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Connecting User Needs with Weather Research and Forecasts

Rebecca E. Morss

National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder, Colorado, USA

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Overall Goals• Understand:

– Weather forecasting needs of current and potential users of forecasts

– How people do and could incorporate weather forecasts into decision-making

• Connect this understanding with weather research and forecasts:– Compare benefits of different forecast improvements– Work towards improving forecasts in ways that are likely to

greatly benefit society – And so on …

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Projects

• Assessing the needs of users of QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts)

• Use of weather information by QPF forecasters and users during PACJET-2001

• Influence of weather and climate variability on evaluations of flood risk

• Superstorm 1993: A case scenario approach for integrating meteorological and societal research

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Systematically, comprehensively assess the needs of users of QPF

• Improving QPF has been identified as a national (and international) priority

• QPF can be improved in a number of wayse.g., lead time, accuracy, spatial / temporal resolution,

deterministically or probabilistically

• Achieving different QPF improvements can require different research and operational efforts

Which QPF improvements should we invest in, to most benefit society?

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Assessing the needs of users of QPF

Focus for this pilot project:• Warm season (approx. May - September)• Lead time: minutes - days• Users: Colorado Front Range (including

Denver, Boulder) and surrounding areas

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To systematically investigate how QPFs are and could be used, across society:• Identify (all) major users of QPF• Review and synthesize relevant literature• Interview “stakeholders”• Survey selected user communities

Methodology

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Sectors of Potential QPF Users

• Flood / landslide warning, control, and response • Water supply and reservoir management• Hydropower generation and power plant cooling• Environmental quality• Agriculture• Livestock production• Recreation / leisure • Fire management

• Transportation• Construction• Mining• Public

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Literature Review• Purpose:

– Develop a baseline knowledge of precipitation impacts and QPF use in each sector

– Identify an appropriate mix of interviewees– Construct appropriate interview questions

• Includes:– Peer-reviewed literature (meteorology, hydrology, etc.) – Existing studies of use and value of weather and climate

information– Conference proceedings – Instructional materials – Overview documents – Web searches

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Stakeholder Interviews

• Producers of QPF e.g., U.S. National Weather Service forecasters

private sector forecasters

• Intermediariese.g., U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (River Sys & Met

group)agricultural extension services

• Users of QPF in each sectorindividuals, e.g., flood warning personnelgroup representatives, e.g., farming associations

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Stakeholder Interviews• Purpose:

– To develop a more complete, more detailed understanding of current and potential QPF use in each sector

– To test hypotheses and modify knowledge developed from the literature review and previous interviews

• Interviewees selected to represent a range of perspectives, rather than to obtain a statistically representative sample

– If necessary, follow up with a mail/e-mail survey• Conducted in this order (to the extent possible) to help identify

interviewees and refine questions for subsequent interviews

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Examples of possible uses of results• Develop user-relevant measures of forecast quality• Estimate costs of precipitation-related events to society• Estimate socioeconomic value of different forecasts• Compare costs and benefits of different forecasting system

improvements• Identify subsectors, impacts, event types, forecast types, etc. to

study in greater detail• Develop societally beneficial forecast products and decision

tools• Develop the research programs required to generate these

products and tools

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Projects

• Assessing the needs of users of QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts)

• Use of weather information by QPF forecasters and users during PACJET-2001

• Influence of weather and climate variability on evaluations of flood risk

• Superstorm 1993: A case scenario approach for integrating meteorological and societal research

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Use of weather information by QPF forecasters and users during PACJET-2001

• Pacific Land-falling Jets Experiment, Jan – Feb 2001• Goal: to improve short-term winter weather forecasts on

the U.S. West Coast, with an emphasis on QPF

• To explore use of PACJET-related observations and forecasts:– Interviewed and observed National Weather Service

meteorological and hydrological forecasters– Interviewed several emergency managers and water

resource personnel in California• Results: Maps of use of information in decision-making

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Influence of weather and climate variability on evaluations of flood risk

• Evaluations of flood risk (e.g., floodplain maps) are based on estimates of future precipitation and flood discharge

• In mountainous regions (e.g., Colorado Front Range), such estimates are especially uncertain because:– Precipitation tends to vary significantly (in space & time)– Watersheds tend to be small and to respond rapidly– Available data is insufficient to account for this variability

• Goal: To provide weather / climate information and analysis techniques that are useful in flood risk evaluations

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• On 12-15 March 1993, a major winter storm affected 26 eastern U.S. states, Cuba, and eastern Canada

• “Superstorm 1993” caused, in U.S.: approximately 270 deaths, over $2 billion in property damage, power outages, major transportation delays, economic disruption, etc.

However, many of these impacts are “unavoidable”

• Using Superstorm 1993 as a focusing case, explore – Potential for improving different types of forecasts of

such storms (e.g., increase lead time, ensemble forecasts) – Potential value of such improvements to society

Superstorm 1993: Integrating meteorological and societal research

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