141016 h1 05 bsria giles final

1Excellence in Market Intelligence 1

Global HVAC Trends

Andrew GilesChillventa

ForumOctober 2014

3Excellence in Market Intelligence

Our main methodology – expert interviews top players

3

Small companies

Large companies

Source: Market Research Society

Interview all of these

Interview a sample of theseDirector of

BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence•29 years at BSRIA•Natural Sciences

Cambridge [email protected]


Global HVAC markets agendaAgenda

4


AC Global trends

Critical

Very Certain

Energy Efficiency and renewables

Market Globalization & Industry consolidation

Refrigerants

VRF vs. Chiller

Market Drivers

Joint VenturesAnd Alliances

European Economy

Market Restraints

Emerging CountriesMaterial

cost

Chinese growth slowdown

Smart buildings smart homes

Legislation

Ventilation/DOAS

US recovery


Global Major Regions HVAC Market Value

Europe analysis based on following countries: Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep., France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK

Total 2013 market value: €100bn

NAmerica€22.7bln

China€39.0bln

Japan€14.0bn Europe

€25.9bln


World air conditioning market, 2012-2017

Total 2014: 128.5 million units

Total 2013: Euro 72.3 billion

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Top 12 Expectations for 2014

Ranking Country Trend Market Value* Market growth**(%) Hot products

UKGermany

ItalySaudi Arabia

Australia

Russia

India

S. Korea

Brazil

USAJapan

China

12 + 7%803 Ductless, VRF, Chillers

11 833 + 5% Ductless, VRF

10 959 - 13% None

9 974 + 2% None992 + 13% Ductless, VRF8

7 1,016 + 1% None

* In Euro million for 2014 * * Forecasted growth rate from 2014 to 2015

6 1,657 + 14% Ductless, VRF, Chillers

1,678 + 1% None52,172 + 16% Ductless, VRF, Chillers48,255 + 1% None310,302 + 9% Ductless, VRF, Chillers

25,827 + 3% VRF, Chillers

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World fastest growing markets, CAGR 2012-17

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Warm spots >5-10% growthCold spots <0% growth

Hot spots >10% growth

India

Indonesia

Russia

ColombiaNigeria

Brazil

VenezuelaVietnam

China

Argentina

UK

South Africa

Mexico

Turkey


Europe AC market growth – 2013-14e

UK France RussiaSpainItaly

30%

24%

18%

12%

6%

0%

-6%

-12%

-18%

-24%

-30%

GermanyTurkey

Splits+VRF (by volume)

Chillers (by value)


Expected future growth for Europe (CAGR – 2012-2017)

UK France RussiaSpainItaly

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

-8%

-10%

GermanyTurkey

Splits+VRF (by volume)

Chillers (by value)


Global minisplit market – 2014 e

Top 10 countries in Europe in 2014 by units (number of outdoor units) – 6.5 million units

representing 6% of global total


Global minisplit market – Europe trends

What we might have said earlier this year

?? Now highly uncertain, BSRIA researching


World inverter air conditioning market

2013 total market sizes

Inverters (single + multi) by volume


Global drivers

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Importance

Degree of Adoptionlow

high

medhigh

med

• In EU countries supermarkets and energy efficiency are key• In India, China and Brazil, improving the food chain is a main driver

EU Legislation/Outlawing of R22; Directive 2009/125/EC on Ecodesign1 a framework for energy reduction

Supermarkets –Energy Efficiency/Green credentials

Improve food chain/avoid

waste

Discount stores – Lidl,

Aldi etc.

Smaller supermarkets

Design

Reliability

Quick installation

Price of Copper

Reduce noise levels

Inverters


Growth in refrigeration, by country, by value, CAGR

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2012 total: 31,034.5 US$ million

14.5%

8.7%

7.6%

7.0%

4.2%

3.7%

2.7%

2.5%

1.6%


BSRIA as an advisor on refrigeration

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RED AMBER GREEN

Indicative energy savings Low savings Medium savings High savings

Where technology can be applied Limited application Some application, but not widespread

Universal application

Ease of application Complex Medium Simple

Maintenance of technology Complex Medium Simple

Interaction with other technologies High interaction Some interaction No interaction

Impact on water use High Medium None

Applicability to Saudi Arabia Not applicable May be applicable Applicable


ErP - Impact on products

Increase in Combined and Hybrid systemsEco Design

A +++ ≥150%

A ++ ≥125%

A + ≥98%

A ≥90%

B ≥82%

C ≥75%

D ≥36%

E ≥34%

CogenerationGas HP

Condensing boilers

Non-condensing

boilers

Ground /Water to water HP

Air to water HP

From 26/9/2015 products with Label D to G are no longer allowed to be sold

Hybrid Heat Pumps

Combined CB + ST system

+ enhanced Controls

Fuel cell

Labels mandatory from Sep. 2015

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Boiler technology shiftDomestic gas and oil boiler sales 2012 - 2017

Outside the EU marketInside the EU market‘000 units‘000 units

Source: BSRIA, based on the analysis of 9 largest European markets Source: BSRIA, based on the analysis of Turkey, Russia, China, S. Korea

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Hybrid heat pumpsMarket potential by 2020

unitsCAGR 2014-2020

+51.7%

Hybrid BoxGas cond. boiler & A/W

monobloc HP

Modulo HybridoGas cond. boiler & A/W

split HP

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2020 European heating marketTop 6 Heating market by volume of sales, 2012 – 2020 – wall hung condensing, wall hung

non-condensing , floor standing, biomass, solar thermal & heat pump

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‘000 units


Renewables sales curve until 2035Powerful drivers for new technologies after 2020

Units

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141016 h1 05 bsria giles final

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