ndpa overview slides...2020/09/04  · ndpa overview slides september 4, 2020 justin j kringstad...

NDPA Overview Slides

September 4, 2020

Justin J KringstadGeological Engineer

Director

North Dakota Pipeline Authority

2

Bakken & Three Forks Formations

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 2

Bakken Formation Three Forks Formation

3

Monthly Oil & Gas Production Change

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 3

4

Holding Aug. 2020 Oil Constant at 1.23MMBPD (est.)Answering the question, “How many well completions to hold oil production flat?”

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 4

Below Curve: Oil Production Dropping

Above Curve: Oil Production Increasing

5

Base Decline Challenges

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 5

6

March to June 75+% M-O-M Oil Drop

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 6(Non-Confidential Wells Only)

7JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 7(Non-Confidential Wells Only)

May & June ComparisonJune 2020May 2020

8

Vintage Year of Shut-In Wells – June 2020

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 8(Non-Confidential Wells Only)

9

Wells Most Likely to Return Quickly? (May)

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 9

1,881 Wells (28%)

WOR: 2 or Lower

BOPD: 50+

Total: 356,816 BOPD (70+%)

Shut-In

10

GOR Decrease From Returning Curtailed Wells

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 10(Non-Confidential Wells Only)

Well Selection Criteria

Production Days in May: 0-1 Days

March Oil Production: >1 BOPD

June Oil Production: >1 BOPD

Pool: Bakken/Three Forks/Sanish

11

EIA Price Deck (Near Term)

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 11

12

Shut-In Assumptions: EIA Price Deck

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 12

13

ND Oil Production: EIA Price Deck (Near Term)

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 13

14

ND Completions: EIA Price Deck (Near Term)

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 14

Base & High Cases

Low Case

15

ND Oil Production: EIA Price Deck

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 15

16

Monthly Completion Scenarios: Crude Oil

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 16

17

Monthly Completion Scenarios: Wellhead Gas

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 17

19 19

Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPD

2121JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline AuthorityJJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 21

Showing DAPL Outage

Unlikely Near Term

Scenario with Recent

Court Decisions

22

NDPA Production Forecast and Rail Transportation

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 22

NDPA Base Case Oil Production Forecast (Green)

Pipeline Capacity Shortfall (Grey):

“Need” to Rail

Rail History (Red):

Exceeds “Need” - Delta Considered “Elective/Market Driven”

Assu

mes D

AP

L R

etu

rns t

o S

erv

ice S

ep

2021

Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation

23

23JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 23

24

Estimated ND Rail Export Volumes

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 24

Rail Destinations Market Share (May 2020)

25

Data for Rail Destination Market Share Provided by the US Energy Information Administration

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 25

26 26

27

Natural Gas Update

Production

• Technology

• Markets

Gathering

• Capacity

• Connections

Processing

• Capacity

• Location

Transmission

• Dry Gas

• Natural Gas Liquids

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 27

28

ND Gas Production: EIA Price Deck

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 28

29

Natural Gas Update

Production

• Technology

• Markets

Gathering

• Capacity

• Connections

Processing

• Capacity

• Location

Transmission

• Dry Gas

• Natural Gas Liquids

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 29

30JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Solving the Flaring Challenge

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 30

31

Natural Gas Update

Production

• Technology

• Markets

Gathering

• Capacity

• Connections

Processing

• Capacity

• Location

Transmission

• Dry Gas

• Natural Gas Liquids

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 31

32JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Solving the Flaring ChallengeAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 32

33JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Solving the Flaring ChallengeAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 33

34JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Gas Processing Capacity & Future OutlookAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 34

Historical

Historical

Expected

Expected

35JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Gas Processing Capacity & Spare Capacity

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 35

Historical Expected

36JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Gas Processing Capacity & Spare Capacity

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 36

Historical Expected

9%

24%

37JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Gas Processing Capacity & Spare Capacity

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 37

Historical Expected

9%

38

Natural Gas Update

Production

• Technology

• Markets

Gathering

• Capacity

• Connections

Processing

• Capacity

• Location

Transmission

• Dry Gas

• Natural Gas Liquids

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 38

Major Gas Pipeline and

Processing Infrastructure

WBI Transmission

Whiting

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline AuthorityJJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 39

Bakken Natural Gas Infrastructure

4040JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 40

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 41

Northern Border Pipeline

*Data Source: Northern Border

Northern Border BTU at Glen Ullin, ND

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 42*Data Source: Northern Border

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 43

NB Pipeline Interconnects With Known BTU Limits

NGPL: 1,065Midwestern:

1,100

Vector: 1,100Guardian: 1,100

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 44

NB Pipeline Interconnects With BTU Limits > 1,100

NNG:

No Limit

ANR: 1,200

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 45

NB Pipeline Interconnects With Ability to Add Limits

Horizon:

Ability to

Post Upper

Limit

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 46

Northern Border – BTU Calculations*

*Includes Updated Tariff Timeline to 1,100

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 47

Northern Border – BTU Calculations*

*Assumes Equivalent Net Replacement of 1,035 Canadian Gas

Does Not Include Market Based

Pairing Expenses

Est. Annual

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 48

BTU Calculations to Meet Proposed 1,100 BTU Spec.Approximate Q1-20 BTU Breakdown Demo Pairing Exercise to Meet 1,100 or Less*

*Exact plant specifications are not publicly available and many assumptions

needed to be made for demo pairing. Table may contain errors.

Regional NGL Infrastructure

Kinder

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 49

Ma

rath

on

Pe

tro

leu

m

NGL Pipeline Takeaway Options

50

5050JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 50

Justin J. Kringstad, DirectorNorth Dakota Pipeline Authority

600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405Bismarck, ND 58505-0840

Phone: (701)220-6227Fax: (701)328-2820

E-mail: jjkringstad@ndpipelines.com

Websites: www.pipeline.nd.gov

www.northdakotapipelines.com

Contact Information

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 51