What if? Agro-fuel scenarioCase of fallow land/set aside 1990-2000 at

risk of re-intensificationVersion 0.01 _ zoom on Czech Republic

What if? modelling with CLC/LEAC/CORILIS Attempt at mapping areas prone to agriculture

intensification

Corilis is the computation in a regular grid of CLC values in and in the neighbourhood of each cell (in the application: radius of 5km) Ref.: EEA 2006, Land accounts for Europe 1990-2000

B A

Areas prone to agriculture intensification driven by the agro-fuel demand: assumptions• minimum of 20% of agriculture potential (~UAA) mountains, urban areas, large forests… are excluded.

• higher potential for conversion when the 2 agriculture types are balanced (very intensive areas will not intensify any more, very extensive areas result probably from relief and climate conditions which will restrict intensification)

For each grid cell of 1km², the formula is therefore:

Conversion Potential =

[Potential (A-B)]2 * Potential (A+B), when Potential (A+B) > 20. Value normalised to 0 to 100

√

Case of fallow land/set aside 1990-2000 at risk of re-intensification, 1st test maps:

• Areas prone to intensification (in GREY) AND fallow land set aside mapped from land cover flow 1990-2000 LEAC lcf41 (in GREEN).

• Fallow land/set aside at risk of re-intensification are in RED.

• (RED = GREY+GREEN)• At this stage, this is a distribution map, not yet a

statistical quantification

Areas prone to intensification (in GREY) AND fallow land set aside mapped from land cover flow 1990-2000 LEAC lcf41 (in GREEN).

N2K1m_LAEAt

Set aside...at risk

Set aside fallow land and pasture

Potential agro 1

Potential agro 2

Potential agro 3

Potential agro 4

Potential agro 5

Background

Fallow land/set aside at risk of re-intensification are in RED. (RED = GREY+GREEN)

N2K1m_LAEAt

Set aside...at risk

Set aside fallow land and pasture

Potential agro 1

Potential agro 2

Potential agro 3

Potential agro 4

Potential agro 5

Background

Potential impact on Natura2000 sites

N2K1m_LAEAt

Set aside...at risk

Set aside fallow land and pasture

Potential agro 1

Potential agro 2

Potential agro 3

Potential agro 4

Potential agro 5

Background

The European view