BGRI Global Rust Monitoring: Challenges and Opportunities for Stripe Rust

Dave Hodson, AGP Division, FAO

International Stripe Rust Symposium, ICARDA, Aleppo, 18-20th April 2011

Context: Wheat is Important!

2

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

% Daily Calories from Wheat

Source: H-J, Braun, CIMMYT

• World’s most widely grown crop

• 200+ Million ha• 600+ Million tons /

yr

Ug99 – A call to action

● 1999: Confirmation of loss of important Sr genes (Sr31, Sr38 +++) “Ug99” [TTKSK]

● 2005: “Sounding the Alarm on Global Stem Rust”. Formation of the Borlaug Global Rust Initiative

● ?’s – Susceptibility? Where next? How soon?....

● Clear need for effective monitoring & surveillance

●1998: Anomalous results from a nursery in Uganda

Response to Ug99: Progress to date

• Global awareness on vulnerability of wheat crop (rusts in general)

• Monitoring system in place – current status + monitoring pathogen populations

• Information systems / tools in place• International networks emerging, increased national

capacity for surveillance and monitoring• Resistant varieties in seed chain

Spatial Database

Secondary DataClimate, crops etc

International Rust Monitoring: Stem Rust Model

Trap Nurseries / plots

Country Reports

To Country

• Relies on national surveillance• Added value• Global Overview Field survey

+Samples

RustSPORE Web portal

RustMapper

Full GIS

Winds

Survey / Sampling – Tools & Protocols

• BGRI protocols manual– Field survey forms– GPS protocols– Sampling protocols– “Quick Sets” – race

analysis• Extensive in-country

field trainingR. Park (Uni. Sydney)K. Nazari (ICARDA)A. Yahyaoui (ICARDA)Z. Pretorius (Uni. Free State)K. Cressman (FAO)T. Fetch (Ag. Agri-Food Canada)Yue Jin (USDA-ARS)D. Hodson (CIMMYT)

Photo: A. Yahyaoui (ICARDA)

Continued Expansion of Surveillance Network

2005c. 10 stationsreporting Ug99

Rapidly increasing flow of field data

Improved knowledge on annual incidence & severity

Multi-year data: Now starting to detect changes

2009 2010

2009

2009

1998/92001

2003

2006

2007

? ?

Movements

PossibleSpread

THE SPREAD OF WHEAT STEM RUST UG99 LINEAGE

FAO, Aug 2010

Pathogen Monitoring: Ug99 Lineage Variants detected

& tracked Expansion in

range (& number of variants)– 7 variants– Sr31+Sr24 vir

now spreading Progress: Global

summary, increasing national capacity

Constraints: Year-round analysis, sample viability, analytical capacity

Data sources: AAFC, Canada; Uni Free State, South Africa; USDA-ARS Cereals Disease Lab,

USA

Data Management: Wheat Rust Toolbox

Crop Problem Dbase(survey, pathotypes, [Trap nursery, Molecular] )

User Management

Quality control/publish

Data Export / Exchange

On-line Data Entry

External Applicationse.g., RustMapper

Outputs:• Survey Mapping• Pathotypes, +...

NB: Generic - Applicable to all rusts

Delivering Information: Rust SPORE

• Dedicated web portal: Rust SPORE• http://www.fao.org/agriculture/crops/rust/stem/en/

– Updates– Tracking– Country Surveys– Pathotypes

• 3 UN languages (English, Arabic, Russian)• Centralized Dbase (Aarhus), embedded applications (Aarhus +

CIMMYT)• Target: Scientists, Decision-makers, Public Awareness

Status SummaryComponent Stem Rust

Coordinated Global Response

ü

Clearly defined target ü

Information Systems + Data Management

ü

Surveillance Networks + Tools

ü

Pathotyping Capacity ü(with limitations)

Ahead of Disease progress? ü

Stripe Rust

x

?

X (not global)

Spillover from stem rust (timeliness?)

ü(GRRC, some limitations)

x

Stripe Rust Severity:2010 Surveys

Incomplete data, but Stripe Rust widespread!

Stripe Rust Summary- 2010

14

Bulgaria: “First outbreaks in 20 years”

Uzbekistan: worse than 2009 – all varieties susceptible. extensive chemical control (x3 sprays)

Syria: Estimates of 300,00 ha affected.USDA: Possible 1.25M ton losses

Iraq: Estimated 10-15% yieldlosses in north

Turkey: Severe in south-east. USDA estimating1M ton losses

India: Unfavourable environmental conditions (same in Pakistan). No losses

Iran: Effective control

Ethiopia: Over 400,000 ha affected. Losses??

Stripe Rust 2011: Hitting the headlines

China, 31st March 2011

India, 30th March 2011

Turkey, 10th April 2011

16

Current Threat: Stripe Rust

• The most damaging wheat disease on the global scale

• 2 New highly aggressive strains + rapid global spread (Hovmøller et al., 2008)

• Breakdown of a key resistance gene (Yr27) in CWANA – (prior warnings: Singh & Huerta-Espino,

2001; McDonald et al., 2004)• Mega cultivars withYr27 are currently

planted on more than 15 million hectares (North Africa to South Asia)

Yr27 Virulence?

1995

1998

2002 2001

By 2009 to 2010: Yr27 virulence widespread

All same pathotypes? All aggressive strains? Movements vs

independent events?

GRRC, ICARDA rust facility + others all playing a vital role

Challenges• Disease widespread and dispersed• An uncertain target (Yr27 vir, Aggressive

pathotypes...)?• Movements?

– pathogen present (throughout?)– conducive environment main driver of outbreaks?

• High inoculum levels: very high risk of accidental human-borne movements

• Role of changing climate?• Sampling

– over-capacity in terms of collection– under capacity in terms of analysis

• Rapid detection + reporting + good contingency plan required for targeted chemical control on initial outbreaks

Opportunities

• Foundation / lessons learned from stem rust– data management + information systems– surveillance networks– global overview

• Cultivar change – promotion of durable resistant cultivars (other rusts + traits as well)

Issues to be addressed

• Rapid detection + reporting: – sms networks, in-country systems, information flows

• Environmental suitability– improved early warning of disease, models

• Pathotyping capacity– international + in-country

• Efficient promotion and deployment of durable resistance

• Resourcing

• Many pieces of the puzzle are there (in this room!)– CG Centers (CIMMYT, ICARDA)– Global Rust Reference Centre, Aarhus– Advanced Rust Research Labs– National Programs– International Agencies– Donors– International Surveillance Networks– Information Systems + Data Management Tools

Let’s Combine Our Efforts!

Acknowledgements

• All contributing national partners• PBI, University of Sydney• ICARDA• CIMMYT• AAFC, Canada• CDL, Minnesota, USA• University of the Free State, South Africa• Aarhus University, Denmark