due to big program push
• Likely in low operating hour profiles
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When a 40W T12 Burns Out…
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≤10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Percent of Customers Purchasing New T12s Resp
onde
nts
(n =
12)
75% would upgrade to T8 (majority), T5, or LED.
On average, distributors estimates that only 25% of customers would install new compliant or stockpiled T12s.
Furthermore, recall lamp burnout represents the most likely scenario of a T12 being chosen.
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Defining the market
The standard is working and covers all GSFL, not just one type• Baseline for GSFL; not just T-12s• Market Average = retrofit + maintenance +
new construction
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BPA’s new baseline
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Lighting Systems Categories
Nominal Lamp
Wattages in MML
Existing Average Lumens
Application's Typical Lamp
Wattage
Market Average System
Input Per Lamp
# of Lamps in Existing System
Market Average Fixture
Adjustment (AKA "old ballast
factor")
New Baseline System Watts
Lamps Included in
Average
All 4' T-12 34
All 4' T-12 40
All Slimline 8' T12 60
All Slimline 8' T12 75
All HO 8' T12 95
All HO 8' T12 110
All VHO 8' T12 185
All VHO 8' T12 215
4ft T84ft T12
4ft T84ft T128ft slim
5729 95 191.8 0.97 91.8 8FTHO4ftT5HO
4625 60
8FTHO4ftT5HO134.10.72134.18370 185 1
New Current Practice (Market Average) BaselineTypical Existing Condition / Obsolete Equipment
52.90.8852.9 1
1984 34 129.4 0.86 29.4
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THINKING AHEAD:THE NEW MATH
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ANSI Testing Standard
ANSI is in process of changing standard New DOE ballast efficiency metric in 2014 Topic for consideration in lighting protocol
when subcommittee meets again Not explicitly being incorporated into the
baseline BPA will implement
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Background on Lamp Power DrawDrivers of GSFL Fixture Power Consumption
Lamp Power Number of Lamps Ballast Efficiency Ballast Factor
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These are actually two separate, independent*
factors. The regional calculators put them into
one bucket called “ballast factor.”
*For all intents and purposes of this project. In reality, one can affect the other.
Nominal (“rated”) lamp power is NOT the same as
actual power draw from the lamp. And the reason
it’s different is NOT ballast factor.
The actual reason it is different is an artifact of the way manufacturers are required to test and report
performance to DOE AND the fact that most lamps now operate on electronic ballasts.
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Background on Lamp Power Draw (Cont.)
Definitions
Nominal Lamp Power(32W for the standard T8 lamp)
This is simply what manufacturers market their lamps at. It is a category. More like a “Venti” than “20oz.”
ANSI Lamp Arc Power at HF(29.0W for the same T8 lamp)
Actual lamp draw when operated at High Frequency (more appropriate because most lamps will run on electronic ballasts now in the commercial sector).
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Okay, so which one is ‘correct’?
Both are ‘correct’ in the context in which they are reported, but for most linear fluorescents lamps today, the actual lamp draw is
the ANSI Lamp Arc Power tested at High Frequency because most commercial lamps will run on electronic ballasts.
𝑺𝒚𝒔𝒕𝒆𝒎𝑰𝒏𝒑𝒖𝒕 𝑷𝒐𝒘𝒆𝒓 (𝑾 )=(¿𝑳𝒂𝒎𝒑𝒔×𝒃𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒂𝒔𝒕 𝒇𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓 × 𝑨𝑵𝑺𝑰 𝑳𝒂𝒎𝒑 𝑨𝒓𝒄 𝑷𝒐𝒘𝒆𝒓 )𝑩𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒂𝒔𝒕 𝑳𝒖𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒐𝒖𝒔 𝑬𝒇𝒇𝒊𝒄𝒊𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒚
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Real Magnitude of this “Artifact”
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Ballast Type
Lamp Nominal Wattage
ANSI Lamp Wattage on
Magnetic Ballast
Magnetic Delta from
Nominal
ANSI Lamp Wattage
Electronic Ballast
Electronic Delta from
Nominal T12 Electronic 34 32.0 -5.9% 29.8 -12.3%T12 Electronic 40 39.0 -2.5% 36.3 -9.2%T8 Electronic 32 30.8 -3.8% 29.0 -9.4%T8 Electronic 25 NA NA 24.2 -3.2%T8 Electronic 28 NA NA 26.0 -7.1%T8 Electronic 30 NA NA 27.5 -8.3%T8 Magnetic 32 30.8 -3.8% 29.0 -9.4%T12 Slimline Electronic 60 60.5 0.8% 57.4 -4.3%T12 Slimline Electronic 75 75.0 0.0% 71.2 -5.1%T8 Slimline Electronic 59 60.1 1.9% 57.0 -3.4%T12 High Output Electronic 110 106.0 -3.6% 100.0 -9.1%T12 High Output Electronic 95 90.0 -5.3% 84.9 -10.7%T8 High Output Electronic 86 NA NA 84.0 -2.3%TSSO Electronic 28 NA NA 27.8 -0.7%T5HO Electronic 54 NA NA 53.8 -0.4%
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Back Up Slides
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Weight by market distribution of number of
lamps per fixture
Weight by market distribution of ballast types
for each lamp type
Professional Judgment
DOE Rulemaking Data on Lamps/
Fixture
BASELINE WATTS: New Construction
MaintenanceRetrofit
Weight by market distribution of lamp
types for each baseline category
Initial & Mean Rated Lumens
ANSI Lamp Wattage
LAMP CHARACTERISTICS
100+ Linear Fluorescent Permutations50+ HID Permutations
Ballast Type
Lamp Type
Number of Lamps per Fixture
AVERAGE FIXTURE WATTS
50 Linear Fluorescent Permutations50+ HID Permutations
Ballast Type
Lamp Type
AVERAGE SYSTEM WATTS
~20 Linear Fluorescent Types~25 HID Types
Lamp Type
AVERAGE LAMP WATTS
Ballast Factor
Ballast Efficiency
BALLAST CHARACTERISTICS
Professional Judgment
Distributor Ballast Shipment
Data
GOAL: Roll detailed sub-type data up to a single representative value for each purchase event that can be used as an input in the baseline calculation. As shown, the resulting baseline watts value reflects the role of ballasts on overall lamp-ballast system wattage.
Distributor Lamp Shipment Data
Professional Judgment
Market Average Wattage Calculation
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Obsolete
Obsolete Equipment. Equipment is considered obsolete if either of the following apply:• Components of the Efficient Case system are longer
available in the market due to the equipment no longer being manufactured; or
• Regulatory requirements, such locally applicable codes and standards for equipment or equipment standards promulgated by the U.S. Department of Energy prohibit sales of the equipment necessary for the Efficient Case system to operate.
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Characteristics of Results
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• The baseline wattages reflect the market-weighted system input wattage per lamp for the
fluorescent lamps shown to the right. (Nominal overall average is 31W/lamp).
• The lamp baselines account for the average ballast and system characteristics.
• The results show the dominance of the 32 W T8 lamp: there isn’t a big difference no matter
how you slice it.
• These values can be easily rolled into any system configuration.
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
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Market Measure Applications
New Construction,
Addition
New Building
New Space (Addition)
Renovation or Remodel
Scheduled Regular Maintenance
“Onesie-twosie Maintenance”
(Equipment Failure)
Old system no longer satisfactory
Cannot purchase old system components
anymore
Energy efficiency-motivated upgrade
Purchase Triggers Programmatic Measure Applications
New Construction
Maintenance
Retrofit
100%
50%
100%
50%
RTF Baseline Condition
Current Practice
Current Practice
Current Practice
OR
Pre-Condition
10%
50%
90%
100%
Baseline Perspective (Building or Fixture/Lamp) & Metric
Perspective = Building
Metric = LPD
Perspective = Fixture/Lamp
Metric = Watts
Perspective = FixtureMetric = Fixture Watts
Basis for the Baseline
Maximum code LPA, or actual current practice as
determined by code compliance work
Average Unit Shipped in Maintenance Market
Average Unit Shipped in Retrofit Market
OR Average Pre-Condition
Major Renovation
Group Relamp and Reballast
Group Relamp Only
50%
Lamp Replace on Failure
Ballast Replace on
Failure
System Upgrade
90%
10%
Perspective = Fixture/Lamp
Metric = Watts
Average Unit Shipped in New Construction Market
Perspective = Building/Space
Metric = LPD
Average LPD of retrofitted spaces (Current Practice)
ORAverage Pre-condition LPA
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Caption Contest
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“This is your pre-condition baseline and
here’s your current practice.”
“So say the T12 represents the 6th
Plan
potential and T8 is non-
programmatic…”