Climate change adaptation and mitigation potentials and strategies-How CA can help?

Global Conservation Agriculture Program (GCAP)International Maize & Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT)

www.cimmyt.org

ML JatM.Jat@cgiar.org

• Global cropland increased by 27%

• Population Increased by 111%

• Food Production Increased by 164%

• Crop Yields Increased by 139%

Agricultural Achievements Since Green Revolution

Climate Change

Impact on Agriculture

Production: Reduced crop yield, particularly in south

Asia.

Soil: Drier, reduced productivity.

Irrigation: Increased demand, reduced supply.

Pests: Increased ranges and populations.

Livestock: Increased diseases and heat stress.

Fishery: Affected abundance and spawning.

Economic impact: Reduced agricultural output

A look at the past: 120 year analysis

Maximum temperatures• 0.71 oC/100 years

• Past 40 years - 0.17/10 years

Minimum temperature • 0.27 oC/100 years

• Past 40 years - 0.29/10 years

Rainfall (1871-2009 period)• 25 deficit and 20 excess monsoon rainfall years

• 1961-2009 : 13 deficit and 6 excess MRF years

IITM, 2010

Mean temperature rise projections

Global Indian region

Source: IPCC, 2004; Krishna Kumar, 2009

Climate Change Impact on water

• Pre-sowing rainfall has declined in last few years

• Ground water tables are declining (33 cm/yr, http://www.nasa.gov)

• Climate change will most likely alter the monsoon cycle and intensity of rainfall all over India (IPCC, IMD, 2007)

• This will have an impact on the irrigation water availability and agriculture.

Groundwater Changes in India During 2002-08, with losses in red and gains in

blue

Source: Samra (2010) Source: NASA (2009)

Climate Change Impact : Water (contd)

• Gross per capita water availability in India will decline from about 1,820 m3/yr in 2001 to as low as about 1,140 m3/yr in 2050 (IPCC 2007)

• Intense rain occurring over fewer days could imply increased frequency of floods during monsoon and reduced groundwater recharge due to higher runoff (IPCC 2007)

• Increase in rainfall may benefit cropping in Central Zone only with appropriate technologies

• Flows in many perennial seepage rivers ( eg. Narmada) in central and Deccan Plateau will depend on in situ rainwater conservation

Year

2000 2050G

ros

s p

er

ca

pit

a w

ate

r a

vail

ab

ilit

y i

n I

nd

ia (

m3/y

r)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Water Availability, India

Temperature & Humidity

• Avg. temp. in India has increased by +0.5oC over last 100 years (IPCC 2007)

• Projected temperature increase of +2 to +4oC by 2050 (IMD, IPCC 2007)

• Increased relative humidity +5% per decade. May impact disease/pest outbreak scenarios

IPCC 2007

Past & Future Number of Heat Days, India

Future Temperature Range and Heat Events

• Future temperature range will be above highest temperature in past (Battisti and Naylor 2009)

• Number of heat events will double in next 50 years (IPCC 2007)

• 6.6 MT grain yield decline for each 1oC mean temperature

increase during growing season ($1.3 Bn. @ $200/MT) (Aggarwal 2003)

• Rainfed areas must be made more productive for additional food through reduced resource degradation .

• Disruptions to timely planting; impact of heat shocks; could more than double these losses

Changes in Wheat Growing EnvironmentChanges in Wheat Growing Environment

Current

Future (2050)

High-yield environment

Low yielding environment

Maps: Ortiz et al (2008)

• Substantial loss of high-yield environments

• Reduced grain quality

• New disease & pest threats

• Yield stimulus from elevated CO2

• Potential yield reductions from dimming and ozone

• Additional food must be grown in east or rainfedareas

Climate Change: Agriculture Productivity Impact (2003-2080)

Source: Cline (2007)

• Increase in CO2 increases yields of rice, wheat, legumes and oilseeds

• A 1oC increase in temperature may reduce yields of wheat, soybean, mustard, groundnut, and potato by 3-7%.

• Productivity of most crops to decrease marginally by 2020 but by 10- 40% by 2100. Increased droughts, floods and heat waves will increase production variability

• Length of growing period in rainfed areas is likely to reduce

• Improvement in yields of chickpea, rabi maize, sorghum and millets.

Climate Change and Crop Productivity

Adaptation Strategies

• New genotypes

• New land use systems- rotations, BMPs including CA

• Value-added weather management services

• Integrated study of ‘climate change triangle’ and ‘disease triangle’, especially in relation to viruses and their vectors

• Documentation of indigenous traditional knowledge (ITK) and exploring opportunities for its utilization

A. Reducing Emissions

• Minimizing soil erosion risks

• Eliminating biomass burning

• Improving input use efficiency (e.g., fertilizers, energy, water,

pesticides)

Conservation Agriculture holds the key

B. Sequestering Emissions

Mitigation Strategies

Sequestration strategies

Sink and Sequester Enhancements• Carbon Sequestration in Soils• Changes in Land Use and Management: higher biomass,

reduce erosion

Emission Reductions• N20 reduction by better management of Nitrogenous fertilizer• CH4 reduction from rice fields and livestock• CO2 reduction by reducing fossil fuel, tillage operations

Avoid Emission• Prevent deforestation• Substitution of biomass based energy for fossil fuel energy

Conservation Agriculture holds the key

1. World 600 – 1200

2. USA 144 – 432

3. India 40 – 50

4. Iceland 1.2 – 1.6

5. Brazil 40 – 60

6. W. Europe 70 – 190

7. China 126 – 364

Region Potential Tg C/yr

Estimates of Global and Regional Potential of Soil C Sequestration

Source: R. Lal

C Sequestration Potential of CA

Emissions of CO2 in agriculture can be decreased by reducing tillage & maintaining crop residues on the soil surface that leads to C sequestration in the soil

----(Reicosky, 2001)

Of the total C sequestration potential of 40-50 TgC/yr, the soil C sequestration potential is 12-17 TgC/yr in Indian soils

---- (Lal, 2004)

In general, soil C sequestration during 1st decade of adoption of CA practices is 1.8 t CO2 ha

-1 yr-1

---- (Vlek & Tamene, 2009)

Practice Tons CO2

equiv/ha/yr

Improved agronomy 0.98

Nutrient management 0.62

Tillage / residue management

0.72

Rice management 0.62

Agroforestry 0.72

Land restoration 3.45

Conservation set-asides 5.36

Source: P Smith et al (2007)

Carbon potential of conservation agriculture practices

Better tillage and Better tillage and

residue mgt can residue mgt can

reduce transpiration, reduce transpiration,

and also sequester and also sequester

carboncarbon

Incentives are Incentives are

required to assist in required to assist in

the transition to the transition to

sustainable land sustainable land

management management

practices practices

Recommended Management Practices (RMPs) and Soil Carbon

Recommended practices C sequestration potential

(Mg C/ha/yr)

Conservation tillage 0.10-0.40

Winter cover crop 0.05-0.20

Soil fertility management 0.05-0.10

Elimination of summer fallow 0.05-0.20

Forages based rotation 0.05-0.20

Use of improved varieties 0.05-0.10

Organic amendments 0.20-0.30

Water table management/ irrigation 0.05-0.10

Source: Lal et al., (1998)

Long-term NT and Cropping systems Effect on TOC Concentration at 0 ± 30 cm depth of a sandy

clay loam Acrisol in southern Brazil

Source: Bayer et al (2000)

O/M: oat/maize

O+V/M+C: oat +

common

vetch/ maize+

cowpea

CO2 emissions under traditional practices and conservation agriculture in maize and wheat

Source: Ken Sayre & Bram Govaerts , CIMMYT

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

40% 60% 80% 100%

WHC

CT NT

CO2 emissions in NT and CT in maize-wheat rotation at different soil moisture regimes

CO

2 emission (mg C kg-1soil day-1

Source: Zuniga et al (2009)

Carbon input, output and sustainability index in Rice-wheat cropping system

Raj Kumar Jat-CIMMYT

Tillage Maize-wheat system

Maize Wheat MWCS

Productivity (t/ha)

CA 4.4a 4.4a 8.8a

Conventional 3.7b 3.9b 7.6b

Carbon Sustainability

Index (CSI)

CA 22.2a 10.3a 16.2a

Conventional 13.4b 10.0a 11.7b

Productivity & CSI of MWCS:CA v/s Conventional Tillage

Raj Kumar Jat-CIMMYT

o Higher GWP in the conventional system was due to more fuel use for tillage, water pumping and more methane emission in submerged condition.

o At the current price of C credit (US$ 30 Mg-1 CO2) double no till system fetches an additional income of US$ 24 ha-1 compared to the conventional rice-wheat system.

1697

1514

1742

2400

1616

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

CTPR-CW UTPR-ZTW BTPR-Bed DSR-ZTW ZT TPR-ZTW

Co2 (kg/ha)

CTPR-CW UTPR-ZTW BTPR-Bed DSR-ZTW ZT TPR-ZTW

Simulated global warming potential

Yash Saharawat

Impacts of climate change-Wheat

Agarwal et al 2010

March 2004, Indo–Gangeticplains

•Temperatures 3-6ºC higher than normal•~1ºC/ day over the crop season. •wheat matured earlier by 10-20 days•production dropped by >4 m tonnes in the country(Aggarwal, 2008). +2 oC

>20% loss

Lobell et al, 2012

Climatic Variability: Wheat Productivity in NWGP

Source: YS Saharawat (2011), Per Communication

What is the magnitude of heat tolerance we are looking for?G

rain

yie

ld (

q/h

a)

TS: Timely Sown

(Early November)

LS: Late Sown

(Early December)

Difference (Normal–High Temp Environment)= 1.0 t/ha

Source: Rane, 2012

Polynomial relationship between sowing time and GY of wheat in EGP (ZT cases, n = 704)

Source: Synthesized from CSISA-EUP hub data (2010-11)

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

17.0

19.0

21.0

10

DAS

17

DAS

22

DAS

27

DAS

32

DAS

37

DAS

45

DAS

53

DAS

58

DAS

63

DAS

70

DAS

110

DAS

116

DAS

124

DAS

136

DAS

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0NT + R (Morning) NT (Morning)

NT + R (Evening)) NT (Evening)

-7.5

-6.5

-5.5

-4.5

-3.5

-2.5

-1.5

-0.5

0.5

110 111 114 115 116 120 121 122 128 130 131 132 135 138 141 143 148 150 151 153

Days after sowing

Te

mp

era

ture

dif

fere

nc

e (

oC

)

Residue retained Residue removed

Terminal heat

Soil Temperature

Canopy Temperature

CA helps mitigate climatic variability: Example of wheat in North-West India

Tillage/

residue

Wheat

Yield

(t/ha)

Tillage

effects

Residue

effects

Combined

effects

TPR-ZTW 5.33

TPR-ZTW+R 5.56 0.23

ZTDSR-ZTW 5.58 0.25 (P)

ZTDSR-ZTW+R 5.88 0.32 0.30 0.55

•Residue cover buffers the comfort zone- for roots , less energy losses•Better moisture-nutrient interactions for higher yields•Tillage-Residue interactions have synergistic (~0.5t/ha) on yield

Source: Jat et al (2009)

Source Analysis of variance (ANOVA)

Replication 0.071

Treatment (T) 0.004

Residue ( R) 0.002

T x R 0.879

Improving Photosynthetic Efficiency

Source: Jat et al (2012)-under publication

Variety Zero Tillage Conventional TillagePBW 343 3.87 + 0.78 (204) 3.18 + 0.72 (37)

PBW 502 4.36 + 0.80 (149) 3.78 + 0.71 (21)

HD 2733 4.45 + 0.81 (70) 4.08 + 0.74 (2)

HD 2824 4.82 + 0.77 (54) 3.82 + 0.65 (10)

PBW 154 3.35 + 0.51 (21) 1.89 + 0.11 (3)

PBW 373 3.13 + 0.59 (53) 2.49 + 0.30 (6)

OTHERS 3.74 + 0.96 (69) 2.54 + 0.79 (8)

Average 3.96 + 0.61 (620) 3.11 + 0.82 (87)

Genotype x Tillage Interactions:Eastern Gangetic Plains (2010-11)

Source: CSISA EGP hub reports (2011)

Direct drilling of Wheat (Nov-4, 2011)

Grain yield- 6.8 t/ha (Average of 20 acres)

Tillage and irrigation cost (% of total) in EGP: Effect of CA and irrigation on wheat yield

Management practices Wheat Yield (t/ha)

CT 1 irrigation 3.75 (+0.79)

CT 2 irrigation 3.82 (+0.81)

CT 3 irrigation 4.24 (+1.03)

CT 4 irrigation 5.50 (+0.10)

CT 5 irrigation 5.56 (+0.42)

ZT without residue 2 Irrigation

4.36 (+0.20)

ZT full residue 2 irrigation

5.19 (+0.29)

ZT partial residue 2 irrigation

4.87 (+0.26)

Source: RK Malik & CSISA hub teams of Bihar & Eastern UP (2010-11)

Source Analysis of variance (ANOVA)

Replication 0.560

Treatment (T) 0.001

Residue ( R) <0.001

T x R 0.121

CA and Stress management

Source: Jat et al (2012)-under publication

S. No.

Current Systems/practices Future Systems/Practices

1 Repeated tillage No-till/Drastically reduced till

2 Residue burning/removal Reside retention

3 Monoculture Efficient & economical rotations

4 Crop based management System based management

5 Ex-situ organic recycling In-situ organic recycling

6 Ad-hoc recommendation Site/location/situation specific recommendations

7 No water control Better water use

8 Fertilizer- broadcast Placement

Agronomic practices for adapting climate change effects- what we already have

Key Messages !

--The sun shines everywhere but, crops grows only where farmers has worked hard

--Opportunities are everywhere but, result comes only where people have worked hard

--God is everywhere but, his grace is felt one who serves with noble heart

CA, the Agriculture of the Future

– the Future of Agriculture