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4Q17 Earnings Conference Call FEBRUARY 1, 2018

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Page 1: 4Q17 Earnings Conference Call - ConocoPhillipsstatic.conocophillips.com/.../reports/4q17-earnings... · Organic RRR (reserve replacement ratio) excludes the reserve impact of 2017

4Q17 Earnings Conference CallF E B R U A R Y 1 , 2 0 1 8

Page 2: 4Q17 Earnings Conference Call - ConocoPhillipsstatic.conocophillips.com/.../reports/4q17-earnings... · Organic RRR (reserve replacement ratio) excludes the reserve impact of 2017

Cautionary StatementThe following presentation includes forward-looking statements. These statements relate to future events, such as anticipated revenues, earnings, business strategies, competitive position or other aspects of our operations, operating results or the industries or markets in which we operate or participate in general. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may prove to be incorrect and are difficult to predict such as operational hazards and drilling risks; potential failure to achieve, and potential delays in achieving expected reserves or production levels from existing and future oil and gas development projects; unsuccessful exploratory activities; difficulties in developing new products and manufacturing processes; unexpected cost increases or technical difficulties in constructing, maintaining or modifying company facilities; international monetary conditions and exchange rate fluctuations; our ability to complete the sale of our announced dispositions on the timeline currently anticipated, if at all; the possibility that regulatory approvals for our announced dispositions will not be received on a timely basis, if at all, or that such approvals may require modification to the terms of our announced dispositions or our remaining business; business disruptions during or following our announced dispositions, including the diversion of management time and attention; our ability to liquidate the common stock issued to us by Cenovus Energy Inc. at prices we deem acceptable, or at all; the ability to deploy net proceeds from our announced dispositions in the manner and timeframe we currently anticipate, if at all; potential liability for remedial actions under existing or future environmental regulations or from pending or future litigation; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; general domestic and international economic and political conditions, and changes in tax, environmental and other laws applicable to ConocoPhillips’ business; and other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting ConocoPhillips’ business generally as set forth in ConocoPhillips’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). We caution you not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements, which are only as of the date of this presentation or as otherwise indicated, and we expressly disclaim any responsibility for updating such information.

Use of non-GAAP financial information – This presentation may include non-GAAP financial measures, which help facilitate comparison of company operating performance across periods and with peer companies. Any non-GAAP measures included herein will be accompanied by a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure either within the presentation or on our website at www.conocophillips.com/nongaap.

Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors – The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible reserves. We use the term "resource" in this presentation that the SEC’s guidelines prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the oil and gas disclosures in our Form 10-K and other reports and filings with the SEC. Copies are available from the SEC and from the ConocoPhillips website.

2

Page 3: 4Q17 Earnings Conference Call - ConocoPhillipsstatic.conocophillips.com/.../reports/4q17-earnings... · Organic RRR (reserve replacement ratio) excludes the reserve impact of 2017

R YA N L A N C E Chairman & CEO

Page 4: 4Q17 Earnings Conference Call - ConocoPhillipsstatic.conocophillips.com/.../reports/4q17-earnings... · Organic RRR (reserve replacement ratio) excludes the reserve impact of 2017

Delivering on Our Disciplined, Returns-Focused Value Proposition

4

2017: Full Activation of our Plan 2018: Execute the Plan, Plus

► Portfolio reset; ~$16B dispositions; strong organic RRR1 Portfolio ► Maintain capital scope;

bolt-on transaction in Alaska

► CFO2 > capital by $2.5B; improving CROCE/ROCE Free cash flow ► Focus on free cash flow generation;

strong price upside

► Reduced debt by ~30% to <$20B; improved credit rating Balance sheet ► Debt reduced by $2.25B in January

► Returned 61% of CFO2 to shareholders Shareholder distributions

► Increased dividend by ~7.5% and 2018 planned share buybacks by 33%

► Production of 1,356 MBOED; delivered19% underlying growth per DASh3 Growth per DASh3 ► Expect 13% growth per DASh3;

activate Lower 48 growth engine

► Strong safety performance; announced GHG reduction target ESG Leadership ► Continued focus on ESG excellence

1 Organic RRR (reserve replacement ratio) excludes the reserve impact of 2017 asset dispositions and production includes Libya and fuel gas.2 CFO is $7.1B and cash provided by operating activities excluding working capital is $7.1B, as operating working capital had a minimal change. Dividends paid of $1.3B and share repurchases of $3.0B.3 Production per debt-adjusted share (DASh) growth is calculated on an underlying production basis using ending period debt divided by ending share price plus ending shares outstanding. Underlying production excludes the full impact from closed and planned asset dispositions. 2018 assumes $2B of share repurchases, representing 33 million of shares using the closing price of $60.49 per-share on 01/24/18 and assuming no other changes in common shares outstanding. Free Cash Flow is defined as when cash provided by operating activities (CFO) excluding operating working capital covers capital expenditures & investments. Free Cash Flow is a non-GAAP term. A non-GAAP definition is available on our website.Production excludes Libya. CROCE and ROCE are non-GAAP terms. A non-GAAP definition of each is available on our website.

Page 5: 4Q17 Earnings Conference Call - ConocoPhillipsstatic.conocophillips.com/.../reports/4q17-earnings... · Organic RRR (reserve replacement ratio) excludes the reserve impact of 2017

D O N WA L L E T T E EVP, Finance, Commercial & CFO

Page 6: 4Q17 Earnings Conference Call - ConocoPhillipsstatic.conocophillips.com/.../reports/4q17-earnings... · Organic RRR (reserve replacement ratio) excludes the reserve impact of 2017

Strong Momentum on Improving Profitability

6

Adjusted EPS ($) ($0.26) $0.16 $0.45

Average Realized Price ($/BOE) $32.93 $39.49 $46.10

• Full-year 2017 adjusted earnings of $0.7B

• 4Q17 adjusted earnings benefited from improved realized prices, higher underlying production1, and lower depreciation expense

• Focused on increasing returns(318)

198

540

4Q16 3Q17 4Q17

Adjusted Earnings ($MM)

4Q17 Adjusted Earnings ($MM)

Highlights

Lower 48 $14

Canada ($38)

Alaska $283

Europe & North Africa $162

Asia Pacific & Middle East $368

Other International ($31)

Corporate & Other ($218)

Total $540

1 Underlying production growth excludes the full impact from closed and planned asset dispositions.Profitability is based on adjusted earnings.Adjusted earnings (loss) and adjusted EPS (loss) are non-GAAP measures. A non-GAAP reconciliation is available on our website.

Page 7: 4Q17 Earnings Conference Call - ConocoPhillipsstatic.conocophillips.com/.../reports/4q17-earnings... · Organic RRR (reserve replacement ratio) excludes the reserve impact of 2017

Strong Financial Position Entering 2018

7

9.68.2

2.50.1 0.1 1.3

1.5

0.3 1.0

4Q17 BeginningCash & Short-

TermInvestments¹

CFO ExcludingOperating

Working Capital

Total WorkingCapital²

DispositionProceeds

Debt CapitalExpenditures

& Investments

Dividends Repurchase ofCompany

Common Stock

4Q17 EndingCash & Short-

TermInvestments¹

4Q17 $B4Q17 Marker Prices

• Brent $61.39/BBL• WTI $55.35/BBL• Henry Hub $2.93/MMBTU

1 Beginning cash and short-term investments include cash and cash equivalents of $6.9B and short-term investments of $2.7B. Ending cash and short-term investments include cash and cash equivalents of $6.3B and short-term investments of $1.9B.2 Total working capital includes ($0.05B) and $0.15B of working capital changes associated with operating activities and investing activities, respectively.

Includes $0.3B from

Ecuador settlement

Includes $0.2B from L48 acreage

acquisitions

Page 8: 4Q17 Earnings Conference Call - ConocoPhillipsstatic.conocophillips.com/.../reports/4q17-earnings... · Organic RRR (reserve replacement ratio) excludes the reserve impact of 2017

7.1

4.6

2017 CFO Excluding

Operating Working Capital¹

2017 Capital Expenditures &

Investments

Focused on Free Cash Flow Generation and Delivering Priorities

8

• CFO1 exceeded capital expenditures and investments by $2.5B

• Generated cash proceeds from asset sales of $13.9B

• Paid $7.9B to reduce debt; year-end debt <$20B• Funded $3B of share repurchases

• Increased planned 2018 buyback to $2B4

• 2018 ongoing focus on free cash flow generation; strong price upside

13.9

7.9Debt

3.0 Buybacks

2017 Cash DispositionProceeds²

2017 Debt Reduction and Repurchase of

Company Common Stock³

Free Cash Flow is defined as when cash provided by operating activities (CFO) excluding operating working capital covers capital expenditures & investments. Free Cash Flow is a non-GAAP term. A non-GAAP definition is available on our website.1 CFO is $7.1B and cash provided by operating activities excluding operating working capital is $7.1B, as operating working capital had a minimal change.2 Cash Dispositions Proceeds excludes $2.0B of Cenovus Equity.3 Debt reduction and repurchase of company common stock include $7.9B of debt repayment and $3.0B of repurchased company common stock. 4 Increase to 2018 share buybacks is part of the $6B share repurchase program, $3B which is remaining, $2B now scheduled for 2018.

FREE CASH FLOW

$2.5B

2017 Marker Prices• Brent $54.27/BBL• WTI $50.90/BBL• Henry Hub $3.11/MMBTU

10.9

$B

Page 9: 4Q17 Earnings Conference Call - ConocoPhillipsstatic.conocophillips.com/.../reports/4q17-earnings... · Organic RRR (reserve replacement ratio) excludes the reserve impact of 2017

A L H I R S H B E R G EVP, Production, Drilling & Projects

Page 10: 4Q17 Earnings Conference Call - ConocoPhillipsstatic.conocophillips.com/.../reports/4q17-earnings... · Organic RRR (reserve replacement ratio) excludes the reserve impact of 2017

6,424

4,520 5,038

(1,904)

605

431

518

YE 2016Reserves

Dispositions YE 2016 ExcludingDispositions

2017 Production¹ Net Additions Market Factors YE 2017Reserves

2017 Preliminary Reserve Replacement

RRR repre.sents reserve replacement ratioAll reserves are in MMBOE.1 Production includes Libya, fuel gas, and 72 MMBOE from closed and planned dispositions.

Canada 67%Lower 48 33%

(168%) Total RRR

replacement from net additions

117%organic reserve replacement ratio

200%

10

Page 11: 4Q17 Earnings Conference Call - ConocoPhillipsstatic.conocophillips.com/.../reports/4q17-earnings... · Organic RRR (reserve replacement ratio) excludes the reserve impact of 2017

2017 Operating Highlights

11

1 Underlying production growth excludes the full impact from closed and planned asset dispositions. Production excludes Libya.Big 3 unconventionals includes Eagle Ford, Bakken and Delaware.

• Strong operational and safety performance

• Delivered 3% underlying production growth1 for $4.6B of capital; 19% growth on a per debt-adjusted share basis

• Successfully activated Lower 48 Big 3 growth engine• 236 MBOED in 4Q17 vs 214 MBOED in 4Q16; 10% growth• $0.2B Lower 48 unconventional acreage acquisitions in 4Q17

• Progressed projects across the portfolio

• Advanced exploration opportunities in Alaska and Canada

• Announced target to reduce GHG emissions intensity by 5-15% by 2030

Delaware

Page 12: 4Q17 Earnings Conference Call - ConocoPhillipsstatic.conocophillips.com/.../reports/4q17-earnings... · Organic RRR (reserve replacement ratio) excludes the reserve impact of 2017

What to Watch For in 2018 – Deliver with Discipline

12

• $5.5B capital plan unchanged

• Expect 2018 full-year underlying production per debt-adjusted share growth2 of ~13% vs. 2017

• 1Q18 production guidance of 1,180 to 1,220 MBOED• 2018 production guidance of 1,195 to 1,235 MBOED• Turnarounds scheduled in APME, Europe and Alaska in 2Q and 3Q• Lower 48 Big 3 ramping through the year to >20% growth

• Expect first production at Bohai Phase 3, Clair Ridge, AastaHansteen and GMT-1

• Enter FEED on Darwin LNG backfill

• Significant exploration programs in Alaska, Montney, and Lower 481 Underlying production excludes the full impact from closed or planned asset dispositions. 2 Production per debt-adjusted share growth is calculated on an underlying production basis using ending period debt divided by ending share price plus ending shares outstanding. 2018 assumes $2B of share repurchases, representing 33 million of shares using the closing price of $60.49 per-share on 01/24/18 and assuming no other changes in common shares outstanding. 3 Production per-share growth is defined as underlying production, divided by ending common shares outstanding. Year-end 2017 common shares outstanding were 1,177 million shares. 2018 assumes $2B of share repurchases, representing 33 million of shares using the closing price of $60.49 per-share on 01/24/18 and assuming no other changes in common shares outstanding. Production excludes Libya. Adjusted operating cost is a non-GAAP measure. A non-GAAP reconciliation is available on our website.

~7%PRODUCTION PER-SHARE GROWTH3

~5%UNDERLYINGPRODUCTION1

GROWTH

~13%PRODUCTION PER DEBT-ADJUSTED SHARE GROWTH2

1,165

191

1,356

1,195 - 1,235

FY17 FY18E

Production (MBOED)

Dispositions1

Page 13: 4Q17 Earnings Conference Call - ConocoPhillipsstatic.conocophillips.com/.../reports/4q17-earnings... · Organic RRR (reserve replacement ratio) excludes the reserve impact of 2017

Question & Answer Session

Page 14: 4Q17 Earnings Conference Call - ConocoPhillipsstatic.conocophillips.com/.../reports/4q17-earnings... · Organic RRR (reserve replacement ratio) excludes the reserve impact of 2017

Appendix

Page 15: 4Q17 Earnings Conference Call - ConocoPhillipsstatic.conocophillips.com/.../reports/4q17-earnings... · Organic RRR (reserve replacement ratio) excludes the reserve impact of 2017

3.78.2

7.1 0.1

13.9

0.2

7.9

4.61.3

3.0

2017 BeginningCash & Short-

TermInvestments¹

CFO ExcludingOperatingWorkingCapital

Total WorkingCapital²

DispositionProceeds

Debt CapitalExpenditures

& Investments

Dividends Repurchase ofCompany

Common Stock

Other 2017 EndingCash & Short-

TermInvestments¹

2017 Marker Prices• Brent $54.27/BBL• WTI $50.90/BBL• Henry Hub $3.11/MMBTU

2017 Performance – Company Cash Flow

15

$B

1 Beginning cash and short-term investments include cash and cash equivalents of $3.6B and short-term investments of $0.1B. Ending cash and short-term investments include cash and cash equivalents of $6.3B and short-term investments of $1.9B.2 Total working capital includes $0.02B and $0.1B of working capital changes associated with operating activities and investing activities, respectively.

Page 16: 4Q17 Earnings Conference Call - ConocoPhillipsstatic.conocophillips.com/.../reports/4q17-earnings... · Organic RRR (reserve replacement ratio) excludes the reserve impact of 2017

1,150

20

185

1,355

1,180 – 1,220

2017 2018E AIM

2018 Production Guidance

161 Underlying production excludes the full impact from closed and planned asset dispositions.Production excludes Libya.

Dispositions3

Production (MBOED)Production (MBOED)

Analyst and Investor Meeting 2018 Guidance

1,165

191

1,356

1,195 – 1,235

2017 2018E

2018 Guidance

2017 Dispositions1 Underlying Production1Dispositions in Progress1 Closed and Planned Dispositions1

Page 17: 4Q17 Earnings Conference Call - ConocoPhillipsstatic.conocophillips.com/.../reports/4q17-earnings... · Organic RRR (reserve replacement ratio) excludes the reserve impact of 2017

Full-Year 2018 Guidance

17

Adjusted operating cost, adjusted corporate segment net loss, and exploration dry hole and leasehold impairment expense are non-GAAP measures. A non-GAAP reconciliation is available on our website.Guidance excludes special items. Production excludes Libya.

• Full-year 2018 production: 1,195 – 1,235 MBOED

• 1Q18 production: 1,180 – 1,220 MBOED

• Adjusted operating costs: $5.7B

• Capital expenditures: $5.5B

• DD&A: $5.8B

• Adjusted corporate segment net loss: $1.0B

• Exploration dry hole and leasehold impairment expense: $0.2B

Bakken

Page 18: 4Q17 Earnings Conference Call - ConocoPhillipsstatic.conocophillips.com/.../reports/4q17-earnings... · Organic RRR (reserve replacement ratio) excludes the reserve impact of 2017

2018 Annualized Net Income Sensitivities

18

$45-$65/BBL WTI

Crude• Brent/ANS: $105-125MM for $1/BBL change • WTI: $45-55MM for $1/BBL change • WCS¹: $10-15MM for $1/BBL change

• Does not incorporate contingent payment of CA$6MM quarterly for every CA$1 WCS price above CA$52/BBL

North American NGL• Representative blend: $5-10MM for $1/BBL change

Natural Gas• Henry Hub: $25-35MM for $0.25/MCF change

• Does not incorporate contingent payment of $7MM monthly if average Henry Hub price is at or above $3.20/MMBTU (capped at $300MM)

• International gas: $10-15MM for $0.25/MCF change

1 WCS price used for the sensitivity represents a volumetric weighted average of Shorcan and Net Energy indices.The published sensitivities above reflect annual estimates and may not apply to quarterly results due to lift timing/product sales differences, significant turnaround activity or other unforeseen portfolio shifts in production. Additionally, the above sensitivities apply to a range of commodity price fluctuations as of Feb. 1, 2018, but may not apply to significant and unexpected increases or decreases.

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2018 Annualized Cash Flow Sensitivities

19

Crude:

• Brent/ANS: ~$100-110MM for $1/BBL change

• WTI: ~$55-65MM for $1/BBL change

• WCS: ~$15-20MM for $1/BBL change

Lower 48 NGL

• Representative Blend: ~$10-15MM for $1/BBL change

Natural Gas

• Henry Hub: ~$35-45MM for $0.25/MCF change

• Int’l Gas: ~$10-15MM for $0.25/MCF change

Consolidated Operations($45-$65/BBL WTI)

Equity Affiliates1

($50-$65/BBL WTI)

• Expect distributions from all equity affiliates at >$50/BBL

• $1/BBL movement in Brent: ~$30-40MM

Net Cash Flow from Contingent Payment

1 Representative of CFO within Equity Affiliates, may not all be distributed. Assumes WCS moves proportionally to WTI. Contracted LNG within equity affiliates is subject to a 3-month pricing lag. The published sensitivities above reflect annual estimates and may not apply to quarterly results due to lift timing/product sales differences, significant turnaround activity or other unforeseen portfolio shifts in production. Additionally, the above sensitivities apply to a range of commodity price fluctuations as of Feb. 1, 2018, but may not apply to significant and unexpected increases or decreases.

• CA $6MM quarterly for every CA$1 WCS price above CA$52/BBL

• $7MM monthly if average Henry Hub price is at or above $3.20/MMBTU (capped at $300MM)