11/16/041 using smart growth and growth visioning in developing a regional growth forecast by...
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11/16/04 1
Using Smart Growth and Growth Visioning in Developing a Regional Growth Forecast
BySeong-Youn Simon Choi, Ph. D.
Southern California Association of Governments
Presented at the International Solar Cities Congress 2004, Daegu, Korea, November 14-18, 2004.
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What is New?
• Growth Vision Forecast: Trend + Local Input (Local Vision) + “Regional Vision”– Growth visioning: survey and public
workshops. – Develop growth vision principles & smart
growth strategies
• A concrete growth forecast
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Purpose of Study• Reviews macro forces behind the movement
of smart growth and growth visioning in urban planning and development.
• Assesses the role of smart growth and growth visioning in developing a regional forecast.
• Discusses some of the technical and policy challenges in developing a regional “vision” growth forecast.
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Federal Role• Two major forces have driven the federal government's
role in regional transportation: transportation funding and planning, and air quality protections.
• Transportation funding and planning is mandated by the ISTEA (now TEA-21) and overseen by U.S. Department of Transportation (US DOT), while air quality efforts are guided by the Clean Air Act and overseen by the Environmental Planning Agency (EPA).
• The two efforts, once separate, are now coordinated on a variety of levels. With the introduction of the ISTEA in 1991 and the CAAA in 1990, the regional planning process has significantly changed.
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Comparison of Planning Aspects between Before and After ISTEA
Aspect Status Quo ISTEA Goals 1. General MPO role Removed from major
decisions Broker, leader, consensus builder
2. Long range plan Single scenario Focus on 1 or 2 modes
Alternative scenarios Multi-modal and inter-modal. Focus on system performance. Incorporates 15 factors.
3. Links between RTP and TIP
Not clearly established Clearly established. TIP – strategic management tool.
4. Financially constrained Plan/TIP
No. Yes.
5. Public role Participation Representation
Limited—e.g., hearings on draft Plan/TIP. Limited
Actively encouraged. Early and substantive. Broad- public/private sector, citizens
(Lyons, 1994, p.25).
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Regional Initiative & Networking
• Growth visioning: Portland, Denver, Salt Lake City, and Chicago have used this growth visioning to successfully get in front of growth.
• Smart Growth Network (1996): the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency joined with several non-profit and government organizations to form the Smart Growth Network (SGN). The Network was formed in response to increasing community concerns about the need for new ways to grow that boost the economy, protect the environment, and enhance community vitality.
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Growth Visioning
• Survey
• Public Workshops
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•187 Cities
•38,000 square miles
•6 Counties
•10th largest economy in the world
•18 million people
•Projected to add 5 million more in next 25 years
The SCAG RegionThe SCAG Region
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Project Vision: To Plan Without BoundariesPortland, Denver, Salt Lake City, and Chicago have used this process to successfully get in front of growth
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Survey• Concerns:
– Traffic congestion (86%),
– Air pollution (84%),
– Water/grounded water pollution (83%)
• Policy options: – Planning for growth (78%),
– High density newer neighborhoods with careful design (72%),
– Redevelop blighted areas in existing neighborhoods (71%).
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Public Workshops
• 13 workshops, more than 1000 participants
• Growth game: Participants build scenarios
Public Workshops:Participants build scenarios
The Workshop Game PiecesOverview
e.g. Pasadena, Santa Monica
City
Per Chip – 360 Acres55 Housing Units/Acre100 Jobs/Acre
3/43/4milemile
e.g. Brea, Ventura, Orange, San Juan Capistrano
Town
Per Chip – 360 Acres25 Housing Units/Acre20 Jobs/Acre
3/43/4milemile
e.g. South Coast Plaza, Ontario Mills
Activity Center
Per Chip – 360 Acres15 Housing Units/Acre15 Jobs/Acre
3/43/4milemile
Employment District
Per Chip – 360 Acres75 Jobs/Acre
3/43/4milemile
Residential Subdivision
Single Family, 7-10 Units per
Acre
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The Workshop Exercise:
Starter Chip Sets
The Workshop Exercise:
Starter Chip Sets
Four different Four different ways to ways to
accommodate accommodate projected projected
growth for the growth for the regionregion
#2
116 Chips116 Chips
#3
127 Chips127 Chips
#4
164 Chips164 Chips
#1
103 Chips103 Chips
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Public Workshops
• Presentations of alternative growth scenarios• Analysis of scenarios established four overriding
growth vision principles and smart growth strategies
• Positive result: demonstrated the importance of transportation corridors.
• Challenging issue: balance small area growth allocation with a regional perspective.
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Growth Vision Principles and Strategies
MOBILITYLocate new housing near existing jobs and new jobs near existing housing
Encourage transit-oriented development
Promote a variety of travel choices
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Growth Vision Principles and Strategies
LIVABILITYPromote infill development and redevelopment to revitalize existing communities
Promote mixed-use development
Promote walkable communities
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Growth Vision Principles and Strategies
PROSPERITYProvide, in each community, a variety of housing types to meet the needs of all income levels
Support growth of industries that offer high-paying jobs and allow upward mobility
Ensure environmental justice
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Growth Vision Principles and Strategies
SUSTAINABLITY
Preserve rural, agricultural and environmentally sensitive areas
Focus development in urban centers
Develop strategies to accommodate growth that use resources efficiently, eliminate pollution and reduce waste
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Scenario Planning• Integrated land use – transportation analysis• Two “Bookends” along with several traditional
scenarios• PILUT 1 – Infill Scenario• PILUT 2 – Fifth Ring Scenario
• Hybrid “Growth Vision” Scenario – Built From: • Survey • Public Workshops• PILUT Scenarios
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PILUT 1 ScenarioIncremental Growth
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PILUT 2 ScenarioIncremental Growth
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Evaluation of Growth Scenarios
• Five growth scenarios
• Two transportation networks: baseline & plan.
• Use performance results of growth scenarios. mobility, air quality, energy consumption.
• Preferred growth alternative.
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Benefits of Smart Growth on TAE Measures
TAE Measures Baseline* Smart Growth** Change*** % Change**** Benefits of Smart Growth*****
Transportation
Transit (Person Trips) (millions) 1.49 2.22 0.73 48.8% 24.2%
Avg Trip Length: Home-to-Work Travel Time (minutes) 25.9 20.6 -5.3 -20.5% 15.3%
Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) (millions) 488.76 459.69 -29.07 -5.9% 29.7%
Vehicle Hours Travelled (VHT) (millions) 15.36 13.09 -2.27 -14.8% 16.3%
Vehicle Hours Delay (VHD) (millions) 3.69 2.13 -1.56 -42.2% 11.9%
Air Quality (tons)
ROG 87.3 82.1 -5.2 -5.9% 39.2%
CO 659.3 608.2 -51.2 -7.8% 26.0%
NOx 135.9 133.6 -2.3 -1.7% 64.2%
PM10 24.4 22.4 -2.0 -8.2% 23.4%
SOx 3.0 2.8 -0.2 -6.8% 25.0%
Energy Consumption (1000 gallons)
Gasoline 24569 22364 -2206 -9.0% 22.6%
11/16/04 30The 2004 SCAG Regional Transportation
Plan
Household Growth 2010-2030 (without Growth Vision)
11/16/04 31The 2004 SCAG Regional Transportation
Plan
Household Growth 2010-2030 (with Growth Vision)
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Housing Sprawl at the RSA Level
0.68 0.68
0.570.54
0.52
0.46
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Concentration Centralization
1970 2000 2030
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Employment Sprawl at the RSA Level
0.720.74
0.610.590.57
0.51
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Concentration Centralization
1970 2000 2030
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Urban Sprawl at the TAZ Level
% ChangeIndicators 2000 2030 2000-2030
Housing Concentration 0.3842 0.3700 -3.7%Centralization 0.4669 0.4713 1.0%
Employment Concentration 0.7146 0.6810 -4.7%Centralization 0.6183 0.5434 -12.1%
Note: Concentration is measured using Delta index (Hoover, 1941; Duncan et al, 1961),
Centralization is measured using Absolute Centralization index (Massey & denton, 1988)
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Smart Growth at the TAZ Level
% ChangeIndicators 2000 2030 2000-2030
Housing Mixed Land Use 0.4669 0.4713 1.0%Clustering* 1.2340 1.2106 -1.9%
Employment Mixed Land Use 0.3321 0.3387 2.0%Note: Mixed land use is measured using Interaction index (Massey & Denton, 1988), clustering (compact development) is measured using Spatial Proximity index (White, 1986).* Clustering index applies to both housing and employment.
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Findings• Federal role (CAAA, ISTEA) and regional
initiative (growth visioning) are important.– Local implementation strategies (2% strategies) will
play a decisive role. • Growth visioning was effective as an educational
and learning tool. • Beneficial effects of smart growth on TAE
measures• Small effects of smart growth on the regional
spatial structure. Sprawl continues with smart growth.
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Technical and Policy Challenges• Growth visioning: how to balance small area
growth allocation with a regional perspective• Development of a regional growth forecast: not a
simple application of technical forecasting method, but a combination of techniques & professional judgments. – Hard to translate vision into numbers due to judgmental
elements.– Hard to duplicate the land use modeling process
(30m*30m grid cell).– Is forecasting art?
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Technical and Policy Challenges
• Tremendous spatial changes are not expected with smart growth:– Vision seems an extension (a slight
modification) of baseline trends with local visions.
– Smart growth is a “small scale”.– Do we need a “regional scale” smart growth?