a knowledge-based system to generate internet weather forecasts
DESCRIPTION
A knowledge-based system to generate internet weather forecasts. Dr Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. … a work in progress . Introduction. A “pilot” knowledge-based system for the generation of internet forecasts is described. The system has been developed for Victoria. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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A knowledge-based system to generate internet weather forecasts.
Dr Harvey Stern,Bureau of Meteorology, Australia
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… a work in progress ...
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IntroductionIntroduction
• A “pilot” knowledge-based system for the generation of internet forecasts is described.
• The system has been developed for Victoria.
• Forecasts generated include those for public, aviation, marine and media interests.
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Description of the System.Description of the System.
• At the core of the system is an algorithm, written in HTML (and incorporating some JavaScript).
• The algorithm combines statistical interpretation of NWP output with other knowledge.
• The statistical interpretation component includes identification of the synoptic type.
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Synoptic TypingSynoptic Typing
• The basis for the system is identification of the expected synoptic type.
• The direction, strength and curvature of the isobaric (surface) flow determine the type.
• These characteristics are determined from a grid of forecast pressure values.
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Generating the OutputGenerating the Output
• Data associated with the identified type are statistically analysed.
• In a Perfect Prog mode, statistical relationships so derived are used to generate forecasts.
• HTML Code (incorporating JavaScript) is generated.
• The Code is uploaded to a Web Site.
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Opening View.Opening View.
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Entering the DataEntering the Data
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Generating the Code.Generating the Code.
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The “Bank” of Experience• Ramage proposed an “iterative” approach to locking in
improvements in forecasting.
• This is, indeed, the approach adopted here.
• Thereby, the skill increases as new knowledge is incorporated.
• Hence, progress is made towards the realisation of Ramage’s dream.
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Multi-lingual FeatureMulti-lingual Feature
• An increasing component of the WEB is in languages other than English.
• Chinese may become the common language of the WEB.
• The system has a component that generates a forecast summary in Chinese.
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The Output GeneratedThe Output Generated
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Segment of the OutputSegment of the Output
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Sample of the Forecasts.Sample of the Forecasts.
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The Aviation Forecasts.The Aviation Forecasts.
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Verification of SystemVerification of System
• Five skill measures are used.
• These are MIN, MAX, QPF, Precip/No Precip (P/NP), & BRIER.
• Skill measures are positive for forecasts better than climatology.
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A Preliminary TrialA Preliminary Trial
• Conducted (last April) on an earlier (and much abbreviated) version of the system.
• Evaluation limited to one month, one location (Melbourne), and to day one.
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A Subsequent TrialA Subsequent Trial
• Conducted (last November).
• Evaluation extended to include days one to seven.
• Still only for one location.
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Combined Skill of Subsequent TrialCombined Skill of Subsequent Trial
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Skill of Subsequent Trial’sSkill of Subsequent Trial’sMin Temp ForecastsMin Temp Forecasts
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Skill of Subsequent Trial’sSkill of Subsequent Trial’sMax Temp ForecastsMax Temp Forecasts
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Skill of Subsequent Trial’sSkill of Subsequent Trial’sQuantitative Precipitation ForecastsQuantitative Precipitation Forecasts
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System PerformanceSystem Performance
• Skill Measures all show system forecasts better than climatology.
• They also are better than persistence.
• They are (on most measures) inferior to official forecasts, especially for days 1 and 2;
- with the notable exception of minimum temperature forecasts for days 3 to 7, inclusive.
• System forecasts would be expected to improve as new knowledge is incorporated.
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Future Plans
• Extensively verify the system, covering all current observing sites.
• Enhance the sophistication of the statistical analysis.
• Incorporate new forecaster knowledge.
• Extend the multi-lingual feature to Australian indigenous languages.