20120202 delong presentation pp 269 ellwood · 2/2/2012 · 20120202 delong presentation pp 269...
TRANSCRIPT
Budge&ng and Macro Policy
J. Bradford DeLong PP 269; 250 GSPP
February 1, 2012
Unemployment
Infla&on
John Maynard Keynes (1924)
• We see, therefore, that rising prices [infla&on] and falling prices [defla&on] each have their characteris&c disadvantage. The Infla&on which causes the former means Injus&ce to individuals and to classes-‐-‐par&cularly to investors; and is therefore unfavorable to saving. The Defla&on which causes falling prices means Impoverishment to labor and to enterprise by leading entrepreneurs to restrict produc&on, in their endeavor to avoid loss to themselves; and is therefore disastrous to employment....
John Maynard Keynes (1924)
• Thus Infla&on is unjust and Defla&on is inexpedient. Of the two, perhaps Defla&on is, if we rule out exaggerated infla&ons such as that of Germany [in 1923-‐1924], the worse; because it is worse, in an impoverished world, to provoke unemployment than to disappoint the ren&er. But it is not necessary that we should weight one evil against the other. It is easier to agree that both are evils to be shunned…
Growth
Deficits and the Economy
• Macroeconomists work in three runs: – Short run
• Produc&ve capabili&es of the economy do not change significantly, prices do not fully adjust. Produc&on can deviate from poten&al output.
– Medium run • Short-‐run devia&ons of produc&on from poten&al output are ironed out. Prices adjust so infla&on finds its level. Economy grows.
– Long run • Government debt must be paid back (or at least balanced) or defaulted upon
Ques&ons About “Runs”
• What is the &me frame appropriate for each “run”?
• How do we s&tch the conclusions reached by analyzing different “runs” togethere?
The Short Run: The Quan&ty Theory of Money
• Start with the quan&ty theory of money: – PY= MV
• Federal Reserve controls the money supply M • In normal &mes:
– People want to spend the money in their pockets (and back accounts) by buying stuff at a rate V
– If PY too small rela&ve to trend, Federal Reserve pushes M up—and so Y (produc&on and employment) jumps up and P (infla&on) accelerates.
– If PY too large rela&ve to trend, Federal Reserve pushes M up—and so Y (produc&on and employment) falls and P (infla&on) decelerates.
– If the rest of the government does something that disturbs this rela&onship, the Federal Reserve can and does neutralize it • Hence fiscal policy should be “classical” rather than “macroeconomic”
The Short Run: But These Times Aren’t Normal
• The quan&ty theory of money: – PY= MV
• What determines V? Why do people want to spend their money?
• Because holding your wealth in money rather than bonds is expensive: you are losing interest.
• But what if, in the aoermath of a financial crisis, the short-‐term interest rate on bonds goes to 0?
• Then you would rather hold money than bonds: money is safer
• And the Federal Reserve loses its ability to control the flow of spending
The Short Run: What Is to Be Done?
• Normally the Federal Reserve boosts the money supply, and people spend more
• The Federal Reserve can try all kinds of expedients—non-‐standard monetary policy—to try to cajole people into spending more
• Or the government can spend more: the government’s money is, as far as buying stuff, as good as anybody else’s – So in the short run—which lasts as long as unemployment is substan&ally elevated—the government should spend more
– And perhaps the government should tax less as a way of cajoling private-‐sector households to spend more—but that is less certain and sure
The Short Run: How Long Will It Last?
The Short Run: How Long Will It Last?
Reconcilia&on of Unemployment and Employment Views
• The transforma&on of cyclical into structural unemployment
• Come 2016, we may no longer be able to use policies to boost employment and produc&on without incurring unacceptable increases in infla&on
• Why? Because once people have dropped out of the labor force, it may be hard to get them back.
• Each month that the strong recovery we have been wai&ng for is delayed: – We lose $100 billion in useful commodi&es we would be
producing at full employment, but aren’t. – We lose $267 billion because the fact that people are dropping
out of the labor force means that our future booms will be weaker
The Medium Run
• Someday our period of elevated unemployment will end – Then Y = Y*
• The equa&on we then want to look at is the full-‐employment na&onal income iden&ty – Y* = C(Y-‐T) + I + G + (NX)
• If we boost G, we should then also take steps to reduce C by raising T
• If not, then I will fall • And if I falls, economic growth over any five or ten year span will fall
• And right now it looks as though we don’t have economic growth to spare
The Long Run: Baseline and Alterna&ve Fiscal Scenario Deficits
Baseline and Alterna&ve Fiscal Scenario Debts Held by the Public
Is Running the Debt-‐to-‐GDP Ra&o Up to 92% Over the Next Decade a
Problem?
The Long Run: Beyond 2020
Beyond 2020…
• Either we fix our poli&cs – I.e., s&ck to PAYGO – Milton Friedman’s “A Program for Fiscal Stability” proposal in the early post-‐WWII years that no government spending program be passed without a funding source
• Or—if we con&nue to (a) have and (b) elect the Republican Party we have had since 1980—we have a big problem
And at Some Point the Bond Market Vigilantes Will Show Up, and Force Us
to Balance Our Budget Quickly
But We Don’t Have to Worry Un&l the 2020s or 2030s, Right? Right?