climate change & the uk policy response
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Climate Change & the UK Policy Response. David Muller, Vice Consul, Science and Technology British Consulate General, Atlanta. UK Commitment. “Climate Change is... the single most important issue that we face as a global community” Prime Minister Tony Blair April 27 2004 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Climate Change & the UK Policy Response
David Muller, Vice Consul, Science and TechnologyBritish Consulate General, Atlanta
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UK Commitment
• “Climate Change is... the single most important issue that we face as a global community”
Prime Minister Tony Blair April 27 2004
• “But frankly, we need to go beyond Kyoto. Science and technology is the way. Climate change, deforestation and the voracious drain on natural resources cannot be ignored. Unchecked, these forces will hinder the economic development of the most vulnerable nations first, and ultimately, all nations. We must show the world that we are willing to step up to these challenges around the world and in our own backyard”
Prime Minster to Congress July 18 2003
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UK Policy Context
– NECESSARY• Scientific Evidence• Environmental Damage• Energy Security
– ACHIEVABLE• Targets and Achievements• Portfolio Approach• Technological Options
– AFFORDABLE• Continued Economic Growth• Costs of Inaction
Is action NECESSARY?
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Scientific Consensus - Statement by National Academies
Statement by Eleven National Academies of Science (G8 plus China, Brazil, India), 7 June 2005
– “it is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activity”
– “the scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action. It is vital that all nations identify cost-effective steps that they can take now, to contribute to substantial and long-term reduction in net global greenhouse gas emissions”
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CO2 levels are already unprecedented in the last 400,000 years
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Recent impacts apparently due to human induced climate change
• Hottest 10 years on record all since 1991
• Extent of droughts and intensity of rainfall increasing since 1970s
• Widespread melting of glaciers
• Loss of Arctic sea ice and melting permafrost
• Rising sea levels
• Increased intensity of hurricanes?
• Thames Barrier - used once pa in 1980, 24 times in 2000
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How much climate change can we accept?
• Science suggests need to stabilise global greenhouse gases at maximum 550 parts per million (ppm) (Double pre-industrial levels)
• Even 550ppm results in serious climate change and implies a temperature increase of between 2 and 5 C.
• And this implies preventing the emission of about 7 Giga Tonnes of Carbon (GtC)/year by 2050
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Climate Change - the environmental imperative
• Climate change, if unchecked, will have dramatic impacts for human welfare and natural eco-systems.
• with global average temperature up by a further 1 - 2 C (2050?) we could expect to see
– Increased risks to ecosystems & species extinction – Increased incidence of heat waves, floods and droughts – Adverse impacts on human health e.g. increases in the potential
transmission of infectious diseases such as malaria and dengue fever– Increased risk of famine
• with temperatures up a further 3 - 4 C (2080?)– Ice-sheets at risk?– Climate system instability? – Disappearance of 1/3 to 1/2 of existing mountain glacier mass by 2100, with
implications for water supply to many cities
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UK Energy Security
• Source: DTI 2002
• The UK is currently a net exporter of oil (to 2010) but has just become a net importer of gas.
• demand for oil and gas is widely projected to rise by 2020 whilst domestic production is projected to fall.
• The UK needs to take a strategic approach to manage this transition effectively.
• Energy review announced to consider progress and challenges
UK Oil and Gas Demand and Production under Business as Usual Scenario
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40
60
80
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120
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2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Mill
ion
Tonn
es O
il Eq
uiva
lent
Gas Demand Gas Probable Production
Oil Demand Oil Probable Production
Is action ACHIEVABLE?
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The UK’s strategic response to climate change
• COMMITMENT - To put UK on a path to 60% reduction in GHG emissions
• CREDIBILTY - By putting in place concrete policies to achieve first steps now
• LEADERSHIP - In building consensus around the need for multilateral change and firm commitments to take action to reduce carbon emissions within the framework of the UNFCC.
• CO-OPERATION - With other countries willing to make a 60% commitment, on accelerating the development of low carbon technologies, with developing countries on energy efficiency
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UK Targets & Achievements
Targets• Kyoto: Emissions basket 12.5%
below 1990 levels by 2008-2010• Domestic: CO2 emissions 20%
below 1990 levels by 2010• Long term: CO2 emissions 60%
below 1990 levels by 2050
Achievements• Annual UK GHG emissions down
15.3%• But CO2 tougher, well down
overall but up 3% from 1997 (would have been up 8%)
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A Portfolio Approach
• Emissions Cap and Trade – EU Emissions Trading Scheme
• Climate Change Levy – Recycled to support energy efficiency & low carbon innovation– Exemptions for renewables
• Renewables Obligation– 10% by 2010, 15% by 2015, aiming for 20% by 2020
• Landfill Tax– Can be offset against environmental projects
• Planning Policy– Designed to promote and encourage development of renewables
• Transport Measures– Fiscal measures, fuel efficiency, 5% biofuels obligation
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Technological Options & Energy Efficiency
Technological Options– Combined heat & power (co-gen)– Renewable sources – wind, tidal, biomass, solar– Nuclear? (UK is currently considering new nuclear build)– Carbon capture and storage
Energy Efficiency– Around half of necessary CO2 reductions by 2020– Surest most cost-effective way to achieve all of the UK’s energy
goals– Simultaneously helps to reduce carbon emissions; improve energy
security; take people out of fuel poverty– Will save UK households and businesses over $5.25Bn per year on
their energy bills by 2010
Is action AFFORDABLE?
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De-linking growth in GDP, Primary Energy Consumption & Emissions
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Ind
ex (
1970=
100)
GDP
Primaryenergyconsumption(Mtoe)
Mt Carbon
• UK annual emissions down by 15.3% to 2002 • UK economy grew by 36% between 1990 and 2002.
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Cost of Inaction - Recent economic losses substantial
• European floods 2002– 37 deaths– $16bn direct costs
• European heat-wave 2003 – 26,000 deaths– $13.5bn direct costs
• UK floods, autumn 2000– Insurance pay-out $1.75bn
• UK hot summer of 1995 – Agriculture, water, retail,
insurance losses $1.75bn
Climate Change and Local Government
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Climate Change and Local Government
• 75% of the world’s energy is consumed in cities and differences made locally will make a large impact globally
London Initiatives
• Mayor has committed London to a 20% reduction of CO2 by 2010
• London Climate Change Agency – a municipally-owned entity that will enter into partnerships with private industry to deliver low and zero-carbon projects, services and technologies
• Other London policies include: Improved land management and development, congestion charging, improved mass transit
Conclusion
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Conclusion
• Unrestrained climate change presents unacceptable risks• Evidence is very strong with very broad scientific consensus• Global control of greenhouse gas emissions essential to stabilise
concentrations at a safe level • Need concerted research effort internationally to improve
understanding of impacts, response options, costs etc. Risks may be greater than we think.
• UK experience and forecasts shows that the shift to a low carbon economy is very affordable: opportunity not cost.
• ...NECESSARY, ACHIEVABLE, AFFORDABLE
