youth matters: the demographics of youth around the world carl haub senior demographer, population...

Youth Matters: The Demographics of Youth Around the World

Carl HaubSenior Demographer, Population Reference Bureau

Center for International Media AssistanceMay 28, 2009

Who Are Youth?

• The United Nations defines “youth” as those ages 15-24, a definition first derived during the International Youth Year in 1985. “Children” are those below the age of 15. All UN youth statistics are shown for age 15-24.

• The UN also allows for children to be those up to the age of 18 so that they might be covered under the UN’s Convention on the Rights of the Child.

• Many individual countries limit youth to those below the age of majority (treated as an adult under the law), frequently age 18.

• A major 2005 National Research Council study defined youth as ages 10-24.

• The UN also distinguishes between teenagers (13 - 19) and “young adults” (20-24).

• Because ready access to age data in many developing countries is in five year age groups, analysis using many specialized age groups can be difficult.

Projected World Youth Population, Ages 15–24, 1950 - 2050

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

More developed regions

Less developed regions

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision

Billions

Projected World Youth Population, Ages 15–24, by Region, 1950 - 2050

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Africa

Asia

Lat. Amer./Carib.


Billions

The “Youth Bulge” and the “Demographic Dividend”

• The youth bulge is a somewhat vague concept, used with varying definitions or, at times, with no clear definition at all.

• It may simply mean a large number of youth with the colorful term “bulge” only serving to confound the issue.

• The bulge may be defined as those ages 15–24 or 15–29 as a percentage of the adult population, which may be adults age 30 or above or adults in the prime working ages 30 and above.

• The demographic dividend is related to the bulge in that it is usually described in terms of a larger group in the working ages (especially the younger working ages) relative to those ages 0-14.

• For that to happen, it is necessary that fertility decline to rather low levels so that the 0-4 age group is smaller than 5-9 for the first time. That has only begun to happen in some developing countries and is quite distant in most.

Graphing the Youth Bulge, Population 15–29 As a Percent of 30+Is a Large Number in the Young Working Age a Benefit by Itself?

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140Percent

Thailand

Uganda


Yes, in fact, I think the big change in India is that over the last 40 years we've gone from seeing a population as a burden to population as human capital. And the demographic dividend in particular arises because population growth rates have slowed down. And so we have a huge hump of people in the working age of 15-65, which is typically when economies grow very rapidly.

---- Nandan Nilekani, co-founder of Infosys Marketplace, April 2, 2009

Nandan Nilekani on the Demographic Dividend

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

Females

Population Pyramid, India, 2006 – Demographic Dividend?

Population Reference Bureau projections, based on 2001 Census of India

Age

Percent of total population

Males

3 2 1 0 1 2 3

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75+

Females

Population Pyramid, Thailand, 2005 – Perhaps This Is the Demographic Dividend

Age

Percent of total population

Males


Nigeria Japan

Population 2008 (millions) 148 128

Population 2050 282 95

Lifetime Births per Woman 5.9 1.3

Annual Number of Births 6,300,000 1,100,000

Percent of Population Below Age 15 45 13

Population Below Age 15 66,000,000 17,000,000

Population Ages 15-24 30,000,000 13,000,000

Percent of Population Age 65+ 3 21

Life Expectancy at Birth 47 82

Annual Number of Infant Deaths 630,000 2,9002008 World Population Data Sheet of the Population Reference Bureau

The “Demographic Divide”

The Example of Nigeria and Japan

ca. 1980 ca. 2008

Western Africa 46 44

Middle Africa 43 46

Eastern Africa 46 44

Northern Africa 44 33

Southern Africa 42 33

India 41 32

China 32 19

1980 and 2008 World Population Data Sheets of the Population Reference Bureau

Population Under Age 15 (Percent)

Around 1980 and 2008

The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime if the rate of childbearing of a given year were to remain constant.

An example from Nigeria:

The Total Fertility Rate

Age of mother Births per 1,000 women

15-19 122

20-24 224

25-29 265

30-34 242

35-39 161

40-44 88

45-49 42

Sum (TFR) times five 5720

2008 Demographic and Health Survey of Nigeria, preliminary report

Total Fertility Rate, Five African Countries, 1970, 2000/2003 and 2006/2008

6.6

7.4

6.97.1

6.05.7

5.9

4.4

6.9

3.2

5.7

6.2

4.0

6.7

3.1

Nigeria Zambia Ghana Uganda Egypt

1970 2000/2003 2006/2008

United Nations Population Division, Demographic and Health Surveys

Lifetime children per woman

Total Fertility Rate, Five Asian Countries, 1970, 2000/2003 and 2006/2008

5.5 5.4

6.3

4.5

7.9

3.2

2.6

3.5

1.3

3.7

2.92.6

3.3

1.2

3.6

India Indonesia Philippines South Korea Jordan

1970 2000/2003 2006/2008

United Nations Population Division, Demographic and Health Surveys, Population Reference Bureau estimates


6.36.5

5.8

6.3

5.6

4.4

3.8

4.7

2.92.6

4.4

3.5

4.0

2.62.4

Guatemala Bolivia Haiti Peru Colombia

1970 2000/2003 2006/2008

United Nations Population Division, Demographic and Health Surveys, Population Reference Bureau estimates


Total Fertility Rate, Five Latin American Countries, 1970, 2000/2003 and 2006/2008

Total Fertility Rate in Pakistan, by Wealth Quintile, 2006-2007

3.0

3.4

4.1

4.5

5.8

Highest

Fourth

Middle

Second

Lowest

2006-2007 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey

Female Secondary School Enrollment as a Percentage of Boys' 1990 and 2000/2004

73

100

72

63

41

52

60

85

107

92

81

45

111

81

Africa Latin America Asia Ghana Benin Bangladesh India

1990 2000/2004

Population Reference Bureau, World’s Youth Data Sheet, 2006

Percent Enrolled in Seconday School, Male/Female, 2000/2004

40

100

64

47

38

45

58

34

107

59

38

17

5047

Africa Latin America Asia Ghana Benin Bangladesh India

Male Female

Population Reference Bureau, World’s Youth Data Sheet, 2006

youth matters: the demographics of youth around the world carl haub senior demographer, population...

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