1h11 vnrealestate residential sector trung en

8/4/2019 1H11 VNRealestate Residential Sector Trung En

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Nguyn Anh Trung, Phm Thanh Sn, Hong Cng Tun

NGNH BT NG SNTRIN VNG & C HI U T


2/15

NGNH BT NG SN

1 TNG QUAN

2 LNH VC KINH DOANH KHU DN C, CN H

3 LNH VC MT BNG BN L, VN PHNG

4 LNH VC KHU CNG NGHIP

www.tls.vn 2


3/15

Trin vng di hn sng sa do ngun cu tim nng rt ln da trn s tng

trng kinh t mnh m, dn s tr, u t trong nc v nc ngoi gia tngnhanh.

Kt qu hot ng sn xut kinh doanh ca ngnh ph thuc cht ch vo sc kheca nn kinh t.

Trin vng ngn hn ang gp kh khn do nn kinh t ang bt n. Cc cng tytrong ngnh ang phi ti cu trc.

Chnh ph ch trng hn ch ti tr vn cho ngnh bt ng sn trong nm 2011.

Quy m nim yt v tng trng vn tng mnh trong nm 2009 v 2010.

Trong cc ngnh nim yt, ngnh bt ng sn kh hp dn v hiu qu kinhdoanh, thanh khon, v k vng u t.

Vn c cc cng ty hot ng tt, hiu qu li ch c ng tng cao hn mc trungbnh ca th trng.

Gii thiu nhm cc m c kh nng t v vt k vng u t.

www.tls.vn 3

NGNH BT NG SNTM TT


4/15

TNG QUAN NGNH BT NG SNSO SNH NGNH BT NG SN V CC NGNH KHC

www.tls.vn 4

Ch tiu hot ng, th trng v giao dch ca cc nhm ngnh c bn- nm 2010

Nhm ngnh S lng ROEEPS

(VND) P/E P/B

Quy mnim yt(triu cp)

Vn ha(T VND)

KLgiao dch(triucp/ngy)

Sn xut 631 14% 3,181 14.65 1.27 25.02 757.2 71.6Cng nghip v dch v cngnghip 107 4% 2,780 6.30 1.15 20.15 429.4 10.7Utilities 28 11% 2,380 51.34 1.07 41.01 568.9 3.3

Dch v-tiu dng 42 12% 1,908 15.39 1.18 15.81 379.6 2.5Xy dng v vt liu 179 15% 2,930 14.42 1.23 15.67 304.0 21.7Dc-Y t 19 18% 8,595 7.39 1.31 9.19 419.4 0.5

Hng tiu dng 92 17% 3,417 6.33 1.35 28.39 1,201.2 9.2

Nguyn vt liu 77 19% 3,589 25.70 1.48 28.66 916.4 9.4Bt ng sn 63 19% 3,755 14.65 1.40 55.00 2,178.7 11.6

NH GI CHUNG NGNH BT NG SN Sut sinh li v hiu qu hot ng ca ngnh bt ng sn kh tt so vi cc ngnh khc

Khi lng giao dch cng mc cao cho thy mc quan tm ca cc nh u t vi ngnh

P/E v P/B mc trung bnh


5/15

www.tls.vn 5

RESIDENTIAL SECTORFEATURES AND CURRENT STATUS

3 MAJOR PRODUCTS FEATURES ON THIS SECTOR As housing purpose

As investing purpose (for both long term and speculative one)

As hedging against inflation to maintain asset value.

STATUS

Two major markets are on Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh city urban areas. Sector is being influencedlargely by city and urban development plans.

Land acquisition is the lengthy and complicated process. It has gone through complex changes onlegal frameworks.

Projects financing bases majority on capital, advanced as payment from customer.

Government implements several macro- adjustments to reduce financing risk for real estatemarket. Particular, the Decision No 71 and relevant circulars enforced more strictly rules and

conditions on capital mobilizing for real estate industry. Recently, SBV implemented Directive No.01/CT-NHNN, which guided the limit on loan ratio for non-productive sector (real estate is majority)reducing to 22% as of 30 June and 16% as of 31 December.


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Real Estate loans ratio over total Real Estate loan

at two major cities

Market area

Year

2007

Year

2008

Year

2009

Year

2010

Q1 -

2011

Q2 -

2011

Ho Chi Minhcity N/A 57% 51% 47% N/A 43%

Ha Noi 17% 18% 14.5% N/A N/A 17%

4000

6000

8000

1000012000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Q1-09 Q3-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11

# offered apartment unit in Primary marketHo Chi Minh city

Source: Savills Vietnam, TLS combines

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

70008000

9000

Q2-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11

# Offered apartment unit in Primarymarket

Hanoi city

Source: CBRE Viet nam, TLS combines

RESIDENTIAL SECTORSHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT - 2011

Market has frozen and declined.

Markets concern is still on Hanoi &

Ho Chi Minh city area.

The supply source, especially on apartmentcategory, accelerates to release, while areathe demand suspends.

Price level to be forecasted reducingconsiderable on Q III & IV as above cause.

Source: TLS combines

0 100 200 300

Year 2007

Year 2008

Year 2009

Year 2010

Q1 - 2011

Q2 - 2011

Year 2011(Estimate)

thousands VND bn

Real estate loans on banking system(2007-2011)

www.tls.vn 6


7/15www.tls.vn 7

Residential sector- listed companies-Business results

Comparative periodYear 2009 vs.

Year 2008Year 2010 vs.

Year 2009

Growth on net sale 69% 15%Growth on net income 150% 46%

Source: TLS, averaging for typical 20 companies.

Residential sector- listed companies-Asset Growth year 2010

Comparative periodYear 2009 vs.

Year 2008Year 2010 vs.

Year 2009

Asset Growth 46% 49%

in which, growth on inventory and

construction-in-progress asset 26% 47%Source: TLS, averaging for typical 20 companies.

Group accelerated sale inQ4.10, lead to the still-growthbusiness result for year 2010.However, the growth rate has slowerdown considerably once comparewith previous period.

Group continued to expand on bothequity and asset scale. It noted thatthe ratio of inventory andconstruction-in-progress asset overtotal asset has increased quickly thanprevious compared period.

RESIDENTIAL SECTORBUSINESS OPERATION OF LISTED COMPANIES - YEAR 2010 AND Q1.11

Companies has ever trended towardthe increasing of owners equity and

long-term debt over total capitalfinanced. The ratio on customeradvance payment has reducedsharply.

Year 2010

Year 2009

Year 20080%

20%

40%

Advancepaymentfrom

customer.

Shorttermb

ank'sloan

Long-termd

ebt

Owner'sequity

Otherequitysource

Equity structure- Residential sector

source: TLS


8/15www.tls.vn 8

Growth indicators- comparative compare Quarter to Quarter

Net sale

Change % Average Median

Q1.10 vs Q1.09 991% 41%

Q1.11 vs Q1.10 29% -3%

Gross Profit


Q1.10 vs Q1.09 466% 52%

Q1.11 vs Q1.10 138% 2%

Net income


Q1.10 vs Q1.09 103% 105%

Q1.11 vs Q1.10 10% -40%

Total 3 major expenses


Q1.10 vs Q1.09 79% 39%

Q1.11 vs Q1.10 26% 13%

Source: TLS, averaging for typical 20 companies.

RESIDENTIAL SECTOROUTCOME FOR YEAR 2011(E)- GROUP OF LISTED COMPANIES

Q1 business results are variedbetween companies within the sector.

Applying the statistical average andmedian values to observe itsbusiness operation for typical groupof 20 companies.

1st observation: sale and profit on 1st

quarter, 2011 decreased strongly,meanwhile corporate expenses

continued to increase. It lead to sharpfall on net income on this quarter.

2nd observation: The corporatepolices on tightening expenses inpractice did not have the large effectto improve net income figure. Realestate companies were beingimpact heavily by market.


9/15www.tls.vn 9

Average-class apartment: mostly means for housing, low investment expectation.

High-class apartment: means for long term investment. Its expectation bases on unique location onurban area.

Townhouse and Villas: Still the basement for speculative expectation and hedging against the inflation. Market and real estate companies will pass over the intensive restructuring period. Capital will be used

in a more efficient manner; the asset would be roll over faster. hn.

Far more until year 2015, the residential sector still to be support by the urban developmentperspectives at both Hanoi Capital city and Ho Chi Minh city.

RESIDENTIAL SECTORLONG TERM OUTLOOK- BEYOND YEAR 2012


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RESIDENTIAL SECTORLONG TERM OUTLOOK- BEYOND YEAR 2012 ASSET TURNOVER RATIO

The current crisis on real estate industry

will force companies in the sector to takeactions as (i) overcome short-termdifficulties; (ii) restructuring businessmodel and operation to adapt with newmarket situation.

Under sector financial analysis (and takingfinancial technical view point), we considerthat its business model in the mid-termneed to improve to higher asset turnoverratio. The historical data for year 2010showed that this ratio for real estate

industry and residential sector are low andvery low once compared with other majorindustries, listed on both HSX and HNXexchange.

www.tls.vn 10

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

Indu

strialsonbothHSX

and

HNX

ConstructionandMaterial

Indus

trialgoodsandservices

Consumerservices

Healthcare

Consumergoods

Basicmaterials

Utilities

RealEstate

Residentialsector

Asset Turnover ratio - Major industries and sector

Financial Year 2010

Asset Turnover (average)

Asset Turnover (median)

source: TLS


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RESIDENTIAL SECTORCOMPARABLE STUDY IN REGION ASSET TURNOVER RATIO

Comparison on asset turnover ratio between several sectors among regional countries- Financial year 2010

Vit nam Thai Land Malaysia Indonesia Singapore India China

Sector (Co) (A) (M) (Co) (A) (M) (Co) (A) (M) (Co) (A) (M) (Co) (A) (M) (Co) (A) (M) (Co) (A) (M)

Construction andmaterial 179 1.02 0.92 19 1.37 1.27 17 1.31 1.32 12 1.08 1.03 17 1.33 1.23 60 1.56 1.29 42 1.49 1.26

Industrial goodsand services 107 1.34 1.05 34 1.45 1.29 69 1.47 1.29 18 1.69 1.53 86 1.53 1.25 241 1.55 1.33 157 1.36 1.21Consumer

services 42 1.55 1.11 27 1.70 1.50 17 1.48 1.35 28 2.85 2.01 28 1.82 1.68 35 1.99 1.49 90 1.65 1.47

Healthcare 19 1.38 1.41 8 1.17 1.13 11 1.34 1.33 9 1.84 1.60 5 1.52 1.26 57 1.38 1.23 48 1.40 1.28

Consumer goods 92 1.61 1.42 64 1.44 1.42 92 1.39 1.30 52 1.59 1.42 41 1.48 1.26 412 4.72 1.55 226 1.52 1.29

Basic materials 77 1.48 1.26 44 1.66 1.41 33 1.38 1.18 33 1.74 1.51 10 1.94 1.70 283 1.65 1.46 167 1.52 1.29

Utilities 28 1.39 1.16 1 1.14 1.14 9 1.83 1.85 4 1.09 1.04

Real Estate 63 0.35 0.31 2 1.16 1.16 1 1.88 1.88 1 1.44 1.44 3 2.03 2.30 4 1.09 1.04

Source: Bloomberg data, TLS combines (notes: (Co): # companies; (A): Average value; (M): Median value)

www.tls.vn 11

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

Vietnam

ThaiLand

Malaysia

Indonesia

Singapore

India

China

Real Estate

nhm UtilitiesBasic materials

Consumer goods

Health care

Consumer services

Industrial goods and services

Construction and Material

Comparison on asset turnover ratio between several sectors among regional countries (median value, Financial year 2010)


12/15www.tls.vn 12

Business Efficiency indicators and Scale of real estate companies- Financial year 2010

Group

(average value) # CompaniesROE ROA EPS (VND) P/E

Book Value(VND) P/B

Listing scale( mil. shares)

Market

Cap.(VND bn)

Real Estateindustry 63 19% 8% 3,755 14.65 20,575 1.40 55 2,179

Residentialsector 39 20% 8% 4,309 15.69 22,143 1.46 57 2,591

Source: TLS

RESIDENTIAL SECTORSEVERAL FINANCIAL INDICATORS OF LISTED COMPANIES IN THE SECTOR

Over70% of the top 50 real estate listed companies

has majority business operation in this sector.

The ratios on business efficiency, marketvaluation, market scale and share trading liquidityare higher than the average value of the whole realestate industry.90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

ROE

ROA

EPS (VND)

P/E

Bookvalue

(VND)

P/B

Listing

scale(mil.

shares)

Market-

Cap ( VNDbn)

Real Estate industry

Residentail sector


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Efficiency indicators- Market indicators and Trading Liquidity of major industries and sector- Year 2010

ROE EPS (VND) P/E P/B Listing Scale(Mil. shares) Market Cap( VND bn) Trading volume(mil. shares/day)

Sectors Companies average median average median average median average median average median average median average median

Industrials on both

HSX and HNX 631 14% 15% 3,181 2,389 14.65 7.02 1.27 1.09 25.02 9.58 757.2 167.4 71.6 68.9

Industrial goods and

services 107 4% 15% 2,780 2,414 6.30 6.37 1.15 0.97 20.15 8.00 429.4 109.8 10.7 10.2

Utilities 28 11% 9% 2,380 1,426 51.34 9.18 1.07 0.96 41.01 17.37 568.9 267.3 3.3 3.2

Consumer services 42 12% 11% 1,908 1,434 15.39 9.21 1.18 0.88 15.81 5.18 379.6 80.7 2.5 2.2

Construction andMaterial 179 15% 14% 2,930 2,336 14.42 6.94 1.23 1.08 15.67 8.00 304.0 109.2 21.7 21.1

Health care 19 18% 17% 8,595 5,029 7.39 6.52 1.31 1.34 9.19 8.19 419.4 162.0 0.5 0.5

Consumer goods 92 17% 18% 3,417 3,056 6.33 6.80 1.35 1.26 28.39 11.50 1,201.2 255.1 9.2 8.6

Basic materials 77 19% 17% 3,589 2,685 25.70 7.38 1.48 1.20 28.66 10.70 916.4 195.0 9.4 8.6

Real Estate 63 19% 16% 3,755 2,683 14.65 7.28 1.40 1.26 55.00 20.00 2,178.7 462.9 11.6 10.6

Residential sector 39 20% 18% 4,309 3,297 15.69 7.57 1.46 1.30 56.75 32.80 2,590.6 685.0 6.4 5.6

Source: TLS

RESIDENTIAL SECTORAS COMPARISON WITH OTHER SECTORS

As ROE, EPS indicator Residential sector is that the runner up after Heath care sector.

Take leading on listing scale, market cap and liquidity once comparing among the most efficiency


14/15www.tls.vn 14

Investment performance evaluation - Total shareholder Return 2 year 2009-2010

Year 2009 Year 2010 Y2009-Y2010

Ticker market capitalization Dividend yield TSR market capitalization Dividend yield TSR annualized TSR 2-year

VND bn % % VND bn % % %

NTL 2,317 15% 313% 2,099 8% -2% 145%

NBB 1,040 12% 217% 1,301 0% 20% 117%

SJS 8,000 7% 266% 3,360 1% -26% 74%

HAG 21,056 4% 89% 24,143 2% 1% 46%

Source: TLS

Efficiency indicators the leading listed companies in residential sector- Financial year 2010

Ticker

GrosssProfit

marginNet Profit

margin ROE ROAEBITDA

/ saletAsset

turnover

Debts/

ownersequity Book value Basic EPS

EPSgrowth P/E P/B Listed shares Market. Cap

% % % % x x x VND VND % x x Mil.S hares VND bn

NTL 54% 42% 62% 27% 0.57 0.84 1.26 31,075 18,880 -42% 3.39 2.18 32.80 2,099

NBB 25% 25% 16% 5% 0.41 0.24 2.06 50,106 7,950 36% 10.63 1.67 15.40 1,301

SJS 66% 45% 21% 10% 0.64 0.27 1.05 27,346 6,013 -28% 5.59 1.54 100.00 3,360

HAG 51% 49% 25% 12% 0.67 0.29 1.17 20,381 4,356 13% 17.79 2.66 311.52 24,143

Source: TLS

RESIDENTIAL SECTORPOTENTIAL STOCKS

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR


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Business briefing for recommended stocks- year 210

Items NTL SJS NBB HAGLand bank resource 215ha 2780 ha 800 ha 327 ha

Area for apartment andtownhouse projects 1.7 mil m2 apartment 2.2 million m2 apartment

Total Assets(as of 31.12.10, VNDbn) 1,858 4,500 2,355 18,777

Total owners equity

(as of 31.12.10, VNDbn) 969 2,203 765 9,213

Major businessgeographical market Hanoi urban; Hoa Binh

Ha Noi, Hoa Binh, HungYen, Da Nang, Ho Chi Minhcity

Ho Chi Minh city, BinhThuan, Quang Ngai,Quang Nam, QuangNinh.

Ho Chi Minh city

Typical real estateproject

Dich Vong project, TramTroi project, Tan Tay Doproject

Nam An Khanhd and NamAn Khanh extensionprojects; Tien Xuan projects,Van Khe project,SUDICO_SPM,Q9 project.

NBB garden II-III;Residential area SonTinh-Quang Ngai;Complex areaTan Kien-Binh Chanh, Ho ChiMinh city

15 Apartments andcommercial centers in HoChi Minh city area.Typically, Hoang Anh riverview, New Saigon, PhHong Anh, Ch LnPlaza, Saigon Twin tower

Large Shareholders:

B.O.M17%;Asiavantage:9%; VF1:8.6%;

SongDa Corp: 36%;Deutsche Bank AG funds:11%; VF1:3.4%

B.O.M: 23%; DeutscheAsset Management:14.5%; Vietnam PropertyHolding : 13%; Cienco 5:5.9%; VietBridge CapitalHoldings : 4.8%

Chairmanon Nguync:47%; Deutsche Bank AGfunds: 15%

Stock trading for year2010 (Average/Medianshares/day) (A): 368 K; (M): 240K (A): 434K, (M): 317K (A): 61 K, (M): 33K (A): 730K; (M): 586K

Source: TLS

RESIDENTIAL SECTORPOTENTIAL STOCKS

1h11 vnrealestate residential sector trung en

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