500,00,000.00 714285...india’s direct tax collection drop by over a third in april-june ... the...

500,00,000.00

714285.7143

Long term (3 to 6 Months)

“

”

From CEO's Desk

Medium term (Upto 3 Months) Intraday

Note: The above outlook is based on IFA Global Research Academy Proprietary ("IFA Dollar - Rupee Sentiment Index") based on various

techno-fundamental factors relevant to the particular outlook horizon. The index weights have been arrived at after rigorous back testing.

The factors which are considered for computation of barometers includes pre-defined and back tested weightage given to fundamental

factors such as economic data, FII flows, Global equity markets, Government & RBI activity, Onshore-offshore activity, other peer currency

performance and other macro economic factors. Further, this module also considers factors such as major MPC member's speech,

meeting or summit. On the technical front, factors include indicators and oscillators such as RSI, stochastic, combination of moving

averages and other basic & advance technical studies. (0 - 20%=extremely bearish, 21% - 40%=bearish, 41% - 60%=neutral, 61% -

80%=bullish, 81% - 100% extremely bullish)

News On The Street

80% 76% 75%

Mr. Abhishek Goenka

In the most serious escalation in Indo-China tensions since 1962, 20 Indian soldiers

were martyred. The Rupee weakened from 75.85 to 76.30 after the news came in. The

RBI however sold aggressively in futures to eventually get it to close at 76.10. However

the Rupee got spooked in offshore again and saw lows of around 76.50. The troops

have disengaged and talks are on between both government and militaries to defuse

the tensions. The developments on this front will be tracked very closely. While an all

out armed conflict is not likely, imposition of economic/trade sanctions will be taken

negatively by markets. Rupee is likely to open around 76.38 and trade 76.10-76.55

range. We may see nationalized banks offering USD at higher levels to smoothen

volatility. The US Dollar too has strengthened post much better than expected May

Retail sales data. Retail sales jumped 17.7% MoM in May and ex Auto 12.4%. Globally

therefore, the sentiment continues to be in favor of risky assets. The Dow ended with

gains of 2%. Germany ZEW sentiment came in better than expected. Pound however

has come off significantly after disappointing UK labor data yesterday. The BoE rate

decision is due tomorrow.

Strategy: Exporters are advised to hold with a stop loss of 75.80. Break of 76.50 will be

crucial on the higher side. Importers are advised to cover through options. The 3M

range for USDINR is 74.50 - 77.50 and the 6M range is 74.00 – 80.00.

IFA Dollar- Rupee Sentiment Index

● Japan's exports fall most since 2009 as U.S. demand slumps

● U.S. bank profits plunge 70% on coronavirus loss provisioning

Rupee spooked as India-China

tensions escalate

●Bank of Japan pledges $1tn in coronavirus loans

● India’s direct tax collection drop by over a third in April-June

IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |

● Twenty Indian soldiers killed in clash with Chinese troops in Himalayas

“USDINR

$ INDEX

EURUSD

GBPUSD

USDJPY

AUDUSD

GOLD

”

Q2 FY 2020-21

FX Outlook for the day

Q1 FY 2020-21

DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT

$1580- $1840 ↑

95.50- 100.00 ↓

1.1000-1.1650 ↑1.0950-1.1450 ↑

1.2600-1.3200 ↑

74.00 - 80.00 ↑74.00-80.00 ↑

Geopolitical tensions

is likely to keep risky

assets under

pressure

$1450- $1800 ↑$1550- $1850 ↑

107.00-112.00 106.00-111.00

1.0800-1.1450 ↓

74.00-80.00 ↑

0.6800- 0.7500

105.50-110.00 ↓

96.00- 101.00

1.2000-1.2600 1.2400-1.3000 ↑

0.6500- 0.7000

95.00- 100.00 ↓

● USDINR (RANGE- 76.10 - 76.55)

The USDJPY pair is trading on a flat note around 107.25 amid mixed

risk sentiment globally. Yesterday, Fed Powell testified that the sales

figures were evident that demand was being supported. However, he

further noted that a full economic recovery was unlikely until the

coronavirus outbreak has been contained. Japan's May export data

plummeted -28.3% vs -21.9%, marking the steepest fall since October

2009.

USDINR pair opened near yesterday's close at 76.20 as an escalation in

border tensions between India and China is weighing on the domestic

assets. Asian currencies also weakened as tensions escalated between

North Korea and South Korea. The steep upside move in USDINR pair is

likely to stay off the table as we may see nationalized banks offering

USD at higher levels to smoothen volatility.

The EURUSD pair touched an intraday high of 1.1350 yesterday but

reversed its course during the U.S. trading session, erasing more than

100 pips and slumping to a daily low of 1.1228. The US Dollar Index

was up 0.4% 97.01 and the 10-year US Treasury bond was gaining

3.7% at 0.75% on upbeat retail sales data. Focus now will turn to

Eurozone inflation data due later today.

● USDJPY (RANGE- 107.00 - 108.00)

Q3 FY 2020-21

● EURUSD (RANGE- 1.1210 - 1.1300)


The recent bout of risk-off sentiment has pushed cable lower and now

the price has moved below 1.26 once again. The pound has been

suffering on the political front amid no major outcome of the recent

round of Brexit talks between UK and the EU commission. Another

large increase in quantitative easing and more chatter about negative

rates from Governor Bailey is expected in tomorrow's MPC meeting.

● GBPUSD (RANGE- 1.2620 - 1.2720)

IFA Outlook

Q4 FY 2020-21

June 17, 2020

0.6450- 0.7100

95.00- 100.00 ↓

$1600- $1900 ↑

74.50-77.50 ↑

105.00-109.00 ↓

1.1200-1.1800 ↑

1.2400-1.2900 ↑

0.6600-0.7100 ↑

“

”

“

”

“

”


Yesterday, the USDINR pair breached immediate

resistance of 76.15 and ended the session near two

month high at 76.21. EMA 5-22 has given a bullish

crossover yesterday indicating fresh start of bullish

momentum after over two months consolidation in

75.00-76.00 range. Immediate hurdle on the higher

side now stands near 76.50, if it breaks then the next

target will be 76.90 -77.00 levels. The intraday view

remains bullish for the pair.

FIIs have so far

withdrawn $14.70

billion in the

calendar year 2020

Activity Kurtosis


Highest OI for Put

stands at 75.00 and

for Call at 76.50 &

76.00. Highest OI

intraday buildup is

seen at 76.25 Put

and 76.75 Call

Chart of the Day USDINR Spot: 76.21

● USDINR Open Interest (June expiry )

● FII activity against USDINR and Nifty

June 17, 2020

LIBOR ON 1M 6M 1Y MONTH 1M 3M 1Y 2Y

USD 0.07 0.19 0.43 0.59 USDINR 0.21 0.66 2.87 6.69

EUR -0.57 -0.47 -0.29 -0.17 EURINR 0.30 0.93 4.02 9.14

JPY 0.04 -0.09 -0.02 0.10 GBPINR 0.28 0.88 3.80 8.71

JPYINR 0.23 0.72 3.23 7.41

REGION LAST % CHANGE LAST CHANGE % CHANGE

ASIA 24343 -0.01 1732.00 -3.65 -0.22

2929 -0.10 17.34 -0.14 -0.8

22398 -0.81 40.12 -0.83 -2.03

INDIA 33616 0.03 97.04 0.08 0.09

9928 0.14 102.46 -0.13 -0.13

EUROPE 4952 2.85

12316 3.39 FY 2020-21 CY 2020 16-Jun-20

6243 2.94 28,358 -19,673 -2,663

US 26290 2.04 -32,687 -95,282 -140

9896 1.75 606 2,957 3

-3,723 -1,11,998 -2,800

“ Pivot S2 S1 P R1 R2

USDINR 75.04 75.55 75.89 76.40 76.74

EURINR 84.09 84.85 85.72 86.48 87.35

GBPINR 93.63 94.50 95.74 96.61 97.85

JPYINR 67.77 69.29 70.40 71.92 73.03

”

Currency Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

16-Jun EUR 11:30 AM -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% Neutral

EUR 2:30 PM 63.4 60 51 Bullish

USD 6:00 PM 17.70% 8.0% -16.4% Bullish

USD 6:45 PM 1.40% 2.90% -11.20% Bearish

17-Jun GBP 11:30 AM -0.10% -0.20%

EUR 2:30 PM -0.1% 0.3%

USD 6:00 PM 1.228M 1.066M

German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun)

COMMODITIES/DI

Pivot Points

GLOBAL INDICES

HYBRID

June 17, 2020

USDINR pair is likely to find intraday

resistance at 76.40 (R1)

Quick Glance

FPI INFLOWS

Bloomberg ADXY

GOLD ($/ounce)

Brent ($/brl)

SILVER ($/ounce)

Rolling Forward Premiums (in paise)


Major Global Rates

LIBOR Rates


Figures are in INR Crores

Major Global Events

Macro Monitor

TOTAL

EQUITY

German CPI (MoM) (May)

Retail Sales (MoM) (May)

DEBT

Industrial Production (MoM) (May)

CPI (MoM) (May)

CPI (MoM) (May)

Building Permits (May)

Dollar INDEX

CAC

DAX

FTSE

DOW

NASDAQ

HANG SENG

SHANGHAI

NIKKEI

SENSEX

NIFTY

IMPORTANT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER

While every effort has been made to ensure that the data quoted and used for the research behind this document is reliable, there is no guarantee that it is correct, and IFA Global can accept no liability whatsoever in respect of any errors or omissions, or regarding the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. This document does not constitute a recommendation to sell and/or buy any financial products and is not to be considered as a solicitation and/or an offer to enter into any transaction. This document is a piece of economic research and is not intended to constitute investment advice, nor to solicit dealing in securities or in any other kind of investments. Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. IFA Global makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change. Any prices stated in this report are for information purposes only and do not represent valuations for individual securities or other instruments.

Headquarters:-

India Forex Advisors Pvt. Ltd. H-125, 1st Floor, Kanakia Zillion, LBS Marg,

CST Road Junction, Bandra Kurla Complex Annexe, Kurla West, Mumbai-400070

Research & Analytics Desk: +91 8879390076 | Treasury Audit & Bank Negotiation Desk: +91 8879630572 |

FX & Treasury Advisory Desk: +91 8879600618 | FX Trading & Options Desk: +91 8291983820

Email: [email protected] You can also visit our website: www.ifaglobal.net

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