2009 sabor housing forecast. -washington post december 28, 2008 “the recession is bad enough. a...
TRANSCRIPT
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2009 SABOR Housing Forecast
2009 SABOR Housing Forecast
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-Washington PostDecember 28,
2008
“The Recession is bad enough. A relentless new cycle is making it worse.”
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• If the FDA regulated the media, it would require all stories about the economy to carry this warning:
“Dizziness and pangs of existential angst may result. Do not read if you suffer from gloominess or are prone to bouts of anxiety. If you are near retirement age, consult with a physician before reading.”
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CHANGING TRENDS
• 1947-1974: Era of the Broker– “Civic Generation of Giants”
• 1974 - 2001: Era of the Agent– “All Commissions and credit were the
results of the agents”
• 2001 - Present: Era of the Consumer
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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: TOP CONCERNS
1. Being able to afford the cost of living2. Having enough money to retire3. Uncertainty about things that could affect
the family budget4. Healthcare 5. Long-term care
Source: Harris Interactive
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TEXAS HOME PRICES AT LEAST RISK
• According to PMI Group’s Winter 2009 Risk Index:
“Dallas, Houston and San Antonio – least likely large MSA’s in the country to experience lower home prices in the next two years.”- Austin ranked 12th
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OTHER TOP RANKING TEXAS CITIES
• Sherman/Denison• Victoria• Odessa• Bryan/College Station
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TEXAS IS TOP RELOCATION DESTINATION
• Texas Tops list – 4th year in a row– Number of inbound relocations in Texas exceeded– Number of outbound moves net of 1,903
Allied Van Lines annual survey of Top Relocation Destinations
• #2: North Carolina• #3: Virginia• Largest Net Losses:
• Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Illinois
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16,844
19,217
22,40524,562
22,824
18,661
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
ANNUAL SALES TRENDS (JAN – DEC)
Number of Sales
Source: MLS
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• Number of sales is down 18% year to date compared to 2007
• Down 23% from their peak in 2006
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NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE
(NOVEMBER)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
<$199,999 $200,000-$499,999
NOV. 05
NOV. 06
NOV. 07
NOV. 08
Price Range
# of Sales
11621210
1072
762
310 328362
231
Source: MLS
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• Number of homes that sold at or below $199,999 has market share of 74%
• Number of houses that sold at or between $200,000 - $499,999 has market share of 22%
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NUMBER OF SALES $500,000 AND ABOVE (NOVEMBER)
0
10
20
30
40
50
NOV. 05NOV. 06NOV. 07NOV. 08
# of Sales
27
46
4038
> $500,000 Price Range Source: MLS
Nov. ‘05
Nov. ‘06 Nov.
‘07 Nov. ‘08
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• Number of houses that sold at or above $500,000 is down 5% from 2007
• Down 17% from November 2006
• Market share in November of 2008 – 4%
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NUMBER OF MONTHLY ACTIVE LISTINGS BY YEAR
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
200620072008
Month
# of Active
Listings
Source: MLS
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MONTHS OF INVENTORY BY YEAR
(Includes Single-Family & Condos/Townhomes)
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
200620072008
Month
Months of
Inventory
Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center
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MONTHS OF INVENTORY
• Months of supply are up because the number of sales is falling
• Months of supply will vary by price range– $1,000,000+ = 48 months of supply (Nov ‘08)– $500,000-$999,999 = 23 months of supply (Nov ‘08)– $250,000 - $499,999 = 14 months of supply (Nov ‘08)– $250,000 and below = 7 months of supply (Nov ‘08)
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DAYS ON MARKET(November)
Source: MLS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Nov. 05 Nov. 06 Nov. 07 Nov. 08
Days onMarket
6861
78
87
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DAYS ON MARKET ANALYSIS
• Days on market are up 12% from 2007
• Days on market increase as you move north of Loop-1604
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FORECLOSURE INFORMATION
UP23%
2008 COMPARED
TO 2007
www.FLSonline.com
Foreclosure postings have climbed 41% over the past 5 years, since 2003.
Foreclosure Listing Service, Inc.
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$132,900
$142,600
$149,800 $149,900
$120,000
$125,000
$130,000
$135,000
$140,000
$145,000
$150,000
2005 2006 2007 2008
MedianSalesPrice
YTD MEDIAN SALES PRICE PER YEAR
(JAN - DEC)
Source: MLS
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• Prices are stable and are expected to continue this trend in 2009
• Price stability will vary by price range and location
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Subdivision $/Sq.Ft.20
06
$/Sq.Ft. 2007
Percentage Change ’06 to ‘07
$/Sq.Ft. Jan-Nov
2008
Percentage Change ’07 to ‘08
The Dominion $157 $181 15% $188 4%Alamo Heights
$181 $195 8% $199 2%
Terrell Hills $149 $172 15% $182 6%Olmos Park $170 $185 9% $180 -3%Monte Vista $149 $156 5% $159 2%Cordillera Ranch
$190 $185 -3% $195 5%
Elm Creek $131 $133 1% $130 -2%
PRICE/SQ. FT. PER SUBDIVISION
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Subdivision $/Sq.Ft. 2006
$/Sq.Ft. 2007
Percentage Change ’06 to ‘07
$/Sq.Ft. Jan-Nov
2008
Percentage Change ’07 to ‘08
Bluffview $116 $133 15% $131 -1%
Deerfield $101 $104 3% $105 1%Hunters Creek
$101 $102 1% $99 -3%
Castle Hills $94 $105 12% $98 -7%Inwood $116 $133 15% $124 -7%Rogers Ranch
$108 $107 -1% $112 13%
Shavano Park
$129 $137 6% $140 2%
Fair Oaks $132 $131 -1% $133 2%
PRICE/SQ. FT. PER SUBDIVISION
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Subdivision $/Sq.Ft. 2006
$/Sq.Ft. 2007
Percentage Change ’06 to ‘07
$/Sq.Ft. Jan-Nov
2008
Percentage Change ’07 to ‘08
Churchill Estates
$91 $87 -4% $87 0%
San Pedro Hills
$79 $85 3% $84 -1%
Braun Station
$80 $77 -4% $64 -17%
Colonies North
$79 $85 7% $89 5%
PRICE/SQ. FT. PER SUBDIVISION
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NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION
Source: Metrostudy
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NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION (CONT.)
Source: Metrostudy
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TEXAS JOB GROWTH IN 2008Leads the Nation from Oct07 to
Oct08
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MAJOR METROS JOB GROWTH( Oct07 to Oct08 )
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JOB GROWTH PAST 12 MONTHS
Ending October, 2008
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
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JOB GROWTH PAST 12 MONTHS
Ending October, 2008
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
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JOB GROWTH PAST 12 MONTHS
Ending October, 2008
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
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SINGLE-FAMILY BUILDING PERMITS
Nov07 to Nov08
5,856 Permits issued in San Antoniofrom Nov07 to Nov08
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HOME PRICE APPRECIATION
Best States Worst StatesN. Dakota 4.0% Nevada -20.9%S. Dakota 3.9% California -20.8%Texas 3.2% Florida -16.0%Alabama 2.8% Arizona -13.5%Oklahoma 2.8% Rhode Island - 8.0%
Source: OFHEO
3Q07 to 3Q08
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BUYING A HOUSE FOR THE LONG TERM(Even in the roughest markets)
Source: OFHEO
City Price Change (Last 12 Months)
Price Change (Last 5 Years)
Orlando, FL -15.40% + 48.66%
Naples, FL -25.25% + 29.78%
Las Vegas, NV -26.78% + 25.82%
Fresno, CA -23.52% + 26.08%
Los Angeles, CA -26.78% + 45.55%
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ISSUES TO WATCH: 2009
• May be the lowest mortgage rates in our lifetime
• Can the government get Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac working again?
• Housing starts bottom at lowest level since WWII• Home sales volume could decline 5-10% again in
2009 due to high level of uncertainty
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• Oil and Gas prices • The economy is likely to hit bottom before the
end of the year; a rising stock market will be the signal
• Thousands of families will buy homes in 2009• Government intervention is quickly becoming
a problem and not a solution
ISSUES TO WATCH: 2009 (CONT.)
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81ST TEXAS LEGISLATURE
• Appraisal Reform– Mandatory Sales Price Disclosure vs. Appraisal
Reform– Reliance on Property taxes to fund public
schools
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• REALTOR Position: • Support a Constitutional amendment to give state
entity authority to enforce uniform standards among ALL appraisal districts in Texas
• Support legislation that changes how an effective tax rate is calculated to ensure no new revenue is realized by local taxing jurisdictions when local property values increase
• ABR hearings: uniformity, consistency, and transparency
• Bexar County: Consumer report and media campaign
81ST TEXAS LEGISLATURE
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Source: Mark Nash, Chicago-based residential real estate author, broker and columnist
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SIDELINED HOMEBUYERSSIDELINED HOMEBUYERS
• Fence-sitters• “It’s time for our family to
buy the new home that suits our needs.”
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COLLABORATIVE HOME PRICING
• Seller with agent look at closed comparables, set a price, and the buyer and his agent agree/disagree
• In the end, a mortgage lender and their appraiser will set the price
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HOUSE THERAPISTS
• Independent third-party (house therapist or coach)– Brings household relationships to common ground
on prickly issues such as to stay or move, how much to spend on remodeling or decorating, etc.
– Outline benefits and pitfalls of overspending
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LOVESEATS
• Consumers appreciate ease at which they can be arranged
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DINING CHAIRS THAT DON’T MATCH
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OLDER WAR-HORSE APPLIANCES
• 1940’s – 1980’s – Harvest gold double ovens (1970’s)– Cold spot refrigerators (1950’s)– Dryers (1960’s)
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MASTER BED AS THRONE
• At-home luxury hotel experience• Posh linens, pillows and mattresses• Dual master suites
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• Parchment Whites• Cashmere Yellows• Bright Optimistic Blues• Radiant Golds• Grassy Greens
OBAMA ERA PAINT COLORS
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SPECIAL HOME COMPONENTS
• Open Floor Plans (minimizing walls in common areas)
• Eco-friendly/green building components• Larger garages
– Garage floors & doors
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FIXER-UPPER HOMES
• Buyers want to inherit new kitchens & bathrooms
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INDOOR-OUTDOOR CARPET
• Often masks flaws in homes
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TRACK LIGHTING
• “Don’t really have any interesting artwork or architectural features to spotlight”
• “Bring undue attention to nothing.”
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FORECLOSURE “FLUFF”
• National Foreclosure rate in 2008 was just under 3%
• In the Great Depression, it was just over 40%
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HOME STAGING
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• 4 Groups:– Civics: 62 years and older– Baby Boomers: 43 years to 61 years– Gen X’ers: 31 years to 42 years– Millennials: 13 years to 30 years
Source: John Ansbach with Generational Consulting Group
GENERATIONAL DIVERSITY
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CIVICS; MATURES, GI’S, GREATEST GENERATION
Values & Preferences:
58 million people
Source: John Ansbach with Generational Consulting Group
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BABY BOOMERS – “ME” GENERATION78 million people
Values & Preferences:
Source: John Ansbach with Generational Consulting Group
![Page 58: 2009 SABOR Housing Forecast. -Washington Post December 28, 2008 “The Recession is bad enough. A relentless new cycle is making it worse.”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070415/56649dac5503460f94a9c6ad/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
GENERATION X: X’ERS, BABY BUSTERS
48 million; the original “latchkey” kids
Values & Preferences:
Source: John Ansbach with Generational Consulting Group
![Page 59: 2009 SABOR Housing Forecast. -Washington Post December 28, 2008 “The Recession is bad enough. A relentless new cycle is making it worse.”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070415/56649dac5503460f94a9c6ad/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
MILLENNIALS: GEN Y, ECHO BOOMERS
73 million people
Values & Preferences:
Source: John Ansbach with Generational Consulting Group
![Page 60: 2009 SABOR Housing Forecast. -Washington Post December 28, 2008 “The Recession is bad enough. A relentless new cycle is making it worse.”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070415/56649dac5503460f94a9c6ad/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
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