business cycle by prof. rhoneil tabora, university of makati

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    Business Cycle: Unemploymentand Inflation

    TIME

    B

    U

    S

    I

    N

    E

    S

    S

    A

    C

    T

    S.

    GROWTH

    PROSPERITY

    DEPRESSION

    BUSINESS CYCLE REFERS TO FLUCTUATIONS IN ECONOMY. ALSO KNOWN AS THE PEAKS AND VALLEYS OF THE ECONOMY

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    Theories of Business Cycle

    1.Exogenous theory Forces outside theeconomic system createthe business cycle.Examples are politicaldevelopments, naturaldisasters, wars etc.2.Endogenous theory The forces within theeconomic system causedthe fluctuations in theeconomy like accelerators,multipliers, innovations ormonetary policies.

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    Phases of the Cycle

    1. Prosperity

    the peak ofthe business cycle, thereis full employment and thenational output is at full

    capacity or close to it.Price level tends toincrease due to increasingdemand for goods and

    services. Output can nolonger be increasedbecause productiveresources are at fullcapacity or fully employed.

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    Phases of the Cycle2. Recession Both productionand employment fall. The pricelevel is likely to decrease only ifrecession is of longer duration.3. Depression both production

    and employment are at theirlowest level. This is the valley ofthe business cycle. Under suchcondition no privatebusinessman is willing to investbecause demand for goods andservices is also at its lowestpoint.

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    Unemployment

    It simply means that somepeople are out of jobs.Unemployment is a seriousand deep-seated problem

    which affect both rich andpoor countries.Some Causes:1.Changes in technology2. Renovations3. Business Cycles4. Changes in seasons

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    Effects of the Business Cycle

    3. In the same manner,industries whichproduced consumerdurables like cars and

    appliances are adverselyaffected during badeconomic times.Consumers tend to be

    economical. Instead ofbuying new ones, theywould just repair their oldand existing durables.

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    Effects of the Business Cycle

    2. As a resultexpenditures on capitalgoods greatly declines.Hence, the variousindustries whichmanufacture suchcapital goods sufferfrom low or negativesales. Many of theiremployees have to belaid off due to atremendous fall inproduction.

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    Effects of Business Cycle

    3. However, in the caseof basic products like,food, water, electricityetc. they are lesssensitive torecession. Thesethings are vital to the

    consumers and itspurchases cannotwait for a long time.

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    Types of Unemployment

    1. Frictional this is causedby interruptions in productionfor technical reasons, orwhen workers are temporarilylaid off due to renovationworks.

    2. Structural a change intechnology renders the skillsand talents of some workersobsolete. For example theuse of modern computers inoffice reduce the number ofworkers

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    Types of Unemployment

    3. Cyclical this is caused bythe fall of business activitiesin the economyWhen aggregate demanddecreases, productionsubsequently declines. Someworkers have to be laid off.4. Seasonal change inseasons leads tounemployment. During slackperiods, like in tourismindustry many workers arelaid off

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    Effects of Unemployment

    1. The productiveresources of theeconomy are not fullyused, this means less

    goods and services areproduced.2. It is a loss of income on

    the part of individualsand would deprive himof the chance toimprove his economicconditions.

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    Effects of Unemployment

    3. On the part of thecountry, unemploymentmeans a decline innational income or grossnational product and a fallon government revenues.

    4. The government has toput aside some of itsimportant projects due tolack of funds.

    5. Unemployment leads tothe commission of socialcrimes

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    Full Employment

    When there is available job for every personwho is willing and ableto work it is fullemployment. It doesnot mean thatunemployment is zero.

    If about 6% of the laborforce is unemployed, itis still considered full

    employment

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    Reasons fo unemployment in theperiod of full employment

    1.Some people are sick andtherefore are unable to work.

    As long as they have chance

    to recover and regain their jobs they are considered partof the labor force.2.Many workers left their jobsbecause of dissatisfaction.They hope to findemployment at better terms inthe future.

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    3. In rich countries, minimumwage is so high. In this regardemployers refused to hireworkers.4. Because of old age or otherpersonal handicaps, somegroups stand at the borderlinebetween employability andunemployability. As long astheir status has not beensettled definitely, they are stillconsidered part of the laborforce.

    Reasons for unemployment in theperiod of full employment

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    Theories of Employment

    1. Classical theory

    states that employmentincreases at lowerwages. Employers arewilling to hire moreworkers at lower wagesbecause it is more

    profitable, because thismeans that the cost ofproduction is lower and

    more profits for the firm.

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    2. Keynesian theory thisis a modern theory ofemployment statesthat employment isdetermined by aggregateor total demand forgoods and services.When purchases ofgoods and services

    increase, production alsoincreases and moreworkers are needed toproduce more goods and

    services.

    Theories of Employment

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    1. Shorter work week Areduction of work weekfrom 44 to 40 hourswould increase thenumber of workers. Ifworking hours areshortened, it is believedthat more workers willbe hired. Other

    companies scheduledtheir workers on a three-day-a-week basis ratherthan lay off a large

    number of workers.

    Full Employment Policies

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    Full Employment Policies

    2. Postponement oftechnologicaladvancement This isanother way ofincreasing demand forworkers. Instead ofusing moderntechnology, which couldrender workers out of

    jobs, industries golabor-intensive to reducetheir unempoymentproblems.

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    3. Public Investments The governmentshould utilize itsresources to increase

    demand for goodsand services.Government canengaged in massivepublic works to createemployment andincome for thepeople.

    Full Employment Policies

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    There is inflation whenthere is a risinggeneral level of prices.It does not necessarily

    mean that all pricesare increasing. In factsome remain constantor even fall. Other

    prices rise verysuddenly. In shortthere is no evenescalation of prices.

    Inflation

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    Inflation Inflation adversely

    affects many sectors ofthe economy, particularlythe fixed-income groups.

    Inflation also aggravatesunemployment problem.Demand for goods andservices decreases

    when prices increase.This cuts downproduction and thereforecauses reduction ofworkers.

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    Inflation Unfortunately inflation

    causes more inflation.When prices keep onincreasing, people areinclined to spend theirmoney before it lossesits value.Clearly inflationencourages moreconsumption and less

    savings. However thisdoes not stimulatefurther invesmentbecause the cost of

    production is also high.

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    Types of Inflation

    1. Demand-pull inflation This type of inflationoccurs when demand forgoods and services

    exceeds supply. When allthe productive resourcesare fully employed anadditional demand for

    goods and servicesincreases prices. It is nolonger possible to expandoutput or supply.

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    Types of Inflation Another cause of demand-pullinflation is the excess moneysupply. When money supplyincreases without correspondingincrease in production of goods

    and services prices increase.Based on the equation ofexchange, the value of goodsand services in the economy isequivalent to the quantity ofmoney in circulation. Moremoney supply is created whengovernment prints money orwhen foreign loans are not usedfor production.

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    Types of Inflation3. Structural inflation thisview explain the inability ofsome sectors of oureconomy to respondimmediately for demands forgoods and services. Whensupply cannot meet demand,prices increase. Examplesare: When goods cannot beproduced because there areno available dollars forimporting raw materials ofsuch products or, theinadequate transportationfacilities in some parts of the

    country.

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    Economic Reforms to ReduceInflation and Unemployment

    1. To increase the production of short-gestationcrops and other small-scale industries. Theseproduce goods within a few months. Thusincomes are immediately generated.

    2. To reduce over supply of money, the BangkoSentral has actively engaged in the openmarket sale of Treasury and Bangko Sentralbills.

    3. To encourage more foreign investments to

    accelerate economic recovery.

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    Economic Reforms to ReduceInflation and Unemployment

    4. To reduce government expenditures through moreeconomical resources, such as the shutdown of losinggovernment corporations, unnecessary travel abroad

    of top government officials etc.5. To concentrate more on the development of more

    agricultural projects which are less expensive andhave shorter gestation than industrial project.

    6. To transform the people into more self-reliant andproductive groups. They have been encouraged toengage in backyard gardening, poultry, piggery and

    th i g ti g j t

    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