2011 annual arab public opinion survey - brookings · 2016-07-21 · weakening the muslim world ......

Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development

University of Maryland University of Maryland

20112011Annual Arab Public Opinion SurveyAnnual Arab Public Opinion Survey

Survey conducted October 2011 in Survey conducted October 2011 in

Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and UAEEgypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and UAESample size: 3000Sample size: 3000

Margin of error: +/Margin of error: +/-- 1.8%1.8%

Professor Professor ShibleyShibley TelhamiTelhami, Principal Investigator, Principal Investigator

Mike Mike LebsonLebson, Evan Lewis and Abe , Evan Lewis and Abe MedoffMedoff assisted in preparation of this studyassisted in preparation of this study

Key FindingsKey Findings


*Note that these polls measure trends but not necessarily likelyvoting behavior. There is little information on the central issue of likely voters and little precedence. At the local level, Egyptians vote often on the basis of family/clan loyalty, personality, or other factors that trump ideology.

Samples and Polling DatesSamples and Polling DatesCountry Sample

SizeMargin of Error

Start Date

End Date

Egypt 750 +/‐ 3.7% 10/22 10/30

UAE 500 +/‐ 4.5% 10/20 10/31

Morocco 750 +/‐ 3.7% 10/20 10/31

Lebanon 500 +/‐ 4.5% 10/20 10/27

Jordan 500 +/‐ 4.5% 10/20 10/30

Polling CitiesPolling CitiesCOUNTRY CITIES

Egypt Giza, Cairo, Qaliubiya, Alexandria, Al Minia(Upper Egypt), Al Ismailiyah (Suez Canal)

UAE Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Sharjah

Morocco Casablanca, Rabat

Lebanon Beirut, Aley, Metn, Baabda, Tripoli, Shouf

Jordan Amman, Irbid, Zarqa

Arab AwakeningArab Awakening

Arab Awakening

Egyptian ElectionsEgyptian Elections

Egyptian Elections

United States United States & the Middle East& the Middle East

48

38

8

2

48

36

11

4

United States & the Middle EastGenerally speaking, is your attitude toward the United States…

Very favorable

Somewhat favorable

Somewhat unfavorable

Very unfavorable

2011

38

21

22

4

2010 2009

United States & the Middle EastHow would you describe your views of President Barack Obama of the United

States?2011 2010

Positive

Neutral

Negative

2009

43

13

34

62

18

19

24

32

39

United States & the Middle EastWhich of the following is closest to your views in describing US

President Barack Obama?

Favorable personal view of him and I am hopeful about his foreign policy

Favorable personal view of him, but I don't think the American system will allow him to have a successful foreign policy

Unfavorable view of him and I am pessimistic about his foreign policy

2011 2010

8

41

36

3

35

55

United States & the Middle EastHow would you describe your attitudes toward the Obama

Administration policy in the Middle East?

Hopeful

Neither hopeful nor discouraged

Discouraged

2011 2010

52

19

20

65

20

14

15

31

47

2009

United States & the Middle EastWhat TWO steps by the United States would improve your views of the

United States the most?

Israel‐Palestine peace agreement

Withdrawal from Iraq

Stopping aid to Israel

Withdrawal from Arabian Peninsula

Pushing more to spread democracy

More economic aid to the region

Stopping aid to Arab governments

2011

8

11

12

26

29

42

55

2010

1

13

8

43

33

47

53

2

7

6

52

53

24

39

2009

United States & the Middle EastWhen you look back at the past year of the Obama Administration, which

one of the following policies are you most disappointed with?

Palestine/Israel

Iraq

Attitudes toward Islam

Afghanistan

Human rights

Spreading democracy

Economic assistance

2011 2010

2

5

5

9

12

14

46

1

1

1

4

4

26

64

United States & the Middle EastWhen you look back at the past year of the Obama Administration, which

one of the following policies are you most pleased with?

Palestine/Israel

Iraq

Attitudes toward Islam

Afghanistan

Human rights

Spreading democracy

Economic assistance

2011 2010

17

9

14

2

7

8

4

11

4

5

1

22

3

Less than 1%

United States & the Middle EastWhich TWO of the following factors do you believe are most important in

driving American policy in the Middle East?

Protecting Israel

Controlling oil

Weakening the Muslim world

Preventing spread of nuclear weapons

Fighting terrorism

Spreading human rights

Promoting democracy

Preserving regional and global dominance

Promoting peace and stability

2011

5

5

7

8

8

29

32

44

53

2010 2009

4

4

13

5

6

36

34

50

47

5

4

12

4

8

25

38

52

39

ArabArab--Israeli ConflictIsraeli Conflict

Arab‐Israeli ConflictWhich of the following statements is closer to your view?

Prepared for peace if Israel is willing to return all 1967 territories including East Jerusalem, and Arab governments should put more effort into this

Even if Israel returns all 1967 territories, Arabs should continue to fight

Prepared for peace if Israel is willing to return all 1967 territories including East Jerusalem, but Israel will never give up these territories easily

20092011

23

43

24

24

45

29

Arab‐Israeli ConflictWhich of the following statements is closest to your view about the prospects of lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians?

Don’t believe it will ever happen

Inevitable, but it will take more time

Will happen in the next five years

20092011

53

29

10

49

41

6

1

59

12

27

3

54

9

21

What do you believe is the likely outcome if the prospects of a two‐state solution in the Palestinian‐Israeli conflict collapse?

State of intense conflict for years to come

Arab‐Israeli Conflict

Status quo will continue

One‐state solution in which Israelis and Palestinians are equal

Palestinians will eventually surrender to Israeli power

2011 2009

A solution to the Palestinian‐Israeli conflict that leads to the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, with East Jerusalem as its capital, will happen only:

Through serious negotiations


By being imposed by the UN

Through another Arab‐Israeli war

It will never happen

By being imposed by the United States

2011 2010

16

20

15

24

20

16

14

11

18

40

Arab‐Israeli ConflictWhen you look at the Israeli‐Palestinian conflict, which of the following

issues is the most central to you, assuming that they may all be important:

Establishment of a fully independent contiguous Palestinian state in WBG

Arab sovereignty over East Jerusalem

Right of Palestinian refugees to return to their homes

2011 2010

37

28

29

20

32

45

Arab‐Israeli ConflictWhich of the following statements is closer to your view: (EGYPT ONLY)

I am prepared for a just and comprehensive peace with Israel if Israel returns all the territories occupied, and Arab governments should make more efforts

I am prepared for a just and comprehensive peace with Israel if Israel returns all the territories occupied, but they won't give up territory peacefully

Even if the Israelis return all of the territories occupied in 1967 peacefully, the Arabs should continue to fight Israel

2011 2009

19

47

19

28

41

28

IranIran

IranDo you believe that Iran is merely conducting research for peaceful purposes, or

trying to develop nuclear weapons?

Peaceful purposes

Nuclear weapons

2011 2009

52

33

59

28

25

64

40

53

IranThere is international pressure on Iran to curtail its

nuclear program. What is your opinion?

Iran has the right to its nuclear program

Iran should be pressured to stop its nuclear program

2011 2009

IranIf Iran acquires nuclear weapons, which of the following is the likely

outcome for the Middle East region?

More positive

Would not matter

More negative

2011

35

25

25

2009

46

19

28

2009

IranName TWO countries that you think pose the biggest threat to you.

2011

Israel

United States

Iran 18

59

71

12

76

88

Global PerspectiveGlobal Perspective

Global PerspectiveIn a world where there is only one superpower, which of the following

countries would you prefer to be that superpower?

France

China

Germany

Britain

Russia

United States

Pakistan

2011

5

7

7

10

12

15

23

2009

7

8

3

23

7

25

14

Global PerspectiveWhich world leader (outside your own country) do you admire most?

Recep Erdogan

Hugo Chavez

Mahmoud Ahmadinajad

Hassan Nasrallah

Fidel Castro

Nicolas Sarkozy

Jacques Chirac

Sheikh M. bin Zayed

Sheikh M. bin Rashed

Saddam Hussein

2011

3

3

3

4

4

5

5

6

7

13

13

22

King Abdullah Al Saud

Barack Obama

2010

4

1

1

2

5

7

14

2

1

14

8

22

2009

3

1

5

2

10

6

26

4

6

6

4

If you had to live in one of the following countries, which one would you prefer most?

France

China

Germany

Britain

Russia

United States

Pakistan

2011

2

4

10

11

15

22

28

2009

1

4

5

9

10

25

36

Global Perspective

Global Perspective

IdentityIdentity

3

23

20

55

10

14

16

58

When your government makes decisions, do you think it should base its decisions mostly on what is best for…

Muslims

Identity

Your country

Arabs

The world

2011 2009

Which of the following is your most important identity?

Muslim

Identity

Citizen of your country

Arab

Citizen of the world 1

33

27

38

9

26

31

33

2011 2009

Which of the following is your second most important identity?

Identity

Muslim

Citizen of your country

Arab

Citizen of the world 2

24

41

30

11

24

26

27

2011 2009

MediaMedia

MediaWhat’s your primary source for international news?

Television

Radio

Newspapers / Magazines

Internet

3

9

8

80

5

14

20

58

2011 2009

MediaWhen you watch international news, which of the following network’s news

broadcasts do you watch most often?

Al Jazeera

LBC

MBC

Al Arabiya

5

11

3

38

1

4

5

58

7

12

14

43

2011 2010 2009

2011 annual arab public opinion survey - brookings · 2016-07-21 · weakening the muslim world ......

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