yulia menshova, the committee for nature use ... · pdf filethe committee for nature use,...

Yulia Menshova,

The Committee for Nature Use,

Environmental Protection

and Ecological Safety,

City of St.Petersburg

South-East Finland-Russia ENPI CBC 2007-2013

CliPLivE Project

This project is co-funded by the European Union, the Russian Federation and the Republic of Finland


CliPLivE Project


CliPLivE Project precondition

• climate change;

• geological risks of St.Petersburg area

main outcome

ground for the draft of Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for St.Petersburg Area

objectives

• set of particular geological and environmental hazards will be identified in order to compile the methodology of integrated geological and environmental risk assessment • matrixes of geological and environmental risks for 2 different climate change scenarios will be elaborated; • list of recommended adaptation measures to identified climate change impacts will be developed at joined workshops with the stakeholders

basis for future detailed estimations and assessments


CliPLivE Project


Climate change

forecasting for

St.Petersburg

area…

temperature

precipitation quantity

precipitation intensity

Gulf of Finland

water level

ice cover duration

surface water flooding

quantity

↑ by 2,8-4,0°C

↑ by 228-262 mm

↑ to 76 l/sec/ha

↑ by 0,4-1,0 m

↓ by 2 months

↑ by 40%

Input for Climate Change Adaptation Strategy development:

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

10,0

11,0

12,0

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

2013

2018

2023

2028

2033

2038

2043

2048

2053

2058

2063

2068

2073

2078

2083

2088

2093

Инструменальные данные ECHAM

MIROC_m INM

Linear (Инструменальные данные) Linear (ECHAM)

Linear (MIROC_m) Linear (INM)

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1971

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

2003

2007

2011

2015

2019

2023

2027

2031

2035

2039

2043

2047

2051

2055

2059

2063

2067

2071

2075

2079

2083

2087

2091

2095

2099

Данные измерений ECHAM

MIROC_m INM

Linear (Данные измерений) Linear (ECHAM)

Linear (MIROC_m) Linear (INM)

Precipitation quantity, by 2100 year Temperature, by 2100 year


CliPLivE Project


Assessment area: 30 pipe sections; For 3 sections design sewer pipeline load is 100%



Precipitation intensity

60 l/sec/ha

63,3 l/sec/ha

77 l/sec/ha

Precipitation intencity:

rainfall vulnerable zones assessment – pilot sites


CliPLivE Project



… and geological risks

for St.Petersburg area

Reliable layer depth

Biogas generation

Neotectonic phenomena

Paleovalleys

Radon occurrence

Surface slope steepness

Karst and suffosion

Headwater impact

Groundwater underflooding

Surface water flooding

Coastal erosion

climate-dependent


CliPLivE Project



Climate-dependent geological risk maps (incl. integrated risk) based on

risk matrix: current and future climate


CliPLivE Project


Flood Protection Facility of St.Petersburg (1977-2011):

protect the Neva Bay

BUT increase the inundation and coastal erosion probability

for the unprotected Kyrortny district (appr. by 10%)


CliPLivE Project


District

Innundation area, ha / %

Current

climate

Optimistic

scenario

Pessimistic

scenario

(sea level ↑

by 0,4 m)

(sea level ↑

by 1,0 m)

Petrodvortsovy 534,0 \ 5,0 656,1 \ 6,1 956,2 \ 8,9

Kurortny 553,1 \ 2,0 711,6 \ 2,6 879,2 \ 3,2

Kronshtadtsky 635,0 \ 32,6 799,4 \ 41,1 1118,6 \ 57,5

Primorsky 1923,6 \ 17,5 2260,1 \ 20,5 3309,5 \ 30,1

TOTAL 4971,1 \ 3,4 6090,6 \ 4,2 8857,7 \ 6,1

Surface water flooding –

probability once per 10 years

Surface water flooding –

probability once per 100 years

District

Innundation area, ha / %

Current

climate

Optimistic

scenario

Pessimistic

scenario

(sea level ↑

by 0,4 m)

(sea level ↑

by 1,0 m)

Petrodvortsovy 607,5 \ 5,7 819,8 \ 7,7 1036,8 \ 9,7

Kronshtadtsky 892,7 \ 45,9 982,9 \ 50,5 1242,8 \ 63,8

Kurortny 1034,3 \ 3,8 1142,9 \ 4,2 1382,5 \ 5,1

Primorsky 2153,1 \ 19,6 2876,2 \ 26,2 3834,2 \ 34,9

TOTAL 6280,9 \ 4,3 8038,8 \ 5,6 11116,8 \ 7,7

Recreation

zones losts:

5500-1400 ha!


Balance of St.Petersburg’s territories exposed to adverse water impact:

current and future climate


CliPLivE Project


District

Coastal erosion area, ha

Optimistic

scenario

(storms 1/25 y;

sea level ↑

by 0,4 m)

Pessimistic

scenario

(storms 1/10 y;

sea level ↑

by 1,0 m)

Kronshtadtsky 22,0 53,3

Primorsky 81,0 160,8

Kurortny 264,3 564,8

TOTAL 367,3 778,8

Coastal erosion, forecasting

Profile

Optimistic scenario Pessimistic scenario

Recession

due to

storm

activity, m

Recession

due to

SLR, m

Overall

recession,

m

Recession

due to

storm

activity,

m

Recession

due to

SLR, m

Overall

recession,

m

Komarovo 19 6 25 38 16 54

Solnechnoe 15 9 24 26 22 48

Olgino 12 12 24 20 30 50

Ushkovo 8 16 24 9 40 49

Kronshtadt 5 16 21 6 40 46

FPB 0 100 100 0 250 250

Sestroretsk 0 200 200 0 500 500

Recession in Kurortny district,

Kronshtadt and FPB, forecasting

Current recession:

On average – 0,5 m/year

Ushkovo, Komarovo, Repino – 0,8-1,0 m/year

Solnechnoe, Sestroretsk – min

Neva bay points (300-years Park) – 1,5 m/year


CliPLivE Project



the key impacts on different municipal economy services:

Transport network

and transport

maintaining roads and tracks and ensuring safe and uninterrupted traffic under

challenging weather conditions (snowstorms, snowfalls, fogs, heat and cold waves etc.)

Engineering network destroy network integrity, corrosion of thermodynamically unstable materials, dangerous

ice crust formation and power transmission line accidents

Construction extreme atmospheric loads (snow, wind and ice loads, as well as temperature impacts),

adverse effect of natural water and failure to fully comply with the operating regulations

cause destruction

Urban planning

extreme atmospheric loads (snow, wind and ice loads, as well as temperature impacts),

adverse effect of natural water and failure to fully comply with the operating regulations

cause destruction

Green area

development increased number of days with a fire-hazardous environment as well as increased

probability of mass pest reproduction provoked by global warming

BUT improvement of the conditions for recreation and leisure facilities for the population

increased populations of warm-season pest such as aphid and Colorado potato beetle,

BUT increase in the crop yield in the city’s agricultural lands due to favorable saturated

warming

Agriculture

Biodiversity species’ introduction


CliPLivE Project


Economic consequences

• the changing profile of the heating period and air conditioning

period → problems in energy saving and energy efficiency

• increase in the volume of specific water requirement,

incl. consumption of household water

• discharging untreated (or poorly treated) storm effluents →

environmental damage compensation

• disconnection from water supply in case of accidents on waterways

the expenditures and losses of potable water

• additional expenditures to improve the water quality

• adverse impact of natural water → gas pipeline heaving, breach of

integrity, etc. → heat and gas supply interruption

• steaming time losses, long-term navigation season, enhancement of

cargo and passenger traffic, increase in the number of late flight

departures and arrivals

• reduction of labour productivity and work performance

The key problems:

Climatically Neutral Economy

&

Sustainable Development


CliPLivE Project


Uncertainties

of responsibility

Long-term process

Interdisciplinary problem

Uncertainties of CC factors

Challenges for decision-makers


CliPLivE Project


to reduce

the environmental risks related

to climate change aiming at the

socioeconomic growth and

sustainable development

of St. Petersburg by means

of implementing adaptive

measures to certain sectors and

assets of municipal economy

to identify the key

environmental risks

due to climate change

as well as the sectors and

assets of St. Petersburg’s

municipal economy which are

most vulnerable to the changes

recorded and predicted;

to identify a list of

activities aimed at addressing

the problems related to the

impact of climate change

The purpose and objectives of the Recommendations:


CliPLivE Project


Adaptive measures should aim at addressing the main priorities…

1) to increase

the information potential

2) to strengthen the managerial potential,

developing the legislative framework

3) to shape and enhance

the adaptive potential –

economical and social

damage have to be assessed!

4) to increase the adaptive capacity using

technological solutions


CliPLivE Project


2nd • amending and harmonizing with European standarts the existing statutory and

regulatory documents with a view to modify the guidelines of structural engineering

and operation of buildings and facilities

Climate change factor

SR 131.13330.2012 «Building climatology» (from 2013, January 1st) – doesn’t take into account CC, Baltic sea level rise, snow and ice cover changes

Regional construction norms

SR 20.13330.2011 «Loads and impacts» -- ice loadings aren't reconsidered

RMD 20-19-2013 «Snow loads»

SNiP «Sewarage. External network», SNiP «Heating and ventilation»

• taking into account the climatic factor for developing documents related to urban

planning, land management and socioeconomic development of the region

• improving collaboration between government agencies, self-government bodies, private

business, and the public with a view to develop effective and economically beneficial

adaptive measures

• developing a system to insure weather and climate risks


CliPLivE Project


Stages of Recommendations implementation

Conditions should be

created to develop

the information,

managerial and adaptive

potential

of St. Petersburg

Effective implementation

of the adaptive measures

developed in particular

sectors of municipal

economy.

Proper analysis of the

current and anticipated

development of these

sectors based on the

regional strategies

1st stage

• Identification of detailed plans

for implementing the activities

• Establishment of intermediate

performance indicators

• Formation of a reporting

system

• Identification of

implementation weaknesses and

deficiencies

• Revising of federal and

regional documents

Proposals will be prepared to

amend and supplement the

Recommendations

Monitoring

2nd stage


CliPLivE Project


CliPLivE

innovations:

Further

steps:

balance of SPb’s territories exposed to adverse natural hazards’

and geological processes’ impact (area, buildings and population)

consequences for municipal economy services and public health

(qualitive analysis)

specific adaptation measures to adverse water impact for SPb

Conception on Coast Protection for SPb

SPb CCAS draft is expected to be presented on the Ecological

Council led by Governor of St.Petersburg (June, 2015)

special local Working Group on CCAS modification consisted

of authorities, scientists, NGOs etc. should be set up

additional detailed assessments and further implementation

of protection measures for the pilot coastal site (Kurortny district)

is expected to start this year (October, 2015)

economic, environmental and health damage estimations

need to be done (one of the main purposes of future project)

system/interactive service of natural hazards’ risks management

need to be developed (results of potential damage assessments

might be included)


CliPLivE Project


Thank you for attention!

And looking forward

to active mutual cooperation

on CC adaptigation!

yulia menshova, the committee for nature use ... · pdf filethe committee for nature use,...

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