2014 lok sabha election prediction

8/13/2019 2014 lok sabha election prediction

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Satyamev Jayate 2Survey Study

A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research

3rdSeptember 2013 | 13rdSeptember 2013


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3rdSeptember 2013 | 3

The take away points:

1. Growth Factor. The participants have voted for the growth model of Gujarat

government led by Narendra Modi as the best growth model for India. 54%participants have voted for the growth model of Gujarat government led by

Narendra Modi and the participants want to see that experience replicating in the

whole country.

2. A clean sweep for Narendra Modi. More than 60% participants have unanimously

voted for Narendra Modi as the best Prime Ministerial candidate for the upcoming

Lok Sabha election. Rahul Gandhi of the Congress party became a distant second

with just 11% votes.

3. Stability Counts. The question of Hung Parliament has made the participants tilt

towards the combination that could provide stable government. 65% participants

have said that they would be voting for the party or candidate, who is winning at

the centre combination, capable of providing stable government. About 35% people

however, will vote for their preferred party or candidate irrespective of who the

winner is.

4. Modi Magic. Clearly Narendra Modi seems to have appeared as the clear choice

for the Indians. The joint influence of BJP and NDA faded in the face of the Modi

magic. A whopping 49% strong crowd said that they would vote for BJP and NDA

only if Modi is declared as the Prime Ministerial candidate. While only 19% people

have said that they wontvote for BJP and NDA under any circumstances, about

the same number of people have voiced their unfaltering support for the

party/coalition. It seems that NDA will not be able to take advantage of anti-

incumbency factor if they dontdeclare Modi as the PM candidate.

5. Sinking Boat. The situation is not working in favour of the Congress-led UPA

government. It has become evident as about 52% people have expressed their

reservation and said that they wont vote for the Congress and UPA under any

circumstance. Only about 21% people out of all the respondents have said they will

vote for the Congress and UPA only when Rahul Gandhi is declared as the Prime

Ministerial candidate, where as 15% respondents think they will vote for Congress

and UPA without considering Rahul Gandhi factor

6. Credibility Matters. Credible leadership seems to be the decisive factor for the

Indian electorate. About 65% of the respondents are ready to change their voting

decision in favour of any national party if they declare a credible and honest person

as their Prime Ministerial candidate.

Executive Summary


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The take away points:

7. No to Third Front. Indian electorate is most apprehensive about the Third Front /

Federal Front government. About 61% respondents have said that Third Front orFederal Front government would not be able to provide a stable government after

next Lok Sabha election.

8. Decision Made. The answer to this question shows that Indian voters are quite

conscious about their voting powers. With less than one year to go to the polls,

about 70% of the respondents have already decided who they are going to vote for.

9. Peoples Verdict. The verdict of people for both the present ruling party and the

opposition is equally divided. While the falling price of rupee and rising inflation

rate are two crucial problems, and 50% respondents have said that even if thepresent government succeeds in controlling inflation they would not vote for it.

However, favour for the UPA also has touched the 50% mark as 32% respondents

have said they would vote for UPA only if it succeeds in controlling inflation, while

18% respondents have maintained loyalty to the present government.

10. Lok Pal Bill. 49% respondents have said that even if the present UPA government

passes the Lok Pal Bill by next election they would not vote for it. Only 32%

respondents have said they will vote for UPA only if it passes the Lok Pal Bill.

Here also 19% respondents have maintained loyalty to the present government.

Executive Summary

9%

54%

9%

7%

4%

17% Model of UPA followed at Central Govt.

Model of Gujarat Govt.lead by Narendra Modi

Model of Bihar Govt.lead by Nitish Kumar

Model of Madhya Pradesh Govt. lead by Chauhan

Model of Chhattisgarh Govt. lead by Raman Singh

None of the above .. India needs new model

The participants have voted for the growth model of Gujarat

government led by Narendra Modi as the best growth model for India.

Q 1. Which according to you is the best growth model for India?


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Stability Counts. The

question of Hung

Parliament has made

the participants tilt

towards the

combination that could

provide stablegovernment.

Q 3. How will the possibility of a hung parliament after the upcoming Lok Sabha

election affect your voting decision?

The joint influence of BJP and NDA faded in the face of Modi magic. A

whopping majority said that they would vote for BJP and NDA only if

Modi is declared as the Prime Ministerial candidate.

Q 4. How will BJP's declaration on making Narendra Modi as their Prime

Ministerial Candidate in the upcoming Lok Sabha election affect yourdecision on voting?

35%

65%

I shall be voting for the party or

candidate irrespective of who is

winning at Centre

I shall be voting for the party or

candidate who is winning at

Centre combination capable ofproviding stable Government

49%

13%

19%

19% I shall vote for BJP and NDA only when Modi is a P.M. Candidate

I shall vote for BJP and NDA when Modi is not declared as a P.M. Candidate

I shall vote for BJP and NDA whether or not Modi is declared as a P.M. Candidate

Will not vote for BJP and NDA


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Q 5. How will the Congress' declaration on making Rahul Gandhi as their Prime

Ministerial Candidate in the upcoming Lok Sabha election affect your voting

decision?

Q 6. Will your voting decision change in favour of any national political party if

they declare a credible and honest person like NR Narayan Murty as their

prime ministerial candidate?

The situation is not

working in favour of the

Congress-led UPA

government. About 52%

people have expressed

their reservation and said

that they wont vote forthe Congress and UPA

under any circumstance.

Credible leadership seems to be the decisive factor for the Indian

electorate. About 65% of the respondents are ready to change their voting

decision in favour of any national party if they declare a credible and

honest person as their Prime Ministerial candidate.

65%

35% Yes

No

21%

12%

15%

52%

I shall vote for Congress and UPA

only when Rahul Gandhi is a P.M.

Candidate

I shall vote for Congress and UPA

when Rahul Gandhi is not declared

as a P.M.Candidate

I shall vote for Congress and UPA.

Rahul Gandhi is not a factor for me

Will not vote for Congress and UPA


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Q 7. Do you think that the Third Front/Federal Front can provide a stable

government after the next Lok Sabha election?

Q 8. Have you decided on whom to vote for in the upcoming Lok Sabha election?

61% of the respondents

have said that Third Front

or Federal Front

government would not be

able to provide a stable

government

With less than one year to go to the polls, 70% of the respondents

have already decided who they are going to vote for.

39%

61%

Yes

No

70%

30%Yes

No


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3rd September 2013 | 9

Q 10. How will the passing of Lok Pal Bill before the next Lok Sabha election

impact your voting decision?

Q 9. Would you change your mind in the upcoming Lok Sabha election if the UPA

Govt. succeeds in controlling inflation?

50% of the respondents have said that they would not vote for UPA even

if it succeeds in controlling inflation

49% of the respondents

have said that even if

the present UPAgovernment passes the

Lok Pal Bill by next

election they would not

vote for it.

50%

18%

32% Under no circumstances shall I vote for UPA and Congress

I shall vote for UPA and Congress irrespective of inflation

I shall only vote for UPA and Congress if it controls inflation

49%

19%

32%

Under no circumstances shall I

vote for UPA and Congress

I shall vote for UPA and Congressirrespective of the Lok Pall Bill

I shall only vote for UPA and

Congress if it passes Lok Pall Bill

2014 lok sabha election prediction

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