1 ohio state university extension cindi kerschbaumer, omega district bret allphin, buckeye hills...

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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION

• Cindi Kerschbaumer, OMEGA District

• Bret Allphin, Buckeye Hills District

• Mike Lloyd, OSU Extension Noble County

• Cindy Bond, OSU Extension Guernsey County

• Nancy Bowen Ellzey, OSU Extension


Building Sustainable Communities in Ohio’s Shale Region:

Leveraging Manufacturing Clusters and Local Assets with Strategic Planning

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Program Objectives

• Situation Overview

• EDA Project Overview

• Project Partners

• Scope of Work

• Timeline

• IMPLAN Economic Impact Analysis


Situation Overview

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Midstream infrastructure







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Midstream

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Diversification is Essential

• Focus on diversifying economy.

• Make investments that make community more attractive to locate

new businesses.

• Encourage small businesses, entrepreneurs, and innovation.

• Build Human Capital - High levels of human capital have been

strongly associated with high regional economic growth rates

(Simon, 1998).


EDA Project Overview

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Scope of Work

1. Advanced Industry Cluster Analysis

2. Industry Capacity Assessment

3. Asset Mapping

4. Sustainable Strategic Planning to Elevate and Expand CEDS

5. Develop Implementation Strategies

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EDA Proposal Project Partners

• U.S. Department of Commerce - Economic Development Administration

• Ohio State University Extension Core Project Team

• OSU Extension Shale Working Group

• Regional Economic Development Organizations:

• Eastgate Regional Council of Governments

• Northeast Ohio Four County Regional Planning and Development Organization

• Ohio Mid-Eastern Governments Association

• Buckeye Hills-Hocking Valley Regional Development District

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1) Advanced Industry Cluster Analysis

• The primary objective of the cluster analysis is to better understand

to what degree the regional economy changes as a result of shale

development, specifically level and type of employment, in addition

to sectorial changes within the economy. We will measure changes

using employer enterprise data that is accessed through the Center

for Human Resource Research (CHRR) Workforce Data Quality

Initiative (WDQI) restricted access database and public data sets

including the census and IMPLAN.

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2) Industry Capacity Assessment

• The overall goal of the industry capacity assessment is to acquire

specific data from businesses in the twenty-five county region

illustrating the strengths, assets, and supply chain supporting

manufacturing advancements related to the shale industry and to

determine how reliant the businesses are on continued shale

production in eastern Ohio.

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3) Asset Mapping

Regional assets that may be included in the mapping initiative include:

• Economic Data from the Advanced Cluster Analysis

• Results from Industry Capacity Assessment

• Population Demographics

• Education / R&D Institutions

• Financial Capital

• Physical Shale Infrastructure

• Shale Energy Development Activity

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4) Sustainable Strategic Planning to Elevate and Expand CEDS

1. Shale Development 101: Preparing your community for shale

development

2. Creating a Community Inventory

3. Economic Impacts of Shale Development

4. Social Impacts of Shale Development

5. Environmental Impacts of Shale Development

6. Bringing it all together – Sustainable Community Goals

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5) Develop Implementation Strategies

• A key strength in this proposal is the seamless

integration of economic research, analysis, and

sustainable strategic planning into the regional

economic development districts CEDS.


Economic Impact Analysis

Initial Findings

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Advanced Industry Cluster Analysis

Analyzing CHRR Data Finding industry concentrations

(location quotient analysis)Finding industry strengths

(shift share analysis)

Preparing CHRR DataStep 1: Organizing Step 2: Aggregating

Accessing Data SourcesIMPLAN CHRR

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What Will we Measure with IMPLAN?

IMPLAN is an input/output economic model that can measure economic change (economic and demographic) based on industry (shale) contribution over time

We will measure economic indicators such as value added, total output and cluster concentration

We will also measure demographic indicators including population and household income

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IMPLAN and Average Household Income

Average household income in IMPLAN measures for:• Government retirement benefits• Transfer payments including social security• Employer paid benefits (cash or non-cash)• Investment income including royalties• Rental income• Non-cash payments such as subsidized or public housing

Vs. census household income which measures for:• Income received directly by individuals and reported on long form.


OMEGA District

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OMEGA District Employment Trends (2008-2012)

Source: IMPLAN

2008 2010 2012

Employment 261220 265233 272212

255,000

257,000

259,000

261,000

263,000

265,000

267,000

269,000

271,000

273,000

OMEGA District Employment Trends

Employment

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OMEGA District Population Trends (2008-2012)

Source: IMPLAN

2008 2010 2012

Population 582238 580178 586831

577,000

579,000

581,000

583,000

585,000

587,000

OMEGA District Population Trends

Population

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OMEGA District Household Income Trends (2008-2012)

Source: IMPLAN

2008 2010 2012

Household Income 70195 73014 73646

$68,500

$69,500

$70,500

$71,500

$72,500

$73,500

OMEGA District Avg. Household Income Trends

Household Income

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OMEGA Top Ten Sectors by Employment and Employment Change (2008-2012)

Sector2008

Employment2012

Employment%

Change

Food and drinking places 16,919 17,983 5.9%

State & local government (education) 16,067 14,057 -14.3%

State & local government (non-education) 12,077 13,594 11.2%

Private hospitals 9,356 9,863 5.1%

Nursing and residential care facilities 8,524 8,892 5.5%

Wholesale trade 8,381 8,370 -.1%

Retail and general merchandise 7,074 6,781 -4.3%

Civic, social, professionals and similar orgs 6,240 6,134 -1.7%

Offices of physicians, dentists and other health 6,118 6,732 9.1%

Construction of new nonresidential structures 5,665 6,127 2.3%

Source: IMPLAN

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OMEGA 2012 Industry Clusters

Industry EmploymentConcentration

(LQ)

Primary Metal Mfg 2,178 7.73

Glass & Ceramics 906 3.25

Mining 742 2.48

Forest & Wood Products 4,422 2.46

Fabricated Metal Product Mfg 4,369 2.38

Chemicals & Chemical Based Products 6,301 2.27

Machinery Mfg 2,419 2.25

Electrical Equipment, Appliance & Component Mfg 510 1.74

Advanced Materials 10,715 1.71

Manufacturing Supercluster 10,528 1.45

Source: Statsamerica.org

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Summary• OMEGA District is on an upward trajectory in terms of population,

employment and household income growth.

• The population growth rate, 6,650 people between 2010-2012, is especially significant.

• OMEGA is comprises almost 85% of producing wells, with over half of those in Carroll County alone.

• With a heavy concentration of producing wells in the OMEGA District, it is leading the way to demonstrate indicators as a result of shale development.

Source: IMPLAN


Buckeye Hills/Hocking Hills District

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BH/HH District Employment Trends (2008-2012)

Source: IMPLAN

2008 2010 2012

Employment 95230 102982 100240

91,000

93,000

95,000

97,000

99,000

101,000

103,000

BH/HH District Employment Trends

Employment

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BH/HH District Population Trends (2008-2012)

Source: IMPLAN

2008

2010

2012

250,500251,500252,500253,500254,500255,500256,500257,500258,500259,500

2008 2010 2012

Population 254824 253046 258699

BH/HH District Population Trends

Population

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BH/HH District Household Income Trends (2008-2012)

Source: IMPLAN

2008

2010

2012

$65,500 $66,500 $67,500 $68,500 $69,500 $70,500

2008 2010 2012

Household Income 67454 70678 67617

Household Income

Household Income

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BH/HH Top Ten Sectors by Employment and Employment Change (2008-2012)

Sector2008

Employment2012 Employment %

Change

State & local government (education) 14,262 12,251 -16.4%

Food and drinking places 6,188 6,873 10%

State & local government (non-education) 4,615 7,188 35.8%

Nursing and residential care facilities 3,046 3,429 11.2%

Civic, social, professionals and similar orgs 2,888 2,693 -7.2%

Offices of physicians, dentists and other health 2,132 2,520 15.4%

Construction of new nonresidential structures 1,924 2,100 8.4%

Private household operations 2,062 Dropped from top ten N/A

Private hospitals 2,016 Dropped from top ten N/A

Transport by truck Not on list in 08 1,850 N/A

Source: IMPLAN

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BH/HH 2012 Industry Clusters

Industry EmploymentConcentration

(LQ)

Primary Metal Mfg 260 5.95

Glass & Ceramics 506 4.91

Chemicals & Chemical Based Products 2,869 2.91

Mining 199 2.07

Education & Knowledge Creation 4,825 1.86

Transportation Equipment Mfg 78 1.46

Fabricated metal Product Mfg 807 1.31

Forest & Wood Products 742 1.16

Biomedical/Biotechnical 8,445 1.12

Machinery Mfg 400 1.01

Source: Statsamerica.org

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Summary• Changes are just beginning to emerge in the BH/HH District, but

not all in the positive direction.

• Household income dropped along with employment between 2010-2012, an indicator that may be temporary requiring further investigation.

• A new sector to the top ten, transport by truck, and significantly increased population figures – up almost 6,000 between 2010-2012 help to tell the story of change.

• Number of producing wells currently at 41 vs. 324 in OMEGA, but with 153 permits issued (76 in Noble and 64 in Monroe counties), the region’s shale industry is taking flight.

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What’s Next?

Continue to analyze data to measure economic changes that occur using IMPLAN and CHRR data sets, in addition to new data being released

Round out list of indicators to include socio-economic changes Housing, environmental, education, public services, crime, etc.

Combine IMPLAN results with socio-economic changes and survey research to “tell the story”

Review results annually and at five year intervals


Thank You!

1 ohio state university extension cindi kerschbaumer, omega district bret allphin, buckeye hills...

Documents

osu extension slide

strategic planning slide

shale industry

county regional planning

industry capacity assessment

regional economy changes

bulleted text

result of shale development