bsria industry presentation at chillventa 2016

Making buildings better

BSRIA Industry Presentation

BRIEF SUMMARY SLIDES Chillventa 2016

For more details contact Mike Vardanian [email protected]

12 Oct 2016

2 Making buildings better BSRIA ©

BSRIA Values


Agenda

18:15 Welcome Andrew Giles

18:15 – 18:25 Testing and integration PICBV’s in Buildings Cory Chadoka

18:25 – 18:45 Global Trends in AC&R Anette Holley

18:45 – 19:00 The traditional heating markets and the growth of renewable technologies Krystyna Dawson

19:00–19:15 Keeping up with the "Smart" revolution Greg Corty

19:15-19:30 2020 Overlapping and merging markets and conclusions Andrew Giles


Testing and integration PICBV’s

in Buildings

(Pressure Independent Balancing & Control Valves )

Cory Chadoka 12 Oct 2016


BSRIA Test

• ISO/IEC 17025 accredited laboratory ( UKAS No.1053).

• Listed on NANDO as a Notified Body (NB 0480).

• Product validation and verification for:

• CE marking

• Thermal performance

• Efficiency

• Smoke emissions

• Acoustics

• Corrosion

• Benchmarking product performance and product development

• Development of bespoke test methodologies

• Physical modelling (mock-up), testing and validation

• On-site, witness and factory acceptance testing.

• Test laboratory design


What is a Pressure Independent

Control Valve?


What is a PICV?

• A PICV is a multi-functional valve combining the operation of three different valves.

• A PICV operates as a Pressure Independent Control Valve, Two-Port Control Valve and Regulating Valve.

• The valve body incorporates a differential pressure controller and a control valve element. The differential pressure controller maintains the pressure difference across the control valve element.


What is PICV?

The purpose of a Pressure Independent Control Valve (PICV) is to maintain the flow rate in a hydronic system regardless of any changes in pressure. PICV’s can be used in a number of hydronic systems such as:

• Air Handling Units (AHU)

• Fan Coils

• Chilled Beams

• Radiant Panels and Radiators

• Heater Batteries etc.


Example of PICV on an Air Handling Unit (AHU)

BMS = (Building Management System)


Benefits

• Reduced commissioning

• Maintaining design ΔT (energy efficiency)

• Simplified valve sizing

• Reduced number of valves

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiB6P6_3MXPAhUGuBQKHQQFCfAQjRwIBw&url=http://www.freepik.com/free-icon/thumbs-up_754914.htm&psig=AFQjCNFDMpDpsrU9DyqFVBnchCwlHk8Tgg&ust=1475827630358722


Market Growth

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: BSRIA (*France, Germany, Italy, Poland & UK)

PICV Sales Europe* by volume (x1000) €72m market (2014), 13% CAGR 2013-2018


BSRIA Technical Standard BTS No: 1 “Test Method for

Pressure Independent Control Valves”

• Allows for comparison between manufacturer’s

• Creates a balanced playing field across the industry

• Serves as a reference point for manufacturer’s, contractors and the end user.


Measured flow Versus Nominal Flow

• Example of valve setting scale • Example of Measured Flow Versus Nominal Flow test data

Test Sample Nominal

setting (l.s¯¹)

Measured flow

(l.s¯¹) at 100

kPa

Deviation

(%)

Manufacturer's

nomenclature

0.010 0.011 9%

0.025 0.025 0%

0.050 0.052 4%

0.075 0.071 -6%

0.100 0.095 -5%


Flow Limitation Test

This test indicates any inherent hysteresis in the valve flow rate performance as differential pressure rises and falls across its full range (defined by the manufacturer).


Flow Limitation Graph Example (good performance)

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Flo

w (

l.s

¯¹)

Valve ΔP (kPa)

Flow Limitation Test - 100% Pre-setting


Flow Limitation Graph Example (poor performance)

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Flo

w (

l.s¯¹)

Valve ΔP (kPa)

Flow Limitation Test - 100% Presetting


Control Characteristic Test

• The purpose of this test is to analyse the flow characteristics of the valve with an actuator in full operation.


Control Characteristic Graph

0.000

0.020

0.040

0.060

0.080

0.100

0.120

0.140

0.160

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Flo

w (

l.s¯¹)

Actuator (VDC)

Control Characteristic Graph - 100% Pre-setting 100 kPa


Seat Leakage Test

• The purpose of this test is to demonstrate the capability to shut off flow to the terminal or other device being controlled.

• The test is based on BS EN 60534-4: “Industrial Process Control Valves Part 4: Inspection and routine maintenance”.


Cycling Test

The purpose of this tests is to determine the ageing effect on the constant flow components within the valve. This is done by subjecting the valve to repeated pressure variation cycles, and re-testing some of the performance characteristics after cycling.


Differential Pressure Control Valve (DPCV)

Test Method


Thank you Cory Chadoka

Contact BSRIA Test:

[email protected]

+44 (0) 1344 465600

Test Engineer


Global Trends in AC&R

Finding the hot spots

Anette Meyer Holley 12 Oct 2016


AC Global Trends

Critical

Very Certain

Energy efficiency and renewables

Market globalization & industry consolidation

Refrigerants

Market Drivers

European economy slow to pick up, but good 2016 in Southern Europe helps

Market Restraints

Chinese slowdown

AC products going into the cloud

Legislation

Increasing focus on Chillers & Ventilation

US slowdown/ uncertainty

Smart buildings smart homes


AC Global Trends

World Air Conditioning Market from 2014 to 2021 (F) in unit terms

World Air Conditioning Market from 2014 to 2021(F) in value (US$ million)

Total Units in 2016: 113 million Total Value in 2016: US$ 88 billion


Global minisplit market – VRF and Splits,

outdoor units

Top 10 countries in Europe in 2016 by units (number of pieces)

5.5 million

World market for splits & VRF from 2014 to 2020 in units (number of pieces)


World fastest growing markets, CAGR 2015-20

Brazil

Warm spots Cold spots

Hot spots

Mexico

India

Vietnam

China Italy

Saudi Arabia

Indonesia

Philippines

Qatar

USA

Spain

UK

Bangladesh

Thailand


Refrigeration Trends

Short Term Medium Term

Imp

act

Mar

ket

Dri

vers

M

arke

t R

estr

ain

ts

Imp

act

Long Term

Low

High

Low

High

Supermarkets – a Changing consumer Mind Set =

Convenience Stores/

Lack of awareness and knowledge

Ensuring

development of safe products &

technologies

Initial investment/maintenance cost remains higher Less Reliance on Remote Cabinets, focus on energy efficient products Impact on Refrigerant Choice

Regulatory Drivers -EU F-GAS regulations - (EC) No 842/2006

Commission

Regulation EU 2015 1095 implementing

Directive 2009/125/EC which

regulates the ecodesign of energy-

related products

Uptake of natural refrigerants across

Europe

CO2 is the preferred choice for centralised

systems

Maximising Energy Efficiency - ensuring future business success:

Using integrated system solutions

to optimise overall energy

management

Turning waste heat into space heating

and maximising retail space.

Convenience Stores/ Discounters like Aldi and Lidl Click and Collect


2016 Ventilation study- US, China, Europe

Residential /Light commercial

Commercial

Boxed fans (exhaust) for central house ventilation (typical 250 m³/h @ 150 Pa)

Rooftop fans (exhaust) for central house, small office, school ventilation. Includes fire resistant (400°C)

Small central HR ventilation unit (250-500 m³/h)

Central extract / supply. Includes mechanical extract (400°C) fire resistant.

Category: Roof fans

Category: Central extract

Category: Central Heat Recovery

Central HR ventilation unit

(500~5,500 m³/h)

Category: Central Heat Recovery

Category: Central balanced extract/supply

Air handling unit (~5,500- >100,000 m³/h)

Category: AHU

Category: Central supply

Positive input /multiple input ventilation

Need a better

segmentation

than airflow

range alone


Market Drivers and Restraints

2016 2017 2020

Drivers

Indoor air quality: The main driver for heat recovery in new build. Energy savings are becoming increasingly small with efficient new dwellings.

Legislation: National legislations imposing the installation of ventilation in all new dwellings (France, Belgium), but not in Germany.

Size of sphere indicates the importance of the driver Market Trends and Dynamics

Ecodesign 1253/2014 and labelling : Speed-controlled fans, growth in EC motors, higher-efficiency heat exchangers, bypass facility

Demand control ventilation: increasing market in the North of Europe


Market Drivers and Restraints

2016 2017 2020

Lack of skills: Progression of products such as HR hindered by lack of skilled installers. Need to create a category of specialised ventilation installers

Low awareness: End users are the main specifiers for HR systems. There is a need to increase their awareness level

Growth of the parallel markets: DIY sales, Internet market place and specialised website a growing threat to suppliers of high-end products

Size of sphere indicates the importance of the restraint

Restraints

Market Trends and Dynamics


Thank you

Anette Meyer Holley

General Manager, VACR and Consultancy

[email protected]


The traditional heating markets and

the growth of renewable

technologies

Krystyna Dawson

Heating & Renewables Manager

12 Oct 2016


Main trends in world heating markets, 2015 - 2017

Move towards Integrated HVAC

systems

Controls & energy management of

buildings are growing

Low penetration of renewables in

existing buildings

Growing importance

of Energy networks In cities

Importance

Urgency

• Energy efficiency legislation for buildings & products

• Increased RES & distributed energy generation

• Low oil/gas prices

• Slow economic development

Global Drivers:

ErP and other efficiency targets drive sales

of condensing products

Substitution of boilers by renewables in new build

Gas-fuelled boilers dominance grows, mostly wall hung

Sluggish new build, Low consumer

confidence Energy storage and demand response

are developing


World heating market value by region, 2015

• Europe includes 25 countries: Austria, Belgium , France, Germany , Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway , Spain, Sweden, Switzerland , Turkey, United Kingdom, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine

** Domestic boilers in NA do not include furnaces.

Population (million inhabitants)

USA + Canada Europe China

352 778 1,360

North America

Total: 5.4 €billion

Europe*


China


DB 54%

CB 6%

WH 22%

Ren 18% **DB

10% CB 7%

WH 81%

Ren 2%

DB 7%

CB 4%

WH 56%

Ren 33%

DB = domestic boilers CB = commercial boilers WH = water heaters Ren = Ground/water + air/water heat pumps + Solar thermal


Heat pump market growth

Ground source / Air source, 2011 - 2017

Ground/Water-to-Water

(+1.2%)

*Based on research for 21 countries

Air-to-Water

(+8.6%)

units units

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Splits Monoblocs

Growth splits Growth monoblocs

2.5%

-6.6%

-5.3% -4.7%

-1.8%

1.2%

2.5%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Ground/ water to water Growth GSHP

Source: BSRIA

REMAIN


Heat pump market growth,

Exhaust air / domestic hot water, 2011 - 2017

*Based on research in 21 countries

Exhaust Air-to-Water

With Heat Recovery

Cylinder Integrated Water

Heaters Heat Pumps

units units

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

26,500

27,000

27,500

28,000

28,500

29,000

29,500

30,000

30,500

31,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exhaust air-to- water Growth exhaust air

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Air to water HP WH Growth DHWHP

Source: BSRIA


DHW HP - economic choice in troubled times

Share of Domestic Hot Water Heat Pumps in Europe & the biggest markets

2011

2015

000 units

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

France

Germany

Italy

Slovenia

Poland

Switzerland

Others

Based on the research from 21 countries Source: BSRIA

Other HP

83%

DHW HP 17%

Other HP 70%

DHW HP 30%

REMOVE


Heating and cooling function matters, 2015

European heat pump market by application, by sales volume, 2015

29%

63%

8% Domestic hot water HP

Space heating & combiHP

Reversible heating &cooling HP

42%

45%

13%

Residential segment Non-residential segment

Source: BSRIA

He

at

loa

d g

oin

g d

ow

n

Co

oli

ng

lo

ad

go

ing

up


Heat pump market by output, 2015

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

smal domestic HP (<10kW)

large domestic HP (10-20kW)

commercial HP (> 20kW)

2015

2014

Source: BSRIA

64%

36%

New build

Existing buildings

European heat pump market by output, % share in the total market, 2015


Heat pump market 2020 outlook

European heat pump market by output, % share in the total market, 2015

units growth

4%

9%

2%

11%

5%

15%

4%

1%

3%

6%

9% 9%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2015

2020

CAGR 2015-2020

• CAGR 2020 for all: 8%

Source: BSRIA


New products on the European market

HR & Ventilation HP

Stiebel Eltron LWZ 304 Integral

Genvex Combi 185 Itho Daalderop HP Cool Cube

Vitosorp 200F

Robur K18 ZeoTherm

Gas HP Solar PV + HP

Panasonic PV panel & HPM


Long term market drivers for Heat Pumps

Building regulations . . .

Energy efficiency regulations for products . . .

PV & storage market development . . .

Smart grid development. . .

Mostly related to new build might open up to

renovation

Requirements are becoming tighter

Storage batteries needed to support own consumption

Slow but ongoing with HPs being already used in smaller

networks

2010 2015 2020 2030

timeline

market size


Thank you

Krystyna Dawson

Heating & Renewables Manager –

BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence

[email protected]

D : +44 (0)1344 465638

mailto:[email protected]


Keeping up with the "Smart"

revolution

Greg Corty 12 Oct 2016


Agenda

1. BACS and Smart Homes - Market dimensions, new players entering market

2. NEW STUDY – World Smart Homes/ Light Commercial Mid-market - First results from Germany

– High-end Whole home systems vs. new “DIY” standalone solutions

– What makes it “Smart”?

– Connectivity – Proliferation of communication technologies / standards.

3. IoT – the “Cloud” and the renovation opportunity

4. NEW STUDY – Smart- connected HVAC – a new market

5. The BEMS Market

6. BSRIA’s new subscription services


New players entering the buildings market

January 2014: Google’s Acquisition of

Nest Labs marks potential new entry into Smart Homes

March 2014 Apple announce Siri Smart Home

application

April 2013: Honda USA launched Smart Home US,

including Energy Management and direct charging of vehicles from

photovoltaic power. March 2014: US Smart Home

Showcase opens.

January 2015 Facebook acquires speech-recognition

start-up Wit.ai

August 2014 Samsung acquire US based Smart

things

Sept 2015 launch

June 2015 Amazon launch Echo on general market. Voice-

activated control of lighting etc.

REMOVE


Smart Home Evolution

• Mass-market breakthrough • Telecoms/Utilities “connected

home” solutions. • IoT enabled “ubiquitous Home” • Systems learn user behaviour/

lifestyle - respond accordingly

• Approx. USD 5bn Smart home market today

• “50 billion devices by 2020” (Cisco)


World Smart Homes/

Light Commercial Mid-market

Smart characteristics

Source: Fraunhofer FOKUS


Stand Alone vs.

Connected Whole Smart Home System

Market performance by value - 2014-2021

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Millio

n U

SD

- of whichconnected

- of whichstand-alone

Provisional findings Germany 2016 (subject to change)


Cloud, IoT and ‘Edge Computing”

Cloud Computing Strategic analysis of data

Edge Computing Real time process, analysis & response to events ‘on the ground’

Key data transmission

between devices and

the cloud.

• Cloud Computing – ideally suited to strategic analytics of data

• Edge Computing emerging as key IoT enabler and overcomes latency issue with uploading to the Cloud.

Local interrogation and adjustment


Smart Connected HVAC –

What is it and which verticals

Source: Johnson Controls

• New trend - principally in USA

• HVAC manufacturers furnishing HVAC equipment at factory (or on-site refurb)

• Microproc.-based, web-enabled controls accessed wirelessly on-site and from the Cloud

• Local control + remote analytics & predictive maintenance

• Less sophisticated than full BACS

• Typical verticals:

– Education

– Offices

– Hospitality

– Retail (main target today)

– Restaurants / Food Service

– Outpatient healthcare - Clinics, dentists

– Multi-family buildings

• HVAC equip. suppliers & new start-ups, addressing specific verticals and the IoT opportunity.


How much is BEMS worth?

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mil

lio

n U

S D

olla

rs

Total BEMS Market Growth

Total

EU

USA

Rest of World

EU, 1,900, 43%

USA, 1,453, 33%

Rest of World, 1,082, 24%

Global BEMS Market Value Forecast 2016

Million

US

Dollars

Total USD 4.4billion


How BSRIA will address this complex new

environment

Residential / Light Commercial

Smart Homes and light commercial

6 month update – Main products

Threats & Opportunities

New package of studies - Modular offerings

+ Several hours of free consultancy

Smart, Connected HVAC

US First /mid-market

Spread to other countries

Updating service to follow

Lighting & Lighting Controls

Selected countries

One –off report

Updating service to

follow

Commercial

WWBACS

6 month update – DDC Controllers

Threats & Opportunities BACS & BEMS


Thank you

Greg Corty

BSRIA WMI Regional Manager - France

[email protected]


2020 Overlapping and merging

markets and conclusions

Beyond Huge threats and even greater opportunities

Andrew Giles

12 Oct 2016


Agenda

The move to big monsters – hybrids and district systems

Peering beyond 2020 and the thing that doesn’t change

The big opportunity

The supply structure changes, multi – headed threats

What will customers be wanting from you

What are the pathways to success


Expansion of hybrid technologies


District Energy in Europe*

40%

47%

10%

2%

0%

1%

Ind boilers

CHP

Biomass boilers

Heat pumps

Solar thermals

Chillers

*Based on research in Germany, Italy, France, UK, Poland

Estimated growth in district energy capacity, 2015 - 2030 Share of energy generators sold to District Energy networks, 2015

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2025f 2030f

Heating capacity Cooling capacity

GWh


Long term outlook 2020/25/30 - UK

‘000 units

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030

Fixed electric heat emitters

Heat Interface Unit **

Fuel cell

mCHP

Gas heat pump

Air to air heat pump

Exhaust air heat pump

Ground to water heat pump

Air to water heat pump

Biomass boiler

Coal boiler*

Oil boiler

Gas boiler -

50

100

150

200

250

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030

‘000 units New build Existing dwellings

70%


Gen-Z expect solutions


Sell outcome – not products

• Provision of “optimal” building temperature

• Sell benefit – sell savings

• New delivery models

– Buy the service not the capital

Your heating has a fault…

Engineer on the way…

Expect problem resolved by…


More data and communications and more

collaboration

• Prediction, anticipation, optimisation

Data processing in the cloud & SaaS

Everything connected!

Need for open standards

Integrated and converged

Edge computing

Controls augmented through data


Thank you

Andrew Giles

Director of Worldwide Market Intelligence

[email protected]


BSRIA Values

bsria industry presentation at chillventa 2016

Data & Analytics