SBSTA 42 Side Event on ‘Filling the Evidence Gap: Linking Agricultural and Climate Change Science and Policy in Africa’

Kevin Coffey SBSAT 42 June 2015

Expanding the Contribution of

Early Warning to Climate-

Resilient Agricultural

Development in Africa

In an era of more frequent and more extreme weather events and climate

shocks, enhanced early warning systems provide a key opportunity to curb

erosion of development progress in rural sectors. Recommendations for

strengthening existing systems and developing news ones are:

Six Recommendations

1) Establish objective rules for early response to early warning information, based

on parametric triggers, contingency plans and contingency finance mechanisms

2) Broaden the range of users of early warning information and integrate into

development activities

3) Early warning systems should incorporate systematic feedback from users, and

change with the needs of stakeholders and new technology

4) Invest in the quality, accessibility and integration of data

5) Take greater advantage of seasonal prediction to increase the lead-time

6) Factor uncertainty into risk analysis, communication, and decision processes

Establish objective rules for early response to early warning

information, based on parametric triggers, contingency plans and contingency finance mechanisms

Recommendation 1

Innovative solutions include:

- Using predetermined triggers

that are connected to specific

actions (example: FoodSECuRe

program)

- Contingency finance

mechanisms (example: Africa

Risk Pool)

Decision processes surrounding food security management are often a greater

constraint to early action than early warning information itself

Broaden the range of users of early warning information and integrate into development activities

Recommendation 2

- Effective community level

early warning leads to early

and effective action

- Sub-national institutions

with the right information can

facilitate early community

response

- Too much focus at higher levels. The best analysis is stuck at national,

regional and global levels

- Mobilizing national gov’ts and donors is important. However:

Early warning systems should incorporate systematic

feedback from users, and change with the needs of stakeholders and new technology

Recommendation 3

Early warning systems should

always be “works in progress,”

responding to regular user

feedback

• Build feedback into the system

• Clear M&E strategy

• Users are the client

Invest in the quality, accessibility and integration of data

Recommendation 4

• Investing in data may include efforts at data

recovery, digitalization, and cleaning

• Advanced knowledge management systems

allow for greater access to data and analysis

• Break down information silos and focus on

integrating data (i.e. agriculture and

meteorological data) to provide decision-makers

with tailored analysis

• Example: ENACTS - State of the art historical

rainfall and temperature reconstruction

STATION

BLENDED

SATELLITE

Take greater advantage of seasonal prediction to increase the lead-time

Recommendation 5

• Early season assessments in Africa typically take a more ad-hoc

approach to incorporating seasonal prediction

• Subjective assessments are difficult to calibrate in probabilistic terms and

can’t be used for triggering early action based on objective thresholds

• New methods are available to integrate

seasonal climate forecast information into

established agromet monitoring tools

• Example: Crop water satisfaction

indexes and crop simulation models

(CRAFT Tool)

Factor uncertainty into risk analysis, communication, and decision processes

Recommendation 6

• Users of EWS will lose faith in the information

provided if uncertainty is not effectively

communicated

• For determining appropriate responses, cost

benefit analysis can incorporate uncertainty and

be used to set thresholds for action

• For information at a long lead-time, e.g., near

the start of the growing season, uncertainty of

early warning information should be factored into

communication, in probabilistic terms

Thank you!

Please See the CCAFS SBSTA Submission on Early Warning for More Information

SBSTA 42 Side Event on ‘Filling the Evidence Gap: Linking Agricultural and Climate Change Science and Policy in Africa’

Julian Smith International Development Lead

Fera

Impact of climate change on African agriculture: focus on pests and diseases

Planning for a vibrant African agricultural economy Agriculture is seen as a good investment for poverty reduction

What will a successful Africa look like in 20 years time

Increased formal food systems!

Production and trade fully integrated with the global food system!

Responding to export and local food opportunity!

Overview The sum of many moving parts

Climate change

Progressive

trends

Climate change

Erratic shocks

Markets

Farmers

Policy

Land under

farming

Externalities

eg population

growth,

distribution and

diets

New markets and

trade pathways

Land-use change

Genetic

resources

Environment

biota

Pests

Endemic/exotic

Technology Pest spread, new pest

entry, new pests

Improved cultivars

eg Drought resistant

Environment biota

change

Improved livestock

eg ????

Changed land-use Productivity, farmer choices & changed farming systems

Projected changes in crops for Sub-Sahara Africa for 8 crops (left) and for beans at the continent level (right; green is positive and red negative)

Context

In the context of climate change, how will

farmers respond to serve local and

export markets?

Climate change consequence & outcome

The suitability of land will change, for

crops, livestock and aqua-culture

We need to predict these changes to

support adaptive action

Crop, livestock and aquatic pests Increased spread, new entry and new

Context

Africa is with a history of big pest events, that

cause both food insecurity and discourage

private sector investment

Weak human and physical infrastructure for

agricultural services

Global trade, human movement new and

changing food markets present heightened risk

of pest entry

Geographic isolation of pests

Climate change consequence & outcome

Increased rates of pest cycling and spread of

endemic pests

Increased rates of pest entry events and new

pest establishments

Increased risk of new pests from natural biota

(plants and wildlife)

The increases distribution and severity of Coconut Lethal Yellow Disease in Mozambique has been related to temperature difference

Climate change – trend impacts Livestock and East Coast Fever

East Coast Fever (ECF)

Prevalent across the eastern, central, and southern Africa

Transmitted by Rhipicephalus appendiculatus (Brown ear tick).

Killing at ~1 million cattle/year

28 million cattle at risk

Small-holders are most at risk

Climate change consequence & outcome

The vector will

− Increase in prevalence in cooler, wetter northern and eastern Cape provinces of South Africa, Botswana, Zambia and eastern DRC

− Decrease in prevalence in warmer western arid regions of Africa

Among 65 animal diseases identified as most important to poor people, 58 % are climate-sensitive.

Climate change – trend impacts Crops and Potato tuber moth

Potato tuber moth

Potato rank as the 5th most important crop for developing countries (159 MT, CIP)

Potato tuber moth (Phthorimaea operculella ) is a major pest of field crops and stored potato

Climate change consequence & outcome

Extended range in mountain regions of North and South Africa.

Increased prevalence and damage potential in all potato-producing countries of Africa

A Pest Distribution and Risk Atlas for Africa is in preparation (Kroschel et al 2015)

Climate change – trend impacts Aquaculture and Epizootic Ulcerative Syndrome

Epizootic Ulcerative Syndrome (EUS)

Aquaculture is in its infancy in Africa – but huge potential

Aquaculture experiences higher cumulative mortalities in tropics than cooler regions

Climate change consequence & outcome

The spread of EUS up and downstream of the Zambezi river

This would impact on fish catches in the delta

Climate change – shock impacts Drought tolerance and Maize Lethal Necrosis

Maize Lethal Necrosis (MLN)

A viral disease of maize, first reported in Kenya in 2011, and now widespread across East Africa

Seed transmitted

All main cultivars of maize are susceptible to MLN

Maize is the staple crop for Africa

Climate change consequence & outcome

A major breeding programme for drought tolerant maize is now at risk as all varieties in development are susceptible to MLN

A solution to MLN and available to acceptable in

Maize Lethal Necrosis a new entry pest for Africa is described as a fire by farmers

Climate change – shock impacts Failed harvests and new trade pathways

New Trade routes

Frequency of extreme weather events will increase and harvests will fail more frequently

Markets will adapt via new import trade pathways

New pest threats will be associated with these pathways

Pests of key crops are geographically isolated within and between continents

Climate change consequence

The likelihood of pests gaining entry to new regions is increased by new trade pathways, especially when these are responding to a shock and not with a proper risk assessment

Banana Xanthomas Wilt has spread across East Africa but remains absent from other regions of Africa and the world

Recommendations for action Embedding resilience into future systems

Enhance capacity of regional, national and local

organizations

Promote multi country coordination approaches

Improve data quality and quantity

Support pre-emptive breeding

Invest in resilience of production systems

Invest in research and development

Thank you

For more information: See CCAFS Info Note:

Impact of climate change on African agriculture: focus on pests and diseases

SBSTA 42 Side Event on ‘Filling the Evidence Gap: Linking Agricultural and Climate Change Science and Policy in Africa’

Enabling research-to-policy dialogue for

adaptation to climate change in Africa: The

AfricaInteract experience. By

Dr. Abdulai Jalloh,

Programme Manager, NRM

CORAF/WECARD

Presentation at the CCAFS side event : Filling the Evidence Gap:

Linking Agricultural and Climate Change Science and Policy in Africa

June 6, 2015,

Bonn, Germany

Introduction

• Diversified pace and extent of climate change and its impacts on different sub-regions, sectors, nations, and communities in Africa.

• Prevailing uncertainty makes policy decisions more complex

• Need for Africa to build its knowledge and analytical base and to strengthen the capacity of institutions to tackle climate change challenges.

• Need for science to inform policy

• Promote and support effective documentation and sharing of information to improve climate change adaptation policy in Africa

• Identify policy gaps and promote the integration of climate change research into development policies, strategies, programs and projects at continental and sub-regional levels

AfricaInteract: Enabling research-policy- dialogue for adaptation to climate change

Key activities

• Organize strategic workshops and

round tables involving research

scientists and decision-makers

• Train target groups on key issues to

enable them to effectively analyze

climate change issues and negotiate

effectively

• Provide support for identified

champions to attend international

conferences and effectively articulate

Africa’s position on climate change

Review of research and policy • Sectors: Agriculture, health and

urban areas

• Water and gender as cross cutting issues.

Relevant information to improve evidence-based policy making aimed at enhancing livelihoods and

protecting populations vulnerable to climate change.

Findings – research/Poilcy

• Rapidly growing body of evidence on impacts of climate change on agriculture, particularly crop systems

• Increasing evidence of autonomous adaptation by crop farmers, pastoralists and fisherfolk, using local knowledge

• Much adaptation happens despite lack of institutional support, but growing focus around ‘climate-smart’ farming systems

• Impacts of climate change and variability on agriculture is moderated by political, economic and social factors

Agriculture: key recommendations

• Adaptation measures should be tested for contribution to resilience across entire food chain

• Further research to field test promising ‘climate smart’ agricultural technologies and practices

• Need to tackle root causes for vulnerability in the agricultural sector such as resource access and property rights, closely linked with gender concerns

• Need more focus on fisheries and pastoralist systems as compared to crop farming systems

• Need for better coordination and coherence between agriculture and environment ministries

Key achievements

More than 1500 key stakeholders including policymakers, scientists, development workers and farmers linked

At lest 100 high level decision makers/decision influencing positions have increased appreciation of the need for informed policy formulation

More than 100 senior scientists in sub Saharan Africa have increased awareness and appreciation of the need for effective linkage with policy makers

Key research and policy gaps and

options identified; policy options

proposed

AGNES - African scientists linked to and supporting the African Group of

Negotiators

Challenges/Lessons Learned • Identifying and mobilizing

the real key stakeholders

• Targeting key institutions

• Quality and packaging of evidence is crucial

• Flexibility in approach

Thank you/Merci

http://africainteract.coraf.org/en/

SBSTA 42 Side Event on ‘Filling the Evidence Gap: Linking Agricultural and Climate Change Science and Policy in Africa’

Questions

Answers &

Launch of the CCAFS Info Notes and

UNFCCC Guidance to Negotiations

Toolkit

Dr. James Kinyangi

New briefs highlight critical agriculture issues in the UN climate talks

How will climate change impact smallholder farmers, fishers and pastoralists, and what are some of their options for adapting?

DOWNLOAD THE INFO NOTES

SUMMARIZING THE SUBMISSIONS

Coffey K, Haile M, Halperin M, Wamukoya G, Hansen J, Kinyangi J, Tesfaye

Fantaye K, Dinesh D. 2015. Improving early warning systems for

agricultural resilience in Africa.

Dinesh D, Bett B, Boone R, Grace D, Kinyangi J, Lindahl J, Mohan CV,

Ramirez-Villegas J, Robinson R, Rosenstock T, Smith J and Thornton P.

2015. Impact of climate change on African agriculture: focus on pests

and diseases.

DOWNLOAD THE FULL SUBMISSIONS

AND BACKGROUND PAPERS

Coffey K, Menghestab H, Halperin M, Wamukoya G, Hansen J, Kinyangi J, Tesfaye

Fantaye K. 2015. Expanding the contribution of early warning to climate-resilient

agricultural development in Africa. CCAFS Working Paper no. 115

Grace D, Bett B, Lindahl J, Robinson T. 2015. Climate and Livestock Disease:

assessing the vulnerability of agricultural systems to livestock pests under

climate change scenarios. CCAFS Working Paper No. 116.

Mohan CV. 2015. Climate Change and Aquatic Animal Disease. CCAFS Working

Paper No. 117.

Ramirez-Villegas J, Thornton PK. 2015. Climate change impacts on African crop

production. CCAFS Working Paper No. 119.

Smith J. 2015. Crops, crop pests and climate change –why Africa needs to better

prepared. CCAFS Working Paper No. 114.

Thornton PK, Boone RB, Ramirez-Villegas J. 2015. Climate change impacts on

livestock. CCAFS Working Paper No. 120.

LEARN MORE ABOUT AGRICULTURE

IN THE NEGOTIATIONS

SBSTA 42 Side Event on ‘Filling the Evidence Gap: Linking Agricultural and Climate Change Science and Policy in Africa’