500,00,000.00

714285.7143

Long term (3 to 6 Months)

“

”

● MCX to allow negative price in crude futures trading from July 27

● Banks sanction Rs 1.23 trn loans to MSMEs under credit guarantee scheme

● FPIs pull out Rs 9,015 cr in July so far, remain net sellers in Indian mkts

Rupee opens higher tracking

gains in Asian currencies

● China keeps benchmark lending rate steady for 3rd straight month

● Japan govt to pay at least $536 million for companies to leave China

IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |

From CEO's Desk

Medium term (Upto 3 Months) Intraday

Note: The above outlook is based on IFA Global Research Academy Proprietary ("IFA Dollar - Rupee Sentiment Index") based on various

techno-fundamental factors relevant to the particular outlook horizon. The index weights have been arrived at after rigorous back testing.

The factors which are considered for computation of barometers includes pre-defined and back tested weightage given to fundamental

factors such as economic data, FII flows, Global equity markets, Government & RBI activity, Onshore-offshore activity, other peer currency

performance and other macro economic factors. Further, this module also considers factors such as major MPC member's speech,

meeting or summit. On the technical front, factors include indicators and oscillators such as RSI, stochastic, combination of moving

averages and other basic & advance technical studies. (0 - 20%=extremely bearish, 21% - 40%=bearish, 41% - 60%=neutral, 61% -

80%=bullish, 81% - 100% extremely bullish)

News On The Street

55% 76% 75%

Mr. Abhishek Goenka

The EU leaders failed to reach an agreement over the EUR 750bn Recovery plan

despite the summit having been extended by a day. Countries labelled the 'frugal four'

want reforms to be linked to the grants. Dutch Prime Minister Rutte especially has been

very vocal about the need to disburse grants based on end use criteria and

commensurate reforms being undertaken. The US Senate would convene again post

the recess from today onwards. The key focus would be on the fourth and final

stimulus package. The details in particular that would matter most would be the size of

checks and eligibility criteria (income threshold) for receiving checks and whether a

cut in payroll taxes is part of the stimulus. The market is expecting the stimulus

package to be anywhere between USD 1-1.5Tn. A liberal stimulus package would be

risk positive and Dollar negative in general and vice versa. Not much on the data front

this week. RBI's FX Reserves rose by another USD 3.1bn to a record USD 516.3bn. We

may continue to see the Rupee trade in the 74.50-75.50 range if the US Dollar remains

stable globally. We could see 74.50 get tested again. Among Asian currencies,

Indonesian Rupiah continues to weaken. Rupee is likely to trade 74.75-75.15 with

down side bias. Equities are likely to trade with a positive bias.

Strategy: Exporters were advised to cover around 75.50 through forwards. At lower

levels only cover through option strategy. Importers are advised to hold maintaining a

stop loss of 75.50 or cover through risk reversals options. The 3M range for USDINR is

73.60 - 76.50 and the 6M range is 73.00 – 77.00.

IFA Dollar- Rupee Sentiment Index

“USDINR

$ INDEX

EURUSD

GBPUSD

USDJPY

AUDUSD

GOLD

”

July 20, 2020

0.6450- 0.7100

105.50-110.00 ↓

Q2 FY 2020-21

FX Outlook for the day

95.50- 99.50 ↓

1.0950-1.1450 ↑ 1.1200-1.1800 ↑

Q3 FY 2020-21

0.6800- 0.7500

96.00- 100.00

1.2000-1.2600 1.2400-1.3000 ↑

0.6500- 0.7000

95.00- 100.00 ↓ 95.00- 100.00 ↓

$1550- $1850 ↑

1.1000-1.1650 ↑

1.2600-1.3200 ↑

73.00 - 77.00 ↑73.00-77.00 ↑

$1600- $1900 ↑

105.00-109.00 ↓

● USDINR (RANGE- 74.75 - 75.15)

The dollar is broadly weak as investors bet on more stimulus from

Europe and the United States. Expectations of more government

spending have offset worries about rising coronavirus cases in the

United States as well as fears over deteriorating U.S.-China relations.

Japan's trade Balance total recovered from ¥-838.2 Bn previous

readings to ¥-268.8 Bn but stayed below ¥-35.8 Bn forecast.

USDINR pair opened lower below 75.00 mark as the Rupee

strengthened tracking gains in Asian peers coupled with positive global

equities. We could see 74.50 get tested again. RBI is likely to continue

preventing the Rupee from strengthening too much in relative terms

and contain the volatility. We may continue to see the Rupee trade in

the 74.50-75.50 range if the US Dollar remains stable globally.

The EU leaders failed to reach an agreement over the EUR 750bn

Recovery plan despite the summit having been extended by a day.

Countries labelled the 'frugal four' want reforms to be linked to the

grants. However, the fact that EU leaders continue to remain

committed to the plan is preventing the Euro from depreciating steeply.

The leaders may eventually settle for a 50/50 loan to grant ratio.

● USDJPY (RANGE- 106.90 - 107.60)

Q4 FY 2020-21

● EURUSD (RANGE- 1.1350 - 1.1470)

IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |

Pound remains under pressure amid the lack of progress in Brexit talks

and rising prospects of negative interest rates. BOE’s Governor Bailey

said that interest rates will stay very low and expressed concerns about

QE. Meanwhile, PM Boris Johnson eased some lockdown measures on

Friday, but also announced local authorities will have power to shut

down smaller areas of the country if necessary.

● GBPUSD (RANGE- 1.2480 - 1.2570)

IFA Outlook

Q1 FY 2021-22

73.00-76.00 ↑

DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT

$1600- $1850 ↑

EU summit, Brexit

headlines and macro

data to set the theme

for the short term.

$1450- $1800 ↑

107.00-112.00 106.00-111.00

1.0800-1.1450 ↓

73.60-76.50 ↑

1.2300-1.2800 ↑

0.6600-0.7100 ↑

“

”

“

”

“

”

● FII activity against USDINR and Nifty

July 20, 2020

Highest OI for Put

stands at 75.00 and

for Call at 75.50 &

76.00. Highest OI

intraday

buildup is at 75.50

Call and unwinding

at 74.50 Put

Chart of the Day USDINR Spot: 74.95

● USDINR Open Interest (July expiry )

DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT

USDINR pair gave a gap down opening today at 74.92.

Daily middle bollinger level held as strong resistance in

the last one week. Currently, it has shifted to 75.30.

74.90 - 75.00 range is the immediate support zone. The

intraday view for the pair remains neutral to bearish.

FIIs have so far

withdrawn $15.14

billion in the

calendar year 2020

Activity Kurtosis

IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |

LIBOR ON 1M 6M 1Y MONTH 1M 3M 1Y 2Y

USD 0.09 0.18 0.33 0.47 USDINR 0.22 0.68 2.88 6.51

EUR -0.58 -0.49 -0.40 -0.29 EURINR 0.32 0.95 4.01 8.96

JPY 0.04 -0.07 -0.03 0.10 GBPINR 0.30 0.90 3.80 8.54

JPYINR 0.23 0.72 3.11 7.08

REGION LAST % CHANGE LAST CHANGE % CHANGE

ASIA 25183 0.37 1809.00 -0.85 -0.05

3298 2.62 19.71 -0.05 -0.26

22704 0.03 42.88 -0.26 -0.60

INDIA 37394 1.01 96.15 0.21 0.21

11008 0.98 103.10 -0.08 -0.08

EUROPE 5069 -0.31

12920 0.35 FY 2020-21 CY 2020 17-Jul-20

6290 0.63 23,459 -24,571 -1,202

US 26672 -0.23 -31,191 -93,786 -866

10503 0.28 2,446 4,797 4

-5,286 -1,13,560 -2,064

“ Pivot S2 S1 P R1 R2

USDINR 74.16 74.68 75.01 75.53 75.86

EURINR 84.45 84.71 84.94 85.20 85.43

GBPINR 92.13 93.52 94.38 95.77 96.63

JPYINR 68.71 69.51 70.03 70.83 71.35

”

Currency Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

17-Jul EUR 2:30 PM 0.30% 0.3% 0.1% Neutral

USD 6:00 PM 1.241M 1.290M 1.216M Bearish

20-Jul JPY 5:20 AM -268.8Bn -35.8B -838.2B Bearish

CNY 7:00 AM 3.85% -- 3.85% Neutral

EUR 11:30 AM 0.2% -0.4%

CAC

DAX

Major Global Rates

LIBOR Rates

COMMODITIES/DIGLOBAL INDICES

Quick Glance

FPI INFLOWS

Bloomberg ADXY

GOLD ($/ounce)

Brent ($/brl)

SILVER ($/ounce)

HANG SENG

SHANGHAI

NIKKEI

SENSEX

NIFTY

Dollar INDEX

Rolling Forward Premiums (in paise)

Figures are in INR Crores

IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |

Major Global Events

Macro Monitor

TOTAL

EQUITY

CPI (YoY) (Jun)

DEBT

Trade Balance (Jun)

German PPI (MoM) (Jun)

FTSE

PBoC Loan Prime Rate

Building Permits (Jun)

Pivot Points

HYBRID

GBPINR is likely to find support at S1

(93.52)

DOW

NASDAQ

DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT July 20, 2020

IMPORTANT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER

While every effort has been made to ensure that the data quoted and used for the research behind this document is reliable, there is no guarantee that it is correct, and IFA Global can accept no liability whatsoever in respect of any errors or omissions, or regarding the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. This document does not constitute a recommendation to sell and/or buy any financial products and is not to be considered as a solicitation and/or an offer to enter into any transaction. This document is a piece of economic research and is not intended to constitute investment advice, nor to solicit dealing in securities or in any other kind of investments. Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. IFA Global makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change. Any prices stated in this report are for information purposes only and do not represent valuations for individual securities or other instruments.

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