the arab spring and climate change
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ANUPAM CHAKRAVARTYCCTP-817
The Arab Spring and Climate Change
The Arab Spring
Source: The Economist. http://wacsfschools.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/arab-spring.gif
Climate and Security Correlations
Center for American Progress Series Anne-Marie Slaughter (Princeton University) Troy Sternberg (Oxford University) Sarah Johnstone and Jeffrey Mazo (International
Institute for Strategic Studies) Francesco Femia and Caitlin Werrell (Center for
Climate and Security) Michael Werz and Max Hoffman (Center for American
Progress) David Michel and Mona Yacoubian (Stimson Center)
New York Times Columnist Thomas Friedman
Climate and Security Correlations
ECONOMIC POLITICALDEMOGRAPHIC
POPULARUPRISINGS
CLIMATE CHANGE
Economics: Climate & Scarcity
SUPPLY SIDESevere Drought Conditions in
China(World’s Largest Wheat Producer)
Drought, Heat Waves & Fires in Russia & Ukraine
Cold in CanadaExcessive Rain
in Australia
Economics: Climate & Scarcity
DEMAND SIDEEgypt:
Bread provides one-third of the caloric intake 38% of income is spent on food
“The doubling of global wheat prices — from $157/metric ton in June 2010 to $326/metric ton in February 2011 — thus significantly impacted the country’s food supply and availability.” (Sternberg)
Economics: Climate & Scarcity
Source: http://necsi.edu/research/social/food_crises.pdf
Demographics: Climate & Population
Drought and desertification in the Sahel undermined agricultural and pastoral livelihoods Syria: 30% workforce employed in the
agricultural sector (2002) 15% workforce employed in the agricultural sector (2010)
Displaces rural communities; causes major urban migration Syria: 50,000 families migrated from
rural areas to cities in 2010. Tunisia: Rural population declines in
2010 while overall population increases.
Demographics: Climate & Population
Further stressing water availability Yemen: Clashes over illegal wells
Exacerbating urban unemployment “Angry, poor, ‘bored’ young men”
Stressing city infrastructure & servicesBrings diverse tribal, ethnic and religious
groups together in cities
Political: Climate & Governance Crises
International dependence on oil Dictatorships consolidating wealth in oil revenues Expanding Qatari and Saudi Arabian geopolitical
influence
Scarcity strains regionally shared water resources Libya: 93% arid; the aquifers it is draining for Qaddafi’s
water project are shared by Egypt, Chad, and Sudan Syria: On-going water disputes with Turkey
Corrupt and inefficient regimes are exposed as incapable of managing stress
How Does Climate Change Influence Conflict?
“Globalization of Hazard” Increases global-local linkages
Localized climate events in China Global market trends and “agflation” Local food shortages in Egypt
“Threat Multiplier” Effect Exposes fragile political systems to more, multifaceted
weaknesses
“Eroding the Social Contract”
Opportunities for Foreign Policy
Encourage regional cooperation & coordination on sustainability projects Build trust for fledgling & established governments Improve resource management infrastructure and
shares best practices Create shared value
Engage with at-risk groups: human-interest diplomacy Provide opportunities for those most affected by
demographic shifts and limited access to service.
Works Cited
Werell, Caitlin E., Francesco Femia, and Anne-Marie Slaughter, eds. "The Arab Spring and Climate Change." Center for American Progress (2013). 28 Feb. 2013. <http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/ClimateChangeArabSpring.pdf>
Friedman, Thomas. “The Scary Hidden Stressor.” The New York Times (2013). 2 Mar. 2013. <http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/03/opinion/sunday/friedman-the-scary-hidden-stressor.html>
Lagi, Marco, Karla Z. Bertrand, and Yaneer Bar-Yam. "The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East.” New England Complex Systems Institute, 28 Sept. 2011. <http://necsi.edu/research/social/food_crises.pdf>.
Aziza, Tareq. “On the Oil that Burned the Arab Spring.” Al-Akhbar English. 16 Nov. 2012. <http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/13824>
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